politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As George Osborne prepares make his statement ComRes issue
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Moving pensions onto an ISA-style tax model (from EET to TEE, to use the jargon) would do the following:
1) effectively remove the tax advantages of the tax free lump sum for pensions
2) take higher rate tax relief away from all higher rate taxpayers but only give tax relief at that rate to those of them whose pensions would also be taxed at the higher rate
I'm sure none of this has entered the Chancellor's head.0 -
Some kind of real terms rise in the defence budget.
2% target met for the next 10 years. Big one there.0 -
When? Is he just pre-announcing next March's budget rise?MaxPB said:£11k tax free allowance.
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IDS over the moon0
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NMW £9ph by 2020 Living Wage - Low Pay Commission to agree new rises. £7.20 next year.
WOW.0 -
Living wage wheeze0
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£9 living wage for over 25s..
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National Living Wage0
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wtf just happened?0
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More bullshit on national living wages - scrap the tax credits and the government interference. Smoke and mirrors stuff from Osborne.0
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Holy shit.0
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Labour's raison d'etre?0
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Incoming zinger from George,0
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It is going to be infinitely more complex for those receiving >5k in dividend income each year.DaemonBarber said:
And changes to thresholds too.Philip_Thompson said:
c) are paying Corporation Tax.Mortimer said:
As I've argued ad nauseum, the difference between tax on salary and tax on dividends is because if you're receiving dividends you are:edmundintokyo said:
I guess he has to do that because Britain has this ludicrously huge difference between the tax you pay on salary and the tax you pay on dividends, and he's making it even ludicrouslier huger.foxinsoxuk said:
Sounds like the aim is to stop the tax dodge where people form companies and pay out as dividends rather than salary. Have to do my sums to see how it affects my own finances.TGOHF said:
It's much simpler for those that earn less than 5k pa from divis.Mortimer said:Dividend taxation sounds much more complex, despite being sold as a simplefication...
a) risking capital (which will already have been taxed at some point)
b) not receiving the same employment benefits as the employed
That is being reduced, you need to look at it as a whole package of reforms.
My accountant is going to earn his fee the next couple of years/
Details needed, because, IIRC, he didn't mention doing anything with the notional 10% tax credit that comes with dividends.
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Bear in mind if he is reducing overall spending then that will have Barnett consequentials so Holyrood will lose moneyPatrick said:He seems to have forgotten to screw the Jocks.
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NMW will be NLW £9/hr in 2020 ?!0
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Osborne really is Gordon Brown MK II.0
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On the day of the foxhunting announcement,Osborne just shot Labour's fox on low wages.0
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Isn't £7.20 below the current minimum wage ?0
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OBR says 'only a fractional difference in employment' re NLW.
Small firms Emp NI cut. 4 employees tax free.0 -
Speechless.0
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Bingo! National Living wage!!!!
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WTF, didn't he also combine NI/IC.0
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My accountant issues a budget update doc/guide... I think it may take a bit longer to publish than usualMortimer said:
It is going to be infinitely more complex for those receiving >5k in dividend income each year.DaemonBarber said:
And changes to thresholds too.Philip_Thompson said:
c) are paying Corporation Tax.Mortimer said:
As I've argued ad nauseum, the difference between tax on salary and tax on dividends is because if you're receiving dividends you are:edmundintokyo said:
I guess he has to do that because Britain has this ludicrously huge difference between the tax you pay on salary and the tax you pay on dividends, and he's making it even ludicrouslier huger.foxinsoxuk said:
Sounds like the aim is to stop the tax dodge where people form companies and pay out as dividends rather than salary. Have to do my sums to see how it affects my own finances.TGOHF said:
It's much simpler for those that earn less than 5k pa from divis.Mortimer said:Dividend taxation sounds much more complex, despite being sold as a simplefication...
a) risking capital (which will already have been taxed at some point)
b) not receiving the same employment benefits as the employed
That is being reduced, you need to look at it as a whole package of reforms.
My accountant is going to earn his fee the next couple of years/
Details needed, because, IIRC, he didn't mention doing anything with the notional 10% tax credit that comes with dividends.0 -
Chukka must be glad he is sitting this one out ..0
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What's Hattie tot to say about the budget.. just a load of old tried and failed opposition policies.0
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Fag packet calc - the increase in Div tax is a multiple of any benefit from the reduction of Corp tax for the average small business.Philip_Thompson said:
c) are paying Corporation Tax.Mortimer said:
As I've argued ad nauseum, the difference between tax on salary and tax on dividends is because if you're receiving dividends you are:edmundintokyo said:
I guess he has to do that because Britain has this ludicrously huge difference between the tax you pay on salary and the tax you pay on dividends, and he's making it even ludicrouslier huger.foxinsoxuk said:
Sounds like the aim is to stop the tax dodge where people form companies and pay out as dividends rather than salary. Have to do my sums to see how it affects my own finances.TGOHF said:
It's much simpler for those that earn less than 5k pa from divis.Mortimer said:Dividend taxation sounds much more complex, despite being sold as a simplefication...
a) risking capital (which will already have been taxed at some point)
b) not receiving the same employment benefits as the employed
That is being reduced, you need to look at it as a whole package of reforms.0 -
Labour's hen house is full of Tory foxes with shotguns0
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Something to remember, £9/hr by 2020 isn't that much over an inflation rise in minimum wage every year.0
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This is an enormously important budget. Most of the next five years' politics are set out in it.0
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Sounded rather like Hitler - thought he had said something like Ein Reich, Ein Fuhrer, Ein Volk at the end.0
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Well he may have pulled the rabbit out of hat there for small businesses. Details on employer NI reform needed.0
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So a quiet and inconsequential budget then!0
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I always worry about Budgets that get loudly cheered on the day.0
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Hattie getting deja vu from her stint after the exit poll was announced.0
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As Gaby Hinsliff tweets: God knows how labour is going to respond to this.0
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Hi Watford, what does that mean? (Serious question not being funny)watford30 said:
Fag packet calc - the increase in Div tax is a multiple of any benefit from the reduction of Corp tax for the average small business.Philip_Thompson said:
c) are paying Corporation Tax.Mortimer said:
As I've argued ad nauseum, the difference between tax on salary and tax on dividends is because if you're receiving dividends you are:edmundintokyo said:
I guess he has to do that because Britain has this ludicrously huge difference between the tax you pay on salary and the tax you pay on dividends, and he's making it even ludicrouslier huger.foxinsoxuk said:
Sounds like the aim is to stop the tax dodge where people form companies and pay out as dividends rather than salary. Have to do my sums to see how it affects my own finances.TGOHF said:
It's much simpler for those that earn less than 5k pa from divis.Mortimer said:Dividend taxation sounds much more complex, despite being sold as a simplefication...
a) risking capital (which will already have been taxed at some point)
b) not receiving the same employment benefits as the employed
That is being reduced, you need to look at it as a whole package of reforms.0 -
That was my initial gut and first spreadsheet reactions show too...watford30 said:
Fag packet calc - the increase in Div tax is a multiple of any benefit from the reduction of Corp tax for the average small business.Philip_Thompson said:
c) are paying Corporation Tax.Mortimer said:
As I've argued ad nauseum, the difference between tax on salary and tax on dividends is because if you're receiving dividends you are:edmundintokyo said:
I guess he has to do that because Britain has this ludicrously huge difference between the tax you pay on salary and the tax you pay on dividends, and he's making it even ludicrouslier huger.foxinsoxuk said:
Sounds like the aim is to stop the tax dodge where people form companies and pay out as dividends rather than salary. Have to do my sums to see how it affects my own finances.TGOHF said:
It's much simpler for those that earn less than 5k pa from divis.Mortimer said:Dividend taxation sounds much more complex, despite being sold as a simplefication...
a) risking capital (which will already have been taxed at some point)
b) not receiving the same employment benefits as the employed
That is being reduced, you need to look at it as a whole package of reforms.
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Boy George!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!0
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Heir to Brown!antifrank said:This is an enormously important budget. Most of the next five years' politics are set out in it.
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No its £6.50TGOHF said:Isn't £7.20 below the current minimum wage ?
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Borrowing revised down from ££76bn to £69.5bn
8% surcharge on bank profits from 2017.0 -
Hattie got the wrong script.0
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Telling that Harman had Yvette Cooper next to her to brief her during the budget.0
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2014 NMW: £6.50/hrFrancisUrquhart said:Something to remember, £9/hr by 2020 isn't that much over an inflation rise in minimum wage every year.
6 years at say 3% inflation (High side estimate) = £7.76
A fair bit over actually.0 -
Damn, it looks like the dividend credit is going.0
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I reckon this will be the image/video of the day
https://twitter.com/AmberSkyNews/status/6187621394283888640 -
Cor dear hattie struggling a bit0
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Hattie goes for man not ball.0
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Telling response from Harriet.
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She's got no idea and wibbling - I feel quite sorry for her.
No one is listening either.FrancisUrquhart said:Hattie got the wrong script.
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The quiet man is here to bray.TheScreamingEagles said:I reckon this will be the image/video of the day
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I struggling to think of a budget with as much major new stuff in it. Astonishing given that this same Chancellor has already presented a budget this year.
The dividend tax changes need some analysis - for people paying themselves by dividends from a small or service company, there is presumably a benefit from the £5K tax-free allowance offset by a loss on the higher rate thereafter. So I think that whether you are a gainer or loser will depend on the amount you take out.0 -
Anyone catch what was announced re alcoholic liquor duties?0
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"Living wage" timed just nicely for 2020... Wonder what will be happening that year??????0
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A shift in the salary versus dividend balance then.Mortimer said:Damn, it looks like the dividend credit is going.
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So largely as expected, cuts to inheritance tax, fuel duty frozen, income tax for middle and low earners and corporation tax. Also welfare capped to £20,000 and working age benefits frozen for 4 years, tax credits reduced and capped to 2 children, housing benefit cut and ended for under 21s and social housing charged at market rent for wealthy, 1% cap on public pay increases for next 4 years. BBC to pay cost of free TV licenses themselves. A commitment to defence spending too.
Icing on the cake the increase in the living wage, but with scrapping of some NI payments for small business care needs to be taken to ensure state pension and contributory JSA entitlements are maintained0 -
£9/hr only for over 25s though.Pulpstar said:
2014 NMW: £6.50/hrFrancisUrquhart said:Something to remember, £9/hr by 2020 isn't that much over an inflation rise in minimum wage every year.
6 years at say 3% inflation (High side estimate) = £7.76
A fair bit over actually.
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Delighted that everyone now believes the Living Wage is a good idea. How swiftly views change, eh? If the Tories implement Labour policies that's not a problem for me.0
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I wonder how many rich socialists are now going to have to pay economic rent.0
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"Government sources have suggested that the rate would probably rise to £8 by the end of the next Parliament if it continued on current trends."Pulpstar said:
2014 NMW: £6.50/hrFrancisUrquhart said:Something to remember, £9/hr by 2020 isn't that much over an inflation rise in minimum wage every year.
6 years at say 3% inflation (High side estimate) = £7.76
A fair bit over actually.
£1 more per hour...so ~£1800 per year. Depends how much is being taken away from all the other things.0 -
18-24s don't bother to vote though :PTGOHF said:
£9/hr only for over 25s though.Pulpstar said:
2014 NMW: £6.50/hrFrancisUrquhart said:Something to remember, £9/hr by 2020 isn't that much over an inflation rise in minimum wage every year.
6 years at say 3% inflation (High side estimate) = £7.76
A fair bit over actually.0 -
Conservatives cheering the poor getting a pay rise - detoxification complete.williamglenn said:
The quiet man is here to bray.TheScreamingEagles said:I reckon this will be the image/video of the day
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to be fair, most budget responses are like this.Slackbladder said:Cor dear hattie struggling a bit
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I reckon there's two major Ed Miliband policies George appropriated today, the living wage and non doms.SouthamObserver said:Delighted that everyone now believes the Living Wage is a good idea. How swiftly views change, eh? If the Tories implement Labour policies that's not a problem for me.
Labour should bring back Ed.0 -
No, but its a problem for Labour..SouthamObserver said:Delighted that everyone now believes the Living Wage is a good idea. How swiftly views change, eh? If the Tories implement Labour policies that's not a problem for me.
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Personal complications aside and the attack on smaller and esp. family owned businesses aside, am very supportive of the efforts to make individuals less reliant on the state.
(:-) Just wish the state was a little less reliant on me as a result, but can't have it all ways!)0 -
Quite a few Labour policies were actually reasonably popular - the country just didn't trust Ed, Ed and Alex at the tiller.TheScreamingEagles said:
I reckon there's two major Ed Miliband policies George appropriated today, the living wage and non doms.SouthamObserver said:Delighted that everyone now believes the Living Wage is a good idea. How swiftly views change, eh? If the Tories implement Labour policies that's not a problem for me.
Labour should bring back Ed.
This is smart politics by George.0 -
So basically it is just another band to the minimum wage. I would prefer to see it based upon time worked. Seems highly unfair that somebody joins the workforce at 16, works hard, gets trained and 3 years later an employer can still pay them £6.50.TGOHF said:
£9/hr only for over 25s though.Pulpstar said:
2014 NMW: £6.50/hrFrancisUrquhart said:Something to remember, £9/hr by 2020 isn't that much over an inflation rise in minimum wage every year.
6 years at say 3% inflation (High side estimate) = £7.76
A fair bit over actually.
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I think you will find there are those of us on the right who have been calling for a much higher minimum wage for over two years now.SouthamObserver said:Delighted that everyone now believes the Living Wage is a good idea. How swiftly views change, eh? If the Tories implement Labour policies that's not a problem for me.
Glad to see the Chancellor take up the cause as well.
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Len McCluskey for one!SquareRoot said:I wonder how many rich socialists are now going to have to pay economic rent.
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Yep, non-doms too.TheScreamingEagles said:
I reckon there's two major Ed Miliband policies George appropriated today, the living wage and non doms.SouthamObserver said:Delighted that everyone now believes the Living Wage is a good idea. How swiftly views change, eh? If the Tories implement Labour policies that's not a problem for me.
Labour should bring back Ed.
It's not really credible to say the LDs held the Tories back on either, so this is clearly something the Tories feel they have to do.
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Except only the Tories have the strong economy that makes it viable.SouthamObserver said:Delighted that everyone now believes the Living Wage is a good idea. How swiftly views change, eh? If the Tories implement Labour policies that's not a problem for me.
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Does anyone seriously believe we are going to be in surplus in 2019-2020? As always with Osborne, this was politics over economics. One of the most captivating and game-changing budgets for many years, however.0
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FrancisUrquhart said:
So basically it is just another band to the minimum wage. I would prefer to see it based upon time worked. Seems highly unfair that somebody joins the workforce at 16, works hard, gets trained and 3 years later an employer can still pay them £6.50.TGOHF said:
£9/hr only for over 25s though.Pulpstar said:
2014 NMW: £6.50/hrFrancisUrquhart said:Something to remember, £9/hr by 2020 isn't that much over an inflation rise in minimum wage every year.
6 years at say 3% inflation (High side estimate) = £7.76
A fair bit over actually.
Those are minimum wages, not targets or the amounts expected for trained workers.
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Companies will be happy to pay higher wages if taxes are cut which is the balance Osborne strikes.SouthamObserver said:Delighted that everyone now believes the Living Wage is a good idea. How swiftly views change, eh? If the Tories implement Labour policies that's not a problem for me.
Expecting companies to pay higher wages while increasing their taxes (as Ed proposed) was bonkers.
Big difference. Lower taxes = higher wages.0 -
The Daily Mail needs to comprise a listPatrick said:
Len McCluskey for one!SquareRoot said:I wonder how many rich socialists are now going to have to pay economic rent.
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Possibly. We'll have to see how those cuts fall.SquareRoot said:
No, but its a problem for Labour..SouthamObserver said:Delighted that everyone now believes the Living Wage is a good idea. How swiftly views change, eh? If the Tories implement Labour policies that's not a problem for me.
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I know, but we know what has happened and does happened with any of these things. It becomes the level of the ceiling give or take a bit.MarkHopkins said:FrancisUrquhart said:
So basically it is just another band to the minimum wage. I would prefer to see it based upon time worked. Seems highly unfair that somebody joins the workforce at 16, works hard, gets trained and 3 years later an employer can still pay them £6.50.TGOHF said:
£9/hr only for over 25s though.Pulpstar said:
2014 NMW: £6.50/hrFrancisUrquhart said:Something to remember, £9/hr by 2020 isn't that much over an inflation rise in minimum wage every year.
6 years at say 3% inflation (High side estimate) = £7.76
A fair bit over actually.
Those are minimum wages, not targets or the amounts expected for trained workers.
Out of interest, I took a look last week at random jobs in the local paper across a wide variety of sector just out on interest and they all had something in common, £6.50/hr.0 -
Yes absolutely I do (so long as we're not in recession).Life_ina_market_town said:Does anyone seriously believe we are going to be in surplus in 2019-2020? As always with Osborne, this was politics over economics. One of the most captivating and game-changing budgets for many years, however.
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George's campaign to smoke out the cheerleaders and astroturfers.SouthamObserver said:Delighted that everyone now believes the Living Wage is a good idea. How swiftly views change, eh? If the Tories implement Labour policies that's not a problem for me.
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Three areas where the Tories are weak have been addressed today:SouthamObserver said:
Yep, non-doms too.TheScreamingEagles said:
I reckon there's two major Ed Miliband policies George appropriated today, the living wage and non doms.SouthamObserver said:Delighted that everyone now believes the Living Wage is a good idea. How swiftly views change, eh? If the Tories implement Labour policies that's not a problem for me.
Labour should bring back Ed.
It's not really credible to say the LDs held the Tories back on either, so this is clearly something the Tories feel they have to do.
Rich mates - hit the non-doms
On the side of landlords - hit their offsets
Hate the poor - introduce a living wage
All in all, it was a good budget, just need to delve into the detail.0 -
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Did Hattie actually listen to the Chancellor, or is she just reading the script she wrote after reading the papers this morning?0
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Harriet's response is like someone who has just witnessed Pearl Harbour - and chooses to focus on the noise pollution on a Sunday morning.....0
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Only for some small businesses, though needs to ensure still entitlement to state pensions, contributory JSA based on IC contributionsFrancisUrquhart said:WTF, didn't he also combine NI/IC.
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GO's living wage of £9 higher than the SNP manifesto pledge of just £8.70.
Perhaps they should have the powers devolved to block this ?0 -
More a case, she's watched Pearl Harbour, whilst everyone else watched Tora! Tora! Tora!MarqueeMark said:Harriet's response is like someone who has just witnessed Pearl Harbour - and chooses to focus on the noise pollution on a Sunday morning.....
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FrancisUrquhart said:
I know, but we know what has happened and does happened with any of these things. It becomes the level of the ceiling give or take a bit.MarkHopkins said:FrancisUrquhart said:
So basically it is just another band to the minimum wage. I would prefer to see it based upon time worked. Seems highly unfair that somebody joins the workforce at 16, works hard, gets trained and 3 years later an employer can still pay them £6.50.TGOHF said:
£9/hr only for over 25s though.Pulpstar said:
2014 NMW: £6.50/hrFrancisUrquhart said:Something to remember, £9/hr by 2020 isn't that much over an inflation rise in minimum wage every year.
6 years at say 3% inflation (High side estimate) = £7.76
A fair bit over actually.
Those are minimum wages, not targets or the amounts expected for trained workers.
Out of interest, I took a look last week at random jobs in the local paper across a wide variety of sector just out on interest and they all had something in common, £6.50/hr.
A lot of jobs put in the local paper are unskilled/starter jobs though.
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Hattie is claiming Ozzie is making working people worse off.
Umm...0 -
This is a HUGE budget. It does two things:
1. The centre ground has moved significantly towards 'sound money' macro-economics; and
2. The individual benefits as the state retreats, shifting expectations of what you get vs what you give.
There'll be acres of wailing and gnashing from Polly. But by 2020 the facts on the ground will be well established. The UK will be a freer, more competitive, more self reliant place.0 -
Yvette looks like she'd like to commit hari-kari.
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No, Ed Miliband had the bonkers idea of abolishing non-dom status altogether, which would have been counter-productive. This is a tightening up of the criteria to avoid abuse - not the same at all.SouthamObserver said:Yep, non-doms too.
On the 'living wage', what Osborne has actually done is announced a significant increase in the Minimum Wage with some re-branding. The most important thing about it is that he has, thank goodness, avoided the disastrous effect that this would have had on employment for the young if it had applied to under-25s.0 -
So what did you know in advance?! Did it appear?MarqueeMark said:
Harriet's response is like someone who has just witnessed Pearl Harbour - and chooses to focus on the noise pollution on a Sunday morning.....
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It's a fairly standard response from LotO. It's a toughgig to respond to the budget. This one perhaps more so given some of the tanks placed on Labour's lawn.0
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Yes, sure, but we know there has been a real affect that minimum wage has anchored the top end of pay for unskilled and semi-skilled jobs. I am just saying that employers if they want can take on 16 years old and never pay them any more until 25.MarkHopkins said:FrancisUrquhart said:
I know, but we know what has happened and does happened with any of these things. It becomes the level of the ceiling give or take a bit.MarkHopkins said:FrancisUrquhart said:
So basically it is just another band to the minimum wage. I would prefer to see it based upon time worked. Seems highly unfair that somebody joins the workforce at 16, works hard, gets trained and 3 years later an employer can still pay them £6.50.TGOHF said:
£9/hr only for over 25s though.Pulpstar said:
2014 NMW: £6.50/hrFrancisUrquhart said:Something to remember, £9/hr by 2020 isn't that much over an inflation rise in minimum wage every year.
6 years at say 3% inflation (High side estimate) = £7.76
A fair bit over actually.
Those are minimum wages, not targets or the amounts expected for trained workers.
Out of interest, I took a look last week at random jobs in the local paper across a wide variety of sector just out on interest and they all had something in common, £6.50/hr.
A lot of jobs put in the local paper are unskilled/starter jobs though.
It might also have a perverse affect that 25 year olds become less attractive to employ.
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The budget documents have now been published online here.0