politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If not Boris then WHO is going to lead of the out campaign?

Judging by what I read today could it be Noel Edmonds?

Huzzah for the Moggster!

He's a bit modern, but nobody's perfect.

It can only be Dan Hannan.
DD and Liam have failed too often, are poor public speakers and are too associated with the Tory brand.
Dan is fresh, thinks on his feet and can handle and present a brief with wit and passion. He is also an experienced politician without being recognisable as an Evil Tory by most voters.
I say this as a current Remainer and someone who would like to see Dan Hannan in the HoC asap.

taffys said:

Judging by what I read today could it be Noel Edmonds?

No Deal

"This would make the battle an Eton versus Eton confrontation given both went to the same school near Slough."

No it wouldn't. Cameron will not be leading the Remain campaign. He'll be recommending people to vote Remain, which is a completely different thing.

Point of pedantry, isn't Eton a school near Windsor?

I suspect Remain are going to be left with David Davis.

I know, can anyone imagine David Davis opposing David Cameron?

Philip_Thompson said:

The problem with Dan Hannan is outside political obsessives most people would say "who?"

He's the bloke who has the eccentric views on the NHS.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2009/aug/14/health-nhs

Philip_Thompson said:

The problem with Dan Hannan is outside political obsessives most people would say "who?"

That's the problem with most conceivable candidates to lead Leave. The exceptions are largely "Oh Christ, not HIM" candidates.

Of the names mentioned, Theresa May would be ideal for the reason @AlastairMeeks gives, but I rather suspect she won't play ball. Dan Hannan is a great guy but I think his rather cerebral approach will leave most voters scratching their heads. Jacob Rees-Mogg is a bit of a specialist taste. Farage is too Marmitesque. DD and Liam Fox would put off a lot of people, most especially those in the uncommitted centre who are the ones the Leave campaign needs to attract.

Owen Paterson is articulate and would be a possible choice, but again he's rather too far to the Right to be the ideal leader of a cross-party campaign. Kate Hoey would good, but she's not that well known. Still, of those mooted I think she'd be the best choice - remembering that the campaign doesn't need to attract the already-committed, it needs to attract floaters and reassure doubters.

Pong said:

Boris has calculated leave don't have much of a chance.

I did point out leave was value @ 1.6 - it's now 1.46 & still value.

Should be ~1.2

Plus being offered the job of Foreign Secretary swayed him too.

I think he realised there will only be one outcome if the referendum boils down to Cameron promising economic stability with Remain.

alex. said:

If Dan Hannan was as good as his supporters claim, he wouldn't have spent his entire political career in the European Parliament.

I like Dan Hannan, he's from Peru, just like Paddington.

Douglas Carswell is also a possibility.

"An ally of Jeremy Corbyn could be removed from a key party post within days as Labour moderates mount a fightback.

Labour MPs are planning to hold a vote on Monday that would force Steve Rotheram, Mr Corbyn’s parliamentary aide, to resign from the party’s national executive committee. Two of Mr Corbyn’s leading critics within the party are being lined up to replace him."

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4663797.ece

I think the bigger issue is which of the Leave sides is designated as the official Leave campaign.

If it is Leave.EU the front man of the campaign is going to be Nigel Farage.

You can see why the electoral commission might designated Leave.EU as the official campaign, they've been at it longer than Vote Leave.

Plus, Vote Leave have engaged in some particularly childish antics cf Dave at the CBI

Richard_Nabavi said:

"This would make the battle an Eton versus Eton confrontation given both went to the same school near Slough."

No it wouldn't. Cameron will not be leading the Remain campaign. He'll be recommending people to vote Remain, which is a completely different thing.

A leading figure of Remain then.

FPT

Casino_Royale said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Casino_Royale said:

For example, by virtue of the excellent video on population you linked to several days ago, by 2100 it is likely that global human population will be 11 billion+ (plateau point) with 5 billion in Asia and 4 billion in Africa, and only 1 billion in Europe and the Americas.

Really?

Population in Europe is currently 0.742 billion.
Population in the Americas is currently 0.953 billion.
Population in Africa is currently 1.111 billion

Do you mean 1 billion each (which means virtually no growth in the Americas) or are you talking about a catastrophic population decline of nearly 50% if its 1 billion between them?

A quadrupling of the population in Africa seems unlikely to me.

Yes, sorry. 1bn in Europe and another 1bn in the Americas.

Robert Smithson posted a video link to the lecture. It forecast Africa expanding from 1bn to 4bn and Asia from 4bn - 5bn.

We are already at c.7bn today.

11 billion peak from ~7bn globally sounds about right.

The notion all that growth will occur in Africa I am very skeptical about. For one thing if the population in Africa quadruples over the next 85 years then I would expect migration flows that would make the last 12 months look incredibly isolationist.

Richard_Nabavi said:

Of the names mentioned, Theresa May would be ideal for the reason @AlastairMeeks gives, but I rather suspect she won't play ball. Dan Hannan is a great guy but I think his rather cerebral approach will leave most voters scratching their heads. Jacob Rees-Mogg is a bit of a specialist taste. Farage is too Marmitesque. DD and Liam Fox would put off a lot of people, most especially those in the uncommitted centre who are the ones the Leave campaign needs to attract.

Owen Paterson is articulate and would be a possible choice, but again he's rather too far to the Right to be the ideal leader of a cross-party campaign. Kate Hoey would good, but she's not that well known. Still, of those mooted I think she'd be the best choice - remembering that the campaign doesn't need to attract the already-committed, it needs to attract floaters and reassure doubters.

I think Theresa May will go as far as she possibly can to dogwhistle Leave without actually declaring for it.

If she did declare for Leave and fight that from within cabinet that'd be a huge deal, because normally someone of her seniority and standing would have to resign.

But she doesn't lack guts and Cameron did allow her to make that clear and unambiguous conference speech last October, so who knows. If she does, I expect the next Tory leader betting to move strongly in her favour.

I'd lay Boris now.

According to this report, it's not looking good for those in the Labour Party who want to get rid of Corbyn before the next election:

""Revealed: how Jeremy Corbyn has reshaped the Labour party
Leader’s hopes of remoulding the party boosted as Guardian survey shows surge in members, huge support and shift to the left"

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jan/13/revealed-how-jeremy-corbyn-has-reshaped-the-labour-party

It needs to be someone the general public will know well, otherwise there will be all the known politicians on one side and a bunch of unknowns (plus Farage) on the other.
David Davis maybe, or Carswell, with support from Field and Hoey to make a cross-party campaign.

Both sides need to remember that they are trying to attract the floating voter, not the already committed, so some of the more vocal supporters over the years are probably not going to be the best choice for the role.

Philip_Thompson said:

Casino_Royale said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Leave need someone sensible and dull to reassure the floating voters that they aren't all mad and/or xenophobes. Theresa May would be the perfect choice if she can be persuaded. Jacob Rees-Mogg would not.

Boris previously said he would wait until the outcome of the negotiation before deciding. Now he has decided well before the deal has even been finalised.

Why?

Boris is only interested in Boris, so I can only conclude he's been offered a big job if he stays shtum. This destroys what's left of his USP for Tory leader with the MPs/members, so I think it must have been a cabinet job to convince him.

My money is that either Cameron has offered him one in case a big name resigns from cabinet (I can only imagine it's May, given Hammond has declared for Remain) or Osborne has promised him Chancellor if he agrees to be his running mate.

Or he's seen enough in the negotiations to make a judgement - as indeed many on the other side have already said.

No, anyone making that assessment is guessing. If so, why not wait until the ink is dry? What does he gain from declaring now? It will also damage his standing with the members for next Tory leader.

This is Boris: he would have wanted something tangible and bankable.

Pulpstar said:

Donald Trump to lead the out campaign ?

Is this the Donald Trump Out (of Scotland) Campaign?

Casino_Royale said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Leave need someone sensible and dull to reassure the floating voters that they aren't all mad and/or xenophobes. Theresa May would be the perfect choice if she can be persuaded. Jacob Rees-Mogg would not.

Boris previously said he would wait until the outcome of the negotiation before deciding. Now he has decided well before the deal has even been finalised.

Why?

Boris is only interested in Boris, so I can only conclude he's been offered a big job if he stays shtum. This destroys what's left of his USP for Tory leader with the MPs/members, so I think it must have been a cabinet job to convince him.

My money is that either Cameron has offered him one in case a big name resigns from cabinet (I can only imagine it's May, given Hammond has declared for Remain) or Osborne has promised him Chancellor if he agrees to be his running mate.

Boris is no loss.

Casino_Royale said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Casino_Royale said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Leave need someone sensible and dull to reassure the floating voters that they aren't all mad and/or xenophobes. Theresa May would be the perfect choice if she can be persuaded. Jacob Rees-Mogg would not.

Boris previously said he would wait until the outcome of the negotiation before deciding. Now he has decided well before the deal has even been finalised.

Why?

Boris is only interested in Boris, so I can only conclude he's been offered a big job if he stays shtum. This destroys what's left of his USP for Tory leader with the MPs/members, so I think it must have been a cabinet job to convince him.

My money is that either Cameron has offered him one in case a big name resigns from cabinet (I can only imagine it's May, given Hammond has declared for Remain) or Osborne has promised him Chancellor if he agrees to be his running mate.

Or he's seen enough in the negotiations to make a judgement - as indeed many on the other side have already said.

No, anyone making that assessment is guessing. If so, why not wait until the ink is dry? What does he gain from declaring now? It will also damage his standing with the members for next Tory leader.

This is Boris: he would have wanted something tangible and bankable.

Sometimes its simply good to stop speculation before it runs away from you.

Look how damaged Corbyn got from unfettered speculation about sacking Benn only for him not to. Maybe Boris decided the risks of appearing Out if he was not leaning that way were becoming too much.

Rees-Mogg would be an really excellent choice. Not only would he be a strong advocate for the Leave campaign, but he'd also help to keep the debate unheated.

Omnium said:

Rees-Mogg would be an really excellent choice. Not only would he be a strong advocate for the Leave campaign, but he'd also help to keep the debate unheated.

Rees-Mogg and Hoey at the head of the Leave campaign would make things very difficult for Remain IMO.

HYUFD said:

richardDodd said:

Population growth in Africa..they can make em..but they cant feed em....no growth..just a lot of dead kids

Africa's growth rate is about 5%, not great but rather better than the Eurozone
http://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2014/jan/20/africa-economic-growth-failing-development-jobs

Nigeria is the biggest economy and it relies heavily on oil revenues.

AndyJS said:

HYUFD said:

richardDodd said:

Population growth in Africa..they can make em..but they cant feed em....no growth..just a lot of dead kids

Africa's growth rate is about 5%, not great but rather better than the Eurozone
http://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2014/jan/20/africa-economic-growth-failing-development-jobs

Nigeria is the biggest economy and it relies heavily on oil revenues.

Most of the big African countries are commodity exporters: Nigeria, South Africa, Egypt, Angola, etc

HYUFD said:

richardDodd said:

Population growth in Africa..they can make em..but they cant feed em....no growth..just a lot of dead kids

Africa's growth rate is about 5%, not great but rather better than the Eurozone
http://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2014/jan/20/africa-economic-growth-failing-development-jobs

That's before the fall in commodity prices.

Evening all.

Jacob Rees-Mogg? – Lord I hope not, a good speaker he may be, but a little odd looking.

What the leave side need is someone like Dan Hannan who knows the subject inside out, is articulate, presentable and unfailingly courteous. – Perhaps they should ask Dan where such a man can be found….

Philip_Thompson said:

Casino_Royale said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Casino_Royale said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Leave need someone sensible and dull to reassure the floating voters that they aren't all mad and/or xenophobes. Theresa May would be the perfect choice if she can be persuaded. Jacob Rees-Mogg would not.

Boris previously said he would wait until the outcome of the negotiation before deciding. Now he has decided well before the deal has even been finalised.

Why?

Boris is only interested in Boris, so I can only conclude he's been offered a big job if he stays shtum. This destroys what's left of his USP for Tory leader with the MPs/members, so I think it must have been a cabinet job to convince him.

My money is that either Cameron has offered him one in case a big name resigns from cabinet (I can only imagine it's May, given Hammond has declared for Remain) or Osborne has promised him Chancellor if he agrees to be his running mate.

Or he's seen enough in the negotiations to make a judgement - as indeed many on the other side have already said.

No, anyone making that assessment is guessing. If so, why not wait until the ink is dry? What does he gain from declaring now? It will also damage his standing with the members for next Tory leader.

This is Boris: he would have wanted something tangible and bankable.

Sometimes its simply good to stop speculation before it runs away from you.

Look how damaged Corbyn got from unfettered speculation about sacking Benn only for him not to. Maybe Boris decided the risks of appearing Out if he was not leaning that way were becoming too much.

Fair enough if that's your view. You might be right. We can't be certain of anything.

However, from what I know of Boris, my money is that I'm closer to the mark.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Mortimer said:

Just reading that Guardian article has made me think - there could be further net gains made by Tories in seats where Labour are 3rd or lower. If Bath Labour Party is seeing a boost, there is every chance that previous LD supporters or wavering tacticals would vote Labour on principle.

2020 is going to be fun.

Bath is already a Tory held seat

Yeah, but it's going double Tory in 2020!

TheScreamingEagles said:

Mortimer said:

Just reading that Guardian article has made me think - there could be further net gains made by Tories in seats where Labour are 3rd or lower. If Bath Labour Party is seeing a boost, there is every chance that previous LD supporters or wavering tacticals would vote Labour on principle.

2020 is going to be fun.

Bath is already a Tory held seat

I know that...

I meant vote share net gains.

I.e. The number of marginals decrease...

Bodes well for 2025.

So now all we need is for the wider world to see the merits of Mike's suggestion, and we'll actually have a really great political debate. Moreover the more serious the debate, then to my mind the more interesting the betting opportunities. I don't think that's a general rule (cf US Presidency), but in this case I think it's right.

Casino_Royale said:

No, anyone making that assessment is guessing. If so, why not wait until the ink is dry? What does he gain from declaring now? It will also damage his standing with the members for next Tory leader.

I've never bought into the idea that Boris is a BOOer, in fact I don't think he differs from Cameron on anything very much (other than the merits of Boris Johnson as a future PM!). It's speculation of course, but my guess is that he is declaring now because it would damage his chances more to be hyped up as prominent Leaver, and then to disappoint the Leave camp in the Conservative Party nearer the time. His calculation is more likely to be that Remain will win, he's on balance likely to favour Remain anyway, so he'll want to position himself as a serious candidate for the post-Cameron, post-referendum world.

As it happens, I don't particularly rate his chances, but he could get a juicy Cabinet post. I expect he'd rather fancy Foreign Sec.

This is worth reading to understand what might be going on:

http://www.spectator.co.uk/2015/10/is-theresa-may-gearing-up-to-lead-the-eu-no-campaign/

foxinsoxuk said:

rcs1000 said:

AndyJS said:

HYUFD said:

richardDodd said:

Population growth in Africa..they can make em..but they cant feed em....no growth..just a lot of dead kids

Africa's growth rate is about 5%, not great but rather better than the Eurozone
http://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2014/jan/20/africa-economic-growth-failing-development-jobs

Nigeria is the biggest economy and it relies heavily on oil revenues.

Most of the big African countries are commodity exporters: Nigeria, South Africa, Egypt, Angola, etc

Sure the African economies are fairly heavily commodity driven, but there are other signs of progress in Africa. There is an expanding middle class and signs of progress elsewhere in the economies. The Christian majority states are increasingly democratic and have falling fertility rates. I am quite positive about the future of Sub-Saharan africa.

I actually agree with much of that. I have a friend who runs a Frontier Markets fund, and he's invested in consumer companies in places that are beyond emerging markets: Bangladesh, Madagascar and the like. It's astonishing to see the progress in some of this places. Non resource exporting Africa is showing some incredible progress.

Nevertheless, Nigeria is one of the world's largest oil exporters, and the price of oil has collapsed 75% in the past 18 months. So, you would expect the growth rate for the continent as a whole to stumble.

The LEAVERs need someone from a BME background, to outflank any possible accusations of racism and/or bigotry.

Someone who has a deep-seated love and appreciation of the Great British Railway network.

Someone who thinks, unequivocally, that English is far and away the best language in the world.

Casino_Royale said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Casino_Royale said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Casino_Royale said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Leave need someone sensible and dull to reassure the floating voters that they aren't all mad and/or xenophobes. Theresa May would be the perfect choice if she can be persuaded. Jacob Rees-Mogg would not.

Boris previously said he would wait until the outcome of the negotiation before deciding. Now he has decided well before the deal has even been finalised.

Why?

Boris is only interested in Boris, so I can only conclude he's been offered a big job if he stays shtum. This destroys what's left of his USP for Tory leader with the MPs/members, so I think it must have been a cabinet job to convince him.

My money is that either Cameron has offered him one in case a big name resigns from cabinet (I can only imagine it's May, given Hammond has declared for Remain) or Osborne has promised him Chancellor if he agrees to be his running mate.

Or he's seen enough in the negotiations to make a judgement - as indeed many on the other side have already said.

No, anyone making that assessment is guessing. If so, why not wait until the ink is dry? What does he gain from declaring now? It will also damage his standing with the members for next Tory leader.

This is Boris: he would have wanted something tangible and bankable.

Sometimes its simply good to stop speculation before it runs away from you.

Look how damaged Corbyn got from unfettered speculation about sacking Benn only for him not to. Maybe Boris decided the risks of appearing Out if he was not leaning that way were becoming too much.

Fair enough if that's your view. You might be right. We can't be certain of anything.

However, from what I know of Boris, my money is that I'm closer to the mark.

There's also the issue that Boris was very pro-EU when he was hanging around the City five years ago. Which is the real Boris? Eurosceptic or Euro-enthusiast?

Or does he just have a tendency to make whatever noises are most likely to help him edge further up the greasy poll?

On topic, it won't be JRM for any number of reasons. It will either be Farage or a member of the cabinet. There isn't anyone else of sufficient authority to lead them. A senior and respected ex-cabinet minister could in theory but in practice, who?

AlastairMeeks said:

Casino_Royale said:

This is worth reading to understand what might be going on:

http://www.spectator.co.uk/2015/10/is-theresa-may-gearing-up-to-lead-the-eu-no-campaign/

I've expected for some time that Boris Johnson will campaign for Remain and Theresa May will campaign for Leave.

She is ambitious enough. And I think she has the guts to stand down from the cabinet - of her own volition - so that she can give it her full attention.

But I'm not sure she's a winner.

TheScreamingEagles said:

Point of pedantry, isn't Eton a school near Windsor?

The postal address is Windsor, the post code Slough. Had to amend an Act of Parliament...

I cannot see why Spurs are odds on to win tonight. Our reserves drew on Sunday after a dodgy Spurs penalty and now we are putting out the first team. 4.75 on a Leicester win seems rather long, particularly with Vardy fit again.

Pong said:

Boris has calculated leave don't have much of a chance.

I did point out leave was value @ 1.6 - it's now 1.46 & still value.

Should be ~1.2

I strongly believe a single person played a large part in bringing those odds down.

rcs1000 said:

AlastairMeeks said:

Casino_Royale said:

This is worth reading to understand what might be going on:

http://www.spectator.co.uk/2015/10/is-theresa-may-gearing-up-to-lead-the-eu-no-campaign/

I've expected for some time that Boris Johnson will campaign for Remain and Theresa May will campaign for Leave.

She is ambitious enough. And I think she has the guts to stand down from the cabinet - of her own volition - so that she can give it her full attention.

But I'm not sure she's a winner.

It's her best shot at the top spot, even if it is odds against.

Put another way, if she doesn't do this, she isn't all that fussed about becoming Prime Minister or Conservative party leader and bets should be placed accordingly.

Could I take out a 30 second slot on ITV and air a Euro referendum advert?

And why I never bet on cricket anymore...

South African cricket braced for huge match-fixing scandal after evidence of corruption in Ram Slam T20

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/cricket/international/southafrica/12097971/South-African-cricket-braced-for-huge-match-fixing-scandal-after-evidence-of-corruption-in-Ram-Slam-T20.html

As a betting man, I can't believe Mike would put money on JMR leading the Outers. JMR would kill the campaign stone dead among the 95% of the country who can't relate to him.