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SystemSystem Posts: 12,598
edited January 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If not Boris then WHO is going to lead of the out campaign?

The EU referendum is getting closer and last week’s announcement by David Cameron that ministers could campaign for LEAVE might have been expected to open the flood gates of senior Tories announcing that they would be campaigning against.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,097
    1st?
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Judging by what I read today could it be Noel Edmonds?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,194
    Dan Hannan, David Davis or Liam Fox, Owen Patterson at a push
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,776
    Huzzah for the Moggster!

    He's a bit modern, but nobody's perfect.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    O/T:

    "The news that the Swedish authorities covered up widespread sexual assaults by immigrant gangs on teenage girls at a Stockholm music festival, and possibly other incidents too, is immensely damaging for race relations in Sweden because it conforms so precisely to two stereotypes.

    The first, widely believed in nationalist circles, is that immigrants to Sweden are responsible for the huge rise in reported rapes in recent years. The second, more true, and much more widely believed, is that you cannot trust respectable Swedish opinion to be honest about the bad effects of immigration."

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jan/13/sex-assaults-sweden-stockholm-music-festival
  • BaskervilleBaskerville Posts: 391
    edited January 2016
    It can only be Dan Hannan.
    DD and Liam have failed too often, are poor public speakers and are too associated with the Tory brand.
    Dan is fresh, thinks on his feet and can handle and present a brief with wit and passion. He is also an experienced politician without being recognisable as an Evil Tory by most voters.
    I say this as a current Remainer and someone who would like to see Dan Hannan in the HoC asap.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Leave need someone sensible and dull to reassure the floating voters that they aren't all mad and/or xenophobes. Theresa May would be the perfect choice if she can be persuaded. Jacob Rees-Mogg would not.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,965
    taffys said:

    Judging by what I read today could it be Noel Edmonds?

    No Deal
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    ''The news that the Swedish authorities covered up widespread sexual assaults by immigrant gangs on teenage girls at a Stockholm music festival, and possibly other incidents too, is immensely damaging for race relations in Sweden because it conforms so precisely to two stereotypes.''

    Is that one crime or two?

    1. Did not publicise the prosecutions?

    Or

    2. Did not publicise the incidents and never prosecuted anybody?
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    Anyone but Farage.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,312
    nigel4england said:

    Anyone but Farage.

    Says antinigel4england?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    "This would make the battle an Eton versus Eton confrontation given both went to the same school near Slough."

    No it wouldn't. Cameron will not be leading the Remain campaign. He'll be recommending people to vote Remain, which is a completely different thing.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,021
    Frank Field, Kate Hoey, and Theresa May would be on my short list.

    Michael Gove is another, but I suspect he's very loyal to Dave.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,021
    Point of pedantry, isn't Eton a school near Windsor?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    The problem with Dan Hannan is outside political obsessives most people would say "who?"
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,021
    I suspect Remain are going to be left with David Davis.

    I know, can anyone imagine David Davis opposing David Cameron?
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited January 2016
    Boris has calculated leave don't have much of a chance.

    I did point out leave was value @ 1.6 - it's now 1.46 & still value.

    Should be ~1.2
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,021
    Philip_Thompson said:

    The problem with Dan Hannan is outside political obsessives most people would say "who?"

    He's the bloke who has the eccentric views on the NHS.

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2009/aug/14/health-nhs
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Sajid Javid would be good for Out.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Philip_Thompson said:

    The problem with Dan Hannan is outside political obsessives most people would say "who?"

    That's the problem with most conceivable candidates to lead Leave. The exceptions are largely "Oh Christ, not HIM" candidates.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,874
    Donald Trump to lead the out campaign ?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited January 2016
    Of the names mentioned, Theresa May would be ideal for the reason @AlastairMeeks gives, but I rather suspect she won't play ball. Dan Hannan is a great guy but I think his rather cerebral approach will leave most voters scratching their heads. Jacob Rees-Mogg is a bit of a specialist taste. Farage is too Marmitesque. DD and Liam Fox would put off a lot of people, most especially those in the uncommitted centre who are the ones the Leave campaign needs to attract.

    Owen Paterson is articulate and would be a possible choice, but again he's rather too far to the Right to be the ideal leader of a cross-party campaign. Kate Hoey would good, but she's not that well known. Still, of those mooted I think she'd be the best choice - remembering that the campaign doesn't need to attract the already-committed, it needs to attract floaters and reassure doubters.

  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    edited January 2016
    Good idea.
    Although Jacob Rees-Mogg is a bit of a mouthful. JRM should be preferrred as with JFK, MLK, RFK or FDR.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,021
    Pong said:

    Boris has calculated leave don't have much of a chance.

    I did point out leave was value @ 1.6 - it's now 1.46 & still value.

    Should be ~1.2

    Plus being offered the job of Foreign Secretary swayed him too.

    I think he realised there will only be one outcome if the referendum boils down to Cameron promising economic stability with Remain.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    If Dan Hannan was as good as his supporters claim, he wouldn't have spent his entire political career in the European Parliament.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,021
    alex. said:

    If Dan Hannan was as good as his supporters claim, he wouldn't have spent his entire political career in the European Parliament.

    I like Dan Hannan, he's from Peru, just like Paddington.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,739
    "This would make the battle an Eton versus Eton confrontation given both went to the same school near Slough."

    What a wonderful conclusion.

    The referendum will be won and lost on the playing fields of Eton.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Douglas Carswell is also a possibility.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,739
    Baskerville said:

    It can only be Dan Hannan.
    DD and Liam have failed too often, are poor public speakers and are too associated with the Tory brand.
    Dan is fresh, thinks on his feet and can handle and present a brief with wit and passion. He is also an experienced politician without being recognisable as an Evil Tory by most voters.
    I say this as a current Remainer and someone who would like to see Dan Hannan in the HoC asap.

    We now live in the YouTube era and Hannan would rapidly be known to voters as the man from Fox News.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "An ally of Jeremy Corbyn could be removed from a key party post within days as Labour moderates mount a fightback.

    Labour MPs are planning to hold a vote on Monday that would force Steve Rotheram, Mr Corbyn’s parliamentary aide, to resign from the party’s national executive committee. Two of Mr Corbyn’s leading critics within the party are being lined up to replace him."

    http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4663797.ece
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Point of pedantry, isn't Eton a school near Windsor?

    " There's a row going on down near Windsor ".
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,021
    I think the bigger issue is which of the Leave sides is designated as the official Leave campaign.

    If it is Leave.EU the front man of the campaign is going to be Nigel Farage.

    You can see why the electoral commission might designated Leave.EU as the official campaign, they've been at it longer than Vote Leave.

    Plus, Vote Leave have engaged in some particularly childish antics cf Dave at the CBI
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    The second oldest former MP has died: Albert McQuarrie, who was Conservative MP for Banff and Buchan until Alex Salmond defeated him in 1987.

    http://news.stv.tv/scotland/1338908-stephen-daisley-on-the-death-of-former-north-east-mp-sir-albert-mcquarrie/
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,232
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    "This would make the battle an Eton versus Eton confrontation given both went to the same school near Slough."

    No it wouldn't. Cameron will not be leading the Remain campaign. He'll be recommending people to vote Remain, which is a completely different thing.

    A leading figure of Remain then.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,850
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Leave need someone sensible and dull to reassure the floating voters that they aren't all mad and/or xenophobes. Theresa May would be the perfect choice if she can be persuaded. Jacob Rees-Mogg would not.

    Boris previously said he would wait until the outcome of the negotiation before deciding. Now he has decided well before the deal has even been finalised.

    Why?

    Boris is only interested in Boris, so I can only conclude he's been offered a big job if he stays shtum. This destroys what's left of his USP for Tory leader with the MPs/members, so I think it must have been a cabinet job to convince him.

    My money is that either Cameron has offered him one in case a big name resigns from cabinet (I can only imagine it's May, given Hammond has declared for Remain) or Osborne has promised him Chancellor if he agrees to be his running mate.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    FPT
    Casino_Royale said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    For example, by virtue of the excellent video on population you linked to several days ago, by 2100 it is likely that global human population will be 11 billion+ (plateau point) with 5 billion in Asia and 4 billion in Africa, and only 1 billion in Europe and the Americas.

    Really?

    Population in Europe is currently 0.742 billion.
    Population in the Americas is currently 0.953 billion.
    Population in Africa is currently 1.111 billion

    Do you mean 1 billion each (which means virtually no growth in the Americas) or are you talking about a catastrophic population decline of nearly 50% if its 1 billion between them?

    A quadrupling of the population in Africa seems unlikely to me.
    Yes, sorry. 1bn in Europe and another 1bn in the Americas.

    Robert Smithson posted a video link to the lecture. It forecast Africa expanding from 1bn to 4bn and Asia from 4bn - 5bn.

    We are already at c.7bn today.
    11 billion peak from ~7bn globally sounds about right.

    The notion all that growth will occur in Africa I am very skeptical about. For one thing if the population in Africa quadruples over the next 85 years then I would expect migration flows that would make the last 12 months look incredibly isolationist.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Casino_Royale said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Leave need someone sensible and dull to reassure the floating voters that they aren't all mad and/or xenophobes. Theresa May would be the perfect choice if she can be persuaded. Jacob Rees-Mogg would not.

    Boris previously said he would wait until the outcome of the negotiation before deciding. Now he has decided well before the deal has even been finalised.

    Why?

    Boris is only interested in Boris, so I can only conclude he's been offered a big job if he stays shtum. This destroys what's left of his USP for Tory leader with the MPs/members, so I think it must have been a cabinet job to convince him.

    My money is that either Cameron has offered him one in case a big name resigns from cabinet (I can only imagine it's May, given Hammond has declared for Remain) or Osborne has promised him Chancellor if he agrees to be his running mate.
    Or he's seen enough in the negotiations to make a judgement - as indeed many on the other side have already said.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,850
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Of the names mentioned, Theresa May would be ideal for the reason @AlastairMeeks gives, but I rather suspect she won't play ball. Dan Hannan is a great guy but I think his rather cerebral approach will leave most voters scratching their heads. Jacob Rees-Mogg is a bit of a specialist taste. Farage is too Marmitesque. DD and Liam Fox would put off a lot of people, most especially those in the uncommitted centre who are the ones the Leave campaign needs to attract.

    Owen Paterson is articulate and would be a possible choice, but again he's rather too far to the Right to be the ideal leader of a cross-party campaign. Kate Hoey would good, but she's not that well known. Still, of those mooted I think she'd be the best choice - remembering that the campaign doesn't need to attract the already-committed, it needs to attract floaters and reassure doubters.

    I think Theresa May will go as far as she possibly can to dogwhistle Leave without actually declaring for it.

    If she did declare for Leave and fight that from within cabinet that'd be a huge deal, because normally someone of her seniority and standing would have to resign.

    But she doesn't lack guts and Cameron did allow her to make that clear and unambiguous conference speech last October, so who knows. If she does, I expect the next Tory leader betting to move strongly in her favour.

    I'd lay Boris now.
  • flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903
    Casino_Royale said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Leave need someone sensible and dull to reassure the floating voters that they aren't all mad and/or xenophobes. Theresa May would be the perfect choice if she can be persuaded. Jacob Rees-Mogg would not.

    Boris previously said he would wait until the outcome of the negotiation before deciding. Now he has decided well before the deal has even been finalised.

    Why?

    Boris is only interested in Boris, so I can only conclude he's been offered a big job if he stays shtum. This destroys what's left of his USP for Tory leader with the MPs/members, so I think it must have been a cabinet job to convince him.

    My money is that either Cameron has offered him one in case a big name resigns from cabinet (I can only imagine it's May, given Hammond has declared for Remain) or Osborne has promised him Chancellor if he agrees to be his running mate.
    You are beginning to sound like a sulking Corbynista.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    According to this report, it's not looking good for those in the Labour Party who want to get rid of Corbyn before the next election:

    ""Revealed: how Jeremy Corbyn has reshaped the Labour party
    Leader’s hopes of remoulding the party boosted as Guardian survey shows surge in members, huge support and shift to the left"

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jan/13/revealed-how-jeremy-corbyn-has-reshaped-the-labour-party
  • richardDoddrichardDodd Posts: 5,472
    Population growth in Africa..they can make em..but they cant feed em....no growth..just a lot of dead kids
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,097
    It needs to be someone the general public will know well, otherwise there will be all the known politicians on one side and a bunch of unknowns (plus Farage) on the other.
    David Davis maybe, or Carswell, with support from Field and Hoey to make a cross-party campaign.

    Both sides need to remember that they are trying to attract the floating voter, not the already committed, so some of the more vocal supporters over the years are probably not going to be the best choice for the role.
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Point of pedantry, isn't Eton a school near Windsor?

    Yes, blame Paul Weller for the Slough connection.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,850
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Leave need someone sensible and dull to reassure the floating voters that they aren't all mad and/or xenophobes. Theresa May would be the perfect choice if she can be persuaded. Jacob Rees-Mogg would not.

    Boris previously said he would wait until the outcome of the negotiation before deciding. Now he has decided well before the deal has even been finalised.

    Why?

    Boris is only interested in Boris, so I can only conclude he's been offered a big job if he stays shtum. This destroys what's left of his USP for Tory leader with the MPs/members, so I think it must have been a cabinet job to convince him.

    My money is that either Cameron has offered him one in case a big name resigns from cabinet (I can only imagine it's May, given Hammond has declared for Remain) or Osborne has promised him Chancellor if he agrees to be his running mate.
    Or he's seen enough in the negotiations to make a judgement - as indeed many on the other side have already said.
    No, anyone making that assessment is guessing. If so, why not wait until the ink is dry? What does he gain from declaring now? It will also damage his standing with the members for next Tory leader.

    This is Boris: he would have wanted something tangible and bankable.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,194
    richardDodd said:

    Population growth in Africa..they can make em..but they cant feed em....no growth..just a lot of dead kids

    Africa's growth rate is about 5%, not great but rather better than the Eurozone
    http://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2014/jan/20/africa-economic-growth-failing-development-jobs
  • flightpath01flightpath01 Posts: 4,903
    Pulpstar said:

    Donald Trump to lead the out campaign ?

    Is this the Donald Trump Out (of Scotland) Campaign?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 129,194
    AndyJS said:

    According to this report, it's not looking good for those in the Labour Party who want to get rid of Corbyn before the next election:

    ""Revealed: how Jeremy Corbyn has reshaped the Labour party
    Leader’s hopes of remoulding the party boosted as Guardian survey shows surge in members, huge support and shift to the left"

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jan/13/revealed-how-jeremy-corbyn-has-reshaped-the-labour-party

    Labour could only get rid of Corbyn with an MP led coup anyway, consulting members is pointless
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,830
    Casino_Royale said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Leave need someone sensible and dull to reassure the floating voters that they aren't all mad and/or xenophobes. Theresa May would be the perfect choice if she can be persuaded. Jacob Rees-Mogg would not.

    Boris previously said he would wait until the outcome of the negotiation before deciding. Now he has decided well before the deal has even been finalised.

    Why?

    Boris is only interested in Boris, so I can only conclude he's been offered a big job if he stays shtum. This destroys what's left of his USP for Tory leader with the MPs/members, so I think it must have been a cabinet job to convince him.

    My money is that either Cameron has offered him one in case a big name resigns from cabinet (I can only imagine it's May, given Hammond has declared for Remain) or Osborne has promised him Chancellor if he agrees to be his running mate.
    Boris is no loss.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,850
    Philip_Thompson said:

    FPT

    Casino_Royale said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    For example, by virtue of the excellent video on population you linked to several days ago, by 2100 it is likely that global human population will be 11 billion+ (plateau point) with 5 billion in Asia and 4 billion in Africa, and only 1 billion in Europe and the Americas.

    Really?

    Population in Europe is currently 0.742 billion.
    Population in the Americas is currently 0.953 billion.
    Population in Africa is currently 1.111 billion

    Do you mean 1 billion each (which means virtually no growth in the Americas) or are you talking about a catastrophic population decline of nearly 50% if its 1 billion between them?

    A quadrupling of the population in Africa seems unlikely to me.
    Yes, sorry. 1bn in Europe and another 1bn in the Americas.

    Robert Smithson posted a video link to the lecture. It forecast Africa expanding from 1bn to 4bn and Asia from 4bn - 5bn.

    We are already at c.7bn today.
    11 billion peak from ~7bn globally sounds about right.

    The notion all that growth will occur in Africa I am very skeptical about. For one thing if the population in Africa quadruples over the next 85 years then I would expect migration flows that would make the last 12 months look incredibly isolationist.
    Exactly. William Hague wrote presciently about this:

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/eureferendum/11986994/The-migrant-crisis-is-a-mere-gust-of-the-hurricane-that-will-soon-engulf-Europe.html
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Casino_Royale said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Leave need someone sensible and dull to reassure the floating voters that they aren't all mad and/or xenophobes. Theresa May would be the perfect choice if she can be persuaded. Jacob Rees-Mogg would not.

    Boris previously said he would wait until the outcome of the negotiation before deciding. Now he has decided well before the deal has even been finalised.

    Why?

    Boris is only interested in Boris, so I can only conclude he's been offered a big job if he stays shtum. This destroys what's left of his USP for Tory leader with the MPs/members, so I think it must have been a cabinet job to convince him.

    My money is that either Cameron has offered him one in case a big name resigns from cabinet (I can only imagine it's May, given Hammond has declared for Remain) or Osborne has promised him Chancellor if he agrees to be his running mate.
    Or he's seen enough in the negotiations to make a judgement - as indeed many on the other side have already said.
    No, anyone making that assessment is guessing. If so, why not wait until the ink is dry? What does he gain from declaring now? It will also damage his standing with the members for next Tory leader.

    This is Boris: he would have wanted something tangible and bankable.
    Sometimes its simply good to stop speculation before it runs away from you.

    Look how damaged Corbyn got from unfettered speculation about sacking Benn only for him not to. Maybe Boris decided the risks of appearing Out if he was not leaning that way were becoming too much.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,097
    edited January 2016
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    The problem with Dan Hannan is outside political obsessives most people would say "who?"

    He's the bloke who has the eccentric views on the NHS.

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2009/aug/14/health-nhs
    Most non-geeks will know him for his takedown of Gordon Brown.
    I'm not sure if he's the right man to attract the middle voter, although he is undoubtedly a great speaker and debater, he knows the arguments very well about the EU as an institution, rather than the vague notion of 'Europe' the pro-EU camp will use.
    http://youtu.be/94lW6Y4tBXs
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,800
    Rees-Mogg would be an really excellent choice. Not only would he be a strong advocate for the Leave campaign, but he'd also help to keep the debate unheated.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Sandpit said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    The problem with Dan Hannan is outside political obsessives most people would say "who?"

    He's the bloke who has the eccentric views on the NHS.

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2009/aug/14/health-nhs
    Most non-geeks will know him for his takedown of Gordon Brown.
    Most non-geeks won't know him at all.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Omnium said:

    Rees-Mogg would be an really excellent choice. Not only would he be a strong advocate for the Leave campaign, but he'd also help to keep the debate unheated.

    Rees-Mogg and Hoey at the head of the Leave campaign would make things very difficult for Remain IMO.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,021
    Sandpit said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    The problem with Dan Hannan is outside political obsessives most people would say "who?"

    He's the bloke who has the eccentric views on the NHS.

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2009/aug/14/health-nhs
    Most non-geeks will know him for his takedown of Gordon Brown. I'm not sure if he's the right man to attract the middle voter, although he is undoubtedly a great speaker and debater, he knows the arguments very well about the EU as an institution, rather than the vague notion of 'Europe' the pro-EU camp will use.
    http://youtu.be/94lW6Y4tBXs
    I like him a lot, but I've always seen him as more of a Keith Joseph than a Margaret Thatcher.

    The one thing I like about him above all else, he's very loyal.

    Whenever Dave does anything in this referendum that Dan doesn't approve of, he says something like 'I'm grateful to the PM for giving us this referendum' and it is up to us to win the argument, not whine
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    HYUFD said:

    richardDodd said:

    Population growth in Africa..they can make em..but they cant feed em....no growth..just a lot of dead kids

    Africa's growth rate is about 5%, not great but rather better than the Eurozone
    http://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2014/jan/20/africa-economic-growth-failing-development-jobs
    Nigeria is the biggest economy and it relies heavily on oil revenues.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,235
    edited January 2016
    Just reading that Guardian article has made me think - there could be further net gains made by Tories in seats where Labour are 3rd or lower. If Bath Labour Party is seeing a boost, there is every chance that previous LD supporters or wavering tacticals would vote Labour on principle.

    2020 is going to be fun.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,830
    AndyJS said:

    HYUFD said:

    richardDodd said:

    Population growth in Africa..they can make em..but they cant feed em....no growth..just a lot of dead kids

    Africa's growth rate is about 5%, not great but rather better than the Eurozone
    http://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2014/jan/20/africa-economic-growth-failing-development-jobs
    Nigeria is the biggest economy and it relies heavily on oil revenues.
    Most of the big African countries are commodity exporters: Nigeria, South Africa, Egypt, Angola, etc
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,830
    Omnium said:

    Rees-Mogg would be an really excellent choice. Not only would he be a strong advocate for the Leave campaign, but he'd also help to keep the debate unheated.

    Hmmmm... You are a Remain-er I'd guess
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,830
    HYUFD said:

    richardDodd said:

    Population growth in Africa..they can make em..but they cant feed em....no growth..just a lot of dead kids

    Africa's growth rate is about 5%, not great but rather better than the Eurozone
    http://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2014/jan/20/africa-economic-growth-failing-development-jobs
    That's before the fall in commodity prices.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 123,021
    Mortimer said:

    Just reading that Guardian article has made me think - there could be further net gains made by Tories in seats where Labour are 3rd or lower. If Bath Labour Party is seeing a boost, there is every chance that previous LD supporters or wavering tacticals would vote Labour on principle.

    2020 is going to be fun.

    Bath is already a Tory held seat
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Evening all.

    Jacob Rees-Mogg? – Lord I hope not, a good speaker he may be, but a little odd looking.

    What the leave side need is someone like Dan Hannan who knows the subject inside out, is articulate, presentable and unfailingly courteous. – Perhaps they should ask Dan where such a man can be found….
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,800
    AndyJS said:

    Omnium said:

    Rees-Mogg would be an really excellent choice. Not only would he be a strong advocate for the Leave campaign, but he'd also help to keep the debate unheated.

    Rees-Mogg and Hoey at the head of the Leave campaign would make things very difficult for Remain IMO.
    Yep that'd be a good combination.

    And we do (Well at least I do) want things to be difficult for the Remain campaign - we want them to make a strong positive case for staying in. I'm pretty much undecided, and I really would like to see the issues well discussed, and although I think Farage isn't all bad I don't think his style of politics is right for this. I think that applies to a lot of politicians.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,850
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Leave need someone sensible and dull to reassure the floating voters that they aren't all mad and/or xenophobes. Theresa May would be the perfect choice if she can be persuaded. Jacob Rees-Mogg would not.

    Boris previously said he would wait until the outcome of the negotiation before deciding. Now he has decided well before the deal has even been finalised.

    Why?

    Boris is only interested in Boris, so I can only conclude he's been offered a big job if he stays shtum. This destroys what's left of his USP for Tory leader with the MPs/members, so I think it must have been a cabinet job to convince him.

    My money is that either Cameron has offered him one in case a big name resigns from cabinet (I can only imagine it's May, given Hammond has declared for Remain) or Osborne has promised him Chancellor if he agrees to be his running mate.
    Or he's seen enough in the negotiations to make a judgement - as indeed many on the other side have already said.
    No, anyone making that assessment is guessing. If so, why not wait until the ink is dry? What does he gain from declaring now? It will also damage his standing with the members for next Tory leader.

    This is Boris: he would have wanted something tangible and bankable.
    Sometimes its simply good to stop speculation before it runs away from you.

    Look how damaged Corbyn got from unfettered speculation about sacking Benn only for him not to. Maybe Boris decided the risks of appearing Out if he was not leaning that way were becoming too much.
    Fair enough if that's your view. You might be right. We can't be certain of anything.

    However, from what I know of Boris, my money is that I'm closer to the mark.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,235
    edited January 2016
    The Mogg is incredibly bright - he also has that indefinable charm common to most OEs I know.

    Watch any interview with him and witness him charming the pants off the interviewer/co interviewees.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,830
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Mortimer said:

    Just reading that Guardian article has made me think - there could be further net gains made by Tories in seats where Labour are 3rd or lower. If Bath Labour Party is seeing a boost, there is every chance that previous LD supporters or wavering tacticals would vote Labour on principle.

    2020 is going to be fun.

    Bath is already a Tory held seat
    Yeah, but it's going double Tory in 2020!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,850
    flightpath01 said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Leave need someone sensible and dull to reassure the floating voters that they aren't all mad and/or xenophobes. Theresa May would be the perfect choice if she can be persuaded. Jacob Rees-Mogg would not.

    Boris previously said he would wait until the outcome of the negotiation before deciding. Now he has decided well before the deal has even been finalised.

    Why?

    Boris is only interested in Boris, so I can only conclude he's been offered a big job if he stays shtum. This destroys what's left of his USP for Tory leader with the MPs/members, so I think it must have been a cabinet job to convince him.

    My money is that either Cameron has offered him one in case a big name resigns from cabinet (I can only imagine it's May, given Hammond has declared for Remain) or Osborne has promised him Chancellor if he agrees to be his running mate.
    You are beginning to sound like a sulking Corbynista.
    Why?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,235
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Mortimer said:

    Just reading that Guardian article has made me think - there could be further net gains made by Tories in seats where Labour are 3rd or lower. If Bath Labour Party is seeing a boost, there is every chance that previous LD supporters or wavering tacticals would vote Labour on principle.

    2020 is going to be fun.

    Bath is already a Tory held seat
    I know that...

    I meant vote share net gains.

    I.e. The number of marginals decrease...

    Bodes well for 2025.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,235
    Especially when the Mortimer 'Labour is only London' strategy is rolled out to the provinces....
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,800
    So now all we need is for the wider world to see the merits of Mike's suggestion, and we'll actually have a really great political debate. Moreover the more serious the debate, then to my mind the more interesting the betting opportunities. I don't think that's a general rule (cf US Presidency), but in this case I think it's right.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,097
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Sandpit said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    The problem with Dan Hannan is outside political obsessives most people would say "who?"

    He's the bloke who has the eccentric views on the NHS.

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2009/aug/14/health-nhs
    Most non-geeks will know him for his takedown of Gordon Brown. I'm not sure if he's the right man to attract the middle voter, although he is undoubtedly a great speaker and debater, he knows the arguments very well about the EU as an institution, rather than the vague notion of 'Europe' the pro-EU camp will use.
    http://youtu.be/94lW6Y4tBXs
    I like him a lot, but I've always seen him as more of a Keith Joseph than a Margaret Thatcher.

    The one thing I like about him above all else, he's very loyal.

    Whenever Dave does anything in this referendum that Dan doesn't approve of, he says something like 'I'm grateful to the PM for giving us this referendum' and it is up to us to win the argument, not whine
    Agree completely. He's the sort of politician we need a lot more of.

    He'll be very involved in the campaign, and will be completely positive about everything except the corrupt, wasteful and unaccountable EU. But someone better known should be leading it.

    Off topic, do you dare watch Liverpool v Arsenal? I can't see last year's result repeating itself somehow!
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited January 2016
    Casino_Royale said:

    No, anyone making that assessment is guessing. If so, why not wait until the ink is dry? What does he gain from declaring now? It will also damage his standing with the members for next Tory leader.

    I've never bought into the idea that Boris is a BOOer, in fact I don't think he differs from Cameron on anything very much (other than the merits of Boris Johnson as a future PM!). It's speculation of course, but my guess is that he is declaring now because it would damage his chances more to be hyped up as prominent Leaver, and then to disappoint the Leave camp in the Conservative Party nearer the time. His calculation is more likely to be that Remain will win, he's on balance likely to favour Remain anyway, so he'll want to position himself as a serious candidate for the post-Cameron, post-referendum world.

    As it happens, I don't particularly rate his chances, but he could get a juicy Cabinet post. I expect he'd rather fancy Foreign Sec.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    rcs1000 said:

    AndyJS said:

    HYUFD said:

    richardDodd said:

    Population growth in Africa..they can make em..but they cant feed em....no growth..just a lot of dead kids

    Africa's growth rate is about 5%, not great but rather better than the Eurozone
    http://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2014/jan/20/africa-economic-growth-failing-development-jobs
    Nigeria is the biggest economy and it relies heavily on oil revenues.
    Most of the big African countries are commodity exporters: Nigeria, South Africa, Egypt, Angola, etc
    Sure the African economies are fairly heavily commodity driven, but there are other signs of progress in Africa. There is an expanding middle class and signs of progress elsewhere in the economies. The Christian majority states are increasingly democratic and have falling fertility rates. I am quite positive about the future of Sub-Saharan africa.

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,850
    This is worth reading to understand what might be going on:

    http://www.spectator.co.uk/2015/10/is-theresa-may-gearing-up-to-lead-the-eu-no-campaign/
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    I think that no one will lead the Leave campaign.
    There will be 2-3 different Leave campaigns, all with their own leader.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,830
    foxinsoxuk said:

    rcs1000 said:

    AndyJS said:

    HYUFD said:

    richardDodd said:

    Population growth in Africa..they can make em..but they cant feed em....no growth..just a lot of dead kids

    Africa's growth rate is about 5%, not great but rather better than the Eurozone
    http://www.theguardian.com/global-development/2014/jan/20/africa-economic-growth-failing-development-jobs
    Nigeria is the biggest economy and it relies heavily on oil revenues.
    Most of the big African countries are commodity exporters: Nigeria, South Africa, Egypt, Angola, etc
    Sure the African economies are fairly heavily commodity driven, but there are other signs of progress in Africa. There is an expanding middle class and signs of progress elsewhere in the economies. The Christian majority states are increasingly democratic and have falling fertility rates. I am quite positive about the future of Sub-Saharan africa.

    I actually agree with much of that. I have a friend who runs a Frontier Markets fund, and he's invested in consumer companies in places that are beyond emerging markets: Bangladesh, Madagascar and the like. It's astonishing to see the progress in some of this places. Non resource exporting Africa is showing some incredible progress.

    Nevertheless, Nigeria is one of the world's largest oil exporters, and the price of oil has collapsed 75% in the past 18 months. So, you would expect the growth rate for the continent as a whole to stumble.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Speedy said:

    I think that no one will lead the Leave campaign.
    There will be 2-3 different Leave campaigns, all with their own leader.

    I think that would be best. Leavers are a bit notoriously fractious. A single campaign would be vulnerable to internal feuding and score settling.

    I would say the same for Remain too. Hard to see Corbyn, Sturgeon and Cameron speaking on the same platform either.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,300
    The LEAVERs need someone from a BME background, to outflank any possible accusations of racism and/or bigotry.

    Someone who has a deep-seated love and appreciation of the Great British Railway network.

    Someone who thinks, unequivocally, that English is far and away the best language in the world.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Casino_Royale said:

    This is worth reading to understand what might be going on:

    http://www.spectator.co.uk/2015/10/is-theresa-may-gearing-up-to-lead-the-eu-no-campaign/

    I've expected for some time that Boris Johnson will campaign for Remain and Theresa May will campaign for Leave.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,830
    Casino_Royale said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Leave need someone sensible and dull to reassure the floating voters that they aren't all mad and/or xenophobes. Theresa May would be the perfect choice if she can be persuaded. Jacob Rees-Mogg would not.

    Boris previously said he would wait until the outcome of the negotiation before deciding. Now he has decided well before the deal has even been finalised.

    Why?

    Boris is only interested in Boris, so I can only conclude he's been offered a big job if he stays shtum. This destroys what's left of his USP for Tory leader with the MPs/members, so I think it must have been a cabinet job to convince him.

    My money is that either Cameron has offered him one in case a big name resigns from cabinet (I can only imagine it's May, given Hammond has declared for Remain) or Osborne has promised him Chancellor if he agrees to be his running mate.
    Or he's seen enough in the negotiations to make a judgement - as indeed many on the other side have already said.
    No, anyone making that assessment is guessing. If so, why not wait until the ink is dry? What does he gain from declaring now? It will also damage his standing with the members for next Tory leader.

    This is Boris: he would have wanted something tangible and bankable.
    Sometimes its simply good to stop speculation before it runs away from you.

    Look how damaged Corbyn got from unfettered speculation about sacking Benn only for him not to. Maybe Boris decided the risks of appearing Out if he was not leaning that way were becoming too much.
    Fair enough if that's your view. You might be right. We can't be certain of anything.

    However, from what I know of Boris, my money is that I'm closer to the mark.
    There's also the issue that Boris was very pro-EU when he was hanging around the City five years ago. Which is the real Boris? Eurosceptic or Euro-enthusiast?

    Or does he just have a tendency to make whatever noises are most likely to help him edge further up the greasy poll?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,000
    I almost never get to hear PMQs but today I was driving back from Livingston Sheriff Court and heard the whole thing.

    Corbyn was just absolutely shocking. He scored no points at all and Cameron just knocked him about at will. Ed was never close to being as bad as that. Surely he is not normally as bad as that. If I was a Labour MP with a majority of less than 10K I would be seriously concerned.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,357
    On topic, it won't be JRM for any number of reasons. It will either be Farage or a member of the cabinet. There isn't anyone else of sufficient authority to lead them. A senior and respected ex-cabinet minister could in theory but in practice, who?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,850
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    No, anyone making that assessment is guessing. If so, why not wait until the ink is dry? What does he gain from declaring now? It will also damage his standing with the members for next Tory leader.

    I've never bought into the idea that Boris is a BOOer, in fact I don't think he differs from Cameron on anything very much (other than the merits of Boris Johnson as a future PM!). It's speculation of course, but my guess is that he is declaring now because it would damage his chances more to be hyped up as prominent Leaver, and then to disappoint the Leave camp in the Conservative Party nearer the time. His calculation is more likely to be that Remain will win, he's on balance likely to favour Remain anyway, so he'll want to position himself as a serious candidate for the post-Cameron, post-referendum world.

    As it happens, I don't particularly rate his chances, but he could get a juicy Cabinet post. I expect he'd rather fancy Foreign Sec.
    I sort of think the opposite. That if the Conservatives had gone into opposition he'd be a strong favourite but in Government he has very little chance given he has no ministerial experience.

    Osborne is virtually certain to make the final two. Only a big beast could beat him but the one chance Boris might have had (opportunistically) to beat him would be if he came out strongly for Leave.

    But perhaps he knows that might not be the only one flying that flag and, if he does it anyway, he's unlikely to be offered a big cabinet job before Cameron retires further weakening his credibility and chances.

    Too much of a gamble.

    He's been offered something now for his support, and he's gone through the thinking above. Otherwise, he'd have waited just another 8 weeks to see the outcome of the renegotiation and then made his decision then.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,830
    edited January 2016
    AlastairMeeks said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    This is worth reading to understand what might be going on:

    http://www.spectator.co.uk/2015/10/is-theresa-may-gearing-up-to-lead-the-eu-no-campaign/

    I've expected for some time that Boris Johnson will campaign for Remain and Theresa May will campaign for Leave.
    She is ambitious enough. And I think she has the guts to stand down from the cabinet - of her own volition - so that she can give it her full attention.

    But I'm not sure she's a winner.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    The LEAVERs need someone from a BME background, to outflank any possible accusations of racism and/or bigotry.

    Someone who has a deep-seated love and appreciation of the Great British Railway network.

    Someone who thinks, unequivocally, that English is far and away the best language in the world.

    Bring back the old railway liveries, and uniforms for taxi drivers!
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Point of pedantry, isn't Eton a school near Windsor?

    The postal address is Windsor, the post code Slough. Had to amend an Act of Parliament...
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 63,850
    edited January 2016
    rcs1000 said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    This is worth reading to understand what might be going on:

    http://www.spectator.co.uk/2015/10/is-theresa-may-gearing-up-to-lead-the-eu-no-campaign/

    I've expected for some time that Boris Johnson will campaign for Remain and Theresa May will campaign for Leave.
    She is ambitious enough. And I think she has the guts to stand down from the cabinet - of her own volition - so that she can give it her full attention.

    But I'm not sure she's a winner.
    May will get the 80+ BOO'er votes and probably another 20-30 other MPs if she goes for Leave. She'd have a very good chance of winning the members vote too.

    Incidentally, a dyed-in-the-wool Leftie friend of mine asked who I thought would be the next Tory leader on Saturday night. No great reaction to any of the big names.. Until I mentioned May.

    She wrinkled her nose in disgust and said she'd be just another Thatcher.

    I don't think she understood that to me (and many other Tory members) that is not exactly off-putting.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    I cannot see why Spurs are odds on to win tonight. Our reserves drew on Sunday after a dodgy Spurs penalty and now we are putting out the first team. 4.75 on a Leicester win seems rather long, particularly with Vardy fit again.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,197
    edited January 2016
    DavidL said:

    I almost never get to hear PMQs but today I was driving back from Livingston Sheriff Court and heard the whole thing.

    Corbyn was just absolutely shocking. He scored no points at all and Cameron just knocked him about at will. Ed was never close to being as bad as that. Surely he is not normally as bad as that. If I was a Labour MP with a majority of less than 10K I would be seriously concerned.

    The best one was when JJ read out Linda from London question about how the horrible Tories and their horrid bedroom tax will mean she can't survive or move when she retires....

    Cameron...spare room subsidy doesn't apply to retired people...

    Taxi for JJ...Where to...US Embassy for a CAGE protest.
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    edited January 2016
    Pong said:

    Boris has calculated leave don't have much of a chance.

    I did point out leave was value @ 1.6 - it's now 1.46 & still value.

    Should be ~1.2

    I strongly believe a single person played a large part in bringing those odds down.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,739
    Speedy said:

    I think that no one will lead the Leave campaign.
    There will be 2-3 different Leave campaigns, all with their own leader.

    For certain purposes, like spending limits, airtime and free mailouts, there can be only one.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    edited January 2016
    rcs1000 said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    This is worth reading to understand what might be going on:

    http://www.spectator.co.uk/2015/10/is-theresa-may-gearing-up-to-lead-the-eu-no-campaign/

    I've expected for some time that Boris Johnson will campaign for Remain and Theresa May will campaign for Leave.
    She is ambitious enough. And I think she has the guts to stand down from the cabinet - of her own volition - so that she can give it her full attention.

    But I'm not sure she's a winner.
    It's her best shot at the top spot, even if it is odds against.

    Put another way, if she doesn't do this, she isn't all that fussed about becoming Prime Minister or Conservative party leader and bets should be placed accordingly.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,830
    Casino_Royale said:

    rcs1000 said:

    AlastairMeeks said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    This is worth reading to understand what might be going on:

    http://www.spectator.co.uk/2015/10/is-theresa-may-gearing-up-to-lead-the-eu-no-campaign/

    I've expected for some time that Boris Johnson will campaign for Remain and Theresa May will campaign for Leave.
    She is ambitious enough. And I think she has the guts to stand down from the cabinet - of her own volition - so that she can give it her full attention.

    But I'm not sure she's a winner.
    May will get the 80+ BOO'er votes and probably another 20-30 other MPs if she goes for Leave. She'd have a very good chance of winning the members vote too.

    Incidentally, a dyed-in-the-wool Leftie friend of mine asked who I thought would be the next Tory leader on Saturday night. No great reaction to any of the big names.. Until I mentioned May.

    She wrinkled her nose in disgust and said she'd be just another Thatcher.

    I don't think she understood that to me (and many other Tory members) that is not exactly off-putting.
    I meant, I don't think she can lead Out to victory. And, believe me, she's no Margaret Thatcher.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,830
    Could I take out a 30 second slot on ITV and air a Euro referendum advert?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,197
    Oxford University students who don’t like Cecil Rhodes should 'think about being educated elsewhere', says chancellor

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/educationnews/12096928/Oxford-University-students-who-dont-like-Cecil-Rhodes-should-think-about-being-educated-elsewhere-says-chancellor.html

    Kick right in the knackers...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 86,197
    And why I never bet on cricket anymore...

    South African cricket braced for huge match-fixing scandal after evidence of corruption in Ram Slam T20

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/sport/cricket/international/southafrica/12097971/South-African-cricket-braced-for-huge-match-fixing-scandal-after-evidence-of-corruption-in-Ram-Slam-T20.html
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    rcs1000 said:

    Could I take out a 30 second slot on ITV and air a Euro referendum advert?

    Talk to your sister.
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052
    As a betting man, I can't believe Mike would put money on JMR leading the Outers. JMR would kill the campaign stone dead among the 95% of the country who can't relate to him.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,196
    In my opinion, the side that will win will be the side that makes people worry about their opponent's proposed 'future' the most. In addition, 'Leave' will need someone able to successfully put the boot into Cameron - to try and do it whilst using respectful kid gloves when talking about Cameron and his 'negotiation' will be extremely difficult.

  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    foxinsoxuk said:

    I cannot see why Spurs are odds on to win tonight. Our reserves drew on Sunday after a dodgy Spurs penalty and now we are putting out the first team. 4.75 on a Leicester win seems rather long, particularly with Vardy fit again.

    It was Spurs reserves as well.
This discussion has been closed.

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