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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If not Boris then WHO is going to lead of the out campaign?
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If not Boris then WHO is going to lead of the out campaign?
The EU referendum is getting closer and last week’s announcement by David Cameron that ministers could campaign for LEAVE might have been expected to open the flood gates of senior Tories announcing that they would be campaigning against.
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He's a bit modern, but nobody's perfect.
"The news that the Swedish authorities covered up widespread sexual assaults by immigrant gangs on teenage girls at a Stockholm music festival, and possibly other incidents too, is immensely damaging for race relations in Sweden because it conforms so precisely to two stereotypes.
The first, widely believed in nationalist circles, is that immigrants to Sweden are responsible for the huge rise in reported rapes in recent years. The second, more true, and much more widely believed, is that you cannot trust respectable Swedish opinion to be honest about the bad effects of immigration."
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jan/13/sex-assaults-sweden-stockholm-music-festival
DD and Liam have failed too often, are poor public speakers and are too associated with the Tory brand.
Dan is fresh, thinks on his feet and can handle and present a brief with wit and passion. He is also an experienced politician without being recognisable as an Evil Tory by most voters.
I say this as a current Remainer and someone who would like to see Dan Hannan in the HoC asap.
Is that one crime or two?
1. Did not publicise the prosecutions?
Or
2. Did not publicise the incidents and never prosecuted anybody?
No it wouldn't. Cameron will not be leading the Remain campaign. He'll be recommending people to vote Remain, which is a completely different thing.
Michael Gove is another, but I suspect he's very loyal to Dave.
I know, can anyone imagine David Davis opposing David Cameron?
I did point out leave was value @ 1.6 - it's now 1.46 & still value.
Should be ~1.2
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2009/aug/14/health-nhs
Owen Paterson is articulate and would be a possible choice, but again he's rather too far to the Right to be the ideal leader of a cross-party campaign. Kate Hoey would good, but she's not that well known. Still, of those mooted I think she'd be the best choice - remembering that the campaign doesn't need to attract the already-committed, it needs to attract floaters and reassure doubters.
Although Jacob Rees-Mogg is a bit of a mouthful. JRM should be preferrred as with JFK, MLK, RFK or FDR.
I think he realised there will only be one outcome if the referendum boils down to Cameron promising economic stability with Remain.
What a wonderful conclusion.
The referendum will be won and lost on the playing fields of Eton.
Labour MPs are planning to hold a vote on Monday that would force Steve Rotheram, Mr Corbyn’s parliamentary aide, to resign from the party’s national executive committee. Two of Mr Corbyn’s leading critics within the party are being lined up to replace him."
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4663797.ece
If it is Leave.EU the front man of the campaign is going to be Nigel Farage.
You can see why the electoral commission might designated Leave.EU as the official campaign, they've been at it longer than Vote Leave.
Plus, Vote Leave have engaged in some particularly childish antics cf Dave at the CBI
http://news.stv.tv/scotland/1338908-stephen-daisley-on-the-death-of-former-north-east-mp-sir-albert-mcquarrie/
Why?
Boris is only interested in Boris, so I can only conclude he's been offered a big job if he stays shtum. This destroys what's left of his USP for Tory leader with the MPs/members, so I think it must have been a cabinet job to convince him.
My money is that either Cameron has offered him one in case a big name resigns from cabinet (I can only imagine it's May, given Hammond has declared for Remain) or Osborne has promised him Chancellor if he agrees to be his running mate.
The notion all that growth will occur in Africa I am very skeptical about. For one thing if the population in Africa quadruples over the next 85 years then I would expect migration flows that would make the last 12 months look incredibly isolationist.
If she did declare for Leave and fight that from within cabinet that'd be a huge deal, because normally someone of her seniority and standing would have to resign.
But she doesn't lack guts and Cameron did allow her to make that clear and unambiguous conference speech last October, so who knows. If she does, I expect the next Tory leader betting to move strongly in her favour.
I'd lay Boris now.
""Revealed: how Jeremy Corbyn has reshaped the Labour party
Leader’s hopes of remoulding the party boosted as Guardian survey shows surge in members, huge support and shift to the left"
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jan/13/revealed-how-jeremy-corbyn-has-reshaped-the-labour-party
David Davis maybe, or Carswell, with support from Field and Hoey to make a cross-party campaign.
Both sides need to remember that they are trying to attract the floating voter, not the already committed, so some of the more vocal supporters over the years are probably not going to be the best choice for the role.
This is Boris: he would have wanted something tangible and bankable.
http://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2014/jan/20/africa-economic-growth-failing-development-jobs
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/11986994/The-migrant-crisis-is-a-mere-gust-of-the-hurricane-that-will-soon-engulf-Europe.html
Look how damaged Corbyn got from unfettered speculation about sacking Benn only for him not to. Maybe Boris decided the risks of appearing Out if he was not leaning that way were becoming too much.
I'm not sure if he's the right man to attract the middle voter, although he is undoubtedly a great speaker and debater, he knows the arguments very well about the EU as an institution, rather than the vague notion of 'Europe' the pro-EU camp will use.
http://youtu.be/94lW6Y4tBXs
The one thing I like about him above all else, he's very loyal.
Whenever Dave does anything in this referendum that Dan doesn't approve of, he says something like 'I'm grateful to the PM for giving us this referendum' and it is up to us to win the argument, not whine
2020 is going to be fun.
Jacob Rees-Mogg? – Lord I hope not, a good speaker he may be, but a little odd looking.
What the leave side need is someone like Dan Hannan who knows the subject inside out, is articulate, presentable and unfailingly courteous. – Perhaps they should ask Dan where such a man can be found….
And we do (Well at least I do) want things to be difficult for the Remain campaign - we want them to make a strong positive case for staying in. I'm pretty much undecided, and I really would like to see the issues well discussed, and although I think Farage isn't all bad I don't think his style of politics is right for this. I think that applies to a lot of politicians.
However, from what I know of Boris, my money is that I'm closer to the mark.
Watch any interview with him and witness him charming the pants off the interviewer/co interviewees.
I meant vote share net gains.
I.e. The number of marginals decrease...
Bodes well for 2025.
He'll be very involved in the campaign, and will be completely positive about everything except the corrupt, wasteful and unaccountable EU. But someone better known should be leading it.
Off topic, do you dare watch Liverpool v Arsenal? I can't see last year's result repeating itself somehow!
As it happens, I don't particularly rate his chances, but he could get a juicy Cabinet post. I expect he'd rather fancy Foreign Sec.
http://www.spectator.co.uk/2015/10/is-theresa-may-gearing-up-to-lead-the-eu-no-campaign/
There will be 2-3 different Leave campaigns, all with their own leader.
Nevertheless, Nigeria is one of the world's largest oil exporters, and the price of oil has collapsed 75% in the past 18 months. So, you would expect the growth rate for the continent as a whole to stumble.
I would say the same for Remain too. Hard to see Corbyn, Sturgeon and Cameron speaking on the same platform either.
Someone who has a deep-seated love and appreciation of the Great British Railway network.
Someone who thinks, unequivocally, that English is far and away the best language in the world.
Or does he just have a tendency to make whatever noises are most likely to help him edge further up the greasy poll?
Corbyn was just absolutely shocking. He scored no points at all and Cameron just knocked him about at will. Ed was never close to being as bad as that. Surely he is not normally as bad as that. If I was a Labour MP with a majority of less than 10K I would be seriously concerned.
Osborne is virtually certain to make the final two. Only a big beast could beat him but the one chance Boris might have had (opportunistically) to beat him would be if he came out strongly for Leave.
But perhaps he knows that might not be the only one flying that flag and, if he does it anyway, he's unlikely to be offered a big cabinet job before Cameron retires further weakening his credibility and chances.
Too much of a gamble.
He's been offered something now for his support, and he's gone through the thinking above. Otherwise, he'd have waited just another 8 weeks to see the outcome of the renegotiation and then made his decision then.
But I'm not sure she's a winner.
Incidentally, a dyed-in-the-wool Leftie friend of mine asked who I thought would be the next Tory leader on Saturday night. No great reaction to any of the big names.. Until I mentioned May.
She wrinkled her nose in disgust and said she'd be just another Thatcher.
I don't think she understood that to me (and many other Tory members) that is not exactly off-putting.
Cameron...spare room subsidy doesn't apply to retired people...
Taxi for JJ...Where to...US Embassy for a CAGE protest.
Put another way, if she doesn't do this, she isn't all that fussed about becoming Prime Minister or Conservative party leader and bets should be placed accordingly.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/educationnews/12096928/Oxford-University-students-who-dont-like-Cecil-Rhodes-should-think-about-being-educated-elsewhere-says-chancellor.html
Kick right in the knackers...
South African cricket braced for huge match-fixing scandal after evidence of corruption in Ram Slam T20
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/cricket/international/southafrica/12097971/South-African-cricket-braced-for-huge-match-fixing-scandal-after-evidence-of-corruption-in-Ram-Slam-T20.html