politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tonight’s local by-election line-up: 3 CON defences and a L
Comments
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it's only fair. The Press have dumped buckets of shit over the Labour Party.flightpath01 said:
The trend is to belittle the government by the press -its self interest from them to see weak government - and to diminish Cameron from his opponents - simple bitterness. The issue of Europe is just the McGuffin.Wanderer said:
Oh, Remain has some cards in its hand for sure. Still, it's been a bad two days for it. (I personally support Remain fwiw so I'm not talking up my own fancy, nor book, as I haven't bet yet.)EPG said:
Remain will not be running on Cam's pieces of paper but on fear of losing big employers from the South East and some urban centres elsewhereWanderer said:
I think even an even(ish) split is bad for Remain at this point. The last couple of days have been Remain's moment, it's unveiling of the goods. If it's not ahead now it's, hmm, tricky.TheScreamingEagles said:twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/695384763335446528
There is a referendum, a vote.
Vote for gawds sake. Cut the crap, just vote.
It won't make much difference - you are a fool if you think so. Being in the EEA will be pretty much the same - except we will have to start negotiating all over again.0 -
If NATO didn't that would be the end of NATO, and Turkey would be only the beginning of our problems.williamglenn said:If Russia contrives a situation in which they come into open conflict with Turkey, will NATO really fall into line behind them? It's very doubtful.
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I've only given my kind words obliquely, but they are still there.TheScreamingEagles said:Thank you everyone for the kind words tonight.
Good night everybody.0 -
They joined the Eurozone in 2001, but then you knew that's what I meant.foxinsoxuk said:
Greece joined the EU in 1981 as I recall, well before its recent problems.nigel4england said:
An EU application also requires financial stability, as the Greeks had to prove when they joined.foxinsoxuk said:
An EU application requires all sorts of democratic, human rights, and economic progress. It is a major carrot for these countries.rcs1000 said:
I'm going to put my @Socrates hat on here: those ex Communist countries that joined the EU and looked West have done a lot better than those who stuck with Russia. Doesn't mean it couldn't have happened with some kind of EFTA/EEA, but it's hard to claim that EU membership has been a disaster for the Baltics (for example).Richard_Tyndall said:
All but three of those were former Iron Curtain countries and the EU had sweet FA to do with freeing them from that yoke.foxinsoxuk said:@Perdix
The point about social protection is that the legislation is from the EU, not from Westminster. We could have passed those laws but did not. Leave puts them under threat.
Well within my lifetime Spain, Portugal, Greece, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, Croatia, Slovenia, the Czech republic, Slovakia, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia were all dictatorships and many very poorly governed. EU membership was a major driver for each of these to develop democratic and economically modern economies. We should be proud of our part in bringing these countries out of their darkness and backwardness. There is clearly much remaining to be done, and Britons should not shirk from completing the job. Britain is best served by a democratic and economically open Europe, which is one reason that staying in the EU is in our own interests.
Are you claiming that the newly liberated eastern bloc countries were so poorly led they were incapable of becoming functioning democracies without the EU?
Imperfect they may be, but these are much better places for the existence of the EU.
If you spend far more money than you raise in taxes over a prolonged period then the economy goes tits up, whether in or out of the EU or Euro. Its not rocket science!
In all my 60 years I don't think I have ever met a more duplicitous group of people as Europhiles.0 -
Iirc the Greeks pretty heavily cooked the books in order to qualify for the Euro.foxinsoxuk said:
Greece joined the EU in 1981 as I recall, well before its recent problems.nigel4england said:
An EU application also requires financial stability, as the Greeks had to prove when they joined.foxinsoxuk said:
An EU application requires all sorts of democratic, human rights, and economic progress. It is a major carrot for these countries.rcs1000 said:
I'm going to put my @Socrates hat on here: those ex Communist countries that joined the EU and looked West have done a lot better than those who stuck with Russia. Doesn't mean it couldn't have happened with some kind of EFTA/EEA, but it's hard to claim that EU membership has been a disaster for the Baltics (for example).Richard_Tyndall said:
All but three of those were former Iron Curtain countries and the EU had sweet FA to do with freeing them from that yoke.foxinsoxuk said:@Perdix
The point about social protection is that the legislation is from the EU, not from Westminster. We could have passed those laws but did not. Leave puts them under threat.
Well within my lifetime Spain, Portugal, Greece, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, Croatia, Slovenia, the Czech republic, Slovakia, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia were all dictatorships and many very poorly governed. EU membership was a major driver for each of these to develop democratic and economically modern economies. We should be proud of our part in bringing these countries out of their darkness and backwardness. There is clearly much remaining to be done, and Britons should not shirk from completing the job. Britain is best served by a democratic and economically open Europe, which is one reason that staying in the EU is in our own interests.
Are you claiming that the newly liberated eastern bloc countries were so poorly led they were incapable of becoming functioning democracies without the EU?
Imperfect they may be, but these are much better places for the existence of the EU.
If you spend far more money than you raise in taxes over a prolonged period then the economy goes tits up, whether in or out of the EU or Euro. Its not rocket science!0 -
Factual though.TheScreamingEagles said:
Stupid post.Casino_Royale said:
The Tory Party is the true Pro EU party.TheScreamingEagles said:
http://www.totalpolitics.com/opinion/456346/david-cameronand39s-eu-gear-change-sets-him-far-apart-from-his-tory-predecessors.thtmlDanny565 said:
You won't like this article much more eitherCasino_Royale said:
Articles calling Dave "the accidental europhile", and saying this vindicates what pro-Europeans have been saying for years, really really aren't going to help him with the internal party politics.Sean_F said:
They'd applaud him if he said he was taking the UK into the Euro.Danny565 said:The Economist applauds Cameron for making a "muscular pro-European argument":
http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21690029-david-camerons-weedy-renegotiation-makes-muscular-pro-european-argument-accidental?fsrc=scn/tw/te/pe/ed/TheaccidentalEurophile
calling Cameron the most pro-European Tory leader since Heath:
With a resolute flourish the Prime Minister declared that under his new terms he "sure would" have been keen to join the EU if the UK was not currently a member. As if to reiterate the point Cameron promised to make the case with "passion" in the coming months, again with the ritualistic qualification that he still has to negotiate his way through next month’s EU summit.
There is no inevitability about such a level of prime ministerial commitment. In 1975 the then Prime Minister, Harold Wilson, kept the lowest of low profiles during the In/Out referendum he had called. Wilson was virtually nowhere. Cameron will be ubiquitous.
What was so unusual was to hear a Conservative leader make a ringing endorsement for UK’s membership of the EU, or as Cameron will continue to put it, "a reformed EU". In a very different context he will be the first Conservative leader to make this case with "passion" since Edward Heath.
Heath took us in, Thatcher signed the Single European Act, and Dave might be the one that keeps us in for a generation.
I'm in a mood tonight, so you're all going to feel my acidic tongue tonight.
Came home to a letter saying I'm at real risk of losing my sight.
Sorry to hear this,hope everything goes Ok.0 -
Like I said, the job is not yet done, so we need to Remain.MP_SE said:
The EU was very flexible when it came to some of the newer members, i.e. turning a blind eye to high levels of corruption.foxinsoxuk said:
An EU application requires all sorts of democratic, human rights, and economic progress. It is a major carrot for these countries.rcs1000 said:
I'm going to put my @Socrates hat on here: those ex Communist countries that joined the EU and looked West have done a lot better than those who stuck with Russia. Doesn't mean it couldn't have happened with some kind of EFTA/EEA, but it's hard to claim that EU membership has been a disaster for the Baltics (for example).Richard_Tyndall said:
All but three of those were former Iron Curtain countries and the EU had sweet FA to do with freeing them from that yoke.foxinsoxuk said:@Perdix
The point about social protection is that the legislation is from the EU, not from Westminster. We could have passed those laws but did not. Leave puts them under threat.
Well within my lifetime Spain, Portugal, Greece, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, Croatia, Slovenia, the Czech republic, Slovakia, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia were all dictatorships and many very poorly governed. EU membership was a major driver for each of these to develop democratic and economically modern economies. We should be proud of our part in bringing these countries out of their darkness and backwardness. There is clearly much remaining to be done, and Britons should not shirk from completing the job. Britain is best served by a democratic and economically open Europe, which is one reason that staying in the EU is in our own interests.
Are you claiming that the newly liberated eastern bloc countries were so poorly led they were incapable of becoming functioning democracies without the EU?
Imperfect they may be, but these are much better places for the existence of the EU.0 -
Just watching the final episode of Occupied. A Norwegian drama set in the very near future, in which Nato has collapsed and the USA is no longer interested in getting involved in conflicts outside its shores. A new prime minister for Norway announces that he is closing the gas and oil fields, but in return will share the country's knowledge on thorium energy.Richard_Nabavi said:
Not just the small countries on the eastern fringe. The Balkans, the Czech Republic, Austria, Hungary, Poland, the Netherlands, even Italy and Spain: all of these countries are either relatively new nation-states which have for centuries been subject to various tyrannies from outside, or have been outside the European mainstream for most of the post-war period. Their perspective is completely different from ours. And the same is true, for different reasons, for France and Germany.rcs1000 said:I was in Latvia about 18 months ago, just a few weeks before they joined the Euro, and I asked my taxi driver:
"You're about to join the Euro, are you mad?" (or some such)
and he replied
"If your neighbour was Russia, you'd want to be as much a part of Europe as possible."
It was interesting how different their perspective was. And I think we all need to realise that our choices, as an island on the far West of Europe, are very different to those of a tiny country with an aggressive next door neighbour.
The Russians decide to 'secure' these oil fields and essentially occupy the country. All with the utter craven support of the EU.0 -
And you are not stuck in a groove? Grow up you sad article.Richard_Tyndall said:
LOL. The stuck Cameroon record playing yet again.flightpath01 said:
The trend is to belittle the government by the press -its self interest from them top see weak government - and to diminish Cameron from his opponents - simple bitterness. The issue of Europe is just the McGuffin.Wanderer said:
Oh, Remain has some cards in its hand for sure. Still, it's been a bad two days for it. (I personally support Remain fwiw so I'm not talking up my own fancy, nor book, as I haven't bet yet.)EPG said:
Remain will not be running on Cam's pieces of paper but on fear of losing big employers from the South East and some urban centres elsewhereWanderer said:
I think even an even(ish) split is bad for Remain at this point. The last couple of days have been Remain's moment, it's unveiling of the goods. If it's not ahead now it's, hmm, tricky.TheScreamingEagles said:twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/695384763335446528
There is a referendum, a vote.
Vote for gawds sake. Cut the crap, just vote.
It won't make much difference - you are a fool if you think so. Being in the EEA will be pretty much the same - except we will have to start negotiating all over again.
You have a vote -- A VOTE! -- this is not a government whipping a vote through parliament.
It is a referendum and you can vote.
We all can and we can all think about it and take the consequences. No one to blame but you YOU for your vote and its outcome.
But one way or another I suspect weasels like you will always find a way to blame someone else.0 -
*** By-Election Alert ***
RIP Harry Harpham, MP for Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough.0 -
Lying ignorant Eurofanatics like you are of course a prime and justified target for blame.flightpath01 said:
And you are not stuck in a groove? Grow up you sad article.Richard_Tyndall said:
LOL. The stuck Cameroon record playing yet again.flightpath01 said:
The trend is to belittle the government by the press -its self interest from them top see weak government - and to diminish Cameron from his opponents - simple bitterness. The issue of Europe is just the McGuffin.Wanderer said:
Oh, Remain has some cards in its hand for sure. Still, it's been a bad two days for it. (I personally support Remain fwiw so I'm not talking up my own fancy, nor book, as I haven't bet yet.)EPG said:
Remain will not be running on Cam's pieces of paper but on fear of losing big employers from the South East and some urban centres elsewhereWanderer said:
I think even an even(ish) split is bad for Remain at this point. The last couple of days have been Remain's moment, it's unveiling of the goods. If it's not ahead now it's, hmm, tricky.TheScreamingEagles said:twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/695384763335446528
There is a referendum, a vote.
Vote for gawds sake. Cut the crap, just vote.
It won't make much difference - you are a fool if you think so. Being in the EEA will be pretty much the same - except we will have to start negotiating all over again.
You have a vote -- A VOTE! -- this is not a government whipping a vote through parliament.
It is a referendum and you can vote.
We all can and we can all think about it and take the consequences. No one to blame but you YOU for your vote and its outcome.
But one way or another I suspect weasels like you will always find a way to blame someone else.0 -
I think it's naive for the Leave side to think the economic risks of Brexit won't be a big factor - the decisive factor, IMO. Here are first few links to come up on a search (I'm not saying these are right, just that they are the prevailing view of mostly independent, or at least independent-sounding, sources):
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/feb/04/brexit--slash-sterling-20-warns-goldman-sachs
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/1a86ab36-afbe-11e5-b955-1a1d298b6250.html#axzz3zFLD0E9M
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jan/25/brexit-would-trigger-economic-financial-shock-for-uk
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2016-01-07/how-brexit-fears-are-beginning-to-impact-u-k-economy
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-01/here-s-what-happens-to-the-u-k-economy-in-a-brexit-scenario
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/12122506/Devastating-Brexit-will-consign-Europe-to-a-second-rate-world-power-warns-Deutsche-Bank.html
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jan/23/brexit-fears-fuel-market-turmoil-imf-chief-says
The Leave side need a pretty good answer to that lot (and one that's better than 'Europhile scaremongering')
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I can beat that. I've met one of the ex-Presidents of Latvia (obviously briefly!). She found the UK's Euroscepticism alternately baffling and worrying, albeit phrased most diplomatically.rcs1000 said:
I was in Latvia about 18 months ago, just a few weeks before they joined the Euro, and I asked my taxi driver:
"You're about to join the Euro, are you mad?" (or some such)
and he replied
"If your neighbour was Russia, you'd want to be as much a part of Europe as possible."
It was interesting how different their perspective was. And I think we all need to realise that our choices, as an island on the far West of Europe, are very different to those of a tiny country with an aggressive next door neighbour.0 -
Thats nothing to do with joining the EC or EU. It was 20 years or so later that they joined the Euro.corporeal said:
Iirc the Greeks pretty heavily cooked the books in order to qualify for the Euro.foxinsoxuk said:
Greece joined the EU in 1981 as I recall, well before its recent problems.nigel4england said:
An EU application also requires financial stability, as the Greeks had to prove when they joined.foxinsoxuk said:
An EU application requires all sorts of democratic, human rights, and economic progress. It is a major carrot for these countries.rcs1000 said:
I'm going to put my @Socrates hat on here: those ex Communist countries that joined the EU and looked West have done a lot better than those who stuck with Russia. Doesn't mean it couldn't have happened with some kind of EFTA/EEA, but it's hard to claim that EU membership has been a disaster for the Baltics (for example).Richard_Tyndall said:
All but three of those were former Iron Curtain countries and the EU had sweet FA to do with freeing them from that yoke.foxinsoxuk said:@Perdix
The point about social protection is that the legislation is from the EU, not from Westminster. We could have passed those laws but did not. Leave puts them under threat.
Well within my lifetime Spain, Portugal, Greece, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, Croatia, Slovenia, the Czech republic, Slovakia, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia were all dictatorships and many very poorly governed. EU membership was a major driver for each of these to develop democratic and economically modern economies. We should be proud of our part in bringing these countries out of their darkness and backwardness. There is clearly much remaining to be done, and Britons should not shirk from completing the job. Britain is best served by a democratic and economically open Europe, which is one reason that staying in the EU is in our own interests.
Are you claiming that the newly liberated eastern bloc countries were so poorly led they were incapable of becoming functioning democracies without the EU?
Imperfect they may be, but these are much better places for the existence of the EU.
If you spend far more money than you raise in taxes over a prolonged period then the economy goes tits up, whether in or out of the EU or Euro. Its not rocket science!
The Euro was badly implemented. The Eurozone have to live with what they started - they were foolish. A struggling Eurozone economy is equally bad news for our industry0 -
Sterling down by 20%, Richard ?Richard_Nabavi said:I think it's naive for the Leave side to think the economic risks of Brexit won't be a big factor - the decisive factor, IMO. Here are first few links to come up on a search (I'm not saying these are right, just that they are the prevailing view of mostly independent, or at least independent-sounding, sources):
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/feb/04/brexit--slash-sterling-20-warns-goldman-sachs
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/1a86ab36-afbe-11e5-b955-1a1d298b6250.html#axzz3zFLD0E9M
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jan/25/brexit-would-trigger-economic-financial-shock-for-uk
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2016-01-07/how-brexit-fears-are-beginning-to-impact-u-k-economy
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-01/here-s-what-happens-to-the-u-k-economy-in-a-brexit-scenario
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/12122506/Devastating-Brexit-will-consign-Europe-to-a-second-rate-world-power-warns-Deutsche-Bank.html
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jan/23/brexit-fears-fuel-market-turmoil-imf-chief-says
The Leave side need a pretty good answer to that lot (and one that's better than 'Europhile scaremongering')
A dream come true. We'd be able to undercut the Germans even more.0 -
It would be wonderful for me!Pulpstar said:Sterling down by 20%, Richard ?
A dream come true. We'd be able to undercut the Germans even more.0 -
Indeed. With the connivance of both the EU and Goldman Sachs who are now making all sorts of dire claims for Brexit. It's a shame someone as opinionated as Foxinsox seemingly knows so little about the subject.corporeal said:
Iirc the Greeks pretty heavily cooked the books in order to qualify for the Euro.foxinsoxuk said:
Greece joined the EU in 1981 as I recall, well before its recent problems.nigel4england said:
An EU application also requires financial stability, as the Greeks had to prove when they joined.foxinsoxuk said:
An EU application requires all sorts of democratic, human rights, and economic progress. It is a major carrot for these countries.rcs1000 said:
I'm going to put my @Socrates hat on here: those ex Communist countries that joined the EU and looked West have done a lot better than those who stuck with Russia. Doesn't mean it couldn't have happened with some kind of EFTA/EEA, but it's hard to claim that EU membership has been a disaster for the Baltics (for example).Richard_Tyndall said:
All but three of those were former Iron Curtain countries and the EU had sweet FA to do with freeing them from that yoke.foxinsoxuk said:@Perdix
The point about social protection is that the legislation is from the EU, not from Westminster. We could have passed those laws but did not. Leave puts them under threat.
Well within my lifetime Spain, Portugal, Greece, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, Croatia, Slovenia, the Czech republic, Slovakia, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia were all dictatorships and many very poorly governed. EU membership was a major driver for each of these to develop democratic and economically modern economies. We should be proud of our part in bringing these countries out of their darkness and backwardness. There is clearly much remaining to be done, and Britons should not shirk from completing the job. Britain is best served by a democratic and economically open Europe, which is one reason that staying in the EU is in our own interests.
Are you claiming that the newly liberated eastern bloc countries were so poorly led they were incapable of becoming functioning democracies without the EU?
Imperfect they may be, but these are much better places for the existence of the EU.
If you spend far more money than you raise in taxes over a prolonged period then the economy goes tits up, whether in or out of the EU or Euro. Its not rocket science!0 -
Con ahead of Labour in a YouGov Scottish poll - 20 constituency, 20 list for Con and 19/20 for Labour.0
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I just pointed out that Greece joined the EU in 1981 and had to demonstrate commitment to democracy and a free economy to do so, and for all Greece's faults these are now heavily ingrained there. Indeed the fact that democracy has survived the recent crisis shows how strong it is.nigel4england said:
They joined the Eurozone in 2001, but then you knew that's what I meant.foxinsoxuk said:
Greece joined the EU in 1981 as I recall, well before its recent problems.nigel4england said:
An EU application also requires financial stability, as the Greeks had to prove when they joined.foxinsoxuk said:
An EU application requires all sorts of democratic, human rights, and economic progress. It is a major carrot for these countries.rcs1000 said:
I'm going to put my @Socrates hat on here: those ex Communist countries that joined the EU and looked West have done a lot better than those who stuck with Russia. Doesn't mean it couldn't have happened with some kind of EFTA/EEA, but it's hard to claim that EU membership has been a disaster for the Baltics (for example).Richard_Tyndall said:
All but three of those were former Iron Curtain countries and the EU had sweet FA to do with freeing them from that yoke.foxinsoxuk said:@Perdix
The point about social protection is that the legislation is from the EU, not from Westminster. We could have passed those laws but did not. Leave puts them under
Are you claiming that the newly liberated eastern bloc countries were so poorly led they were incapable of becoming functioning democracies without the EU?
Imperfect they may be, but these are much better places for the existence of the EU.
If you spend far more money than you raise in taxes over a prolonged period then the economy goes tits up, whether in or out of the EU or Euro. Its not rocket science!
In all my 60 years I don't think I have ever met a more duplicitous group of people as Europhiles.
Greece joined the Euro in 2001. They did fiddle some figures to enter, but the real problem is that they took advantage of the resulting low interest rates to borrow far more than they could afford to repay. The EU cannot protect countries against themselves, at least as arranged at present.0 -
Being accused of being opinionated by you has just bust my irony meter!Richard_Tyndall said:
Indeed. With the connivance of both the EU and Goldman Sachs who are now making all sorts of dire claims for Brexit. It's a shame someone as opinionated as Foxinsox seemingly knows so little about the subject.corporeal said:
Iirc the Greeks pretty heavily cooked the books in order to qualify for the Euro.foxinsoxuk said:
Greece joined the EU in 1981 as I recall, well before its recent problems.nigel4england said:
An EU application also requires financial stability, as the Greeks had to prove when they joined.foxinsoxuk said:
An EU application requires all sorts of democratic, human rights, and economic progress. It is a major carrot for these countries.rcs1000 said:
I'm going to put my @Socrates hat on here: those ex Communist countries that joined the EU and looked West have done a lot better than those who stuck with Russia. Doesn't mean it couldn't have happened with some kind of EFTA/EEA, but it's hard to claim that EU membership has been a disaster for the Baltics (for example).Richard_Tyndall said:
All but three of those were former Iron Curtain countries and the EU had sweet FA to do with freeing them from that yoke.foxinsoxuk said:@Perdix
The point about social protection is that the legislation is from the EU, not from Westminster. We could have passed those laws but did not. Leave puts them under threat.
Well within my lifetime Spain, Portugal, Greece, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, Croatia, Slovenia, the Czech republic, Slovakia, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia were all dictatorships and many very poorly governed. EU membership was a major driver for each of these to develop democratic and economically modern economies. We should be proud of our part in bringing these countries out of their darkness and backwardness. There is clearly much remaining to be done, and Britons should not shirk from completing the job. Britain is best served by a democratic and economically open Europe, which is one reason that staying in the EU is in our own interests.
Are you claiming that the newly liberated eastern bloc countries were so poorly led they were incapable of becoming functioning democracies without the EU?
Imperfect they may be, but these are much better places for the existence of the EU.
If you spend far more money than you raise in taxes over a prolonged period then the economy goes tits up, whether in or out of the EU or Euro. Its not rocket science!0 -
Wow!notme said:
Just watching the final episode of Occupied. A Norwegian drama set in the very near future, in which Nato has collapsed and the USA is no longer interested in getting involved in conflicts outside its shores. A new prime minister for Norway announces that he is closing the gas and oil fields, but in return will share the country's knowledge on thorium energy.Richard_Nabavi said:
Not just the small countries on the eastern fringe. The Balkans, the Czech Republic, Austria, Hungary, Poland, the Netherlands, even Italy and Spain: all of these countries are either relatively new nation-states which have for centuries been subject to various tyrannies from outside, or have been outside the European mainstream for most of the post-war period. Their perspective is completely different from ours. And the same is true, for different reasons, for France and Germany.rcs1000 said:I was in Latvia about 18 months ago, just a few weeks before they joined the Euro, and I asked my taxi driver:
"You're about to join the Euro, are you mad?" (or some such)
and he replied
"If your neighbour was Russia, you'd want to be as much a part of Europe as possible."
It was interesting how different their perspective was. And I think we all need to realise that our choices, as an island on the far West of Europe, are very different to those of a tiny country with an aggressive next door neighbour.
The Russians decide to 'secure' these oil fields and essentially occupy the country. All with the utter craven support of the EU.
What a captivating work of fiction. All utterly predicated on the 'collapse of NATO'. What a convenient plot device. 'the very near future' ? ha ha.
Er... So?
Are we expected to abandon generations of policy commitments on the basis of a crap piece of television fiction?
BTW - The Hunt for Red October was a bit of fiction not a documentary.0 -
Toby Young ✔ @toadmeister
Jazz musician on #bbctw just said that Cecil Rhodes was a “predatory paedophile”. Eh? Anyone else heard that allegation?
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Barclays and HSBC say City will thrive after BrexitRichard_Nabavi said:I think it's naive for the Leave side to think the economic risks of Brexit won't be a big factor - the decisive factor, IMO. Here are first few links to come up on a search (I'm not saying these are right, just that they are the prevailing view of mostly independent, or at least independent-sounding, sources):
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/feb/04/brexit--slash-sterling-20-warns-goldman-sachs
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/1a86ab36-afbe-11e5-b955-1a1d298b6250.html#axzz3zFLD0E9M
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jan/25/brexit-would-trigger-economic-financial-shock-for-uk
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2016-01-07/how-brexit-fears-are-beginning-to-impact-u-k-economy
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-01/here-s-what-happens-to-the-u-k-economy-in-a-brexit-scenario
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/12122506/Devastating-Brexit-will-consign-Europe-to-a-second-rate-world-power-warns-Deutsche-Bank.html
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jan/23/brexit-fears-fuel-market-turmoil-imf-chief-says
The Leave side need a pretty good answer to that lot (and one that's better than 'Europhile scaremongering')
http://www.cityam.com/231841/eu-referendum-barclays-hsbc-bosses-give-evidence-to-mps-on-britains-eu-membership-say-city-would-thrive-after-brexit0 -
Buy your Euros now if you are voting leave. How patriotic is that?Richard_Nabavi said:
It would be wonderful for me!Pulpstar said:Sterling down by 20%, Richard ?
A dream come true. We'd be able to undercut the Germans even more.0 -
YouGov poll seems odd in the sense that people think deal is bad but if deal is agreed the Leave lead drops to 4% (ie 52-48).
How do we reconcile that?0 -
If I were you I would concentrate on the idea that you are ignorant.foxinsoxuk said:
Being accused of being opinionated by you has just bust my irony meter!Richard_Tyndall said:
Indeed. With the connivance of both the EU and Goldman Sachs who are now making all sorts of dire claims for Brexit. It's a shame someone as opinionated as Foxinsox seemingly knows so little about the subject.corporeal said:
Iirc the Greeks pretty heavily cooked the books in order to qualify for the Euro.foxinsoxuk said:
Greece joined the EU in 1981 as I recall, well before its recent problems.nigel4england said:
An EU application also requires financial stability, as the Greeks had to prove when they joined.foxinsoxuk said:
An EU application requires all sorts of democratic, human rights, and economic progress. It is a major carrot for these countries.rcs1000 said:
I'm going to put my @Socrates hat on here: those ex Communist countries that joined the EU and looked West have done a lot better than those who stuck with Russia. Doesn't mean it couldn't have happened with some kind of EFTA/EEA, but it's hard to claim that EU membership has been a disaster for the Baltics (for example).Richard_Tyndall said:
All but three of those were former Iron Curtain countries and the EU had sweet FA to do with freeing them from that yoke.foxinsoxuk said:@Perdix
The point about social protection is that the legislation is from the EU, not from Westminster. We could have passed those laws but did not. Leave puts them under threat.
Well within my lifetime Spain, Portugal, Greece, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, Croatia, Slovenia, the Czech republic, Slovakia, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia were all dictatorships and many very poorly governed. EU membership was a major driver for each of these to develop democratic and economically modern economies. We should be proud of our part in bringing these countries out of their darkness and backwardness. There is clearly much remaining to be done, and Britons should not shirk from completing the job. Britain is best served by a democratic and economically open Europe, which is one reason that staying in the EU is in our own interests.
Are you claiming that the newly liberated eastern bloc countries were so poorly led they were incapable of becoming functioning democracies without the EU?
Imperfect they may be, but these are much better places for the existence of the EU.
If you spend far more money than you raise in taxes over a prolonged period then the economy goes tits up, whether in or out of the EU or Euro. Its not rocket science!0 -
Everything we import up by 20%, on top of the tariffs? Inflation boost?Pulpstar said:
Sterling down by 20%, Richard ?Richard_Nabavi said:I think it's naive for the Leave side to think the economic risks of Brexit won't be a big factor - the decisive factor, IMO. Here are first few links to come up on a search (I'm not saying these are right, just that they are the prevailing view of mostly independent, or at least independent-sounding, sources):
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/feb/04/brexit--slash-sterling-20-warns-goldman-sachs
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/1a86ab36-afbe-11e5-b955-1a1d298b6250.html#axzz3zFLD0E9M
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jan/25/brexit-would-trigger-economic-financial-shock-for-uk
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2016-01-07/how-brexit-fears-are-beginning-to-impact-u-k-economy
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-01/here-s-what-happens-to-the-u-k-economy-in-a-brexit-scenario
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/12122506/Devastating-Brexit-will-consign-Europe-to-a-second-rate-world-power-warns-Deutsche-Bank.html
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jan/23/brexit-fears-fuel-market-turmoil-imf-chief-says
The Leave side need a pretty good answer to that lot (and one that's better than 'Europhile scaremongering')
A dream come true. We'd be able to undercut the Germans even more.
Foreign owned exporting countries sending their profits abroad.
0 -
-
"So in order to obviate this problem," he continued, "and effectively revalue the leaf, we are about to embark on a massive defoliation campaign, and...er, burn down all the forests. I think you'll all agree that's a sensible move under the circumstances.”Pulpstar said:Sterling down by 20%, Richard ?
A dream come true. We'd be able to undercut the Germans even more.
0 -
On the debtors ledger, @flightpath01.flightpath01 said:
Buy your Euros now if you are voting leave. How patriotic is that?Richard_Nabavi said:
It would be wonderful for me!Pulpstar said:Sterling down by 20%, Richard ?
A dream come true. We'd be able to undercut the Germans even more.0 -
Because the best treatment might not be in this country?flightpath01 said:
I wish Mr Eagles well - it must be very worrying, but why do you think he needs to pay for advice about his treatment?MarqueeMark said:
Hell, that's rough. Get the best medical advice you can afford.TheScreamingEagles said:
Factual though.
I'm in a mood tonight, so you're all going to feel my acidic tongue tonight.
Came home to a letter saying I'm at real risk of losing my sight.
My wife has had excellent treatment for her eyes, on the NHS. She also had excellent treatment for her thyroid condition. By all means ask for second opinions or enquire about the available consultants and leading specialists. But why suggest pay.0 -
Sure, but they don't say there won't be economic damage:Richard_Tyndall said:Barclays and HSBC say City will thrive after Brexit
http://www.cityam.com/231841/eu-referendum-barclays-hsbc-bosses-give-evidence-to-mps-on-britains-eu-membership-say-city-would-thrive-after-brexit
When asked whether he thought London’s status as a financial hub would suffer in the event of Brexit, Chew was less certain than Astaire, saying the City’s outcome would “very much depend on the nature of the exit” and the institutional arrangements that were put in place between Britain and Brussels.
There are obviously going to be lots of different views, but a lot of authoritative-sounding people (probably the vast majority) are going to be saying it's bad for the economy and jobs. Voters won't know who to believe, so will play safe and vote Remain. I think, and I've always thought, that it is incredibly difficult for the Leave side to counter that.0 -
Scottish net approval ratings.
Sturgeon plus 30
Davidson plus 4
Dugdale minus 180 -
Couple of Tory losses...
Britain Elects @britainelects
Green GAIN Oswestry South (Shropshire) from Conservative.
Britain Elects @britainelects
Independent GAIN Hexham West (Northumberland) from Conservative.0 -
It's a conservative nation. This is why Dugdale's plan to put up the BR of tax will go down like cold sick.TheScreamingEagles said:Scottish net approval ratings.
Sturgeon plus 30
Davidson plus 4
Dugdale minus 180 -
Oswestry South (Shropshire) result:
GRN: 48.8% (+17.1)
CON: 34.6% (-11.4)
LAB: 9.0% (+9.0)
LDEM: 7.6% (+1.8)0 -
Something something surge?TheScreamingEagles said:
0 -
Not much to cheer for tonight for the blues. Opposition doing well everywhere, though still falling a little short in Cambs.Tissue_Price said:Couple of Tory losses...
Britain Elects @britainelects
Green GAIN Oswestry South (Shropshire) from Conservative.
Britain Elects @britainelects
Independent GAIN Hexham West (Northumberland) from Conservative.0 -
Presumably the Independent in Hexham is LibDemesque in some way?0
-
Changes since OctoberPulpstar said:
It's a conservative nation. This is why Dugdale's plan to put up the BR of tax will go down like cold sick.TheScreamingEagles said:Scottish net approval ratings.
Sturgeon plus 30
Davidson plus 4
Dugdale minus 18
Sturgeon minus 8
Dugdale minus 5
Davidson plus 30 -
Diane James and Nuttall not stuck on trains or planes this evening.......0
-
Of course its fiction, who said otherwise?flightpath01 said:
Wow!notme said:
Just watching the final episode of Occupied. A Norwegian drama set in the very near future, in which Nato has collapsed and the USA is no longer interested in getting involved in conflicts outside its shores. A new prime minister for Norway announces that he is closing the gas and oil fields, but in return will share the country's knowledge on thorium energy.Richard_Nabavi said:
Not just the small countries on the eastern fringe. The Balkans, the Czech Republic, Austria, Hungary, Poland, the Netherlands, even Italy and Spain: all of these countries are either relatively new nation-states which have for centuries been subject to various tyrannies from outside, or have been outside the European mainstream for most of the post-war period. Their perspective is completely different from ours. And the same is true, for different reasons, for France and Germany.rcs1000 said:I was in Latvia about 18 months ago, just a few weeks before they joined the Euro, and I asked my taxi driver:
"You're about to join the Euro, are you mad?" (or some such)
and he replied
"If your neighbour was Russia, you'd want to be as much a part of Europe as possible."
It was interesting how different their perspective was. And I think we all need to realise that our choices, as an island on the far West of Europe, are very different to those of a tiny country with an aggressive next door neighbour.
The Russians decide to 'secure' these oil fields and essentially occupy the country. All with the utter craven support of the EU.
What a captivating work of fiction. All utterly predicated on the 'collapse of NATO'. What a convenient plot device. 'the very near future' ? ha ha.
Er... So?
Are we expected to abandon generations of policy commitments on the basis of a crap piece of television fiction?
BTW - The Hunt for Red October was a bit of fiction not a documentary.0 -
SCon surge and Corbyn gets toppled.RobD said:0 -
We are cheering the fact that we will soon be the Opposition in North Britain.foxinsoxuk said:
Not much to cheer for tonight for the blues. Opposition doing well everywhere, though still falling a little short in Cambs.Tissue_Price said:Couple of Tory losses...
Britain Elects @britainelects
Green GAIN Oswestry South (Shropshire) from Conservative.
Britain Elects @britainelects
Independent GAIN Hexham West (Northumberland) from Conservative.0 -
We're making sure we don't peak too soon.foxinsoxuk said:
Not much to cheer for tonight for the blues. Opposition doing well everywhere, though still falling a little short in Cambs.Tissue_Price said:Couple of Tory losses...
Britain Elects @britainelects
Green GAIN Oswestry South (Shropshire) from Conservative.
Britain Elects @britainelects
Independent GAIN Hexham West (Northumberland) from Conservative.0 -
Has Farage blamed immigrants for his delay again ?Pulpstar said:Diane James and Nuttall not stuck on trains or planes this evening.......
0 -
I'm not talking about "control" but about the environment in which nation states exist, the external influences on them and the competing demands on their allegiance.Richard_Tyndall said:
One wonders how Norway and Iceland have managed to avoid becoming democratic basket cases without being under the benevolent control of the EU.Wanderer said:
That's putting it too strongly, but I think the existence of the EU and the acquis communautaire were a helpful influence.Richard_Tyndall said:
Are you claiming that the newly liberated eastern bloc countries were so poorly led they were incapable of becoming functioning democracies without the EU?
The question I would ask is, without the EU, would those countries be more or less likely still to be democracies in, say, 2050?
I don't see that Norway or Iceland are relevant. Their history is not that of the Eastern Bloc countries.
At present almost the entire European sub-continent is singing from the liberal-democratic hymn sheet. That's a great and unprecedented thing. It may have nothing whatsoever to do with the EU. It may be that the EU has hindered this development and that democracy would be more secure in every member state if the EU didn't exist. Or it may be that the EU's influence has been at least somewhat beneficial.
Tentatively I think that the EU has been and will continue to be a benevolent institution for at least the next decade or two.0 -
Between 40,000 and 70,000 Syrians are heading for the Turkish border due to fighting in Aleppo:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-354951570 -
I quite like Ruth Davidson. She will be an excellent LOTO in Scotland. She is pro-EU as well as pro-Union. Indeed it is a shame she cannot be PM of the UK, at least for present.Tissue_Price said:
We are cheering the fact that we will soon be the Opposition in North Britain.foxinsoxuk said:
Not much to cheer for tonight for the blues. Opposition doing well everywhere, though still falling a little short in Cambs.Tissue_Price said:Couple of Tory losses...
Britain Elects @britainelects
Green GAIN Oswestry South (Shropshire) from Conservative.
Britain Elects @britainelects
Independent GAIN Hexham West (Northumberland) from Conservative.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/11880823/Ruth-Davidson-backs-EU-with-or-without-reform.html0 -
The Barclays guy said that. The HSBC guy did not.Richard_Tyndall said:
Barclays and HSBC say City will thrive after BrexitRichard_Nabavi said:I think it's naive for the Leave side to think the economic risks of Brexit won't be a big factor - the decisive factor, IMO. Here are first few links to come up on a search (I'm not saying these are right, just that they are the prevailing view of mostly independent, or at least independent-sounding, sources):
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/feb/04/brexit--slash-sterling-20-warns-goldman-sachs
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/1a86ab36-afbe-11e5-b955-1a1d298b6250.html#axzz3zFLD0E9M
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jan/25/brexit-would-trigger-economic-financial-shock-for-uk
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2016-01-07/how-brexit-fears-are-beginning-to-impact-u-k-economy
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-01/here-s-what-happens-to-the-u-k-economy-in-a-brexit-scenario
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/12122506/Devastating-Brexit-will-consign-Europe-to-a-second-rate-world-power-warns-Deutsche-Bank.html
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jan/23/brexit-fears-fuel-market-turmoil-imf-chief-says
The Leave side need a pretty good answer to that lot (and one that's better than 'Europhile scaremongering')
http://www.cityam.com/231841/eu-referendum-barclays-hsbc-bosses-give-evidence-to-mps-on-britains-eu-membership-say-city-would-thrive-after-brexit0 -
This isn't Dave's night.Tissue_Price said:Couple of Tory losses...
Britain Elects @britainelects
Green GAIN Oswestry South (Shropshire) from Conservative.
Britain Elects @britainelects
Independent GAIN Hexham West (Northumberland) from Conservative.0 -
Proberly cheering this,Tissue_Price said:
We are cheering the fact that we will soon be the Opposition in North Britain.foxinsoxuk said:
Not much to cheer for tonight for the blues. Opposition doing well everywhere, though still falling a little short in Cambs.Tissue_Price said:Couple of Tory losses...
Britain Elects @britainelects
Green GAIN Oswestry South (Shropshire) from Conservative.
Britain Elects @britainelects
Independent GAIN Hexham West (Northumberland) from Conservative.
YouGov/Times:
CON 39 (=)
LAB 29 (-1)
LIB 6 (=)
UKIP 18 (+1)
GRN 3 (=)
SNP 4 (=)
Dates 3rd-4th Feb
0 -
Apparently the Oswestry loss is explained by the exiting senior Conservative having resigned over a financial conflict of interest. Mind you, Labour held onto their seat after their councillor resigned having been arrested on suspicion of drug dealing!AndyJS said:
This isn't Dave's night.Tissue_Price said:Couple of Tory losses...
Britain Elects @britainelects
Green GAIN Oswestry South (Shropshire) from Conservative.
Britain Elects @britainelects
Independent GAIN Hexham West (Northumberland) from Conservative.0 -
Somebody throw a dead catAndyJS said:
This isn't Dave's night.Tissue_Price said:Couple of Tory losses...
Britain Elects @britainelects
Green GAIN Oswestry South (Shropshire) from Conservative.
Britain Elects @britainelects
Independent GAIN Hexham West (Northumberland) from Conservative.0 -
Not sure. I don't claim to know Scottish politics but I thought that in a Thatcher-hating nation the SNP==Thatcherites stuff might get some purchase. I realise every SNP supporter here is going to say I'm a turnip (etc etc) and every SLAB supporter is going to ... not exist.Pulpstar said:
It's a conservative nation. This is why Dugdale's plan to put up the BR of tax will go down like cold sick.TheScreamingEagles said:Scottish net approval ratings.
Sturgeon plus 30
Davidson plus 4
Dugdale minus 180 -
You seen @iainmartin1 on Twitter? Agitating for Portillo to lead leave!isam said:
Somebody throw a dead catAndyJS said:
This isn't Dave's night.Tissue_Price said:Couple of Tory losses...
Britain Elects @britainelects
Green GAIN Oswestry South (Shropshire) from Conservative.
Britain Elects @britainelects
Independent GAIN Hexham West (Northumberland) from Conservative.0 -
Or another explaination,after Dave's crap deal,some might stayed at home.Tissue_Price said:
Apparently the Oswestry loss is explained by the exiting senior Conservative having resigned over a financial conflict of interest. Mind you, Labour held onto their seat after their councillor resigned having been arrested on suspicion of drug dealing!AndyJS said:
This isn't Dave's night.Tissue_Price said:Couple of Tory losses...
Britain Elects @britainelects
Green GAIN Oswestry South (Shropshire) from Conservative.
Britain Elects @britainelects
Independent GAIN Hexham West (Northumberland) from Conservative.0 -
Con + Kipper is 57%. Progressive majority.Tykejohnno said:
Proberly cheering this,Tissue_Price said:
We are cheering the fact that we will soon be the Opposition in North Britain.foxinsoxuk said:
Not much to cheer for tonight for the blues. Opposition doing well everywhere, though still falling a little short in Cambs.Tissue_Price said:Couple of Tory losses...
Britain Elects @britainelects
Green GAIN Oswestry South (Shropshire) from Conservative.
Britain Elects @britainelects
Independent GAIN Hexham West (Northumberland) from Conservative.
YouGov/Times:
CON 39 (=)
LAB 29 (-1)
LIB 6 (=)
UKIP 18 (+1)
GRN 3 (=)
SNP 4 (=)
Dates 3rd-4th Feb0 -
Tory landslide under AV.Wanderer said:
Con + Kipper is 57%. Progressive majority.Tykejohnno said:
Proberly cheering this,Tissue_Price said:
We are cheering the fact that we will soon be the Opposition in North Britain.foxinsoxuk said:
Not much to cheer for tonight for the blues. Opposition doing well everywhere, though still falling a little short in Cambs.Tissue_Price said:Couple of Tory losses...
Britain Elects @britainelects
Green GAIN Oswestry South (Shropshire) from Conservative.
Britain Elects @britainelects
Independent GAIN Hexham West (Northumberland) from Conservative.
YouGov/Times:
CON 39 (=)
LAB 29 (-1)
LIB 6 (=)
UKIP 18 (+1)
GRN 3 (=)
SNP 4 (=)
Dates 3rd-4th Feb
Big mistake for the Tories to oppose AV in 2011.
They should rerun the AV ref in 20170 -
Yes I just saw... An absolutely perfect choice; calm manner, stylish, European parentage, extremely popular media performer, not racist, not homophobic & knows his stuffTissue_Price said:
You seen @iainmartin1 on Twitter? Agitating for Portillo to lead leave!isam said:
Somebody throw a dead catAndyJS said:
This isn't Dave's night.Tissue_Price said:Couple of Tory losses...
Britain Elects @britainelects
Green GAIN Oswestry South (Shropshire) from Conservative.
Britain Elects @britainelects
Independent GAIN Hexham West (Northumberland) from Conservative.
It must be tempting for him to have one last go at political success
He was 33/1 wasn't he? I didn't back it0 -
An idea for a thread!TheScreamingEagles said:
Tory landslide under AV.Wanderer said:
Con + Kipper is 57%. Progressive majority.Tykejohnno said:
Proberly cheering this,Tissue_Price said:
We are cheering the fact that we will soon be the Opposition in North Britain.foxinsoxuk said:
Not much to cheer for tonight for the blues. Opposition doing well everywhere, though still falling a little short in Cambs.Tissue_Price said:Couple of Tory losses...
Britain Elects @britainelects
Green GAIN Oswestry South (Shropshire) from Conservative.
Britain Elects @britainelects
Independent GAIN Hexham West (Northumberland) from Conservative.
YouGov/Times:
CON 39 (=)
LAB 29 (-1)
LIB 6 (=)
UKIP 18 (+1)
GRN 3 (=)
SNP 4 (=)
Dates 3rd-4th Feb
Big mistake for the Tories to oppose AV in 2011.
They should rerun the AV ref in 20170 -
I disagree. People's fears currently revolve about migration, and arguments that do not address that will simply be ignored, belittled, or denied: witness the exchange below that a 20% drop in GBP is a good thing?! Predictions of poor economic outcomes will have no effect, even if they're true. They'll be believed after the fact but right now they're thinking with their gut and your point will have no tractionRichard_Nabavi said:
Sure, but they don't say there won't be economic damage:Richard_Tyndall said:Barclays and HSBC say City will thrive after Brexit
http://www.cityam.com/231841/eu-referendum-barclays-hsbc-bosses-give-evidence-to-mps-on-britains-eu-membership-say-city-would-thrive-after-brexit
When asked whether he thought London’s status as a financial hub would suffer in the event of Brexit, Chew was less certain than Astaire, saying the City’s outcome would “very much depend on the nature of the exit” and the institutional arrangements that were put in place between Britain and Brussels.
There are obviously going to be lots of different views, but a lot of authoritative-sounding people (probably the vast majority) are going to be saying it's bad for the economy and jobs. Voters won't know who to believe, so will play safe and vote Remain. I think, and I've always thought, that it is incredibly difficult for the Leave side to counter that.0 -
There is also a row in Oswestry over a proposed large development that is supported by the Conservative council.Tissue_Price said:
Apparently the Oswestry loss is explained by the exiting senior Conservative having resigned over a financial conflict of interest. Mind you, Labour held onto their seat after their councillor resigned having been arrested on suspicion of drug dealing!AndyJS said:
This isn't Dave's night.Tissue_Price said:Couple of Tory losses...
Britain Elects @britainelects
Green GAIN Oswestry South (Shropshire) from Conservative.
Britain Elects @britainelects
Independent GAIN Hexham West (Northumberland) from Conservative.
Edit: Another development that is to the one the former conservative resigned over after the financial scandal.0 -
Could we see UKIP closing in on Labour within a year?Tykejohnno said:
Proberly cheering this,Tissue_Price said:
We are cheering the fact that we will soon be the Opposition in North Britain.foxinsoxuk said:
Not much to cheer for tonight for the blues. Opposition doing well everywhere, though still falling a little short in Cambs.Tissue_Price said:Couple of Tory losses...
Britain Elects @britainelects
Green GAIN Oswestry South (Shropshire) from Conservative.
Britain Elects @britainelects
Independent GAIN Hexham West (Northumberland) from Conservative.
YouGov/Times:
CON 39 (=)
LAB 29 (-1)
LIB 6 (=)
UKIP 18 (+1)
GRN 3 (=)
SNP 4 (=)
Dates 3rd-4th Feb0 -
Yes if Corbyn and McDonnell stay in charge.MP_SE said:
Could we see UKIP closing in on Labour within a year?Tykejohnno said:
Proberly cheering this,Tissue_Price said:
We are cheering the fact that we will soon be the Opposition in North Britain.foxinsoxuk said:
Not much to cheer for tonight for the blues. Opposition doing well everywhere, though still falling a little short in Cambs.Tissue_Price said:Couple of Tory losses...
Britain Elects @britainelects
Green GAIN Oswestry South (Shropshire) from Conservative.
Britain Elects @britainelects
Independent GAIN Hexham West (Northumberland) from Conservative.
YouGov/Times:
CON 39 (=)
LAB 29 (-1)
LIB 6 (=)
UKIP 18 (+1)
GRN 3 (=)
SNP 4 (=)
Dates 3rd-4th Feb0 -
Things are going fine on the future immigration front.AndyJS said:Between 40,000 and 70,000 Syrians are heading for the Turkish border due to fighting in Aleppo:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-35495157
John Mann MP PMQ - 3rd February 2016
"Is that it? Is that the best the Prime Minister can do?"
"Nothing for British pensioners. Nothing for British workers."
"And as the OBR and Treasury have confirmed, his long term economic plan is reliant on over a million new migrants entering the UK for work by 2020."
"Has he got the bottle to confirm this inconvenient truth?"0 -
I wonder what he was expecting for British pensioners.Tykejohnno said:
Things are going fine on the future immigration front.AndyJS said:Between 40,000 and 70,000 Syrians are heading for the Turkish border due to fighting in Aleppo:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-35495157
John Mann MP PMQ - 3rd February 2016
"Is that it? Is that the best the Prime Minister can do?"
"Nothing for British pensioners. Nothing for British workers."
"And as the OBR and Treasury have confirmed, his long term economic plan is reliant on over a million new migrants entering the UK for work by 2020."
"Has he got the bottle to confirm this inconvenient truth?"0 -
Notable that Lab, LD and Greens are all down from the GE election. Con and UKIP both up.Tykejohnno said:
Proberly cheering this,Tissue_Price said:
We are cheering the fact that we will soon be the Opposition in North Britain.foxinsoxuk said:
Not much to cheer for tonight for the blues. Opposition doing well everywhere, though still falling a little short in Cambs.Tissue_Price said:Couple of Tory losses...
Britain Elects @britainelects
Green GAIN Oswestry South (Shropshire) from Conservative.
Britain Elects @britainelects
Independent GAIN Hexham West (Northumberland) from Conservative.
YouGov/Times:
CON 39 (=)
LAB 29 (-1)
LIB 6 (=)
UKIP 18 (+1)
GRN 3 (=)
SNP 4 (=)
Dates 3rd-4th Feb0 -
I can see Labour heading towards 26/7. The question is whether UKIP could get up that high.AndyJS said:
Yes if Corbyn and McDonnell stay in charge.MP_SE said:
Could we see UKIP closing in on Labour within a year?Tykejohnno said:
Proberly cheering this,Tissue_Price said:
We are cheering the fact that we will soon be the Opposition in North Britain.foxinsoxuk said:
Not much to cheer for tonight for the blues. Opposition doing well everywhere, though still falling a little short in Cambs.Tissue_Price said:Couple of Tory losses...
Britain Elects @britainelects
Green GAIN Oswestry South (Shropshire) from Conservative.
Britain Elects @britainelects
Independent GAIN Hexham West (Northumberland) from Conservative.
YouGov/Times:
CON 39 (=)
LAB 29 (-1)
LIB 6 (=)
UKIP 18 (+1)
GRN 3 (=)
SNP 4 (=)
Dates 3rd-4th Feb0 -
Can't believe no one has thought of doing one...Wanderer said:
An idea for a thread!TheScreamingEagles said:
Tory landslide under AV.Wanderer said:
Con + Kipper is 57%. Progressive majority.Tykejohnno said:
Proberly cheering this,Tissue_Price said:
We are cheering the fact that we will soon be the Opposition in North Britain.foxinsoxuk said:
Not much to cheer for tonight for the blues. Opposition doing well everywhere, though still falling a little short in Cambs.Tissue_Price said:Couple of Tory losses...
Britain Elects @britainelects
Green GAIN Oswestry South (Shropshire) from Conservative.
Britain Elects @britainelects
Independent GAIN Hexham West (Northumberland) from Conservative.
YouGov/Times:
CON 39 (=)
LAB 29 (-1)
LIB 6 (=)
UKIP 18 (+1)
GRN 3 (=)
SNP 4 (=)
Dates 3rd-4th Feb
Big mistake for the Tories to oppose AV in 2011.
They should rerun the AV ref in 2017 0 -
Late to the thread, but would like to add my sympathies to TSE, as amiable and friendly a guy in the flesh as he is online. Good luck!0
-
Gobowen, Gobowen, Gone!Plank said:
There is also a row in Oswestry over a proposed large development that is supported by the Conservative council.Tissue_Price said:
Apparently the Oswestry loss is explained by the exiting senior Conservative having resigned over a financial conflict of interest. Mind you, Labour held onto their seat after their councillor resigned having been arrested on suspicion of drug dealing!AndyJS said:
This isn't Dave's night.Tissue_Price said:Couple of Tory losses...
Britain Elects @britainelects
Green GAIN Oswestry South (Shropshire) from Conservative.
Britain Elects @britainelects
Independent GAIN Hexham West (Northumberland) from Conservative.
Edit: Another development that is to the one the former conservative resigned over after the financial scandal.0 -
The movements of people in Syria are truly biblical. I don't know how Turkey or Europe is going to cope with this situation, sadly.0
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CNN New Hampshire
GOP Trump 29, Rubio 18, Cruz 13, Kasich 12, Bush 10, Christie 4, Fiorina 4, Carson 2, Paul, Huckabee, Santorum
Dems Sanders 61, Clinton 30, O'Malley
http://edition.cnn.com/2016/02/04/politics/new-hampshire-republican-cnn-wmur-poll/index.html0 -
According to ScotlandVotes, those poll figures would give constituency+list seat totals of Con 6+19 and Lab 0+26!Tissue_Price said:Con ahead of Labour in a YouGov Scottish poll - 20 constituency, 20 list for Con and 19/20 for Labour.
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How does an equal list vote for both parties equate to Lab winning more seats (26 vs 25)?sarissa said:
According to ScotlandVotes, those poll figures would give constituency+list seat totals of Con 6+19 and Lab 0+26!Tissue_Price said:Con ahead of Labour in a YouGov Scottish poll - 20 constituency, 20 list for Con and 19/20 for Labour.
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Because it takes into account the number of constituency seats won in attempt to be proportional.Philip_Thompson said:
How does an equal list vote for both parties equate to Lab winning more seats (26 vs 25)?sarissa said:
According to ScotlandVotes, those poll figures would give constituency+list seat totals of Con 6+19 and Lab 0+26!Tissue_Price said:Con ahead of Labour in a YouGov Scottish poll - 20 constituency, 20 list for Con and 19/20 for Labour.
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All thanks to Labour's attempt to design a system to prevent the SNP from ever gaining control of the Scottish Parliament...RobD said:
Because it takes into account the number of constituency seats won in attempt to be proportional.Philip_Thompson said:
How does an equal list vote for both parties equate to Lab winning more seats (26 vs 25)?sarissa said:
According to ScotlandVotes, those poll figures would give constituency+list seat totals of Con 6+19 and Lab 0+26!Tissue_Price said:Con ahead of Labour in a YouGov Scottish poll - 20 constituency, 20 list for Con and 19/20 for Labour.
Look how well that went.0 -
I doubt it......I suspect there's a ceiling to UKIP support which is still well below the floor to Labour's........MP_SE said:
Could we see UKIP closing in on Labour within a year?Tykejohnno said:
Proberly cheering this,Tissue_Price said:
We are cheering the fact that we will soon be the Opposition in North Britain.foxinsoxuk said:
Not much to cheer for tonight for the blues. Opposition doing well everywhere, though still falling a little short in Cambs.Tissue_Price said:Couple of Tory losses...
Britain Elects @britainelects
Green GAIN Oswestry South (Shropshire) from Conservative.
Britain Elects @britainelects
Independent GAIN Hexham West (Northumberland) from Conservative.
YouGov/Times:
CON 39 (=)
LAB 29 (-1)
LIB 6 (=)
UKIP 18 (+1)
GRN 3 (=)
SNP 4 (=)
Dates 3rd-4th Feb0 -
Variation in D'Hondt allocation among the Scottish regions, based on UNS movements. It's still a constituency based system, not pure national PR, and subject to slight bias.Philip_Thompson said:
How does an equal list vote for both parties equate to Lab winning more seats (26 vs 25)?sarissa said:
According to ScotlandVotes, those poll figures would give constituency+list seat totals of Con 6+19 and Lab 0+26!Tissue_Price said:Con ahead of Labour in a YouGov Scottish poll - 20 constituency, 20 list for Con and 19/20 for Labour.
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How on earth did anything like that ever get to be part of the UK constitution? Oh yes, Labour's botched devolution settlement. Utterly perverse!RodCrosby said:
Variation in D'Hondt allocation among the Scottish regions, based on UNS movements. It's still a constituency based system, not pure national PR, and subject to slight bias.Philip_Thompson said:
How does an equal list vote for both parties equate to Lab winning more seats (26 vs 25)?sarissa said:
According to ScotlandVotes, those poll figures would give constituency+list seat totals of Con 6+19 and Lab 0+26!Tissue_Price said:Con ahead of Labour in a YouGov Scottish poll - 20 constituency, 20 list for Con and 19/20 for Labour.
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It's considerably less perverse than pure FPTP which, as you may have noticed, also involves constituencies and all their attendant pathologies...oxfordsimon said:
How on earth did anything like that ever get to be part of the UK constitution? Oh yes, Labour's botched devolution settlement. Utterly perverse!RodCrosby said:
Variation in D'Hondt allocation among the Scottish regions, based on UNS movements. It's still a constituency based system, not pure national PR, and subject to slight bias.Philip_Thompson said:
How does an equal list vote for both parties equate to Lab winning more seats (26 vs 25)?sarissa said:
According to ScotlandVotes, those poll figures would give constituency+list seat totals of Con 6+19 and Lab 0+26!Tissue_Price said:Con ahead of Labour in a YouGov Scottish poll - 20 constituency, 20 list for Con and 19/20 for Labour.
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One of the shortest-serving MPs since 1900.MP_SE said:*** By-Election Alert ***
RIP Harry Harpham, MP for Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_Kingdom_MPs_with_the_shortest_service
Condolences to all who knew him.0 -
Singer-songwriter Maurice White, who founded the band Earth, Wind & Fire, has died0
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*** FREE MONEY ALERT *** FREE MONEY ALERT *** FREE MONEY ALERT
I find it staggering that Hills continue to offer decimal odds of 3.5 (aka 5/2) against a LEAVE vote in the referendum in the light of YouGov's latest poll in this morning's Times, which shows LEAVE on 45% compared with REMAIN on 36%.
Consequently there's currently an arbitrage position with Betfair's lay price of 3.05 (3.11 net of their 5% commission) ...... this won't last long that's for sure!
DYOR.0 -
BTW .... those nice people at Wm. Hill continue to offer Cameron ceasing to be Tory Party Leader during the course of 2016 at odds of 12/1. What price this bet should he lose the referendum in June? Especially bearing in mind that he'd have you believe that he and he alone has been responsible for the entire so-called renegotiation process involving him sweet talking any number of European leaders.
DYOR.0 -
It does now seem likely that the referendum will be in June. I think 12-1 on Cameron to go in 2016 is a much better bet than 5-2 on Britain voting to leave the EU. I cannot see how Cameron can stay on as PM if we vote to leave the EU - but then he'll probably find someway to cling to power.peter_from_putney said:BTW .... those nice people at Wm. Hill continue to offer Cameron ceasing to be Tory Party Leader during the course of 2016 at odds of 12/1. What price this bet should he lose the referendum in June? Especially bearing in mind that he'd have you believe that he and he alone has been responsible for the entire so-called renegotiation process involving him sweet talking any number of European leaders.
DYOR.0 -
That bit's easy. You just hire Goldman Sachsnigel4england said:
An EU application also requires financial stability, as the Greeks had to prove when they joined.foxinsoxuk said:
An EU application requires all sorts of democratic, human rights, and economic progress. It is a major carrot for these countries.rcs1000 said:
I'm going to put my @Socrates hat on here: those ex Communist countries that joined the EU and looked West have done a lot better than those who stuck with Russia. Doesn't mean it couldn't have happened with some kind of EFTA/EEA, but it's hard to claim that EU membership has been a disaster for the Baltics (for example).Richard_Tyndall said:
All but three of those were former Iron Curtain countries and the EU had sweet FA to do with freeing them from that yoke.foxinsoxuk said:@Perdix
The point about social protection is that the legislation is from the EU, not from Westminster. We could have passed those laws but did not. Leave puts them under threat.
Well within my lifetime Spain, Portugal, Greece, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, Croatia, Slovenia, the Czech republic, Slovakia, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia were all dictatorships and many very poorly governed. EU membership was a major driver for each of these to develop democratic and economically modern economies. We should be proud of our part in bringing these countries out of their darkness and backwardness. There is clearly much remaining to be done, and Britons should not shirk from completing the job. Britain is best served by a democratic and economically open Europe, which is one reason that staying in the EU is in our own interests.
Are you claiming that the newly liberated eastern bloc countries were so poorly led they were incapable of becoming functioning democracies without the EU?
Imperfect they may be, but these are much better places for the existence of the EU.
BTW @rcs1000 how can GS even have the moxy to *ask* Malyasia for $589m in fees on a $6.5bn fund raising.
Market rate would be $10-12m. Even with some fancy derivatives they do basically scalp their clients.
How can you justify that kind of culture?0 -
It is no longer just the ME but also Europe that is paying a heavy price for the regime change policies of our leaders. Cameron has a lot to answer for with both Libya and Syria, but he hasn't be held to account so far and I don't expect the media to start doing so anytime soon. Certainly didn't learn the lesson of Iraq.AndyJS said:The movements of people in Syria are truly biblical. I don't know how Turkey or Europe is going to cope with this situation, sadly.
http://www.ibtimes.com/czech-president-blames-western-invasion-middle-east-illegal-immigration-europe-2035820
Still at least stability is now being restored to Syria, providing Turkey does nothing crazy like overtly invade.
https://twitter.com/edwardedark/status/6949369928078090240 -
@TheScreamingEagles
TSE - just saw your news. That sounds shit - hope everything works out for you.
If it's helpful, I've got a really good retinal specialist in Oxford - he is the guys who looks after RAF pilots post ejector seat usage & fast descent SAS/SBS troops.
Very much at the cutting edge of science as well - one of the top guys in gene therapy (particularly in diabetic retinopathy from memory)
Happy to make an introduction if you would like
http://www.ndcn.ox.ac.uk/team/robert-maclaren0 -
Yes well said Charles.Charles said:@TheScreamingEagles
TSE - just saw your news. That sounds shit - hope everything works out for you.
If it's helpful, I've got a really good retinal specialist in Oxford - he is the guys who looks after RAF pilots post ejector seat usage & fast descent SAS/SBS troops.
Very much at the cutting edge of science as well - one of the top guys in gene therapy (particularly in diabetic retinopathy from memory)
Happy to make an introduction if you would like
http://www.ndcn.ox.ac.uk/team/robert-maclaren
Hope all goes well for Mr TSE0 -
Be sure to PM him that too, so he doesn't miss it!Charles said:@TheScreamingEagles
TSE - just saw your news. That sounds shit - hope everything works out for you.
If it's helpful, I've got a really good retinal specialist in Oxford - he is the guys who looks after RAF pilots post ejector seat usage & fast descent SAS/SBS troops.
Very much at the cutting edge of science as well - one of the top guys in gene therapy (particularly in diabetic retinopathy from memory)
Happy to make an introduction if you would like
http://www.ndcn.ox.ac.uk/team/robert-maclaren0 -
Same hear - just caught up with the news.Alanbrooke said:
Yes well said Charles.Charles said:@TheScreamingEagles
TSE - just saw your news. That sounds shit - hope everything works out for you.
If it's helpful, I've got a really good retinal specialist in Oxford - he is the guys who looks after RAF pilots post ejector seat usage & fast descent SAS/SBS troops.
Very much at the cutting edge of science as well - one of the top guys in gene therapy (particularly in diabetic retinopathy from memory)
Happy to make an introduction if you would like
http://www.ndcn.ox.ac.uk/team/robert-maclaren
Hope all goes well for Mr TSE
I had a scare a few years back with something called 'Posterior Vitreous Detachment' (no, my glass bottom didn't fall off) - and apart from irritating floaters all fine now - but it must be a jolly worrying time....0 -
Just suppose the polls over the coming weeks follow this morning's lead by YouGov in showing LEAVE as having a clear lead, what does Cameron do next?
Press on regardless, with seemingly every likelihood of his being defeated in June and a very personal defeat that indeed would be? Or does he decide that discretion is the better part of valour and attempt to negotiate better terms no matter how dim his prospects of success might seem? Or does he simply find some pretext, eg "more pressing business" for delaying the referendum, perhaps until next year?
Tricky, possibly very tricky for him
Edit: Btw I don't think the media, nor the public will take too kindly to Stuart Rose's nanny-like suggestion that polls should be prohibited in the final two week period prior to the referendum date.0 -
Best of luck TSE, hope the worst case scenario is at very long odds indeed.0
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Not really for me to say but I hope TSE seriously considers taking up Charles' offer.Alanbrooke said:
Yes well said Charles.Charles said:@TheScreamingEagles
TSE - just saw your news. That sounds shit - hope everything works out for you.
If it's helpful, I've got a really good retinal specialist in Oxford - he is the guys who looks after RAF pilots post ejector seat usage & fast descent SAS/SBS troops.
Very much at the cutting edge of science as well - one of the top guys in gene therapy (particularly in diabetic retinopathy from memory)
Happy to make an introduction if you would like
http://www.ndcn.ox.ac.uk/team/robert-maclaren
Hope all goes well for Mr TSE0
