politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Syria – the big debate goes on
Comments
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It would be nice if the Kurds were rewarded for their courage and tenacity in the fight against IS by finally getting their own state.MTimT said:
I never thought it was such a bad idea when Biden suggested it. The big problem I foresaw was how to divvie up Iraq's oil revenues between the successor states in order to encourage a peaceful transition.JosiasJessop said:
I've slowly been heading this way, as anyone reading my posts on here for the last few years will have noticed. The biggest issues to my mind area:Danny565 said:Agreed. Although it will invite the tiresome talk of "colonialism", part of me does think the West needs to take it upon ourselves to redraw the map in that part of the world, into countries that will make for a more stable settlement in the long run.
1) Imposing it can be problematic, both in the short term and long term.
2) When a country splits in this manner, it can cause massive population movements.
For 1), we have to ask whether Sunni, Shia, Alawite and Kurd can be represented together by the same government. History has shown it is difficult, which is exactly why strongmen have been needed to run these countries, at the expense of periodic atrocities. *If* locals can be persuaded then the imposition need not be impossible - and it would have to be agreed locally.
For 2), we have already had massive population movements because of the civil war. That ship has mostly sailed.
Personally, I would try favouring a series of semi-autonomous regions rather than splitting the countr(y/ies) up into separate states, at least at first. This would lead to a similar situation to the Kurdish Regional Government in Iraq, except over the whole country. This federal approach might allow Syria and Iraq to remain as whole entities, whilst giving some autonomy to local populations. It might act as a pressure-relief valve on discontent.
It will also cost a lot of money. But at the end of the day, money will be much of the answer to keep the groups on our side or in check.
But, it was shat on from a great height, particularly by those who argued that Iraq must remain integral - I suspect argued to avoid recriminations of colonialism. I hate when we second guess ourselves out of doing the right thing. Take the hit and move on, it would have been less costly in the long run.0 -
On the other hand, having said what I did about Daesh earlier, this is very funny and makes some good points:
‘They pull a knife, you pull a gun. He shends one of yoursh to the hospital, you shend one of hish to the morgue.’ Thus Sean Connery in The Untouchables, explaining how you fight a war ‘Chicago-style’. How would you adapt that, do we think, for our collective response to the Paris attacks? ‘They pull a gun, you pull a hashtag. They send 132 of yours to the morgue, you start calling them a slightly rude name.’
http://new.spectator.co.uk/2015/11/daesh-sheesh/0 -
You could simply upgrade the graphics card. Would be quite a bit cheaper!JosiasJessop said:
Mr Llama, I have indeed downloaded it. Unfortunately when I specified my work PC (now my gaming PC) I gave it a very fast processor (needed for work) and a relatively low-class graphics card. When I first approached a planet it looked like a virus with spikes protruding into space; an update of the card drivers fixed that. But now when I land the planet's surface is odd, to say the least.HurstLlama said:
I am not going to suggest that you might be wrong, I merely point out that your idea of the end game doesn't seem to tie up very closely with what HMG is suggesting in Parliament this very afternoon.JosiasJessop said:
I thought (and might be wrong) it is to remove the threat from ISIS and alN in the short term, and in the long term to support the Vienna peace talks in working towards a transitional government that might be able to bring peace to Syria.
On more important matters: did you download the Elite:Horizons Beta and if so is it ny good?
Other people have seen these effects, and apparently they are being looked into. But in the meantime I'm considering getting a new PC specifically for gaming. Hopefully it will see me to at least season 5 of the game.
I might even try building one. I haven't done that for fifteen years though, and it costs more.
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The oil issue is one reason I think a federal solution might be more feasible than separate countries. Although AIUI the deal between the KRG and the Baghdad government over oil has recently broken down.MTimT said:
I never thought it was such a bad idea when Biden suggested it. The big problem I foresaw was how to divvie up Iraq's oil revenues between the successor states in order to encourage a peaceful transition.JosiasJessop said:
I've slowly been heading this way, as anyone reading my posts on here for the last few years will have noticed. The biggest issues to my mind area:Danny565 said:Agreed. Although it will invite the tiresome talk of "colonialism", part of me does think the West needs to take it upon ourselves to redraw the map in that part of the world, into countries that will make for a more stable settlement in the long run.
1) Imposing it can be problematic, both in the short term and long term.
2) When a country splits in this manner, it can cause massive population movements.
For 1), we have to ask whether Sunni, Shia, Alawite and Kurd can be represented together by the same government. History has shown it is difficult, which is exactly why strongmen have been needed to run these countries, at the expense of periodic atrocities. *If* locals can be persuaded then the imposition need not be impossible - and it would have to be agreed locally.
For 2), we have already had massive population movements because of the civil war. That ship has mostly sailed.
Personally, I would try favouring a series of semi-autonomous regions rather than splitting the countr(y/ies) up into separate states, at least at first. This would lead to a similar situation to the Kurdish Regional Government in Iraq, except over the whole country. This federal approach might allow Syria and Iraq to remain as whole entities, whilst giving some autonomy to local populations. It might act as a pressure-relief valve on discontent.
It will also cost a lot of money. But at the end of the day, money will be much of the answer to keep the groups on our side or in check.
But, it was shat on from a great height, particularly by those who argued that Iraq must remain integral - I suspect argued to avoid recriminations of colonialism. I hate when we second guess ourselves out of doing the right thing. Take the hit and move on, it would have been less costly in the long run.0 -
I've been thinking just this as the debate has worn on:
https://twitter.com/Robert___Harris/status/6721236583584235520 -
I think I am sitting in a small slice of the Venn Diagram - voted Corbyn, supporting today's motion and voting Leave in the referendum.0
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I love Alan Johnson's clear, cool contempt for the Corbynistas. He speaks for millions of current and former Labour voters, as well as many others, I suspect. It's such a shame he did not have the drive or ambition to go for the Labour leadership, and that people like him would have no chance in the Labour party Nick Palmer and his mates clearly have their hearts set on. .0
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Poor stuff from Burnham again I'm told.
I'm not entirely sure that Corbyn was Labour's worst outcome for leader. Burnham seems keen to demonstrate that he would have been much worse. Such a mixed bag though - he has lots of good moments. I guess I'd conclude that he rather lacks self-confidence.
Interesting watching Twigg - the background was Lammy and Zippy. Neither of them seem to be the UK's Obama.
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Where can one watch the debate - later?
Thank you.0 -
That is very, very good.Casino_Royale said:On the other hand, having said what I did about Daesh earlier, this is very funny and makes some good points:
‘They pull a knife, you pull a gun. He shends one of yoursh to the hospital, you shend one of hish to the morgue.’ Thus Sean Connery in The Untouchables, explaining how you fight a war ‘Chicago-style’. How would you adapt that, do we think, for our collective response to the Paris attacks? ‘They pull a gun, you pull a hashtag. They send 132 of yours to the morgue, you start calling them a slightly rude name.’
http://new.spectator.co.uk/2015/11/daesh-sheesh/0 -
To get a decent one I'd need a better PSU, which the case might not take. I also don't like using my 'work' PC for gaming, even though I'm not working atm. It used to get regularly wiped between projects (in one case, a customer insisted on wiping it for me!)RobD said:
You could simply upgrade the graphics card. Would be quite a bit cheaper!JosiasJessop said:
Mr Llama, I have indeed downloaded it. Unfortunately when I specified my work PC (now my gaming PC) I gave it a very fast processor (needed for work) and a relatively low-class graphics card. When I first approached a planet it looked like a virus with spikes protruding into space; an update of the card drivers fixed that. But now when I land the planet's surface is odd, to say the least.HurstLlama said:
I am not going to suggest that you might be wrong, I merely point out that your idea of the end game doesn't seem to tie up very closely with what HMG is suggesting in Parliament this very afternoon.JosiasJessop said:
I thought (and might be wrong) it is to remove the threat from ISIS and alN in the short term, and in the long term to support the Vienna peace talks in working towards a transitional government that might be able to bring peace to Syria.
On more important matters: did you download the Elite:Horizons Beta and if so is it ny good?
Other people have seen these effects, and apparently they are being looked into. But in the meantime I'm considering getting a new PC specifically for gaming. Hopefully it will see me to at least season 5 of the game.
I might even try building one. I haven't done that for fifteen years though, and it costs more.
The one advantage in making my own PC is that I can specify the parts: I can choose PSU, motherboard, processor etc and choose manufacturers and makes. This makes it more feasible to upgrade. Typically I get a new PC every three or so years, and a new laptop every two. Last time I built a PC I kept it going for about seven years by regularly changing components. The key is to buy the biggest practical case (also helps with cooling).0 -
The oil price is in decline again, maybe something to do with the prospect of British bombing in Syria.
http://www.bloomberg.com/energy0 -
Goodness knows what the good people of Oldham think of today's events.
Nigel Farage talking in the Telegraph about wiping out labour in the North.
For what that's worth0 -
Tissue_Price said:
Brake intervened on Cameron and said he would back the motion. So it must be someone else - Williams maybe?Pulpstar said:
Brake and Pugh nailed on.FrancisUrquhart said:I'm told two @LibDems MPs "struggling" to support @timfarron in opposing airstrikes #syriavote
Full on rebellion in the Lib Dem party....
To my surprise, I'm hearing Norman Lamb may rebel.0 -
He'd be almost 70 at the time of the next general election so not surprising he didn't want to go for the leadership in today's high pressure 24/7 political environment.SouthamObserver said:I love Alan Johnson's clear, cool contempt for the Corbynistas. He speaks for millions of current and former Labour voters, as well as many others, I suspect. It's such a shame he did not have the drive or ambition to go for the Labour leadership, and that people like him would have no chance in the Labour party Nick Palmer and his mates clearly have their hearts set on. .
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And me. It's such a shame really. If we did not have FPTP they could start something new and probably begin to build a rational, reasonable alternative to both the Tories and Palmer Labour.Wanderer said:I've been thinking just this as the debate has worn on:
https://twitter.com/Robert___Harris/status/672123658358423552
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OGH was a fellow at QueensLennon said:
He went to St John's - clearly they have pretty low standards. (Says an old Queensman)FrancisUrquhart said:
Standards are really slipping at Oxbridge these days if they let him in.AndyJS said:That's an insult to dim bulbs.
Scrapheap_as_was said:Woodcock was heckled by well-respected shadow City Minister (!!) Richard Burgon - one of the dimmest bulbs in the labour pack.
So busy on STW events, I wonder if he's found which City the City is in yet.
Dan Hodges @DPJHodges 15m15 minutes ago
Not content with encouraging a march on his own party's HQ yesterday @RichardBurgon is now heckling his own colleague @JWoodcockMP.0 -
The PC I built has a monstrous case. While good for upgradability and air flow, not good for moving houseJosiasJessop said:
To get a decent one I'd need a better PSU, which the case might not take. I also don't like using my 'work' PC for gaming, even though I'm not working atm. It used to get regularly wiped between projects (in one case, a customer insisted on wiping it for me!)RobD said:
You could simply upgrade the graphics card. Would be quite a bit cheaper!JosiasJessop said:
Mr Llama, I have indeed downloaded it. Unfortunately when I specified my work PC (now my gaming PC) I gave it a very fast processor (needed for work) and a relatively low-class graphics card. When I first approached a planet it looked like a virus with spikes protruding into space; an update of the card drivers fixed that. But now when I land the planet's surface is odd, to say the least.HurstLlama said:
I am not going to suggest that you might be wrong, I merely point out that your idea of the end game doesn't seem to tie up very closely with what HMG is suggesting in Parliament this very afternoon.JosiasJessop said:
I thought (and might be wrong) it is to remove the threat from ISIS and alN in the short term, and in the long term to support the Vienna peace talks in working towards a transitional government that might be able to bring peace to Syria.
On more important matters: did you download the Elite:Horizons Beta and if so is it ny good?
Other people have seen these effects, and apparently they are being looked into. But in the meantime I'm considering getting a new PC specifically for gaming. Hopefully it will see me to at least season 5 of the game.
I might even try building one. I haven't done that for fifteen years though, and it costs more.
The one advantage in making my own PC is that I can specify the parts: I can choose PSU, motherboard, processor etc and choose manufacturers and makes. This makes it more feasible to upgrade. Typically I get a new PC every three or so years, and a new laptop every two. Last time I built a PC I kept it going for about seven years by regularly changing components. The key is to buy the biggest practical case (also helps with cooling).
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You might have to borrow the Lib Dem's taxi to carry all your fellow thinkers!SandyRentool said:I think I am sitting in a small slice of the Venn Diagram - voted Corbyn, supporting today's motion and voting Leave in the referendum.
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What has gone unnoticed is that the Lib Dems have a bigger gap between MPs and its membership than the Labour party.tpfkar said:
To my surprise, I'm hearing Norman Lamb may rebel.Tissue_Price said:
Brake intervened on Cameron and said he would back the motion. So it must be someone else - Williams maybe?Pulpstar said:
Brake and Pugh nailed on.FrancisUrquhart said:I'm told two @LibDems MPs "struggling" to support @timfarron in opposing airstrikes #syriavote
Full on rebellion in the Lib Dem party....
http://www.libdemvoice.org/ldv-members-survey-on-syria-67-oppose-airstrikes-now-butand-its-a-big-but-48468.html
http://liberator-magazine.blogspot.co.uk/2015/12/is-there-any-longer-point-to-liberal.html0 -
Thanks for that, Mr. J.. If you ever do get it working I would be grateful for any news of the gameplay.JosiasJessop said:
Mr Llama, I have indeed downloaded it. Unfortunately when I specified my work PC (now my gaming PC) I gave it a very fast processor (needed for work) and a relatively low-class graphics card. When I first approached a planet it looked like a virus with spikes protruding into space; an update of the card drivers fixed that. But now when I land the planet's surface is odd, to say the least.HurstLlama said:
I am not going to suggest that you might be wrong, I merely point out that your idea of the end game doesn't seem to tie up very closely with what HMG is suggesting in Parliament this very afternoon.JosiasJessop said:
I thought (and might be wrong) it is to remove the threat from ISIS and alN in the short term, and in the long term to support the Vienna peace talks in working towards a transitional government that might be able to bring peace to Syria.
On more important matters: did you download the Elite:Horizons Beta and if so is it ny good?
Other people have seen these effects, and apparently they are being looked into. But in the meantime I'm considering getting a new PC specifically for gaming. Hopefully it will see me to at least season 5 of the game.
I might even try building one. I haven't done that for fifteen years though, and it costs more.
I am surprised that you think a roll your own machine would be more expensive. My boy built himself a gaming computer a year or so back and by my reckoning he saved himself at least £300. Mind you a computers do not last that long these days; my current one was top end two and a half years ago but it now needs a new graphics card and a memory upgrade to 16gb, so that's the best part of £300 to be found in the new year.0 -
Is that forum representative of the membership at large?TCPoliticalBetting said:
What has gone unnoticed is that the Lib Dems have a bigger gap between MPs and its membership than the Labour party.tpfkar said:
To my surprise, I'm hearing Norman Lamb may rebel.Tissue_Price said:
Brake intervened on Cameron and said he would back the motion. So it must be someone else - Williams maybe?Pulpstar said:
Brake and Pugh nailed on.FrancisUrquhart said:I'm told two @LibDems MPs "struggling" to support @timfarron in opposing airstrikes #syriavote
Full on rebellion in the Lib Dem party....
http://www.libdemvoice.org/ldv-members-survey-on-syria-67-oppose-airstrikes-now-butand-its-a-big-but-48468.html
http://liberator-magazine.blogspot.co.uk/2015/12/is-there-any-longer-point-to-liberal.html
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I meant against Ed, who has now become the second worse leader of a major political party in history.AndyJS said:
He'd be almost 70 at the time of the next general election so not surprising he didn't want to go for the leadership in today's high pressure 24/7 political environment.SouthamObserver said:I love Alan Johnson's clear, cool contempt for the Corbynistas. He speaks for millions of current and former Labour voters, as well as many others, I suspect. It's such a shame he did not have the drive or ambition to go for the Labour leadership, and that people like him would have no chance in the Labour party Nick Palmer and his mates clearly have their hearts set on. .
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Polls consistently had Burnham polling best with the public while Corbyn was usually lastOmnium said:Poor stuff from Burnham again I'm told.
I'm not entirely sure that Corbyn was Labour's worst outcome for leader. Burnham seems keen to demonstrate that he would have been much worse. Such a mixed bag though - he has lots of good moments. I guess I'd conclude that he rather lacks self-confidence.
Interesting watching Twigg - the background was Lammy and Zippy. Neither of them seem to be the UK's Obama.0 -
Try asking that question to an SNP politician. You'll get nutted.SeanT said:
No, it's because of OPEC saying they won't cut production if non-OPEC willnae.AndyJS said:The oil price is in decline again, maybe something to do with the prospect of British bombing in Syria.
http://www.bloomberg.com/energy
Imagine iScotland's fiscal situation, around about now.0 -
I think I might be joining youSandyRentool said:I think I am sitting in a small slice of the Venn Diagram - voted Corbyn, supporting today's motion and voting Leave in the referendum.
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Completely O/T for @MTimT:
I showed your Nature article about Bio Security to someone at work in the context of discussion about how to manage operational risk who, as it happens, has a background in the nuclear industry, and they found it very interesting. I think the section you wrote on HROs has some pertinent messages for how to inculcate the right culture re risk in banking and I am thinking of using it further. Of course, people may think I'm mad (or at least madder than normal) making any sort of analogy between biosecurity and banking but I tend to think that if you look at problems from a different perspective you can get worthwhile insights.0 -
...awkward silence...Sunil_Prasannan said:
I think I might be joining youSandyRentool said:I think I am sitting in a small slice of the Venn Diagram - voted Corbyn, supporting today's motion and voting Leave in the referendum.
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I think I'll give that one a miss....dr_spyn said:Please put down the coffee, tea, or over beverage of your choice.
https://twitter.com/Holbornlolz/status/672118845092601856
QT what a bunch. Will the Stop The Traffic marchers be invited to turn up?0 -
No one has commented, but one side effect of having the Syria debate today is that all Labour's MPs will be in Westminster rather than Oldham West. I expect that most of their activists will have been glued to twitter or the TV as well.
UKIP supporters are far less invested in this decision (though obviously they have views). Might this have had an impact on the ground game on the final day of campaigning in the by-election?0 -
It really does look like a perfect storm for UKIP. Here's hoping.AlastairMeeks said:No one has commented, but one side effect of having the Syria debate today is that all Labour's MPs will be in Westminster rather than Oldham West. I expect that most of their activists will have been glued to twitter or the TV as well.
UKIP supporters are far less invested in this decision (though obviously they have views). Might this have had an impact on the ground game on the final day of campaigning in the by-election?
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Maybe, although if the Labour activisits were putting people off, might it be in their favour to not be as visible?AlastairMeeks said:No one has commented, but one side effect of having the Syria debate today is that all Labour's MPs will be in Westminster rather than Oldham West. I expect that most of their activists will have been glued to twitter or the TV as well.
UKIP supporters are far less invested in this decision (though obviously they have views). Might this have had an impact on the ground game on the final day of campaigning in the by-election?
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Thanks for posting that link. Very interesting indeed.Wanderer said:
I don't know how accurate this article is but it suggests that they are expecting to be almost completely defeated before Jesus appears to save them http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2015/03/what-isis-really-wants/384980/The_Apocalypse said:
Thanks for your reply. If anything, another military triumph may well add to Putin's popularity.MTimT said:Putin's popularity in Russia is high (80%+ - essentially everyone except the Moscow and St Petersburg middle classes who are outside the kleptocracy) based upon three things, only one of which is sustainable:
1. restoration of law and order
2. good fortune to have presided over a boom in the value of energy exports (currently not so)
3. revival of Soviet - sorry, Russian - pride with the annexation of Crimea.
We have seen with both Afghanistan and Chechnya that Russia is not immune to popular discontent based on body bag counts. A limited number of deaths that are the cost of successful overseas adventures will bolster Putin's popularity. I would expect higher numbers, or deaths resulting from unsuccessful adventures, or terrorism coming home to roost to have a significant adverse impact on his ratings if sustained.
If they think that then they are in for a shock.AnneJGP said:
No, they are not idiots.The_Apocalypse said:
Don't they worship Putin in Russia as if he's some-kind of demi-god? Though Russia has never struck me as a massively democratic place under Putin.FrancisUrquhart said:
Thats their plan. The great big battle to end all great big battles. The thing is Putin isn't scared of going to war nor too concerned about what parliament / public might think if some Russian (or civilians) get killed. All ISIS need to do now is poke the Chinese.The_Apocalypse said:
What a bunch of idiots. They want to wage war against Russia as well? These people really are cruising for a bruising, as my grandma would say.AlastairMeeks said:@JesseRodriguez ·
NBC News: ISIS releases video showing beheading of alleged Russian spy
@calmsnbc · 10m10 minutes ago
Cal Perry Retweeted Jesse Rodriguez
Executioner in video is speaking Russian ... with accent - message clearly directed at #Moscow.
ISIS are idiots if they believe they can win a battle vs an enemy which has Russia, the rest of Europe, China and the US on the same side.
My understanding of the Islamic idea of armageddon is nil, but if it bears any relationship to the biblical description, they are expecting God to weigh in on their side.
So not idiots, just believers.0 -
''It really does look like a perfect storm for UKIP. Here's hoping. ''
In the telegraph tonight, Farage is offering up a few hostages to fortune.0 -
Age doesn't seem to have put Hillary off. I mean Clinton of course.SouthamObserver said:
I meant against Ed, who has now become the second worse leader of a major political party in history.AndyJS said:
He'd be almost 70 at the time of the next general election so not surprising he didn't want to go for the leadership in today's high pressure 24/7 political environment.SouthamObserver said:I love Alan Johnson's clear, cool contempt for the Corbynistas. He speaks for millions of current and former Labour voters, as well as many others, I suspect. It's such a shame he did not have the drive or ambition to go for the Labour leadership, and that people like him would have no chance in the Labour party Nick Palmer and his mates clearly have their hearts set on. .
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Are UKIP going to pick up the bombing vote? Farage has been very unenthusiastic.SouthamObserver said:
It really does look like a perfect storm for UKIP. Here's hoping.AlastairMeeks said:No one has commented, but one side effect of having the Syria debate today is that all Labour's MPs will be in Westminster rather than Oldham West. I expect that most of their activists will have been glued to twitter or the TV as well.
UKIP supporters are far less invested in this decision (though obviously they have views). Might this have had an impact on the ground game on the final day of campaigning in the by-election?
Are Labour going to pick up the anti-bombing vote with a red Tory?
Both sides seem rather equivocal. It may make little net difference.0 -
You might well be right: it's many years since I last did it. I'll have to ask around.HurstLlama said:
Thanks for that, Mr. J.. If you ever do get it working I would be grateful for any news of the gameplay.JosiasJessop said:
Mr Llama, I have indeed downloaded it. Unfortunately when I specified my work PC (now my gaming PC) I gave it a very fast processor (needed for work) and a relatively low-class graphics card. When I first approached a planet it looked like a virus with spikes protruding into space; an update of the card drivers fixed that. But now when I land the planet's surface is odd, to say the least.HurstLlama said:
I am not going to suggest that you might be wrong, I merely point out that your idea of the end game doesn't seem to tie up very closely with what HMG is suggesting in Parliament this very afternoon.JosiasJessop said:
I thought (and might be wrong) it is to remove the threat from ISIS and alN in the short term, and in the long term to support the Vienna peace talks in working towards a transitional government that might be able to bring peace to Syria.
On more important matters: did you download the Elite:Horizons Beta and if so is it ny good?
Other people have seen these effects, and apparently they are being looked into. But in the meantime I'm considering getting a new PC specifically for gaming. Hopefully it will see me to at least season 5 of the game.
I might even try building one. I haven't done that for fifteen years though, and it costs more.
I am surprised that you think a roll your own machine would be more expensive. My boy built himself a gaming computer a year or so back and by my reckoning he saved himself at least £300. Mind you a computers do not last that long these days; my current one was top end two and a half years ago but it now needs a new graphics card and a memory upgrade to 16gb, so that's the best part of £300 to be found in the new year. 0 -
I doubt the facts of UKIP's position don't get in the way of favourable perception to the good burgers of Oldham.foxinsoxuk said:
Are UKIP going to pick up the bombing vote? Farage has been very unenthusiastic.SouthamObserver said:
It really does look like a perfect storm for UKIP. Here's hoping.AlastairMeeks said:No one has commented, but one side effect of having the Syria debate today is that all Labour's MPs will be in Westminster rather than Oldham West. I expect that most of their activists will have been glued to twitter or the TV as well.
UKIP supporters are far less invested in this decision (though obviously they have views). Might this have had an impact on the ground game on the final day of campaigning in the by-election?
Are Labour going to pick up the anti-bombing vote with a red Tory?
Both sides seem tather equivocal. It may make little net difference.0 -
Wow, just laid Hilary Benn at 4-1 on Betfair.0
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The essence of risk analysis, excellent communications, continual improvement and peer/personal accountability transcends industries - it is a meta model applicable in any industry where the costs of failure are high.Cyclefree said:Completely O/T for @MTimT:
I showed your Nature article about Bio Security to someone at work in the context of discussion about how to manage operational risk who, as it happens, has a background in the nuclear industry, and they found it very interesting. I think the section you wrote on HROs has some pertinent messages for how to inculcate the right culture re risk in banking and I am thinking of using it further. Of course, people may think I'm mad (or at least madder than normal) making any sort of analogy between biosecurity and banking but I tend to think that if you look at problems from a different perspective you can get worthwhile insights.
The nuclear industry is adopting it pretty widely as an approach, with a new organization in Vienna - WINS - leading the charge. https://www.wins.org/index.php?article_id=52
Also the IAEA, through its International Nuclear Safety Group INSAG, has published on this.0 -
The non-religious population 'mis-conception' is caused by the hugely biased census question from which the data is derived.Plato_Says said:Michael Deacon
A list of public misconceptions, released today by the polling firm Ipsos Mori https://t.co/ln51959ruy0 -
An important line in this article:AnneJGP said:
Thanks for posting that link. Very interesting indeed.Wanderer said:
I don't know how accurate this article is but it suggests that they are expecting to be almost completely defeated before Jesus appears to save them http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2015/03/what-isis-really-wants/384980/The_Apocalypse said:
Thanks for your reply. If anything, another military triumph may well add to Putin's popularity.MTimT said:Putin's popularity in Russia is high (80%+ - essentially everyone except the Moscow and St Petersburg middle classes who are outside the kleptocracy) based upon three things, only one of which is sustainable:
1. restoration of law and order
2. good fortune to have presided over a boom in the value of energy exports (currently not so)
3. revival of Soviet - sorry, Russian - pride with the annexation of Crimea.
We have seen with both Afghanistan and Chechnya that Russia is not immune to popular discontent based on body bag counts. A limited number of deaths that are the cost of successful overseas adventures will bolster Putin's popularity. I would expect higher numbers, or deaths resulting from unsuccessful adventures, or terrorism coming home to roost to have a significant adverse impact on his ratings if sustained.
If they think that then they are in for a shock.AnneJGP said:
No, they are not idiots.The_Apocalypse said:
Don't they worship Putin in Russia as if he's some-kind of demi-god? Though Russia has never struck me as a massively democratic place under Putin.FrancisUrquhart said:
snipThe_Apocalypse said:
What a bunch of idiots. They want to wage war against Russia as well? These people really are cruising for a bruising, as my grandma would say.AlastairMeeks said:@JesseRodriguez ·
NBC News: ISIS releases video showing beheading of alleged Russian spy
@calmsnbc · 10m10 minutes ago
Cal Perry Retweeted Jesse Rodriguez
Executioner in video is speaking Russian ... with accent - message clearly directed at #Moscow.
ISIS are idiots if they believe they can win a battle vs an enemy which has Russia, the rest of Europe, China and the US on the same side.
My understanding of the Islamic idea of armageddon is nil, but if it bears any relationship to the biblical description, they are expecting God to weigh in on their side.
So not idiots, just believers.
"The reality is that the Islamic State is Islamic. Very Islamic."0 -
The Free Syrian Army have apparently agreed to leave their last district in Homs under a ceasefire, leaving the city under full Government control. http://www.wsj.com/articles/syrian-rebels-assads-forces-begin-cease-fire-in-homs-14490837000
-
Indeed. They are so unfortunate that merely fighting their way to victory in one place is insufficient. They need to overcome the objections of Turkey, Iran, Iraq and Syria in order for that to happen. I.e., not in our lifetimes.Sunil_Prasannan said:
It would be nice if the Kurds were rewarded for their courage and tenacity in the fight against IS by finally getting their own state.MTimT said:
I never thought it was such a bad idea when Biden suggested it. The big problem I foresaw was how to divvie up Iraq's oil revenues between the successor states in order to encourage a peaceful transition.JosiasJessop said:
I've slowly been heading this way, as anyone reading my posts on here for the last few years will have noticed. The biggest issues to my mind area:Danny565 said:Agreed. Although it will invite the tiresome talk of "colonialism", part of me does think the West needs to take it upon ourselves to redraw the map in that part of the world, into countries that will make for a more stable settlement in the long run.
1) Imposing it can be problematic, both in the short term and long term.
2) When a country splits in this manner, it can cause massive population movements.
For 1), we have to ask whether Sunni, Shia, Alawite and Kurd can be represented together by the same government. History has shown it is difficult, which is exactly why strongmen have been needed to run these countries, at the expense of periodic atrocities. *If* locals can be persuaded then the imposition need not be impossible - and it would have to be agreed locally.
For 2), we have already had massive population movements because of the civil war. That ship has mostly sailed.
Personally, I would try favouring a series of semi-autonomous regions rather than splitting the countr(y/ies) up into separate states, at least at first. This would lead to a similar situation to the Kurdish Regional Government in Iraq, except over the whole country. This federal approach might allow Syria and Iraq to remain as whole entities, whilst giving some autonomy to local populations. It might act as a pressure-relief valve on discontent.
It will also cost a lot of money. But at the end of the day, money will be much of the answer to keep the groups on our side or in check.
But, it was shat on from a great height, particularly by those who argued that Iraq must remain integral - I suspect argued to avoid recriminations of colonialism. I hate when we second guess ourselves out of doing the right thing. Take the hit and move on, it would have been less costly in the long run.0 -
http://blogs.new.spectator.co.uk/2015/12/anybody-who-uses-the-phrase-daesh-is-terminally-deluded/
Rod takes aim at the new politically correct language.0 -
I know. With hindsight though he fought the worst campaign. I thought he was nailed on at the start. The best choice would have been Kendall, the wisest choice Cooper. However that's projecting views I don't hold.HYUFD said:
Polls consistently had Burnham polling best with the public while Corbyn was usually lastOmnium said:Poor stuff from Burnham again I'm told.
I'm not entirely sure that Corbyn was Labour's worst outcome for leader. Burnham seems keen to demonstrate that he would have been much worse. Such a mixed bag though - he has lots of good moments. I guess I'd conclude that he rather lacks self-confidence.
Interesting watching Twigg - the background was Lammy and Zippy. Neither of them seem to be the UK's Obama.
@Pulpstar - that's a great bet to lay on the basis of any real-world definition of the terms. I'm slightly wary though of Benn, Watson and Harman on the basis that they could be interim leaders which are judged as permanent by betfair.
0 -
Nice to know that Diane Abbott is now a qualified military strategist as well as TV superstar. Dan Jarvis must be wondering how she failed to become Secretary of State for Defence.0
-
Evening Standard reports Sadiq Khan will vote against airstrikes with Corbyn0
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It was an excellent speechBig_G_NorthWales said:Powerful speech from Tom Tugendhat in favour of the motion
0 -
See http://www.thstailwinds.com/saudi-arabia-hobsons-choice/ for a short (but excellent) piece I wrote on the subject ahead of the OPEC meeting.SeanT said:
No, it's because of OPEC saying they won't cut production if non-OPEC willnae.AndyJS said:The oil price is in decline again, maybe something to do with the prospect of British bombing in Syria.
http://www.bloomberg.com/energy
Imagine iScotland's fiscal situation, around about now.0 -
I've got him arbed but David Miliband, Dan Jarvis and Hilary Benn are trading at around 7-4 collectively for next Labour leader on Betfair. So it is a ~ 36% return in around 4 years or less, with opportunity for more if more shorteners are laid.Omnium said:
I know. With hindsight though he fought the worst campaign. I thought he was nailed on at the start. The best choice would have been Kendall, the wisest choice Cooper. However that's projecting views I don't hold.HYUFD said:
Polls consistently had Burnham polling best with the public while Corbyn was usually lastOmnium said:Poor stuff from Burnham again I'm told.
I'm not entirely sure that Corbyn was Labour's worst outcome for leader. Burnham seems keen to demonstrate that he would have been much worse. Such a mixed bag though - he has lots of good moments. I guess I'd conclude that he rather lacks self-confidence.
Interesting watching Twigg - the background was Lammy and Zippy. Neither of them seem to be the UK's Obama.
@Pulpstar - that's a great bet to lay on the basis of any real-world definition of the terms. I'm slightly wary though of Benn, Watson and Harman on the basis that they could be interim leaders which are judged as permanent by betfair.0 -
I know very little about Islam, but I do know about belief in God. So I know that those who do not understand belief in God cannot understand Islam.rottenborough said:
An important line in this article:AnneJGP said:
Thanks for posting that link. Very interesting indeed.Wanderer said:
I don't know how accurate this article is but it suggests that they are expecting to be almost completely defeated before Jesus appears to save them http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2015/03/what-isis-really-wants/384980/The_Apocalypse said:
Thanks for your reply. If anything, another military triumph may well add to Putin's popularity.MTimT said:Putin's popularity in Russia is high (80%+ - essentially everyone except the Moscow and St Petersburg middle classes who are outside the kleptocracy) based upon three things, only one of which is sustainable:
1. restoration of law and order
2. good fortune to have presided over a boom in the value of energy exports (currently not so)
3. revival of Soviet - sorry, Russian - pride with the annexation of Crimea.
(snipped)
If they think that then they are in for a shock.AnneJGP said:
No, they are not idiots.The_Apocalypse said:
Don't they worship Putin in Russia as if he's some-kind of demi-god? Though Russia has never struck me as a massively democratic place under Putin.FrancisUrquhart said:
snipThe_Apocalypse said:
What a bunch of idiots. They want to wage war against Russia as well? These people really are cruising for a bruising, as my grandma would say.AlastairMeeks said:@JesseRodriguez ·
NBC News: ISIS releases video showing beheading of alleged Russian spy
@calmsnbc · 10m10 minutes ago
Cal Perry Retweeted Jesse Rodriguez
Executioner in video is speaking Russian ... with accent - message clearly directed at #Moscow.
ISIS are idiots if they believe they can win a battle vs an enemy which has Russia, the rest of Europe, China and the US on the same side.
My understanding of the Islamic idea of armageddon is nil, but if it bears any relationship to the biblical description, they are expecting God to weigh in on their side.
So not idiots, just believers.
"The reality is that the Islamic State is Islamic. Very Islamic."0 -
Disappointed I put my £10 on with a traditional bookie and not betfairPulpstar said:Wow, just laid Hilary Benn at 4-1 on Betfair.
0 -
Are you also proposing the redrawing of Israel to include the State of Palestine and the redrawing of Turkey to create Turkish Kurdistan? Both have considerable difficulties in this area, both stand accused of brutal crackdowns.Cyclefree said:
Well, it's not as if self-government has worked out well, has it?Danny565 said:
Agreed. Although it will invite the tiresome talk of "colonialism", part of me does think the West needs to take it upon ourselves to redraw the map in that part of the world, into countries that will make for a more stable settlement in the long run.MTimT said:Luckyguy1983 said:
And do they then just stay forever?taffys said:''I fear it's becoming ever clearer that the West is weak, and scared, and that ultimately ISIS will win.''
Scared maybe, weak no.
100,000 well armed well supported Western troops would go through ISIS for a short cut. Add 100,000 Russians and its game over.
I think its more 'feeling guilty' than either of the above.
Ultimately, one has to address the grievances in Sunni areas on both Iraq and Syria if ISIS is to have no sanctuary and support in the long term. Perhaps Biden was not so wrong to suggest carving up Iraq into its constituent parts. Perhaps we should add Syria into the mix to create new state borders more reflective of ethhic, cultural and religious reality.
While I hate identity politics within Western states, sometimes it is the obvious way to solve internecine problems.
Redrawing states on the basis of ethnic/religious lines is pretty much what happened in Europe after both World Wars: either boundaries were redrawn or populations moved or both. In the end that may be the only way forward in the Middle East if the people there can't live in peace with themselves, never mind anyone else.0 -
Turkey might be more persuadable for Syrian Kurdistan to become a semi-autonomous area rather than a greater Kurdistan. They had a hissy fit about that happening in Iraqi Kurdistan, but it still happened.MTimT said:Indeed. They are so unfortunate that merely fighting their way to victory in one place is insufficient. They need to overcome the objections of Turkey, Iran, Iraq and Syria in order for that to happen. I.e., not in our lifetimes.
Besides, AIUI there are large cultural and political differences between the Kurds in the various countries. A merged Kurdistan might not work or be sustainable. That's one of the reasons it has taken so long to merge all the peshmerga groups under the DPK and PUK, yet alone the Iranian KDPI.
I feel very conflicted about the Kurds. They've been a much abused minority in the past as their homelands were fought over. Yet the PKK are a festering sore who make the IRA look like schoolchildren.0 -
Betfair says: "as chosen by a Labour Party leadership contest." I suppose a nest of lawyers could argue over the word 'contest'.Omnium said:
I know. With hindsight though he fought the worst campaign. I thought he was nailed on at the start. The best choice would have been Kendall, the wisest choice Cooper. However that's projecting views I don't hold.HYUFD said:
Polls consistently had Burnham polling best with the public while Corbyn was usually lastOmnium said:Poor stuff from Burnham again I'm told.
I'm not entirely sure that Corbyn was Labour's worst outcome for leader. Burnham seems keen to demonstrate that he would have been much worse. Such a mixed bag though - he has lots of good moments. I guess I'd conclude that he rather lacks self-confidence.
Interesting watching Twigg - the background was Lammy and Zippy. Neither of them seem to be the UK's Obama.
@Pulpstar - that's a great bet to lay on the basis of any real-world definition of the terms. I'm slightly wary though of Benn, Watson and Harman on the basis that they could be interim leaders which are judged as permanent by betfair.0 -
All hindsight now anywayOmnium said:
I know. With hindsight though he fought the worst campaign. I thought he was nailed on at the start. The best choice would have been Kendall, the wisest choice Cooper. However that's projecting views I don't hold.HYUFD said:
Polls consistently had Burnham polling best with the public while Corbyn was usually lastOmnium said:Poor stuff from Burnham again I'm told.
I'm not entirely sure that Corbyn was Labour's worst outcome for leader. Burnham seems keen to demonstrate that he would have been much worse. Such a mixed bag though - he has lots of good moments. I guess I'd conclude that he rather lacks self-confidence.
Interesting watching Twigg - the background was Lammy and Zippy. Neither of them seem to be the UK's Obama.
@Pulpstar - that's a great bet to lay on the basis of any real-world definition of the terms. I'm slightly wary though of Benn, Watson and Harman on the basis that they could be interim leaders which are judged as permanent by betfair.0 -
I have cash on him with traditional bookies actually. But at 25s. I'd be laying him at 5.0 even if I didn't.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Disappointed I put my £10 on with a traditional bookie and not betfairPulpstar said:Wow, just laid Hilary Benn at 4-1 on Betfair.
0 -
Yup, albeit I got 16s; I am considering laying on betfair anyway.Pulpstar said:
I have cash on him with traditional bookies actually. But at 25s. I'd be laying him at 5.0 even if I didn't.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Disappointed I put my £10 on with a traditional bookie and not betfairPulpstar said:Wow, just laid Hilary Benn at 4-1 on Betfair.
0 -
Great speech from Alison McGovern too0
-
PM is still in the House, fair play that he is listening to what everyone has to say. Am I right that the vote will be at 10pm UK time?0
-
I've been invited to a function next week at the Russian Embassy. Should I go?0
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We are the bunny layers.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Yup, albeit I got 16s; I am considering laying on betfair anyway.Pulpstar said:
I have cash on him with traditional bookies actually. But at 25s. I'd be laying him at 5.0 even if I didn't.TheWhiteRabbit said:
Disappointed I put my £10 on with a traditional bookie and not betfairPulpstar said:Wow, just laid Hilary Benn at 4-1 on Betfair.
0 -
I'm sure it is but banking has for far too long thought that it did not need to do anything much, let alone the actions you identify. So now that - finally - some focus is being put on it is a good opportunity to introduce some intelligent thinking into the process. Bankers have a tendency to look only at the costs in monetary terms and, while these are bad enough, the real costs are to reputation and trust, which will take years to re-establish. Sure: no-one dies. But the corrosive effect of a loss of trust is pretty real and damaging nonetheless.MTimT said:
The essence of risk analysis, excellent communications, continual improvement and peer/personal accountability transcends industries - it is a meta model applicable in any industry where the costs of failure are high.Cyclefree said:Completely O/T for @MTimT:
I showed your Nature article about Bio Security to someone at work in the context of discussion about how to manage operational risk who, as it happens, has a background in the nuclear industry, and they found it very interesting. I think the section you wrote on HROs has some pertinent messages for how to inculcate the right culture re risk in banking and I am thinking of using it further. Of course, people may think I'm mad (or at least madder than normal) making any sort of analogy between biosecurity and banking but I tend to think that if you look at problems from a different perspective you can get worthwhile insights.
The nuclear industry is adopting it pretty widely as an approach, with a new organization in Vienna - WINS - leading the charge. https://www.wins.org/index.php?article_id=52
Also the IAEA, through its International Nuclear Safety Group INSAG, has published on this.
Anyway, thank you for the article.
By happenstance I also found an article in Nature on banking - http://www.nature.com/news/banking-culture-primes-people-to-cheat-1.16380. This does not surprise me - there are plenty of examples of good people behaving badly if put in the wrong environment. Social pressure, social expectations and social taboos (culture, if you will) are absolutely key.
Plus - and this is probably more applicable to banking than to your industry - the concepts of shame and guilt are bloody useful. If people felt a bit more guilt and a bit more ashamed about bloody awful behaviour instead of thinking it's something to be praised or no big deal we might – just might – have a bit less of it about.
0 -
Zippy, on the other hand...
@politicshome: Liam Byrne says he will oppose Govt motion because it does not set out how to "smash Daesh into history". https://t.co/MiF0UtgAJ30 -
What sort of function? It's always good to hobnob.MikeSmithson said:I've been invited to a function next week at the Russian Embassy. Should I go?
0 -
If there is free booze why not?MikeSmithson said:I've been invited to a function next week at the Russian Embassy. Should I go?
0 -
It looks like it's over for Tiger.
After 3 back operations in 15 months, the last one being unexpected, he has nerve damage in his back.
Watching footage of him glad handing golfers on the range at the tournament he is hosting in the Bahamas this morning he clearly has trouble walking, and he cannot bend over, much less handle even a putter.
He says he spends his time playing video games. He is normally optimistic about rehabbing and getting back into shape, but yesterday he said he had "nothing to look forward to". I've never seen him so down in a presser. There is no time table for his return, his doctor doesn't how long it will be, or IF it will be.
If this is the end, surely it's better to be forced out by injuries than retire because you suck.
Tiger played some of the greatest golf ever seen while in his prime, but Jack Nicklaus is the greatest golfer ever.0 -
Might be churlish not to go. Perhaps they might need advice on who to back in the next Labour leadership contest, when they head out to Paddy Hills or William Power.MikeSmithson said:I've been invited to a function next week at the Russian Embassy. Should I go?
0 -
C4 news Syrian coverage getting increasingly bizarre. Interview with General Dannant I understand, an academic from LSE too, but Michael Morpurgo and Brian Eno?!?
0 -
Dish, dash, daysh, di-esh. If we are going to use it, at least agree how to say it.
Memories of Alchy-Ada.0 -
Hopefully, Mr. Putin wants to hire you as a UK lobbyist at £250,000 p.a.MikeSmithson said:I've been invited to a function next week at the Russian Embassy. Should I go?
0 -
Maybe you have Alex Salmond to thank for attracting their attention.MikeSmithson said:I've been invited to a function next week at the Russian Embassy. Should I go?
0 -
Units responding to a 20 victim shooting incident in San Bernardino. - BBC
FBI, ATF also at the scene - CNN & Fox News
Fox News saying a dozen killed and many wounded.
It's early yet so numbers will possibly change.0 -
Very true.AnneJGP said:
I know very little about Islam, but I do know about belief in God. So I know that those who do not understand belief in God cannot understand Islam.rottenborough said:
An important line in this article:AnneJGP said:
Thanks for posting that link. Very interesting indeed.Wanderer said:
I don't know how accurate this article is but it suggests that they are expecting to be almost completely defeated before Jesus appears to save them http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2015/03/what-isis-really-wants/384980/The_Apocalypse said:
Thanks for your reply. If anything, another military triumph may well add to Putin's popularity.MTimT said:Putin's popularity in Russia is high (80%+ - essentially everyone except the Moscow and St Petersburg middle classes who are outside the kleptocracy) based upon three things, only one of which is sustainable:
1. restoration of law and order
2. good fortune to have presided over a boom in the value of energy exports (currently not so)
3. revival of Soviet - sorry, Russian - pride with the annexation of Crimea.
(snipped)
If they think that then they are in for a shock.AnneJGP said:
No, they are not idiots.The_Apocalypse said:
Don't they worship Putin in Russia as if he's some-kind of demi-god? Though Russia has never struck me as a massively democratic place under Putin.FrancisUrquhart said:
snipThe_Apocalypse said:
What a bunch of idiots. They want to wage war against Russia as well? These people really are cruising for a bruising, as my grandma would say.AlastairMeeks said:@JesseRodriguez ·
NBC News: ISIS releases video showing beheading of alleged Russian spy
@calmsnbc · 10m10 minutes ago
Cal Perry Retweeted Jesse Rodriguez
Executioner in video is speaking Russian ... with accent - message clearly directed at #Moscow.
ISIS are idiots if they believe they can win a battle vs an enemy which has Russia, the rest of Europe, China and the US on the same side.
My understanding of the Islamic idea of armageddon is nil, but if it bears any relationship to the biblical description, they are expecting God to weigh in on their side.
So not idiots, just believers.
"The reality is that the Islamic State is Islamic. Very Islamic."0 -
Are your particulars in orderMikeSmithson said:I've been invited to a function next week at the Russian Embassy. Should I go?
? 0 -
They're not in civil wars, and there are other differences. As well you know.Luckyguy1983 said:
Are you also proposing the redrawing of Israel to include the State of Palestine and the redrawing of Turkey to create Turkish Kurdistan? Both have considerable difficulties in this area, both stand accused of brutal crackdowns.Cyclefree said:
Well, it's not as if self-government has worked out well, has it?Danny565 said:
Agreed. Although it will invite the tiresome talk of "colonialism", part of me does think the West needs to take it upon ourselves to redraw the map in that part of the world, into countries that will make for a more stable settlement in the long run.MTimT said:Luckyguy1983 said:
And do they then just stay forever?taffys said:''I fear it's becoming ever clearer that the West is weak, and scared, and that ultimately ISIS will win.''
Scared maybe, weak no.
100,000 well armed well supported Western troops would go through ISIS for a short cut. Add 100,000 Russians and its game over.
I think its more 'feeling guilty' than either of the above.
Ultimately, one has to address the grievances in Sunni areas on both Iraq and Syria if ISIS is to have no sanctuary and support in the long term. Perhaps Biden was not so wrong to suggest carving up Iraq into its constituent parts. Perhaps we should add Syria into the mix to create new state borders more reflective of ethhic, cultural and religious reality.
While I hate identity politics within Western states, sometimes it is the obvious way to solve internecine problems.
Redrawing states on the basis of ethnic/religious lines is pretty much what happened in Europe after both World Wars: either boundaries were redrawn or populations moved or both. In the end that may be the only way forward in the Middle East if the people there can't live in peace with themselves, never mind anyone else.
Besides, this rather old poll (yes, I know) amongst Turkish Kurds indicates that the majority do not want a separate state. Yet the majority of Turks believe they do, which leads to many Turks not wanting to take steps that might relieve Kurdish grievances but are the first steps towards statehood. Instead, Turkey clamps down, worsening the problem.
http://arsiv.setav.org/Ups/dosya/8504.pdf0 -
Oh look, an "Independent" MP who bizarrely will completely follow the SNP line...0
-
As long as it takes.Luckyguy1983 said:
And do they then just stay forever?taffys said:''I fear it's becoming ever clearer that the West is weak, and scared, and that ultimately ISIS will win.''
Scared maybe, weak no.
100,000 well armed well supported Western troops would go through ISIS for a short cut. Add 100,000 Russians and its game over.
I think its more 'feeling guilty' than either of the above.0 -
I regularly receive emails inviting me to socialise with Russians...MikeSmithson said:I've been invited to a function next week at the Russian Embassy. Should I go?
0 -
Just avoid the honey trap. You might get to meet some interesting people.RobD said:
What sort of function? It's always good to hobnob.MikeSmithson said:I've been invited to a function next week at the Russian Embassy. Should I go?
0 -
Sevvy?Tim_B said:It looks like it's over for Tiger.
After 3 back operations in 15 months, the last one being unexpected, he has nerve damage in his back.
Watching footage of him glad handing golfers on the range at the tournament he is hosting in the Bahamas this morning he clearly has trouble walking, and he cannot bend over, much less handle even a putter.
He says he spends his time playing video games. He is normally optimistic about rehabbing and getting back into shape, but yesterday he said he had "nothing to look forward to". I've never seen him so down in a presser. There is no time table for his return, his doctor doesn't how long it will be, or IF it will be.
If this is the end, surely it's better to be forced out by injuries than retire because you suck.
Tiger played some of the greatest golf ever seen while in his prime, but Jack Nicklaus is the greatest golfer ever.0 -
An embassy function usually involves unlimited free booze and all the canapes you can eat plus the chance to chat with some interesting people from different backgrounds, what is there to think about? Just remember to take a doggy bag.MikeSmithson said:I've been invited to a function next week at the Russian Embassy. Should I go?
0 -
How many of them are over 21 and male?SandyRentool said:
I regularly receive emails inviting me to socialise with Russians...MikeSmithson said:I've been invited to a function next week at the Russian Embassy. Should I go?
0 -
Do you fear a honey trap ?MikeSmithson said:I've been invited to a function next week at the Russian Embassy. Should I go?
0 -
Thanks for the link. I'll print it up and read.Cyclefree said:
I'm sure it is but banking has for far too long thought that it did not need to do anything much, let alone the actions you identify. So now that - finally - some focus is being put on it is a good opportunity to introduce some intelligent thinking into the process. Bankers have a tendency to look only at the costs in monetary terms and, while these are bad enough, the real costs are to reputation and trust, which will take years to re-establish. Sure: no-one dies. But the corrosive effect of a loss of trust is pretty real and damaging nonetheless.MTimT said:
The essence of risk analysis, excellent communications, continual improvement and peer/personal accountability transcends industries - it is a meta model applicable in any industry where the costs of failure are high.Cyclefree said:Completely O/T for @MTimT:
I showed your Nature article about Bio Security to someone at work in the context of discussion about how to manage operational risk who, as it happens, has a background in the nuclear industry, and they found it very interesting. I think the section you wrote on HROs has some pertinent messages for how to inculcate the right culture re risk in banking and I am thinking of using it further. Of course, people may think I'm mad (or at least madder than normal) making any sort of analogy between biosecurity and banking but I tend to think that if you look at problems from a different perspective you can get worthwhile insights.
The nuclear industry is adopting it pretty widely as an approach, with a new organization in Vienna - WINS - leading the charge. https://www.wins.org/index.php?article_id=52
Also the IAEA, through its International Nuclear Safety Group INSAG, has published on this.
Anyway, thank you for the article.
By happenstance I also found an article in Nature on banking - http://www.nature.com/news/banking-culture-primes-people-to-cheat-1.16380. This does not surprise me - there are plenty of examples of good people behaving badly if put in the wrong environment. Social pressure, social expectations and social taboos (culture, if you will) are absolutely key.
Plus - and this is probably more applicable to banking than to your industry - the concepts of shame and guilt are bloody useful. If people felt a bit more guilt and a bit more ashamed about bloody awful behaviour instead of thinking it's something to be praised or no big deal we might – just might – have a bit less of it about.
Ultimately, culture ends up being what you reward, either monetarily, with praise, or with promotions.
If you say you want something, but reward something else, you'll always get something else, regardless of how much your people want to do good or do the right thing.0 -
Apparently there are between 1 and 3 suspects:Tim_B said:Units responding to a 20 victim shooting incident in San Bernardino. - BBC
FBI, ATF also at the scene - CNN & Fox News
Fox News saying a dozen killed and many wounded.
It's early yet so numbers will possibly change.
https://twitter.com/myfoxla/status/6721404653537894400 -
Watch Sneakers first...MikeSmithson said:I've been invited to a function next week at the Russian Embassy. Should I go?
0 -
-
I'm not sure what redrawing of boundaries you have in mind. I certainly don't favour expelling Israeli Arabs from Israel, for instance. And like pretty much everyone I think it would be good to get the Palestinian issue resolved in a stable, peaceful and sustainable way in the interests of both the Palestinians and the Israelis.Luckyguy1983 said:
Are you also proposing the redrawing of Israel to include the State of Palestine and the redrawing of Turkey to create Turkish Kurdistan? Both have considerable difficulties in this area, both stand accused of brutal crackdowns.Cyclefree said:
Well, it's not as if self-government has worked out well, has it?Danny565 said:
Agreed. Although it will invite the tiresome talk of "colonialism", part of me does think the West needs to take it upon ourselves to redraw the map in that part of the world, into countries that will make for a more stable settlement in the long run.MTimT said:Luckyguy1983 said:
And do they then just stay forever?taffys said:''I fear it's becoming ever clearer that the West is weak, and scared, and that ultimately ISIS will win.''
Scared maybe, weak no.
100,000 well armed well supported Western troops would go through ISIS for a short cut. Add 100,000 Russians and its game over.
I think its more 'feeling guilty' than either of the above.
Ultimately, one has to address the grievances in Sunni areas on both Iraq and Syria if ISIS is to have no sanctuary and support in the long term. Perhaps Biden was not so wrong to suggest carving up Iraq into its constituent parts. Perhaps we should add Syria into the mix to create new state borders more reflective of ethhic, cultural and religious reality.
While I hate identity politics within Western states, sometimes it is the obvious way to solve internecine problems.
Redrawing states on the basis of ethnic/religious lines is pretty much what happened in Europe after both World Wars: either boundaries were redrawn or populations moved or both. In the end that may be the only way forward in the Middle East if the people there can't live in peace with themselves, never mind anyone else.
But I was largely focused on the issues that currently exist in relation to Iraq and Syria and on which Mr Jessop has come up with some tentative proposals.
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MikeSmithson said:
I've been invited to a function next week at the Russian Embassy. Should I go?
It'll be fun. Do you like vodka?0 -
Sheer longevity is a requirement for being the GOAT. I mean, you have to be very very good also but you also need to last a very long time being competitive at the top level. Tom Brady may be another example of this.Tim_B said:It looks like it's over for Tiger.
After 3 back operations in 15 months, the last one being unexpected, he has nerve damage in his back.
Watching footage of him glad handing golfers on the range at the tournament he is hosting in the Bahamas this morning he clearly has trouble walking, and he cannot bend over, much less handle even a putter.
He says he spends his time playing video games. He is normally optimistic about rehabbing and getting back into shape, but yesterday he said he had "nothing to look forward to". I've never seen him so down in a presser. There is no time table for his return, his doctor doesn't how long it will be, or IF it will be.
If this is the end, surely it's better to be forced out by injuries than retire because you suck.
Tiger played some of the greatest golf ever seen while in his prime, but Jack Nicklaus is the greatest golfer ever.0 -
They are apparently wearing masks and body armor.MP_SE said:
Apparently there are between 1 and 3 suspects:Tim_B said:Units responding to a 20 victim shooting incident in San Bernardino. - BBC
FBI, ATF also at the scene - CNN & Fox News
Fox News saying a dozen killed and many wounded.
It's early yet so numbers will possibly change.
https://twitter.com/myfoxla/status/6721404653537894400 -
Oh heck - Joe Biden is to address the Ukrainian parliament next week. What could possibly go wrong?0
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Quite so. Despite all the fine words and actions at the moment, the acid test for any bank will be when a high revenue earner misbehaves. Will he (and it usually is a "he") be sacked? Banks have flunked that test in the past.MTimT said:
Thanks for the link. I'll print it up and read.Cyclefree said:
I'm sure it is but banking has for far too long thought that it did not need to do anything much, let alone the actions you identify. So now that - finally - some focus is being put on it is a good opportunity to introduce some intelligent thinking into the process. Bankers have a tendency to look only at the costs in monetary terms and, while these are bad enough, the real costs are to reputation and trust, which will take years to re-establish. Sure: no-one dies. But the corrosive effect of a loss of trust is pretty real and damaging nonetheless.MTimT said:
The essence of risk analysis, excellent communications, continual improvement and peer/personal accountability transcends industries - it is a meta model applicable in any industry where the costs of failure are high.Cyclefree said:Completely O/T for @MTimT:
The nuclear industry is adopting it pretty widely as an approach, with a new organization in Vienna - WINS - leading the charge. https://www.wins.org/index.php?article_id=52
Also the IAEA, through its International Nuclear Safety Group INSAG, has published on this.
Anyway, thank you for the article.
By happenstance I also found an article in Nature on banking - http://www.nature.com/news/banking-culture-primes-people-to-cheat-1.16380. This does not surprise me - there are plenty of examples of good people behaving badly if put in the wrong environment. Social pressure, social expectations and social taboos (culture, if you will) are absolutely key.
Plus - and this is probably more applicable to banking than to your industry - the concepts of shame and guilt are bloody useful. If people felt a bit more guilt and a bit more ashamed about bloody awful behaviour instead of thinking it's something to be praised or no big deal we might – just might – have a bit less of it about.
Ultimately, culture ends up being what you reward, either monetarily, with praise, or with promotions.
If you say you want something, but reward something else, you'll always get something else, regardless of how much your people want to do good or do the right thing.0 -
3 confirmed shooters active, armed with rifles, police confirm.
An SUV left the complex after the shooting began. Police say occupants are 'persons of interest.
Bomb squad attempting to neutralise a suspicious device in 1 of the buildings. Robot on its way.0
