In one scene she nonchalantly painted her nails while half-helping to draft a press statement about why Kids Company funds had been used to pay her chauffeur’s children’s school fees – then let slip that she had paid a second driver a five-figure salary, a fact her PR man Laurence Guinness wanted to keep under the radar.
The two most interesting features of a 'Leave' vote would be the resignation of Dave and half his cabinet and the certainty of another Scottish referendum which would likely produce the opposite result to the last one.
My fear is that from becoming gradually more outward looking Endgland would revert to it's old xenophobia self again and the new cosmopolitan spirit that 's emanated from London would start to disappear.
I'm in France at the moment and that cosmopolitan feeling has always been here but it was much later coming to England and it would be a great sadness if we lost it
It would of course be Dave's ultimate u-turn, the one he has been building up to with all his prior u-turns, not to resign following Out.
Not of course that he has said he would or wouldn't but as you say the expectation is that he would.
As an out-waverer (previous in-waverer) I would want him to stay.
Dave will stay, Osborne would be the fall-guy if Leave wins. Dave will want to oversee the withdrawal negotiations.
Which brings me to another point. Leave can't aim their fire at Dave, he is the nation's least loathed politician, they need to make Osborne the face of Remain. People really, really dislike Osborne. He produces an almost visceral reaction among lefties that I know.
I still hope Cameron doesn't go. EU idiocy aside he is a decent if overly cautious PM. I would prefer someone considerably more radical but in the absence of anyone remotely like that Cameron is a good second.
I am not sure the idea that Osborne has tied himself to the Remain camp and is likely to be the fall guy is widely perceived. He is not being highlighted as a cheerleader at the moment in the media si even though he is obviously clearly Remain I am not sure that has connected with the public perception yet.
Given how he has treated Tory sceptics over the last few weeks, if Leave wins they will have his head on a platter and Dave will have to give it to them if he wants to have any semblance of a legislative agenda from 2017-2020.
Yes, Osborne seems to have realised that if he publicly campaigns for remain he will probably increase leave's chances. Which is my point, both leave campaigns need to tie him to remain and make him look like the person central to the renegotiation and the operation to deny Tory MPs a fair go at backing leave.
People really, really don't like him. Even at the few Tory campaigning events I've been to the reaction is mixed and very polarised, the people that like him treat him as the second coming of the messiah and people that don't like him think he is the devil incarnate, there aren't many in between from my experience.
Anyhoo. The big polling news overnight was the Tories being second in Scotland.
Dreaming again
And your reading of the current shares is?
To be honest, I doubt the Tories are second in Scotland at the moment but I do think they're within MoE and as such we will get, as here, the odd poll putting them level or ahead.
There was an amusing projection on twitter of how the poll would pan out in the constituencies - namely a big slab of blue across the Borders, some orange specs in the north and yellow just about everywhere else. And no red.
Norman Smith The feuding in the Brexit camp rumbles on as @LeaveEUOfficial fire off legal warnings to @vote_leave over "false and defamatory" briefings
The two most interesting features of a 'Leave' vote would be the resignation of Dave and half his cabinet and the certainty of another Scottish referendum which would likely produce the opposite result to the last one.
My fear is that from becoming gradually more outward looking Endgland would revert to it's old xenophobia self again and the new cosmopolitan spirit that 's emanated from London would start to disappear.
I'm in France at the moment and that cosmopolitan feeling has always been here but it was much later coming to England and it would be a great sadness if we lost it
It would of course be Dave's ultimate u-turn, the one he has been building up to with all his prior u-turns, not to resign following Out.
Not of course that he has said he would or wouldn't but as you say the expectation is that he would.
As an out-waverer (previous in-waverer) I would want him to stay.
Dave will stay, Osborne would be the fall-guy if Leave wins. Dave will want to oversee the withdrawal negotiations.
Which brings me to another point. Leave can't aim their fire at Dave, he is the nation's least loathed politician, they need to make Osborne the face of Remain. People really, really dislike Osborne. He produces an almost visceral reaction among lefties that I know.
I still hope Cameron doesn't go. EU idiocy aside he is a decent if overly cautious PM. I would prefer someone considerably more radical but in the absence of anyone remotely like that Cameron is a good second.
I am not sure the idea that Osborne has tied himself to the Remain camp and is likely to be the fall guy is widely perceived. He is not being highlighted as a cheerleader at the moment in the media is even though he is obviously clearly Remain I am not sure that has connected with the public perception yet.
He will keep a fairly low profile I think. He's not an idiot and is well aware he's unpopular.
I guess the point of him going, though, is that the Leave side (if it wins) would want some kind of sacrifice in return for acquiescing in Cameron remaining. Also they might want to install a Leave-ish Chancellor to keep Cameron (in their view) honest.
Anyhoo. The big polling news overnight was the Tories being second in Scotland.
Dreaming again
And your reading of the current shares is?
To be honest, I doubt the Tories are second in Scotland at the moment but I do think they're within MoE and as such we will get, as here, the odd poll putting them level or ahead.
There was an amusing projection on twitter of how the poll would pan out in the constituencies - namely a big slab of blue across the Borders, some orange specs in the north and yellow just about everywhere else. And no red.
The two most interesting features of a 'Leave' vote would be the resignation of Dave and half his cabinet and the certainty of another Scottish referendum which would likely produce the opposite result to the last one.
My fear is that from becoming gradually more outward looking Endgland would revert to it's old xenophobia self again and the new cosmopolitan spirit that 's emanated from London would start to disappear.
I'm in France at the moment and that cosmopolitan feeling has always been here but it was much later coming to England and it would be a great sadness if we lost it
It would of course be Dave's ultimate u-turn, the one he has been building up to with all his prior u-turns, not to resign following Out.
Not of course that he has said he would or wouldn't but as you say the expectation is that he would.
As an out-waverer (previous in-waverer) I would want him to stay.
Dave will stay, Osborne would be the fall-guy if Leave wins. Dave will want to oversee the withdrawal negotiations.
Which brings me to another point. Leave can't aim their fire at Dave, he is the nation's least loathed politician, they need to make Osborne the face of Remain. People really, really dislike Osborne. He produces an almost visceral reaction among lefties that I know.
I still hope Cameron doesn't go. EU idiocy aside he is a decent if overly cautious PM. I would prefer someone considerably more radical but in the absence of anyone remotely like that Cameron is a good second.
I am not sure the idea that Osborne has tied himself to the Remain camp and is likely to be the fall guy is widely perceived. He is not being highlighted as a cheerleader at the moment in the media is even though he is obviously clearly Remain I am not sure that has connected with the public perception yet.
He will keep a fairly low profile I think. He's not an idiot and is well aware he's unpopular.
I guess the point of him going, though, is that the Leave side (if it wins) would want some kind of sacrifice in return for acquiescing in Cameron remaining. Also they might want to install a Leave-ish Chancellor to keep Cameron (in their view) honest.
I would suggest under those circumstances Cameron should tell them to go screw themselves. We are voting about leaving the EU not changing the properly elected Government.
As a blue europhile, the whole thread discussion about the multitude of leave campaign groups bickering a la the judeans peoples front is bewildering.
There's simply too many leaves on the political track.
I am so nicking that.
PS Since I'm now Likely to vote Leave, am I going to be expelled from the "Fiscally Dry, Socially Liberal Not Obssesed by the EU, Immigrants, and Gay Tory Party"?
The Leave campaign need to lock Arron Banks in a dark room and throw away the key. Fast.
No kidding. Then again, until Nigel Farage steps down as UKIP leader the Leave campaign is going to be in shambles. Banks and Farage come as a package.
I would suggest under those circumstances Cameron should tell them to go screw themselves. We are voting about leaving the EU not changing the properly elected Government.
Not really, Osborne is the one preparing to unleash the forces of hell on MPs or Cabinet colleagues who declare for Leave. If Leave wins they will have his head. Deservedly so, IMO. It would also kill his leadership ambitions stone dead.
As a blue europhile, the whole thread discussion about the multitude of leave campaign groups bickering a la the judeans peoples front is bewildering.
There's simply too many leaves on the political track.
I am so nicking that.
PS Since I'm now Likely to vote Leave, am I going to be expelled from the "Fiscally Dry, Socially Liberal Not Obssesed by the EU, Immigrants, and Gay Tory Party"?
I hope not because that would mean that I am likely to be expelled too. Did we ever fix the quorum?
Anyhoo. The big polling news overnight was the Tories being second in Scotland.
Dreaming again
And your reading of the current shares is?
To be honest, I doubt the Tories are second in Scotland at the moment but I do think they're within MoE and as such we will get, as here, the odd poll putting them level or ahead.
There was an amusing projection on twitter of how the poll would pan out in the constituencies - namely a big slab of blue across the Borders, some orange specs in the north and yellow just about everywhere else. And no red.
Miss Plato, utterly OT, but Katabasis is the opposite, I think, to Anabasis, which was the original title of Xenophon's account of the retreat of The Ten Thousand.
Morris_Dancer: 9:38AM - Mr. Putney, but won't a leadership contest take months? Even if Leave won and he resigned it may drag into 2017.
It could, but if as mooted the referendum is held on my birthday of 23 June, then 6 months + to arrange a leadership election would seem to be time enough.
As a blue europhile, the whole thread discussion about the multitude of leave campaign groups bickering a la the judeans peoples front is bewildering.
There's simply too many leaves on the political track.
I am so nicking that.
PS Since I'm now Likely to vote Leave, am I going to be expelled from the "Fiscally Dry, Socially Liberal Not Obssesed by the EU, Immigrants, and Gay Tory Party"?
Being a social liberal, and having to be in favour of the EU is as muddled thinking as assuming PR would be eternally good for the left.
As a blue europhile, the whole thread discussion about the multitude of leave campaign groups bickering a la the judeans peoples front is bewildering.
There's simply too many leaves on the political track.
I am so nicking that.
PS Since I'm now Likely to vote Leave, am I going to be expelled from the "Fiscally Dry, Socially Liberal Not Obssesed by the EU, Immigrants, and Gay Tory Party"?
I hope not because that would mean that I am likely to be expelled too. Did we ever fix the quorum?
All the best TSE. I was sorry to see your news.
Yes the Quorum is You, Scrapheap, RobD and I.
I'm seeing the consultant shortly, I'll keep you all updated.
As a blue europhile, the whole thread discussion about the multitude of leave campaign groups bickering a la the judeans peoples front is bewildering.
There's simply too many leaves on the political track.
I am so nicking that.
PS Since I'm now Likely to vote Leave, am I going to be expelled from the "Fiscally Dry, Socially Liberal Not Obssesed by the EU, Immigrants, and Gay Tory Party"?
I hope not because that would mean that I am likely to be expelled too. Did we ever fix the quorum?
All the best TSE. I was sorry to see your news.
Yes the Quorum is You, Scrapheap, RobD and I.
I'm seeing the consultant shortly, I'll keep you all updated.
Last time I checked you were in the schismatic republican branch.
As a blue europhile, the whole thread discussion about the multitude of leave campaign groups bickering a la the judeans peoples front is bewildering.
There's simply too many leaves on the political track.
I am so nicking that.
PS Since I'm now Likely to vote Leave, am I going to be expelled from the "Fiscally Dry, Socially Liberal Not Obssesed by the EU, Immigrants, and Gay Tory Party"?
I hope not because that would mean that I am likely to be expelled too. Did we ever fix the quorum?
All the best TSE. I was sorry to see your news.
Yes the Quorum is You, Scrapheap, RobD and I.
I'm seeing the consultant shortly, I'll keep you all updated.
Best of luck TSE, hoping for the best on your behalf.
Morris_Dancer: 9:38AM - Mr. Putney, but won't a leadership contest take months? Even if Leave won and he resigned it may drag into 2017.
It could, but if as mooted the referendum is held on my birthday of 23 June, then 6 months + to arrange a leadership election would seem to be time enough.
They could do it in three months, just like they did in 2001.
In 2003, it only took eight days from deposing IDS to installing Michael Howard as leader
it will be too much for people to vote Tory, 3rd for sure.
If they want Tory tax cuts, they can just vote for Swinney
And Tory austerity......mind you, I doubt the Tories would have the brass neck to subsidise the middle classes on the backs of the poor that the SNP have done while proclaiming their 'progressive' credentials.....
As a blue europhile, the whole thread discussion about the multitude of leave campaign groups bickering a la the judeans peoples front is bewildering.
There's simply too many leaves on the political track.
I am so nicking that.
PS Since I'm now Likely to vote Leave, am I going to be expelled from the "Fiscally Dry, Socially Liberal Not Obssesed by the EU, Immigrants, and Gay Tory Party"?
I hope not because that would mean that I am likely to be expelled too. Did we ever fix the quorum?
All the best TSE. I was sorry to see your news.
Yes the Quorum is You, Scrapheap, RobD and I.
I'm seeing the consultant shortly, I'll keep you all updated.
Last time I checked you were in the schismatic republican branch.
As a blue europhile, the whole thread discussion about the multitude of leave campaign groups bickering a la the judeans peoples front is bewildering.
There's simply too many leaves on the political track.
I am so nicking that.
PS Since I'm now Likely to vote Leave, am I going to be expelled from the "Fiscally Dry, Socially Liberal Not Obssesed by the EU, Immigrants, and Gay Tory Party"?
I hope not because that would mean that I am likely to be expelled too. Did we ever fix the quorum?
All the best TSE. I was sorry to see your news.
Yes the Quorum is You, Scrapheap, RobD and I.
I'm seeing the consultant shortly, I'll keep you all updated.
Last time I checked you were in the schismatic republican branch.
My republicanism is on the wane.
Excellent
If it stays that way after the demise of the crown is another matter
As a blue europhile, the whole thread discussion about the multitude of leave campaign groups bickering a la the judeans peoples front is bewildering.
There's simply too many leaves on the political track.
I am so nicking that.
PS Since I'm now Likely to vote Leave, am I going to be expelled from the "Fiscally Dry, Socially Liberal Not Obssesed by the EU, Immigrants, and Gay Tory Party"?
I hope not because that would mean that I am likely to be expelled too. Did we ever fix the quorum?
All the best TSE. I was sorry to see your news.
Yes the Quorum is You, Scrapheap, RobD and I.
I'm seeing the consultant shortly, I'll keep you all updated.
I think I can still claim membership in that I am very much still not obsessed by the EU. I frankly see our future inside the EU or within the EEA as very similar.
Cameron may not have achieved it in time for the referendum (which is going to make life more difficult for him) but the logic of an Inner EZ core and an outer non EZ periphery is so compelling for both sides of the equation that it really should not be that difficult. Conversely, if we go out to the EEA I think we will find that the EU continues to play a very large part in our lives and indeed our laws.
As a blue europhile, the whole thread discussion about the multitude of leave campaign groups bickering a la the judeans peoples front is bewildering.
There's simply too many leaves on the political track.
I am so nicking that.
PS Since I'm now Likely to vote Leave, am I going to be expelled from the "Fiscally Dry, Socially Liberal Not Obssesed by the EU, Immigrants, and Gay Tory Party"?
I hope not because that would mean that I am likely to be expelled too. Did we ever fix the quorum?
All the best TSE. I was sorry to see your news.
Yes the Quorum is You, Scrapheap, RobD and I.
I'm seeing the consultant shortly, I'll keep you all updated.
Last time I checked you were in the schismatic republican branch.
My republicanism is on the wane.
Excellent
If it stays that way after the demise of the crown is another matter
My long term plan is to merge the roles of Directly Elected Dictator and Monarch.
As a blue europhile, the whole thread discussion about the multitude of leave campaign groups bickering a la the judeans peoples front is bewildering.
There's simply too many leaves on the political track.
I am so nicking that.
PS Since I'm now Likely to vote Leave, am I going to be expelled from the "Fiscally Dry, Socially Liberal Not Obssesed by the EU, Immigrants, and Gay Tory Party"?
I hope not because that would mean that I am likely to be expelled too. Did we ever fix the quorum?
All the best TSE. I was sorry to see your news.
Yes the Quorum is You, Scrapheap, RobD and I.
I'm seeing the consultant shortly, I'll keep you all updated.
Last time I checked you were in the schismatic republican branch.
My republicanism is on the wane.
ALL the frontrunners in that race make Farage look like an out and out lefty.
Unless you're referring to McIRA's 'republicanism'...
The two most interesting features of a 'Leave' vote would be the resignation of Dave and half his cabinet and the certainty of another Scottish referendum which would likely produce the opposite result to the last one.
My fear is that from becoming gradually more outward looking Endgland would revert to it's old xenophobia self again and the new cosmopolitan spirit that 's emanated from London would start to disappear.
I'm in France at the moment and that cosmopolitan feeling has always been here but it was much later coming to England and it would be a great sadness if we lost it
Typical small mindedness Roger. Only Paris is vaguely cosmopolitan. Most of rural France is decidely introspective, the kind of place where the echangistes sleep with their other sister.
If you walk down a street in even a middling sized English town and you hear people speaking Polish/French/German/ etc it's likely to be commented on. That's not the case in even the smallest of French towns. Lets say Ludlow-en-Loire. On the 'Peage' if you need to speak to anyone they allow you to choose your language. 'As for exchangistes' swapping for the other sister; villages will be villages!
As a blue europhile, the whole thread discussion about the multitude of leave campaign groups bickering a la the judeans peoples front is bewildering.
There's simply too many leaves on the political track.
I am so nicking that.
PS Since I'm now Likely to vote Leave, am I going to be expelled from the "Fiscally Dry, Socially Liberal Not Obssesed by the EU, Immigrants, and Gay Tory Party"?
I hope not because that would mean that I am likely to be expelled too. Did we ever fix the quorum?
All the best TSE. I was sorry to see your news.
Yes the Quorum is You, Scrapheap, RobD and I.
I'm seeing the consultant shortly, I'll keep you all updated.
Last time I checked you were in the schismatic republican branch.
My republicanism is on the wane.
Excellent
If it stays that way after the demise of the crown is another matter
My long term plan is to merge the roles of Directly Elected Dictator and Monarch.
Directly Elected Monarch? Like the Vatican then (well, direct from the College of Cardinals).
As a blue europhile, the whole thread discussion about the multitude of leave campaign groups bickering a la the judeans peoples front is bewildering.
There's simply too many leaves on the political track.
I am so nicking that.
PS Since I'm now Likely to vote Leave, am I going to be expelled from the "Fiscally Dry, Socially Liberal Not Obssesed by the EU, Immigrants, and Gay Tory Party"?
I hope not because that would mean that I am likely to be expelled too. Did we ever fix the quorum?
All the best TSE. I was sorry to see your news.
Yes the Quorum is You, Scrapheap, RobD and I.
I'm seeing the consultant shortly, I'll keep you all updated.
Last time I checked you were in the schismatic republican branch.
My republicanism is on the wane.
ALL the frontrunners in that race make Farage look like an out and out lefty.
Unless you're referring to McIRA's 'republicanism'...
Farage's support for the Spare Room Subsidy shows him to be a lefty.
Cameron is more vulnerable than Corbyn this year I reckon, in contrast to the bookmakers' assesments.
The odds have been the wrong way round from the start. In December Betfair Sports were offering 5/2 on Cameron going before Corbyn, which was commendably bonkers given that Cameron is going before the GE whatever happens.
As a blue europhile, the whole thread discussion about the multitude of leave campaign groups bickering a la the judeans peoples front is bewildering.
There's simply too many leaves on the political track.
I am so nicking that.
PS Since I'm now Likely to vote Leave, am I going to be expelled from the "Fiscally Dry, Socially Liberal Not Obssesed by the EU, Immigrants, and Gay Tory Party"?
I hope not because that would mean that I am likely to be expelled too. Did we ever fix the quorum?
All the best TSE. I was sorry to see your news.
Yes the Quorum is You, Scrapheap, RobD and I.
I'm seeing the consultant shortly, I'll keep you all updated.
Last time I checked you were in the schismatic republican branch.
My republicanism is on the wane.
ALL the frontrunners in that race make Farage look like an out and out lefty.
Unless you're referring to McIRA's 'republicanism'...
Cameron is more vulnerable than Corbyn this year I reckon, in contrast to the bookmakers' assesments.
The odds have been the wrong way round from the start. In December Betfair Sports were offering 5/2 on Cameron going before Corbyn, which was commendably bonkers given that Cameron is going before the GE whatever happens.
I'm holding various betslips on Corbyn exit past 2016 and Corbyn exit 2020.
As a blue europhile, the whole thread discussion about the multitude of leave campaign groups bickering a la the judeans peoples front is bewildering.
There's simply too many leaves on the political track.
I am so nicking that.
PS Since I'm now Likely to vote Leave, am I going to be expelled from the "Fiscally Dry, Socially Liberal Not Obssesed by the EU, Immigrants, and Gay Tory Party"?
I hope not because that would mean that I am likely to be expelled too. Did we ever fix the quorum?
All the best TSE. I was sorry to see your news.
Yes the Quorum is You, Scrapheap, RobD and I.
I'm seeing the consultant shortly, I'll keep you all updated.
Last time I checked you were in the schismatic republican branch.
My republicanism is on the wane.
ALL the frontrunners in that race make Farage look like an out and out lefty.
Unless you're referring to McIRA's 'republicanism'...
As a blue europhile, the whole thread discussion about the multitude of leave campaign groups bickering a la the judeans peoples front is bewildering.
There's simply too many leaves on the political track.
I am so nicking that.
PS Since I'm now Likely to vote Leave, am I going to be expelled from the "Fiscally Dry, Socially Liberal Not Obssesed by the EU, Immigrants, and Gay Tory Party"?
I hope not because that would mean that I am likely to be expelled too. Did we ever fix the quorum?
All the best TSE. I was sorry to see your news.
Yes the Quorum is You, Scrapheap, RobD and I.
I'm seeing the consultant shortly, I'll keep you all updated.
Last time I checked you were in the schismatic republican branch.
My republicanism is on the wane.
Excellent
If it stays that way after the demise of the crown is another matter
My long term plan is to merge the roles of Directly Elected Dictator and Monarch.
Directly Elected Monarch? Like the Vatican then (well, direct from the College of Cardinals).
No, make being Monarch ex officio of being the Directly Elected Dictator.
As long as DC can convey the message of "toughness" over this country's immigration policy (damnme but many people do seem to believe what he says) my bones tell me that "STAY" will win by a Hillary C Iowan maidenhair wisp.
Dave will stay, Osborne would be the fall-guy if Leave wins. Dave will want to oversee the withdrawal negotiations.
Which brings me to another point. Leave can't aim their fire at Dave, he is the nation's least loathed politician, they need to make Osborne the face of Remain. People really, really dislike Osborne. He produces an almost visceral reaction among lefties that I know.
I still hope Cameron doesn't go. EU idiocy aside he is a decent if overly cautious PM. I would prefer someone considerably more radical but in the absence of anyone remotely like that Cameron is a good second.
I am not sure the idea that Osborne has tied himself to the Remain camp and is likely to be the fall guy is widely perceived. He is not being highlighted as a cheerleader at the moment in the media is even though he is obviously clearly Remain I am not sure that has connected with the public perception yet.
He will keep a fairly low profile I think. He's not an idiot and is well aware he's unpopular.
I guess the point of him going, though, is that the Leave side (if it wins) would want some kind of sacrifice in return for acquiescing in Cameron remaining. Also they might want to install a Leave-ish Chancellor to keep Cameron (in their view) honest.
I would suggest under those circumstances Cameron should tell them to go screw themselves. We are voting about leaving the EU not changing the properly elected Government.
I imagine that Cameron would be trying to fend off a direct challenge to his own leadership and wouldn't be in a strong position.
Personally I would like to see both he and Osborne stay and I also think they would respect the referendum result and get on with implementing. I'm not sure that's politically realisitic though. Outers, who had previously been marginalised, would want their time in the sun. (And, to be fair, why shouldn't they?)
This changes nothing. We completely reject any claim that Julian Assange is a victim of arbitrary detention. The UK has already made clear to the UN that we will formally contest the working group’s opinion.
Electoral Commission Almost 1200 UK expats applied to register to vote yesterday on #OVRD - the most this year! You can still register at https://t.co/UWoR0dIyEX
Personally I would like to see both he and Osborne stay and I also think they would respect the referendum result and get on with implementing. I'm not sure that's politically realisitic though. Outers, who had previously been marginalised, would want their time in the sun. (And, to be fair, why shouldn't they?)
They'd both be gone. It wouldn't be realistic for them to handle the exit negotiations, their political capital would have disappeared, and in any case I expect they'd want to disassociate themselves from the political and economic fallout, which would be masssive.
What people are missing is that a Leave result is not the end of the battle, but the beginning of a new and potentially very vicious political war as to what happens next.
And more. It doesn't matter how crap the LEAVE campaign is, they could be led by Mr Tumble and a retarded cucumber, news like this just makes their job too easy:
Absolutely disgusting. Honestly, normal execution is too good for these people. Death by firing squad in a public square where the rest of these people can see the consequences of these actions.
Morris_Dancer: 9:38AM - Mr. Putney, but won't a leadership contest take months? Even if Leave won and he resigned it may drag into 2017.
It could, but if as mooted the referendum is held on my birthday of 23 June, then 6 months + to arrange a leadership election would seem to be time enough.
Surely the obvious timetable would be for Cameron to resign/be pushed asap, a three month campaign and the new leader installed in time for the party conference? This is assuming a June referendum, of course.
And more. It doesn't matter how crap the LEAVE campaign is, they could be led by Mr Tumble and a retarded cucumber, news like this just makes their job too easy:
The two most interesting features of a 'Leave' vote would be the resignation of Dave and half his cabinet and the certainty of another Scottish referendum which would likely produce the opposite result to the last one.
My fear is that from becoming gradually more outward looking Endgland would revert to it's old xenophobia self again and the new cosmopolitan spirit that 's emanated from London would start to disappear.
I'm in France at the moment and that cosmopolitan feeling has always been here but it was much later coming to England and it would be a great sadness if we lost it
Typical small mindedness Roger. Only Paris is vaguely cosmopolitan. Most of rural France is decidely introspective, the kind of place where the echangistes sleep with their other sister.
If you walk down a street in even a middling sized English town and you hear people speaking Polish/French/German/ etc it's likely to be commented on. That's not the case in even the smallest of French towns. Lets say Ludlow-en-Loire. On the 'Peage' if you need to speak to anyone they allow you to choose your language. 'As for exchangistes' swapping for the other sister; villages will be villages!
Roger, the Riviera does not equal 'France'. You'll be lucky to find a resident Pole in the Loire, and the only Germans are tourists, or those visiting their Cold War bolt holes in Brittany.
I wonder if the actual sight of the PM going to Warsaw (as seen on the TV this morning) might not be harming REMAIN. It's so obvious that the PM is asking or begging for permission/co-operation from these foreign leaders ... This doesn't look good, it doesn't look strong. It is a reminder that the Red Card and the Emergency Brake are not quite what the labels imply .... and this all sits uneasily with the obvious fact that this country has provided a lot of work for Poles (the fact that the latter are much better than the indolent/couldn't care less/benefits protected British alternative is neither here nor there), and has done rather a lot for foreign EU workers.
Thanks to Richard Tyndall (edit: and everyone else!)! At age 66, I feel sure I'll be getting more conservative any time soon...
Every journey starts with a single step Nick. In your case that step might be recognising that Corbyn's leadership of your party is sub optimal. 16% behind where Ed was in the last Parliament and scrapping for second place in Scotland...not good.
But that is tomorrow's conundrum. Have a good birthday today.
As a blue europhile, the whole thread discussion about the multitude of leave campaign groups bickering a la the judeans peoples front is bewildering.
There's simply too many leaves on the political track.
I am so nicking that.
PS Since I'm now Likely to vote Leave, am I going to be expelled from the "Fiscally Dry, Socially Liberal Not Obssesed by the EU, Immigrants, and Gay Tory Party"?
I hope not because that would mean that I am likely to be expelled too. Did we ever fix the quorum?
All the best TSE. I was sorry to see your news.
Yes the Quorum is You, Scrapheap, RobD and I.
I'm seeing the consultant shortly, I'll keep you all updated.
Last time I checked you were in the schismatic republican branch.
My republicanism is on the wane.
Excellent
If it stays that way after the demise of the crown is another matter
My long term plan is to merge the roles of Directly Elected Dictator and Monarch.
Directly Elected Monarch? Like the Vatican then (well, direct from the College of Cardinals).
No, make being Monarch ex officio of being the Directly Elected Dictator.
1 man, 1 vote. -> He is the man, he has the vote (Terry Pratchett but I can't remember the book)...
The two most interesting features of a 'Leave' vote would be the resignation of Dave and half his cabinet and the certainty of another Scottish referendum which would likely produce the opposite result to the last one.
My fear is that from becoming gradually more outward looking Endgland would revert to it's old xenophobia self again and the new cosmopolitan spirit that 's emanated from London would start to disappear.
I'm in France at the moment and that cosmopolitan feeling has always been here but it was much later coming to England and it would be a great sadness if we lost it
Typical small mindedness Roger. Only Paris is vaguely cosmopolitan. Most of rural France is decidely introspective, the kind of place where the echangistes sleep with their other sister.
If you walk down a street in even a middling sized English town and you hear people speaking Polish/French/German/ etc it's likely to be commented on. That's not the case in even the smallest of French towns. Lets say Ludlow-en-Loire. On the 'Peage' if you need to speak to anyone they allow you to choose your language. 'As for exchangistes' swapping for the other sister; villages will be villages!
LOL, Roger I'm coming fast to the view you've never been outside London. All the pubs and restaurants round me have E European staff, or Spaniards. My barber is from Lebanon, my car is serviced by a Sikh and my vicar is half Iranian !
As a blue europhile, the whole thread discussion about the multitude of leave campaign groups bickering a la the judeans peoples front is bewildering.
There's simply too many leaves on the political track.
I am so nicking that.
PS Since I'm now Likely to vote Leave, am I going to be expelled from the "Fiscally Dry, Socially Liberal Not Obssesed by the EU, Immigrants, and Gay Tory Party"?
I hope not because that would mean that I am likely to be expelled too. Did we ever fix the quorum?
All the best TSE. I was sorry to see your news.
Yes the Quorum is You, Scrapheap, RobD and I.
I'm seeing the consultant shortly, I'll keep you all updated.
Last time I checked you were in the schismatic republican branch.
My republicanism is on the wane.
Excellent
If it stays that way after the demise of the crown is another matter
My long term plan is to merge the roles of Directly Elected Dictator and Monarch.
Directly Elected Monarch? Like the Vatican then (well, direct from the College of Cardinals).
No, make being Monarch ex officio of being the Directly Elected Dictator.
1 man, 1 vote. -> He is the man, he has the vote (Terry Pratchett but I can't remember the book)...
The franchise for the election to the office of the Directly Elected Dictator includes the Monarch, and only the Monarch.
Personally I would like to see both he and Osborne stay and I also think they would respect the referendum result and get on with implementing. I'm not sure that's politically realisitic though. Outers, who had previously been marginalised, would want their time in the sun. (And, to be fair, why shouldn't they?)
They'd both be gone. It wouldn't be realistic for them to handle the exit negotiations, their political capital would have disappeared, and in any case I expect they'd want to disassociate themselves from the fallout, which will be masssive.
What people are missing is that a Leave result is not the end of the battle, but the beginning of a new and potentially very vicious political war as to what happens next.
Absolutely.
Will be an interesting time for whoever the Conservative leader is. Hey, perhaps John Major fancies another stint. He has the relevant experience.
And more. It doesn't matter how crap the LEAVE campaign is, they could be led by Mr Tumble and a retarded cucumber, news like this just makes their job too easy:
Mr Tumble is far more organised than any of the LEAVE leadership..... However its irrelevant as It is the drip feed of this news from Germany and elsewhere that will take the UK out of the EU. Unless they somehow put a stop to it the momentum is unavoidable....
And more. It doesn't matter how crap the LEAVE campaign is, they could be led by Mr Tumble and a retarded cucumber, news like this just makes their job too easy:
Absolutely disgusting. Honestly, normal execution is too good for these people. Death by firing squad in a public square where the rest of these people can see the consequences of these actions.
Clearly sickening. But we should remember that most Syrian refugees are decent people and are badly tarred by these outrages.
What don't help is the local mayor saying we should respond to brutal gang rapes by 'explaining our values' to them.
I wonder if the actual sight of the PM going to Warsaw (as seen on the TV this morning) might not be harming REMAIN. It's so obvious that the PM is asking or begging for permission/co-operation from these foreign leaders ... This doesn't look good, it doesn't look strong. It is a reminder that the Red Card and the Emergency Brake are not quite what the labels imply .... and this all sits uneasily with the obvious fact that this country has provided a lot of work for Poles (the fact that the latter are much better than the indolent/couldn't care less/benefits protected British alternative is neither here nor there), and has done rather a lot for foreign EU workers.
It's like going round a mates showing off your new shoes and asking what they think without knowing you trod in a massive dog shit on the way round and its all over their carpet
Even the Grauniad doesn't support the UN over Assange:
WikiLeaks made its name by exposing those who ignored the rule of law. Its editor-in-chief should recognise that applies to him as well as the US government....
The UN Working Group on Arbitrary Detention has played a valuable role in highlighting unjust and improper imprisonment, often of political prisoners. .....But its latest opinion, .....that the WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange is being detained arbitrarily, is simply wrong.
I wonder if the actual sight of the PM going to Warsaw (as seen on the TV this morning) might not be harming REMAIN. It's so obvious that the PM is asking or begging for permission/co-operation from these foreign leaders ... This doesn't look good, it doesn't look strong. It is a reminder that the Red Card and the Emergency Brake are not quite what the labels imply .... and this all sits uneasily with the obvious fact that this country has provided a lot of work for Poles (the fact that the latter are much better than the indolent/couldn't care less/benefits protected British alternative is neither here nor there), and has done rather a lot for foreign EU workers.
If he wants to speak to them face to face he doesn't have much choice does he? He can't very well summon other EU leaders to London and give them a good bollocking.
The tables are up for the Times/YouGov Scotland poll. It also asked how people would vote on the question of Scottish independence (brackets indicate change on last month). No 55% (+3%), Yes 45% (-3%).
Jeremy Cliffe Politics of German terror arrests perilous. Main suspect's path: Syria-Balkans-Bavaria-refugee hostel near Cologne. https://t.co/hVsItdDaYW
What are people's thoughts on turnout for the referendum.
Judging by EEC ref correlation to the 72 GEs, perhaps around 52% or so ?
I think it will be quite high. It's going to be very high profile, the stakes are high, there's a lot of strong feeling (which there wasn't in 1975), and it potentially looks to be a close contest (which it didn't in 1975).
Thanks to Richard Tyndall (edit: and everyone else!)! At age 66, I feel sure I'll be getting more conservative any time soon...
That software patch was supposed to kick in when you received your pension, but I guess fighting a general election over-rode it. Kindly report for reprogramming at your earliest convenience...
Personally I would like to see both he and Osborne stay and I also think they would respect the referendum result and get on with implementing. I'm not sure that's politically realisitic though. Outers, who had previously been marginalised, would want their time in the sun. (And, to be fair, why shouldn't they?)
They'd both be gone. It wouldn't be realistic for them to handle the exit negotiations, their political capital would have disappeared, and in any case I expect they'd want to disassociate themselves from the political and economic fallout, which would be masssive.
What people are missing is that a Leave result is not the end of the battle, but the beginning of a new and potentially very vicious political war as to what happens next.
PS Happy Birthday Nick!
Your scenario is certainly familiar to those of us who stared down the barrels of Sindy and contemplated Swinney negotiating with Osborne without a card in his hand.
This would be a bit different though. The UK is a larger percentage of the EU than Scotland is of the UK (roughly 12% to 8%) and, thanks to London, far more important economically. There is the same asymmetry in trade flows between the blocs meaning that the combined EU trade is far, far more important to us than their trade is to them individually (as was the case with Scotland) which is a concern, particularly as it seems to me to be all too likely that others will at least think of following us.
I agree the current leadership would fall, very quickly.
And more. It doesn't matter how crap the LEAVE campaign is, they could be led by Mr Tumble and a retarded cucumber, news like this just makes their job too easy:
This would be a bit different though. The UK is a larger percentage of the EU than Scotland is of the UK (roughly 12% to 8%) and, thanks to London, far more important economically. There is the same asymmetry in trade flows between the blocs meaning that the combined EU trade is far, far more important to us than their trade is to them individually (as was the case with Scotland) which is a concern, particularly as it seems to me to be all too likely that others will at least think of following us.
It's not so much the final result, but the uncertainty in the meantime which poses the economic risk.
For all his luck and good fortune, and actually after 10 years or so I am honestly getting around to actually liking and respecting David Cameron- it takes that little bit more time for a Tory to win me over-, he must be cursing his expedient decision to put the EU membership to a plebiscite.
Cameron's life was so much easier in the coalition when he could blame the LD's for his ills. I cannot remember a time when our two main parties were so seriously in crisis and practically ungovernable. And the LD's reduced to rubble to boot.
Dave will stay, Osborne would be the fall-guy if Leave wins. Dave will want to oversee the withdrawal negotiations.
Which brings me to another point. Leave can't aim their fire at Dave, he is the nation's least loathed politician, they need to make Osborne the face of Remain. People really, really dislike Osborne. He produces an almost visceral reaction among lefties that I know.
I still hope Cameron doesn't go. EU idiocy aside he is a decent if overly cautious PM. I would prefer someone considerably more radical but in the absence of anyone remotely like that Cameron is a good second.
I am not sure the idea that Osborne has tied himself to the Remain camp and is likely to be the fall guy is widely perceived. He is not being highlighted as a cheerleader at the moment in the media is even though he is obviously clearly Remain I am not sure that has connected with the public perception yet.
Cameron has been quite a good PM. I can't think of anyone who realistically could have been PM for the past five years who would have been clearly better. But I have a funny feeling that he is riding for a fall on the EUREF. What will antagonise much moderate opinion IMO is his making out that (in Nigel Lawson's words) 'inconsequential scraps' really amount to something wonderful. It makes him look insincere and people tend to react very badly to that.
And more. It doesn't matter how crap the LEAVE campaign is, they could be led by Mr Tumble and a retarded cucumber, news like this just makes their job too easy:
I was somewhat surprised by that opinion too. It is nice to see a newspaper write something unexpected like that- it shows a level of critical and independent thinking that is good for journalism.
Even the Grauniad doesn't support the UN over Assange:
WikiLeaks made its name by exposing those who ignored the rule of law. Its editor-in-chief should recognise that applies to him as well as the US government....
The UN Working Group on Arbitrary Detention has played a valuable role in highlighting unjust and improper imprisonment, often of political prisoners. .....But its latest opinion, .....that the WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange is being detained arbitrarily, is simply wrong.
Can anyone see how a Leave vote would not be followed by an early general election to get a mandate to negotiate? I can't.
Dunno. I think it would be really quite chaotic. Freedom of movement or not would be the crunch question.
Presumably the establishment generally, the BoE, the CBI, the City, the House of Lords, most Labour MPs, the LibDems, and the Cameroon and some other parts of the Conservative Party (including some of the BOOers) would be trying hard to limit the damage by going for an EEA style deal; the Kippers, some Labour MPs, and the right of Conservative Party would want a looser deal where we don't sign up to freedom of movement. I guess the unions would be split. Politics would be completely shaken up.
The tables are up for the Times/YouGov Scotland poll. It also asked how people would vote on the question of Scottish independence (brackets indicate change on last month). No 55% (+3%), Yes 45% (-3%).
Interestingly, while both Con (93) and SNP (92) retain their support from 2015 on the seat vote - unlike Lab (77) and LibD (65), when it comes to the List vote, only Con (93) holds up, while SNP (78) sees support fall to the same level as Lab (74) with the Greens (10) the main beneficiaries....
Meanwhile Nicola's stratospheric rating slips slightly to +30 (-8), but still comfortably ahead of Keiza at -18 (-5) and Ruth on +4 (+3).
Comments
Yes, Osborne seems to have realised that if he publicly campaigns for remain he will probably increase leave's chances. Which is my point, both leave campaigns need to tie him to remain and make him look like the person central to the renegotiation and the operation to deny Tory MPs a fair go at backing leave.
People really, really don't like him. Even at the few Tory campaigning events I've been to the reaction is mixed and very polarised, the people that like him treat him as the second coming of the messiah and people that don't like him think he is the devil incarnate, there aren't many in between from my experience.
To be honest, I doubt the Tories are second in Scotland at the moment but I do think they're within MoE and as such we will get, as here, the odd poll putting them level or ahead.
There was an amusing projection on twitter of how the poll would pan out in the constituencies - namely a big slab of blue across the Borders, some orange specs in the north and yellow just about everywhere else. And no red.
https://twitter.com/GerryHassan/status/695540845647433728
Norman Smith
The feuding in the Brexit camp rumbles on as @LeaveEUOfficial fire off legal warnings to @vote_leave over "false and defamatory" briefings
I guess the point of him going, though, is that the Leave side (if it wins) would want some kind of sacrifice in return for acquiescing in Cameron remaining. Also they might want to install a Leave-ish Chancellor to keep Cameron (in their view) honest.
There's simply too many leaves on the political track.
If interested in evidence on voters & EU benefits in my @timesredbox see this report https://t.co/aImDSXOWmh #euref https://t.co/jzW2lpkWqq
PS Since I'm now Likely to vote Leave, am I going to be expelled from the "Fiscally Dry, Socially Liberal Not Obssesed by the EU, Immigrants, and Gay Tory Party"?
Things still not going well for Guardian & Toynbee in the comments. They'll have to ban EU comment sections next. https://t.co/8OFhAg1FNe
All the best TSE. I was sorry to see your news.
Which I'm sure everyone wanted to know
It could, but if as mooted the referendum is held on my birthday of 23 June, then 6 months + to arrange a leadership election would seem to be time enough.
I'm seeing the consultant shortly, I'll keep you all updated.
In 2003, it only took eight days from deposing IDS to installing Michael Howard as leader
If it stays that way after the demise of the crown is another matter
Cameron may not have achieved it in time for the referendum (which is going to make life more difficult for him) but the logic of an Inner EZ core and an outer non EZ periphery is so compelling for both sides of the equation that it really should not be that difficult. Conversely, if we go out to the EEA I think we will find that the EU continues to play a very large part in our lives and indeed our laws.
Unless you're referring to McIRA's 'republicanism'...
As long as DC can convey the message of "toughness" over this country's immigration policy (damnme but many people do seem to believe what he says) my bones tell me that "STAY" will win by a Hillary C Iowan maidenhair wisp.
Personally I would like to see both he and Osborne stay and I also think they would respect the referendum result and get on with implementing. I'm not sure that's politically realisitic though. Outers, who had previously been marginalised, would want their time in the sun. (And, to be fair, why shouldn't they?)
This changes nothing. We completely reject any claim that Julian Assange is a victim of arbitrary detention. The UK has already made clear to the UN that we will formally contest the working group’s opinion.
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-disputes-un-working-group-opinion-on-julian-assange
Almost 1200 UK expats applied to register to vote yesterday on #OVRD - the most this year! You can still register at https://t.co/UWoR0dIyEX
What people are missing is that a Leave result is not the end of the battle, but the beginning of a new and potentially very vicious political war as to what happens next.
PS Happy Birthday Nick!
But that is tomorrow's conundrum. Have a good birthday today.
And I live in the arse end of rural Warwickshire.
Will be an interesting time for whoever the Conservative leader is. Hey, perhaps John Major fancies another stint. He has the relevant experience.
Judging by EEC ref correlation to the 72 GEs, perhaps around 52% or so ?
Marshall Petain awaiting the call? I doubt it
What don't help is the local mayor saying we should respond to brutal gang rapes by 'explaining our values' to them.
WikiLeaks made its name by exposing those who ignored the rule of law. Its editor-in-chief should recognise that applies to him as well as the US government....
The UN Working Group on Arbitrary Detention has played a valuable role in highlighting unjust and improper imprisonment, often of political prisoners. .....But its latest opinion, .....that the WikiLeaks founder Julian Assange is being detained arbitrarily, is simply wrong.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/feb/04/the-guardian-view-on-julian-assange-no-victim-of-arbitrary-detention
Politics of German terror arrests perilous. Main suspect's path: Syria-Balkans-Bavaria-refugee hostel near Cologne. https://t.co/hVsItdDaYW
http://news.bbc.co.uk/onthisday/hi/dates/stories/june/6/newsid_2499000/2499297.stm
Maggie for Remain
Unions for Leave
It's a funny old world!
This would be a bit different though. The UK is a larger percentage of the EU than Scotland is of the UK (roughly 12% to 8%) and, thanks to London, far more important economically. There is the same asymmetry in trade flows between the blocs meaning that the combined EU trade is far, far more important to us than their trade is to them individually (as was the case with Scotland) which is a concern, particularly as it seems to me to be all too likely that others will at least think of following us.
I agree the current leadership would fall, very quickly.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world/europe
Still, the lawyers will do well!
Cameron's life was so much easier in the coalition when he could blame the LD's for his ills. I cannot remember a time when our two main parties were so seriously in crisis and practically ungovernable. And the LD's reduced to rubble to boot.
http://www.itv.com/news/westcountry/2016-02-05/warning-issues-after-apparent-spate-of-squirrel-attacks/
Puts a different spin on PB 'Look Squirrel' comments.
I was mistaken upthread - 28 sex assaults in Cologne last night not 18.
Presumably the establishment generally, the BoE, the CBI, the City, the House of Lords, most Labour MPs, the LibDems, and the Cameroon and some other parts of the Conservative Party (including some of the BOOers) would be trying hard to limit the damage by going for an EEA style deal; the Kippers, some Labour MPs, and the right of Conservative Party would want a looser deal where we don't sign up to freedom of movement. I guess the unions would be split. Politics would be completely shaken up.
Meanwhile Nicola's stratospheric rating slips slightly to +30 (-8), but still comfortably ahead of Keiza at -18 (-5) and Ruth on +4 (+3).
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/xqh3y5ghb2/TimesResults_JanFeb16_ScotlandVI_Leaders_Tax_Fracking_Refugees_Website.pdf