I thought (and might be wrong) it is to remove the threat from ISIS and alN in the short term, and in the long term to support the Vienna peace talks in working towards a transitional government that might be able to bring peace to Syria.
I am not going to suggest that you might be wrong, I merely point out that your idea of the end game doesn't seem to tie up very closely with what HMG is suggesting in Parliament this very afternoon.
On more important matters: did you download the Elite:Horizons Beta and if so is it ny good?
Bombing is part of what's needed. It is necessary. But not sufficient. Ultimately, for territory to be removed from IS it needs to be retaken by ground troops. And that will be bloody.
And it won't just be restricted to Syria. We will more of less have to sweep across North Africa, too.
And here is what I think is the most important statement in this thread so far.
If we're to stop ISIS, we need to be looking at Libya, and doing so yesterday. In terms of ISIS, forget Syria - the Russians are sinking their teeth into them there. Libya is a total vacuum, a dinghy ride away from Southern Europe. And ISIS I believe already have a presence. It needs a firm political settlement, a strong Government, and an end to the fighting right now.
They have a 'presence' in the form of groups who have pledged allegiance to ISIS, and whom ISIS have accepted that allegiance.
I posted an article about this a few days ago, including a map of the countries the groups are 'active' in. It's basically the entire ME and North Africa.
Which is why I've been saying all along that ISIS will just move off to one of those countries. Therefore we need to strike the ideology as well as the people.
I have to admit I'm worried about some of the Lab MPs who are supporting the airstrikes. Pretty much all the candidates for a sensible Lab leader before 2020 (Benn, Johnson, Cooper) seem to be supporting it, but I fear this will prove to be a red-line for even many moderate Labour members.
(Though speaking personally, even as someone against these airstrikes, I wouldn't hold this against a potential leader as long as I was persuaded they genuinely thought it was the right thing to do, rather than that they were doing it just to "make a point" about Corbyn.)
Would you be in favour of bombing IS if London, and not Paris was attacked ?
I won't lie, if Britain was attacked then my gut/emotional reaction probably would be that we have to "do something". Hell, that was even my initial reaction a bit immediately after Paris.
But the more I think about it, the more I don't see how this will achieve anything to actually help defeat ISIL, other than that immediate gratification that we're "doing something". As (I think) Foxinsox said earlier, this feels rather like whacking a hornets' nest a few times, before running away after we've got them all angry.
Taking part in a coordinated effort, for the first time, between NATO forces and Russia, to tackle a real threat to our security provides a historic opportunity to fix the fault lines that were left after the Cold War and bring Russia back into the family of European nations. That prize alone is so compelling that whatever the merits of the current strategy against IS, we should not stand aside and leave it to our allies.
What do you think Russia's end game in Syria is? Do you think it is the same end-game as the NATO countries' ? Which, if either, is right?
The answer to the former can be found in the targets Russia has mainly been bombing: they want to preserve Assad's power in his core heartland, which is strategic for Russia. The answer to the second is to banish ISIS.
I'd say our end-game is more vital than Russia's.
If that is our end-game and it is more vital then it is in our interests to concede to Russia on the former point.
I don't really like the term - I find it confusing and grammatically ambiguous - but it really pisses them off, so I might use it for that reason and that alone.
Does it really piss them off though? People who celebrate how barbaric they are don't like a name?
Who cares if it pisses them off ffs? I don't get people's need to demonstrate that they are jolly cross with a murderous death cult. It should be a given.
Well, quite. I don't see that it matters what we call them, and certainly not what they would prefer we would call them.
Mr. Thompson, even if they don't put their heads above the parapet, there's 'nowhere to hide'.
Actually I agree with the Corbynistas on this point. In a vote such as this there ought to be nowhere to bloody hide. Medical or personal grounds (Gapes/Debbonaire) should be the only reason not to head through either the yay or nay lobby.
Full credit to Kevin Foster on this who is explaining his reasons for voting "for" to his largely hostile Facebook questioners.
Mr. Pulpstar, that wasn't the way it's been reported here, though. What was conveyed was Corbyn unveiling his new faux leather substitute offering I Can't Believe It's An Unwhipped Vote.
Labour MPs can vote any way they like. And Corbyn will take note. As will Maomentum, Stop the War and anyone thinking of deselecting.
Cal Perry Retweeted Jesse Rodriguez Executioner in video is speaking Russian ... with accent - message clearly directed at #Moscow.
What a bunch of idiots. They want to wage war against Russia as well? These people really are cruising for a bruising, as my grandma would say.
Thats their plan. The great big battle to end all great big battles. The thing is Putin isn't scared of going to war nor too concerned about what parliament / public might think if some Russian (or civilians) get killed. All ISIS need to do now is poke the Chinese.
I have to admit I'm worried about some of the Lab MPs who are supporting the airstrikes. Pretty much all the candidates for a sensible Lab leader before 2020 (Benn, Johnson, Cooper) seem to be supporting it, but I fear this will prove to be a red-line for even many moderate Labour members.
(Though speaking personally, even as someone against these airstrikes, I wouldn't hold this against a potential leader as long as I was persuaded they genuinely thought it was the right thing to do, rather than that they were doing it just to "make a point" about Corbyn.)
Would you be in favour of bombing IS if London, and not Paris was attacked ?
I won't lie, if Britain was attacked then my gut/emotional reaction probably would be that we have to "do something". Hell, that was even my initial reaction a bit immediately after Paris.
But the more I think about it, the more I don't see how this will achieve anything to actually help defeat ISIL, other than that immediate gratification that we're "doing something". As (I think) Foxinsox said earlier, this feels rather like whacking a hornets' nest a few times, before running away after we've got them all angry.
Taking part in a coordinated effort, for the first time, between NATO forces and Russia, to tackle a real threat to our security provides a historic opportunity to fix the fault lines that were left after the Cold War and bring Russia back into the family of European nations. That prize alone is so compelling that whatever the merits of the current strategy against IS, we should not stand aside and leave it to our allies.
What do you think Russia's end game in Syria is? Do you think it is the same end-game as the NATO countries' ? Which, if either, is right?
The answer to the former can be found in the targets Russia has mainly been bombing: they want to preserve Assad's power in his core heartland, which is strategic for Russia. The answer to the second is to banish ISIS.
I'd say our end-game is more vital than Russia's.
If that is our end-game and it is more vital then it is in our interests to concede to Russia on the former point.
My first reaction was to disagree. But on reflection, I think you are right. In the short term. We can concede, for now.
What's he saying? Crap hotel wifi so can't stream.
Said that the party mustn't promote "angry intolerant pacifism" and (this is what I thought was Incendiary) that members of the front bench were doing just that.
''Interesting to speculate how the French Socialist Party will react, when they hear half the shadow cabinet rejected their pleas to provide support. ''
The shadow cabinet here don;t have Le Pen breathing down their necks.
Cal Perry Retweeted Jesse Rodriguez Executioner in video is speaking Russian ... with accent - message clearly directed at #Moscow.
What a bunch of idiots. They want to wage war against Russia as well? These people really are cruising for a bruising, as my grandma would say.
Thats their plan. The great big battle to end all great big battles. The thing is Putin isn't scared of going to war nor too concerned about what parliament / public might think if some Russian (or civilians) get killed. All ISIS need to do now is poke the Chinese.
Don't they worship Putin in Russia as if he's some-kind of demi-god? Though Russia has never struck me as a massively democratic place under Putin.
ISIS are idiots if they believe they can win a battle vs an enemy which has Russia, the rest of Europe, China and the US on the same side.
What's he saying? Crap hotel wifi so can't stream.
Said that the party mustn't promote "angry intolerant pacifism" and (this is what I thought was Incendiary) that members of the front bench were doing just that.
And also accused them of putting myriad preconditions on action they know won't be met and that they would never support intervention in any circumstances (in essence calling them false).
I'd never heard of Woodcock, but I'd guess we now know one of those people always giving the media a blow by blow of angry PLP exchanges.
''I fear it's becoming ever clearer that the West is weak, and scared, and that ultimately ISIS will win.''
Scared maybe, weak no.
100,000 well armed well supported Western troops would go through ISIS for a short cut. Add 100,000 Russians and its game over.
I think its more 'feeling guilty' than either of the above.
And do they then just stay forever?
Ultimately, one has to address the grievances in Sunni areas on both Iraq and Syria if ISIS is to have no sanctuary and support in the long term. Perhaps Biden was not so wrong to suggest carving up Iraq into its constituent parts. Perhaps we should add Syria into the mix to create new state borders more reflective of ethhic, cultural and religious reality.
While I hate identity politics within Western states, sometimes it is the obvious way to solve internecine problems.
Cal Perry Retweeted Jesse Rodriguez Executioner in video is speaking Russian ... with accent - message clearly directed at #Moscow.
What a bunch of idiots. They want to wage war against Russia as well? These people really are cruising for a bruising, as my grandma would say.
Thats their plan. The great big battle to end all great big battles. The thing is Putin isn't scared of going to war nor too concerned about what parliament / public might think if some Russian (or civilians) get killed. All ISIS need to do now is poke the Chinese.
Don't they worship Putin in Russia as if he's some-kind of demi-god? Though Russia has never struck me as a massively democratic place under Putin.
ISIS are idiots if they believe they can win a battle vs an enemy which has Russia, the rest of Europe, China and the US on the same side.
That was my point. While the west are hamstrung by Iraq, cost, public reactions etc, Putin can do what he likes...and we know he likes a good dust up.
Cal Perry Retweeted Jesse Rodriguez Executioner in video is speaking Russian ... with accent - message clearly directed at #Moscow.
Oh, dear. If that is correct and a Russian really has been murdered on camera then I very much fear this afternoon's debate in Parliament has been rendered quite irrelevant. Whether we contribute another 6/8 aircraft and agree to bomb a different side of a line doesn't matter a toss anymore. The Russians are going to be going on the warpath and they will be setting the tone of what happens in the air over Syria.
''Interesting to speculate how the French Socialist Party will react, when they hear half the shadow cabinet rejected their pleas to provide support. ''
The shadow cabinet here don;t have Le Pen breathing down their necks.
''I fear it's becoming ever clearer that the West is weak, and scared, and that ultimately ISIS will win.''
Scared maybe, weak no.
100,000 well armed well supported Western troops would go through ISIS for a short cut. Add 100,000 Russians and its game over.
I think its more 'feeling guilty' than either of the above.
And do they then just stay forever?
Ultimately, one has to address the grievances in Sunni areas on both Iraq and Syria if ISIS is to have no sanctuary and support in the long term. Perhaps Biden was not so wrong to suggest carving up Iraq into its constituent parts. Perhaps we should add Syria into the mix to create new state borders more reflective of ethhic, cultural and religious reality.
While I hate identity politics within Western states, sometimes it is the obvious way to solve internecine problems.
Agreed. Although it will invite the tiresome talk of "colonialism", part of me does think the West needs to take it upon ourselves to redraw the map in that part of the world, into countries that will make for a more stable settlement in the long run.
A load of Corbynites have hijacked my twitter notifications and are telling me that Alan Johnson is a class traitor and a Tory. Dear Me, what a world I live in these days.
''I fear it's becoming ever clearer that the West is weak, and scared, and that ultimately ISIS will win.''
Scared maybe, weak no.
100,000 well armed well supported Western troops would go through ISIS for a short cut. Add 100,000 Russians and its game over.
I think its more 'feeling guilty' than either of the above.
And do they then just stay forever?
Ultimately, one has to address the grievances in Sunni areas on both Iraq and Syria if ISIS is to have no sanctuary and support in the long term. Perhaps Biden was not so wrong to suggest carving up Iraq into its constituent parts. Perhaps we should add Syria into the mix to create new state borders more reflective of ethhic, cultural and religious reality.
While I hate identity politics within Western states, sometimes it is the obvious way to solve internecine problems.
Agreed. Although it will invite the tiresome talk of "colonialism",
That crops up no matter what we do, so no harm in adding to the perception.
What's he saying? Crap hotel wifi so can't stream.
Said that the party mustn't promote "angry intolerant pacifism" and (this is what I thought was Incendiary) that members of the front bench were doing just that.
And also accused them of putting myriad preconditions on action they know won't be met and that they would never support intervention in any circumstances (in essence calling them false).
I'd never heard of Woodcock, but I'd guess we now know one of those people always giving the media a blow by blow of angry PLP exchanges.
Woodcock was heckled by well-respected shadow City Minister (!!) Richard Burgon - one of the dimmest bulbs in the labour pack.
So busy on STW events, I wonder if he's found which City the City is in yet.
Dan Hodges @DPJHodges 15m15 minutes ago Not content with encouraging a march on his own party's HQ yesterday @RichardBurgon is now heckling his own colleague @JWoodcockMP.
Cal Perry Retweeted Jesse Rodriguez Executioner in video is speaking Russian ... with accent - message clearly directed at #Moscow.
What a bunch of idiots. They want to wage war against Russia as well? These people really are cruising for a bruising, as my grandma would say.
Thats their plan. The great big battle to end all great big battles. The thing is Putin isn't scared of going to war nor too concerned about what parliament / public might think if some Russian (or civilians) get killed. All ISIS need to do now is poke the Chinese.
Don't they worship Putin in Russia as if he's some-kind of demi-god? Though Russia has never struck me as a massively democratic place under Putin.
ISIS are idiots if they believe they can win a battle vs an enemy which has Russia, the rest of Europe, China and the US on the same side.
Putin's popularity in Russia is high (80%+ - essentially everyone except the Moscow and St Petersburg middle classes who are outside the kleptocracy) based upon three things, only one of which is sustainable:
1. restoration of law and order 2. good fortune to have presided over a boom in the value of energy exports (currently not so) 3. revival of Soviet - sorry, Russian - pride with the annexation of Crimea.
We have seen with both Afghanistan and Chechnya that Russia is not immune to popular discontent based on body bag counts. A limited number of deaths that are the cost of successful overseas adventures will bolster Putin's popularity. I would expect higher numbers, or deaths resulting from unsuccessful adventures, or terrorism coming home to roost to have a significant adverse impact on his ratings if sustained.
A load of Corbynites have hijacked my twitter notifications and are telling me that Alan Johnson is a class traitor and a Tory. Dear Me, what a world I live in these days.
Cal Perry Retweeted Jesse Rodriguez Executioner in video is speaking Russian ... with accent - message clearly directed at #Moscow.
What a bunch of idiots. They want to wage war against Russia as well? These people really are cruising for a bruising, as my grandma would say.
Thats their plan. The great big battle to end all great big battles. The thing is Putin isn't scared of going to war nor too concerned about what parliament / public might think if some Russian (or civilians) get killed. All ISIS need to do now is poke the Chinese.
Don't they worship Putin in Russia as if he's some-kind of demi-god? Though Russia has never struck me as a massively democratic place under Putin.
ISIS are idiots if they believe they can win a battle vs an enemy which has Russia, the rest of Europe, China and the US on the same side.
No, they are not idiots.
My understanding of the Islamic idea of armageddon is nil, but if it bears any relationship to the biblical description, they are expecting God to weigh in on their side.
Woodcock was heckled by well-respected shadow City Minister (!!) Richard Burgon - one of the dimmest bulbs in the labour pack.
So busy on STW events, I wonder if he's found which City the City is in yet.
Dan Hodges @DPJHodges 15m15 minutes ago Not content with encouraging a march on his own party's HQ yesterday @RichardBurgon is now heckling his own colleague @JWoodcockMP.
That would be the shadow City Minister who never talks to anybody in the city....what is the city again?
Total and Permanent Disability option on PHI / Income Protection policies?
Income Protection is the great unsold policy of our time.
That's added to the debate.
Agreed - for the amount of cover it can offer someone, it is a great and under used product albeit the cost often can seem that much more than just life cover - but there's a reason one costs more than the other... it's more likely to happen.
Cal Perry Retweeted Jesse Rodriguez Executioner in video is speaking Russian ... with accent - message clearly directed at #Moscow.
Oh, dear. If that is correct and a Russian really has been murdered on camera then I very much fear this afternoon's debate in Parliament has been rendered quite irrelevant. Whether we contribute another 6/8 aircraft and agree to bomb a different side of a line doesn't matter a toss anymore. The Russians are going to be going on the warpath and they will be setting the tone of what happens in the air over Syria.
Really? After killing a plane load of tourists, the on-screen murder of one more is going to make all the difference to Putin?
A load of Corbynites have hijacked my twitter notifications and are telling me that Alan Johnson is a class traitor and a Tory. Dear Me, what a world I live in these days.
Really?, the affable postman from Paddington is now a class traitor and Tory scum? - It’s very hard to comprehend the thinking behind these nasty Corbynites.
Woodcock was heckled by well-respected shadow City Minister (!!) Richard Burgon - one of the dimmest bulbs in the labour pack.
So busy on STW events, I wonder if he's found which City the City is in yet.
Dan Hodges @DPJHodges 15m15 minutes ago Not content with encouraging a march on his own party's HQ yesterday @RichardBurgon is now heckling his own colleague @JWoodcockMP.
That would be the shadow City Minister who never talks to anybody in the city....what is the city again?
Stoke, Man, Bristol - he represents football teams of that brand name.
Poland was saying it wouldn't accept the quotas (which it voted for, annoying certain other countries who thought it was against) following the Paris attacks. The countries which voted against, such as the Czech Republic, will not necessarily be enamoured with the Chancellor if this occurs.
Ms. Apocalypse, quite. Intriguing that some on both left and right oppose the current proposal because they feel it doesn't go far enough. I think some genuinely believe that, and others are using it as a fig leaf to conceal their own limp position.
They're zealots. The smallest disagreement is heresy.
Edited extra bit: Miss Cyclefree, yes. At least one person from each of the permanent five UN Security Council members (each of whom has a veto, of course) has been killed.
What's he saying? Crap hotel wifi so can't stream.
Said that the party mustn't promote "angry intolerant pacifism" and (this is what I thought was Incendiary) that members of the front bench were doing just that.
And also accused them of putting myriad preconditions on action they know won't be met and that they would never support intervention in any circumstances (in essence calling them false).
I'd never heard of Woodcock, but I'd guess we now know one of those people always giving the media a blow by blow of angry PLP exchanges.
''I fear it's becoming ever clearer that the West is weak, and scared, and that ultimately ISIS will win.''
Scared maybe, weak no.
100,000 well armed well supported Western troops would go through ISIS for a short cut. Add 100,000 Russians and its game over.
I think its more 'feeling guilty' than either of the above.
And do they then just stay forever?
Ultimately, one has to address the grievances in Sunni areas on both Iraq and Syria if ISIS is to have no sanctuary and support in the long term. Perhaps Biden was not so wrong to suggest carving up Iraq into its constituent parts. Perhaps we should add Syria into the mix to create new state borders more reflective of ethhic, cultural and religious reality.
While I hate identity politics within Western states, sometimes it is the obvious way to solve internecine problems.
Agreed. Although it will invite the tiresome talk of "colonialism", part of me does think the West needs to take it upon ourselves to redraw the map in that part of the world, into countries that will make for a more stable settlement in the long run.
A regional conference, with strong US and - dare I say it - Russian leadership, and all the relevant (good and bad) state players at the table might be able to create new states which make sense without it being a colonial enterprise. The biggest issue would be finding the right Sunni representatives for the new state(s).
''I fear it's becoming ever clearer that the West is weak, and scared, and that ultimately ISIS will win.''
Scared maybe, weak no.
100,000 well armed well supported Western troops would go through ISIS for a short cut. Add 100,000 Russians and its game over.
I think its more 'feeling guilty' than either of the above.
And do they then just stay forever?
Ultimately, one has to address the grievances in Sunni areas on both Iraq and Syria if ISIS is to have no sanctuary and support in the long term. Perhaps Biden was not so wrong to suggest carving up Iraq into its constituent parts. Perhaps we should add Syria into the mix to create new state borders more reflective of ethhic, cultural and religious reality.
While I hate identity politics within Western states, sometimes it is the obvious way to solve internecine problems.
Agreed. Although it will invite the tiresome talk of "colonialism", part of me does think the West needs to take it upon ourselves to redraw the map in that part of the world, into countries that will make for a more stable settlement in the long run.
Well, it's not as if self-government has worked out well, has it?
Redrawing states on the basis of ethnic/religious lines is pretty much what happened in Europe after both World Wars: either boundaries were redrawn or populations moved or both. In the end that may be the only way forward in the Middle East if the people there can't live in peace with themselves, never mind anyone else.
Putin's popularity in Russia is high (80%+ - essentially everyone except the Moscow and St Petersburg middle classes who are outside the kleptocracy) based upon three things, only one of which is sustainable:
1. restoration of law and order 2. good fortune to have presided over a boom in the value of energy exports (currently not so) 3. revival of Soviet - sorry, Russian - pride with the annexation of Crimea.
We have seen with both Afghanistan and Chechnya that Russia is not immune to popular discontent based on body bag counts. A limited number of deaths that are the cost of successful overseas adventures will bolster Putin's popularity. I would expect higher numbers, or deaths resulting from unsuccessful adventures, or terrorism coming home to roost to have a significant adverse impact on his ratings if sustained.
Thanks for your reply. If anything, another military triumph may well add to Putin's popularity.
Cal Perry Retweeted Jesse Rodriguez Executioner in video is speaking Russian ... with accent - message clearly directed at #Moscow.
What a bunch of idiots. They want to wage war against Russia as well? These people really are cruising for a bruising, as my grandma would say.
Thats their plan. The great big battle to end all great big battles. The thing is Putin isn't scared of going to war nor too concerned about what parliament / public might think if some Russian (or civilians) get killed. All ISIS need to do now is poke the Chinese.
Don't they worship Putin in Russia as if he's some-kind of demi-god? Though Russia has never struck me as a massively democratic place under Putin.
ISIS are idiots if they believe they can win a battle vs an enemy which has Russia, the rest of Europe, China and the US on the same side.
No, they are not idiots.
My understanding of the Islamic idea of armageddon is nil, but if it bears any relationship to the biblical description, they are expecting God to weigh in on their side.
Woodcock was heckled by well-respected shadow City Minister (!!) Richard Burgon - one of the dimmest bulbs in the labour pack.
So busy on STW events, I wonder if he's found which City the City is in yet.
Dan Hodges @DPJHodges 15m15 minutes ago Not content with encouraging a march on his own party's HQ yesterday @RichardBurgon is now heckling his own colleague @JWoodcockMP.
They're zealots. The smallest disagreement is heresy.
Edited extra bit: Miss Cyclefree, yes. At least one person from each of the permanent five UN Security Council members (each of whom has a veto, of course) has been killed.
I'm afraid your refusal to use quotes has left me in a state of bemusement, Monsieur Dancer. Which comment are you referring to?
Woodcock was heckled by well-respected shadow City Minister (!!) Richard Burgon - one of the dimmest bulbs in the labour pack.
So busy on STW events, I wonder if he's found which City the City is in yet.
Dan Hodges @DPJHodges 15m15 minutes ago Not content with encouraging a march on his own party's HQ yesterday @RichardBurgon is now heckling his own colleague @JWoodcockMP.
Standards are really slipping at Oxbridge these days if they let him in.
Poland was saying it wouldn't accept the quotas (which it voted for, annoying certain other countries who thought it was against) following the Paris attacks. The countries which voted against, such as the Czech Republic, will not necessarily be enamoured with the Chancellor if this occurs.
Ms. Apocalypse, quite. Intriguing that some on both left and right oppose the current proposal because they feel it doesn't go far enough. I think some genuinely believe that, and others are using it as a fig leaf to conceal their own limp position.
Yep, although I think many are just looking for a long-term strategy from Cameron (and they can't really see that at the moment). For the likes of the 'Stop the War coalition', I believe they are the kind of people who would have opposed Britain going to war with Nazi Germany in 1939.
Woodcock was heckled by well-respected shadow City Minister (!!) Richard Burgon - one of the dimmest bulbs in the labour pack.
So busy on STW events, I wonder if he's found which City the City is in yet.
Dan Hodges @DPJHodges 15m15 minutes ago Not content with encouraging a march on his own party's HQ yesterday @RichardBurgon is now heckling his own colleague @JWoodcockMP.
Standards are really slipping at Oxbridge these days if they let him in.
He went to St John's - clearly they have pretty low standards. (Says an old Queensman)
Putin's popularity in Russia is high (80%+ - essentially everyone except the Moscow and St Petersburg middle classes who are outside the kleptocracy) based upon three things, only one of which is sustainable:
1. restoration of law and order 2. good fortune to have presided over a boom in the value of energy exports (currently not so) 3. revival of Soviet - sorry, Russian - pride with the annexation of Crimea.
We have seen with both Afghanistan and Chechnya that Russia is not immune to popular discontent based on body bag counts. A limited number of deaths that are the cost of successful overseas adventures will bolster Putin's popularity. I would expect higher numbers, or deaths resulting from unsuccessful adventures, or terrorism coming home to roost to have a significant adverse impact on his ratings if sustained.
Thanks for your reply. If anything, another military triumph may well add to Putin's popularity.
Cal Perry Retweeted Jesse Rodriguez Executioner in video is speaking Russian ... with accent - message clearly directed at #Moscow.
What a bunch of idiots. They want to wage war against Russia as well? These people really are cruising for a bruising, as my grandma would say.
Thats their plan. The great big battle to end all great big battles. The thing is Putin isn't scared of going to war nor too concerned about what parliament / public might think if some Russian (or civilians) get killed. All ISIS need to do now is poke the Chinese.
Don't they worship Putin in Russia as if he's some-kind of demi-god? Though Russia has never struck me as a massively democratic place under Putin.
ISIS are idiots if they believe they can win a battle vs an enemy which has Russia, the rest of Europe, China and the US on the same side.
No, they are not idiots.
My understanding of the Islamic idea of armageddon is nil, but if it bears any relationship to the biblical description, they are expecting God to weigh in on their side.
Putin's popularity in Russia is high (80%+ - essentially everyone except the Moscow and St Petersburg middle classes who are outside the kleptocracy) based upon three things, only one of which is sustainable:
1. restoration of law and order 2. good fortune to have presided over a boom in the value of energy exports (currently not so) 3. revival of Soviet - sorry, Russian - pride with the annexation of Crimea.
We have seen with both Afghanistan and Chechnya that Russia is not immune to popular discontent based on body bag counts. A limited number of deaths that are the cost of successful overseas adventures will bolster Putin's popularity. I would expect higher numbers, or deaths resulting from unsuccessful adventures, or terrorism coming home to roost to have a significant adverse impact on his ratings if sustained.
Thanks for your reply. If anything, another military triumph may well add to Putin's popularity.
I don't think there is much up side to Putin's popularity. All those who could be won over by military triumphs are already in his column. Those against him are those who believe in democracy, freedom of speech and the press, human rights - in particular gay rights, and those who rail against the kleptocracy. I don't see them being won over by successes against ISIS.
Great to see Labour are running an honest campaign in Oldham:
No sooner have I switched off the recorder than a local businessman, Imran Sarwar, approaches the UKIP leader.
“The Labour activists are going around, in the private meetings, saying that Muslims will be deported if UKIP wins and that UKIP is the civilized BNP [British National Party]. But I have come to hear you sir … and this is not true sir.”
Putin's popularity in Russia is high (80%+ - essentially everyone except the Moscow and St Petersburg middle classes who are outside the kleptocracy) based upon three things, only one of which is sustainable:
1. restoration of law and order 2. good fortune to have presided over a boom in the value of energy exports (currently not so) 3. revival of Soviet - sorry, Russian - pride with the annexation of Crimea.
We have seen with both Afghanistan and Chechnya that Russia is not immune to popular discontent based on body bag counts. A limited number of deaths that are the cost of successful overseas adventures will bolster Putin's popularity. I would expect higher numbers, or deaths resulting from unsuccessful adventures, or terrorism coming home to roost to have a significant adverse impact on his ratings if sustained.
Thanks for your reply. If anything, another military triumph may well add to Putin's popularity.
I don't think there is much up side to Putin's popularity. All those who could be won over by military triumphs are already in his column. Those against him are those who believe in democracy, freedom of speech and the press, human rights - in particular gay rights, and those who rail against the kleptocracy. I don't see them being won over by successes against ISIS.
That's not quite true. Several prominent figures in what might be called the liberal opposition made approving noises about the annexation of Crimea.
Turkey is a historic Russian bogeyman and Erdogan has foolishly given the Russians a propaganda tool.
Putin's popularity in Russia is high (80%+ - essentially everyone except the Moscow and St Petersburg middle classes who are outside the kleptocracy) based upon three things, only one of which is sustainable:
1. restoration of law and order 2. good fortune to have presided over a boom in the value of energy exports (currently not so) 3. revival of Soviet - sorry, Russian - pride with the annexation of Crimea.
We have seen with both Afghanistan and Chechnya that Russia is not immune to popular discontent based on body bag counts. A limited number of deaths that are the cost of successful overseas adventures will bolster Putin's popularity. I would expect higher numbers, or deaths resulting from unsuccessful adventures, or terrorism coming home to roost to have a significant adverse impact on his ratings if sustained.
Thanks for your reply. If anything, another military triumph may well add to Putin's popularity.
I don't think there is much up side to Putin's popularity. All those who could be won over by military triumphs are already in his column. Those against him are those who believe in democracy, freedom of speech and the press, human rights - in particular gay rights, and those who rail against the kleptocracy. I don't see them being won over by successes against ISIS.
True. I guess I was thinking it might solidify the support he already has. If ISIS managed to launch a terrorist attack in Russia, that would be pretty bad for Putin's public image.
Great to see Labour are running an honest campaign in Oldham:
No sooner have I switched off the recorder than a local businessman, Imran Sarwar, approaches the UKIP leader.
“The Labour activists are going around, in the private meetings, saying that Muslims will be deported if UKIP wins and that UKIP is the civilized BNP [British National Party]. But I have come to hear you sir … and this is not true sir.”
Great to see Labour are running an honest campaign in Oldham:
No sooner have I switched off the recorder than a local businessman, Imran Sarwar, approaches the UKIP leader.
“The Labour activists are going around, in the private meetings, saying that Muslims will be deported if UKIP wins and that UKIP is the civilized BNP [British National Party]. But I have come to hear you sir … and this is not true sir.”
They have given up on the make the whites angry approach. Its scare the ethnic minorities instead. Appears they have given up on the WWC. Not surprising as Jihadi Jez and friends despise everything about them.
Putin's popularity in Russia is high (80%+ - essentially everyone except the Moscow and St Petersburg middle classes who are outside the kleptocracy) based upon three things, only one of which is sustainable:
1. restoration of law and order 2. good fortune to have presided over a boom in the value of energy exports (currently not so) 3. revival of Soviet - sorry, Russian - pride with the annexation of Crimea.
We have seen with both Afghanistan and Chechnya that Russia is not immune to popular discontent based on body bag counts. A limited number of deaths that are the cost of successful overseas adventures will bolster Putin's popularity. I would expect higher numbers, or deaths resulting from unsuccessful adventures, or terrorism coming home to roost to have a significant adverse impact on his ratings if sustained.
Thanks for your reply. If anything, another military triumph may well add to Putin's popularity.
I don't think there is much up side to Putin's popularity. All those who could be won over by military triumphs are already in his column. Those against him are those who believe in democracy, freedom of speech and the press, human rights - in particular gay rights, and those who rail against the kleptocracy. I don't see them being won over by successes against ISIS.
That's not quite true. Several prominent figures in what might be called the liberal opposition made approving noises about the annexation of Crimea.
Turkey is a historic Russian bogeyman and Erdogan has foolishly given the Russians a propaganda tool.
But those who approved of the Crimean Annexation are already in his column. So we are really talking about those for whom confrontation with Turkey would make Putin more popular. Can't see that being a lot of people.
A load of Corbynites have hijacked my twitter notifications and are telling me that Alan Johnson is a class traitor and a Tory. Dear Me, what a world I live in these days.
Really?, the affable postman from Paddington is now a class traitor and Tory scum? - It’s very hard to comprehend the thinking behind these nasty Corbynites.
I think that Tory has now been redefined to mean anyone who doesn't support Corbyn.
Meanwhile the Tories are cheerfully redefining the Labour party as "Terrorist Sympathisers".
The self-righteous self-centred narcissists who constitute the current leadership of the Labour (non-Tory section) Party helped this along by wasting the first hour of the debate obsessively complaining about this.
Putin's popularity in Russia is high (80%+ - essentially everyone except the Moscow and St Petersburg middle classes who are outside the kleptocracy) based upon three things, only one of which is sustainable:
1. restoration of law and order 2. good fortune to have presided over a boom in the value of energy exports (currently not so) 3. revival of Soviet - sorry, Russian - pride with the annexation of Crimea.
We have seen with both Afghanistan and Chechnya that Russia is not immune to popular discontent based on body bag counts. A limited number of deaths that are the cost of successful overseas adventures will bolster Putin's popularity. I would expect higher numbers, or deaths resulting from unsuccessful adventures, or terrorism coming home to roost to have a significant adverse impact on his ratings if sustained.
Thanks for your reply. If anything, another military triumph may well add to Putin's popularity.
I don't think there is much up side to Putin's popularity. All those who could be won over by military triumphs are already in his column. Those against him are those who believe in democracy, freedom of speech and the press, human rights - in particular gay rights, and those who rail against the kleptocracy. I don't see them being won over by successes against ISIS.
That's not quite true. Several prominent figures in what might be called the liberal opposition made approving noises about the annexation of Crimea.
Turkey is a historic Russian bogeyman and Erdogan has foolishly given the Russians a propaganda tool.
But those who approved of the Crimean Annexation are already in his column. So we are really talking about those for whom confrontation with Turkey would make Putin more popular. Can't see that being a lot of people.
Yes I suppose the up side is relative. It's about keeping people in his column who in other circumstances would be tempted to flirt with alternatives.
Agreed. Although it will invite the tiresome talk of "colonialism", part of me does think the West needs to take it upon ourselves to redraw the map in that part of the world, into countries that will make for a more stable settlement in the long run.
I've slowly been heading this way, as anyone reading my posts on here for the last few years will have noticed. The biggest issues to my mind area:
1) Imposing it can be problematic, both in the short term and long term. 2) When a country splits in this manner, it can cause massive population movements.
For 1), we have to ask whether Sunni, Shia, Alawite and Kurd can be represented together by the same government. History has shown it is difficult, which is exactly why strongmen have been needed to run these countries, at the expense of periodic atrocities. *If* locals can be persuaded then the imposition need not be impossible - and it would have to be agreed locally.
For 2), we have already had massive population movements because of the civil war. That ship has mostly sailed.
Personally, I would try favouring a series of semi-autonomous regions rather than splitting the countr(y/ies) up into separate states, at least at first. This would lead to a similar situation to the Kurdish Regional Government in Iraq, except over the whole country. This federal approach might allow Syria and Iraq to remain as whole entities, whilst giving some autonomy to local populations. It might act as a pressure-relief valve on discontent.
It will also cost a lot of money. But at the end of the day, money will be much of the answer to keep the groups on our side or in check.
Seema Malhotra,only available with Shadsy at 66-1,makes up my dutching bet in the next Labour leader market.Much too big and that gives me 3 runners.She also came out with a very nuanced against in the syriavote.
Woodcock was heckled by well-respected shadow City Minister (!!) Richard Burgon - one of the dimmest bulbs in the labour pack.
So busy on STW events, I wonder if he's found which City the City is in yet.
Dan Hodges @DPJHodges 15m15 minutes ago Not content with encouraging a march on his own party's HQ yesterday @RichardBurgon is now heckling his own colleague @JWoodcockMP.
I hope Woodcock has some friends, his health can be fragile.
A load of Corbynites have hijacked my twitter notifications and are telling me that Alan Johnson is a class traitor and a Tory. Dear Me, what a world I live in these days.
Really?, the affable postman from Paddington is now a class traitor and Tory scum? - It’s very hard to comprehend the thinking behind these nasty Corbynites.
I think that Tory has now been redefined to mean anyone who doesn't support Corbyn
In the same way as that a lesbian is any woman who refuses an offer of going for a drink
Agreed. Although it will invite the tiresome talk of "colonialism", part of me does think the West needs to take it upon ourselves to redraw the map in that part of the world, into countries that will make for a more stable settlement in the long run.
I've slowly been heading this way, as anyone reading my posts on here for the last few years will have noticed. The biggest issues to my mind area:
1) Imposing it can be problematic, both in the short term and long term. 2) When a country splits in this manner, it can cause massive population movements.
For 1), we have to ask whether Sunni, Shia, Alawite and Kurd can be represented together by the same government. History has shown it is difficult, which is exactly why strongmen have been needed to run these countries, at the expense of periodic atrocities. *If* locals can be persuaded then the imposition need not be impossible - and it would have to be agreed locally.
For 2), we have already had massive population movements because of the civil war. That ship has mostly sailed.
Personally, I would try favouring a series of semi-autonomous regions rather than splitting the countr(y/ies) up into separate states, at least at first. This would lead to a similar situation to the Kurdish Regional Government in Iraq, except over the whole country. This federal approach might allow Syria and Iraq to remain as whole entities, whilst giving some autonomy to local populations. It might act as a pressure-relief valve on discontent.
It will also cost a lot of money. But at the end of the day, money will be much of the answer to keep the groups on our side or in check.
I never thought it was such a bad idea when Biden suggested it. The big problem I foresaw was how to divvie up Iraq's oil revenues between the successor states in order to encourage a peaceful transition.
But, it was shat on from a great height, particularly by those who argued that Iraq must remain integral - I suspect argued to avoid recriminations of colonialism. I hate when we second guess ourselves out of doing the right thing. Take the hit and move on, it would have been less costly in the long run.
I thought (and might be wrong) it is to remove the threat from ISIS and alN in the short term, and in the long term to support the Vienna peace talks in working towards a transitional government that might be able to bring peace to Syria.
I am not going to suggest that you might be wrong, I merely point out that your idea of the end game doesn't seem to tie up very closely with what HMG is suggesting in Parliament this very afternoon.
On more important matters: did you download the Elite:Horizons Beta and if so is it ny good?
Mr Llama, I have indeed downloaded it. Unfortunately when I specified my work PC (now my gaming PC) I gave it a very fast processor (needed for work) and a relatively low-class graphics card. When I first approached a planet it looked like a virus with spikes protruding into space; an update of the card drivers fixed that. But now when I land the planet's surface is odd, to say the least.
Other people have seen these effects, and apparently they are being looked into. But in the meantime I'm considering getting a new PC specifically for gaming. Hopefully it will see me to at least season 5 of the game.
I might even try building one. I haven't done that for fifteen years though, and it costs more.
Comments
On more important matters: did you download the Elite:Horizons Beta and if so is it ny good?
I posted an article about this a few days ago, including a map of the countries the groups are 'active' in. It's basically the entire ME and North Africa.
Which is why I've been saying all along that ISIS will just move off to one of those countries. Therefore we need to strike the ideology as well as the people.
I am not advocating that as a solution.
Full credit to Kevin Foster on this who is explaining his reasons for voting "for" to his largely hostile Facebook questioners.
NBC News: ISIS releases video showing beheading of alleged Russian spy
@calmsnbc · 10m10 minutes ago
Cal Perry Retweeted Jesse Rodriguez
Executioner in video is speaking Russian ... with accent - message clearly directed at #Moscow.
Labour MPs can vote any way they like. And Corbyn will take note. As will Maomentum, Stop the War and anyone thinking of deselecting.
@socialist_dave: @DPJHodges @RichardBurgon @JWoodcockMP John Woodcock will never be able to wipe all that blood from his hands.
The shadow cabinet here don;t have Le Pen breathing down their necks.
ISIS are idiots if they believe they can win a battle vs an enemy which has Russia, the rest of Europe, China and the US on the same side.
I'd never heard of Woodcock, but I'd guess we now know one of those people always giving the media a blow by blow of angry PLP exchanges.
Ultimately, one has to address the grievances in Sunni areas on both Iraq and Syria if ISIS is to have no sanctuary and support in the long term. Perhaps Biden was not so wrong to suggest carving up Iraq into its constituent parts. Perhaps we should add Syria into the mix to create new state borders more reflective of ethhic, cultural and religious reality.
While I hate identity politics within Western states, sometimes it is the obvious way to solve internecine problems.
That said, nobody expected Cao Cao to lose at Red Cliffs. We must hope Daesh doesn't have a Kongming-style genius.
@ParlyApp: Vicious exchanges between @RichardBurgon @JWoodcockMP on Lab backbenches - peacemakers @RuthSmeeth @SDoughtyMP
You mean Russia does not have to pay for diversity officers?
So busy on STW events, I wonder if he's found which City the City is in yet.
Dan Hodges @DPJHodges 15m15 minutes ago
Not content with encouraging a march on his own party's HQ yesterday @RichardBurgon is now heckling his own colleague @JWoodcockMP.
1. restoration of law and order
2. good fortune to have presided over a boom in the value of energy exports (currently not so)
3. revival of Soviet - sorry, Russian - pride with the annexation of Crimea.
We have seen with both Afghanistan and Chechnya that Russia is not immune to popular discontent based on body bag counts. A limited number of deaths that are the cost of successful overseas adventures will bolster Putin's popularity. I would expect higher numbers, or deaths resulting from unsuccessful adventures, or terrorism coming home to roost to have a significant adverse impact on his ratings if sustained.
That's added to the debate.
My understanding of the Islamic idea of armageddon is nil, but if it bears any relationship to the biblical description, they are expecting God to weigh in on their side.
So not idiots, just believers.
Poland was saying it wouldn't accept the quotas (which it voted for, annoying certain other countries who thought it was against) following the Paris attacks. The countries which voted against, such as the Czech Republic, will not necessarily be enamoured with the Chancellor if this occurs.
Ms. Apocalypse, quite. Intriguing that some on both left and right oppose the current proposal because they feel it doesn't go far enough. I think some genuinely believe that, and others are using it as a fig leaf to conceal their own limp position.
They're zealots. The smallest disagreement is heresy.
Edited extra bit: Miss Cyclefree, yes. At least one person from each of the permanent five UN Security Council members (each of whom has a veto, of course) has been killed.
Redrawing states on the basis of ethnic/religious lines is pretty much what happened in Europe after both World Wars: either boundaries were redrawn or populations moved or both. In the end that may be the only way forward in the Middle East if the people there can't live in peace with themselves, never mind anyone else.
Or are you just asking whether I have a winkie?
My apologies.
Turkey is a historic Russian bogeyman and Erdogan has foolishly given the Russians a propaganda tool.
They have given up on the make the whites angry approach. Its scare the ethnic minorities instead.
https://twitter.com/Holbornlolz/status/672118845092601856
QT what a bunch. Will the Stop The Traffic marchers be invited to turn up?
The MPs let the side down.
Appears they have given up on the WWC. Not surprising as Jihadi Jez and friends despise everything about them.
Meanwhile the Tories are cheerfully redefining the Labour party as "Terrorist Sympathisers".
The self-righteous self-centred narcissists who constitute the current leadership of the Labour (non-Tory section) Party helped this along by wasting the first hour of the debate obsessively complaining about this.
https://rusi.org/commentary/sound-strategy-or-dodgy-dossier-cameron’s-case-syria-strikes
1) Imposing it can be problematic, both in the short term and long term.
2) When a country splits in this manner, it can cause massive population movements.
For 1), we have to ask whether Sunni, Shia, Alawite and Kurd can be represented together by the same government. History has shown it is difficult, which is exactly why strongmen have been needed to run these countries, at the expense of periodic atrocities. *If* locals can be persuaded then the imposition need not be impossible - and it would have to be agreed locally.
For 2), we have already had massive population movements because of the civil war. That ship has mostly sailed.
Personally, I would try favouring a series of semi-autonomous regions rather than splitting the countr(y/ies) up into separate states, at least at first. This would lead to a similar situation to the Kurdish Regional Government in Iraq, except over the whole country. This federal approach might allow Syria and Iraq to remain as whole entities, whilst giving some autonomy to local populations. It might act as a pressure-relief valve on discontent.
It will also cost a lot of money. But at the end of the day, money will be much of the answer to keep the groups on our side or in check.
Love the tweet that Mr Flip-flop has got another 3 hours to change his mind again!!
But, it was shat on from a great height, particularly by those who argued that Iraq must remain integral - I suspect argued to avoid recriminations of colonialism. I hate when we second guess ourselves out of doing the right thing. Take the hit and move on, it would have been less costly in the long run.
Other people have seen these effects, and apparently they are being looked into. But in the meantime I'm considering getting a new PC specifically for gaming. Hopefully it will see me to at least season 5 of the game.
I might even try building one. I haven't done that for fifteen years though, and it costs more.