politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Walrun Phil says the Syria vote could decide the LAB succes
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To clarify - 'today' was 2/9/13......
I know nothing of Scottish politics, but it will be interesting to see how the SNP's stance plays out up there.0 -
This is pretty funny...taffys said:I know nothing of Scottish politics, but it will be interesting to see how the SNP's stance plays out up there.
@JournoStephen: "Scotland’s MPs were evenly divided. Mundell and Carmichael supported air strikes while Murray and Sturgeon opposed" https://t.co/YKNd6Vka3A
@JournoStephen: These people are allowed to vote. https://t.co/TRwgKwIEl30 -
A senior Labour MP is being investigated by the party after allegedly telling a party rival 'f**k you' because he is planning to back bombing ISIS in Syria.
Clive Lewis has been reported to the party’s chief whip after he swore at fellow Labour MP John Woodcock (pictured) during a row last night.
The pair are believed to have clashed in a Westminster corridor with Lewis, Mr Corbyn's energy spokesman saying: 'You want to start this, we’ll finish it, so f**k you'.
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3344070/Labour-s-traitor-list-Corbyn-tries-call-bullies-anti-war-supporters-plotting-kick-66-MPs-backed-bombing-ISIS-Syria.html
Charming...Lewis will probably claim Woodcock was being racialist, given previous form.0 -
Rapturously, no doubt. They can do no wrong with the voters at present, whatever the issue, even if a poll says they are going against the grain.taffys said:To clarify - 'today' was 2/9/13......
I know nothing of Scottish politics, but it will be interesting to see how the SNP's stance plays out up there.0 -
I can't remember exactly what I wrote but I did start with a lay of Labour at 1.09 :-) I've somehow managed to turn that into a modest expected loss, having backed UKIP as short as 3.05 ! Paris has been something of an accelerant (not a game-changer in itself).isam said:Regrding Oldham and expectation management FPT
When the by election was announced, no one on here, including Antifrank, Richard Nabavi, Tissue Price, Pong, Pulpstar, ie the well regarded betting thinkers, as well as myself, thought it would be anything other than an easy Labour win
As it stands the opinion poll (Westminster VI) ratings for Labour and UKIP are around the same level as they were when Labour won by 33% in May. There should be no real reason to ecpect anything other than a comfy Labour win
The problem is, in a fragile betting market the outsider has been backed and the favourite was unsteady, and people will use the fact that UKIP went 8/1>3/1 as an excuse to brand it a big failure if they don't almost win
I would not be surprised at all to see UKIP win tonight.
On topic, I mostly agree with the opening poster; the move on Benn doesn't make sense. But Lisa Nandy is rather better than "continuity Corbyn".0 -
£985 up on Sadiq at Evens by the way on Betfair, 53-47 ahead of Zac in a poll.
Zac at 2.22
Small actuarial risk but a nice return if anyone wants it.0 -
Lol you must have messed up somewhereTissue_Price said:
I can't remember exactly what I wrote but I did start with a lay of Labour at 1.09 :-) I've somehow managed to turn that into a modest expected loss, having backed UKIP as short as 3.05 !
I started off backing Labour at 1-6 and then 2-9, am on UKIP now at 6-1 for £20 in the round now.0 -
An apparently genuine tweet from the woman on DP earlier
@NancyTaaffe: #bbcqt our food is corrupted by Capitalism.
Yeah, she's going to oust Stella...0 -
Benn would have to be crowned without consulting the membership anyway and on most issues he is soft left so could not really be a candidate if the right. Given Burnham voted against airstrikes and came second in September and is Shadow Home Secretary while Starmer is not even in the Shadow Cabinet he may also try again as David Davis almost did on the Tory side in 2003 after losing out to IDS in 2001. Starmer also backed Burnham for the leadership so could back him again0
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She will be on the QT panel next week then....Scott_P said:An apparently genuine tweet from the woman on DP earlier
@NancyTaaffe: #bbcqt our food is corrupted by Capitalism.
Yeah, she's going to oust Stella...0 -
I was wondering what she was looking at during her DP stint - cue cards? Or was there a giant spider just out of shot?Scott_P said:
An apparently genuine tweet from the woman on DP earlier
@NancyTaaffe: #bbcqt our food is corrupted by Capitalism.
Yeah, she's going to oust Stella...0 -
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Look what's winning Oldham for Labour according to the Times....Pulpstar said:0 -
You have to give the Russians some serious credit....their propaganda project "RussiaWorks" has some seriously slick video.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5CB7uyu2pF00 -
@isam If UKIP manage a swing of 10% or more tonight, as currently seems likely, that should be seen as very impressive indeed. As you say, I was not expecting UKIP to come anywhere close at the outset of this campaign.0
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Factor in polling under cooking Cons, Khandidate Khan, the Caliphate of Corbyn and sprinkle with individual voter registrations and Zak will smoke it.Pulpstar said:
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Technically, the unstable equilibrium would be when the book's balanced on one edge. A nudge either way will produce an acceleration away. When it's standing upright, it's a stable (if fragile) equilibrium. I've seen the same concept in economics.weejonnie said:
Hence why I called it "positive feedback". In engineering/ science positive feedback is a bad thing as it means that the results of a system leaving a state of equilibrium mean that the state is pushed further away from equilibrium. To give a simple example: if you pull a spring, then the restorative force pulls it back - that is -ve feedback. If you balance a book upright and push it over enough then the torque exerted by gravity exacerbates that falling over. (The status when the book is upright is known as unstable equilibrium).david_herdson said:
And the more moderate members leave,the harder it will be for those remaining to regain control.weejonnie said:It's going to be academic - Labour is now in a positive feedback loop of left-wing extremism. One key fact is that the Corbyn supporters are now so radicalised that they will not recognise the slump in the polls for what it is - it will all be the negative effects of the Blairites, and if they can get rid of them then they will do so much better. I'm not a betting man but it will become apparent that for many MPs it is going to be better to jump than be pushed. Once they realise that there is no chance of them being re-selected for 2020 then they will have no alternative.
In this case, I completely agree. There is a positive / accelerating feedback loop which will drive out a whole swathe of moderates. The extent to which there's a counter-force will depend on how quickly the radicals become disillusioned and how quickly Labour reaches a point where most of the moderates who could be forced out have been.0 -
Starmer also had a "normal" job. Jarvis [ though no one knows his background other than he fought in Iraq ] blew it last night.
Baron, from the Tories, has gone up in my estimation. Angus Robertson continues to impress.
Two non-bombers surprised me given the Labour rebellion. Rachel Reeves and Kate Hoey.
Jack Dromey and Harriet split the household votes.0 -
How will he cope now on just £180k a year and £6.5 million pension pot...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/bbc/12030859/Alan-Yentob-steps-down-as-BBC-executive.html0 -
Many people will resign from the Labour Party if that s.o.b is made leader.HYUFD said:Benn would have to be crowned without consulting the membership anyway and on most issues he is soft left so could not really be a candidate if the right. Given Burnham voted against airstrikes and came second in September and is Shadow Home Secretary while Starmer is not even in the Shadow Cabinet he may also try again as David Davis almost did on the Tory side in 2003 after losing out to IDS in 2001. Starmer also backed Burnham for the leadership so could back him again
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Indeed, a very good friend once 'unfriended' me because I had the temerity once (in his near constant stream of political posts on his FB page) to challenge some of his 'facts'.philiph said:Mental note to self: Don't post politics on facebook.
It is an extraordinary medium for people who wish to make an amaurotic cyclops look to be a binocular visionary. They will only look one way and countenance no other conceptual or factual position.
We have since patched up, and agreed not to address politics via FB (in person we talk policy not politics very often, and find much more agreement).0 -
Me neither, I said we were a 25/1 shot. People talk about Paris in relation to Oldham but I think that's glib, 1000s of people don't base their vote around maniacs overseas.AlastairMeeks said:@isam If UKIP manage a swing of 10% or more tonight, as currently seems likely, that should be seen as very impressive indeed. As you say, I was not expecting UKIP to come anywhere close at the outset of this campaign.
The problems for Labour are far reaching, they'll win this and celebrate, the usual sources will poke fun at Ukip, but with an unpopular leader, no funds and a hostile message Ukip are doing fine thanks, despite people portraying otherwise.
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PB poll has a Labour win in Oldham by 3.56% and the Lost Deposits on a knife-edge to disprove their name.0
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which one?surbiton said:
Many people will resign from the Labour Party if that s.o.b is made leader.HYUFD said:Benn would have to be crowned without consulting the membership anyway and on most issues he is soft left so could not really be a candidate if the right. Given Burnham voted against airstrikes and came second in September and is Shadow Home Secretary while Starmer is not even in the Shadow Cabinet he may also try again as David Davis almost did on the Tory side in 2003 after losing out to IDS in 2001. Starmer also backed Burnham for the leadership so could back him again
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What are you smoking ?Dixie said:Oldham is highly likely to be a Labour win.
Turnout will be approx 40% so clearly if half of Labour GE voters won't vote Labour then that doesn't mean a loss.
Turnout down a third, voters down a third. Labour got 23,000 at GE.
Expect that to be halved - 12,000 at most.
GE turnout was approx 42,000. Expect 28,000 turnout.
Therefore likely Labour to poll 42%.
Everything I am hearing says UKIp can't get to 42%. That said, a third of people make their mind up on the day so who knows.
From a Tory prospective, we are looking for a 3.5% swing minimum. That would continue the average since GE across all election. And if continued, that would ensure a Tory London Mayor, More London Assembly Members, parity with Labour in Scotland and Labour to lose majority in Wales Assembly. If Labour share of vote is more than 27% higher than Tory then reds have done well. if lower, Tories happy.0 -
I'm rabidly anti the licence fee, the likes of Yentob is partially the reason. If the licence fee is scrapped, what happens to the Ponzi scheme that is the BBC pension fund?FrancisUrquhart said:How will he cope now on just £180k a year and £6.5 million pension pot...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/bbc/12030859/Alan-Yentob-steps-down-as-BBC-executive.html
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@ianbremmer ·
Where there are guns, there are shootings.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CVTeiLtU8AAIvxp.jpg
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Re: which bit?surbiton said:
What are you smoking ?Dixie said:Oldham is highly likely to be a Labour win.
Turnout will be approx 40% so clearly if half of Labour GE voters won't vote Labour then that doesn't mean a loss.
Turnout down a third, voters down a third. Labour got 23,000 at GE.
Expect that to be halved - 12,000 at most.
GE turnout was approx 42,000. Expect 28,000 turnout.
Therefore likely Labour to poll 42%.
Everything I am hearing says UKIp can't get to 42%. That said, a third of people make their mind up on the day so who knows.
From a Tory prospective, we are looking for a 3.5% swing minimum. That would continue the average since GE across all election. And if continued, that would ensure a Tory London Mayor, More London Assembly Members, parity with Labour in Scotland and Labour to lose majority in Wales Assembly. If Labour share of vote is more than 27% higher than Tory then reds have done well. if lower, Tories happy.0 -
z
85% of Americans have guns?AlastairMeeks said:@ianbremmer ·
Where there are guns, there are shootings.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CVTeiLtU8AAIvxp.jpg
I guess that is skewed by some people owning several as it is guns per 100?0 -
So the USA does have most guns, by some margin.AlastairMeeks said:@ianbremmer ·
Where there are guns, there are shootings.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CVTeiLtU8AAIvxp.jpg0 -
Maybe but he is clearly trying to widen his appeal to Corbynites in case Corbyn is toppledsurbiton said:
Many people will resign from the Labour Party if that s.o.b is made leader.HYUFD said:Benn would have to be crowned without consulting the membership anyway and on most issues he is soft left so could not really be a candidate if the right. Given Burnham voted against airstrikes and came second in September and is Shadow Home Secretary while Starmer is not even in the Shadow Cabinet he may also try again as David Davis almost did on the Tory side in 2003 after losing out to IDS in 2001. Starmer also backed Burnham for the leadership so could back him again
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True, but they do base their votes on whether the leader of a party appears to say that the police shouldn't shoot maniacs who are rampaging around UK cities with AK47s, and that will certainly have helped UKIP (or at least damaged Labour) in Oldham. Probably not enough for UKIP to win, especially (as isam says) in view of the highish Asian vote in the constituency, but still enough to depress the Labour vote significantly.blackburn63 said:People talk about Paris in relation to Oldham but I think that's glib, 1000s of people don't base their vote around maniacs overseas.
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Hardly matters. It's a price the majority of the american people are clearly happy to bear, or else not accept as truth (and if they haven't accepted it already, they never will).AlastairMeeks said:@ianbremmer ·
Where there are guns, there are shootings.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CVTeiLtU8AAIvxp.jpg0 -
Agreed on everything except the last sentence. The next leader will come from the "firm left" , Kinnock-type.AlastairMeeks said:Excellent article by Wulfrun Phil. In no particular order, my view is as follows:
1) The Labour electorate are decidedly against bombing in Syria and for a fair chunk of members this is a vote-changing matter in any leadership election.
2) The Labour electorate's hearts are on the left.
3) They are not all or even mainly Militant entryists. They are open to supporting any candidate with a clear and positive prospectus. They have not been offered one by any Labour politician other than Jeremy Corbyn since the election. Hilary Benn did so yesterday, so it is possible.
4) Most of the short-priced candidates are ridiculously short. That in turn means that there is value in longer priced candidates.
Keir Starmer has a good name for this electorate and a decent back story. Whether that's enough, time will tell. He's probably fair value at 16/1.
For myself, I still feel that the next leader will come from the decidedly left wing of the party. Jeremy Corbyn won't test the idea of a leftwing leader to destruction.
Cooper has burnt her boat. I did not realise she was so right wing.0 -
Astonishingly that seems to be an understatement if Wikipedia is to be believed:isam said:z
85% of Americans have guns?AlastairMeeks said:@ianbremmer ·
Where there are guns, there are shootings.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CVTeiLtU8AAIvxp.jpg
I guess that is skewed by some people owning several as it is guns per 100?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Number_of_guns_per_capita_by_country0 -
Scott_P said:
@MShapland: Been blocked, but for prosterity someone who proports to be a Corbyn supporter saying a Labour MP is worse than ISIS https://t.co/kHRx2oSTyX
Well, today I have learnt what a 'furry' is. Never too old ...0 -
Surely this lists of betting favorites at this point in the game are similar to US polls early in the election cycle - little more than name recognition tests.AlastairMeeks said:Excellent article by Wulfrun Phil. In no particular order, my view is as follows:
1) The Labour electorate are decidedly against bombing in Syria and for a fair chunk of members this is a vote-changing matter in any leadership election.
2) The Labour electorate's hearts are on the left.
3) They are not all or even mainly Militant entryists. They are open to supporting any candidate with a clear and positive prospectus. They have not been offered one by any Labour politician other than Jeremy Corbyn since the election. Hilary Benn did so yesterday, so it is possible.
4) Most of the short-priced candidates are ridiculously short. That in turn means that there is value in longer priced candidates.
Keir Starmer has a good name for this electorate and a decent back story. Whether that's enough, time will tell. He's probably fair value at 16/1.
For myself, I still feel that the next leader will come from the decidedly left wing of the party. Jeremy Corbyn won't test the idea of a leftwing leader to destruction.0 -
Just to make it clear the "s.o.b" was meant for Benn and not Burnham. Burnham will never win the election because, as always, he prevaricates. Even yesterday, he tried to please both sides by saying he would have voted for bombing but changed his mind after Cameron's speech.HYUFD said:
Maybe but he is clearly trying to widen his appeal to Corbynites in case Corbyn is toppledsurbiton said:
Many people will resign from the Labour Party if that s.o.b is made leader.HYUFD said:Benn would have to be crowned without consulting the membership anyway and on most issues he is soft left so could not really be a candidate if the right. Given Burnham voted against airstrikes and came second in September and is Shadow Home Secretary while Starmer is not even in the Shadow Cabinet he may also try again as David Davis almost did on the Tory side in 2003 after losing out to IDS in 2001. Starmer also backed Burnham for the leadership so could back him again
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I believe approx. 50% of Americans own guns.AlastairMeeks said:
Astonishingly that seems to be an understatement if Wikipedia is to be believed:isam said:z
85% of Americans have guns?AlastairMeeks said:@ianbremmer ·
Where there are guns, there are shootings.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CVTeiLtU8AAIvxp.jpg
I guess that is skewed by some people owning several as it is guns per 100?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Number_of_guns_per_capita_by_country
The rest is the skew for people owing many.0 -
I believe approx. 50% of Americans own guns.
Owning a gun is one thing. Owning an assault rifle is something else.0 -
So it appears the Fifa officials arrested were at the same hotel their colleagues were arrested at earlier in the year. I'd stay away in future.0
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Benn.dugarbandier said:
which one?surbiton said:
Many people will resign from the Labour Party if that s.o.b is made leader.HYUFD said:Benn would have to be crowned without consulting the membership anyway and on most issues he is soft left so could not really be a candidate if the right. Given Burnham voted against airstrikes and came second in September and is Shadow Home Secretary while Starmer is not even in the Shadow Cabinet he may also try again as David Davis almost did on the Tory side in 2003 after losing out to IDS in 2001. Starmer also backed Burnham for the leadership so could back him again
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That's interesting. Would you mind expanding on "firm left" a bit? Are you referring to Kinnock's famously robust party management or something else?surbiton said:
Agreed on everything except the last sentence. The next leader will come from the "firm left" , Kinnock-type.AlastairMeeks said:Excellent article by Wulfrun Phil. In no particular order, my view is as follows:
1) The Labour electorate are decidedly against bombing in Syria and for a fair chunk of members this is a vote-changing matter in any leadership election.
2) The Labour electorate's hearts are on the left.
3) They are not all or even mainly Militant entryists. They are open to supporting any candidate with a clear and positive prospectus. They have not been offered one by any Labour politician other than Jeremy Corbyn since the election. Hilary Benn did so yesterday, so it is possible.
4) Most of the short-priced candidates are ridiculously short. That in turn means that there is value in longer priced candidates.
Keir Starmer has a good name for this electorate and a decent back story. Whether that's enough, time will tell. He's probably fair value at 16/1.
For myself, I still feel that the next leader will come from the decidedly left wing of the party. Jeremy Corbyn won't test the idea of a leftwing leader to destruction.
Cooper has burnt her boat. I did not realise she was so right wing.0 -
You'd have thought that the US would at least have begun to tackle the availability of automatic weapons, which have no role in peacetime other than for mass killings and gang warfare, but they quite deliberately don't want to do even that. Up to them, of course - they seem to prefer it that way.0
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Don;t many Americans live in small towns or isolated hamlets?
Local law enforcement isn't exactly down the street.0 -
Talking about name recognition, will the Trump bubble actually pop ?MTimT said:
Surely this lists of betting favorites at this point in the game are similar to US polls early in the election cycle - little more than name recognition tests.AlastairMeeks said:Excellent article by Wulfrun Phil. In no particular order, my view is as follows:
1) The Labour electorate are decidedly against bombing in Syria and for a fair chunk of members this is a vote-changing matter in any leadership election.
2) The Labour electorate's hearts are on the left.
3) They are not all or even mainly Militant entryists. They are open to supporting any candidate with a clear and positive prospectus. They have not been offered one by any Labour politician other than Jeremy Corbyn since the election. Hilary Benn did so yesterday, so it is possible.
4) Most of the short-priced candidates are ridiculously short. That in turn means that there is value in longer priced candidates.
Keir Starmer has a good name for this electorate and a decent back story. Whether that's enough, time will tell. He's probably fair value at 16/1.
For myself, I still feel that the next leader will come from the decidedly left wing of the party. Jeremy Corbyn won't test the idea of a leftwing leader to destruction.0 -
Rowing back furiously.blackburn63 said:
Me neither, I said we were a 25/1 shot. People talk about Paris in relation to Oldham but I think that's glib, 1000s of people don't base their vote around maniacs overseas.AlastairMeeks said:@isam If UKIP manage a swing of 10% or more tonight, as currently seems likely, that should be seen as very impressive indeed. As you say, I was not expecting UKIP to come anywhere close at the outset of this campaign.
The problems for Labour are far reaching, they'll win this and celebrate, the usual sources will poke fun at Ukip, but with an unpopular leader, no funds and a hostile message Ukip are doing fine thanks, despite people portraying otherwise.0 -
This only proved beyond doubt that Hilary Benn is worth ten of Alex Salmond. Indeed, such is the former SNP leader is devaluing himself at such a rapid rate that Hilary Benn will soon be worth twenty Alex Salmonds.
http://www.capx.co/hilary-benn-is-worth-ten-alex-salmonds/0 -
I don't see why that should have any effect on the Sunderland plant whatsoever. Nissan won't leave the European market even if they "break up" with Renault.flightpath01 said:From The Times
''Nissan alliance with Renault under threat
The future of Britain’s largest car plant, Nissan in Sunderland, is under threat in an increasingly toxic row between the Japanese company and the French government.
More than 7,000 jobs are at risk, as well as hundreds more at Nissan’s design facilities in Paddington, central London, and its engineering centre in Cranfield, Bedfordshire, should Paris go ahead with plans to take control of more than 30 per cent of Renault.''0 -
Watching Comilla vs Chittagon in the BPL t20, the fashion for Bangladeshi girls in the crowd to "white up" using face powder is quite extraordinary
They look like 18th Century Brits! Or the actors in BlackAdder the Third
Stark contrast with English girls who pile on the fake tan
Middle ground seems the aim.. lucky mixed race!
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thanks for the clarificationsurbiton said:
Benn.dugarbandier said:
which one?surbiton said:
Many people will resign from the Labour Party if that s.o.b is made leader.HYUFD said:Benn would have to be crowned without consulting the membership anyway and on most issues he is soft left so could not really be a candidate if the right. Given Burnham voted against airstrikes and came second in September and is Shadow Home Secretary while Starmer is not even in the Shadow Cabinet he may also try again as David Davis almost did on the Tory side in 2003 after losing out to IDS in 2001. Starmer also backed Burnham for the leadership so could back him again
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Rowing back from what?surbiton said:
Rowing back furiously.blackburn63 said:
Me neither, I said we were a 25/1 shot. People talk about Paris in relation to Oldham but I think that's glib, 1000s of people don't base their vote around maniacs overseas.AlastairMeeks said:@isam If UKIP manage a swing of 10% or more tonight, as currently seems likely, that should be seen as very impressive indeed. As you say, I was not expecting UKIP to come anywhere close at the outset of this campaign.
The problems for Labour are far reaching, they'll win this and celebrate, the usual sources will poke fun at Ukip, but with an unpopular leader, no funds and a hostile message Ukip are doing fine thanks, despite people portraying otherwise.
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The percentage of Americans owning guns isn't equivalent to the number of guns per capta in the US. Gun nuts often have many. Either way the numbers show that it's dangerous, misguided and perverse.AlastairMeeks said:
Astonishingly that seems to be an understatement if Wikipedia is to be believed:isam said:z
85% of Americans have guns?AlastairMeeks said:@ianbremmer ·
Where there are guns, there are shootings.
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CVTeiLtU8AAIvxp.jpg
I guess that is skewed by some people owning several as it is guns per 100?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Number_of_guns_per_capita_by_country0 -
Insulting the father and the son, who would disagree, no doubt, on the current hot topicsurbiton said:
Benn.dugarbandier said:
which one?surbiton said:
Many people will resign from the Labour Party if that s.o.b is made leader.HYUFD said:Benn would have to be crowned without consulting the membership anyway and on most issues he is soft left so could not really be a candidate if the right. Given Burnham voted against airstrikes and came second in September and is Shadow Home Secretary while Starmer is not even in the Shadow Cabinet he may also try again as David Davis almost did on the Tory side in 2003 after losing out to IDS in 2001. Starmer also backed Burnham for the leadership so could back him again
Some going!!0 -
It amazes me about the apparent softness of some Labour MPs. Is it really "bullying" to be sent pictures of the aftermath of bombing, being called a "warmongerer" and that there's "blood on their hands"? That seems pretty par for the course given the subject matter. I guess MPs like living in their own isolated little bubble and don't like to be exposed to unpleasant opinions or the consequences of their actions. It's pathetic, frankly.
It continues to feel like there is a major disconnect between the Labour base and careerist Blairite Labour MPs.
In my view, the ultimate long-term failure of Blair-ism is that New Labour introduced very few left-wing policies, it resulted in weak careerist relatively right-wing Labour MPs, and ultimately made the current hard-right Conservative government appear moderate. In almost all ways, this current government has policies far more extreme than Thatcher ever did, and she was hardly a moderate herself.0 -
Not an explosives expert, but from the damage, that seems to have been a pretty small bomb.FrancisUrquhart said:You have to give the Russians some serious credit....their propaganda project "RussiaWorks" has some seriously slick video.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5CB7uyu2pF00 -
Martin Kettle on Benn:
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/dec/03/hilary-benn-speech-syria-labour-mps-war0 -
http://www.capx.co/hilary-benn-is-worth-ten-alex-salmonds/Scott_P said:This only proved beyond doubt that Hilary Benn is worth ten of Alex Salmond. Indeed, such is the former SNP leader is devaluing himself at such a rapid rate that Hilary Benn will soon be worth twenty Alex Salmonds.
Marvellous to see PB Tories' and Iain Martin fanboys' outrage on behalf of the Benn family. It's eerily reminiscent of their disgust at the excoriation of Ed Miliband's dead father.0 -
On what appears to be an empty factory. Way to go Vlad!MTimT said:
Not an explosives expert, but from the damage, that seems to have been a pretty small bomb.FrancisUrquhart said:You have to give the Russians some serious credit....their propaganda project "RussiaWorks" has some seriously slick video.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5CB7uyu2pF00 -
Labour 1/8 with Paddy now, I assume that's to do with postal votes being counted, far too early for exit polls0
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This is great from Stephen Bush http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk/2015/12/why-oldham-west-could-be-just-start-labour-s-worries
Meet Clive. He is retired, a devoted monarchist – he has a mug commemorating the birth of Prince George – is worried about immigration, has always voted Labour, but is worried about Jeremy Corbyn. As a result, he voted for Ukip in the Oldham by-election. His postal vote arrived the day the Labour leader announced he was “not happy” with “shoot to kill”.
Meet James. He voted Green at the last election. The only immigrant family he dislikes is the Windsors. If he could vote in Oldham, he would vote enthusiastically for Labour.
This, rather than shadow cabinet rows or unease in the parliamentary party, is the divide that is hurting Labour.0 -
Is it OK then for MPs to send in return videos of people being beheaded, burned alive and pushed off high buildings?Oliver_PB said:It amazes me about the apparent softness of some Labour MPs. Is it really "bullying" to be sent pictures of the aftermath of bombing, being called a "warmongerer" and that there's "blood on their hands"? That seems pretty par for the course given the subject matter. I guess MPs like living in their own isolated little bubble and don't like to be exposed to unpleasant opinions or the consequences of their actions. It's pathetic, frankly.
It continues to feel like there is a major disconnect between the Labour base and careerist Blairite Labour MPs.
In my view, the ultimate long-term failure of Blair-ism is that New Labour introduced very few left-wing policies, it resulted in weak careerist relatively right-wing Labour MPs, and ultimately made the current hard-right Conservative government appear moderate. In almost all ways, this current government has policies far more extreme than Thatcher ever did, and she was hardly a moderate herself.0 -
All part of the kinder, gentler politicsOliver_PB said:It amazes me about the apparent softness of some Labour MPs. Is it really "bullying" to be sent pictures of the aftermath of bombing, being called a "warmongerer" and that there's "blood on their hands"? That seems pretty par for the course given the subject matter. I guess MPs like living in their own isolated little bubble and don't like to be exposed to unpleasant opinions or the consequences of their actions. It's pathetic, frankly.
It continues to feel like there is a major disconnect between the Labour base and careerist Blairite Labour MPs.
In my view, the ultimate long-term failure of Blair-ism is that New Labour introduced very few left-wing policies, it resulted in weak careerist relatively right-wing Labour MPs, and ultimately made the current hard-right Conservative government appear moderate. In almost all ways, this current government has policies far more extreme than Thatcher ever did, and she was hardly a moderate herself.0 -
http://www.rte.ie/news/2015/1009/733551-rural-crime/
Perhaps Americans want the right to protect themselves from the above. And why shouldn;t they??
0 -
How many girls in Islamic Bangladesh actually wear the hijab ?isam said:Watching Comilla vs Chittagon in the BPL t20, the fashion for Bangladeshi girls in the crowd to "white up" using face powder is quite extraordinary
They look like 18th Century Brits! Or the actors in BlackAdder the Third
Stark contrast with English girls who pile on the fake tan
Middle ground seems the aim.. lucky mixed race!
The whitening bit is the same stuff that the players use. To protect against the sun.0 -
It does not help that Benn is absolutely crap either.weejonnie said:It's going to be academic - Labour is now in a positive feedback loop of left-wing extremism. One key fact is that the Corbyn supporters are now so radicalised that they will not recognise the slump in the polls for what it is - it will all be the negative effects of the Blairites, and if they can get rid of them then they will do so much better. I'm not a betting man but it will become apparent that for many MPs it is going to be better to jump than be pushed. Once they realise that there is no chance of them being re-selected for 2020 then they will have no alternative.
0 -
Lying toerags, I see Ruth was stupid enough to try and chide Sturgeon for Tory Westminster cuts, they really are as thick as they make out , who could believe it.Scott_P said:
@neiledwardlovat: 2 YouGov sub samples in a row which have Scotland approving of air strikes in Syria.CarlottaVance said:AN independent Scotland would not have rejected the prospect of military intervention in Syria like the UK has done, Alex Salmond said today.
http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/syria-action-backed-under-independence-salmond-1-3071423#ixzz3tGLA2r28
To clarify - 'today' was 2/9/13......
https://t.co/GxBZUNcvHp
Yet the SNP say we don't.0 -
Its a night game hahahahasurbiton said:
How many girls in Islamic Bangladesh actually wear the hijab ?isam said:Watching Comilla vs Chittagon in the BPL t20, the fashion for Bangladeshi girls in the crowd to "white up" using face powder is quite extraordinary
They look like 18th Century Brits! Or the actors in BlackAdder the Third
Stark contrast with English girls who pile on the fake tan
Middle ground seems the aim.. lucky mixed race!
The whitening bit is the same stuff that the players use. To protect against the sun.
0 -
Will we be bombing Japan soonflightpath01 said:From The Times
''Nissan alliance with Renault under threat
The future of Britain’s largest car plant, Nissan in Sunderland, is under threat in an increasingly toxic row between the Japanese company and the French government.
More than 7,000 jobs are at risk, as well as hundreds more at Nissan’s design facilities in Paddington, central London, and its engineering centre in Cranfield, Bedfordshire, should Paris go ahead with plans to take control of more than 30 per cent of Renault.''0 -
lolisam said:
Its a night game hahahahasurbiton said:
How many girls in Islamic Bangladesh actually wear the hijab ?isam said:Watching Comilla vs Chittagon in the BPL t20, the fashion for Bangladeshi girls in the crowd to "white up" using face powder is quite extraordinary
They look like 18th Century Brits! Or the actors in BlackAdder the Third
Stark contrast with English girls who pile on the fake tan
Middle ground seems the aim.. lucky mixed race!
The whitening bit is the same stuff that the players use. To protect against the sun.0 -
I was absolutely sure it would, but I am beginning, like many in the GOP establishment, to have my doubts.Pulpstar said:
Talking about name recognition, will the Trump bubble actually pop ?MTimT said:
Surely this lists of betting favorites at this point in the game are similar to US polls early in the election cycle - little more than name recognition tests.AlastairMeeks said:Excellent article by Wulfrun Phil. In no particular order, my view is as follows:
1) The Labour electorate are decidedly against bombing in Syria and for a fair chunk of members this is a vote-changing matter in any leadership election.
2) The Labour electorate's hearts are on the left.
3) They are not all or even mainly Militant entryists. They are open to supporting any candidate with a clear and positive prospectus. They have not been offered one by any Labour politician other than Jeremy Corbyn since the election. Hilary Benn did so yesterday, so it is possible.
4) Most of the short-priced candidates are ridiculously short. That in turn means that there is value in longer priced candidates.
Keir Starmer has a good name for this electorate and a decent back story. Whether that's enough, time will tell. He's probably fair value at 16/1.
For myself, I still feel that the next leader will come from the decidedly left wing of the party. Jeremy Corbyn won't test the idea of a leftwing leader to destruction.
In my heart of hearts, I think it will come down to a slugfest between Rubio and Cruz, but I am worried and getting more so ...0 -
When did it start ?Slackbladder said:
lolisam said:
Its a night game hahahahasurbiton said:
How many girls in Islamic Bangladesh actually wear the hijab ?isam said:Watching Comilla vs Chittagon in the BPL t20, the fashion for Bangladeshi girls in the crowd to "white up" using face powder is quite extraordinary
They look like 18th Century Brits! Or the actors in BlackAdder the Third
Stark contrast with English girls who pile on the fake tan
Middle ground seems the aim.. lucky mixed race!
The whitening bit is the same stuff that the players use. To protect against the sun.
Virtually, the entire Pakistan and Sri Lankan team have turned up.0 -
The Yoons whining about Sturgeon quoting polls that support the SNP, then clutching Yougov sub samples to their flabby breasts. Hilarious!malcolmg said:
Lying toerags, I see Ruth was stupid enough to try and chide Sturgeon for Tory Westminster cuts, they really are as thick as they make out , who could believe it.Scott_P said:
@neiledwardlovat: 2 YouGov sub samples in a row which have Scotland approving of air strikes in Syria.CarlottaVance said:AN independent Scotland would not have rejected the prospect of military intervention in Syria like the UK has done, Alex Salmond said today.
http://www.scotsman.com/news/politics/syria-action-backed-under-independence-salmond-1-3071423#ixzz3tGLA2r28
To clarify - 'today' was 2/9/13......
https://t.co/GxBZUNcvHp
Yet the SNP say we don't.0 -
When I was in Burma it was virtually universal for women to have thick white cream on both cheeks and forehead. I was told that it was a traditional form of sunscreen. Quite possibly a similar tradition across the border in Chittagong.isam said:Watching Comilla vs Chittagon in the BPL t20, the fashion for Bangladeshi girls in the crowd to "white up" using face powder is quite extraordinary
They look like 18th Century Brits! Or the actors in BlackAdder the Third
Stark contrast with English girls who pile on the fake tan
Middle ground seems the aim.. lucky mixed race!
0 -
Toby Jug more likePlato_Says said:Several Corbynitwits called his dad Toby Benn.
Scott_P said:@DPJHodges: SNP members trying to use memory of his late father to attack Hilary Benn are revealing more about themselves than their target.
Like this guy...
@AdamBienkov: Alex Salmond says Hilary Benn's dad "would have been birling in his grave" if he heard his son's speech last night #lbc0 -
What channel?isam said:
Its a night game hahahahasurbiton said:
How many girls in Islamic Bangladesh actually wear the hijab ?isam said:Watching Comilla vs Chittagon in the BPL t20, the fashion for Bangladeshi girls in the crowd to "white up" using face powder is quite extraordinary
They look like 18th Century Brits! Or the actors in BlackAdder the Third
Stark contrast with English girls who pile on the fake tan
Middle ground seems the aim.. lucky mixed race!
The whitening bit is the same stuff that the players use. To protect against the sun.0 -
Can we have more articles by this contributor and fewer by the dire Don Brind please?0
-
Well, "kinder, gentler politics" is an inane, ridiculous notion.nigel4england said:
All part of the kinder, gentler politicsOliver_PB said:It amazes me about the apparent softness of some Labour MPs. Is it really "bullying" to be sent pictures of the aftermath of bombing, being called a "warmongerer" and that there's "blood on their hands"? That seems pretty par for the course given the subject matter. I guess MPs like living in their own isolated little bubble and don't like to be exposed to unpleasant opinions or the consequences of their actions. It's pathetic, frankly.
It continues to feel like there is a major disconnect between the Labour base and careerist Blairite Labour MPs.
In my view, the ultimate long-term failure of Blair-ism is that New Labour introduced very few left-wing policies, it resulted in weak careerist relatively right-wing Labour MPs, and ultimately made the current hard-right Conservative government appear moderate. In almost all ways, this current government has policies far more extreme than Thatcher ever did, and she was hardly a moderate herself.
I've long spoken about the left needing to resist their impulses to do holier-than-thou hand-wringing and take a long hard look towards how the right operates. Blair had the right idea in that regard.0 -
This is the lady I was talking about. Owner of the Comilla franchiseSlackbladder said:
lolisam said:
Its a night game hahahahasurbiton said:
How many girls in Islamic Bangladesh actually wear the hijab ?isam said:Watching Comilla vs Chittagon in the BPL t20, the fashion for Bangladeshi girls in the crowd to "white up" using face powder is quite extraordinary
They look like 18th Century Brits! Or the actors in BlackAdder the Third
Stark contrast with English girls who pile on the fake tan
Middle ground seems the aim.. lucky mixed race!
The whitening bit is the same stuff that the players use. To protect against the sun.
http://comillarkagoj.com/কুমিল্লা-ভিক্টোরিয়ান্স-5/nafisa-kamal/0 -
Premier Sport Sky 428nigel4england said:
What channel?isam said:
Its a night game hahahahasurbiton said:
How many girls in Islamic Bangladesh actually wear the hijab ?isam said:Watching Comilla vs Chittagon in the BPL t20, the fashion for Bangladeshi girls in the crowd to "white up" using face powder is quite extraordinary
They look like 18th Century Brits! Or the actors in BlackAdder the Third
Stark contrast with English girls who pile on the fake tan
Middle ground seems the aim.. lucky mixed race!
The whitening bit is the same stuff that the players use. To protect against the sun.0 -
isam said:
Watching Comilla vs Chittagon in the BPL t20, the fashion for Bangladeshi girls in the crowd to "white up" using face powder is quite extraordinary
They look like 18th Century Brits! Or the actors in BlackAdder the Third
Stark contrast with English girls who pile on the fake tan
Middle ground seems the aim.. lucky mixed race!
Surely the fashion is always what is most expensive to achieve. Hence in times when the 'common people' have to work outside and thus have a farmer's tan, being lilly white is considered fashionable. When flying to the Caribbean in winter is out of the ordinary person's budget, a full tan is fashionable. When skiing holidays are for only the snobs, raccoon tans are in. As the rabble become able to do all these things, the visible signs of doing them become less fashionable.
In the States, where enough people can afford to do virtually any activity that none of them are elitist, perhaps being thin is the new thing rather than a particular level of skin pigmentation - it seems to be the hardest to achieve
0 -
It started at night and its been raining on and off all day, leave it!surbiton said:
When did it start ?Slackbladder said:
lolisam said:
Its a night game hahahahasurbiton said:
How many girls in Islamic Bangladesh actually wear the hijab ?isam said:Watching Comilla vs Chittagon in the BPL t20, the fashion for Bangladeshi girls in the crowd to "white up" using face powder is quite extraordinary
They look like 18th Century Brits! Or the actors in BlackAdder the Third
Stark contrast with English girls who pile on the fake tan
Middle ground seems the aim.. lucky mixed race!
The whitening bit is the same stuff that the players use. To protect against the sun.
Virtually, the entire Pakistan and Sri Lankan team have turned up.0 -
http://www.capx.co/hilary-benn-is-worth-ten-alex-salmonds/Scott_P said:This only proved beyond doubt that Hilary Benn is worth ten of Alex Salmond. Indeed, such is the former SNP leader is devaluing himself at such a rapid rate that Hilary Benn will soon be worth twenty Alex Salmonds.
Oh how we laughed at the fools and their lapdogs0 -
@JoeWatts_: Another day, another Livingstone furore: Ken supports deselection challenges on LabMPs who voted for air strikes
https://t.co/VkqiaZcGnE0 -
Apparently the Tories are sending out Christmas cards showing Rudolph with his throat slit and spit roasted on the BBQOliver_PB said:
Well, "kinder, gentler politics" is an inane, ridiculous notion.nigel4england said:
All part of the kinder, gentler politicsOliver_PB said:It amazes me about the apparent softness of some Labour MPs. Is it really "bullying" to be sent pictures of the aftermath of bombing, being called a "warmongerer" and that there's "blood on their hands"? That seems pretty par for the course given the subject matter. I guess MPs like living in their own isolated little bubble and don't like to be exposed to unpleasant opinions or the consequences of their actions. It's pathetic, frankly.
It continues to feel like there is a major disconnect between the Labour base and careerist Blairite Labour MPs.
In my view, the ultimate long-term failure of Blair-ism is that New Labour introduced very few left-wing policies, it resulted in weak careerist relatively right-wing Labour MPs, and ultimately made the current hard-right Conservative government appear moderate. In almost all ways, this current government has policies far more extreme than Thatcher ever did, and she was hardly a moderate herself.
I've long spoken about the left needing to resist their impulses to do holier-than-thou hand-wringing and take a long hard look towards how the right operates. Blair had the right idea in that regard.0 -
£830m border watchlist system breaks down twice every week - and delivered 8yrs+ late
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/news/politics/article4630947.ece
0 -
LOL If you think the Cameron Tories are hard right, come spend some time in the States. They are all socialists, didn't you know?Oliver_PB said:It amazes me about the apparent softness of some Labour MPs. Is it really "bullying" to be sent pictures of the aftermath of bombing, being called a "warmongerer" and that there's "blood on their hands"? That seems pretty par for the course given the subject matter. I guess MPs like living in their own isolated little bubble and don't like to be exposed to unpleasant opinions or the consequences of their actions. It's pathetic, frankly.
It continues to feel like there is a major disconnect between the Labour base and careerist Blairite Labour MPs.
In my view, the ultimate long-term failure of Blair-ism is that New Labour introduced very few left-wing policies, it resulted in weak careerist relatively right-wing Labour MPs, and ultimately made the current hard-right Conservative government appear moderate. In almost all ways, this current government has policies far more extreme than Thatcher ever did, and she was hardly a moderate herself.0 -
I noted whilst travelling in China that young women there wanted to look as white as possible, umbrellas out in the sunshine was common place. Also the paler your skin the more money you tend to earn in Bollywood.0
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Oh how we laughed at the fools and their lapdogsmalcolmg said:
http://www.capx.co/hilary-benn-is-worth-ten-alex-salmonds/Scott_P said:This only proved beyond doubt that Hilary Benn is worth ten of Alex Salmond. Indeed, such is the former SNP leader is devaluing himself at such a rapid rate that Hilary Benn will soon be worth twenty Alex Salmonds.
Don't be so hard on your fellow Nats.0 -
A couple of years ago, I saw a great line about having "dinner party thin arms"
The ultimate in nouveau elite style.MTimT said:isam said:Watching Comilla vs Chittagon in the BPL t20, the fashion for Bangladeshi girls in the crowd to "white up" using face powder is quite extraordinary
They look like 18th Century Brits! Or the actors in BlackAdder the Third
Stark contrast with English girls who pile on the fake tan
Middle ground seems the aim.. lucky mixed race!
Surely the fashion is always what is most expensive to achieve. Hence in times when the 'common people' have to work outside and thus have a farmer's tan, being lilly white is considered fashionable. When flying to the Caribbean in winter is out of the ordinary person's budget, a full tan is fashionable. When skiing holidays are for only the snobs, raccoon tans are in. As the rabble become able to do all these things, the visible signs of doing them become less fashionable.
In the States, where enough people can afford to do virtually any activity that none of them are elitist, perhaps being thin is the new thing rather than a particular level of skin pigmentation - it seems to be the hardest to achieve0 -
I'm hugely in favour of allowing deselection and against mandatory re-selection. The idea that MPs can land in safe seats and effectively get jobs of life regardless of the views of the local or broader party membership is ridiculous.
If local party members feel strongly enough about bombing (or any other issue) that they want to replace their candidate over it then why shouldn't they be able to?0 -
Pulpstar said:
@MTimT
I think you'd be best off with Cruz, Rubio's "My Dad was a bartender" advert was ... annoying.
But a President Cruz is only a little scarier than a President Trump, and far less likely than President Any Other GOP Candidate. He is a vote loser for the all important Independents.0
