I think even an even(ish) split is bad for Remain at this point. The last couple of days have been Remain's moment, it's unveiling of the goods. If it's not ahead now it's, hmm, tricky.
Remain will not be running on Cam's pieces of paper but on fear of losing big employers from the South East and some urban centres elsewhere
Oh, Remain has some cards in its hand for sure. Still, it's been a bad two days for it. (I personally support Remain fwiw so I'm not talking up my own fancy, nor book, as I haven't bet yet.)
The trend is to belittle the government by the press -its self interest from them to see weak government - and to diminish Cameron from his opponents - simple bitterness. The issue of Europe is just the McGuffin.
There is a referendum, a vote. Vote for gawds sake. Cut the crap, just vote. It won't make much difference - you are a fool if you think so. Being in the EEA will be pretty much the same - except we will have to start negotiating all over again.
it's only fair. The Press have dumped buckets of shit over the Labour Party.
The point about social protection is that the legislation is from the EU, not from Westminster. We could have passed those laws but did not. Leave puts them under threat.
Well within my lifetime Spain, Portugal, Greece, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, Croatia, Slovenia, the Czech republic, Slovakia, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia were all dictatorships and many very poorly governed. EU membership was a major driver for each of these to develop democratic and economically modern economies. We should be proud of our part in bringing these countries out of their darkness and backwardness. There is clearly much remaining to be done, and Britons should not shirk from completing the job. Britain is best served by a democratic and economically open Europe, which is one reason that staying in the EU is in our own interests.
All but three of those were former Iron Curtain countries and the EU had sweet FA to do with freeing them from that yoke.
Are you claiming that the newly liberated eastern bloc countries were so poorly led they were incapable of becoming functioning democracies without the EU?
I'm going to put my @Socrates hat on here: those ex Communist countries that joined the EU and looked West have done a lot better than those who stuck with Russia. Doesn't mean it couldn't have happened with some kind of EFTA/EEA, but it's hard to claim that EU membership has been a disaster for the Baltics (for example).
An EU application requires all sorts of democratic, human rights, and economic progress. It is a major carrot for these countries.
Imperfect they may be, but these are much better places for the existence of the EU.
An EU application also requires financial stability, as the Greeks had to prove when they joined.
Greece joined the EU in 1981 as I recall, well before its recent problems.
If you spend far more money than you raise in taxes over a prolonged period then the economy goes tits up, whether in or out of the EU or Euro. Its not rocket science!
They joined the Eurozone in 2001, but then you knew that's what I meant.
In all my 60 years I don't think I have ever met a more duplicitous group of people as Europhiles.
The point about social protection is that the legislation is from the EU, not from Westminster. We could have passed those laws but did not. Leave puts them under threat.
Well within my lifetime Spain, Portugal, Greece, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, Croatia, Slovenia, the Czech republic, Slovakia, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia were all dictatorships and many very poorly governed. EU membership was a major driver for each of these to develop democratic and economically modern economies. We should be proud of our part in bringing these countries out of their darkness and backwardness. There is clearly much remaining to be done, and Britons should not shirk from completing the job. Britain is best served by a democratic and economically open Europe, which is one reason that staying in the EU is in our own interests.
All but three of those were former Iron Curtain countries and the EU had sweet FA to do with freeing them from that yoke.
Are you claiming that the newly liberated eastern bloc countries were so poorly led they were incapable of becoming functioning democracies without the EU?
I'm going to put my @Socrates hat on here: those ex Communist countries that joined the EU and looked West have done a lot better than those who stuck with Russia. Doesn't mean it couldn't have happened with some kind of EFTA/EEA, but it's hard to claim that EU membership has been a disaster for the Baltics (for example).
An EU application requires all sorts of democratic, human rights, and economic progress. It is a major carrot for these countries.
Imperfect they may be, but these are much better places for the existence of the EU.
An EU application also requires financial stability, as the Greeks had to prove when they joined.
Greece joined the EU in 1981 as I recall, well before its recent problems.
If you spend far more money than you raise in taxes over a prolonged period then the economy goes tits up, whether in or out of the EU or Euro. Its not rocket science!
Iirc the Greeks pretty heavily cooked the books in order to qualify for the Euro.
They'd applaud him if he said he was taking the UK into the Euro.
Articles calling Dave "the accidental europhile", and saying this vindicates what pro-Europeans have been saying for years, really really aren't going to help him with the internal party politics.
You won't like this article much more either calling Cameron the most pro-European Tory leader since Heath:
With a resolute flourish the Prime Minister declared that under his new terms he "sure would" have been keen to join the EU if the UK was not currently a member. As if to reiterate the point Cameron promised to make the case with "passion" in the coming months, again with the ritualistic qualification that he still has to negotiate his way through next month’s EU summit.
There is no inevitability about such a level of prime ministerial commitment. In 1975 the then Prime Minister, Harold Wilson, kept the lowest of low profiles during the In/Out referendum he had called. Wilson was virtually nowhere. Cameron will be ubiquitous.
What was so unusual was to hear a Conservative leader make a ringing endorsement for UK’s membership of the EU, or as Cameron will continue to put it, "a reformed EU". In a very different context he will be the first Conservative leader to make this case with "passion" since Edward Heath.
You are presumably aware that the Czechs for example had a well-functioning democracy and highly advanced economy before these were snuffed out by a combination of Chamberlain, Hitler and Stalin?
The point about social protection is that the legislation is from the EU, not from Westminster. We could have passed those laws but did not. Leave puts them under threat.
Well within my lifetime Spain, Portugal, Greece, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, Croatia, Slovenia, the Czech republic, Slovakia, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia were all dictatorships and many very poorly governed. EU membership was a major driver for each of these to develop democratic and economically modern economies. We should be proud of our part in bringing these countries out of their darkness and backwardness. There is clearly much remaining to be done, and Britons should not shirk from completing the job. Britain is best served by a democratic and economically open Europe, which is one reason that staying in the EU is in our own interests.
All but three of those were former Iron Curtain countries and the EU had sweet FA to do with freeing them from that yoke.
Are you claiming that the newly liberated eastern bloc countries were so poorly led they were incapable of becoming functioning democracies without the EU?
I'm going to put my @Socrates hat on here: those ex Communist countries that joined the EU and looked West have done a lot better than those who stuck with Russia. Doesn't mean it couldn't have happened with some kind of EFTA/EEA, but it's hard to claim that EU membership has been a disaster for the Baltics (for example).
An EU application requires all sorts of democratic, human rights, and economic progress. It is a major carrot for these countries.
Imperfect they may be, but these are much better places for the existence of the EU.
The EU was very flexible when it came to some of the newer members, i.e. turning a blind eye to high levels of corruption.
Like I said, the job is not yet done, so we need to Remain.
I was in Latvia about 18 months ago, just a few weeks before they joined the Euro, and I asked my taxi driver:
"You're about to join the Euro, are you mad?" (or some such) and he replied "If your neighbour was Russia, you'd want to be as much a part of Europe as possible."
It was interesting how different their perspective was. And I think we all need to realise that our choices, as an island on the far West of Europe, are very different to those of a tiny country with an aggressive next door neighbour.
Not just the small countries on the eastern fringe. The Balkans, the Czech Republic, Austria, Hungary, Poland, the Netherlands, even Italy and Spain: all of these countries are either relatively new nation-states which have for centuries been subject to various tyrannies from outside, or have been outside the European mainstream for most of the post-war period. Their perspective is completely different from ours. And the same is true, for different reasons, for France and Germany.
Just watching the final episode of Occupied. A Norwegian drama set in the very near future, in which Nato has collapsed and the USA is no longer interested in getting involved in conflicts outside its shores. A new prime minister for Norway announces that he is closing the gas and oil fields, but in return will share the country's knowledge on thorium energy.
The Russians decide to 'secure' these oil fields and essentially occupy the country. All with the utter craven support of the EU.
I think even an even(ish) split is bad for Remain at this point. The last couple of days have been Remain's moment, it's unveiling of the goods. If it's not ahead now it's, hmm, tricky.
Remain will not be running on Cam's pieces of paper but on fear of losing big employers from the South East and some urban centres elsewhere
Oh, Remain has some cards in its hand for sure. Still, it's been a bad two days for it. (I personally support Remain fwiw so I'm not talking up my own fancy, nor book, as I haven't bet yet.)
The trend is to belittle the government by the press -its self interest from them top see weak government - and to diminish Cameron from his opponents - simple bitterness. The issue of Europe is just the McGuffin.
There is a referendum, a vote. Vote for gawds sake. Cut the crap, just vote. It won't make much difference - you are a fool if you think so. Being in the EEA will be pretty much the same - except we will have to start negotiating all over again.
LOL. The stuck Cameroon record playing yet again.
And you are not stuck in a groove? Grow up you sad article.
You have a vote -- A VOTE! -- this is not a government whipping a vote through parliament.
It is a referendum and you can vote. We all can and we can all think about it and take the consequences. No one to blame but you YOU for your vote and its outcome. But one way or another I suspect weasels like you will always find a way to blame someone else.
I think even an even(ish) split is bad for Remain at this point. The last couple of days have been Remain's moment, it's unveiling of the goods. If it's not ahead now it's, hmm, tricky.
Remain will not be running on Cam's pieces of paper but on fear of losing big employers from the South East and some urban centres elsewhere
Oh, Remain has some cards in its hand for sure. Still, it's been a bad two days for it. (I personally support Remain fwiw so I'm not talking up my own fancy, nor book, as I haven't bet yet.)
The trend is to belittle the government by the press -its self interest from them top see weak government - and to diminish Cameron from his opponents - simple bitterness. The issue of Europe is just the McGuffin.
There is a referendum, a vote. Vote for gawds sake. Cut the crap, just vote. It won't make much difference - you are a fool if you think so. Being in the EEA will be pretty much the same - except we will have to start negotiating all over again.
LOL. The stuck Cameroon record playing yet again.
And you are not stuck in a groove? Grow up you sad article.
You have a vote -- A VOTE! -- this is not a government whipping a vote through parliament.
It is a referendum and you can vote. We all can and we can all think about it and take the consequences. No one to blame but you YOU for your vote and its outcome. But one way or another I suspect weasels like you will always find a way to blame someone else.
Lying ignorant Eurofanatics like you are of course a prime and justified target for blame.
I think it's naive for the Leave side to think the economic risks of Brexit won't be a big factor - the decisive factor, IMO. Here are first few links to come up on a search (I'm not saying these are right, just that they are the prevailing view of mostly independent, or at least independent-sounding, sources):
I was in Latvia about 18 months ago, just a few weeks before they joined the Euro, and I asked my taxi driver:
"You're about to join the Euro, are you mad?" (or some such) and he replied "If your neighbour was Russia, you'd want to be as much a part of Europe as possible."
It was interesting how different their perspective was. And I think we all need to realise that our choices, as an island on the far West of Europe, are very different to those of a tiny country with an aggressive next door neighbour.
I can beat that. I've met one of the ex-Presidents of Latvia (obviously briefly!). She found the UK's Euroscepticism alternately baffling and worrying, albeit phrased most diplomatically.
The point about social protection is that the legislation is from the EU, not from Westminster. We could have passed those laws but did not. Leave puts them under threat.
Well within my lifetime Spain, Portugal, Greece, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, Croatia, Slovenia, the Czech republic, Slovakia, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia were all dictatorships and many very poorly governed. EU membership was a major driver for each of these to develop democratic and economically modern economies. We should be proud of our part in bringing these countries out of their darkness and backwardness. There is clearly much remaining to be done, and Britons should not shirk from completing the job. Britain is best served by a democratic and economically open Europe, which is one reason that staying in the EU is in our own interests.
All but three of those were former Iron Curtain countries and the EU had sweet FA to do with freeing them from that yoke.
Are you claiming that the newly liberated eastern bloc countries were so poorly led they were incapable of becoming functioning democracies without the EU?
I'm going to put my @Socrates hat on here: those ex Communist countries that joined the EU and looked West have done a lot better than those who stuck with Russia. Doesn't mean it couldn't have happened with some kind of EFTA/EEA, but it's hard to claim that EU membership has been a disaster for the Baltics (for example).
An EU application requires all sorts of democratic, human rights, and economic progress. It is a major carrot for these countries.
Imperfect they may be, but these are much better places for the existence of the EU.
An EU application also requires financial stability, as the Greeks had to prove when they joined.
Greece joined the EU in 1981 as I recall, well before its recent problems.
If you spend far more money than you raise in taxes over a prolonged period then the economy goes tits up, whether in or out of the EU or Euro. Its not rocket science!
Iirc the Greeks pretty heavily cooked the books in order to qualify for the Euro.
Thats nothing to do with joining the EC or EU. It was 20 years or so later that they joined the Euro. The Euro was badly implemented. The Eurozone have to live with what they started - they were foolish. A struggling Eurozone economy is equally bad news for our industry
I think it's naive for the Leave side to think the economic risks of Brexit won't be a big factor - the decisive factor, IMO. Here are first few links to come up on a search (I'm not saying these are right, just that they are the prevailing view of mostly independent, or at least independent-sounding, sources):
The point about social protection is that the legislation is from the EU, not from Westminster. We could have passed those laws but did not. Leave puts them under threat.
Well within my lifetime Spain, Portugal, Greece, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, Croatia, Slovenia, the Czech republic, Slovakia, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia were all dictatorships and many very poorly governed. EU membership was a major driver for each of these to develop democratic and economically modern economies. We should be proud of our part in bringing these countries out of their darkness and backwardness. There is clearly much remaining to be done, and Britons should not shirk from completing the job. Britain is best served by a democratic and economically open Europe, which is one reason that staying in the EU is in our own interests.
All but three of those were former Iron Curtain countries and the EU had sweet FA to do with freeing them from that yoke.
Are you claiming that the newly liberated eastern bloc countries were so poorly led they were incapable of becoming functioning democracies without the EU?
I'm going to put my @Socrates hat on here: those ex Communist countries that joined the EU and looked West have done a lot better than those who stuck with Russia. Doesn't mean it couldn't have happened with some kind of EFTA/EEA, but it's hard to claim that EU membership has been a disaster for the Baltics (for example).
An EU application requires all sorts of democratic, human rights, and economic progress. It is a major carrot for these countries.
Imperfect they may be, but these are much better places for the existence of the EU.
An EU application also requires financial stability, as the Greeks had to prove when they joined.
Greece joined the EU in 1981 as I recall, well before its recent problems.
If you spend far more money than you raise in taxes over a prolonged period then the economy goes tits up, whether in or out of the EU or Euro. Its not rocket science!
Iirc the Greeks pretty heavily cooked the books in order to qualify for the Euro.
Indeed. With the connivance of both the EU and Goldman Sachs who are now making all sorts of dire claims for Brexit. It's a shame someone as opinionated as Foxinsox seemingly knows so little about the subject.
The point about social protection is that the legislation is from the EU, not from Westminster. We could have passed those laws but did not. Leave puts them under
All but three of those were former Iron Curtain countries and the EU had sweet FA to do with freeing them from that yoke.
Are you claiming that the newly liberated eastern bloc countries were so poorly led they were incapable of becoming functioning democracies without the EU?
I'm going to put my @Socrates hat on here: those ex Communist countries that joined the EU and looked West have done a lot better than those who stuck with Russia. Doesn't mean it couldn't have happened with some kind of EFTA/EEA, but it's hard to claim that EU membership has been a disaster for the Baltics (for example).
An EU application requires all sorts of democratic, human rights, and economic progress. It is a major carrot for these countries.
Imperfect they may be, but these are much better places for the existence of the EU.
An EU application also requires financial stability, as the Greeks had to prove when they joined.
Greece joined the EU in 1981 as I recall, well before its recent problems.
If you spend far more money than you raise in taxes over a prolonged period then the economy goes tits up, whether in or out of the EU or Euro. Its not rocket science!
They joined the Eurozone in 2001, but then you knew that's what I meant.
In all my 60 years I don't think I have ever met a more duplicitous group of people as Europhiles.
I just pointed out that Greece joined the EU in 1981 and had to demonstrate commitment to democracy and a free economy to do so, and for all Greece's faults these are now heavily ingrained there. Indeed the fact that democracy has survived the recent crisis shows how strong it is.
Greece joined the Euro in 2001. They did fiddle some figures to enter, but the real problem is that they took advantage of the resulting low interest rates to borrow far more than they could afford to repay. The EU cannot protect countries against themselves, at least as arranged at present.
The point about social protection is that the legislation is from the EU, not from Westminster. We could have passed those laws but did not. Leave puts them under threat.
Well within my lifetime Spain, Portugal, Greece, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, Croatia, Slovenia, the Czech republic, Slovakia, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia were all dictatorships and many very poorly governed. EU membership was a major driver for each of these to develop democratic and economically modern economies. We should be proud of our part in bringing these countries out of their darkness and backwardness. There is clearly much remaining to be done, and Britons should not shirk from completing the job. Britain is best served by a democratic and economically open Europe, which is one reason that staying in the EU is in our own interests.
All but three of those were former Iron Curtain countries and the EU had sweet FA to do with freeing them from that yoke.
Are you claiming that the newly liberated eastern bloc countries were so poorly led they were incapable of becoming functioning democracies without the EU?
I'm going to put my @Socrates hat on here: those ex Communist countries that joined the EU and looked West have done a lot better than those who stuck with Russia. Doesn't mean it couldn't have happened with some kind of EFTA/EEA, but it's hard to claim that EU membership has been a disaster for the Baltics (for example).
An EU application requires all sorts of democratic, human rights, and economic progress. It is a major carrot for these countries.
Imperfect they may be, but these are much better places for the existence of the EU.
An EU application also requires financial stability, as the Greeks had to prove when they joined.
Greece joined the EU in 1981 as I recall, well before its recent problems.
If you spend far more money than you raise in taxes over a prolonged period then the economy goes tits up, whether in or out of the EU or Euro. Its not rocket science!
Iirc the Greeks pretty heavily cooked the books in order to qualify for the Euro.
Indeed. With the connivance of both the EU and Goldman Sachs who are now making all sorts of dire claims for Brexit. It's a shame someone as opinionated as Foxinsox seemingly knows so little about the subject.
Being accused of being opinionated by you has just bust my irony meter!
I was in Latvia about 18 months ago, just a few weeks before they joined the Euro, and I asked my taxi driver:
"You're about to join the Euro, are you mad?" (or some such) and he replied "If your neighbour was Russia, you'd want to be as much a part of Europe as possible."
It was interesting how different their perspective was. And I think we all need to realise that our choices, as an island on the far West of Europe, are very different to those of a tiny country with an aggressive next door neighbour.
Not just the small countries on the eastern fringe. The Balkans, the Czech Republic, Austria, Hungary, Poland, the Netherlands, even Italy and Spain: all of these countries are either relatively new nation-states which have for centuries been subject to various tyrannies from outside, or have been outside the European mainstream for most of the post-war period. Their perspective is completely different from ours. And the same is true, for different reasons, for France and Germany.
Just watching the final episode of Occupied. A Norwegian drama set in the very near future, in which Nato has collapsed and the USA is no longer interested in getting involved in conflicts outside its shores. A new prime minister for Norway announces that he is closing the gas and oil fields, but in return will share the country's knowledge on thorium energy.
The Russians decide to 'secure' these oil fields and essentially occupy the country. All with the utter craven support of the EU.
Wow! What a captivating work of fiction. All utterly predicated on the 'collapse of NATO'. What a convenient plot device. 'the very near future' ? ha ha. Er... So? Are we expected to abandon generations of policy commitments on the basis of a crap piece of television fiction?
BTW - The Hunt for Red October was a bit of fiction not a documentary.
I think it's naive for the Leave side to think the economic risks of Brexit won't be a big factor - the decisive factor, IMO. Here are first few links to come up on a search (I'm not saying these are right, just that they are the prevailing view of mostly independent, or at least independent-sounding, sources):
The point about social protection is that the legislation is from the EU, not from Westminster. We could have passed those laws but did not. Leave puts them under threat.
Well within my lifetime Spain, Portugal, Greece, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, Croatia, Slovenia, the Czech republic, Slovakia, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia were all dictatorships and many very poorly governed. EU membership was a major driver for each of these to develop democratic and economically modern economies. We should be proud of our part in bringing these countries out of their darkness and backwardness. There is clearly much remaining to be done, and Britons should not shirk from completing the job. Britain is best served by a democratic and economically open Europe, which is one reason that staying in the EU is in our own interests.
All but three of those were former Iron Curtain countries and the EU had sweet FA to do with freeing them from that yoke.
Are you claiming that the newly liberated eastern bloc countries were so poorly led they were incapable of becoming functioning democracies without the EU?
I'm going to put my @Socrates hat on here: those ex Communist countries that joined the EU and looked West have done a lot better than those who stuck with Russia. Doesn't mean it couldn't have happened with some kind of EFTA/EEA, but it's hard to claim that EU membership has been a disaster for the Baltics (for example).
An EU application requires all sorts of democratic, human rights, and economic progress. It is a major carrot for these countries.
Imperfect they may be, but these are much better places for the existence of the EU.
An EU application also requires financial stability, as the Greeks had to prove when they joined.
Greece joined the EU in 1981 as I recall, well before its recent problems.
If you spend far more money than you raise in taxes over a prolonged period then the economy goes tits up, whether in or out of the EU or Euro. Its not rocket science!
Iirc the Greeks pretty heavily cooked the books in order to qualify for the Euro.
Indeed. With the connivance of both the EU and Goldman Sachs who are now making all sorts of dire claims for Brexit. It's a shame someone as opinionated as Foxinsox seemingly knows so little about the subject.
Being accused of being opinionated by you has just bust my irony meter!
If I were you I would concentrate on the idea that you are ignorant.
I think it's naive for the Leave side to think the economic risks of Brexit won't be a big factor - the decisive factor, IMO. Here are first few links to come up on a search (I'm not saying these are right, just that they are the prevailing view of mostly independent, or at least independent-sounding, sources):
A dream come true. We'd be able to undercut the Germans even more.
"So in order to obviate this problem," he continued, "and effectively revalue the leaf, we are about to embark on a massive defoliation campaign, and...er, burn down all the forests. I think you'll all agree that's a sensible move under the circumstances.”
I'm in a mood tonight, so you're all going to feel my acidic tongue tonight.
Came home to a letter saying I'm at real risk of losing my sight.
Hell, that's rough. Get the best medical advice you can afford.
I wish Mr Eagles well - it must be very worrying, but why do you think he needs to pay for advice about his treatment? My wife has had excellent treatment for her eyes, on the NHS. She also had excellent treatment for her thyroid condition. By all means ask for second opinions or enquire about the available consultants and leading specialists. But why suggest pay.
Because the best treatment might not be in this country?
Sure, but they don't say there won't be economic damage:
When asked whether he thought London’s status as a financial hub would suffer in the event of Brexit, Chew was less certain than Astaire, saying the City’s outcome would “very much depend on the nature of the exit” and the institutional arrangements that were put in place between Britain and Brussels.
There are obviously going to be lots of different views, but a lot of authoritative-sounding people (probably the vast majority) are going to be saying it's bad for the economy and jobs. Voters won't know who to believe, so will play safe and vote Remain. I think, and I've always thought, that it is incredibly difficult for the Leave side to counter that.
I was in Latvia about 18 months ago, just a few weeks before they joined the Euro, and I asked my taxi driver:
"You're about to join the Euro, are you mad?" (or some such) and he replied "If your neighbour was Russia, you'd want to be as much a part of Europe as possible."
It was interesting how different their perspective was. And I think we all need to realise that our choices, as an island on the far West of Europe, are very different to those of a tiny country with an aggressive next door neighbour.
Not just the small countries on the eastern fringe. The Balkans, the Czech Republic, Austria, Hungary, Poland, the Netherlands, even Italy and Spain: all of these countries are either relatively new nation-states which have for centuries been subject to various tyrannies from outside, or have been outside the European mainstream for most of the post-war period. Their perspective is completely different from ours. And the same is true, for different reasons, for France and Germany.
Just watching the final episode of Occupied. A Norwegian drama set in the very near future, in which Nato has collapsed and the USA is no longer interested in getting involved in conflicts outside its shores. A new prime minister for Norway announces that he is closing the gas and oil fields, but in return will share the country's knowledge on thorium energy.
The Russians decide to 'secure' these oil fields and essentially occupy the country. All with the utter craven support of the EU.
Wow! What a captivating work of fiction. All utterly predicated on the 'collapse of NATO'. What a convenient plot device. 'the very near future' ? ha ha. Er... So? Are we expected to abandon generations of policy commitments on the basis of a crap piece of television fiction?
BTW - The Hunt for Red October was a bit of fiction not a documentary.
Are you claiming that the newly liberated eastern bloc countries were so poorly led they were incapable of becoming functioning democracies without the EU?
That's putting it too strongly, but I think the existence of the EU and the acquis communautaire were a helpful influence.
The question I would ask is, without the EU, would those countries be more or less likely still to be democracies in, say, 2050?
One wonders how Norway and Iceland have managed to avoid becoming democratic basket cases without being under the benevolent control of the EU.
I'm not talking about "control" but about the environment in which nation states exist, the external influences on them and the competing demands on their allegiance.
I don't see that Norway or Iceland are relevant. Their history is not that of the Eastern Bloc countries.
At present almost the entire European sub-continent is singing from the liberal-democratic hymn sheet. That's a great and unprecedented thing. It may have nothing whatsoever to do with the EU. It may be that the EU has hindered this development and that democracy would be more secure in every member state if the EU didn't exist. Or it may be that the EU's influence has been at least somewhat beneficial.
Tentatively I think that the EU has been and will continue to be a benevolent institution for at least the next decade or two.
Britain Elects @britainelects Green GAIN Oswestry South (Shropshire) from Conservative.
Britain Elects @britainelects Independent GAIN Hexham West (Northumberland) from Conservative.
Not much to cheer for tonight for the blues. Opposition doing well everywhere, though still falling a little short in Cambs.
We are cheering the fact that we will soon be the Opposition in North Britain.
I quite like Ruth Davidson. She will be an excellent LOTO in Scotland. She is pro-EU as well as pro-Union. Indeed it is a shame she cannot be PM of the UK, at least for present.
I think it's naive for the Leave side to think the economic risks of Brexit won't be a big factor - the decisive factor, IMO. Here are first few links to come up on a search (I'm not saying these are right, just that they are the prevailing view of mostly independent, or at least independent-sounding, sources):
Britain Elects @britainelects Green GAIN Oswestry South (Shropshire) from Conservative.
Britain Elects @britainelects Independent GAIN Hexham West (Northumberland) from Conservative.
This isn't Dave's night.
Apparently the Oswestry loss is explained by the exiting senior Conservative having resigned over a financial conflict of interest. Mind you, Labour held onto their seat after their councillor resigned having been arrested on suspicion of drug dealing!
It's a conservative nation. This is why Dugdale's plan to put up the BR of tax will go down like cold sick.
Not sure. I don't claim to know Scottish politics but I thought that in a Thatcher-hating nation the SNP==Thatcherites stuff might get some purchase. I realise every SNP supporter here is going to say I'm a turnip (etc etc) and every SLAB supporter is going to ... not exist.
Britain Elects @britainelects Green GAIN Oswestry South (Shropshire) from Conservative.
Britain Elects @britainelects Independent GAIN Hexham West (Northumberland) from Conservative.
This isn't Dave's night.
Apparently the Oswestry loss is explained by the exiting senior Conservative having resigned over a financial conflict of interest. Mind you, Labour held onto their seat after their councillor resigned having been arrested on suspicion of drug dealing!
Or another explaination,after Dave's crap deal,some might stayed at home.
Britain Elects @britainelects Green GAIN Oswestry South (Shropshire) from Conservative.
Britain Elects @britainelects Independent GAIN Hexham West (Northumberland) from Conservative.
This isn't Dave's night.
Somebody throw a dead cat
You seen @iainmartin1 on Twitter? Agitating for Portillo to lead leave!
Yes I just saw... An absolutely perfect choice; calm manner, stylish, European parentage, extremely popular media performer, not racist, not homophobic & knows his stuff
It must be tempting for him to have one last go at political success
Sure, but they don't say there won't be economic damage:
When asked whether he thought London’s status as a financial hub would suffer in the event of Brexit, Chew was less certain than Astaire, saying the City’s outcome would “very much depend on the nature of the exit” and the institutional arrangements that were put in place between Britain and Brussels.
There are obviously going to be lots of different views, but a lot of authoritative-sounding people (probably the vast majority) are going to be saying it's bad for the economy and jobs. Voters won't know who to believe, so will play safe and vote Remain. I think, and I've always thought, that it is incredibly difficult for the Leave side to counter that.
I disagree. People's fears currently revolve about migration, and arguments that do not address that will simply be ignored, belittled, or denied: witness the exchange below that a 20% drop in GBP is a good thing?! Predictions of poor economic outcomes will have no effect, even if they're true. They'll be believed after the fact but right now they're thinking with their gut and your point will have no traction
Britain Elects @britainelects Green GAIN Oswestry South (Shropshire) from Conservative.
Britain Elects @britainelects Independent GAIN Hexham West (Northumberland) from Conservative.
This isn't Dave's night.
Apparently the Oswestry loss is explained by the exiting senior Conservative having resigned over a financial conflict of interest. Mind you, Labour held onto their seat after their councillor resigned having been arrested on suspicion of drug dealing!
There is also a row in Oswestry over a proposed large development that is supported by the Conservative council.
Edit: Another development that is to the one the former conservative resigned over after the financial scandal.
Britain Elects @britainelects Green GAIN Oswestry South (Shropshire) from Conservative.
Britain Elects @britainelects Independent GAIN Hexham West (Northumberland) from Conservative.
This isn't Dave's night.
Apparently the Oswestry loss is explained by the exiting senior Conservative having resigned over a financial conflict of interest. Mind you, Labour held onto their seat after their councillor resigned having been arrested on suspicion of drug dealing!
There is also a row in Oswestry over a proposed large development that is supported by the Conservative council.
Edit: Another development that is to the one the former conservative resigned over after the financial scandal.
Con ahead of Labour in a YouGov Scottish poll - 20 constituency, 20 list for Con and 19/20 for Labour.
According to ScotlandVotes, those poll figures would give constituency+list seat totals of Con 6+19 and Lab 0+26!
How does an equal list vote for both parties equate to Lab winning more seats (26 vs 25)?
Variation in D'Hondt allocation among the Scottish regions, based on UNS movements. It's still a constituency based system, not pure national PR, and subject to slight bias.
Con ahead of Labour in a YouGov Scottish poll - 20 constituency, 20 list for Con and 19/20 for Labour.
According to ScotlandVotes, those poll figures would give constituency+list seat totals of Con 6+19 and Lab 0+26!
How does an equal list vote for both parties equate to Lab winning more seats (26 vs 25)?
Variation in D'Hondt allocation among the Scottish regions, based on UNS movements. It's still a constituency based system, not pure national PR, and subject to slight bias.
How on earth did anything like that ever get to be part of the UK constitution? Oh yes, Labour's botched devolution settlement. Utterly perverse!
Con ahead of Labour in a YouGov Scottish poll - 20 constituency, 20 list for Con and 19/20 for Labour.
According to ScotlandVotes, those poll figures would give constituency+list seat totals of Con 6+19 and Lab 0+26!
How does an equal list vote for both parties equate to Lab winning more seats (26 vs 25)?
Variation in D'Hondt allocation among the Scottish regions, based on UNS movements. It's still a constituency based system, not pure national PR, and subject to slight bias.
How on earth did anything like that ever get to be part of the UK constitution? Oh yes, Labour's botched devolution settlement. Utterly perverse!
It's considerably less perverse than pure FPTP which, as you may have noticed, also involves constituencies and all their attendant pathologies...
I find it staggering that Hills continue to offer decimal odds of 3.5 (aka 5/2) against a LEAVE vote in the referendum in the light of YouGov's latest poll in this morning's Times, which shows LEAVE on 45% compared with REMAIN on 36%. Consequently there's currently an arbitrage position with Betfair's lay price of 3.05 (3.11 net of their 5% commission) ...... this won't last long that's for sure! DYOR.
BTW .... those nice people at Wm. Hill continue to offer Cameron ceasing to be Tory Party Leader during the course of 2016 at odds of 12/1. What price this bet should he lose the referendum in June? Especially bearing in mind that he'd have you believe that he and he alone has been responsible for the entire so-called renegotiation process involving him sweet talking any number of European leaders. DYOR.
BTW .... those nice people at Wm. Hill continue to offer Cameron ceasing to be Tory Party Leader during the course of 2016 at odds of 12/1. What price this bet should he lose the referendum in June? Especially bearing in mind that he'd have you believe that he and he alone has been responsible for the entire so-called renegotiation process involving him sweet talking any number of European leaders. DYOR.
It does now seem likely that the referendum will be in June. I think 12-1 on Cameron to go in 2016 is a much better bet than 5-2 on Britain voting to leave the EU. I cannot see how Cameron can stay on as PM if we vote to leave the EU - but then he'll probably find someway to cling to power.
The point about social protection is that the legislation is from the EU, not from Westminster. We could have passed those laws but did not. Leave puts them under threat.
Well within my lifetime Spain, Portugal, Greece, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, Croatia, Slovenia, the Czech republic, Slovakia, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia were all dictatorships and many very poorly governed. EU membership was a major driver for each of these to develop democratic and economically modern economies. We should be proud of our part in bringing these countries out of their darkness and backwardness. There is clearly much remaining to be done, and Britons should not shirk from completing the job. Britain is best served by a democratic and economically open Europe, which is one reason that staying in the EU is in our own interests.
All but three of those were former Iron Curtain countries and the EU had sweet FA to do with freeing them from that yoke.
Are you claiming that the newly liberated eastern bloc countries were so poorly led they were incapable of becoming functioning democracies without the EU?
I'm going to put my @Socrates hat on here: those ex Communist countries that joined the EU and looked West have done a lot better than those who stuck with Russia. Doesn't mean it couldn't have happened with some kind of EFTA/EEA, but it's hard to claim that EU membership has been a disaster for the Baltics (for example).
An EU application requires all sorts of democratic, human rights, and economic progress. It is a major carrot for these countries.
Imperfect they may be, but these are much better places for the existence of the EU.
An EU application also requires financial stability, as the Greeks had to prove when they joined.
That bit's easy. You just hire Goldman Sachs
BTW @rcs1000 how can GS even have the moxy to *ask* Malyasia for $589m in fees on a $6.5bn fund raising.
Market rate would be $10-12m. Even with some fancy derivatives they do basically scalp their clients.
The movements of people in Syria are truly biblical. I don't know how Turkey or Europe is going to cope with this situation, sadly.
It is no longer just the ME but also Europe that is paying a heavy price for the regime change policies of our leaders. Cameron has a lot to answer for with both Libya and Syria, but he hasn't be held to account so far and I don't expect the media to start doing so anytime soon. Certainly didn't learn the lesson of Iraq.
TSE - just saw your news. That sounds shit - hope everything works out for you.
If it's helpful, I've got a really good retinal specialist in Oxford - he is the guys who looks after RAF pilots post ejector seat usage & fast descent SAS/SBS troops.
Very much at the cutting edge of science as well - one of the top guys in gene therapy (particularly in diabetic retinopathy from memory)
TSE - just saw your news. That sounds shit - hope everything works out for you.
If it's helpful, I've got a really good retinal specialist in Oxford - he is the guys who looks after RAF pilots post ejector seat usage & fast descent SAS/SBS troops.
Very much at the cutting edge of science as well - one of the top guys in gene therapy (particularly in diabetic retinopathy from memory)
TSE - just saw your news. That sounds shit - hope everything works out for you.
If it's helpful, I've got a really good retinal specialist in Oxford - he is the guys who looks after RAF pilots post ejector seat usage & fast descent SAS/SBS troops.
Very much at the cutting edge of science as well - one of the top guys in gene therapy (particularly in diabetic retinopathy from memory)
TSE - just saw your news. That sounds shit - hope everything works out for you.
If it's helpful, I've got a really good retinal specialist in Oxford - he is the guys who looks after RAF pilots post ejector seat usage & fast descent SAS/SBS troops.
Very much at the cutting edge of science as well - one of the top guys in gene therapy (particularly in diabetic retinopathy from memory)
I had a scare a few years back with something called 'Posterior Vitreous Detachment' (no, my glass bottom didn't fall off) - and apart from irritating floaters all fine now - but it must be a jolly worrying time....
Just suppose the polls over the coming weeks follow this morning's lead by YouGov in showing LEAVE as having a clear lead, what does Cameron do next? Press on regardless, with seemingly every likelihood of his being defeated in June and a very personal defeat that indeed would be? Or does he decide that discretion is the better part of valour and attempt to negotiate better terms no matter how dim his prospects of success might seem? Or does he simply find some pretext, eg "more pressing business" for delaying the referendum, perhaps until next year? Tricky, possibly very tricky for him
Edit: Btw I don't think the media, nor the public will take too kindly to Stuart Rose's nanny-like suggestion that polls should be prohibited in the final two week period prior to the referendum date.
TSE - just saw your news. That sounds shit - hope everything works out for you.
If it's helpful, I've got a really good retinal specialist in Oxford - he is the guys who looks after RAF pilots post ejector seat usage & fast descent SAS/SBS troops.
Very much at the cutting edge of science as well - one of the top guys in gene therapy (particularly in diabetic retinopathy from memory)
Comments
In all my 60 years I don't think I have ever met a more duplicitous group of people as Europhiles.
I'm in a mood tonight, so you're all going to feel my acidic tongue tonight.
Came home to a letter saying I'm at real risk of losing my sight.
Sorry to hear this,hope everything goes Ok.
The Russians decide to 'secure' these oil fields and essentially occupy the country. All with the utter craven support of the EU.
You have a vote -- A VOTE! -- this is not a government whipping a vote through parliament.
It is a referendum and you can vote.
We all can and we can all think about it and take the consequences. No one to blame but you YOU for your vote and its outcome.
But one way or another I suspect weasels like you will always find a way to blame someone else.
RIP Harry Harpham, MP for Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough.
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/feb/04/brexit--slash-sterling-20-warns-goldman-sachs
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/1a86ab36-afbe-11e5-b955-1a1d298b6250.html#axzz3zFLD0E9M
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jan/25/brexit-would-trigger-economic-financial-shock-for-uk
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/videos/2016-01-07/how-brexit-fears-are-beginning-to-impact-u-k-economy
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-02-01/here-s-what-happens-to-the-u-k-economy-in-a-brexit-scenario
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/12122506/Devastating-Brexit-will-consign-Europe-to-a-second-rate-world-power-warns-Deutsche-Bank.html
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jan/23/brexit-fears-fuel-market-turmoil-imf-chief-says
The Leave side need a pretty good answer to that lot (and one that's better than 'Europhile scaremongering')
The Euro was badly implemented. The Eurozone have to live with what they started - they were foolish. A struggling Eurozone economy is equally bad news for our industry
A dream come true. We'd be able to undercut the Germans even more.
Greece joined the Euro in 2001. They did fiddle some figures to enter, but the real problem is that they took advantage of the resulting low interest rates to borrow far more than they could afford to repay. The EU cannot protect countries against themselves, at least as arranged at present.
What a captivating work of fiction. All utterly predicated on the 'collapse of NATO'. What a convenient plot device. 'the very near future' ? ha ha.
Er... So?
Are we expected to abandon generations of policy commitments on the basis of a crap piece of television fiction?
BTW - The Hunt for Red October was a bit of fiction not a documentary.
Jazz musician on #bbctw just said that Cecil Rhodes was a “predatory paedophile”. Eh? Anyone else heard that allegation?
http://www.cityam.com/231841/eu-referendum-barclays-hsbc-bosses-give-evidence-to-mps-on-britains-eu-membership-say-city-would-thrive-after-brexit
How do we reconcile that?
Foreign owned exporting countries sending their profits abroad.
When asked whether he thought London’s status as a financial hub would suffer in the event of Brexit, Chew was less certain than Astaire, saying the City’s outcome would “very much depend on the nature of the exit” and the institutional arrangements that were put in place between Britain and Brussels.
There are obviously going to be lots of different views, but a lot of authoritative-sounding people (probably the vast majority) are going to be saying it's bad for the economy and jobs. Voters won't know who to believe, so will play safe and vote Remain. I think, and I've always thought, that it is incredibly difficult for the Leave side to counter that.
Sturgeon plus 30
Davidson plus 4
Dugdale minus 18
Britain Elects @britainelects
Green GAIN Oswestry South (Shropshire) from Conservative.
Britain Elects @britainelects
Independent GAIN Hexham West (Northumberland) from Conservative.
GRN: 48.8% (+17.1)
CON: 34.6% (-11.4)
LAB: 9.0% (+9.0)
LDEM: 7.6% (+1.8)
Sturgeon minus 8
Dugdale minus 5
Davidson plus 3
I don't see that Norway or Iceland are relevant. Their history is not that of the Eastern Bloc countries.
At present almost the entire European sub-continent is singing from the liberal-democratic hymn sheet. That's a great and unprecedented thing. It may have nothing whatsoever to do with the EU. It may be that the EU has hindered this development and that democracy would be more secure in every member state if the EU didn't exist. Or it may be that the EU's influence has been at least somewhat beneficial.
Tentatively I think that the EU has been and will continue to be a benevolent institution for at least the next decade or two.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-35495157
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/11880823/Ruth-Davidson-backs-EU-with-or-without-reform.html
YouGov/Times:
CON 39 (=)
LAB 29 (-1)
LIB 6 (=)
UKIP 18 (+1)
GRN 3 (=)
SNP 4 (=)
Dates 3rd-4th Feb
Big mistake for the Tories to oppose AV in 2011.
They should rerun the AV ref in 2017
It must be tempting for him to have one last go at political success
He was 33/1 wasn't he? I didn't back it
Edit: Another development that is to the one the former conservative resigned over after the financial scandal.
John Mann MP PMQ - 3rd February 2016
"Is that it? Is that the best the Prime Minister can do?"
"Nothing for British pensioners. Nothing for British workers."
"And as the OBR and Treasury have confirmed, his long term economic plan is reliant on over a million new migrants entering the UK for work by 2020."
"Has he got the bottle to confirm this inconvenient truth?"
GOP Trump 29, Rubio 18, Cruz 13, Kasich 12, Bush 10, Christie 4, Fiorina 4, Carson 2, Paul, Huckabee, Santorum
Dems Sanders 61, Clinton 30, O'Malley
http://edition.cnn.com/2016/02/04/politics/new-hampshire-republican-cnn-wmur-poll/index.html
Look how well that went.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_United_Kingdom_MPs_with_the_shortest_service
Condolences to all who knew him.
I find it staggering that Hills continue to offer decimal odds of 3.5 (aka 5/2) against a LEAVE vote in the referendum in the light of YouGov's latest poll in this morning's Times, which shows LEAVE on 45% compared with REMAIN on 36%.
Consequently there's currently an arbitrage position with Betfair's lay price of 3.05 (3.11 net of their 5% commission) ...... this won't last long that's for sure!
DYOR.
DYOR.
BTW @rcs1000 how can GS even have the moxy to *ask* Malyasia for $589m in fees on a $6.5bn fund raising.
Market rate would be $10-12m. Even with some fancy derivatives they do basically scalp their clients.
How can you justify that kind of culture?
http://www.ibtimes.com/czech-president-blames-western-invasion-middle-east-illegal-immigration-europe-2035820
Still at least stability is now being restored to Syria, providing Turkey does nothing crazy like overtly invade.
https://twitter.com/edwardedark/status/694936992807809024
TSE - just saw your news. That sounds shit - hope everything works out for you.
If it's helpful, I've got a really good retinal specialist in Oxford - he is the guys who looks after RAF pilots post ejector seat usage & fast descent SAS/SBS troops.
Very much at the cutting edge of science as well - one of the top guys in gene therapy (particularly in diabetic retinopathy from memory)
Happy to make an introduction if you would like
http://www.ndcn.ox.ac.uk/team/robert-maclaren
Hope all goes well for Mr TSE
I had a scare a few years back with something called 'Posterior Vitreous Detachment' (no, my glass bottom didn't fall off) - and apart from irritating floaters all fine now - but it must be a jolly worrying time....
Press on regardless, with seemingly every likelihood of his being defeated in June and a very personal defeat that indeed would be? Or does he decide that discretion is the better part of valour and attempt to negotiate better terms no matter how dim his prospects of success might seem? Or does he simply find some pretext, eg "more pressing business" for delaying the referendum, perhaps until next year?
Tricky, possibly very tricky for him
Edit: Btw I don't think the media, nor the public will take too kindly to Stuart Rose's nanny-like suggestion that polls should be prohibited in the final two week period prior to the referendum date.