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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tonight’s local by-election line-up: 3 CON defences and a L
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tonight’s local by-election line-up: 3 CON defences and a LAB one
Bottisham (Con defence) on East Cambridgeshire
Result of council at last election (2015): Conservatives 36, Liberal Democrats 2, Independent 1 (Conservative majority of 33)
Result of ward at last election (2015) : Emboldened denotes elected
Conservatives 1,100, 1,002 (52%)
Liberal Democrats 678, 634 (32%)
Labour 347, 339 (16%)
Candidates duly nominated:
0
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http://www.economist.com/news/leaders/21690029-david-camerons-weedy-renegotiation-makes-muscular-pro-european-argument-accidental?fsrc=scn/tw/te/pe/ed/TheaccidentalEurophile
http://www.itv.com/news/meridian/update/2016-02-04/the-last-word-february-2016/
Justin124
"I am not a Labour Party member by the way."
Never said you were "a member" . Your man is still a total muppet though.
UKIP's 13% vote share was mid-way between the telephone pollsters giving 10% or so, and online giving 16% or so.
Pugh, Pugh, Barney McGrew, Cuthbert, Dibble, Grub.
A group strongly correlated with one another.
That's why I suggested that experiment by polling PB'ers.
Here is it:
https://www.nojam.com/post/550
Now if Phone polls are correct then that poll should show Remain leading, if Online polls are correct it should show Leave leading.
Since 80% of PB'ers are in that category of Tory voters and over 50.
I think I've said here before that both the online and phone polls are wrong, and the truth is somewhere in between, which is why I expect a 57-58% Remain result atm.
Hannan will lead and make the case (well) if no one else will, believe you me.
I know him.
@BBCNewsnight: ... the former First Sea Lord and Security Minister Lord West; SNP Defence Spokesman Brendan O'Hara; the Green Party's Caroline Lucas ...
@BBCNewsnight: ... Labour's John Woodcock; Major General Patrick Cordingley; Former Polish Foreign Minister Secretary Radek Sikorski ... #Trident
@BBCNewsnight: ... former Clinton aide Nancy Soderberg and Security expert Professor Malcolm Chalmers #Trident
Measham is an interesting one. NWLeics was a marginal parliamentary seat taken by Labour in the 97 landslide, going back to the Tories in 2010. This is the sort of seat that Labour need to win if they ever want a majority government again.
The council has had a significant BNP vote in the not too distant past, including a County Councillor in Coalville. There are a lot of objections to HS2 in the area as the track runs through without stopping anywhere nearby. I think the UKIP vote here would mostly come from Labour.
Well, it's a good thing I've been dithering about the odds and haven't bet on Leave yet.
He's more belligerent than George W.
On that note, is there anyone outside of the Tory leadership and the Remain campaign what thinks this is a substantial deal?? Even the most ardent Europhiles admit its only small stuff.
All subject to change of course, but the Leavers do have that wide eyed look of Tea Partiests
Since they already had 5 from the UK in favour of Trident why did they feel the need to invite foreigners in support of Trident, and what does an ex-polish foreign minister have to offer that the other 6 cannot?
But one already trailed on here by the usual suspects of course.
First we were told to expect various rabbits from the PM's hat, now we are told the whole process wasn't necessary.
Although some of the usual suspects are still claiming you can identify gains for the UK in deal, if you use an electron microscope, or believe in fairies or similar,,,
Now PB'ers are both in their vast majority Tory voters and old.
That's why I suggested that experiment, too see if the Phone polls or the Online polls are correct.
He has the capacity to make the case very well indeed - if anyone undecided (which is the key demographic) is listening to him.
But he'd be far too easily branded an extremist, a flag-carrier for the Tea Party Tendency, a danger to dearly beloved British institutions and a heretic from our country's unofficial Bevanite religion...
The Tory Party is the true Pro EU party.
Heath took us in, Thatcher signed the Single European Act, and Dave might be the one that keeps us in for a generation.
https://youtu.be/pQ_cbhkbMx8
Well, hawking cr*p used to be his job...
Funny, when I was saying for the last couple of years that Cameron was a committed Europhile all the Cameroons on here were outraged. The same people who said they wouldn't decide until they saw what he brought back and now that he has brought back nothing are saying they will vote to stay in anyway.
And they wonder why we call them hypocrites.
If we vote to remain and the EU continues to lurch from crisis to crisis and fails to live up to expectations Cameron will go down as the most hated Tory leader in modern history.
The result of the experiment has Online polls the winner.
By 74-26 Leave wins, a margin of almost 3-1, which is a little wider than the 2-1 margin Online polls have for the category of Tory voters and old people.
https://www.nojam.com/post/550
So the reality is that Tory voters are overwhelmingly in favour of Leave and the EU Ref is too close too call.
Heath took us in, Thatcher signed the Single European Act, and Dave might be the one that keeps us in for a generation.
Labour signed Lisbon. Big shame only way you can vote to oppose EU is by picking a hard right or hard left group.
Heath took us in, Thatcher signed the Single European Act, and Dave might be the one that keeps us in for a generation.
And it was Brown who stopped us going into the Euro.
Hated by whom? I doubt people will be singing "Ding dong the Dave is dead" when he dies.
TSE is teasing you
Labour are the only party out of the big two to have a manifesto pledge to take us out of the EU
Utter and absolute bollocks by you there.
@SamCoatesTimes: LEAK: Kate Hoey "no longer prepared to be co-chair of Labour Leave any longer but she has been persuaded not to announce this" - big blow
Someone is forgetting about a certain dairy-loving PM
I should have added hated by Tories and not the wider public. His legacy will be trashed.
And they wonder why we call them hypocrites.
The emperors new clothes
Spread betting on foot and mouth deaths probably mine
That's not going to happen but if in years to come the EU self destructs, as is likely, a new settlement will be needed by everyone
In a sign of the bitter infighting in the Vote Leave group, one of its main supporters has accused campaign director Dominic Cummings of undermining the organisation by generating “ill feeling” among workers.
John Mills, the multi-millionaire Labour donor who is the group’s deputy chairman, said that the feuding has prompted the MP Kate Hoey to stand down as co-chair of the Labour Leave group. Hoey, who is now supporting the separate Grassroots Out (GO), has agreed not to say anything publicly about the split.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/feb/04/vote-leave-deputy-chairman-condemns-damaging-bickering-mills-cummings-referendum?CMP=share_btn_tw
It may not be those words exactly but that is certainly what the sentiment will be for many people who were previously Tory voters.
Trump 29 -1
Rubio 18 +7
Cruz 13 +1
Kasich 12 +3
Bush 10 +4
Christie 4 -4
At this rate Rubio is going to win N.H. even if Trump doesn't go down.
MP SE = MP Slightly Eccentric?
Furious local Conservatives are threatening to turn their backs on Tory candidates in May's local elections after the Prime Minister told MPs to ignore the views of eurosceptic associations ahead of the EU referendum
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/12141419/David-Camerons-Brexit-comments-infuriate-Tory-activists-who-now-threaten-to-abandon-support-for-candidates.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter
Remain: 36% (-2)
Leave: 45% (+3)
(via YouGov / 03 - 04 Feb)
I'll never measure up to bjo.
Heath took us in, Thatcher signed the Single European Act, and Dave might be the one that keeps us in for a generation.
Stupid post.
Social protections of workers
Spreading of democracy and good governance to the other countries of Europe
A genuine feeling of solidarity and kinship with other countries with a common heritage
The ability to live and work in 28 countries without himdrance.
He's just replied to a tweet about the Daily Mail front page
@nsoamesmp: @stephentall well certainly not the Daily Mail out of date and just plain wrong
I can't believe the level of childish infighting and petulance on the crucial vote for the whole nation's future; one they've been waiting for decades.
Actually I think TSE is at least half right. Cameron's current con is certainly on a par with Heath's sell-out and Major's betrayal over Maastricht. Most of the worst surrenders over Europe have occurred under 'Conservative' governments.
I had thought the party had learned its lesson, but it seems the leadership and I'm afraid most of the MPs just can't be trusted.
Factual though.
I'm in a mood tonight, so you're all going to feel my acidic tongue tonight.
Came home to a letter saying I'm at real risk of losing my sight.
Peak LEAVE
I'm in a mood tonight, so you're all going to feel my acidic tongue tonight.
Came home to a letter saying I'm at real risk of losing my sight.
Crikey. That's terrible news. Puts all the politics and betting into perspective.