The result of the by-election is pretty predictable, but there might be some scope for betting on the turnout and majority.
Any guesses on when the by-election will be?
Could Balls be interested?
Can't see the Corbynistas wanting that outcome. Would be too much an alternative centre of power risk. Although he did impress me with the grace that he took his defeat in May.
Idiot. It can be insignificant enough to us - which it is - and yet symbolically significant to enough Euro-Federalists that they won't even give us this dreadful compromise, if enough of THEM think Let Britain Go, or They Will Never Vote Leave.
Ah, so you are now saying that Cameron got the best deal he could have got.
I've reached the point when I no longer want any discussion with you, at least for the moment. Your supercilious droolings - simultaneously pompous, disingenuous, canting, and misinformed - pretending to some higher knowledge which, on examination, does not actually exist - make me actively dislike you.
When you reach that ridiculous point, on an internet forum, with some old twit you've never even met, it is time to seek argumentation elsewhere. I shall do that.
I'd only ever accept a deeply two-speed EU. The superstate core must be a proper democracy. But we'd never be in that core. We'd be in the slow lane / 'quasi' status - 'with' but not 'of'. I would not expect Brits to form part of the core superstate government but likewise we wouldn't be bound by its government either. The slow lane should be a members club. The core a country - if that's what it's peoples really want.
Hopefully, that is what we are groping towards, albeit fitfully. That is why Cameron was right to say we won't impede Eurozone integration. We actvely want them firstly to make the Eurozone work, and secondly to concentrate their ever-closer union stuff there.
And yet he didn't secure an opt-out from EMU only resolutions and laws. How will this two speed Europe emerge if the EU is intent on using the same one size fits all method?
Don't worry about not answering though, it's a rhetorical question to which we all know the answer. It won't. The EU would love nothing better than to force non-EMU nations into the Euro (including us), the one size fits all method is intended to push everyone towards the centre.
Just as an aside. Following on from yesterday's chat about trains. Currently traveling south on Virgin East Coast. First class travel less than a third of the cost of flying and really excellent service. Not quite back to the old days of silver service but very good never the less. And on a very full train.
A leading Labour MP is calling for the classic Tom Jones song "Delilah" to be banned from Six Nations rugby matches saying that it glorifies domestic violence.
House of Commons shadow leader Chris Bryant is campaigning for the beloved Welsh rugby anthem to be banned after claiming the song is about "killing a prostitute".
Now I realise he's trying to make a point about a serious issue, (and nobody doubts it is a serious issue), and I don't doubt his motives but is this not exactly the sort of thing that makes people despair of politicians? 60-70000 people a couple of pints in 15 mins before kick off are not glorifying domestic violence they're having a sing song using a tune made famous by a Welsh icon, that happens to lend itself very well to crowd singing -I saw the light on the night that I passed by her window" (all together now) nah, nah, naaaa nahaaa.
Are we banning Flower of Scotland for being beastly to poor old Edward's army, or that that French anthem's a bit gory "Qu'un sang impur n'abrueve nos sillions" so we'll ban that too?
What's next Sospan fach being referred to the cats' protection league as it might incite cruelty to moggies as it scratches little Johnny? (A'r gath wedi sgrapo Joni bach - for those who don't know the lyrics)
A leading Labour MP is calling for the classic Tom Jones song "Delilah" to be banned from Six Nations rugby matches saying that it glorifies domestic violence.
House of Commons shadow leader Chris Bryant is campaigning for the beloved Welsh rugby anthem to be banned after claiming the song is about "killing a prostitute".
The result of the by-election is pretty predictable, but there might be some scope for betting on the turnout and majority.
Any guesses on when the by-election will be?
Could Balls be interested?
Now that's an intriguing thought.
He has said repeatedly that he's done with politics for good.
Yes, for good reason as well. Labour are unelectable and Balls, above all else, likes to win. He won't be able to do a Burnham and watch as Corbyn turns him into a eunuch (thanks go to Sean_F for comparing Burnham to Reek!) and destroys any political legacy Balls might have from his time as education secretary or at the treasury.
3. You're a bit in a twist here. The Commission *is* the government. Personally, I'd fully support a Commission comprised solely of MEPs and fully accountable to the EP like any other government. Same with single-member constituencies. But you have to realise that if you gave the EP and Commission more legitimacy then you'd implicitly give them more power. For that reason, unlikely to win support from Scpetics.
I'd only ever accept a deeply two-speed EU. The superstate core must be a proper democracy. But we'd never be in that core. We'd be in the slow lane / 'quasi' status - 'with' but not 'of'. I would not expect Brits to form part of the core superstate government but likewise we wouldn't be bound by its government either. The slow lane should be a members club. The core a country - if that's what it's peoples really want.
You can't separate them to that extent. Membership of the Single Market has to mean accepting the governance of it, which comes from the Commission and its interpretation in the ECJ.
Certainly we can opt out of some policies but that does the raise the issue of what we and other states like states do on policy decisions in these areas: a West Latvian Question, if you like.
3. You're a bit in a twist here. The Commission *is* the government. Personally, I'd fully support a Commission comprised solely of MEPs and fully accountable to the EP like any other government. Same with single-member constituencies. But you have to realise that if you gave the EP and Commission more legitimacy then you'd implicitly give them more power. For that reason, unlikely to win support from Scpetics.
I'd only ever accept a deeply two-speed EU. The superstate core must be a proper democracy. But we'd never be in that core. We'd be in the slow lane / 'quasi' status - 'with' but not 'of'. I would not expect Brits to form part of the core superstate government but likewise we wouldn't be bound by its government either. The slow lane should be a members club. The core a country - if that's what it's peoples really want.
You can't separate them to that extent. Membership of the Single Market has to mean accepting the governance of it, which comes from the Commission and its interpretation in the ECJ.
Certainly we can opt out of some policies but that does the raise the issue of what we and other states like states do on policy decisions in these areas: a West Latvian Question, if you like.
Not so. EEA countries are part of the single market but are not subject to ECJ rulings.
Two new NH polls... NBC/WSJ/Marist Trump 30, Rubio 17, Cruz 15, Kasich 10, Bush 9, Christie 4, Fiorina 2, Carson 4 ARG (Tracking) Trump 36, Rubio 15, Cruz 12, Kasich 14, Bush 8, Christie 6, Fiorina 2, Carson 2
Each would deliver 12,3,3,2 delegates
One more, which I don't think has been reported, from Quinnipiac (2/2 - 4/2):
Trump 31 Cruz 22 Rubio 19 Carson 6 The rest 3 or below.
(The 10% Don't Knows are included so the above figures are out of 90%)
Trump clearly hit after Iowa but still ahead.
Curious. The Huff summary is no longer reporting the above poll but it was definitely there half an hour ago! (Doesn't seem to be on Quinnipiac's website either).
Two more that are though:
CNN/UNH/WMUR: Trump 29, Rubio 18, Cruz 13, Kasich 12, Bush 10, 4 the field (8% undecided). Note - only 209 in the sample so 5% MoE
UMass Lowell /7News: Trump 34, Rubio 15, Cruz 14, Kasich 8, Bush 8, 5 the field (6% undecided).
Seems like Rubio is probably just about holding second place but still a long way behind Trump.
Here you go, this is a national poll not a N.H. one:
A leading Labour MP is calling for the classic Tom Jones song "Delilah" to be banned from Six Nations rugby matches saying that it glorifies domestic violence.
House of Commons shadow leader Chris Bryant is campaigning for the beloved Welsh rugby anthem to be banned after claiming the song is about "killing a prostitute".
National public service broadcaster Zweites Deutsches Fernsehen (ZDF), which was recently forced into a humiliating apology for their silence on migrant violence and sex assault is being drawn into a fresh scandal after one of their former bureau chiefs admitted the company takes orders from the government on what it reports. He said journalists received instructions to write news that would be “to Ms. Merkel’s liking”.
Former head of ZDF Bonn Dr. Wolfgang Herles make the remarks during a radio event (from minute 27) in Berlin where journalists discussed the media landscape. Moving on to the freedom of the press, the panel chair asked Dr. Herles whether things in Germany had got “seriously out of whack”. With an honesty perhaps unusual in Germany, Dr. Herles replied that ordinary Germans were totally losing faith in the media, something he called a “scandal”.
Two new NH polls... NBC/WSJ/Marist Trump 30, Rubio 17, Cruz 15, Kasich 10, Bush 9, Christie 4, Fiorina 2, Carson 4 ARG (Tracking) Trump 36, Rubio 15, Cruz 12, Kasich 14, Bush 8, Christie 6, Fiorina 2, Carson 2
Each would deliver 12,3,3,2 delegates
One more, which I don't think has been reported, from Quinnipiac (2/2 - 4/2):
Trump 31 Cruz 22 Rubio 19 Carson 6 The rest 3 or below.
(The 10% Don't Knows are included so the above figures are out of 90%)
Trump clearly hit after Iowa but still ahead.
Curious. The Huff summary is no longer reporting the above poll but it was definitely there half an hour ago! (Doesn't seem to be on Quinnipiac's website either).
Two more that are though:
CNN/UNH/WMUR: Trump 29, Rubio 18, Cruz 13, Kasich 12, Bush 10, 4 the field (8% undecided). Note - only 209 in the sample so 5% MoE
UMass Lowell /7News: Trump 34, Rubio 15, Cruz 14, Kasich 8, Bush 8, 5 the field (6% undecided).
Seems like Rubio is probably just about holding second place but still a long way behind Trump.
Here you go, this is a national poll not a N.H. one:
Anyhoo. The big polling news overnight was the Tories being second in Scotland.
Dreaming again
And your reading of the current shares is?
To be honest, I doubt the Tories are second in Scotland at the moment but I do think they're within MoE and as such we will get, as here, the odd poll putting them level or ahead.
There was an amusing projection on twitter of how the poll would pan out in the constituencies - namely a big slab of blue across the Borders, some orange specs in the north and yellow just about everywhere else. And no red.
Labour are certainly trying to help them be loser of choice, but it will be too much for people to vote Tory, 3rd for sure.
It's not so much that Lab and Con are tied that surprises me - I was expecting that at some point just on sampling fluctuation - it's that both parties are on 25; a share the Conservatives haven't achieved since 1992.
I will be gobsmacked if they increase vote by anything significant
Two new NH polls... NBC/WSJ/Marist Trump 30, Rubio 17, Cruz 15, Kasich 10, Bush 9, Christie 4, Fiorina 2, Carson 4 ARG (Tracking) Trump 36, Rubio 15, Cruz 12, Kasich 14, Bush 8, Christie 6, Fiorina 2, Carson 2
Each would deliver 12,3,3,2 delegates
One more, which I don't think has been reported, from Quinnipiac (2/2 - 4/2):
Trump 31 Cruz 22 Rubio 19 Carson 6 The rest 3 or below.
(The 10% Don't Knows are included so the above figures are out of 90%)
Trump clearly hit after Iowa but still ahead.
Curious. The Huff summary is no longer reporting the above poll but it was definitely there half an hour ago! (Doesn't seem to be on Quinnipiac's website either).
Two more that are though:
CNN/UNH/WMUR: Trump 29, Rubio 18, Cruz 13, Kasich 12, Bush 10, 4 the field (8% undecided). Note - only 209 in the sample so 5% MoE
UMass Lowell /7News: Trump 34, Rubio 15, Cruz 14, Kasich 8, Bush 8, 5 the field (6% undecided).
Seems like Rubio is probably just about holding second place but still a long way behind Trump.
Here you go, this is a national poll not a N.H. one:
Anyhoo. The big polling news overnight was the Tories being second in Scotland.
Dreaming again
And your reading of the current shares is?
To be honest, I doubt the Tories are second in Scotland at the moment but I do think they're within MoE and as such we will get, as here, the odd poll putting them level or ahead.
There was an amusing projection on twitter of how the poll would pan out in the constituencies - namely a big slab of blue across the Borders, some orange specs in the north and yellow just about everywhere else. And no red.
Labour are certainly trying to help them be loser of choice, but it will be too much for people to vote Tory, 3rd for sure.
It's not so much that Lab and Con are tied that surprises me - I was expecting that at some point just on sampling fluctuation - it's that both parties are on 25; a share the Conservatives haven't achieved since 1992.
I will be gobsmacked if they increase vote by anything significant
A leading Labour MP is calling for the classic Tom Jones song "Delilah" to be banned from Six Nations rugby matches saying that it glorifies domestic violence.
House of Commons shadow leader Chris Bryant is campaigning for the beloved Welsh rugby anthem to be banned after claiming the song is about "killing a prostitute".
Faisal Islam Also Schulz tells @skynews "nothing is irreversible" when I ask if the EU deal is, as the PM has argued "legally binding and irreversible"
Given he's EU president, he's dumping all over our draft deal.
Regarding a "Vow" style intervention, is this possible in the EU referendum and, if so, what form might it take?
In the Indy ref it was enough to get Cameron, Clegg and Miliband to agree. In the EU ref it would, in theory, be necessary to get all the 27 heads of government to agree. Not going to happen over a weekend.
Might a Vow take the form of a mere pledge from Merkel, Hollande and Juncker? Not sure that would have any impact.
Also, what simple,.eye-catching stuff could be put into a Vow, which the rest of the EU would possibly agree to. I mean, some technocratic tinkering wouldn't work. It would have to be something big and simple.
I don't see that a Vow can be cooked up this time.
That would be M Juncker who said something about having to lie when required? Or have I got that wrong?
"When it becomes serious, you have to lie" (quoth Juncker).
Hereford report: languages heard 6 (7 if you count Welsh as a foreign language). Number of yokels struck dumbfounded in the street due to hearing noises not in their native tongue: 0.
I can only believe Roger dwells in some imaginary world where Britain is eternally mired in the 60s with 'No Irish, No Gypsies, no Darkies" in every sitting room window.
Comments
Would be too much an alternative centre of power risk.
Although he did impress me with the grace that he took his defeat in May.
Don't worry about not answering though, it's a rhetorical question to which we all know the answer. It won't. The EU would love nothing better than to force non-EMU nations into the Euro (including us), the one size fits all method is intended to push everyone towards the centre.
Are we banning Flower of Scotland for being beastly to poor old Edward's army, or that that French anthem's a bit gory "Qu'un sang impur n'abrueve nos sillions" so we'll ban that too?
What's next Sospan fach being referred to the cats' protection league as it might incite cruelty to moggies as it scratches little Johnny? (A'r gath wedi sgrapo Joni bach - for those who don't know the lyrics)
I wonder if we'll see crossover between Labour and UKIP at some point in this Parliament
Certainly we can opt out of some policies but that does the raise the issue of what we and other states like states do on policy decisions in these areas: a West Latvian Question, if you like.
"Balls deep laying Bush"
http://www.breitbart.com/london/2016/02/02/top-german-journalist-admits-live-on-air-national-news-agenda-set-by-government/
But I said that before bloody Iowa !
"Senator Sanders is the only person who would characterise me, a woman running to be the first woman president, as exemplifying the establishment"
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-us-2016-35499180
(maybe the welsh do too?)
apparently this gives stoke negative points in the "fair play league". whatever
Hereford report: languages heard 6 (7 if you count Welsh as a foreign language). Number of yokels struck dumbfounded in the street due to hearing noises not in their native tongue: 0.
I can only believe Roger dwells in some imaginary world where Britain is eternally mired in the 60s with 'No Irish, No Gypsies, no Darkies" in every sitting room window.