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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Greece: It’s looking like NO

Greek referendum final polls show 'No' vote ahead by small margin http://t.co/36wH1Sg34G
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Ryan Heath –
After past French, Dutch, & Irish NO votes... Whatever the #greekreferendum procedure flaws, #Greece adds to damning run of #EU rejections
It's also the greatest defeat for an establishment (Labour should take lessons), and the EU (the OUT campaign also should take lessons).
Tsipras enters the history books as a hero for the Left and to Euroskeptics in all of Europe.
Antonis Samaras, leader of opposition party New Democracy, has been called on to resign as early results point to a No victory, according to the BBC.
Ryan Heath
Ryan Heath – Verified account @PoliticoRyan
OFFICIAL on Greek TV - NO cash can be taken from bank deposit boxes in #Greece. Acct holders not allowed to access except under supervision
If this farce continues of negotiations and can kicking then I'll lose what little respect I had left for Europe.
Although that is likely to be cold comfort in the coming days....
No 61,06 %
Yes. 38,94 %
A tiny tiny tiny margin indeed......
It's the GREATEST DEFEAT for the EU in history.
Everything Wrong With 300 In 10 Minutes Or Less
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GVQY6Si8Kq8</
The result in favor of “no” will exceed 61 percent,” an official from Singular Logic, which processes the results for the Interior Ministry said.
The virtual tie predicted makes GE2015 polls look accurate.
Pyrrus was of course a Greek who only demonstrated to the Italians how weak he really was, and it forshadowed the long eclipse of Greece, at least until the rise of Byzantium.
Mind you he did have his very own "Geek marble."
It has to be Grexit, I don't see any road where Greece stays in the Euro now, the EU will turn into a joke if they allow things to carry on as before with more unproductive talks.
* If Greece is kicked out of the Euro then that is a Bad Thing and the EU is BAD!
* If Greece is not kicked out of the Euro then that is a Bad Thing and the EU is BAD!
...and there y'go
“The goverment can go now with a very strong card to continue negotiations [with creditors],” he told reporters outside the the prime minister’s office.
Greece’s veteran commentator Pavlos Tzimas has just told SKAI TV that it is vital that an agreement is reached by June 20, when Greece must meet a €3bn debt repayment to the European Central Bank.
“But it is practically impossible to have an agreement in less than two weeks as [whatever is agreed] would need to be ratified by parliaments.”
Also 6% of ballots returned are being rejected, which could be for a number of reasons but sounds a little high for a simple YES/NO question.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_head_of_state_referendum,_1862
You now know how non-Tories felt on election night in May.
Indeed Mr BJO - a slight bo bo by the Guardian me thinks - sure they meant July.
Bye Bye Greece.
No voters will be rioting by Tuesday when the banks remain closed.
Kathimerini English – @ekathimerini
Trillion-dollar stock managers see chaos on Greek ‘no’ vote http://dlvr.it/BQsrjj
Hopefully that will open the floodgates and a prelude for the EU referendum.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WkxW0Dbf5qA
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11718775/Greek-referendum-day-results-live-no-vote-leads-by-60-per-cent.html
"The Greek people have made a decision which must now be respected. This referendum has seen EU states do their very best to undermine the democratic will of the Greek people but it’s time to draw a line under the past and move onwards.
“History shows us that countries can escape crippling debt in a just way. In 1953, at London Conference, Greece was among the European nations signing a deal which allowed for the cancellation of German debt, to enable the country to grow again after the destruction of the Second World War. Europe needs to come together to offer the Greeks a deal which allows their country to be rebuilt."
And buys De La Rue.
Question is how long does the hope last? If the Germans/Finns/Irish/Spanish/Dutch et al prevail over some Gallic hand wringing and stick to their line and get the ECB to turn the life support off that hope could turn 180 degrees in double quick time, and a lot of very innocent folk will lose virtually everything. "Tragedy" is over used but not here I fear.
Essentially Tsipras and Varoufakis are punting everybody else's farm that the market pain will not be worth the tiny Greek candle and everyone else will cave. We shall see.
It will shake all European markets for a while, including ours, then turn into a buying opportunity.
[EDIT: I'm agreeing with you
29m29 minutes ago
Ryan Heath @PoliticoRyan
ARDTV reporting that no German politicians are willing to face a camera at the moment #oops #Greece #greekreferendum
Not clear to me why civil unrest would boost tourism, but maybe you're a different kind of tourist to me,
Add to that the complete lack of public engagement and education of what the last 20 years of pension changes actually mean for most people and you have a blindfolded public walking into oblivion.
Of course as Government would need to take responsibility for the engagement and education which would have to include a pretty clear message of "The Tories and Labour have utterly screwed you all and for a lot of you there is nothing you can do even if you get the message now", there is no appetite in Government to take such an initiative.
I am a recently converted stay at home tourist BTW
your boys took one hell of a beating.
Surely we stare from our side of the Channel at the least thanking to God we are at least semi detached from this fiasco by not having the single currency?
I reckon a haircut will be seen as preferable to a complete default
According to El Pais, Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy has announced an emergency meeting with the Commission for Economic Affairs to discuss the results of the Greek referendum.
Is the alternative not considerably more costly ie 100% default.
Haircut methinks
Or not.
Jeanette Minns 19 MINUTES AGO
Reuters reports that Alexis Tsipras has spoken with several European leaders, starting with the French president Francois Hollande. There are also suggestions that ECB president Mario Draghi has also been contacted.
I'm a fairly decent analyst and I seriously don't see where this is going to go. If it is Grexit then it has to happen in the next few days, Greece cant afford for the banks to be closed for another two weeks and have a return to wartime style rationing and state food handouts.
Also, what the hell does the ECB do tomorrow? How can they extend ELA funds to a country that has just voted no to a fairly reasonable bailout deal, it must break their charter to give money to insolvent banks who have no way of paying it back and who have a very uncertain future wrt the EMU.
Tsipras needs to get in touch with De La Rue tonight and have Drachma ready to go into cash machines by the end of the week and have more shipped until they can get a local printing press sorted out.
I also don't know how the EU reacts to the very likely default that is now coming. Greece owes the EFSF around €150bn in Euro denominated bonds. There is no way that Greece is ever going to be able to pay that back and I highly doubt the EU will accept a retroactive change to the terms of those bonds to renominate them into Drachma.
Finally, who now lends to Greece? They have to raise FX in London and NY to pay for basic essentials like oil and grain, but I don't see anyone but the hedge funds getting involved which means 15%+ interest rates for short term debt at least until Greece can prove its creditworthiness. Having pissed the IMF off royally, how will Tsipras approach them now and try and get a reasonable debt restructuring through, especially with the LatAm defaults all ready to blow up soon.
If there was a worse way for Greece to leave the Euro, I can't think of one. This has got to be the single worst strategic move I have ever seen.
If the Eurozone and the ECB do nothing, it is Greece which cannot import food and fuel.