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SystemSystem Posts: 12,639
edited February 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » YouGov has LEAVE lead up to 9% in survey taken immediately after this week’s key referendum talks

So far in the referendum campaign members of the YouGov have been tending to be more in favour of BREXIT than those most other online firms and certainly there’s a massive gap between YouGov and the EURef phone polls.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,104
    edited February 2016
    First like leave.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    2nd like Man City...
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Hope this is accurate, expect it isn't :neutral:
  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 0
    One for Malc:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/12141257/Imagine-the-mess-an-independent-Scotland-would-be-in-right-now.html
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Plato_Says said:

    Hope this is accurate, expect it isn't :neutral:

    An internet poll? Better off reading tea leaves!
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,104
    Plato_Says said:

    Hope this is accurate, expect it isn't :neutral:

    It might be that Remain has nothing to worry about, but the trend seems to be towards Leave at the moment.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,393
    Last May, Yougov had remain 10% ahead.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,359
    Not that it matters this far out, but the latest 'Leave.EU' poster 'No Pain No Gain' is striking totally the wrong note and playing into all 'Remain's arguments. Utterly inept.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Do you Gov believe their own results??.. Since the GE disaster, who knows what is correct.. Frankly, I just do not believe this poll.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,359
    Plato_Says said:

    Hope this is accurate, expect it isn't :neutral:

    Yep.
  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 0
    edited February 2016
    Dave seems to me to be falling into the trap most Tory leaders do of deciding, ultimately, to put himself on the side of the establishment not the side of middle England. They don't learn do they? I think Dave wants to be remembered as the great PM who got us a better deal in the EU. He has failed. Look at the blancmange he served up this week and the press reaction to it. What he'll actually be remembered for is as the PM who conned us into shackling ourselves to a corpse. The EU is never going to become a dynamic, competitive, vibrant democratic, outward looking and culturally confident place. Just look at our neighbours across the channel! Dave is either very naïve or very stupid or very cynical.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,365
    There was no Tory slump nor a UKIP surge in this poll. Which I find odd and interesting.

    Westminster voting intention:
    CON: 39% (-)
    LAB: 29% (-1)
    UKIP: 18% (+1)
    LDEM: 6% (-)
    GRN: 3% (-)
    (via YouGov / 03 - 04 Feb)
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,365
    MikeSmithson said:

    betting reaction has been relatively muted as seen in the latest Betfair data.

    That's because every serious political punter is balls deep on the American race isn't it ?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,104
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    There was no Tory slump nor a UKIP surge in this poll. Which I find odd and interesting.

    Westminster voting intention:
    CON: 39% (-)
    LAB: 29% (-1)
    UKIP: 18% (+1)
    LDEM: 6% (-)
    GRN: 3% (-)
    (via YouGov / 03 - 04 Feb)

    I think the only way Ukip would benefit is if we vote to Leave and Cameron and the rest of the Cabinet decide to ignore the result.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,650
    TSE - Did you catch Charles' post on the previous thread?
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,842
    FPT: From Twitter, can't yet find a 'proper' source, but it's reported the Swedish aid worker who was murdered by a migrant has had her memorial verboten, in case it offends migrants.

    If that turns out to be true (and the mainstream media is, in this regard, sometimes less reliable than Twitter) then it's the kind of insanity that could credibly lead to a real rise of extremist politicians. If the cuddly mainstream won't acknowledge reality and the genuine concerns people have, voters, at least in part, will turn to those who will.

    On-topic: it'll be interesting to see how accurate the polling is compared to the General Election. I'm not surprised more people are backing Leave, though. Prime Minister Miliband's negotiation has not exceeded expectations.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,365
    RobD said:

    TSE - Did you catch Charles' post on the previous thread?

    I did. I'm sending him a message now.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,800
    The immigration crisis couldn't have come at a worse time for Remain.

    You also have to consider that the immigration crisis will only get worse and worse, as the EU has little to no solutions to stop it, and they won't for years and years.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,650
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    RobD said:

    TSE - Did you catch Charles' post on the previous thread?

    I did. I'm sending him a message now.
    Jolly good!
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    Good morning all.

    Could be a voodoo poll. I'm reassured that many Brits can still recognise a crock of shit when it's exhibited to them, even when that's by a jolly nice chap like Cameron.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,393
    tlg86 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    There was no Tory slump nor a UKIP surge in this poll. Which I find odd and interesting.

    Westminster voting intention:
    CON: 39% (-)
    LAB: 29% (-1)
    UKIP: 18% (+1)
    LDEM: 6% (-)
    GRN: 3% (-)
    (via YouGov / 03 - 04 Feb)

    I think the only way Ukip would benefit is if we vote to Leave and Cameron and the rest of the Cabinet decide to ignore the result.
    I think UKIP will benefit in May's elections, as the EU will be constantly in the news.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,104
    Sean_F said:

    tlg86 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    There was no Tory slump nor a UKIP surge in this poll. Which I find odd and interesting.

    Westminster voting intention:
    CON: 39% (-)
    LAB: 29% (-1)
    UKIP: 18% (+1)
    LDEM: 6% (-)
    GRN: 3% (-)
    (via YouGov / 03 - 04 Feb)

    I think the only way Ukip would benefit is if we vote to Leave and Cameron and the rest of the Cabinet decide to ignore the result.
    I think UKIP will benefit in May's elections, as the EU will be constantly in the news.
    This is their last round of locals where it will look like they are making a lot of gains - so they should make sure they enjoy it whilst it lasts!
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,289
    I can't copy and paste it for some reason - but posters should be assured that Carlotta and I have comprehensively debunked the 'economics will win it for Remain' theory at the end of the previous thread.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,365
    Anyhoo. The big polling news overnight was the Tories being second in Scotland.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Good Morning all.
    I'm back and still Trumping.
  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 0
    George Osborne seems to have become a bit tone deaf politically just lately - which may well impact the Leave vote. The front page of City A.M. is a warning to him not to become 'the ghost of Gordon' and further shaft UK private pensions in the upcoming budget. If he does I think he'll have lost middle England. Ozzy may be one of the two candidates served up to the membership for new Tory leader - but it won't be him that gets the nod. What's more if Ozzy does get greedy with the man on the Clapham Omnibus' money that man will be more likely to vote against the establishment (which seems delighted to ignore the views of the plebs). Voters everywhere, from Iowa to Islington, are fed up with simply being ignored. I think the budget could, if Ozzy's not careful, stoke an anti-establishment and anti-EU mood.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    There was no Tory slump nor a UKIP surge in this poll. Which I find odd and interesting.

    Westminster voting intention:
    CON: 39% (-)
    LAB: 29% (-1)
    UKIP: 18% (+1)
    LDEM: 6% (-)
    GRN: 3% (-)
    (via YouGov / 03 - 04 Feb)

    Maybe Eurosceptic Tories do not see UKIP within the Westminster context. They are in a mess right now and not remotely close to presenting themselves as an alternative, so why would people say they would vote for them in a General Election?
  • eekeek Posts: 31,008
    foxinsoxuk said:

    Plato_Says said:

    Hope this is accurate, expect it isn't :neutral:

    An internet poll? Better off reading tea leaves!
    That depends. If you are looking at trend rather than absolute numbers an internet poll is utterly fine...
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    There was no Tory slump nor a UKIP surge in this poll. Which I find odd and interesting.

    Westminster voting intention:
    CON: 39% (-)
    LAB: 29% (-1)
    UKIP: 18% (+1)
    LDEM: 6% (-)
    GRN: 3% (-)
    (via YouGov / 03 - 04 Feb)

    To put those figures into perspective... This from the same stage in the last parliament:
    CON: 36%
    LAB: 42%
    LDEM: 10%
    (via YouGov / 03 - 04 Feb 2011)

    Miliband had a 6 point lead in 2011, and Corbyn is 10 points behind right now...
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,289
    notme said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    There was no Tory slump nor a UKIP surge in this poll. Which I find odd and interesting.

    Westminster voting intention:
    CON: 39% (-)
    LAB: 29% (-1)
    UKIP: 18% (+1)
    LDEM: 6% (-)
    GRN: 3% (-)
    (via YouGov / 03 - 04 Feb)

    To put those figures into perspective... This from the same stage in the last parliament:
    CON: 36%
    LAB: 42%
    LDEM: 10%
    (via YouGov / 03 - 04 Feb 2011)

    Miliband had a 6 point lead in 2011, and Corbyn is 10 points behind right now...
    Corbynism sweeps the nation...
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Morris_Dancer said:

    FPT: From Twitter, can't yet find a 'proper' source, but it's reported the Swedish aid worker who was murdered by a migrant has had her memorial verboten, in case it offends migrants.

    If that turns out to be true (and the mainstream media is, in this regard, sometimes less reliable than Twitter) then it's the kind of insanity that could credibly lead to a real rise of extremist politicians. If the cuddly mainstream won't acknowledge reality and the genuine concerns people have, voters, at least in part, will turn to those who will.

    On-topic: it'll be interesting to see how accurate the polling is compared to the General Election. I'm not surprised more people are backing Leave, though. Prime Minister Miliband's negotiation has not exceeded expectations.

    Well said, Morris, I am afraid much of the european media is following in the same cause, especially in Germany. Twisting in the popular wind.

    A good article from Phillip Collins emphasises this in this mornings Times.
    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/columnists/article4683054.ece
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    Mortimer said:

    I can't copy and paste it for some reason - but posters should be assured that Carlotta and I have comprehensively debunked the 'economics will win it for Remain' theory at the end of the previous thread.

    Not imo. The economy may not win it for Remain but they would be nuts not to centre on it. It is what swing voters care about more than anything.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    notme said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    There was no Tory slump nor a UKIP surge in this poll. Which I find odd and interesting.

    Westminster voting intention:
    CON: 39% (-)
    LAB: 29% (-1)
    UKIP: 18% (+1)
    LDEM: 6% (-)
    GRN: 3% (-)
    (via YouGov / 03 - 04 Feb)

    To put those figures into perspective... This from the same stage in the last parliament:
    CON: 36%
    LAB: 42%
    LDEM: 10%
    (via YouGov / 03 - 04 Feb 2011)

    Miliband had a 6 point lead in 2011, and Corbyn is 10 points behind right now...
    Didn't methodology change post 2015, so we can't compare these polls? Chances are the 2011 figure overestimated Labour support much as it did on polling day.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Jonathan said:

    notme said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    There was no Tory slump nor a UKIP surge in this poll. Which I find odd and interesting.

    Westminster voting intention:
    CON: 39% (-)
    LAB: 29% (-1)
    UKIP: 18% (+1)
    LDEM: 6% (-)
    GRN: 3% (-)
    (via YouGov / 03 - 04 Feb)

    To put those figures into perspective... This from the same stage in the last parliament:
    CON: 36%
    LAB: 42%
    LDEM: 10%
    (via YouGov / 03 - 04 Feb 2011)

    Miliband had a 6 point lead in 2011, and Corbyn is 10 points behind right now...
    Didn't methodology change post 2015, so we can't compare these polls? Chances are the 2011 figure overestimated Labour support much as it did on polling day.
    .. and still is
  • eekeek Posts: 31,008
    The constant drip feeding of news like this from Germany and elsewhere regarding migrants is not going to help one bit..

    http://www.presseportal.de/blaulicht/pm/12415/3243821

    18 sexual offences (sexual assault through to rape) reported last night in Cologne..
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    SquareRoot said:

    Jonathan said:

    notme said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    There was no Tory slump nor a UKIP surge in this poll. Which I find odd and interesting.

    Westminster voting intention:
    CON: 39% (-)
    LAB: 29% (-1)
    UKIP: 18% (+1)
    LDEM: 6% (-)
    GRN: 3% (-)
    (via YouGov / 03 - 04 Feb)

    To put those figures into perspective... This from the same stage in the last parliament:
    CON: 36%
    LAB: 42%
    LDEM: 10%
    (via YouGov / 03 - 04 Feb 2011)

    Miliband had a 6 point lead in 2011, and Corbyn is 10 points behind right now...
    Didn't methodology change post 2015, so we can't compare these polls? Chances are the 2011 figure overestimated Labour support much as it did on polling day.
    .. and still is
    Is that your opinion or is there any evidence for that?
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,233
    edited February 2016
    foxinsoxuk said:

    Plato_Says said:

    Hope this is accurate, expect it isn't :neutral:

    An internet poll? Better off reading tea leaves!
    Right or not, front page treatment in The Times will reassure many that they wouldn't be joining the fruitcakes by voting out.
  • PaulyPauly Posts: 897
    Leave.EU have overtaken the Labour Party in number of likes on Facebook.
    I wish people would stop reporting on the campaign infighting as if it was a defence of the EU. This social network campaign has considerable reach so far, and the campaigning period hasn't properly started yet.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 28,149
    My sympathy to TSE.

    For all those who receive bad medical news remember:

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wilko_Johnson#Cancer

  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    I still say that the referendum will most likely be delayed till the last possible moment.

    If the EU heads of government refuse to accept even these meagre points that Cameron has raised in bogus hope, even the most duped will be able to see through this.

    The main hope for remain is that many people will vote that way due to fear of change or hope of advancement for themselves, regardless of the general good.
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Jonathan said:

    SquareRoot said:

    Jonathan said:

    notme said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    There was no Tory slump nor a UKIP surge in this poll. Which I find odd and interesting.

    Westminster voting intention:
    CON: 39% (-)
    LAB: 29% (-1)
    UKIP: 18% (+1)
    LDEM: 6% (-)
    GRN: 3% (-)
    (via YouGov / 03 - 04 Feb)

    To put those figures into perspective... This from the same stage in the last parliament:
    CON: 36%
    LAB: 42%
    LDEM: 10%
    (via YouGov / 03 - 04 Feb 2011)

    Miliband had a 6 point lead in 2011, and Corbyn is 10 points behind right now...
    Didn't methodology change post 2015, so we can't compare these polls? Chances are the 2011 figure overestimated Labour support much as it did on polling day.
    .. and still is
    Is that your opinion or is there any evidence for that?
    Just listen to the ordinary man and woman speak about Corbyn. 25% seems generous.. but in answer to your question, its my opinion./gut feel.
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    eek..I smell a riot forming in Cologne..either that or the German men have lost it..
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,842
    Mr. Eagles, my sympathies. Hope things turn out as well as they can.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,233
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Anyhoo. The big polling news overnight was the Tories being second in Scotland.

    Just catching up...very sorry to hear your news...hoping with you for the best outcome.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    edited February 2016
    TSE - Chin up old fruit and best wishes. I'll even forgive the Poch=Reckless post. Well maybe.

    I see Sol's been reaching out to Spurs fans... and legends.

    You would thinkCampbell would stop commenting on Spurs no one is interested in yourcomments. @HKane @ericdier @AlderweireldTob are leaders
    — Graham Roberts (@GrahamRoberts4) February 4, 2016

    The fact you left the way you did you will never be remembered like players @LedleyKing who is a real Spurs hero.
    — Graham Roberts (@GrahamRoberts4) February 4, 2016
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,365
    Leading figures from Britain’s main opposition parties are joining forces to secure reform of the voting system “by 2021” and will discuss strategy at a conference next week.

    Pro-reform delegates will gather in the capital on Monday and discuss how to build a broad alliance to achieve proportional representation straight after the next election.

    The meeting will be attended by Natalie Bennett, the leader of the Green Party; Hywel Williams, the Westminster leader of Plaid Cymru; and Diane James, Ukip’s Home Affairs spokesperson.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/cross-party-alliance-draws-up-plan-to-secure-proportional-representation-by-2021-a6853811.html
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,842
    Mr. Eagles, it's despicable to try and change the voting system without a referendum. It's gerrymandertastic.

    Unsurprising Chairman Corbyn and Mao are in favour. UKIP have only their own serial incompetence to blame for their consecutive electoral failures.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,650
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Eagles, it's despicable to try and change the voting system without a referendum. It's gerrymandertastic.

    Agreed.
  • agingjbagingjb Posts: 76
    "Middle England". Who would this group, whoever they are, vote for (other than the Tories) in sufficient numbers to secure a significant number of MPs?
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,800
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Leading figures from Britain’s main opposition parties are joining forces to secure reform of the voting system “by 2021” and will discuss strategy at a conference next week.

    Pro-reform delegates will gather in the capital on Monday and discuss how to build a broad alliance to achieve proportional representation straight after the next election.

    The meeting will be attended by Natalie Bennett, the leader of the Green Party; Hywel Williams, the Westminster leader of Plaid Cymru; and Diane James, Ukip’s Home Affairs spokesperson.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/cross-party-alliance-draws-up-plan-to-secure-proportional-representation-by-2021-a6853811.html

    Coalition of the losers and loonies.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,365
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    TSE - Chin up old fruit and best wishes. I'll even forgive the Poch=Reckless post. Well maybe.

    I see Sol's been reaching out to Spurs fans... and legends.

    You would thinkCampbell would stop commenting on Spurs no one is interested in yourcomments. @HKane @ericdier @AlderweireldTob are leaders
    — Graham Roberts (@GrahamRoberts4) February 4, 2016

    The fact you left the way you did you will never be remembered like players @LedleyKing who is a real Spurs hero.
    — Graham Roberts (@GrahamRoberts4) February 4, 2016

    Let's all laugh at Reckless again. From yesterday.

    UKIP have been arguing among themselves once again, this time in Wales. Welsh ‘Kippers want the right to choose their own Welsh Assembly candidates, and have been fighting against senior figures who want to install Mark Reckless and Neil Hamilton at the top of the list. In a blow to Reckless and Hamilton’s chances, UKIP’s NEC has ruled in favour of the Welsh membership, who will now have the decisive say. Bad news for the centrally imposed candidates who were not popular among local members

    http://order-order.com/2016/02/04/blow-for-reckless-and-hamilton/
  • eekeek Posts: 31,008
    Wanderer said:

    Mortimer said:

    I can't copy and paste it for some reason - but posters should be assured that Carlotta and I have comprehensively debunked the 'economics will win it for Remain' theory at the end of the previous thread.

    Not imo. The economy may not win it for Remain but they would be nuts not to centre on it. It is what swing voters care about more than anything.
    The idea that the economy dominates elections is true if people have nothing else to worry about..... Sadly this time I think something else will dominate people's thoughts....
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    I cannot see the benefit of any UKIP mixing with the Greens or Corbyn, for whatever purpose.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,365
    edited February 2016
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Eagles, it's despicable to try and change the voting system without a referendum. It's gerrymandertastic.

    Unsurprising Chairman Corbyn and Mao are in favour. UKIP have only their own serial incompetence to blame for their consecutive electoral failures.

    Indeed a coalition of the losers.

    If Douglas Carswell hadn't defected, then in May, UKIP would have had nearly four million votes and no MPs.

    That's a damning indictment of UKIP's targeting and ground game, Farage should reflect on that if he wants to lead Leave
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,963
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Leading figures from Britain’s main opposition parties are joining forces to secure reform of the voting system “by 2021” and will discuss strategy at a conference next week.

    Pro-reform delegates will gather in the capital on Monday and discuss how to build a broad alliance to achieve proportional representation straight after the next election.

    The meeting will be attended by Natalie Bennett, the leader of the Green Party; Hywel Williams, the Westminster leader of Plaid Cymru; and Diane James, Ukip’s Home Affairs spokesperson.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/cross-party-alliance-draws-up-plan-to-secure-proportional-representation-by-2021-a6853811.html

    LOL, here we go again.

    They all want reform until they get in to government, them miraculously they stop.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,365
    edited February 2016
    On the flip side Dave won't be too upset if UKIP and Corbyn's Labour make an alliance and pact.

    He can tar them both with the same extreme and loony brush.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,842
    Mr. Eagles, reflection and self-assessment are not Farage's strong suit.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Leading figures from Britain’s main opposition parties are joining forces to secure reform of the voting system “by 2021” and will discuss strategy at a conference next week.

    Pro-reform delegates will gather in the capital on Monday and discuss how to build a broad alliance to achieve proportional representation straight after the next election.

    The meeting will be attended by Natalie Bennett, the leader of the Green Party; Hywel Williams, the Westminster leader of Plaid Cymru; and Diane James, Ukip’s Home Affairs spokesperson.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/cross-party-alliance-draws-up-plan-to-secure-proportional-representation-by-2021-a6853811.html

    Their policies are utterly repellent to the voters so they blame the voting system.
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    O_o

    Yowser
    notme said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    There was no Tory slump nor a UKIP surge in this poll. Which I find odd and interesting.

    Westminster voting intention:
    CON: 39% (-)
    LAB: 29% (-1)
    UKIP: 18% (+1)
    LDEM: 6% (-)
    GRN: 3% (-)
    (via YouGov / 03 - 04 Feb)

    To put those figures into perspective... This from the same stage in the last parliament:
    CON: 36%
    LAB: 42%
    LDEM: 10%
    (via YouGov / 03 - 04 Feb 2011)

    Miliband had a 6 point lead in 2011, and Corbyn is 10 points behind right now...
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,902
    The two most interesting features of a 'Leave' vote would be the resignation of Dave and half his cabinet and the certainty of another Scottish referendum which would likely produce the opposite result to the last one.

    My fear is that from becoming gradually more outward looking Endgland would revert to it's old xenophobia self again and the new cosmopolitan spirit that 's emanated from London would start to disappear.

    I'm in France at the moment and that cosmopolitan feeling has always been here but it was much later coming to England and it would be a great sadness if we lost it
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    If you ALEURP the poll then that puts remain on 55% to Leave's 45%.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,550
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Leading figures from Britain’s main opposition parties are joining forces to secure reform of the voting system “by 2021” and will discuss strategy at a conference next week.

    Pro-reform delegates will gather in the capital on Monday and discuss how to build a broad alliance to achieve proportional representation straight after the next election.

    The meeting will be attended by Natalie Bennett, the leader of the Green Party; Hywel Williams, the Westminster leader of Plaid Cymru; and Diane James, Ukip’s Home Affairs spokesperson.

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/cross-party-alliance-draws-up-plan-to-secure-proportional-representation-by-2021-a6853811.html

    Talk about coalition of the losers.

    Also, really sorry to hear about your troubles from the previous thread. There have been some breakthroughs in stem cell research for optic nerve regeneration recently so don't lose all hope.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,963
    edited February 2016
    Roger said:

    The two most interesting features of a 'Leave' vote would be the resignation of Dave and half his cabinet and the certainty of another Scottish referendum which would likely produce the opposite result to the last one.

    My fear is that from becoming gradually more outward looking Endgland would revert to it's old xenophobia self again and the new cosmopolitan spirit that 's emanated from London would start to disappear.

    I'm in France at the moment and that cosmopolitan feeling has always been here but it was much later coming to England and it would be a great sadness if we lost it

    Typical small mindedness Roger. Only Paris is vaguely cosmopolitan. Most of rural France is decidely introspective, the kind of place where the echangistes sleep with their other sister.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,550
    MikeK said:

    I cannot see the benefit of any UKIP mixing with the Greens or Corbyn, for whatever purpose.

    Indeed. If UKIP want to campaign for PR, or something like that, they are better off doing it by themselves. Getting on to a stage with Labour/Corbyn and the Greens is a poor idea.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 27,104
    Roger said:

    I'm in France at the moment and that cosmopolitan feeling has always been here but it was much later coming to England and it would be a great sadness if we lost it

    The irony is that Hollande's policies have contributed to many of his countrymen and women fleeing to xenophobic England!
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 44,233
    edited February 2016
    Roger said:

    The two most interesting features of a 'Leave' vote would be the resignation of Dave and half his cabinet and the certainty of another Scottish referendum which would likely produce the opposite result to the last one.

    My fear is that from becoming gradually more outward looking Endgland would revert to it's old xenophobia self again and the new cosmopolitan spirit that 's emanated from London would start to disappear.

    I'm in France at the moment and that cosmopolitan feeling has always been here but it was much later coming to England and it would be a great sadness if we lost it

    It would of course be Dave's ultimate u-turn, the one he has been building up to with all his prior u-turns, not to resign following Out.

    Not of course that he has said he would or wouldn't but as you say the expectation is that he would.

    As an out-waverer (previous in-waverer) I would want him to stay.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,365
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Eagles, reflection and self-assessment are not Farage's strong suit.

    He has all the humility of Crassus
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    edited February 2016
    Roger said:

    The two most interesting features of a 'Leave' vote would be the resignation of Dave and half his cabinet and the certainty of another Scottish referendum which would likely produce the opposite result to the last one.

    My fear is that from becoming gradually more outward looking Endgland would revert to it's old xenophobia self again and the new cosmopolitan spirit that 's emanated from London would start to disappear.

    I'm in France at the moment and that cosmopolitan feeling has always been here but it was much later coming to England and it would be a great sadness if we lost it

    If the Scotch were clever enough to vote No at $113 a barrel they certainly aren't daft enough to vote Yes at $30 a barrel. Total red herring ..
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    Alanbrooke said:

    Roger said:

    The two most interesting features of a 'Leave' vote would be the resignation of Dave and half his cabinet and the certainty of another Scottish referendum which would likely produce the opposite result to the last one.

    My fear is that from becoming gradually more outward looking Endgland would revert to it's old xenophobia self again and the new cosmopolitan spirit that 's emanated from London would start to disappear.

    I'm in France at the moment and that cosmopolitan feeling has always been here but it was much later coming to England and it would be a great sadness if we lost it

    Typical small mindedness Roger. Only Paris is vaguely cosmopolitan. Most of rural France is decidely introspective, the kind of place where the echangistes sleep with their other sister.
    There are also parts of the south where you can't move for Russian oligarchs and film stars.
  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 0
    Roger seems to be suggesting that, despite 1,000 years of history to the contrary, England is only 'cosmopolitan' because we are in the EU! I think he's lining himself up for the SeanT 'hall of PB shame' to join Nabavi and NPXMP with that one.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,842
    Mr. Eagles, shade unfair. Crassus was one of the original triumvirs, the men who ruled Rome (unofficially).

    Farage is more like deputy junior pro-praetor with special responsibility for fish. Who thinks he should be emperor.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,550
    edited February 2016
    Roger said:

    The two most interesting features of a 'Leave' vote would be the resignation of Dave and half his cabinet and the certainty of another Scottish referendum which would likely produce the opposite result to the last one.

    My fear is that from becoming gradually more outward looking Endgland would revert to it's old xenophobia self again and the new cosmopolitan spirit that 's emanated from London would start to disappear.

    I'm in France at the moment and that cosmopolitan feeling has always been here but it was much later coming to England and it would be a great sadness if we lost it

    Sometimes the trolling is just too obvious Roger. >_<
  • Plato_SaysPlato_Says Posts: 11,822
    Before embarking on a life of crime, turn off Share My Location option.

    http://metro.co.uk/2016/02/04/burglar-caught-after-signing-into-his-twitter-account-during-break-in-5662869/
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,365
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Eagles, shade unfair. Crassus was one of the original triumvirs, the men who ruled Rome (unofficially).

    Farage is more like deputy junior pro-praetor with special responsibility for fish. Who thinks he should be emperor.

    I was thinking specifically of the Battle of Carrhae
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,550
    edited February 2016
    TOPPING said:

    Roger said:

    The two most interesting features of a 'Leave' vote would be the resignation of Dave and half his cabinet and the certainty of another Scottish referendum which would likely produce the opposite result to the last one.

    My fear is that from becoming gradually more outward looking Endgland would revert to it's old xenophobia self again and the new cosmopolitan spirit that 's emanated from London would start to disappear.

    I'm in France at the moment and that cosmopolitan feeling has always been here but it was much later coming to England and it would be a great sadness if we lost it

    It would of course be Dave's ultimate u-turn, the one he has been building up to with all his prior u-turns, not to resign following Out.

    Not of course that he has said he would or wouldn't but as you say the expectation is that he would.

    As an out-waverer (previous in-waverer) I would want him to stay.
    Dave will stay, Osborne would be the fall-guy if Leave wins. Dave will want to oversee the withdrawal negotiations.

    Which brings me to another point. Leave can't aim their fire at Dave, he is the nation's least loathed politician, they need to make Osborne the face of Remain. People really, really dislike Osborne. He produces an almost visceral reaction among lefties that I know.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,842
    UN Clown Committee thinks we should let Assange walk free and compensate him:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-35499942
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,963
    williamglenn said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    Roger said:

    The two most interesting features of a 'Leave' vote would be the resignation of Dave and half his cabinet and the certainty of another Scottish referendum which would likely produce the opposite result to the last one.

    My fear is that from becoming gradually more outward looking Endgland would revert to it's old xenophobia self again and the new cosmopolitan spirit that 's emanated from London would start to disappear.

    I'm in France at the moment and that cosmopolitan feeling has always been here but it was much later coming to England and it would be a great sadness if we lost it

    Typical small mindedness Roger. Only Paris is vaguely cosmopolitan. Most of rural France is decidely introspective, the kind of place where the echangistes sleep with their other sister.
    There are also parts of the south where you can't move for Russian oligarchs and film stars.
    Are you saying Roger is a Russian Oligarch ?

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,842
    Mr. Eagles, the Battle of Carrhae did not unfold necessarily as Crassus intended, but at least he didn't try to remain in office afterwards*.

    *Admittedly, this was because he'd been killed, but the point stands.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,963
    Morris_Dancer said:

    UN Clown Committee thinks we should let Assange walk free and compensate him:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-35499942

    If HMG had any sense they'd let him bolt to Ecuador and the yanks can do their own dirty work
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    MaxPB said:

    Roger said:

    The two most interesting features of a 'Leave' vote would be the resignation of Dave and half his cabinet and the certainty of another Scottish referendum which would likely produce the opposite result to the last one.

    My fear is that from becoming gradually more outward looking Endgland would revert to it's old xenophobia self again and the new cosmopolitan spirit that 's emanated from London would start to disappear.

    I'm in France at the moment and that cosmopolitan feeling has always been here but it was much later coming to England and it would be a great sadness if we lost it

    Sometimes the trolling is just too obvious Roger. >_<</p>
    Roger thinks the French aren't xenophobic, oh my dearie me.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,365
    Kate Hoey

    Press stories about me having Left Labour Leave are nonsense.I will not be supporting Vote Leave for designation by the Electoral Commission
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    FPT:

    *** FREE MONEY ALERT *** FREE MONEY ALERT *** FREE MONEY ALERT

    I find it staggering that Hills continue to offer decimal odds of 3.5 (aka 5/2) against a LEAVE vote in the referendum in the light of YouGov's latest poll in this morning's Times, which shows LEAVE on 45% compared with REMAIN on 36%.
    Consequently there's currently an arbitrage position with Betfair's lay price of 3.05 (3.11 net of their 5% commission) ...... this won't last long that's for sure!
    DYOR.
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    MD I am pleased that the UK has vigorously told the UN where to go re Assange..to compensate him for his own choice of voluntary confinement would just be a bit too much..
  • PaulyPauly Posts: 897
    edited February 2016
    Roger said:

    The two most interesting features of a 'Leave' vote would be the resignation of Dave and half his cabinet and the certainty of another Scottish referendum which would likely produce the opposite result to the last one.

    My fear is that from becoming gradually more outward looking Endgland would revert to it's old xenophobia self again and the new cosmopolitan spirit that 's emanated from London would start to disappear.

    I'm in France at the moment and that cosmopolitan feeling has always been here but it was much later coming to England and it would be a great sadness if we lost it

    There will be no second scottish referendum as long as the Tories have a majority government, 2020 at the earliest. With Corbyn it is not unreasonable to suggest 2025 if he is not disposed of quickly. That means it is anything but a certainty.

    Secondly there is no reason Dave has to resign, but he is going to go before 2020 anyway so it merely speeds up the process - nothing to worry about.

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 46,603
    TSE: best wishes. Hope everything's okay in the short and long term.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,459
    Plato_Says said:

    Before embarking on a life of crime, turn off Share My Location option.

    http://metro.co.uk/2016/02/04/burglar-caught-after-signing-into-his-twitter-account-during-break-in-5662869/

    I was once told by a police sergeant, following an incident in which I was the victim of an attempted street knifing, that the thing to remember about most criminals is how stupendously thick they are.

    In my case they had attempted an attack a couple of dozen yards from the local police station!
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    TSE - Chin up old fruit and best wishes. I'll even forgive the Poch=Reckless post. Well maybe.

    I see Sol's been reaching out to Spurs fans... and legends.

    You would thinkCampbell would stop commenting on Spurs no one is interested in yourcomments. @HKane @ericdier @AlderweireldTob are leaders
    — Graham Roberts (@GrahamRoberts4) February 4, 2016

    The fact you left the way you did you will never be remembered like players @LedleyKing who is a real Spurs hero.
    — Graham Roberts (@GrahamRoberts4) February 4, 2016

    Let's all laugh at Reckless again. From yesterday.

    UKIP have been arguing among themselves once again, this time in Wales. Welsh ‘Kippers want the right to choose their own Welsh Assembly candidates, and have been fighting against senior figures who want to install Mark Reckless and Neil Hamilton at the top of the list. In a blow to Reckless and Hamilton’s chances, UKIP’s NEC has ruled in favour of the Welsh membership, who will now have the decisive say. Bad news for the centrally imposed candidates who were not popular among local members

    http://order-order.com/2016/02/04/blow-for-reckless-and-hamilton/
    Those 2 are the chuckle brothers of UK politics - but funnier. To me, to you.
  • PaulyPauly Posts: 897
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Kate Hoey

    Press stories about me having Left Labour Leave are nonsense.I will not be supporting Vote Leave for designation by the Electoral Commission

    That raises an interesting point - surely the Electoral Commission cannot maintain political neutrality AND appoint a lead campaigner... this seems badly thought through.
  • peter_from_putneypeter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    edited February 2016
    Pauly said:

    Roger said:

    The two most interesting features of a 'Leave' vote would be the resignation of Dave and half his cabinet and the certainty of another Scottish referendum which would likely produce the opposite result to the last one.

    My fear is that from becoming gradually more outward looking Endgland would revert to it's old xenophobia self again and the new cosmopolitan spirit that 's emanated from London would start to disappear.

    I'm in France at the moment and that cosmopolitan feeling has always been here but it was much later coming to England and it would be a great sadness if we lost it

    There will be no second scottish referendum as long as the Tories have a majority government, 2020 at the earliest. With Corbyn it is not unreasonable to suggest 2025 if he is not disposed of quickly. That means it is anything but a certainty.

    Secondly there is no reason Dave has to resign, but he is going to go before 2020 anyway so it merely speeds up the process - nothing to worry about.

    As I pointed out in the previous thread, those nice people at Wm. Hill are offering odds of 12/1 against Dave ceasing to be Tory Party leader during the course of 2016. In the light of YouGov's poll showing LEAVE having a comfortable lead, these odds represent very decent value in my view, but DYOR.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,393
    Roger said:

    The two most interesting features of a 'Leave' vote would be the resignation of Dave and half his cabinet and the certainty of another Scottish referendum which would likely produce the opposite result to the last one.

    My fear is that from becoming gradually more outward looking Endgland would revert to it's old xenophobia self again and the new cosmopolitan spirit that 's emanated from London would start to disappear.

    I'm in France at the moment and that cosmopolitan feeling has always been here but it was much later coming to England and it would be a great sadness if we lost it

    Is it this Cosmopolitan spirit that motivates 30% to vote FN?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @SamCoatesTimes: Yes Kate Hoey rejoining Labour Leave now it is leaving Vote Leave - announcement later

    @SamCoatesTimes: I'm told that Labour Leave (Labour outers) likely to formally break from Vote Leave later today, further undermining x-party base. Let's see
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,550
    Sean_F said:

    Roger said:

    The two most interesting features of a 'Leave' vote would be the resignation of Dave and half his cabinet and the certainty of another Scottish referendum which would likely produce the opposite result to the last one.

    My fear is that from becoming gradually more outward looking Endgland would revert to it's old xenophobia self again and the new cosmopolitan spirit that 's emanated from London would start to disappear.

    I'm in France at the moment and that cosmopolitan feeling has always been here but it was much later coming to England and it would be a great sadness if we lost it

    Is it this Cosmopolitan spirit that motivates 30% to vote FN?
    And another 40% for Sarkozy who is wearing FN clothes at the moment.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,842
    Mr. Putney, but won't a leadership contest take months? Even if Leave won and he resigned it may drag into 2017.

    Mr. Rottenborough, reading a book about the American Mafia. In the early days, there was a very good Italian American New York detective, whose name escapes me. Apprehended hundreds of crooks.

    A new US law in the early 20th century allowed the deportation of anyone who had an overseas criminal record and had been in the country for less than three years. So, said detective went to Italy with a list of suspected criminals to see if they'd been convicted in Italy.

    Unfortunately, his police chief (Bingham, I think the name was) was a media fool and publicised the mission. On his first day in Sicily, said detective got shot three times in the head.

    It's not only criminals who can be bloody stupid.

    [Mind you, your post also reminded me of the terrorist nutcase who tweeted a request for suggested targets].
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,365
    Sam Coates

    I'm told that Labour Leave (Labour outers) likely to formally break from Vote Leave later today, further undermining x-party base. Let's see
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,393
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. Eagles, the Battle of Carrhae did not unfold necessarily as Crassus intended, but at least he didn't try to remain in office afterwards*.

    *Admittedly, this was because he'd been killed, but the point stands.

    Not just killed, but his head used as a stage prop in a performance of Euripides' Bacchae.

    The actor playing Agave came on stage cradling the head and declaiming "Blest is this prey, new shorn from the trunk."

    It was much appreciated by the audience.
  • PaulyPauly Posts: 897
    peter_from_putney said:

    Pauly said:

    Roger said:

    The two most interesting features of a 'Leave' vote would be the resignation of Dave and half his cabinet and the certainty of another Scottish referendum which would likely produce the opposite result to the last one.

    My fear is that from becoming gradually more outward looking Endgland would revert to it's old xenophobia self again and the new cosmopolitan spirit that 's emanated from London would start to disappear.

    I'm in France at the moment and that cosmopolitan feeling has always been here but it was much later coming to England and it would be a great sadness if we lost it

    There will be no second scottish referendum as long as the Tories have a majority government, 2020 at the earliest. With Corbyn it is not unreasonable to suggest 2025 if he is not disposed of quickly. That means it is anything but a certainty.

    Secondly there is no reason Dave has to resign, but he is going to go before 2020 anyway so it merely speeds up the process - nothing to worry about.

    As I pointed out in the previous thread, those nice people at Wm. Hill are offering odds of 12/1 against Dave ceasing to be Tory Party leader during the course of 2016. In the light of YouGov's poll showing LEAVE having a comfortable lead, these odds represent very decent value in my view, but DYOR.
    That's a good point. Since this is a very real possibility - and could cause a leadership election shortly after a June vote... I just joined the Conservative party formally to try and make sure I get a vote. (I think it has to be 6 months before)
    I had been meaning to do it since the GE anyway...
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,514
    edited February 2016
    MaxPB said:

    TOPPING said:

    Roger said:

    The two most interesting features of a 'Leave' vote would be the resignation of Dave and half his cabinet and the certainty of another Scottish referendum which would likely produce the opposite result to the last one.

    My fear is that from becoming gradually more outward looking Endgland would revert to it's old xenophobia self again and the new cosmopolitan spirit that 's emanated from London would start to disappear.

    I'm in France at the moment and that cosmopolitan feeling has always been here but it was much later coming to England and it would be a great sadness if we lost it

    It would of course be Dave's ultimate u-turn, the one he has been building up to with all his prior u-turns, not to resign following Out.

    Not of course that he has said he would or wouldn't but as you say the expectation is that he would.

    As an out-waverer (previous in-waverer) I would want him to stay.
    Dave will stay, Osborne would be the fall-guy if Leave wins. Dave will want to oversee the withdrawal negotiations.

    Which brings me to another point. Leave can't aim their fire at Dave, he is the nation's least loathed politician, they need to make Osborne the face of Remain. People really, really dislike Osborne. He produces an almost visceral reaction among lefties that I know.
    I still hope Cameron doesn't go. EU idiocy aside he is a decent if overly cautious PM. I would prefer someone considerably more radical but in the absence of anyone remotely like that Cameron is a good second.

    I am not sure the idea that Osborne has tied himself to the Remain camp and is likely to be the fall guy is widely perceived. He is not being highlighted as a cheerleader at the moment in the media is even though he is obviously clearly Remain I am not sure that has connected with the public perception yet.
  • Hertsmere_PubgoerHertsmere_Pubgoer Posts: 3,476
    Morning all,
    FPT Shocked to hear the news from TSE
    All the best ad get well soon mate.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,777
    Patrick said:

    One for Malc:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/12141257/Imagine-the-mess-an-independent-Scotland-would-be-in-right-now.html

    They make Lord Haw Haw seem like a pleasant person , regurgitating their lies. Nelson is an establishment lickspittle. Fit the rectum better if he highlighted the mess the UK is in and exposed the reality of squeaky's disastrous policies.
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    Very efficient trolling by @Roger there
This discussion has been closed.

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