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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » YouGov has LEAVE lead up to 9% in survey taken immediately
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » YouGov has LEAVE lead up to 9% in survey taken immediately after this week’s key referendum talks
So far in the referendum campaign members of the YouGov have been tending to be more in favour of BREXIT than those most other online firms and certainly there’s a massive gap between YouGov and the EURef phone polls.
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http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scottish-independence/12141257/Imagine-the-mess-an-independent-Scotland-would-be-in-right-now.html
Westminster voting intention:
CON: 39% (-)
LAB: 29% (-1)
UKIP: 18% (+1)
LDEM: 6% (-)
GRN: 3% (-)
(via YouGov / 03 - 04 Feb)
If that turns out to be true (and the mainstream media is, in this regard, sometimes less reliable than Twitter) then it's the kind of insanity that could credibly lead to a real rise of extremist politicians. If the cuddly mainstream won't acknowledge reality and the genuine concerns people have, voters, at least in part, will turn to those who will.
On-topic: it'll be interesting to see how accurate the polling is compared to the General Election. I'm not surprised more people are backing Leave, though. Prime Minister Miliband's negotiation has not exceeded expectations.
You also have to consider that the immigration crisis will only get worse and worse, as the EU has little to no solutions to stop it, and they won't for years and years.
Could be a voodoo poll. I'm reassured that many Brits can still recognise a crock of shit when it's exhibited to them, even when that's by a jolly nice chap like Cameron.
I'm back and still Trumping.
CON: 36%
LAB: 42%
LDEM: 10%
(via YouGov / 03 - 04 Feb 2011)
Miliband had a 6 point lead in 2011, and Corbyn is 10 points behind right now...
A good article from Phillip Collins emphasises this in this mornings Times.
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/columnists/article4683054.ece
http://www.presseportal.de/blaulicht/pm/12415/3243821
18 sexual offences (sexual assault through to rape) reported last night in Cologne..
I wish people would stop reporting on the campaign infighting as if it was a defence of the EU. This social network campaign has considerable reach so far, and the campaigning period hasn't properly started yet.
For all those who receive bad medical news remember:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wilko_Johnson#Cancer
If the EU heads of government refuse to accept even these meagre points that Cameron has raised in bogus hope, even the most duped will be able to see through this.
The main hope for remain is that many people will vote that way due to fear of change or hope of advancement for themselves, regardless of the general good.
I see Sol's been reaching out to Spurs fans... and legends.
You would thinkCampbell would stop commenting on Spurs no one is interested in yourcomments. @HKane @ericdier @AlderweireldTob are leaders
— Graham Roberts (@GrahamRoberts4) February 4, 2016
The fact you left the way you did you will never be remembered like players @LedleyKing who is a real Spurs hero.
— Graham Roberts (@GrahamRoberts4) February 4, 2016
Pro-reform delegates will gather in the capital on Monday and discuss how to build a broad alliance to achieve proportional representation straight after the next election.
The meeting will be attended by Natalie Bennett, the leader of the Green Party; Hywel Williams, the Westminster leader of Plaid Cymru; and Diane James, Ukip’s Home Affairs spokesperson.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/cross-party-alliance-draws-up-plan-to-secure-proportional-representation-by-2021-a6853811.html
Unsurprising Chairman Corbyn and Mao are in favour. UKIP have only their own serial incompetence to blame for their consecutive electoral failures.
UKIP have been arguing among themselves once again, this time in Wales. Welsh ‘Kippers want the right to choose their own Welsh Assembly candidates, and have been fighting against senior figures who want to install Mark Reckless and Neil Hamilton at the top of the list. In a blow to Reckless and Hamilton’s chances, UKIP’s NEC has ruled in favour of the Welsh membership, who will now have the decisive say. Bad news for the centrally imposed candidates who were not popular among local members
http://order-order.com/2016/02/04/blow-for-reckless-and-hamilton/
If Douglas Carswell hadn't defected, then in May, UKIP would have had nearly four million votes and no MPs.
That's a damning indictment of UKIP's targeting and ground game, Farage should reflect on that if he wants to lead Leave
They all want reform until they get in to government, them miraculously they stop.
He can tar them both with the same extreme and loony brush.
Yowser
My fear is that from becoming gradually more outward looking Endgland would revert to it's old xenophobia self again and the new cosmopolitan spirit that 's emanated from London would start to disappear.
I'm in France at the moment and that cosmopolitan feeling has always been here but it was much later coming to England and it would be a great sadness if we lost it
Also, really sorry to hear about your troubles from the previous thread. There have been some breakthroughs in stem cell research for optic nerve regeneration recently so don't lose all hope.
Not of course that he has said he would or wouldn't but as you say the expectation is that he would.
As an out-waverer (previous in-waverer) I would want him to stay.
Farage is more like deputy junior pro-praetor with special responsibility for fish. Who thinks he should be emperor.
http://metro.co.uk/2016/02/04/burglar-caught-after-signing-into-his-twitter-account-during-break-in-5662869/
Which brings me to another point. Leave can't aim their fire at Dave, he is the nation's least loathed politician, they need to make Osborne the face of Remain. People really, really dislike Osborne. He produces an almost visceral reaction among lefties that I know.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-35499942
*Admittedly, this was because he'd been killed, but the point stands.
Press stories about me having Left Labour Leave are nonsense.I will not be supporting Vote Leave for designation by the Electoral Commission
*** FREE MONEY ALERT *** FREE MONEY ALERT *** FREE MONEY ALERT
I find it staggering that Hills continue to offer decimal odds of 3.5 (aka 5/2) against a LEAVE vote in the referendum in the light of YouGov's latest poll in this morning's Times, which shows LEAVE on 45% compared with REMAIN on 36%.
Consequently there's currently an arbitrage position with Betfair's lay price of 3.05 (3.11 net of their 5% commission) ...... this won't last long that's for sure!
DYOR.
Secondly there is no reason Dave has to resign, but he is going to go before 2020 anyway so it merely speeds up the process - nothing to worry about.
In my case they had attempted an attack a couple of dozen yards from the local police station!
@SamCoatesTimes: I'm told that Labour Leave (Labour outers) likely to formally break from Vote Leave later today, further undermining x-party base. Let's see
Mr. Rottenborough, reading a book about the American Mafia. In the early days, there was a very good Italian American New York detective, whose name escapes me. Apprehended hundreds of crooks.
A new US law in the early 20th century allowed the deportation of anyone who had an overseas criminal record and had been in the country for less than three years. So, said detective went to Italy with a list of suspected criminals to see if they'd been convicted in Italy.
Unfortunately, his police chief (Bingham, I think the name was) was a media fool and publicised the mission. On his first day in Sicily, said detective got shot three times in the head.
It's not only criminals who can be bloody stupid.
[Mind you, your post also reminded me of the terrorist nutcase who tweeted a request for suggested targets].
I'm told that Labour Leave (Labour outers) likely to formally break from Vote Leave later today, further undermining x-party base. Let's see
The actor playing Agave came on stage cradling the head and declaiming "Blest is this prey, new shorn from the trunk."
It was much appreciated by the audience.
I had been meaning to do it since the GE anyway...
I am not sure the idea that Osborne has tied himself to the Remain camp and is likely to be the fall guy is widely perceived. He is not being highlighted as a cheerleader at the moment in the media is even though he is obviously clearly Remain I am not sure that has connected with the public perception yet.
FPT Shocked to hear the news from TSE
All the best ad get well soon mate.