We'll see now if prominent Conservative eurosceptics are willing to stand up and be counted, or whether their euroscepticism was always a sham (eg Philip Hammond).
I've expected for some time that Boris Johnson will campaign for Remain and Theresa May will campaign for Leave.
She is ambitious enough. And I think she has the guts to stand down from the cabinet - of her own volition - so that she can give it her full attention.
But I'm not sure she's a winner.
May will get the 80+ BOO'er votes and probably another 20-30 other MPs if she goes for Leave. She'd have a very good chance of winning the members vote too.
Incidentally, a dyed-in-the-wool Leftie friend of mine asked who I thought would be the next Tory leader on Saturday night. No great reaction to any of the big names.. Until I mentioned May.
She wrinkled her nose in disgust and said she'd be just another Thatcher.
I don't think she understood that to me (and many other Tory members) that is not exactly off-putting.
I meant, I don't think she can lead Out to victory. And, believe me, she's no Margaret Thatcher.
Oh, I see - yes, you might be right. But she's better than anyone else likely to do it and, in terms of credibility, has bags of it because she can say I've spent 6 years in Government trying every which way to solve immigration from within the EU; it can't be done and this is the only way.
In the current climate that could be very powerful.
I agree she isn't the same as Thatcher - and she's not a perfect choice - but she does have guts, and she's female.
If the Left think that's a devastating attack on her, then they're in for a shock: making comparisons to her will excite most Tory members more than a whole pack of Viagra.
I've expected for some time that Boris Johnson will campaign for Remain and Theresa May will campaign for Leave.
She is ambitious enough. And I think she has the guts to stand down from the cabinet - of her own volition - so that she can give it her full attention.
But I'm not sure she's a winner.
May will get the 80+ BOO'er votes and probably another 20-30 other MPs if she goes for Leave. She'd have a very good chance of winning the members vote too.
Incidentally, a dyed-in-the-wool Leftie friend of mine asked who I thought would be the next Tory leader on Saturday night. No great reaction to any of the big names.. Until I mentioned May.
She wrinkled her nose in disgust and said she'd be just another Thatcher.
I don't think she understood that to me (and many other Tory members) that is not exactly off-putting.
I meant, I don't think she can lead Out to victory. And, believe me, she's no Margaret Thatcher.
Agree on both counts.
Portillo would be the best if he wants the job (can't immediately see why he would). After that David Davis.
I've expected for some time that Boris Johnson will campaign for Remain and Theresa May will campaign for Leave.
She is ambitious enough. And I think she has the guts to stand down from the cabinet - of her own volition - so that she can give it her full attention.
But I'm not sure she's a winner.
It's her best shot at the top spot, even if it is odds against.
Put another way, if she doesn't do this, she isn't all that fussed about becoming Prime Minister or Conservative party leader and bets should be placed accordingly.
I agree entirely. My positions don't look good if she doesn't and Osborne starts to look good, unless Leave actually win.
What we can be certain of is that Osborne will know very well exactly everything we've been talking about on this thread and how much of a threat she is.
I've expected for some time that Boris Johnson will campaign for Remain and Theresa May will campaign for Leave.
She is ambitious enough. And I think she has the guts to stand down from the cabinet - of her own volition - so that she can give it her full attention.
But I'm not sure she's a winner.
May will get the 80+ BOO'er votes and probably another 20-30 other MPs if she goes for Leave. She'd have a very good chance of winning the members vote too.
Incidentally, a dyed-in-the-wool Leftie friend of mine asked who I thought would be the next Tory leader on Saturday night. No great reaction to any of the big names.. Until I mentioned May.
She wrinkled her nose in disgust and said she'd be just another Thatcher.
I don't think she understood that to me (and many other Tory members) that is not exactly off-putting.
I meant, I don't think she can lead Out to victory. And, believe me, she's no Margaret Thatcher.
Oh, I see - yes, you might be right. But she's better than anyone else likely to do it and, in terms of credibility, has bags of it because she can say I've spent 6 years in Government trying every which way to solve immigration from within the EU; it can't be done and this is the only way.
In the current climate that could be very powerful.
I agree she isn't the same as Thatcher - and she's not a perfect choice - but she does have guts, and she's female.
If the Left think that's a devastating attack on her, then they're in for a shock: making comparisons to her will excite most Tory members more than a whole pack of Viagra.
There's no way May could or would effectively attack David Cameron.
We'll see now if prominent Conservative eurosceptics are willing to stand up and be counted, or whether their euroscepticism was always a sham (eg Philip Hammond).
If none do, Remain win (however narrowly) and Osborne wins in 2019, I can't see any circumstances under which I would remain a Tory member.
We'll see now if prominent Conservative eurosceptics are willing to stand up and be counted, or whether their euroscepticism was always a sham (eg Philip Hammond).
If none do, Remain win (however narrowly) and Osborne wins in 2019, I can't see any circumstances under which I would remain a Tory member.
You can't see any circumstances???
Use your imagination: threats, bribery, blackmail, the kidnap of a loved one
Come on, there must be tonnes of reasons why you'd remain a member.
"Jo Stevens has been appointed Shadow Solicitor General in the Shadow Cabinet, replacing Karl Turner, who was promoted to Shadow Attorney General on Monday... the delay in appointing her was that she was only promoted to the Shadow Justice team on Thursday – although I am told she will retain that role as well as her new brief."
- LabList
So Kier Starmer turned it down, or Corbyn's an idiot.
I cannot see why Spurs are odds on to win tonight. Our reserves drew on Sunday after a dodgy Spurs penalty and now we are putting out the first team. 4.75 on a Leicester win seems rather long, particularly with Vardy fit again.
It was Spurs reserves as well.
Alli and Kane in the reserves? Didn't do much either...
The constituency doesn't include the (relatively posh) Ogmore on Vale. It does include Gilfach Goch (of How Green Was My Valley fame) and other tough old valleys neighbourhoods. Hardcore Labour.
It basically encompasses the area which suffered the freak spike in teenage suicides a few years back.
As a betting man, I can't believe Mike would put money on JMR leading the Outers. JMR would kill the campaign stone dead among the 95% of the country who can't relate to him.
Nonsense, JRM personifies an age-old archetype that the British public instinctively relates to and generally adores.
"Jo Stevens has been appointed Shadow Solicitor General in the Shadow Cabinet, replacing Karl Turner, who was promoted to Shadow Attorney General on Monday... the delay in appointing her was that she was only promoted to the Shadow Justice team on Thursday – although I am told she will retain that role as well as her new brief."
- LabList
So Kier Starmer turned it down, or Corbyn's an idiot.
Well one is definitely true, and the other is a distinct possibility.
We'll see now if prominent Conservative eurosceptics are willing to stand up and be counted, or whether their euroscepticism was always a sham (eg Philip Hammond).
If none do, Remain win (however narrowly) and Osborne wins in 2019, I can't see any circumstances under which I would remain a Tory member.
You can't see any circumstances???
Use your imagination: threats, bribery, blackmail, the kidnap of a loved one
Come on, there must be tonnes of reasons why you'd remain a member.
Sounds like a toys/pram moment. If you want to push for change in the party, what better place than within? As the Corbynistas are finding out.
Top tip for ski buffs: the end of next week is a fabulous time to ski in Davos/Klosters, due to the hotels being packed with boring leaders of the world. Stay down the valley and drive in every day and enjoy gorgeously empty slope. Bonus point is that you get to say to your friends: I was in Davos last week, you know...
In my opinion, the side that will win will be the side that makes people worry about their opponent's proposed 'future' the most. In addition, 'Leave' will need someone able to successfully put the boot into Cameron - to try and do it whilst using respectful kid gloves when talking about Cameron and his 'negotiation' will be extremely difficult.
Cameron will not be leading the campaign and is generally considered a nice guy. ‘Sticking the boot in’ will just make the Leave side look unpleasant. – They need to focus on the issues that may swing the undecideds, that means explaining clearly and succinctly what alternatives there are to a UK outside the EU and what will/may happen if we remain.
Jacob Rees-Mogg leading the Out campaign would be a disaster for the Leavers. His slow drawling voice would bore everyone to sleep within 5 miles of his microphone.
Boris won't gain any kudos switches from supporting Out to working to Remain in the EU. Instead he will lose most of the support he already has and has accrued over the years. He will certainly lose mine. Lets hope he changes his mind
"Iran Sanctions Seen Lifted by Monday Once Nuclear Deal Verified
A decade of sanctions imposed on Iran’s nuclear program may come to an end by Monday, unlocking billions of dollars in frozen accounts and paving the way for a surge in oil exports from the Islamic Republic."
In my opinion, the side that will win will be the side that makes people worry about their opponent's proposed 'future' the most. In addition, 'Leave' will need someone able to successfully put the boot into Cameron - to try and do it whilst using respectful kid gloves when talking about Cameron and his 'negotiation' will be extremely difficult.
Cameron will not be leading the campaign and is generally considered a nice guy. ‘Sticking the boot in’ will just make the Leave side look unpleasant. – They need to focus on the issues that may swing the undecideds, that means explaining clearly and succinctly what alternatives there are to a UK outside the EU and what will/may happen if we remain.
Who do you think will lead Remain, and how do you think Cameron will side-step the job?
I can't think that he'd want to, or if he did want to, that he'd be allowed to. It'd be like Salmond not fronting Yes in 2014.
Of the 26,000 junior doctors who were due to work during the 24-hour stoppage which began on Tuesday at 8am, 47.4% did work, according to NHS England figures.
The constituency doesn't include the (relatively posh) Ogmore on Vale. It does include Gilfach Goch (of How Green Was My Valley fame) and other tough old valleys neighbourhoods. Hardcore Labour.
It basically encompasses the area which suffered the freak spike in teenage suicides a few years back.
I thought most of those were in the Bridgend constituency.
I have to applaud the Scottish Consevative party for their honesty. Latest party political ad says they have no chance of forming the government and are looking for second place at best.
We'll see now if prominent Conservative eurosceptics are willing to stand up and be counted, or whether their euroscepticism was always a sham (eg Philip Hammond).
If none do, Remain win (however narrowly) and Osborne wins in 2019, I can't see any circumstances under which I would remain a Tory member.
You can't see any circumstances???
Use your imagination: threats, bribery, blackmail, the kidnap of a loved one
Come on, there must be tonnes of reasons why you'd remain a member.
Lol! None that I can think of for now.
In all seriousness, I just don't trust Osborne: his Conservativism is not one I share and only extends as far as what he considers to be politically expedient.
If there's no hope for me elsewhere in the party I can't see why I'd want to stay.
I think, if Leave are seriously interested in winning, they will need a Labour figure as one of their leading figures.
Any winning "Leave" strategy will depend on a big slice of the traditional working-class Labour vote, especially from the North. But, as much PBTories want to imagine that whole bloc of votes is perennially on the verge of deserting Labour, my suspicion is tribal loyalties still run deep for many of them, and that they will not vote "Leave" if they perceive it to be a Tory-only affair no matter how much they agree with their arguments on immigration et al.
Of the two main prominent Labour "Leavers", I would say Kate Hoey is a bit more accessible and media-friendly than Frank Field.
Of the 26,000 junior doctors who were due to work during the 24-hour stoppage which began on Tuesday at 8am, 47.4% did work, according to NHS England figures.
We'll see now if prominent Conservative eurosceptics are willing to stand up and be counted, or whether their euroscepticism was always a sham (eg Philip Hammond).
If none do, Remain win (however narrowly) and Osborne wins in 2019, I can't see any circumstances under which I would remain a Tory member.
You can't see any circumstances???
Use your imagination: threats, bribery, blackmail, the kidnap of a loved one
Come on, there must be tonnes of reasons why you'd remain a member.
Lol! None that I can think of for now.
In all seriousness, I just don't trust Osborne: his Conservativism is not one I share and only extends as far as what he considers to be politically expedient.
If there's no hope for me elsewhere in the party I can't see why I'd want to stay.
But he won't be leader for ever. Don't give up so easily!
I have to applaud the Scottish Consevative party for their honesty. Latest party political ad says they have no chance of forming the government and are looking for second place at best.
Of the 26,000 junior doctors who were due to work during the 24-hour stoppage which began on Tuesday at 8am, 47.4% did work, according to NHS England figures.
Leave reminds me of the Labour Party. No credible leader and no likely candidates.Well apart from Farage whO would be the dream candidate - for the REMAIN SIDE.
I have to applaud the Scottish Consevative party for their honesty. Latest party political ad says they have no chance of forming the government and are looking for second place at best.
Clearly wasn't written by a PB Tory.
It also says the SNP are going to form the next government.
If you'd been using the Crowdscores app, you would have learnt that two minutes earlier...
Get the plug in! I'm watching on a dodgy stream because the local bar can't get the BT games. About to give up its so poor quality. Edit: 1-1 Edit2: 2-1
Of the 26,000 junior doctors who were due to work during the 24-hour stoppage which began on Tuesday at 8am, 47.4% did work, according to NHS England figures.
That is a huge figure if true. Good to see so many professionals among the doctors.
I wonder what the percentage is on a usual day: how many junior docs scheduled to work do not turn up due to illness, family emergencies, even traffic?
Not trying to make a political point on this; substitute any business.
I have to applaud the Scottish Consevative party for their honesty. Latest party political ad says they have no chance of forming the government and are looking for second place at best.
Clearly wasn't written by a PB Tory.
It also says the SNP are going to form the next government.
I see Pokerstars new betting site BetStars has launched a stupid new betting product..."Spin and Bet", basically the odds you get are based up a randomly generated spin.
I have to applaud the Scottish Consevative party for their honesty. Latest party political ad says they have no chance of forming the government and are looking for second place at best.
It would be spectacular for the Scottish Tories to knock Labour into third place. Looks like they think they have a decent chance of doing it.
The constituency doesn't include the (relatively posh) Ogmore on Vale. It does include Gilfach Goch (of How Green Was My Valley fame) and other tough old valleys neighbourhoods. Hardcore Labour.
It basically encompasses the area which suffered the freak spike in teenage suicides a few years back.
I thought most of those were in the Bridgend constituency.
No, they happened in Ogmore Vale.
The Bridgend constituency includes Bridgend and the southern parts, Merthyr Mawr out to Porthcawl. The suicides occurred up the Ogmore Vale region - the Blaengarw and Ogmore Vale valleys - just south of Maesteg. Old mining valleys where there isn't much going on thee days.
Of the 26,000 junior doctors who were due to work during the 24-hour stoppage which began on Tuesday at 8am, 47.4% did work, according to NHS England figures.
I see Pokerstars new betting site BetStars has launched a stupid new betting product..."Spin and Bet", basically the odds you get are based up a randomly generated spin.
Therefore, you should always bet on odds on favourites?
I see Pokerstars new betting site BetStars has launched a stupid new betting product..."Spin and Bet", basically the odds you get are based up a randomly generated spin.
Therefore, you should always bet on odds on favourites?
I haven't looked into it more than that, but if it is anything like their Spin n Go Poker offering, the rake will be huge, the distribution of different prizes terribly skewed and generally a suckers game (unless you put in massive volume to flatten extra variance imposed by the game structure).
Sad to think of some valued contributors no longer with us (in some cases, literally), but I wonder how many other websites could have made a similar list six years ago and still have as many as a third still posting regularly.
I have to applaud the Scottish Consevative party for their honesty. Latest party political ad says they have no chance of forming the government and are looking for second place at best.
It would be spectacular for the Scottish Tories to knock Labour into third place. Looks like they think they have a decent chance of doing it.
Even if not, it's the best goal they can go for, so it's the ultimate aim for the foreseeable future (even the SNP will fall one day, but it's hard to put a date on that right now), may as well be frank about that. Even if they don't manage it, if they can run Labour close they can push on for next time.
Sad to think of some valued contributors no longer with us (in some cases, literally), but I wonder how many other websites could have made a similar list six years ago and still have as many as a third still posting regularly.
As an aside, there's something that I think has largely been missed in the recent crude oil gyrations: Brent is now cheaper than WTI. This has very significant (negative) consequences for the US refiners, who buy oil priced off WTI, but sell refined product priced off Brent.
Sad to think of some valued contributors no longer with us (in some cases, literally), but I wonder how many other websites could have made a similar list six years ago and still have as many as a third still posting regularly.
And plenty of others, like me, who didn't make the long list but have still been on here since 2004/5, despite Vanilla's 'counter'.
It seems like nearly a disproportionate number of by-elections since 2010 have been in areas which should be straightforward Labour holds. If not for some Sinn Fein handovers and UKIP defections, unusual events both, the proportion would be even higher.
As an aside, there's something that I think has largely been missed in the recent crude oil gyrations: Brent is now cheaper than WTI. This has very significant (negative) consequences for the US refiners, who buy oil priced off WTI, but sell refined product priced off Brent.
The constituency doesn't include the (relatively posh) Ogmore on Vale. It does include Gilfach Goch (of How Green Was My Valley fame) and other tough old valleys neighbourhoods. Hardcore Labour.
It basically encompasses the area which suffered the freak spike in teenage suicides a few years back.
I thought most of those were in the Bridgend constituency.
No, they happened in Ogmore Vale.
The Bridgend constituency includes Bridgend and the southern parts, Merthyr Mawr out to Porthcawl. The suicides occurred up the Ogmore Vale region - the Blaengarw and Ogmore Vale valleys - just south of Maesteg. Old mining valleys where there isn't much going on thee days.
@CouncilReporter: Ken Livingstone tells tonight's @BBCNewsnight the Trident element of Labour defence review could be finished in 8 weeks to preempt gov vote
Sad to think of some valued contributors no longer with us (in some cases, literally), but I wonder how many other websites could have made a similar list six years ago and still have as many as a third still posting regularly.
As an aside, there's something that I think has largely been missed in the recent crude oil gyrations: Brent is now cheaper than WTI. This has very significant (negative) consequences for the US refiners, who buy oil priced off WTI, but sell refined product priced off Brent.
Why do they do that?
There is a global market for refined products - such as diesel and petrol - and there is an active transatlantic trade in them. (Usually, petrol goes from European refiners into the US market, and diesel goes the other way.) Simply, there are far more refineries outside the US than inside the US, and therefore those refineries, running (mostly) off Brent crude end up setting the price of petrol and diesel.
I sort of think the opposite. That if the Conservatives had gone into opposition he'd be a strong favourite but in Government he has very little chance given he has no ministerial experience.
Osborne is virtually certain to make the final two. Only a big beast could beat him but the one chance Boris might have had (opportunistically) to beat him would be if he came out strongly for Leave.
I agree with all of that, perhaps I didn't make myself quite clear.
I must say, 'Out' must be in dire straits if the collection of failures, misfits and unknowns suggested below represents their best offering of a champion. Fox? Fibs about dating pop singers. Davies? Last seen braying homophobically in London bars. Frank Field? Known only, if at all, for being dismissed. Surely 'Out' can find someone better than these jokers!
@paulwaugh: Free vote for Labour MPs on renewing Trident nuclear system looks 'inevitable', says senior Shadow Cabinet minister https://t.co/Bur8TO3wS6
It seems like nearly a disproportionate number of by-elections since 2010 have been in areas which should be straightforward Labour holds. If not for some Sinn Fein handovers and UKIP defections, unusual events both, the proportion would be even higher.
This is the further by-election that Mike referred to a while back - I was his informant (I added that it wasn't a likely UKIP gain), but it was then confidential. I'm told that Huw wants to concentrate on Wales and feels he can't do both.
The trend hat kle4 points out isn't coincidental. People in marginal seats on either side will come under a lot of pressure not to trigger a by-election, unless they are particularly notorious for some reason. But Ogmore is not marginal by anyone's definition.
I sort of think the opposite. That if the Conservatives had gone into opposition he'd be a strong favourite but in Government he has very little chance given he has no ministerial experience.
Osborne is virtually certain to make the final two. Only a big beast could beat him but the one chance Boris might have had (opportunistically) to beat him would be if he came out strongly for Leave.
I agree with all of that, perhaps I didn't make myself quite clear.
By the time of the leadership election Boris Johnson will have been a Cabinet minister, in all probability for a couple of years.
@CouncilReporter: Ken Livingstone tells tonight's @BBCNewsnight the Trident element of Labour defence review could be finished in 8 weeks to preempt gov vote
Crickey it must have been 3 days since Red Ken has been on Newsnight...
@paulwaugh: Free vote for Labour MPs on renewing Trident nuclear system looks 'inevitable', says senior Shadow Cabinet minister https://t.co/Bur8TO3wS6
Presumably one of those free votes where you risk getting sacked if you vote the wrong way.
@CouncilReporter: Ken Livingstone tells tonight's @BBCNewsnight the Trident element of Labour defence review could be finished in 8 weeks to preempt gov vote
Eight weeks? How long is going to take Ken to consider the decision to keep Trident?
I sort of think the opposite. That if the Conservatives had gone into opposition he'd be a strong favourite but in Government he has very little chance given he has no ministerial experience.
Osborne is virtually certain to make the final two. Only a big beast could beat him but the one chance Boris might have had (opportunistically) to beat him would be if he came out strongly for Leave.
I agree with all of that, perhaps I didn't make myself quite clear.
By the time of the leadership election Boris Johnson will have been a Cabinet minister, in all probability for a couple of years.
True, and it will be very interesting to see how that pans out. If he manages to establish a reputation as someone who can be a serious player at Cabinet level, he'll be a formidable candidate.
@CouncilReporter: Ken Livingstone tells tonight's @BBCNewsnight the Trident element of Labour defence review could be finished in 8 weeks to preempt gov vote
Eight weeks? How long is going to take Ken to consider the decision to keep Trident?
In my opinion, the side that will win will be the side that makes people worry about their opponent's proposed 'future' the most. In addition, 'Leave' will need someone able to successfully put the boot into Cameron - to try and do it whilst using respectful kid gloves when talking about Cameron and his 'negotiation' will be extremely difficult.
Cameron will not be leading the campaign and is generally considered a nice guy. ‘Sticking the boot in’ will just make the Leave side look unpleasant. – They need to focus on the issues that may swing the undecideds, that means explaining clearly and succinctly what alternatives there are to a UK outside the EU and what will/may happen if we remain.
I disagree on almost all counts, except that Cameron is undoubtedly an asset for the Remain campaign. Not because he's considered a 'nice guy', but because he's considered competent and credible, and as he's already shown, he won't hesitate to use all the trappings of state to attack his opponents. This is why the Leave campaign will need to effectively unravel his position, arguments, and 'renegotiation' - something that a politely loyal Conservative MP will struggle to do, and a Cameron insider won't even try to do.
Explaining the alternatives is a bear trap. People won't understand them and will feel insecure and out of their depth. Incidentally the same as they would if 'Remain' were forced to explain all the alternative configurations of our continued EU membership, opt outs, expansion of qmv etc.
Leave need someone sensible and dull to reassure the floating voters that they aren't all mad and/or xenophobes. Theresa May would be the perfect choice if she can be persuaded. Jacob Rees-Mogg would not.
Boris previously said he would wait until the outcome of the negotiation before deciding. Now he has decided well before the deal has even been finalised.
Why?
Boris is only interested in Boris, so I can only conclude he's been offered a big job if he stays shtum. This destroys what's left of his USP for Tory leader with the MPs/members, so I think it must have been a cabinet job to convince him.
My money is that either Cameron has offered him one in case a big name resigns from cabinet (I can only imagine it's May, given Hammond has declared for Remain) or Osborne has promised him Chancellor if he agrees to be his running mate.
Or he's seen enough in the negotiations to make a judgement - as indeed many on the other side have already said.
No, anyone making that assessment is guessing. If so, why not wait until the ink is dry? What does he gain from declaring now? It will also damage his standing with the members for next Tory leader.
This is Boris: he would have wanted something tangible and bankable.
Sometimes its simply good to stop speculation before it runs away from you.
Look how damaged Corbyn got from unfettered speculation about sacking Benn only for him not to. Maybe Boris decided the risks of appearing Out if he was not leaning that way were becoming too much.
Fair enough if that's your view. You might be right. We can't be certain of anything.
However, from what I know of Boris, my money is that I'm closer to the mark.
Fair enough but I never expected Boris to be Out. I mean he has for many years been one of the most vocal supporters of immigration into the UK in the whole Party.
Just reading that Guardian article has made me think - there could be further net gains made by Tories in seats where Labour are 3rd or lower. If Bath Labour Party is seeing a boost, there is every chance that previous LD supporters or wavering tacticals would vote Labour on principle.
2020 is going to be fun.
Bath is already a Tory held seat
Yeah, but it's going double Tory in 2020!
Bath nearly went Labour in 1966. Labour was also very competitive in both 1974 elections.
CHRIS Grayling has become the first serving Cabinet minister to publicly signal he will vote to leave the EU.
Making his intentions for the In/Out referendum clear, the Leader of the House of Commons reveals he holds “strong Eurosceptic views”, and they are now well known to No10.
The 53-year-old senior Tory has also issued a withering critique of Europe today as failing, in an article for the Daily Telegraph.
The move was approved by David Cameron in his first display of tolerance for opposing views on EU membership from his top team.
I cannot see why Spurs are odds on to win tonight. Our reserves drew on Sunday after a dodgy Spurs penalty and now we are putting out the first team. 4.75 on a Leicester win seems rather long, particularly with Vardy fit again.
I refer you gentlemen to my earlier comment!
Not only are our reserves better, but so are our first team ;-)
I sort of think the opposite. That if the Conservatives had gone into opposition he'd be a strong favourite but in Government he has very little chance given he has no ministerial experience.
Osborne is virtually certain to make the final two. Only a big beast could beat him but the one chance Boris might have had (opportunistically) to beat him would be if he came out strongly for Leave.
I agree with all of that, perhaps I didn't make myself quite clear.
By the time of the leadership election Boris Johnson will have been a Cabinet minister, in all probability for a couple of years.
True, and it will be very interesting to see how that pans out. If he manages to establish a reputation as someone who can be a serious player at Cabinet level, he'll be a formidable candidate.
Leave need someone sensible and dull to reassure the floating voters that they aren't all mad and/or xenophobes. Theresa May would be the perfect choice if she can be persuaded. Jacob Rees-Mogg would not.
Boris previously said he would wait until the outcome of the negotiation before deciding. Now he has decided well before the deal has even been finalised.
Why?
Boris is only interested in Boris, so I can only conclude he's been offered a big job if he stays shtum. This destroys what's left of his USP for Tory leader with the MPs/members, so I think it must have been a cabinet job to convince him.
My money is that either Cameron has offered him one in case a big name resigns from cabinet (I can only imagine it's May, given Hammond has declared for Remain) or Osborne has promised him Chancellor if he agrees to be his running mate.
Or he's seen enough in the negotiations to make a judgement - as indeed many on the other side have already said.
No, anyone making that assessment is guessing. If so, why not wait until the ink is dry? What does he gain from declaring now? It will also damage his standing with the members for next Tory leader.
This is Boris: he would have wanted something tangible and bankable.
Sometimes its simply good to stop speculation before it runs away from you.
Look how damaged Corbyn got from unfettered speculation about sacking Benn only for him not to. Maybe Boris decided the risks of appearing Out if he was not leaning that way were becoming too much.
Fair enough if that's your view. You might be right. We can't be certain of anything.
However, from what I know of Boris, my money is that I'm closer to the mark.
Fair enough but I never expected Boris to be Out. I mean he has for many years been one of the most vocal supporters of immigration into the UK in the whole Party.
CHRIS Grayling has become the first serving Cabinet minister to publicly signal he will vote to leave the EU.
Making his intentions for the In/Out referendum clear, the Leader of the House of Commons reveals he holds “strong Eurosceptic views”, and they are now well known to No10.
The 53-year-old senior Tory has also issued a withering critique of Europe today as failing, in an article for the Daily Telegraph.
The move was approved by David Cameron in his first display of tolerance for opposing views on EU membership from his top team.
Been diagnosed with high blood pressure, and my personal pillpusher is talking about putting me on either ACE or ARB inhibitors...
Is there much difference? Side-effects? Once you're on them can you get off them?
I suggest you stop worrying about Obama's birth status...
I don't think I ever worried about it. Why would I? I just found it a fascinating question, and think the evidence, however unpalatable, is clear. The Framers and those who subsequently amended the Constitution never intended that such a person should become Prez. (and no, it ain't about his colour)
FWIW, I think he's done a reasonable job, and will miss him.
CHRIS Grayling has become the first serving Cabinet minister to publicly signal he will vote to leave the EU.
Making his intentions for the In/Out referendum clear, the Leader of the House of Commons reveals he holds “strong Eurosceptic views”, and they are now well known to No10.
The 53-year-old senior Tory has also issued a withering critique of Europe today as failing, in an article for the Daily Telegraph.
The move was approved by David Cameron in his first display of tolerance for opposing views on EU membership from his top team.
CHRIS Grayling has become the first serving Cabinet minister to publicly signal he will vote to leave the EU.
Making his intentions for the In/Out referendum clear, the Leader of the House of Commons reveals he holds “strong Eurosceptic views”, and they are now well known to No10.
The 53-year-old senior Tory has also issued a withering critique of Europe today as failing, in an article for the Daily Telegraph.
The move was approved by David Cameron in his first display of tolerance for opposing views on EU membership from his top team.
Been diagnosed with high blood pressure, and my personal pillpusher is talking about putting me on either ACE or ARB inhibitors...
Is there much difference? Side-effects? Once you're on them can you get off them?
ACE inhibitors can have some nasty side effects, but can also be very effective (after my Kidneys went wonky they brought my BP under control when nothing else did). Don't know about the the ARB stuff. There again all medicines can have side effects, take enough people and you will find someone who is allergic to something. Once you are on tablets for hypertension you are basically on them for life. Lifestyle and dietary changes can help, as no doubt your quack has told you, but I have never met anyone who once started on them has ever been able to get off them.
Been diagnosed with high blood pressure, and my personal pillpusher is talking about putting me on either ACE or ARB inhibitors...
Is there much difference? Side-effects? Once you're on them can you get off them?
ACE inhibitors can have some nasty side effects, but can also be very effective. Don't know about the the ARB stuff. There again all medicines can have side effects, take enough people and you will find someone who is allergic to something. Once you are on tablets for hypertension you are basically on them for life. Lifestyle and dietary changes can help, as no doubt your quack has told you, but I have never met anyone who once started on them has ever been able to get off them.
Correct Mr L
Just fucking stay off the meds, change your lifestyle, tabs once started are shit and inevitably lead to more tabs to stop the side effects of the tabs.
The constituency doesn't include the (relatively posh) Ogmore on Vale. It does include Gilfach Goch (of How Green Was My Valley fame) and other tough old valleys neighbourhoods. Hardcore Labour.
It basically encompasses the area which suffered the freak spike in teenage suicides a few years back.
I thought most of those were in the Bridgend constituency.
No, they happened in Ogmore Vale.
The Bridgend constituency includes Bridgend and the southern parts, Merthyr Mawr out to Porthcawl. The suicides occurred up the Ogmore Vale region - the Blaengarw and Ogmore Vale valleys - just south of Maesteg. Old mining valleys where there isn't much going on thee days.
The same kind of drop was true all over Wales but particularly in the Valleys. Generally the Christian response in England and Wales is nowadays correlated to areas of historic Irish immigration, and of some other immigrant groups to a lesser extent.
CHRIS Grayling has become the first serving Cabinet minister to publicly signal he will vote to leave the EU.
Making his intentions for the In/Out referendum clear, the Leader of the House of Commons reveals he holds “strong Eurosceptic views”, and they are now well known to No10.
The 53-year-old senior Tory has also issued a withering critique of Europe today as failing, in an article for the Daily Telegraph.
The move was approved by David Cameron in his first display of tolerance for opposing views on EU membership from his top team.
CHRIS Grayling has become the first serving Cabinet minister to publicly signal he will vote to leave the EU.
Making his intentions for the In/Out referendum clear, the Leader of the House of Commons reveals he holds “strong Eurosceptic views”, and they are now well known to No10.
The 53-year-old senior Tory has also issued a withering critique of Europe today as failing, in an article for the Daily Telegraph.
The move was approved by David Cameron in his first display of tolerance for opposing views on EU membership from his top team.
Comments
In the current climate that could be very powerful.
I agree she isn't the same as Thatcher - and she's not a perfect choice - but she does have guts, and she's female.
If the Left think that's a devastating attack on her, then they're in for a shock: making comparisons to her will excite most Tory members more than a whole pack of Viagra.
Portillo would be the best if he wants the job (can't immediately see why he would). After that David Davis.
What we can be certain of is that Osborne will know very well exactly everything we've been talking about on this thread and how much of a threat she is.
He will be planning his moves accordingly.
https://twitter.com/britainelects/status/687356876460322816
Ought to be a straightforward Labour hold.
Edit:- Oh he is standing for National Assembly. Interestingly he was a Jahadi Jez backer.
Use your imagination: threats, bribery, blackmail, the kidnap of a loved one
Come on, there must be tonnes of reasons why you'd remain a member.
- LabList
So Kier Starmer turned it down, or Corbyn's an idiot.
The constituency doesn't include the (relatively posh) Ogmore on Vale. It does include Gilfach Goch (of How Green Was My Valley fame) and other tough old valleys neighbourhoods. Hardcore Labour.
It basically encompasses the area which suffered the freak spike in teenage suicides a few years back.
GOP
Trump 34%
Cruz 28%
Carson 9%
Rubio 5%
Christie 5%
Kasich 4%
Bush 4%
Dems
Clinton 57%
Sanders 36%
http://www.oann.com/polliowa/
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/Jeremy_Corbyn/12097486/Exclusive-Jeremy-Corbyn-accused-of-plotting-to-stitch-up-upcoming-by-election.html
Boris won't gain any kudos switches from supporting Out to working to Remain in the EU. Instead he will lose most of the support he already has and has accrued over the years. He will certainly lose mine. Lets hope he changes his mind
A decade of sanctions imposed on Iran’s nuclear program may come to an end by Monday, unlocking billions of dollars in frozen accounts and paving the way for a surge in oil exports from the Islamic Republic."
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-13/iran-sanctions-seen-lifted-by-monday-as-nuclear-deal-implemented
I can't think that he'd want to, or if he did want to, that he'd be allowed to. It'd be like Salmond not fronting Yes in 2014.
http://www.theguardian.com/society/2016/jan/13/nearly-half-of-junior-doctors-worked-during-strike-nhs-says
In all seriousness, I just don't trust Osborne: his Conservativism is not one I share and only extends as far as what he considers to be politically expedient.
If there's no hope for me elsewhere in the party I can't see why I'd want to stay.
Any winning "Leave" strategy will depend on a big slice of the traditional working-class Labour vote, especially from the North. But, as much PBTories want to imagine that whole bloc of votes is perennially on the verge of deserting Labour, my suspicion is tribal loyalties still run deep for many of them, and that they will not vote "Leave" if they perceive it to be a Tory-only affair no matter how much they agree with their arguments on immigration et al.
Of the two main prominent Labour "Leavers", I would say Kate Hoey is a bit more accessible and media-friendly than Frank Field.
The test is the strike that will also be a walk out of emergency services.
Edit: 1-1
Edit2: 2-1
Not trying to make a political point on this; substitute any business.
The Bridgend constituency includes Bridgend and the southern parts, Merthyr Mawr out to Porthcawl. The suicides occurred up the Ogmore Vale region - the Blaengarw and Ogmore Vale valleys - just south of Maesteg. Old mining valleys where there isn't much going on thee days.
What a game
What a name
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2009/12/23/the-voting-round-one-choose-the-4-person-short-list/
Sad to think of some valued contributors no longer with us (in some cases, literally), but I wonder how many other websites could have made a similar list six years ago and still have as many as a third still posting regularly.
The trend hat kle4 points out isn't coincidental. People in marginal seats on either side will come under a lot of pressure not to trigger a by-election, unless they are particularly notorious for some reason. But Ogmore is not marginal by anyone's definition.
"....three....two....one.... Nope."
Explaining the alternatives is a bear trap. People won't understand them and will feel insecure and out of their depth. Incidentally the same as they would if 'Remain' were forced to explain all the alternative configurations of our continued EU membership, opt outs, expansion of qmv etc.
Been diagnosed with high blood pressure, and my personal pillpusher is talking about putting me on either ACE or ARB inhibitors...
Is there much difference? Side-effects? Once you're on them can you get off them?
'It's been entertaining, but I won't be remaining.'
is my best effort so far, and it's poor, very poor.
Making his intentions for the In/Out referendum clear, the Leader of the House of Commons reveals he holds “strong Eurosceptic views”, and they are now well known to No10.
The 53-year-old senior Tory has also issued a withering critique of Europe today as failing, in an article for the Daily Telegraph.
The move was approved by David Cameron in his first display of tolerance for opposing views on EU membership from his top team.
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/6859468/Chris-Grayling-is-the-first-Tory-Cabinet-minister-to-announce-support-for-EU-exit.html
Not only are our reserves better, but so are our first team ;-)
Liverpool v Arsenal: the right result. Great game.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CYob-8mWkAAcuGS.jpg
Heaven help the English batsmen in the morning...
@Maomentum_: I urge all sides of the party to now unite and fight the real enemy: Question Time
I just found it a fascinating question, and think the evidence, however unpalatable, is clear. The Framers and those who subsequently amended the Constitution never intended that such a person should become Prez. (and no, it ain't about his colour)
FWIW, I think he's done a reasonable job, and will miss him.
But I shall try and come up with a thread that pleases you for Sunday.
Just fucking stay off the meds, change your lifestyle, tabs once started are shit and inevitably lead to more tabs to stop the side effects of the tabs.