politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Greece: It’s looking like NO
politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Greece: It’s looking like NO
Greek referendum final polls show 'No' vote ahead by small margin http://t.co/36wH1Sg34G
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Ryan Heath
Ryan Heath –
After past French, Dutch, & Irish NO votes... Whatever the #greekreferendum procedure flaws, #Greece adds to damning run of #EU rejections
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NO achieved the greatest victory in Greek Electoral History.
It's also the greatest defeat for an establishment (Labour should take lessons), and the EU (the OUT campaign also should take lessons).
Tsipras enters the history books as a hero for the Left and to Euroskeptics in all of Europe.0 -
If it's a NO tonight, will the EU demand that they run the referendum again, in order that the correct result is produced?0
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Jeanette Minns 12 MINUTES AGO
Antonis Samaras, leader of opposition party New Democracy, has been called on to resign as early results point to a No victory, according to the BBC.
Ryan Heath
Ryan Heath – Verified account @PoliticoRyan
OFFICIAL on Greek TV - NO cash can be taken from bank deposit boxes in #Greece. Acct holders not allowed to access except under supervision
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The Euro nations should turn around now and say to Greece "ok we tried to help, if you do not want our offer them good luck on your own" and walk away. Grexit should happen.
If this farce continues of negotiations and can kicking then I'll lose what little respect I had left for Europe.0 -
At least it will be easier for Greek unity than if it had been 51:49.
Although that is likely to be cold comfort in the coming days....
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Thread header.. Reuters - No vote ahead by small margin?
No 61,06 %
Yes. 38,94 %
A tiny tiny tiny margin indeed......
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A 61% NO with every TV, radio, newspaper and EU governments in favour of YES with the worst threats you can imagine, you can't get a greater defeat for the YES camp, the EU gave it everything and lost badly, very badly.Sandpit said:If it's a NO tonight, will the EU demand that they run the referendum again, in order that the correct result is produced?
It's the GREATEST DEFEAT for the EU in history.0 -
Dead heat in all but nameMoses_ said:Thread header.. Reuters - No vote ahead by small margin?
No 61,06 %
Yes. 38,94 %
A tiny tiny tiny margin indeed......0 -
40% of voters seem not to have bothered to exercise their right.0
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Maybe some couldn't work out if Yes or No was the best answerchestnut said:40% of voters seem not to have bothered to exercise their right.
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(Checks to see if TSE is about)
Everything Wrong With 300 In 10 Minutes Or Less
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GVQY6Si8Kq8</0 -
That's true, but you have to give the man credit, under the worst possible conditions imaginable, with the whole of Europe, the entire establishment, the entire media, with the banks closed and the biggest scare campaign in european electoral history and he won by a 61-39 margin, which is the biggest victory in greek electoral history.kle4 said:
That will depend if this electoral success pays dividends or not.Speedy said:
Tsipras enters the history books as a hero for the Left and to Euroskeptics in all of Europe.0 -
Jeanette Minns 5 MINUTES AGO
The result in favor of “no” will exceed 61 percent,” an official from Singular Logic, which processes the results for the Interior Ministry said.
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The Euro leaders have brought this on themselves. Their complete arrogance deserved this response.They should learn their lesson, make concessions and find a road of hope back for Greece.0
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Its a no from Greece0
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Labour and the OUT campaign should instantly send teams to Greece to learn as much as possible on how to win an electoral campaign by a landslide under the worst possible conditions.Moses_ said:Jeanette Minns 5 MINUTES AGO
The result in favor of “no” will exceed 61 percent,” an official from Singular Logic, which processes the results for the Interior Ministry said.0 -
Or that both ended up with the same answer.JohnLilburne said:Maybe some couldn't work out if Yes or No was the best answer
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Another triumph for the pollsters.
The virtual tie predicted makes GE2015 polls look accurate.0 -
"Remember us." As simple an order as a king can give. "Remember why we died." For he did not wish tribute, nor song, nor monuments nor poems of war and valor. His wish was simple. "Remember us," he said to me. That was his hope, should any free soul come across that place, in all the countless centuries yet to be. May all our voices whisper to you from the ageless stones, "Go tell the Spartans, passerby, that here by Spartan law, we lie."
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We shall see if it is a Pyrric victory or not.Speedy said:
That's true, but you have to give the man credit, under the worst possible conditions imaginable, with the whole of Europe, the entire establishment, the entire media, with the banks closed and the biggest scare campaign in european electoral history and he won by a 61-39 margin, which is the biggest victory in greek electoral history.kle4 said:
That will depend if this electoral success pays dividends or not.Speedy said:
Tsipras enters the history books as a hero for the Left and to Euroskeptics in all of Europe.
Pyrrus was of course a Greek who only demonstrated to the Italians how weak he really was, and it forshadowed the long eclipse of Greece, at least until the rise of Byzantium.
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Just make sure they don't have Ed Miliicropolis leading them.Speedy said:
Labour and the OUT campaign should instantly send teams to Greece to learn as much as possible on how to win an electoral campaign by a landslide under the worst possible conditions.Moses_ said:Jeanette Minns 5 MINUTES AGO
The result in favor of “no” will exceed 61 percent,” an official from Singular Logic, which processes the results for the Interior Ministry said.
Mind you he did have his very own "Geek marble."
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Euro is Crap is PM?bigjohnowls said:Another triumph for the pollsters.
The virtual tie predicted makes GE2015 polls look accurate.
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I don't know where we go from here. Surely Grexit by Tuesday, the ECB can't keep the taps on now that there is no chance of a deal and the EU surely can't u-turn on all of the rhetoric over the last few days without a massive uprising in Spain and Portugal for anti-austerity parties.
It has to be Grexit, I don't see any road where Greece stays in the Euro now, the EU will turn into a joke if they allow things to carry on as before with more unproductive talks.0 -
You have to hand it to Tsipras, he has immense charisma even if his policies are barking, had Labour had Tsipras rather than Ed Miliband leading them they would have done a lot better, especially in ScotlandSpeedy said:
That's true, but you have to give the man credit, under the worst possible conditions imaginable, with the whole of Europe, the entire establishment, the entire media, with the banks closed and the biggest scare campaign in european electoral history and he won by a 61-39 margin, which is the biggest victory in greek electoral history.kle4 said:
That will depend if this electoral success pays dividends or not.Speedy said:
Tsipras enters the history books as a hero for the Left and to Euroskeptics in all of Europe.0 -
So, to summarise:Philip_Thompson said:The Euro nations should turn around now and say to Greece "ok we tried to help, if you do not want our offer them good luck on your own" and walk away. Grexit should happen.
If this farce continues of negotiations and can kicking then I'll lose what little respect I had left for Europe.
* If Greece is kicked out of the Euro then that is a Bad Thing and the EU is BAD!
* If Greece is not kicked out of the Euro then that is a Bad Thing and the EU is BAD!
...and there y'go
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The downfall video on this one is going to be somewhat amusing....0
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Greece’s labour minister Panos Skourletis has reacted to the results, and hailed the outcome as a very good thing for democracy.
“The goverment can go now with a very strong card to continue negotiations [with creditors],” he told reporters outside the the prime minister’s office.
Greece’s veteran commentator Pavlos Tzimas has just told SKAI TV that it is vital that an agreement is reached by June 20, when Greece must meet a €3bn debt repayment to the European Central Bank.
“But it is practically impossible to have an agreement in less than two weeks as [whatever is agreed] would need to be ratified by parliaments.”
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Yes, the 60% turnout seems rather low for such an important referendum.chestnut said:40% of voters seem not to have bothered to exercise their right.
Also 6% of ballots returned are being rejected, which could be for a number of reasons but sounds a little high for a simple YES/NO question.0 -
SKAI TV was the one that cancelled the broadcast of the Copa America final in favour of a 24 hour YES newsbroadcast yesterday, so their view goes straight to the bin.SimonStClare said:Greece’s labour minister Panos Skourletis has reacted to the results, and hailed the outcome as a very good thing for democracy.
“The goverment can go now with a very strong card to continue negotiations [with creditors],” he told reporters outside the the prime minister’s office.
Greece’s veteran commentator Pavlos Tzimas has just told SKAI TV that it is vital that an agreement is reached by June 20, when Greece must meet a €3bn debt repayment to the European Central Bank.
“But it is practically impossible to have an agreement in less than two weeks as [whatever is agreed] would need to be ratified by parliaments.”0 -
They sure do have that card to continue negotiations. Of course, 100% for No would not have meant the creditors would be obliged to take part in those negotiations or offer another deal however, just that the Greek government has backing to try to negotiate more. We shall see what they come up with. My general assumption is that people will go for getting something back over nothing in the end.SimonStClare said:Greece’s labour minister Panos Skourletis has reacted to the results, and hailed the outcome as a very good thing for democracy.
“The goverment can go now with a very strong card to continue negotiations [with creditors],”0 -
FPT -
It can happen in severely repressive dictatorships such as Stalin's Soviet Union. That's not to say you won't get some bizarre or perverse results but then sometimes the market delivers that. Where people have choice, ultimately, economics will always prove stronger.matt said:In genuinely serious battles between politics and economics, I'd be interested in hearing examples of politics winning the war not just the battle.
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That should be the communists with their invalid votes, the Greek Communist Party was against NO but couldn't realistically promote YES without risking their existence.Sandpit said:
Yes, the 60% turnout seems rather low for such an important referendum.chestnut said:40% of voters seem not to have bothered to exercise their right.
Also 6% of ballots returned are being rejected, which could be for a number of reasons but sounds a little high for a simple YES/NO question.0 -
Because if there's one way of persuading the younger generation to vote for you, it's replacing a big football match on TV with a party political broadcast... Muppets.Speedy said:
SKAI TV was the one that cancelled the broadcast of the Copa America final in favour of a 24 hour YES newsbroadcast yesterday, so their view goes straight to the bin.SimonStClare said:Greece’s labour minister Panos Skourletis has reacted to the results, and hailed the outcome as a very good thing for democracy.
“The goverment can go now with a very strong card to continue negotiations [with creditors],” he told reporters outside the the prime minister’s office.
Greece’s veteran commentator Pavlos Tzimas has just told SKAI TV that it is vital that an agreement is reached by June 20, when Greece must meet a €3bn debt repayment to the European Central Bank.
“But it is practically impossible to have an agreement in less than two weeks as [whatever is agreed] would need to be ratified by parliaments.”0 -
Be interesting if that's still the view in a week's time - or a month's.Speedy said:NO achieved the greatest victory in Greek Electoral History.
It's also the greatest defeat for an establishment (Labour should take lessons), and the EU (the OUT campaign also should take lessons).
Tsipras enters the history books as a hero for the Left and to Euroskeptics in all of Europe.0 -
Perhaps the other 40% are too busy looking for window ledges...Sandpit said:
Yes, the 60% turnout seems rather low for such an important referendum.chestnut said:40% of voters seem not to have bothered to exercise their right.
Also 6% of ballots returned are being rejected, which could be for a number of reasons but sounds a little high for a simple YES/NO question.
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Actually, the greatest victory in Greek electoral history was won by Prince Alfred of the United Kingdom.Speedy said:NO achieved the greatest victory in Greek Electoral History.
...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_head_of_state_referendum,_18620 -
I now know how Tories felt on election night in May.david_herdson said:
Be interesting if that's still the view in a week's time - or a month's.Speedy said:NO achieved the greatest victory in Greek Electoral History.
It's also the greatest defeat for an establishment (Labour should take lessons), and the EU (the OUT campaign also should take lessons).
Tsipras enters the history books as a hero for the Left and to Euroskeptics in all of Europe.
You now know how non-Tories felt on election night in May.0 -
Jun 20 was 2 weeks agoSimonStClare said:Greece’s labour minister Panos Skourletis has reacted to the results, and hailed the outcome as a very good thing for democracy.
“The goverment can go now with a very strong card to continue negotiations [with creditors],” he told reporters outside the the prime minister’s office.
Greece’s veteran commentator Pavlos Tzimas has just told SKAI TV that it is vital that an agreement is reached by June 20, when Greece must meet a €3bn debt repayment to the European Central Bank.
“But it is practically impossible to have an agreement in less than two weeks as [whatever is agreed] would need to be ratified by parliaments.”0 -
It wasn't quite a free vote in 1862 or with universal suffrage, so it doesn't actually count as a proper referendum just like a N.Korean election.david_herdson said:
Actually, the greatest victory in Greek electoral history was won by Prince Alfred of the United Kingdom.Speedy said:NO achieved the greatest victory in Greek Electoral History.
...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_head_of_state_referendum,_18620 -
We need to rescind free movement between ourselves and Greece Monday morning.0
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bigjohnowls said:
Jun 20 was 2 weeks agoSimonStClare said:Greece’s labour minister Panos Skourletis has reacted to the results, and hailed the outcome as a very good thing for democracy.
Indeed Mr BJO - a slight bo bo by the Guardian me thinks - sure they meant July.0 -
If the Greek people voted to make an agreement by then, then it would undemocratic bullying to demand they abide by the passage of time. Or he meant to say July 20th I suppose.bigjohnowls said:
Jun 20 was 2 weeks agoSimonStClare said:Greece’s labour minister Panos Skourletis has reacted to the results, and hailed the outcome as a very good thing for democracy.
“The goverment can go now with a very strong card to continue negotiations [with creditors],” he told reporters outside the the prime minister’s office.
Greece’s veteran commentator Pavlos Tzimas has just told SKAI TV that it is vital that an agreement is reached by June 20, when Greece must meet a €3bn debt repayment to the European Central Bank.
“But it is practically impossible to have an agreement in less than two weeks as [whatever is agreed] would need to be ratified by parliaments.”
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You only have to look at the comments from German Banks and Trade Associations to see where this is going.
Bye Bye Greece.
No voters will be rioting by Tuesday when the banks remain closed.0 -
Kathimerini English
Kathimerini English – @ekathimerini
Trillion-dollar stock managers see chaos on Greek ‘no’ vote http://dlvr.it/BQsrjj0 -
Why?FalseFlag said:We need to rescind free movement between ourselves and Greece Monday morning.
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I'll be off for a while, I'm out to celebrate the biggest defeat of the EU in it's history.
Hopefully that will open the floodgates and a prelude for the EU referendum.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WkxW0Dbf5qA0 -
Yes, the repayment is due on 20th July according to the DT live blogSimonStClare said:bigjohnowls said:
Jun 20 was 2 weeks agoSimonStClare said:Greece’s labour minister Panos Skourletis has reacted to the results, and hailed the outcome as a very good thing for democracy.
Indeed Mr BJO - a slight bo bo by the Guardian me thinks - sure they meant July.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11718775/Greek-referendum-day-results-live-no-vote-leads-by-60-per-cent.html0 -
From the Guardian, here's Caroline Lucas's thoughts:
"The Greek people have made a decision which must now be respected. This referendum has seen EU states do their very best to undermine the democratic will of the Greek people but it’s time to draw a line under the past and move onwards.
“History shows us that countries can escape crippling debt in a just way. In 1953, at London Conference, Greece was among the European nations signing a deal which allowed for the cancellation of German debt, to enable the country to grow again after the destruction of the Second World War. Europe needs to come together to offer the Greeks a deal which allows their country to be rebuilt."
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Who will then be told to think again.GIN1138 said:
We'll be able to add the UK to that list of EU rejections in 2017!!!!!!!!!Moses_ said:Ryan Heath
Ryan Heath –
After past French, Dutch, & Irish NO votes... Whatever the #greekreferendum procedure flaws, #Greece adds to damning run of #EU rejections0 -
I still don't get the undemocratic bit - how does a democratic vote in Greece mean Europe, as a whole, must 'offer the Greeks a deal'. Maybe it would be a good idea to do that, maybe not, but the rest of Europe didn't vote to make an offer to Greece, Greece just voted to demand a better offer be made.tlg86 said:From the Guardian, here's Caroline Lucas's thoughts:
"The Greek people have made a decision which must now be respected. This referendum has seen EU states do their very best to undermine the democratic will of the Greek people but it’s time to draw a line under the past and move onwards.
“History shows us that countries can escape crippling debt in a just way. In 1953, at London Conference, Greece was among the European nations signing a deal which allowed for the cancellation of German debt, to enable the country to grow again after the destruction of the Second World War. Europe needs to come together to offer the Greeks a deal which allows their country to be rebuilt."0 -
So what will happen when the markets open in the morning?0
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Well to use a Greek analogy: the voters (only 60% turnout? wow!) have gone for Pandora's box. The one with all the chaos and ills in it when opened but with hope at the bottom.
Question is how long does the hope last? If the Germans/Finns/Irish/Spanish/Dutch et al prevail over some Gallic hand wringing and stick to their line and get the ECB to turn the life support off that hope could turn 180 degrees in double quick time, and a lot of very innocent folk will lose virtually everything. "Tragedy" is over used but not here I fear.
Essentially Tsipras and Varoufakis are punting everybody else's farm that the market pain will not be worth the tiny Greek candle and everyone else will cave. We shall see.
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So much for the supposed shy EU vote. Turns out the shy vote was eurosceptics.0
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If my family votes not to make mortgage payments, must the bank respect that?kle4 said:
I still don't get the undemocratic bit - how does a democratic vote in Greece mean Europe, as a whole, must 'offer the Greeks a deal'. Maybe it would be a good idea to do that, maybe not, but the rest of Europe didn't vote to make an offer to Greece, Greece just voted to demand a better offer be made.tlg86 said:From the Guardian, here's Caroline Lucas's thoughts:
"The Greek people have made a decision which must now be respected. This referendum has seen EU states do their very best to undermine the democratic will of the Greek people but it’s time to draw a line under the past and move onwards.
“History shows us that countries can escape crippling debt in a just way. In 1953, at London Conference, Greece was among the European nations signing a deal which allowed for the cancellation of German debt, to enable the country to grow again after the destruction of the Second World War. Europe needs to come together to offer the Greeks a deal which allows their country to be rebuilt."
[EDIT: I'm agreeing with you ] 0 -
I take an educated guess that markets will PANIC!!tlg86 said:So what will happen when the markets open in the morning?
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Ryan Heath
29m29 minutes ago
Ryan Heath @PoliticoRyan
ARDTV reporting that no German politicians are willing to face a camera at the moment #oops #Greece #greekreferendum0 -
Because that will help push Greece in Russia's direction. Duh.bigjohnowls said:
Why?FalseFlag said:We need to rescind free movement between ourselves and Greece Monday morning.
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Shipping and Tourism to boom on Greek default.0
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But economics trumped political ideology in the USSR. Lenin's initial reforms had to be quickly reversed with the New Economic Policy. A similar thing happened with the reopening of the private markets in North Korea following the 90s famine.david_herdson said:FPT -
It can happen in severely repressive dictatorships such as Stalin's Soviet Union. That's not to say you won't get some bizarre or perverse results but then sometimes the market delivers that. Where people have choice, ultimately, economics will always prove stronger.matt said:In genuinely serious battles between politics and economics, I'd be interested in hearing examples of politics winning the war not just the battle.
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LOLMoses_ said:Ryan Heath
29m29 minutes ago
Ryan Heath @PoliticoRyan
ARDTV reporting that no German politicians are willing to face a camera at the moment #oops #Greece #greekreferendum0 -
Shipping will be totally unaffected.bigjohnowls said:Shipping and Tourism to boom on Greek default.
Not clear to me why civil unrest would boost tourism, but maybe you're a different kind of tourist to me,0 -
Beggars can't be choosers.0
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It really does feel like the EU is in some serious trouble. The number of people who passionately believe in the project and, more than that, like the way things are and will continue to be structured, was never massive, but there were a lot of people who either didn't really mind it, or didn't like parts of it but were not motivated to actively oppose it. It is starting to feel as though the general 'don't like it' crowd are transitioning to 'will, in some circumstances, oppose it', even if that is not outright euroscepticism.0
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Given what BJO has just gone thru....rcs1000 said:
Shipping will be totally unaffected.bigjohnowls said:Shipping and Tourism to boom on Greek default.
Not clear to me why civil unrest would boost tourism, but maybe you're a different kind of tourist to me,0 -
Quite. If I vote myself an Aston Martin and a night of bliss with a supermodel of my choice it's still not going to happen.kle4 said:
I still don't get the undemocratic bit - how does a democratic vote in Greece mean Europe, as a whole, must 'offer the Greeks a deal'. Maybe it would be a good idea to do that, maybe not, but the rest of Europe didn't vote to make an offer to Greece, Greece just voted to demand a better offer be made.tlg86 said:From the Guardian, here's Caroline Lucas's thoughts:
"The Greek people have made a decision which must now be respected. This referendum has seen EU states do their very best to undermine the democratic will of the Greek people but it’s time to draw a line under the past and move onwards.
“History shows us that countries can escape crippling debt in a just way. In 1953, at London Conference, Greece was among the European nations signing a deal which allowed for the cancellation of German debt, to enable the country to grow again after the destruction of the Second World War. Europe needs to come together to offer the Greeks a deal which allows their country to be rebuilt."
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The only thing booming in Greece, will be Molotov Cocktails.bigjohnowls said:Shipping and Tourism to boom on Greek default.
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Predominantly due to the high level of charging, the poor tax benefits and the lack of public understanding of just how little a Money Purchase pension will give them in retirement.matt said:
In what sense is are UK private pensions worthless, you ignorant buffoon?Dair said:I completely agree that there is no security in expectations of future state pensions but your previous point was about private pensions and where they are invested.
In all likelihood the private pensions will go bust before the governments do, at least as far as the Northern European economies are concerned and the UK has by far the most worthless private pension provision so it will be missed less by the average Brit than would be the case for a Germany or Dutch or Danish national.
In any case, neither point offers anything other than penury to the vast bulk of people under 40 today.
Add to that the complete lack of public engagement and education of what the last 20 years of pension changes actually mean for most people and you have a blindfolded public walking into oblivion.
Of course as Government would need to take responsibility for the engagement and education which would have to include a pretty clear message of "The Tories and Labour have utterly screwed you all and for a lot of you there is nothing you can do even if you get the message now", there is no appetite in Government to take such an initiative.0 -
Well maybe you are a better economist than the one on Bloomberg who said Greek fundamentals were relatively strong and he expected Greek Shipping and Tourism to boom on Greek default.rcs1000 said:
Shipping will be totally unaffected.bigjohnowls said:Shipping and Tourism to boom on Greek default.
Not clear to me why civil unrest would boost tourism, but maybe you're a different kind of tourist to me,
I am a recently converted stay at home tourist BTW0 -
Angela Merkel, Francois Hollande, Jean Claude Junker, Catherine Ashton, Christine Lagarde,
your boys took one hell of a beating.0 -
The EU are a joke and they will cave in.MaxPB said:I don't know where we go from here. Surely Grexit by Tuesday, the ECB can't keep the taps on now that there is no chance of a deal and the EU surely can't u-turn on all of the rhetoric over the last few days without a massive uprising in Spain and Portugal for anti-austerity parties.
It has to be Grexit, I don't see any road where Greece stays in the Euro now, the EU will turn into a joke if they allow things to carry on as before with more unproductive talks.0 -
Yes I am.bigjohnowls said:
Well maybe you are a better economist than the one on Bloomberg who said Greek fundamentals were relatively strong and he expected Greek Shipping and Tourism to boom on Greek default.rcs1000 said:
Shipping will be totally unaffected.bigjohnowls said:Shipping and Tourism to boom on Greek default.
Not clear to me why civil unrest would boost tourism, but maybe you're a different kind of tourist to me,
I am a recently converted stay at home tourist BTW0 -
I looked forward to the Empress of Europe explaining what she now intends to do. Backpedaling, I imagine.0
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Greeks official Communists are at least consistent. They oppose everything.Speedy said:
That should be the communists with their invalid votes, the Greek Communist Party was against NO but couldn't realistically promote YES without risking their existence.Sandpit said:
Yes, the 60% turnout seems rather low for such an important referendum.chestnut said:40% of voters seem not to have bothered to exercise their right.
Also 6% of ballots returned are being rejected, which could be for a number of reasons but sounds a little high for a simple YES/NO question.0 -
As I wrote the other day it has a whiff of Austria Hungary fin de siècle about it. We joined in 73 because frankly they'd done better tha us post 1945 and it looked like the future for our business. Behold the chaos on our TV screens right now where Peston is openly talking of medicine and food shortages within days in a European country all entirely caused by European unification policy.kle4 said:It really does feel like the EU is in some serious trouble. The number of people who passionately believe in the project and, more than that, like the way things are and will continue to be structured, was never massive, but there were a lot of people who either didn't really mind it, or didn't like parts of it but were not motivated to actively oppose it. It is starting to feel as though the general 'don't like it' crowd are transitioning to 'will, in some circumstances, oppose it', even if that is not outright euroscepticism.
Surely we stare from our side of the Channel at the least thanking to God we are at least semi detached from this fiasco by not having the single currency?0 -
That's not an applicable analogy. A better one is that if you take out a loan, you can of course freely decide not to pay it back. It is then up to the creditor to decide the best course of action under the law to pursue what is owed.welshowl said:
Quite. If I vote myself an Aston Martin and a night of bliss with a supermodel of my choice it's still not going to happen.kle4 said:
I still don't get the undemocratic bit - how does a democratic vote in Greece mean Europe, as a whole, must 'offer the Greeks a deal'. Maybe it would be a good idea to do that, maybe not, but the rest of Europe didn't vote to make an offer to Greece, Greece just voted to demand a better offer be made.tlg86 said:From the Guardian, here's Caroline Lucas's thoughts:
"The Greek people have made a decision which must now be respected. This referendum has seen EU states do their very best to undermine the democratic will of the Greek people but it’s time to draw a line under the past and move onwards.
“History shows us that countries can escape crippling debt in a just way. In 1953, at London Conference, Greece was among the European nations signing a deal which allowed for the cancellation of German debt, to enable the country to grow again after the destruction of the Second World War. Europe needs to come together to offer the Greeks a deal which allows their country to be rebuilt."0 -
I am not sure how any referendum can be properly held with so little time for proper examination of the issues. The result is more about emotion and gut reaction rather than detailed consideration of the question. Viewed in that light, this result was pretty much inevitable.0
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You have been right on this so far Nigel.nigel4england said:
The EU are a joke and they will cave in.MaxPB said:I don't know where we go from here. Surely Grexit by Tuesday, the ECB can't keep the taps on now that there is no chance of a deal and the EU surely can't u-turn on all of the rhetoric over the last few days without a massive uprising in Spain and Portugal for anti-austerity parties.
It has to be Grexit, I don't see any road where Greece stays in the Euro now, the EU will turn into a joke if they allow things to carry on as before with more unproductive talks.
I reckon a haircut will be seen as preferable to a complete default
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Spain getting nervous
According to El Pais, Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy has announced an emergency meeting with the Commission for Economic Affairs to discuss the results of the Greek referendum.0 -
I think so too. Demonstrating to the British public how you should negotiate with the EU - by voting 'No' as a first salvo.kle4 said:I looked forward to the Empress of Europe explaining what she now intends to do. Backpedaling, I imagine.
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Does caving involve a new deal.watford30 said:
She's doomed at home, if she caves in to Greece. Rock and a hard place.kle4 said:I looked forward to the Empress of Europe explaining what she now intends to do. Backpedaling, I imagine.
Is the alternative not considerably more costly ie 100% default.
Haircut methinks0 -
Euro trading down just less than 1%. Would expect European markets to be down mid single digits tomorrow, and US to be down 2-3%.0
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Ooo.... Things starting to hot up very quickly
Jeanette Minns 19 MINUTES AGO
Reuters reports that Alexis Tsipras has spoken with several European leaders, starting with the French president Francois Hollande. There are also suggestions that ECB president Mario Draghi has also been contacted.
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Mutti will not cave in. Some food aid yes, but cannot see her handing over money without major concessions.watford30 said:
She's doomed at home, if she caves in to Greece. Rock and a hard place.kle4 said:I looked forward to the Empress of Europe explaining what she now intends to do. Backpedaling, I imagine.
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Yes, you are right of course. I was being a tad frivolous. The point I was making is it seems the Greeks ( well 60% of those voting) are not living in my reality paradigm. Good luck to them if they are right they'll have played a blinder and I'll doff my hat. However, they've just bet the lot and they cannot control the outcome.Luckyguy1983 said:
That's not an applicable analogy. A better one is that if you take out a loan, you can of course freely decide not to pay it back. It is then up to the creditor to decide the best course of action under the law to pursue what is owed.welshowl said:
Quite. If I vote myself an Aston Martin and a night of bliss with a supermodel of my choice it's still not going to happen.kle4 said:
I still don't get the undemocratic bit - how does a democratic vote in Greece mean Europe, as a whole, must 'offer the Greeks a deal'. Maybe it would be a good idea to do that, maybe not, but the rest of Europe didn't vote to make an offer to Greece, Greece just voted to demand a better offer be made.tlg86 said:From the Guardian, here's Caroline Lucas's thoughts:
"The Greek people have made a decision which must now be respected. This referendum has seen EU states do their very best to undermine the democratic will of the Greek people but it’s time to draw a line under the past and move onwards.
“History shows us that countries can escape crippling debt in a just way. In 1953, at London Conference, Greece was among the European nations signing a deal which allowed for the cancellation of German debt, to enable the country to grow again after the destruction of the Second World War. Europe needs to come together to offer the Greeks a deal which allows their country to be rebuilt."0 -
It's in our interest not to be flooded by Greeks.bigjohnowls said:
Why?FalseFlag said:We need to rescind free movement between ourselves and Greece Monday morning.
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Some of my colleagues have been hauled into the office to have strategies ready for tomorrow morning. (How's that for preparation...)
I'm a fairly decent analyst and I seriously don't see where this is going to go. If it is Grexit then it has to happen in the next few days, Greece cant afford for the banks to be closed for another two weeks and have a return to wartime style rationing and state food handouts.
Also, what the hell does the ECB do tomorrow? How can they extend ELA funds to a country that has just voted no to a fairly reasonable bailout deal, it must break their charter to give money to insolvent banks who have no way of paying it back and who have a very uncertain future wrt the EMU.
Tsipras needs to get in touch with De La Rue tonight and have Drachma ready to go into cash machines by the end of the week and have more shipped until they can get a local printing press sorted out.
I also don't know how the EU reacts to the very likely default that is now coming. Greece owes the EFSF around €150bn in Euro denominated bonds. There is no way that Greece is ever going to be able to pay that back and I highly doubt the EU will accept a retroactive change to the terms of those bonds to renominate them into Drachma.
Finally, who now lends to Greece? They have to raise FX in London and NY to pay for basic essentials like oil and grain, but I don't see anyone but the hedge funds getting involved which means 15%+ interest rates for short term debt at least until Greece can prove its creditworthiness. Having pissed the IMF off royally, how will Tsipras approach them now and try and get a reasonable debt restructuring through, especially with the LatAm defaults all ready to blow up soon.
If there was a worse way for Greece to leave the Euro, I can't think of one. This has got to be the single worst strategic move I have ever seen.0 -
To encourage the others...bigjohnowls said:
Does caving involve a new deal.watford30 said:
She's doomed at home, if she caves in to Greece. Rock and a hard place.kle4 said:I looked forward to the Empress of Europe explaining what she now intends to do. Backpedaling, I imagine.
Is the alternative not considerably more costly ie 100% default.
Haircut methinks0 -
Time is not on Tsipiras side.Moses_ said:Ooo.... Things starting to hot up very quickly
Jeanette Minns 19 MINUTES AGO
Reuters reports that Alexis Tsipras has spoken with several European leaders, starting with the French president Francois Hollande. There are also suggestions that ECB president Mario Draghi has also been contacted.
If the Eurozone and the ECB do nothing, it is Greece which cannot import food and fuel.0 -
I have no idea how this is going to end up but knowing that right now, these "characters" are sitting in their offices and suffering, is very, very gratifying...Eh_ehm_a_eh said:Angela Merkel, Francois Hollande, Jean Claude Junker, Catherine Ashton, Christine Lagarde,
your boys took one hell of a beating.
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