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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tonight’s local by-election line-up: 3 CON defences and a L

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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,137
    Sean_F said:

    Shocking story on the front page of the Indy. £110 for a one word email, is that all? I know someone who billed two hours worth of time for a one word email.

    https://twitter.com/suttonnick/status/695360901117906945

    Martyn Day charged £900 an hour in the Trafigura case, and sought a 100% uplift as a success fee. The Court of Appeal told him he was taking the piss.
    I know a senior partner of a Brum law firm who used to charge a days fees when he travelled across the international date line... a route which he deliberately used to engineer.
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    The discussion on Newsnight shows just what the hysteria is thats driving the SNP. It's their unilateral anti nuclear (and ultimately pacifist) loony left military position. The dipsticks clearly see the SNP as a vehicle to pursue their desire to undermine the Western Alliance.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,059

    I've heard an unconfirmed rumour that the Labour MP for Sheffield Brightside has died

    Wikipedia agrees with you: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Harry_Harpham
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    sladeslade Posts: 1,940
    RobD said:

    slade said:

    RobD said:

    slade said:

    O/T: I have just been watching World War Three on iplayer. No, not the real thing but a drama/documentary about a hypothetical. The thesis is that Russia is interfering in the Baltic states along the lines of Georgia, Crimea and Ukraine. Various real people ( Cristopher Mayer, Lord West, Lord Arbuthnot, etc. play roles as members of the committee which makes the decisions aboiut British response. To cut to the chase - Russia launches its ICBMs and Britain decides to do nothing - because deterrence has failed. Says everything really.

    Who do they launch their ICBMs at? If it is at us, surely the sub commanders rely on the PMs letter, not the decision of any committee.
    There was escalation. Nato responded to a Russian 'aid' convoy to ethnic Russians in Latvia by sending in a task force to take them out; the Russians responded by launching a tactical nuclear weapon at HMS Ocean in the Baltic, and then the USA retaliate with a tactical attack against a Russian target. You see the picture?
    Sounds like a proportional response.
    and then the Russians launched their ICBMs. Millions would die - and the Brits said why add to that figure.
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    runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    Once upon a time the Lib Dems would have been getting all excited now
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Very sad news, just a few months after being elected for the first time.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,936
    viewcode said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Dimbleby jumping down Rudd's throat a bit fast there...

    To be fair, he was rubbish in Ant Man
    Dimbleby wasn't in Ant-Man.
    Although Paxman was Groot in Guardians.
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    Harry Harpham, MP for Sheffield Brightside, has died tonight. Cancer
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    WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838

    I've heard an unconfirmed rumour that the Labour MP for Sheffield Brightside has died

    Confirmed: https://m.facebook.com/Harry4brighthills/posts/1699163240299772
    Tory vote was only 4k. Not a lot to squeeze.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,059
    runnymede said:

    Once upon a time the Lib Dems would have been getting all excited now

    They're pretty excited at the possibility of keeping their deposit!
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    UKIP could win Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough.

    Everyone can't stand the fecking Roma, including the third generation Muslims.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,936
    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Dimbleby jumping down Rudd's throat a bit fast there...

    To be fair, he was rubbish in Ant Man
    Dimbleby wasn't in Ant-Man.
    Although Paxman was Groot in Guardians.
    And Evan Davis was Gollum [That's enough references - Ed]
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    I've heard an unconfirmed rumour that the Labour MP for Sheffield Brightside has died

    His Wikipedia entry is already saying he (Harry Harpham) has died. That is fast (and I would suggest rather heartless) going by someone!
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    Interesting result in Measham:

    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects

    Measham South (NW Leicestershire) result:
    LAB: 42.8% (-12.3)
    CON: 33.7% (-11.2)
    UKIP: 23.5% (+23.5)
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    And VI:

    YouGov/Times:

    CON 39 (=)
    LAB 29 (-1)
    LIB 6 (=)
    UKIP 18 (+1)
    GRN 3 (=)
    SNP 4 (=)

    Dates 3rd-4th Feb
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    UKIP could win Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough.

    Everyone can't stand the fecking Roma, including the third generation Muslims.

    They could. They won't.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,126
    Will this be Cameron's chance?

    "I'm sorry Donald. This was a great deal but I can't risk putting it to the country after Sheffield has just sent a signal by returning a UKIP MP. We'll need more..."
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @britainelects: Westminster voting intention:
    CON: 39% (-)
    LAB: 29% (-1)
    UKIP: 18% (+1)
    LDEM: 6% (-)
    GRN: 3% (-)
    (via YouGov / 03 - 04 Feb)
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,126

    Voodoo fucking poll alert

    What on earth has Shane Warne done to his face?

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    WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838

    Voodoo fucking poll alert

    lol, the Express is awesome
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    Voodoo fucking poll alert

    twitter.com/suttonnick/status/695382641424539648

    Did you hear about the psephologist from Warsaw who moved to Haiti?

    He became a Voodoo Pole :lol:
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,986
    What the fuck does Bradford's ethnic makeup have to do with the EU.

    Sweet Jesus.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    UKIP could win Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough.

    Everyone can't stand the fecking Roma, including the third generation Muslims.

    How many Roma are there in the seat?
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    EPGEPG Posts: 6,013
    Today I learned
    Tax and spend cuts are evil when the SNP does them but right when George Osborne does them
    The EU did nothing for peace in Europe but without Trident the continent will be rent asunder by war and Scottish pacifists

    I guess they hate you more when you are winning rather than when you are Corbyn, I mean losing
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    And VI:

    YouGov/Times:

    CON 39 (=)
    LAB 29 (-1)
    LIB 6 (=)
    UKIP 18 (+1)
    GRN 3 (=)
    SNP 4 (=)

    Dates 3rd-4th Feb

    Broken, sleazy Labour on the slide?
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    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    edited February 2016
    Splits on the referendum (excl. WNV/DK)

    Con 38-62
    Lab 70-30
    LD 71-29
    UKIP 2-98
    Others 75-25

    Tories have the most DK at 22%

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/4mzy46afe7/TimesResults_160204_EUReferendumDay1.pdf
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    Wanderer said:

    Voodoo fucking poll alert

    lol, the Express is awesome
    I am waiting for the "Diana Would have Voted Leave - Psychic Pshock" headline. :-)
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    john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    edited February 2016
    @SandyRentool


    'BoJo is calling for two fecking great road tunnels under London. "Tens of billions £££". So the rest of the country is expected to sub London yet again.'


    And the rest of the country is subed year in year out by taxes generated in London.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    EPG said:

    Today I learned
    Tax and spend cuts are evil when the SNP does them but right when George Osborne does them

    Says who?

    Swinney is delivering a Tory agenda for Scotland. What's not to like?
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,936
    edited February 2016
    slade said:

    RobD said:

    slade said:

    RobD said:

    slade said:

    O/T: I have just been watching World War Three on iplayer. No, not the real thing but a drama/documentary about a hypothetical. The thesis is that Russia is interfering in the Baltic states along the lines of Georgia, Crimea and Ukraine. Various real people ( Cristopher Mayer, Lord West, Lord Arbuthnot, etc. play roles as members of the committee which makes the decisions aboiut British response. To cut to the chase - Russia launches its ICBMs and Britain decides to do nothing - because deterrence has failed. Says everything really.

    Who do they launch their ICBMs at? If it is at us, surely the sub commanders rely on the PMs letter, not the decision of any committee.
    There was escalation. Nato responded to a Russian 'aid' convoy to ethnic Russians in Latvia by sending in a task force to take them out; the Russians responded by launching a tactical nuclear weapon at HMS Ocean in the Baltic, and then the USA retaliate with a tactical attack against a Russian target. You see the picture?
    Sounds like a proportional response.
    and then the Russians launched their ICBMs. Millions would die - and the Brits said why add to that figure.
    I'm disappointed by the program. And I'm not the only one. Deterrence only works if the other side believes we will act destructively if attacked. It's not illegitimate to kill those who have killed you.
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    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Dimbleby jumping down Rudd's throat a bit fast there...

    To be fair, he was rubbish in Ant Man
    Dimbleby wasn't in Ant-Man.
    Although Paxman was Groot in Guardians.
    And Evan Davis was Gollum [That's enough references - Ed]
    I've written a Lord of The Rings thread for PB for a few weekends hence.

    Corbyn as Sauron. John McDonell as Saruman, Seamus Milne as Wormtongue

    I'm really proud of a Battle of Pelennor Fields analogy I've come up with
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    Wanderer said:

    Voodoo fucking poll alert

    lol, the Express is awesome
    I am waiting for the "Diana Would have Voted Leave - Psychic Pshock" headline. :-)
    So would Lord Lucan, Shergar is uncertain at the moment
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,059

    Will this be Cameron's chance?

    "I'm sorry Donald. This was a great deal but I can't risk putting it to the country after Sheffield has just sent a signal by returning a UKIP MP. We'll need more..."

    Historically, I think it might.

    But I think the Eurozone countries, in general, are beginning to realise that the split between the Eurozone and the non-EZ countries just isn't going to work. Five years from now, I think it is entirely possible that the EU will consist solely of the Eurozone and soon to be Eurozone countries.

    Simply: it should have been realised before that the divergence of interests between those signed up to "Ever Closer Union" and the rest was going to cause problems.

    The Eurozone crisis, and the necessary structural changes they need, have changed the playing field. We should use this opportunity to leave the party; not in malice, not with the hope we precipitate a collapse, but simply because the Eurozone, non-Eurozone split doesn't work.

    It's time that us and Sweden, and maybe a few others, detatched ourselves. We should do this by making EFTA/EEA great again. We should benefit from access to the single market, and be a supportive friend, but us and them need to realise we are not on the same path.

    Time to go.
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    isamisam Posts: 40,983
    Why should the government have to pay to help people speak English? If you were born here you should surely be able to pick it up, & if you weren't born here you should have learnt it before you came
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,927
    Things that stand out from that poll.

    Only 34% of Conservatives think the PM achieved a good deal. 23% of Conservatives expected the PM to achieve a good deal, but think he did worse than they expected. Conservatives support Leave by 48/30%, albeit I'd expect most don't knows to favour Remain.

    UKIP are on 18%, 21% with men, and 22% with voters over 40.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited February 2016
    @Perdix

    The point about social protection is that the legislation is from the EU, not from Westminster. We could have passed those laws but did not. Leave puts them under threat.

    Well within my lifetime Spain, Portugal, Greece, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, Croatia, Slovenia, the Czech republic, Slovakia, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia were all dictatorships and many very poorly governed. EU membership was a major driver for each of these to develop democratic and economically modern economies. We should be proud of our part in bringing these countries out of their darkness and backwardness. There is clearly much remaining to be done, and Britons should not shirk from completing the job. Britain is best served by a democratic and economically open Europe, which is one reason that staying in the EU is in our own interests.
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    WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838

    twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/695384763335446528

    I think even an even(ish) split is bad for Remain at this point. The last couple of days have been Remain's moment, it's unveiling of the goods. If it's not ahead now it's, hmm, tricky.
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    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Pulpstar said:

    What the fuck does Bradford's ethnic makeup have to do with the EU.

    Sweet Jesus.

    Mr star,I gave up watching that leftwing propaganda show a couple of years ago'I advise you do the same ;-)

    You will feel alot better for it ;-)
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    Voodoo fucking poll alert

    What on earth has Shane Warne done to his face?

    I met him last Summer, though it could have been his Madame Tussaud dummy, the two Thai hookers looked real enough though.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,059
    isam said:

    Why should the government have to pay to help people speak English? If you were born here you should surely be able to pick it up, & if you weren't born here you should have learnt it before you came

    Ummm... if you changed the word "speak" to "read", you'd be advocating an extraordinary change to the UK education system.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,059

    Voodoo fucking poll alert

    What on earth has Shane Warne done to his face?

    I met him last Summer, though it could have been his Madame Tussaud dummy, the two Thai hookers looked real enough though.
    Were you with SeanT?
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    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    Interesting result in Measham:

    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects

    Measham South (NW Leicestershire) result:
    LAB: 42.8% (-12.3)
    CON: 33.7% (-11.2)
    UKIP: 23.5% (+23.5)

    Ukip on the rise again ?
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    @Perdix

    The point about social protection is that the legislation is from the EU, not from Westminster. We could have passed those laws but did not. Leave puts them under threat.

    Well within my lifetime Spain, Portugal, Greece, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, Croatia, Slovenia, the Czech republic, Slovakia, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia were all dictatorships and many very poorly governed. EU membership was a major driver for each of these to develop democratic and economically modern economies. We should be proud of our part in bringing these countries out of their darkness and backwardness. There is clearly much remaining to be done, and Britons should not shirk from completing the job. Britain is best served by a democratic and economically open Europe, which is one reason that staying in the EU is in our own interests.

    All but three of those were former Iron Curtain countries and the EU had sweet FA to do with freeing them from that yoke.

    Are you claiming that the newly liberated eastern bloc countries were so poorly led they were incapable of becoming functioning democracies without the EU?
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    WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    isam said:

    Why should the government have to pay to help people speak English? If you were born here you should surely be able to pick it up, & if you weren't born here you should have learnt it before you came

    I would be up for the Government paying if it were also made compulsory to learn. The Danes used to do something like that, maybe still do.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,927

    @Perdix

    The point about social protection is that the legislation is from the EU, not from Westminster. We could have passed those laws but did not. Leave puts them under threat.

    Well within my lifetime Spain, Portugal, Greece, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, Croatia, Slovenia, the Czech republic, Slovakia, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia were all dictatorships and many very poorly governed. EU membership was a major driver for each of these to develop democratic and economically modern economies. We should be proud of our part in bringing these countries out of their darkness and backwardness. There is clearly much remaining to be done, and Britons should not shirk from completing the job. Britain is best served by a democratic and economically open Europe, which is one reason that staying in the EU is in our own interests.

    I'm quite content that social protection laws affecting this country are determined by our own Parliament..

    On balance, I view the EU as a force for bad, not good, governance.
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    rcs1000 said:

    Voodoo fucking poll alert

    What on earth has Shane Warne done to his face?

    I met him last Summer, though it could have been his Madame Tussaud dummy, the two Thai hookers looked real enough though.
    Were you with SeanT?
    Haha, no but it wasn't far from where he lives!
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    UKIP could win Sheffield Brightside and Hillsborough.

    Everyone can't stand the fecking Roma, including the third generation Muslims.

    They could. They won't.
    Come on, I have to raise the expectations unrealistically for UKIP so I can mock them when they fail to reach them :lol:
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    isamisam Posts: 40,983
    The reason Cameron 'picked on' Muslims inability to speak English and not integrating is surely because they are the ones going to MENA and plotting to kill us all? If it were Sikhs he would have said Sikhs, if it were poles he'd have said poles
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    EPGEPG Posts: 6,013
    Wanderer said:

    twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/695384763335446528

    I think even an even(ish) split is bad for Remain at this point. The last couple of days have been Remain's moment, it's unveiling of the goods. If it's not ahead now it's, hmm, tricky.
    Remain will not be running on Cam's pieces of paper but on fear of losing big employers from the South East and some urban centres elsewhere
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,059

    @Perdix

    The point about social protection is that the legislation is from the EU, not from Westminster. We could have passed those laws but did not. Leave puts them under threat.

    Well within my lifetime Spain, Portugal, Greece, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, Croatia, Slovenia, the Czech republic, Slovakia, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia were all dictatorships and many very poorly governed. EU membership was a major driver for each of these to develop democratic and economically modern economies. We should be proud of our part in bringing these countries out of their darkness and backwardness. There is clearly much remaining to be done, and Britons should not shirk from completing the job. Britain is best served by a democratic and economically open Europe, which is one reason that staying in the EU is in our own interests.

    All but three of those were former Iron Curtain countries and the EU had sweet FA to do with freeing them from that yoke.

    Are you claiming that the newly liberated eastern bloc countries were so poorly led they were incapable of becoming functioning democracies without the EU?
    I'm going to put my @Socrates hat on here: those ex Communist countries that joined the EU and looked West have done a lot better than those who stuck with Russia. Doesn't mean it couldn't have happened with some kind of EFTA/EEA, but it's hard to claim that EU membership has been a disaster for the Baltics (for example).
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    rcs1000 said:

    @Perdix

    The point about social protection is that the legislation is from the EU, not from Westminster. We could have passed those laws but did not. Leave puts them under threat.

    Well within my lifetime Spain, Portugal, Greece, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, Croatia, Slovenia, the Czech republic, Slovakia, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia were all dictatorships and many very poorly governed. EU membership was a major driver for each of these to develop democratic and economically modern economies. We should be proud of our part in bringing these countries out of their darkness and backwardness. There is clearly much remaining to be done, and Britons should not shirk from completing the job. Britain is best served by a democratic and economically open Europe, which is one reason that staying in the EU is in our own interests.

    All but three of those were former Iron Curtain countries and the EU had sweet FA to do with freeing them from that yoke.

    Are you claiming that the newly liberated eastern bloc countries were so poorly led they were incapable of becoming functioning democracies without the EU?
    I'm going to put my @Socrates hat on here: those ex Communist countries that joined the EU and looked West have done a lot better than those who stuck with Russia. Doesn't mean it couldn't have happened with some kind of EFTA/EEA, but it's hard to claim that EU membership has been a disaster for the Baltics (for example).
    Oh dear, you know that's going to upset you know who.
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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,936

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Dimbleby jumping down Rudd's throat a bit fast there...

    To be fair, he was rubbish in Ant Man
    Dimbleby wasn't in Ant-Man.
    Although Paxman was Groot in Guardians.
    And Evan Davis was Gollum [That's enough references - Ed]
    I've written a Lord of The Rings thread for PB for a few weekends hence.

    Corbyn as Sauron. John McDonell as Saruman, Seamus Milne as Wormtongue

    I'm really proud of a Battle of Pelennor Fields analogy I've come up with
    Pelennor Fields is a defeat for Mordor forces. Who do you see beating Corbyn/Sauron?
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,059

    rcs1000 said:

    @Perdix

    The point about social protection is that the legislation is from the EU, not from Westminster. We could have passed those laws but did not. Leave puts them under threat.

    Well within my lifetime Spain, Portugal, Greece, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, Croatia, Slovenia, the Czech republic, Slovakia, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia were all dictatorships and many very poorly governed. EU membership was a major driver for each of these to develop democratic and economically modern economies. We should be proud of our part in bringing these countries out of their darkness and backwardness. There is clearly much remaining to be done, and Britons should not shirk from completing the job. Britain is best served by a democratic and economically open Europe, which is one reason that staying in the EU is in our own interests.

    All but three of those were former Iron Curtain countries and the EU had sweet FA to do with freeing them from that yoke.

    Are you claiming that the newly liberated eastern bloc countries were so poorly led they were incapable of becoming functioning democracies without the EU?
    I'm going to put my @Socrates hat on here: those ex Communist countries that joined the EU and looked West have done a lot better than those who stuck with Russia. Doesn't mean it couldn't have happened with some kind of EFTA/EEA, but it's hard to claim that EU membership has been a disaster for the Baltics (for example).
    Oh dear, you know that's going to upset you know who.
    Don't be silly: Lovinputin1983 has gone to bed
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    EPG said:

    Wanderer said:

    twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/695384763335446528

    I think even an even(ish) split is bad for Remain at this point. The last couple of days have been Remain's moment, it's unveiling of the goods. If it's not ahead now it's, hmm, tricky.
    Remain will not be running on Cam's pieces of paper but on fear of losing big employers from the South East and some urban centres elsewhere
    A stupid strategy given that it is so easy to point out how many big employers claimed they would leave the UK if we didn't join the Euro. Of course they didn't and that sort of crying wolf is very easy to highlight.
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    EPGEPG Posts: 6,013
    isam said:

    The reason Cameron 'picked on' Muslims inability to speak English and not integrating is surely because they are the ones going to MENA and plotting to kill us all? If it were Sikhs he would have said Sikhs, if it were poles he'd have said poles

    Whites are the ones who bomb and kill Muslims?
    Men are the ones abusing women?
    This is dodgy rhetoric worthy of the PM
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    runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    But so far business isn't playing the game is it? We have had for example several major foreign investors already saying they will stay in the UK regardless of the outcome of the referendum.

    This scare story was tried when Blair wanted to get us into the euro, and it didn't work then even though a few investors did try to help it along.

    Businesses today I think are very wary of getting overtly involved in a divisive political issue of this kind. And EU membership is just not the key issue for most of them that the Remain supporters think.
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    rcs1000 said:

    @Perdix

    The point about social protection is that the legislation is from the EU, not from Westminster. We could have passed those laws but did not. Leave puts them under threat.

    Well within my lifetime Spain, Portugal, Greece, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, Croatia, Slovenia, the Czech republic, Slovakia, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia were all dictatorships and many very poorly governed. EU membership was a major driver for each of these to develop democratic and economically modern economies. We should be proud of our part in bringing these countries out of their darkness and backwardness. There is clearly much remaining to be done, and Britons should not shirk from completing the job. Britain is best served by a democratic and economically open Europe, which is one reason that staying in the EU is in our own interests.

    All but three of those were former Iron Curtain countries and the EU had sweet FA to do with freeing them from that yoke.

    Are you claiming that the newly liberated eastern bloc countries were so poorly led they were incapable of becoming functioning democracies without the EU?
    I'm going to put my @Socrates hat on here: those ex Communist countries that joined the EU and looked West have done a lot better than those who stuck with Russia. Doesn't mean it couldn't have happened with some kind of EFTA/EEA, but it's hard to claim that EU membership has been a disaster for the Baltics (for example).
    I have not claimed it was a disaster. I have just said that Dr Fox's claims that it was the EU that turned them from dictatorships into well functioning democracies is utter bollocks.
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    WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838


    Are you claiming that the newly liberated eastern bloc countries were so poorly led they were incapable of becoming functioning democracies without the EU?

    That's putting it too strongly, but I think the existence of the EU and the acquis communautaire were a helpful influence.

    The question I would ask is, without the EU, would those countries be more or less likely still to be democracies in, say, 2050?
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    edited February 2016
    rcs1000 said:

    @Perdix

    The point about social protection is that the legislation is from the EU, not from Westminster. We could have passed those laws but did not. Leave puts them under threat.

    Well within my lifetime Spain, Portugal, Greece, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, Croatia, Slovenia, the Czech republic, Slovakia, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia were all dictatorships and many very poorly governed. EU membership was a major driver for each of these to develop democratic and economically modern economies. We should be proud of our part in bringing these countries out of their darkness and backwardness. There is clearly much remaining to be done, and Britons should not shirk from completing the job. Britain is best served by a democratic and economically open Europe, which is one reason that staying in the EU is in our own interests.

    All but three of those were former Iron Curtain countries and the EU had sweet FA to do with freeing them from that yoke.

    Are you claiming that the newly liberated eastern bloc countries were so poorly led they were incapable of becoming functioning democracies without the EU?
    I'm going to put my @Socrates hat on here: those ex Communist countries that joined the EU and looked West have done a lot better than those who stuck with Russia. Doesn't mean it couldn't have happened with some kind of EFTA/EEA, but it's hard to claim that EU membership has been a disaster for the Baltics (for example).
    An EU application requires all sorts of democratic, human rights, and economic progress. It is a major carrot for these countries.

    Imperfect they may be, but these are much better places for the existence of the EU.

  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,059
    runnymede said:

    But so far business isn't playing the game is it? We have had for example several major foreign investors already saying they will stay in the UK regardless of the outcome of the referendum.

    This scare story was tried when Blair wanted to get us into the euro, and it didn't work then even though a few investors did try to help it along.

    Businesses today I think are very wary of getting overtly involved in a divisive political issue of this kind. And EU membership is just not the key issue for most of them that the Remain supporters think.

    Business is happy - in general - with EEA/EFTA. But would be more concerned with a looser arrangement.
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    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699

    Interesting result in Measham:

    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects

    Measham South (NW Leicestershire) result:
    LAB: 42.8% (-12.3)
    CON: 33.7% (-11.2)
    UKIP: 23.5% (+23.5)

    Ukip on the rise again ?
    They got 30.5% when they last contested the equivalent seat in the 2013 CC elections and came 2nd to Labour
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    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Dimbleby jumping down Rudd's throat a bit fast there...

    To be fair, he was rubbish in Ant Man
    Dimbleby wasn't in Ant-Man.
    Although Paxman was Groot in Guardians.
    And Evan Davis was Gollum [That's enough references - Ed]
    I've written a Lord of The Rings thread for PB for a few weekends hence.

    Corbyn as Sauron. John McDonell as Saruman, Seamus Milne as Wormtongue

    I'm really proud of a Battle of Pelennor Fields analogy I've come up with
    Pelennor Fields is a defeat for Mordor forces. Who do you see beating Corbyn/Sauron?
    Dan Jarvis.

    Labour are getting buggered senseless over the 'Threat to National Security' meme.

    Major Dan Jarvis will help neutralise that attack.

    Plus history does repeat itself, Labour used to be led by a pacifist, then he was toppled by an Army major who led Labour to a landslide victory and ushered in so much change for the country.
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    Wanderer said:


    Are you claiming that the newly liberated eastern bloc countries were so poorly led they were incapable of becoming functioning democracies without the EU?

    That's putting it too strongly, but I think the existence of the EU and the acquis communautaire were a helpful influence.

    The question I would ask is, without the EU, would those countries be more or less likely still to be democracies in, say, 2050?
    One wonders how Norway and Iceland have managed to avoid becoming democratic basket cases without being under the benevolent control of the EU.
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    isamisam Posts: 40,983
    Say 'UKIP doing well' after 11pm and 'piffpaffpoof' : A senior moment
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    EPG said:

    Wanderer said:

    twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/695384763335446528

    I think even an even(ish) split is bad for Remain at this point. The last couple of days have been Remain's moment, it's unveiling of the goods. If it's not ahead now it's, hmm, tricky.
    Remain will not be running on Cam's pieces of paper but on fear of losing big employers from the South East and some urban centres elsewhere
    A stupid strategy given that it is so easy to point out how many big employers claimed they would leave the UK if we didn't join the Euro. Of course they didn't and that sort of crying wolf is very easy to highlight.
    All they have is scaremongering, I find it staggering they accuse the Out campaign of that when there is not one single cohesive argument for staying in.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,059

    rcs1000 said:

    @Perdix

    The point about social protection is that the legislation is from the EU, not from Westminster. We could have passed those laws but did not. Leave puts them under threat.

    Well within my lifetime Spain, Portugal, Greece, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, Croatia, Slovenia, the Czech republic, Slovakia, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia were all dictatorships and many very poorly governed. EU membership was a major driver for each of these to develop democratic and economically modern economies. We should be proud of our part in bringing these countries out of their darkness and backwardness. There is clearly much remaining to be done, and Britons should not shirk from completing the job. Britain is best served by a democratic and economically open Europe, which is one reason that staying in the EU is in our own interests.

    All but three of those were former Iron Curtain countries and the EU had sweet FA to do with freeing them from that yoke.

    Are you claiming that the newly liberated eastern bloc countries were so poorly led they were incapable of becoming functioning democracies without the EU?
    I'm going to put my @Socrates hat on here: those ex Communist countries that joined the EU and looked West have done a lot better than those who stuck with Russia. Doesn't mean it couldn't have happened with some kind of EFTA/EEA, but it's hard to claim that EU membership has been a disaster for the Baltics (for example).
    I have not claimed it was a disaster. I have just said that Dr Fox's claims that it was the EU that turned them from dictatorships into well functioning democracies is utter bollocks.
    I was in Latvia about 18 months ago, just a few weeks before they joined the Euro, and I asked my taxi driver:

    "You're about to join the Euro, are you mad?" (or some such)
    and he replied
    "If your neighbour was Russia, you'd want to be as much a part of Europe as possible."

    It was interesting how different their perspective was. And I think we all need to realise that our choices, as an island on the far West of Europe, are very different to those of a tiny country with an aggressive next door neighbour.
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    WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    EPG said:

    Wanderer said:

    twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/695384763335446528

    I think even an even(ish) split is bad for Remain at this point. The last couple of days have been Remain's moment, it's unveiling of the goods. If it's not ahead now it's, hmm, tricky.
    Remain will not be running on Cam's pieces of paper but on fear of losing big employers from the South East and some urban centres elsewhere
    Oh, Remain has some cards in its hand for sure. Still, it's been a bad two days for it. (I personally support Remain fwiw so I'm not talking up my own fancy, nor book, as I haven't bet yet.)
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    Factual though.

    I'm in a mood tonight, so you're all going to feel my acidic tongue tonight.

    Came home to a letter saying I'm at real risk of losing my sight.

    Hell, that's rough. Get the best medical advice you can afford.

    I wish Mr Eagles well - it must be very worrying, but why do you think he needs to pay for advice about his treatment?
    My wife has had excellent treatment for her eyes, on the NHS. She also had excellent treatment for her thyroid condition. By all means ask for second opinions or enquire about the available consultants and leading specialists. But why suggest pay.
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    WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    viewcode said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Dimbleby jumping down Rudd's throat a bit fast there...

    To be fair, he was rubbish in Ant Man
    Dimbleby wasn't in Ant-Man.
    Although Paxman was Groot in Guardians.
    And Evan Davis was Gollum [That's enough references - Ed]
    I've written a Lord of The Rings thread for PB for a few weekends hence.

    Corbyn as Sauron. John McDonell as Saruman, Seamus Milne as Wormtongue

    I'm really proud of a Battle of Pelennor Fields analogy I've come up with
    Pelennor Fields is a defeat for Mordor forces. Who do you see beating Corbyn/Sauron?
    Dan Jarvis.

    Labour are getting buggered senseless over the 'Threat to National Security' meme.

    Major Dan Jarvis will help neutralise that attack.

    Plus history does repeat itself, Labour used to be led by a pacifist, then he was toppled by an Army major who led Labour to a landslide victory and ushered in so much change for the country.
    Milne == Wormtongue is pitch-perfect
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,927
    If this poll is correct, I'd say that about 20% of Conservatives have really had their confidence in the government's ability to negotiate with the EU undermined.
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    EPGEPG Posts: 6,013

    EPG said:

    Wanderer said:

    twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/695384763335446528

    I think even an even(ish) split is bad for Remain at this point. The last couple of days have been Remain's moment, it's unveiling of the goods. If it's not ahead now it's, hmm, tricky.
    Remain will not be running on Cam's pieces of paper but on fear of losing big employers from the South East and some urban centres elsewhere
    A stupid strategy given that it is so easy to point out how many big employers claimed they would leave the UK if we didn't join the Euro. Of course they didn't and that sort of crying wolf is very easy to highlight.
    Not joining the euro was no change, leaving the EU is a change, ordinary people understand the difference
    Also the Eurosceptics, who are the only ones who buy into this meme, are already voting Leave, and are not a contestable electorate
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    rcs1000 said:

    @Perdix

    The point about social protection is that the legislation is from the EU, not from Westminster. We could have passed those laws but did not. Leave puts them under threat.

    Well within my lifetime Spain, Portugal, Greece, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, Croatia, Slovenia, the Czech republic, Slovakia, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia were all dictatorships and many very poorly governed. EU membership was a major driver for each of these to develop democratic and economically modern economies. We should be proud of our part in bringing these countries out of their darkness and backwardness. There is clearly much remaining to be done, and Britons should not shirk from completing the job. Britain is best served by a democratic and economically open Europe, which is one reason that staying in the EU is in our own interests.

    All but three of those were former Iron Curtain countries and the EU had sweet FA to do with freeing them from that yoke.

    Are you claiming that the newly liberated eastern bloc countries were so poorly led they were incapable of becoming functioning democracies without the EU?
    I'm going to put my @Socrates hat on here: those ex Communist countries that joined the EU and looked West have done a lot better than those who stuck with Russia. Doesn't mean it couldn't have happened with some kind of EFTA/EEA, but it's hard to claim that EU membership has been a disaster for the Baltics (for example).
    I have not claimed it was a disaster. I have just said that Dr Fox's claims that it was the EU that turned them from dictatorships into well functioning democracies is utter bollocks.
    Perhaps you need to re-read my post as you clearly did not understand it. I said the EU was a major driver of economic and social progress in these countries. I did not exclude other drivers.

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    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    @Perdix

    The point about social protection is that the legislation is from the EU, not from Westminster. We could have passed those laws but did not. Leave puts them under threat.

    Well within my lifetime Spain, Portugal, Greece, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, Croatia, Slovenia, the Czech republic, Slovakia, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia were all dictatorships and many very poorly governed. EU membership was a major driver for each of these to develop democratic and economically modern economies. We should be proud of our part in bringing these countries out of their darkness and backwardness. There is clearly much remaining to be done, and Britons should not shirk from completing the job. Britain is best served by a democratic and economically open Europe, which is one reason that staying in the EU is in our own interests.

    All but three of those were former Iron Curtain countries and the EU had sweet FA to do with freeing them from that yoke.

    Are you claiming that the newly liberated eastern bloc countries were so poorly led they were incapable of becoming functioning democracies without the EU?
    I'm going to put my @Socrates hat on here: those ex Communist countries that joined the EU and looked West have done a lot better than those who stuck with Russia. Doesn't mean it couldn't have happened with some kind of EFTA/EEA, but it's hard to claim that EU membership has been a disaster for the Baltics (for example).
    I have not claimed it was a disaster. I have just said that Dr Fox's claims that it was the EU that turned them from dictatorships into well functioning democracies is utter bollocks.
    I was in Latvia about 18 months ago, just a few weeks before they joined the Euro, and I asked my taxi driver:

    "You're about to join the Euro, are you mad?" (or some such)
    and he replied
    "If your neighbour was Russia, you'd want to be as much a part of Europe as possible."

    It was interesting how different their perspective was. And I think we all need to realise that our choices, as an island on the far West of Europe, are very different to those of a tiny country with an aggressive next door neighbour.
    I would suggest NATO membership gives far more security. Norway shares a land border and a large swathe of oil rich disputed ocean with Russia but certainly doesn't feel it needs to be in the EU.
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    MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    edited February 2016
    Conservatives just hang on in Bottisham E Cambs
    Con 421 LD 403 Lab 99 UKIP 43
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,986
    Illegal immigrant from Essex in Bradford...
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    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited February 2016

    The Tory MP for Bexhill and Battle has been a very naughty boy

    I hope it's not true. I know him and his wife slightly and they are a delightful family, with three daughters.

    PS Sorry to hear about the eyesight warning - hope it works out.
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    glwglw Posts: 9,551
    Sean_F said:

    If this poll is correct, I'd say that about 20% of Conservatives have really had their confidence in the government's ability to negotiate with the EU undermined.

    It should be a lot higher than 20%. I can't see how anyone could think that the government have done well.
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    runnymederunnymede Posts: 2,536
    'The question I would ask is, without the EU, would those countries be more or less likely still to be democracies in, say, 2050?'

    God what patronising drivel.

    You are presumably aware that the Czechs for example had a well-functioning democracy and highly advanced economy before these were snuffed out by a combination of Chamberlain, Hitler and Stalin?


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    isamisam Posts: 40,983

    Conservatives just hang on in Bottisham E Cambs
    Con 321 LD 403 Lab 99 UKIP 43

    Looks like they walked second place rather than hung on
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    rcs1000 said:

    @Perdix

    The point about social protection is that the legislation is from the EU, not from Westminster. We could have passed those laws but did not. Leave puts them under threat.

    Well within my lifetime Spain, Portugal, Greece, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, Croatia, Slovenia, the Czech republic, Slovakia, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia were all dictatorships and many very poorly governed. EU membership was a major driver for each of these to develop democratic and economically modern economies. We should be proud of our part in bringing these countries out of their darkness and backwardness. There is clearly much remaining to be done, and Britons should not shirk from completing the job. Britain is best served by a democratic and economically open Europe, which is one reason that staying in the EU is in our own interests.

    All but three of those were former Iron Curtain countries and the EU had sweet FA to do with freeing them from that yoke.

    Are you claiming that the newly liberated eastern bloc countries were so poorly led they were incapable of becoming functioning democracies without the EU?
    I'm going to put my @Socrates hat on here: those ex Communist countries that joined the EU and looked West have done a lot better than those who stuck with Russia. Doesn't mean it couldn't have happened with some kind of EFTA/EEA, but it's hard to claim that EU membership has been a disaster for the Baltics (for example).
    I have not claimed it was a disaster. I have just said that Dr Fox's claims that it was the EU that turned them from dictatorships into well functioning democracies is utter bollocks.
    Perhaps you need to re-read my post as you clearly did not understand it. I said the EU was a major driver of economic and social progress in these countries. I did not exclude other drivers.

    I did read it. And you were still wrong.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,059

    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    @Perdix

    The point about social protection is that the legislation is from the EU, not from Westminster. We could have passed those laws but did not. Leave puts them under threat.

    Well within my lifetime Spain, Portugal, Greece, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, Croatia, Slovenia, the Czech republic, Slovakia, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia were all dictatorships and many very poorly governed. EU membership was a major driver for each of these to develop democratic and economically modern economies. We should be proud of our part in bringing these countries out of their darkness and backwardness. There is clearly much remaining to be done, and Britons should not shirk from completing the job. Britain is best served by a democratic and economically open Europe, which is one reason that staying in the EU is in our own interests.

    All but three of those were former Iron Curtain countries and the EU had sweet FA to do with freeing them from that yoke.

    Are you claiming that the newly liberated eastern bloc countries were so poorly led they were incapable of becoming functioning democracies without the EU?
    I'm going to put my @Socrates hat on here: those ex Communist countries that joined the EU and looked West have done a lot better than those who stuck with Russia. Doesn't mean it couldn't have happened with some kind of EFTA/EEA, but it's hard to claim that EU membership has been a disaster for the Baltics (for example).
    I have not claimed it was a disaster. I have just said that Dr Fox's claims that it was the EU that turned them from dictatorships into well functioning democracies is utter bollocks.
    I was in Latvia about 18 months ago, just a few weeks before they joined the Euro, and I asked my taxi driver:

    "You're about to join the Euro, are you mad?" (or some such)
    and he replied
    "If your neighbour was Russia, you'd want to be as much a part of Europe as possible."

    It was interesting how different their perspective was. And I think we all need to realise that our choices, as an island on the far West of Europe, are very different to those of a tiny country with an aggressive next door neighbour.
    I would suggest NATO membership gives far more security. Norway shares a land border and a large swathe of oil rich disputed ocean with Russia but certainly doesn't feel it needs to be in the EU.
    And that is why they joined NATO. But I can certainly understand why in Latvia support for EU and support for the Euro is incredibly high.
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @cjharris85: .@Plaid_Cymru beats Labour to GAIN seat in Neath constituency tonight, and also win seat in Bangor! Huge congratulations. #Plaid16
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    EPGEPG Posts: 6,013

    EPG said:

    Wanderer said:

    twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/695384763335446528

    I think even an even(ish) split is bad for Remain at this point. The last couple of days have been Remain's moment, it's unveiling of the goods. If it's not ahead now it's, hmm, tricky.
    Remain will not be running on Cam's pieces of paper but on fear of losing big employers from the South East and some urban centres elsewhere
    A stupid strategy given that it is so easy to point out how many big employers claimed they would leave the UK if we didn't join the Euro. Of course they didn't and that sort of crying wolf is very easy to highlight.
    All they have is scaremongering, I find it staggering they accuse the Out campaign of that when there is not one single cohesive argument for staying in.
    The Leave side is also built on scaremongering, 30 years of panic about bananas and Poles
    Fact is that fear is the best electoral tactic after the psychological scars of nearly a decade of economic stagnation - the end of stable employment - social fragmentation and herding into politically homogenous internet communities whipping up fear of the other side - positivity being seen as just more broken promises - an aging population more worried about their childrens' future and with fears about health and mortality ever more important among the psyche of the electorate - yes fear is the tonic.
    That's why everyone scaremongers nowadays
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited February 2016
    O/T:

    Some fine music on TOTP from 5th March 1981, including Once in a Lifetime by Talking Heads and Planet Earth by Duran Duran:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/live/bbcfour
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    rcs1000 said:

    @Perdix

    The point about social protection is that the legislation is from the EU, not from Westminster. We could have passed those laws but did not. Leave puts them under threat.

    Well within my lifetime Spain, Portugal, Greece, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, Croatia, Slovenia, the Czech republic, Slovakia, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia were all dictatorships and many very poorly governed. EU membership was a major driver for each of these to develop democratic and economically modern economies. We should be proud of our part in bringing these countries out of their darkness and backwardness. There is clearly much remaining to be done, and Britons should not shirk from completing the job. Britain is best served by a democratic and economically open Europe, which is one reason that staying in the EU is in our own interests.

    All but three of those were former Iron Curtain countries and the EU had sweet FA to do with freeing them from that yoke.

    Are you claiming that the newly liberated eastern bloc countries were so poorly led they were incapable of becoming functioning democracies without the EU?
    I'm going to put my @Socrates hat on here: those ex Communist countries that joined the EU and looked West have done a lot better than those who stuck with Russia. Doesn't mean it couldn't have happened with some kind of EFTA/EEA, but it's hard to claim that EU membership has been a disaster for the Baltics (for example).
    An EU application requires all sorts of democratic, human rights, and economic progress. It is a major carrot for these countries.

    Imperfect they may be, but these are much better places for the existence of the EU.

    An EU application also requires financial stability, as the Greeks had to prove when they joined.
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    TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Britain Elects @britainelects
    Bottisham (East Cambridgeshire) result:
    CON: 43.6% (-8.2)
    LDEM: 41.7% (+9.8)
    LAB: 10.2% (-6.1)
    UKIP: 4.5% (+4.5)
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    flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903
    edited February 2016
    Wanderer said:

    EPG said:

    Wanderer said:

    twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/695384763335446528

    I think even an even(ish) split is bad for Remain at this point. The last couple of days have been Remain's moment, it's unveiling of the goods. If it's not ahead now it's, hmm, tricky.
    Remain will not be running on Cam's pieces of paper but on fear of losing big employers from the South East and some urban centres elsewhere
    Oh, Remain has some cards in its hand for sure. Still, it's been a bad two days for it. (I personally support Remain fwiw so I'm not talking up my own fancy, nor book, as I haven't bet yet.)
    The trend is to belittle the government by the press -its self interest from them to see weak government - and to diminish Cameron from his opponents - simple bitterness. The issue of Europe is just the McGuffin.

    There is a referendum, a vote.
    Vote for gawds sake. Cut the crap, just vote.
    It won't make much difference - you are a fool if you think so. Being in the EEA will be pretty much the same - except we will have to start negotiating all over again.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,927
    glw said:

    Sean_F said:

    If this poll is correct, I'd say that about 20% of Conservatives have really had their confidence in the government's ability to negotiate with the EU undermined.

    It should be a lot higher than 20%. I can't see how anyone could think that the government have done well.
    To clarify, 40% or so had little or confidence to begin with.

    The killer finding is the 23% who think the PM has done worse than they expected.
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    Wanderer said:

    EPG said:

    Wanderer said:

    twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/695384763335446528

    I think even an even(ish) split is bad for Remain at this point. The last couple of days have been Remain's moment, it's unveiling of the goods. If it's not ahead now it's, hmm, tricky.
    Remain will not be running on Cam's pieces of paper but on fear of losing big employers from the South East and some urban centres elsewhere
    Oh, Remain has some cards in its hand for sure. Still, it's been a bad two days for it. (I personally support Remain fwiw so I'm not talking up my own fancy, nor book, as I haven't bet yet.)
    The trend is to belittle the government by the press -its self interest from them top see weak government - and to diminish Cameron from his opponents - simple bitterness. The issue of Europe is just the McGuffin.

    There is a referendum, a vote.
    Vote for gawds sake. Cut the crap, just vote.
    It won't make much difference - you are a fool if you think so. Being in the EEA will be pretty much the same - except we will have to start negotiating all over again.
    LOL. The stuck Cameroon record playing yet again.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548


    Factual though.

    I'm in a mood tonight, so you're all going to feel my acidic tongue tonight.

    Came home to a letter saying I'm at real risk of losing my sight.

    Hell, that's rough. Get the best medical advice you can afford.

    I wish Mr Eagles well - it must be very worrying, but why do you think he needs to pay for advice about his treatment?
    My wife has had excellent treatment for her eyes, on the NHS. She also had excellent treatment for her thyroid condition. By all means ask for second opinions or enquire about the available consultants and leading specialists. But why suggest pay.
    I would agree, and the Royal Hallamshire is an excellent hospital, and the new diabetes treatments are financially well supported by the NHS. Indeed the funding and delivery of diabetes treatments by the NHS is part of the reason for its financial predicament.
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    Thank you everyone for the kind words tonight.

    Good night everybody.
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,126

    I would suggest NATO membership gives far more security. Norway shares a land border and a large swathe of oil rich disputed ocean with Russia but certainly doesn't feel it needs to be in the EU.

    Realpolitk trumps alliances, no matter how successful they have been in the past. There's no doubt that being part of the EU and the Eurozone makes any aggression against those countries feel much more like an aggression against the whole.

    If Russia contrives a situation in which they come into open conflict with Turkey, will NATO really fall into line behind them? It's very doubtful.
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    CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,221

    Thank you everyone for the kind words tonight.

    Good night everybody.

    TSE: Just seen the news. Really sorry. Best of luck and hope you get the best medical help you need.


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    viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,936

    @Perdix

    The point about social protection is that the legislation is from the EU, not from Westminster. We could have passed those laws but did not. Leave puts them under threat.

    Well within my lifetime Spain, Portugal, Greece, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, Croatia, Slovenia, the Czech republic, Slovakia, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia were all dictatorships and many very poorly governed. EU membership was a major driver for each of these to develop democratic and economically modern economies. We should be proud of our part in bringing these countries out of their darkness and backwardness. There is clearly much remaining to be done, and Britons should not shirk from completing the job. Britain is best served by a democratic and economically open Europe, which is one reason that staying in the EU is in our own interests.

    All but three of those were former Iron Curtain countries and the EU had sweet FA to do with freeing them from that yoke.

    Are you claiming that the newly liberated eastern bloc countries were so poorly led they were incapable of becoming functioning democracies without the EU?
    It's not a question of "poorly led", it's a question of giving them a template to follow. From little things like the existence[1] of political parties to big things like electoral law and governments allowing a peaceful handover if they lose, letting them into the EU (and the reforms they had to implement to get in) aided their transition to democracy.

    The Eastern Europeans aren't stupid, but a functioning liberal democracy requires an institutional memory that they just didn't have. Bringing them into the Western sphere was an enormous achievement, and it could very easily have gone the other way. If it helps, you can give the credit to the Western nations collectively instead of the EU as an entity

    [1] When the Wall fell, the concept of political parties was regarded with some suspicion. The only ones allowed had been the Communist Party and some variants (one-party state, remember?). I think that's why to this day, lists are more popular.

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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    rcs1000 said:

    @Perdix

    The point about social protection is that the legislation is from the EU, not from Westminster. We could have passed those laws but did not. Leave puts them under threat.

    Well within my lifetime Spain, Portugal, Greece, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, Croatia, Slovenia, the Czech republic, Slovakia, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia were all dictatorships and many very poorly governed. EU membership was a major driver for each of these to develop democratic and economically modern economies. We should be proud of our part in bringing these countries out of their darkness and backwardness. There is clearly much remaining to be done, and Britons should not shirk from completing the job. Britain is best served by a democratic and economically open Europe, which is one reason that staying in the EU is in our own interests.

    All but three of those were former Iron Curtain countries and the EU had sweet FA to do with freeing them from that yoke.

    Are you claiming that the newly liberated eastern bloc countries were so poorly led they were incapable of becoming functioning democracies without the EU?
    I'm going to put my @Socrates hat on here: those ex Communist countries that joined the EU and looked West have done a lot better than those who stuck with Russia. Doesn't mean it couldn't have happened with some kind of EFTA/EEA, but it's hard to claim that EU membership has been a disaster for the Baltics (for example).
    An EU application requires all sorts of democratic, human rights, and economic progress. It is a major carrot for these countries.

    Imperfect they may be, but these are much better places for the existence of the EU.

    An EU application also requires financial stability, as the Greeks had to prove when they joined.
    Greece joined the EU in 1981 as I recall, well before its recent problems.

    If you spend far more money than you raise in taxes over a prolonged period then the economy goes tits up, whether in or out of the EU or Euro. Its not rocket science!
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    rcs1000 said:

    I was in Latvia about 18 months ago, just a few weeks before they joined the Euro, and I asked my taxi driver:

    "You're about to join the Euro, are you mad?" (or some such)
    and he replied
    "If your neighbour was Russia, you'd want to be as much a part of Europe as possible."

    It was interesting how different their perspective was. And I think we all need to realise that our choices, as an island on the far West of Europe, are very different to those of a tiny country with an aggressive next door neighbour.

    Not just the small countries on the eastern fringe. The Balkans, the Czech Republic, Austria, Hungary, Poland, the Netherlands, even Italy and Spain: all of these countries are either relatively new nation-states which have for centuries been subject to various tyrannies from outside, or have been outside the European mainstream for most of the post-war period. Their perspective is completely different from ours. And the same is true, for different reasons, for France and Germany.
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    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    edited February 2016

    rcs1000 said:

    @Perdix

    The point about social protection is that the legislation is from the EU, not from Westminster. We could have passed those laws but did not. Leave puts them under threat.

    Well within my lifetime Spain, Portugal, Greece, Bulgaria, Romania, Hungary, Croatia, Slovenia, the Czech republic, Slovakia, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia were all dictatorships and many very poorly governed. EU membership was a major driver for each of these to develop democratic and economically modern economies. We should be proud of our part in bringing these countries out of their darkness and backwardness. There is clearly much remaining to be done, and Britons should not shirk from completing the job. Britain is best served by a democratic and economically open Europe, which is one reason that staying in the EU is in our own interests.

    All but three of those were former Iron Curtain countries and the EU had sweet FA to do with freeing them from that yoke.

    Are you claiming that the newly liberated eastern bloc countries were so poorly led they were incapable of becoming functioning democracies without the EU?
    I'm going to put my @Socrates hat on here: those ex Communist countries that joined the EU and looked West have done a lot better than those who stuck with Russia. Doesn't mean it couldn't have happened with some kind of EFTA/EEA, but it's hard to claim that EU membership has been a disaster for the Baltics (for example).
    An EU application requires all sorts of democratic, human rights, and economic progress. It is a major carrot for these countries.

    Imperfect they may be, but these are much better places for the existence of the EU.

    The EU was very flexible when it came to some of the newer members, i.e. turning a blind eye to high levels of corruption.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 35,927

    Thank you everyone for the kind words tonight.

    Good night everybody.

    Good luck.
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