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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As George Osborne prepares make his statement ComRes issue

SystemSystem Posts: 11,724
edited July 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As George Osborne prepares make his statement ComRes issue a budget poll

As Osborne prepares to give budget speech ComRes/Mail poll on likely measures just published pic.twitter.com/pMCexzsjPk

Read the full story here


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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,702
    This has all the feelings of the Omnishambles budget
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,702
    England cricket = Ed Miliband
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    I'm on the sofa, cat on lap...
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,302
    edited July 2015
    Remember Lynton's words of wisdom on this kind of polling...
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,028
    edited July 2015
    I'll have a go:

    1) Support
    2) Support
    3) Whichever raises the most revenue. (Don't know I guess)
    4) Support.
  • Options
    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Sky had a nice one re polling earlier - most wanted benefits cut, but then changed their mind when it came to tax credits...
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Remember Lynton's words of wisdom on this kind of polling...

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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    This has all the feelings of the Omnishambles budget

    A lot of media hysteria about some sensible changes before the Tories are re-elected with an increase in seats a few years later? Sign me up for that.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @tnewtondunn: Budget: Govt insiders suggest nobody will be talking about Osborne easing austerity in an hour's time. Expect significant brutality.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,702
    Philip_Thompson said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    This has all the feelings of the Omnishambles budget

    A lot of media hysteria about some sensible changes before the Tories are re-elected with an increase in seats a few years later? Sign me up for that.
    Yeah, but an Omnishambles II might bugger up George Osborne's chances of succeeding Dave.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,028
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    England cricket = Ed Miliband

    I've actually traded out the draw. The pitch is quite pathetic - if England play properly there should be no issues.
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    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    So the UK voters think that the Greeks should accept austerity and not be so profligate, but are rather less sure that we should follow the same advice.... They also think that the Greeks should increase taxes and reduce tax reliefs, but for some strange reason don't think we should follow the same prescription.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,302
    edited July 2015
    Philip_Thompson said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    This has all the feelings of the Omnishambles budget

    A lot of media hysteria about some sensible changes before the Tories are re-elected with an increase in seats a few years later? Sign me up for that.
    The whole pasty tax nonsense, what the public and media seemed to totally miss in all the outcry over VAT on pasties is what a total shambles the VAT system is.

    Anybody who spends any time for business or personal use in a place like CostCo where prices are displayed with and without VAT see clear as day just how ludicrous it can be e.g. Jar of nuts, no VAT, jar of nuts, with a handful of M&M's, add 20%, so it is cheaper to buy the nuts and a packet of M&M's separately.
  • Options
    Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,820
    edited July 2015
    FPT:
    rcs1000 said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    DavidL said:

    What I object to in the BTL market is the extent to which rental income is being supported and maintained by HB. If anyone wants to attack BTL for social reasons or otherwise that is surely the point of attack, not debt interest.

    Yes, precisely.

    I came across an interesting pair of statistics recently. I'd be interested in people's guesses as to the correct answers to these two questions (no Googling!):

    1. How often does the average house change hands (i.e. number of years)?

    2. What proportion of housing transactions are new-build?
    14 years
    15-20%

    How did I do?
    Badly, at least if the Investors' Chronicle is to be believed.

    "In the 1980s, the average house was changing hands every 10 years, but this has since climbed to 21 years. ...the sale of existing properties as a proportion of all housing transactions has halved to 35 per cent [i.e. new build is 65%]."

    I must say I was gobsmacked by these figures.

    http://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/2015/06/11/comment/property-matters/property-matters-housing-what-s-back-to-normal-eVz484bAZc6RktNl7iudAJ/article.html

    The whole article is very interesting.
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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    I am wondering whether the SNP have plans to disrupt Osborne’s Budget speech next week.They did this to Lawson back in the late 80s when we ended up having several divisions in the middle of his speech following interruptions which led to the MPs concerned being ‘named’ by the Deputy Speaker. The SNP MPs refused to leave and this led to Votes being called to uphold the Deputy Speaker’s ruling. It caused quite a bit of mayhem at a time when they only had 3 MPs – with 56 the potential is much greater
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,221
    I reckon income tax raised to 22p.
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    I've actually traded out the draw. The pitch is quite pathetic - if England play properly there should be no issues.

    Even as a Welshman I think its a disgrace Cardiff got given a test, with nothing in Manchester or Leeds.

    Shameful
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,028
    The mini rex rabbits in my profile are for sale btw - they are 8 weeks now.

    @Thescreamingeagles You should invest £20 in one :)
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,302
    taffys said:

    I've actually traded out the draw. The pitch is quite pathetic - if England play properly there should be no issues.

    Even as a Welshman I think its a disgrace Cardiff got given a test, with nothing in Manchester or Leeds.

    Shameful

    You are a brave man if you think it will be a draw. Pitch might be pathetic, but England are looking very very nervy and should be 4 down already.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,702
    O/T - Raheem Sterling is a complete [moderated] and I'd rather say nice things about Mark Reckless than about Raheem Sterling
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,028
    tlg86 said:

    I reckon income tax raised to 22p.

    I'll take that - only if NI is scrapped, mind.
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Brand your dog food as *working dog* food and there's no VAT either.
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    This has all the feelings of the Omnishambles budget

    A lot of media hysteria about some sensible changes before the Tories are re-elected with an increase in seats a few years later? Sign me up for that.
    The whole pasty tax nonsense, what the public and media seemed to totally miss in all the outcry over VAT on pasties is what a total shambles the VAT system is.

    Anybody who spends any time for business or personal use in a place like CostCo where prices are displayed with and without VAT see clear as day just how ludicrous it can be e.g. Jar of nuts, no VAT, jar of nuts, with a handful of M&M's, add 20%, so it is cheaper to buy the nuts and a packet of M&M's separately.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,028
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    taffys said:

    I've actually traded out the draw. The pitch is quite pathetic - if England play properly there should be no issues.

    Even as a Welshman I think its a disgrace Cardiff got given a test, with nothing in Manchester or Leeds.

    Shameful

    You are a brave man if you think it will be a draw. Pitch might be pathetic, but England are looking very very nervy and should be 4 down already.
    He was commenting on me... I don't think it'll be a draw but I can see Root/Ballance steadying the ship now and bringing the price in... *he hopes*
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    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    tlg86 said:

    I reckon income tax raised to 22p.

    Political suicide having promised no changes in income tax.
  • Options
    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Do you still work on a stud? Hope I'm not confusing you with another poster!
    Pulpstar said:

    The mini rex rabbits in my profile are for sale btw - they are 8 weeks now.

    @Thescreamingeagles You should invest £20 in one :)

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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,302
    edited July 2015
    Theresa May looks totally knackered...probably not helped by Chillaxing Dave to her right.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,024
    Here goes! Is no-one doing bingo?
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    tlg86 said:

    I reckon income tax raised to 22p.

    No chance. Explicitly ruled out in the manifesto.
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Bags under her bags. Being Home Sec must be a killer task master and always teetering on the edge of some crisis.
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Theresa May looks totally knackered.

  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,302
    Long Term Economic Plan....head...desk...head..desk...
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    This is Ozzie's 7th Budget - how many Chancellors have done more?
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,024
    Plato said:

    Bags under her bags. Being Home Sec must be a killer task master and always teetering on the edge of some crisis.

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Theresa May looks totally knackered.

    Senior pols always seem to age faster than the rest of us. I imagine it's somewhat more stressful than most of us could imagine.
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    DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    O/T - Raheem Sterling is a complete [moderated] and I'd rather say nice things about Mark Reckless than about Raheem Sterling

    Sell the goal-shy cry-baby for £50mil I say...
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,302
    Long Term Economic Plan....head...desk...head..desk...
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,702
    DaemonBarber said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    O/T - Raheem Sterling is a complete [moderated] and I'd rather say nice things about Mark Reckless than about Raheem Sterling

    Sell the goal-shy cry-baby for £50mil I say...
    I agree
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    notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Long Term Economic Plan....head...desk...head..desk...

    Simple slogan that created a majority!
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    Life_ina_market_townLife_ina_market_town Posts: 2,319
    Plato said:

    This is Ozzie's 7th Budget - how many Chancellors have done more?

    Brown for one. Longevity is no measure of success.
  • Options
    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Osborne - Almost 1m more jobs will be created in next 5yrs.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,302
    What does "cutting deficit as same rate as last parliament" mean? Does that mean slower than outlined 3 months ago?
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,702
    Plato said:

    This is Ozzie's 7th Budget - how many Chancellors have done more?

    Gordon Brown and Lloyd George, I reckon
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,283
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Long Term Economic Plan....head...desk...head..desk...

    Do you think his speaking notes have hashtags?
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    DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    nothing of substance yet...
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    What a racket from the hecklers - WTF is the speaker up to ?
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,302
    edited July 2015
    Yes, I was right...he is kicking things even further down the road. Going to be 1 year later before we get surplus, and in reality we know it won't be.
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    Life_ina_market_townLife_ina_market_town Posts: 2,319
    The Conservatives are putting back the first year of a surplus yet again. This repeats what has been done in nearly every one of Osborne's previous budgets. Expect it to continue in this Parliament.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Life_ina_market_town said:

    The Conservatives are putting back the first year of a surplus yet again. This repeats what has been done in nearly every one of Osborne's previous budgets. Expect it to continue in this Parliament.

    isn't he just lowering the bar so he can beat it as the next election approaches ?
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,702
    First trap set for the new Labour leader by Ozzy
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @Alison_McGovern: Will Chancellor Osborne *ever* preside over a surplus? Only If he's still in the job in 2020, according to him. #SummerBudget
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    notmenotme Posts: 3,293
    That 'fiscal charter' principal GO just outlined is how local government manage their finances over the medium term.
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    [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 0
    Pace is slower - but the end point is crystal clear. Not sure if Labour can match it. The deficit is going to be eliminated. Good.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    1% growth threshold set for the new surplus requirement. Sensible threshold.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,667
    1% public sector pay rises until 2019/20. Unions are going to be spitting blood.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    "7 day NHS" - won't someone think of the workers ?

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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    1% payrises for public sector workers over next 4yrs. That's one way to get more into the private sector.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,702
    TGOHF said:

    "7 day NHS" - won't someone think of the workers ?

    Poor Andy Burnham. I'm sure HYUFD will be along to tell us why this is a vote winner for Andy Burnham
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    MaxPB said:

    1% public sector pay rises until 2019/20. Unions are going to be spitting blood.

    Above inflation pay rises - what profligate madness is this ?
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    watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    TGOHF said:

    "7 day NHS" - won't someone think of the workers ?

    Oh woe.

    They won't be able to go to church.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,028
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    DaemonBarber said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    O/T - Raheem Sterling is a complete [moderated] and I'd rather say nice things about Mark Reckless than about Raheem Sterling

    Sell the goal-shy cry-baby for £50mil I say...
    I agree
    Last season's recommendation on the match bet between Falcao and Welbeck was an amusingly poor profitable dead heat race.
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    End to permanent non-doms - if you're resident for 15 of last 20yrs - that's it.
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    Life_ina_market_townLife_ina_market_town Posts: 2,319
    Penalties for being taxed by the Revenue (rather than Parliament) under the outrageous GAAR provisions. Insane.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,667
    Hit the non doms hard.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    watford30 said:

    TGOHF said:

    "7 day NHS" - won't someone think of the workers ?

    Oh woe.

    They won't be able to go to church.
    The workers have a right to family time -patients will just have to lump it (or die).

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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,986
    I wonder if the big surprise has something to do with Scotland.
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    Life_ina_market_townLife_ina_market_town Posts: 2,319
    Making foreign companies subject to inheritance tax. That again looks legally incoherent and constitutionally dodgy.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,667
    Interesting idea on bank taxes. Bank levy on its way out, HSBC will be happy. Might just be enough to keep them around.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Life_ina_market_town said:

    Making foreign companies subject to inheritance tax. That again looks legally incoherent and constitutionally dodgy.

    Why if they own British properties? This brings us into line with many other nations.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,028
    Life_ina_market_town said:

    Making foreign companies subject to inheritance tax. That again looks legally incoherent and constitutionally dodgy.

    Is he going to up the house threshold to a million though ?
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    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Quite annoyed I didn't back Ed Balls in the Buzzword bingo
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,960
    Fabulous BOJO Heathrow dig!
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    That was my thinking.
    MaxPB said:

    Interesting idea on bank taxes. Bank levy on its way out, HSBC will be happy. Might just be enough to keep them around.

  • Options
    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 114,702
    Pulpstar said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    DaemonBarber said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    O/T - Raheem Sterling is a complete [moderated] and I'd rather say nice things about Mark Reckless than about Raheem Sterling

    Sell the goal-shy cry-baby for £50mil I say...
    I agree
    Last season's recommendation on the match bet between Falcao and Welbeck was an amusingly poor profitable dead heat race.
    I also backed Rickie Lambert as top Premiership goal scorer last season.

    What was I smoking when I placed that bet?
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    It was most amusing. :smiley:
    Mortimer said:

    Fabulous BOJO Heathrow dig!

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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,028
    Come on Rooty bring the draw back in to 2-1 :D
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    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Life_ina_market_town said:

    Making foreign companies subject to inheritance tax. That again looks legally incoherent and constitutionally dodgy.

    Why if they own British properties? This brings us into line with many other nations.
    Countries I would assume with different legal traditions and constitutional settlements ?
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,960
    Abolishing excise duty?!?
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    Life_ina_market_townLife_ina_market_town Posts: 2,319
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Why if they own British properties? This brings us into line with many other nations.

    Because the whole basis of company law is that property is owned absolutely by the company, which is a separate legal person from its members or shareholders.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,960
    Mortimer said:

    Abolishing excise duty?!?

    Phew. That would have been a bonkers drivers giveaway.

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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,302
    Motorists going to get bashed.
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited July 2015
    New VED bands from 2017 - £140 for 95% of cars. No raises for older cars. Tax going to Roads Fund = hypotheticated!

    MOTs now 4yrs.
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    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    He is going to have another go at personal service companies, after fiascos by previous governments trying to do the same, good luck with that.
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    DaemonBarberDaemonBarber Posts: 1,626
    Roads fund from VED...
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Indigo said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Life_ina_market_town said:

    Making foreign companies subject to inheritance tax. That again looks legally incoherent and constitutionally dodgy.

    Why if they own British properties? This brings us into line with many other nations.
    Countries I would assume with different legal traditions and constitutional settlements ?
    Our constitutional settlement is that Parliament sets the rules. How does this differ from that?
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,667
    Hypothecation of VED!?!

    Big move.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,028
    I pay £30 on my car VED...

    Am I about to be richer or poorer :P ?
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    justin124justin124 Posts: 11,527
    edited July 2015
    No mention of the Balance of Payments. I wonder why? 'Britain is not paying its way in the world'
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    justin124 said:

    No mention of the Balance of Payments. I wonder why! 'Britain is not paying its way in the world'

    We should invade France and force them to buy more of our stuff ?
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,028
    Plato said:

    New VED bands from 2017 - £140 for 95% of cars. No raises for older cars. Tax going to Roads Fund = hypotheticated!

    MOTs now 4yrs.

    Oh Fuck off George !

    The missus I assume will be happy seeing as she drives a massive old 4 x4 though :P ?

    A swing and a roundabout...
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    IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    edited July 2015
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Indigo said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Life_ina_market_town said:

    Making foreign companies subject to inheritance tax. That again looks legally incoherent and constitutionally dodgy.

    Why if they own British properties? This brings us into line with many other nations.
    Countries I would assume with different legal traditions and constitutional settlements ?
    Our constitutional settlement is that Parliament sets the rules. How does this differ from that?
    If parliament could just do what it wants the Supreme Court wouldn't be required to judicially review laws and procedures...
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 50,024
    Ooh. The Road Fund licence returns!
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Life_ina_market_town said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Why if they own British properties? This brings us into line with many other nations.

    Because the whole basis of company law is that property is owned absolutely by the company, which is a separate legal person from its members or shareholders.
    Companies still have to pay tax.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,302
    Apprenticeship levy, don't like the sound of that.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,221
    MaxPB said:

    Hypothecation of VED!?!

    Big move.

    My old transport tutor at Oxford will be furious!
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    I need to see the details on that one - could be great or awful.
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Apprenticeship levy, don't like the sound of that.

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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,302
    edited July 2015
    Bad move to totally get rid of student grants and replace them with loans..they were unsustainable, but genuinely poor students should get some help.
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    Life_ina_market_townLife_ina_market_town Posts: 2,319
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Companies still have to pay tax.

    Yes, but inheritance tax is a charge on estates. A company, by definition, can never enter into anything equivalent to the affairs of a deceased testator.
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    FlightpathlFlightpathl Posts: 1,243
    TGOHF said:

    Life_ina_market_town said:

    The Conservatives are putting back the first year of a surplus yet again. This repeats what has been done in nearly every one of Osborne's previous budgets. Expect it to continue in this Parliament.

    isn't he just lowering the bar so he can beat it as the next election approaches ?
    I think thats probably right, plus gives him a bit of leeway in the event of the 'regulators' having to kick in. Our big problem seems to me to be that we are not collecting the taxes that you would expect our economy to generate.
    The fact is that many commentators have been saying the previous timetable was still needlessly strict. The important factor is that the programme of spending cuts is continuing. It should be a warning to us all that once you start spending - especially on the scale of Brown - it is incredibly difficult to turn the taps off.
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Fuel Duty remains frozen
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Lovely bit of well deserved Nat bashing.
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    PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    10 councils in Gt Manchester to take over more powers in return for directly elected mayor. Sheffield, Leeds, North Yorks to get similar offers if agreement reached.
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    TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Bad move to totally get rid of student grants and replace them with loans..they were unsustainable, but genuinely poor students should get some help.

    But they don't have to be paid back unless earnings are high - poor students who don't earn big bucks are unaffected.
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    Life_ina_market_townLife_ina_market_town Posts: 2,319
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Bad move to totally get rid of student grants and replace them with loans..they were unsustainable, but genuinely poor students should get some help.

    Given that student loans are in no sense "loans" within the ordinary meaning of the term, this is utterly unobjectionable.
This discussion has been closed.