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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Greece: It’s looking like NO

SystemSystem Posts: 12,522
edited July 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Greece: It’s looking like NO

Greek referendum final polls show 'No' vote ahead by small margin http://t.co/36wH1Sg34G

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    edited July 2015
    Ryan Heath
    Ryan Heath –

    After past French, Dutch, & Irish NO votes... Whatever the #greekreferendum procedure flaws, #Greece adds to damning run of #EU rejections
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    NO achieved the greatest victory in Greek Electoral History.
    It's also the greatest defeat for an establishment (Labour should take lessons), and the EU (the OUT campaign also should take lessons).

    Tsipras enters the history books as a hero for the Left and to Euroskeptics in all of Europe.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    edited July 2015
    If it's a NO tonight, will the EU demand that they run the referendum again, in order that the correct result is produced?
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Jeanette Minns 12 MINUTES AGO
    Antonis Samaras, leader of opposition party New Democracy, has been called on to resign as early results point to a No victory, according to the BBC.


    Ryan Heath
    Ryan Heath – Verified account ‏@PoliticoRyan

    OFFICIAL on Greek TV - NO cash can be taken from bank deposit boxes in #Greece. Acct holders not allowed to access except under supervision
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    The Euro nations should turn around now and say to Greece "ok we tried to help, if you do not want our offer them good luck on your own" and walk away. Grexit should happen.

    If this farce continues of negotiations and can kicking then I'll lose what little respect I had left for Europe.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 55,105
    At least it will be easier for Greek unity than if it had been 51:49.

    Although that is likely to be cold comfort in the coming days....

  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Thread header.. Reuters - No vote ahead by small margin?


    No 61,06 %
    Yes. 38,94 %


    A tiny tiny tiny margin indeed......
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited July 2015
    Sandpit said:

    If it's a NO tonight, will the EU demand that they run the referendum again, in order that the correct result is produced?

    A 61% NO with every TV, radio, newspaper and EU governments in favour of YES with the worst threats you can imagine, you can't get a greater defeat for the YES camp, the EU gave it everything and lost badly, very badly.

    It's the GREATEST DEFEAT for the EU in history.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,936
    Moses_ said:

    Thread header.. Reuters - No vote ahead by small margin?


    No 61,06 %
    Yes. 38,94 %


    A tiny tiny tiny margin indeed......

    Dead heat in all but name
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,915
    Speedy said:


    Tsipras enters the history books as a hero for the Left and to Euroskeptics in all of Europe.

    That will depend if this electoral success pays dividends or not.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    40% of voters seem not to have bothered to exercise their right.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,762
    chestnut said:

    40% of voters seem not to have bothered to exercise their right.

    Maybe some couldn't work out if Yes or No was the best answer

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 54,574
    (Checks to see if TSE is about)

    Everything Wrong With 300 In 10 Minutes Or Less

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GVQY6Si8Kq8</
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited July 2015
    kle4 said:

    Speedy said:


    Tsipras enters the history books as a hero for the Left and to Euroskeptics in all of Europe.

    That will depend if this electoral success pays dividends or not.
    That's true, but you have to give the man credit, under the worst possible conditions imaginable, with the whole of Europe, the entire establishment, the entire media, with the banks closed and the biggest scare campaign in european electoral history and he won by a 61-39 margin, which is the biggest victory in greek electoral history.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,089
    Sandpit said:

    If it's a NO tonight, will the EU demand that they run the referendum again, in order that the correct result is produced?

    Denmark and Sweden's No votes to the Euro stood and this is more decisive
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Jeanette Minns 5 MINUTES AGO
    The result in favor of “no” will exceed 61 percent,” an official from Singular Logic, which processes the results for the Interior Ministry said.


  • scotslassscotslass Posts: 912
    The Euro leaders have brought this on themselves. Their complete arrogance deserved this response.They should learn their lesson, make concessions and find a road of hope back for Greece.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,936
    Its a no from Greece
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Moses_ said:

    Jeanette Minns 5 MINUTES AGO
    The result in favor of “no” will exceed 61 percent,” an official from Singular Logic, which processes the results for the Interior Ministry said.


    Labour and the OUT campaign should instantly send teams to Greece to learn as much as possible on how to win an electoral campaign by a landslide under the worst possible conditions.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited July 2015
    JohnLilburne said:

    Maybe some couldn't work out if Yes or No was the best answer

    Or that both ended up with the same answer. :smile:
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,936
    Another triumph for the pollsters.

    The virtual tie predicted makes GE2015 polls look accurate.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 54,574
    "Remember us." As simple an order as a king can give. "Remember why we died." For he did not wish tribute, nor song, nor monuments nor poems of war and valor. His wish was simple. "Remember us," he said to me. That was his hope, should any free soul come across that place, in all the countless centuries yet to be. May all our voices whisper to you from the ageless stones, "Go tell the Spartans, passerby, that here by Spartan law, we lie."
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Speedy said:

    kle4 said:

    Speedy said:


    Tsipras enters the history books as a hero for the Left and to Euroskeptics in all of Europe.

    That will depend if this electoral success pays dividends or not.
    That's true, but you have to give the man credit, under the worst possible conditions imaginable, with the whole of Europe, the entire establishment, the entire media, with the banks closed and the biggest scare campaign in european electoral history and he won by a 61-39 margin, which is the biggest victory in greek electoral history.
    We shall see if it is a Pyrric victory or not.

    Pyrrus was of course a Greek who only demonstrated to the Italians how weak he really was, and it forshadowed the long eclipse of Greece, at least until the rise of Byzantium.

  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Speedy said:

    Moses_ said:

    Jeanette Minns 5 MINUTES AGO
    The result in favor of “no” will exceed 61 percent,” an official from Singular Logic, which processes the results for the Interior Ministry said.


    Labour and the OUT campaign should instantly send teams to Greece to learn as much as possible on how to win an electoral campaign by a landslide under the worst possible conditions.
    Just make sure they don't have Ed Miliicropolis leading them.

    Mind you he did have his very own "Geek marble."
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 54,574
    bigjohnowls said:

    Another triumph for the pollsters.

    The virtual tie predicted makes GE2015 polls look accurate.

    Euro is Crap is PM? :lol:
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,166
    I don't know where we go from here. Surely Grexit by Tuesday, the ECB can't keep the taps on now that there is no chance of a deal and the EU surely can't u-turn on all of the rhetoric over the last few days without a massive uprising in Spain and Portugal for anti-austerity parties.

    It has to be Grexit, I don't see any road where Greece stays in the Euro now, the EU will turn into a joke if they allow things to carry on as before with more unproductive talks.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 128,089
    Speedy said:

    kle4 said:

    Speedy said:


    Tsipras enters the history books as a hero for the Left and to Euroskeptics in all of Europe.

    That will depend if this electoral success pays dividends or not.
    That's true, but you have to give the man credit, under the worst possible conditions imaginable, with the whole of Europe, the entire establishment, the entire media, with the banks closed and the biggest scare campaign in european electoral history and he won by a 61-39 margin, which is the biggest victory in greek electoral history.
    You have to hand it to Tsipras, he has immense charisma even if his policies are barking, had Labour had Tsipras rather than Ed Miliband leading them they would have done a lot better, especially in Scotland
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,846
    Philip_Thompson said:

    The Euro nations should turn around now and say to Greece "ok we tried to help, if you do not want our offer them good luck on your own" and walk away. Grexit should happen.

    If this farce continues of negotiations and can kicking then I'll lose what little respect I had left for Europe.

    So, to summarise:
    * If Greece is kicked out of the Euro then that is a Bad Thing and the EU is BAD!
    * If Greece is not kicked out of the Euro then that is a Bad Thing and the EU is BAD!

    ...and there y'go
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    The downfall video on this one is going to be somewhat amusing....
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Greece’s labour minister Panos Skourletis has reacted to the results, and hailed the outcome as a very good thing for democracy.

    “The goverment can go now with a very strong card to continue negotiations [with creditors],” he told reporters outside the the prime minister’s office.

    Greece’s veteran commentator Pavlos Tzimas has just told SKAI TV that it is vital that an agreement is reached by June 20, when Greece must meet a €3bn debt repayment to the European Central Bank.

    “But it is practically impossible to have an agreement in less than two weeks as [whatever is agreed] would need to be ratified by parliaments.”

  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Moses_ said:

    The downfall video on this one is going to be somewhat amusing....

    I can imagine it will start with Hitler on the dinner table confidently predicting victory on the back of some Greek opinion polls.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,926
    Moses_ said:

    Ryan Heath
    Ryan Heath –

    After past French, Dutch, & Irish NO votes... Whatever the #greekreferendum procedure flaws, #Greece adds to damning run of #EU rejections

    We'll be able to add the UK to that list of EU rejections in 2017!!!!!!!!!

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    chestnut said:

    40% of voters seem not to have bothered to exercise their right.

    Yes, the 60% turnout seems rather low for such an important referendum.

    Also 6% of ballots returned are being rejected, which could be for a number of reasons but sounds a little high for a simple YES/NO question.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited July 2015
    SimonStClare said:

    Greece’s labour minister Panos Skourletis has reacted to the results, and hailed the outcome as a very good thing for democracy.

    “The goverment can go now with a very strong card to continue negotiations [with creditors],” he told reporters outside the the prime minister’s office.

    Greece’s veteran commentator Pavlos Tzimas has just told SKAI TV that it is vital that an agreement is reached by June 20, when Greece must meet a €3bn debt repayment to the European Central Bank.

    “But it is practically impossible to have an agreement in less than two weeks as [whatever is agreed] would need to be ratified by parliaments.”

    SKAI TV was the one that cancelled the broadcast of the Copa America final in favour of a 24 hour YES newsbroadcast yesterday, so their view goes straight to the bin.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,915
    edited July 2015
    SimonStClare said:

    Greece’s labour minister Panos Skourletis has reacted to the results, and hailed the outcome as a very good thing for democracy.

    “The goverment can go now with a very strong card to continue negotiations [with creditors],”

    They sure do have that card to continue negotiations. Of course, 100% for No would not have meant the creditors would be obliged to take part in those negotiations or offer another deal however, just that the Greek government has backing to try to negotiate more. We shall see what they come up with. My general assumption is that people will go for getting something back over nothing in the end.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,338
    FPT -
    matt said:

    In genuinely serious battles between politics and economics, I'd be interested in hearing examples of politics winning the war not just the battle.

    It can happen in severely repressive dictatorships such as Stalin's Soviet Union. That's not to say you won't get some bizarre or perverse results but then sometimes the market delivers that. Where people have choice, ultimately, economics will always prove stronger.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Sandpit said:

    chestnut said:

    40% of voters seem not to have bothered to exercise their right.

    Yes, the 60% turnout seems rather low for such an important referendum.

    Also 6% of ballots returned are being rejected, which could be for a number of reasons but sounds a little high for a simple YES/NO question.
    That should be the communists with their invalid votes, the Greek Communist Party was against NO but couldn't realistically promote YES without risking their existence.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    Speedy said:

    SimonStClare said:

    Greece’s labour minister Panos Skourletis has reacted to the results, and hailed the outcome as a very good thing for democracy.

    “The goverment can go now with a very strong card to continue negotiations [with creditors],” he told reporters outside the the prime minister’s office.

    Greece’s veteran commentator Pavlos Tzimas has just told SKAI TV that it is vital that an agreement is reached by June 20, when Greece must meet a €3bn debt repayment to the European Central Bank.

    “But it is practically impossible to have an agreement in less than two weeks as [whatever is agreed] would need to be ratified by parliaments.”

    SKAI TV was the one that cancelled the broadcast of the Copa America final in favour of a 24 hour YES newsbroadcast yesterday, so their view goes straight to the bin.
    Because if there's one way of persuading the younger generation to vote for you, it's replacing a big football match on TV with a party political broadcast... Muppets.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,338
    Speedy said:

    NO achieved the greatest victory in Greek Electoral History.
    It's also the greatest defeat for an establishment (Labour should take lessons), and the EU (the OUT campaign also should take lessons).

    Tsipras enters the history books as a hero for the Left and to Euroskeptics in all of Europe.

    Be interesting if that's still the view in a week's time - or a month's.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,926
    Sandpit said:

    chestnut said:

    40% of voters seem not to have bothered to exercise their right.

    Yes, the 60% turnout seems rather low for such an important referendum.

    Also 6% of ballots returned are being rejected, which could be for a number of reasons but sounds a little high for a simple YES/NO question.
    Perhaps the other 40% are too busy looking for window ledges... ;)
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,338
    Speedy said:

    NO achieved the greatest victory in Greek Electoral History.
    ...

    Actually, the greatest victory in Greek electoral history was won by Prince Alfred of the United Kingdom.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_head_of_state_referendum,_1862
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    david_herdson said:

    Speedy said:

    NO achieved the greatest victory in Greek Electoral History.
    It's also the greatest defeat for an establishment (Labour should take lessons), and the EU (the OUT campaign also should take lessons).

    Tsipras enters the history books as a hero for the Left and to Euroskeptics in all of Europe.

    Be interesting if that's still the view in a week's time - or a month's.
    I now know how Tories felt on election night in May.
    You now know how non-Tories felt on election night in May.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,936
    SimonStClare said:

    Greece’s labour minister Panos Skourletis has reacted to the results, and hailed the outcome as a very good thing for democracy.

    “The goverment can go now with a very strong card to continue negotiations [with creditors],” he told reporters outside the the prime minister’s office.

    Greece’s veteran commentator Pavlos Tzimas has just told SKAI TV that it is vital that an agreement is reached by June 20, when Greece must meet a €3bn debt repayment to the European Central Bank.

    “But it is practically impossible to have an agreement in less than two weeks as [whatever is agreed] would need to be ratified by parliaments.”

    Jun 20 was 2 weeks ago
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    david_herdson said:

    Speedy said:

    NO achieved the greatest victory in Greek Electoral History.
    ...

    Actually, the greatest victory in Greek electoral history was won by Prince Alfred of the United Kingdom.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_head_of_state_referendum,_1862
    It wasn't quite a free vote in 1862 or with universal suffrage, so it doesn't actually count as a proper referendum just like a N.Korean election.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 24,846
    matt said:

    In genuinely serious battles between politics and economics, I'd be interested in hearing examples of politics winning the war not just the battle.

    Rainier vs Onassis? Onassis tried to buy Monaco (tl:dr version), Rainier changed the law to stop him.



  • FalseFlagFalseFlag Posts: 1,801
    We need to rescind free movement between ourselves and Greece Monday morning.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    bigjohnowls said:

    SimonStClare said:

    Greece’s labour minister Panos Skourletis has reacted to the results, and hailed the outcome as a very good thing for democracy.

    Jun 20 was 2 weeks ago

    Indeed Mr BJO - a slight bo bo by the Guardian me thinks - sure they meant July.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,915
    bigjohnowls said:

    SimonStClare said:

    Greece’s labour minister Panos Skourletis has reacted to the results, and hailed the outcome as a very good thing for democracy.

    “The goverment can go now with a very strong card to continue negotiations [with creditors],” he told reporters outside the the prime minister’s office.

    Greece’s veteran commentator Pavlos Tzimas has just told SKAI TV that it is vital that an agreement is reached by June 20, when Greece must meet a €3bn debt repayment to the European Central Bank.

    “But it is practically impossible to have an agreement in less than two weeks as [whatever is agreed] would need to be ratified by parliaments.”

    Jun 20 was 2 weeks ago
    If the Greek people voted to make an agreement by then, then it would undemocratic bullying to demand they abide by the passage of time. Or he meant to say July 20th I suppose.
  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    edited July 2015
    You only have to look at the comments from German Banks and Trade Associations to see where this is going.

    Bye Bye Greece.

    No voters will be rioting by Tuesday when the banks remain closed.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Kathimerini English
    Kathimerini English – ‏@ekathimerini

    Trillion-dollar stock managers see chaos on Greek ‘no’ vote http://dlvr.it/BQsrjj
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,936
    FalseFlag said:

    We need to rescind free movement between ourselves and Greece Monday morning.

    Why?
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    I'll be off for a while, I'm out to celebrate the biggest defeat of the EU in it's history.
    Hopefully that will open the floodgates and a prelude for the EU referendum.


    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WkxW0Dbf5qA
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,022
    SimonStClare said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    SimonStClare said:

    Greece’s labour minister Panos Skourletis has reacted to the results, and hailed the outcome as a very good thing for democracy.

    Jun 20 was 2 weeks ago

    Indeed Mr BJO - a slight bo bo by the Guardian me thinks - sure they meant July.
    Yes, the repayment is due on 20th July according to the DT live blog
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/11718775/Greek-referendum-day-results-live-no-vote-leads-by-60-per-cent.html
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,696
    From the Guardian, here's Caroline Lucas's thoughts:

    "The Greek people have made a decision which must now be respected. This referendum has seen EU states do their very best to undermine the democratic will of the Greek people but it’s time to draw a line under the past and move onwards.

    “History shows us that countries can escape crippling debt in a just way. In 1953, at London Conference, Greece was among the European nations signing a deal which allowed for the cancellation of German debt, to enable the country to grow again after the destruction of the Second World War. Europe needs to come together to offer the Greeks a deal which allows their country to be rebuilt."
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 38,915
    GIN1138 said:

    Moses_ said:

    Ryan Heath
    Ryan Heath –

    After past French, Dutch, & Irish NO votes... Whatever the #greekreferendum procedure flaws, #Greece adds to damning run of #EU rejections

    We'll be able to add the UK to that list of EU rejections in 2017!!!!!!!!!

    Who will then be told to think again.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,915
    tlg86 said:

    From the Guardian, here's Caroline Lucas's thoughts:

    "The Greek people have made a decision which must now be respected. This referendum has seen EU states do their very best to undermine the democratic will of the Greek people but it’s time to draw a line under the past and move onwards.

    “History shows us that countries can escape crippling debt in a just way. In 1953, at London Conference, Greece was among the European nations signing a deal which allowed for the cancellation of German debt, to enable the country to grow again after the destruction of the Second World War. Europe needs to come together to offer the Greeks a deal which allows their country to be rebuilt."

    I still don't get the undemocratic bit - how does a democratic vote in Greece mean Europe, as a whole, must 'offer the Greeks a deal'. Maybe it would be a good idea to do that, maybe not, but the rest of Europe didn't vote to make an offer to Greece, Greece just voted to demand a better offer be made.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,696
    So what will happen when the markets open in the morning?
  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    edited July 2015
    tlg86 said:

    So what will happen when the markets open in the morning?

    Everyone dumps anything to do with Greece?

    And buys De La Rue.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    Well to use a Greek analogy: the voters (only 60% turnout? wow!) have gone for Pandora's box. The one with all the chaos and ills in it when opened but with hope at the bottom.

    Question is how long does the hope last? If the Germans/Finns/Irish/Spanish/Dutch et al prevail over some Gallic hand wringing and stick to their line and get the ECB to turn the life support off that hope could turn 180 degrees in double quick time, and a lot of very innocent folk will lose virtually everything. "Tragedy" is over used but not here I fear.

    Essentially Tsipras and Varoufakis are punting everybody else's farm that the market pain will not be worth the tiny Greek candle and everyone else will cave. We shall see.

  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    So much for the supposed shy EU vote. Turns out the shy vote was eurosceptics.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    watford30 said:

    tlg86 said:

    So what will happen when the markets open in the morning?

    Everyone dumps anything to do with Greece?
    Probably already have!

    It will shake all European markets for a while, including ours, then turn into a buying opportunity.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,696
    watford30 said:

    tlg86 said:

    So what will happen when the markets open in the morning?

    Everyone dumps anything to do with Greece?

    And buys De La Rue.
    Very good!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,217
    edited July 2015
    kle4 said:

    tlg86 said:

    From the Guardian, here's Caroline Lucas's thoughts:

    "The Greek people have made a decision which must now be respected. This referendum has seen EU states do their very best to undermine the democratic will of the Greek people but it’s time to draw a line under the past and move onwards.

    “History shows us that countries can escape crippling debt in a just way. In 1953, at London Conference, Greece was among the European nations signing a deal which allowed for the cancellation of German debt, to enable the country to grow again after the destruction of the Second World War. Europe needs to come together to offer the Greeks a deal which allows their country to be rebuilt."

    I still don't get the undemocratic bit - how does a democratic vote in Greece mean Europe, as a whole, must 'offer the Greeks a deal'. Maybe it would be a good idea to do that, maybe not, but the rest of Europe didn't vote to make an offer to Greece, Greece just voted to demand a better offer be made.
    If my family votes not to make mortgage payments, must the bank respect that?

    [EDIT: I'm agreeing with you :smile: ]
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,936
    tlg86 said:

    So what will happen when the markets open in the morning?

    I take an educated guess that markets will PANIC!!
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Ryan Heath
    29m29 minutes ago
    Ryan Heath ‏@PoliticoRyan
    ARDTV reporting that no German politicians are willing to face a camera at the moment #oops #Greece #greekreferendum
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,217
    bigjohnowls said:

    FalseFlag said:

    We need to rescind free movement between ourselves and Greece Monday morning.

    Why?
    Because that will help push Greece in Russia's direction. Duh.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,936
    Shipping and Tourism to boom on Greek default.
  • JEOJEO Posts: 3,656
    david_herdson said:

    FPT -

    matt said:

    In genuinely serious battles between politics and economics, I'd be interested in hearing examples of politics winning the war not just the battle.

    It can happen in severely repressive dictatorships such as Stalin's Soviet Union. That's not to say you won't get some bizarre or perverse results but then sometimes the market delivers that. Where people have choice, ultimately, economics will always prove stronger.
    But economics trumped political ideology in the USSR. Lenin's initial reforms had to be quickly reversed with the New Economic Policy. A similar thing happened with the reopening of the private markets in North Korea following the 90s famine.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,936
    Moses_ said:

    Ryan Heath
    29m29 minutes ago
    Ryan Heath ‏@PoliticoRyan
    ARDTV reporting that no German politicians are willing to face a camera at the moment #oops #Greece #greekreferendum

    LOL
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,217
    bigjohnowls said:

    Shipping and Tourism to boom on Greek default.

    Shipping will be totally unaffected.

    Not clear to me why civil unrest would boost tourism, but maybe you're a different kind of tourist to me,
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Beggars can't be choosers.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,915
    It really does feel like the EU is in some serious trouble. The number of people who passionately believe in the project and, more than that, like the way things are and will continue to be structured, was never massive, but there were a lot of people who either didn't really mind it, or didn't like parts of it but were not motivated to actively oppose it. It is starting to feel as though the general 'don't like it' crowd are transitioning to 'will, in some circumstances, oppose it', even if that is not outright euroscepticism.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,696
    rcs1000 said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Shipping and Tourism to boom on Greek default.

    Shipping will be totally unaffected.

    Not clear to me why civil unrest would boost tourism, but maybe you're a different kind of tourist to me,
    Given what BJO has just gone thru....
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    kle4 said:

    tlg86 said:

    From the Guardian, here's Caroline Lucas's thoughts:

    "The Greek people have made a decision which must now be respected. This referendum has seen EU states do their very best to undermine the democratic will of the Greek people but it’s time to draw a line under the past and move onwards.

    “History shows us that countries can escape crippling debt in a just way. In 1953, at London Conference, Greece was among the European nations signing a deal which allowed for the cancellation of German debt, to enable the country to grow again after the destruction of the Second World War. Europe needs to come together to offer the Greeks a deal which allows their country to be rebuilt."

    I still don't get the undemocratic bit - how does a democratic vote in Greece mean Europe, as a whole, must 'offer the Greeks a deal'. Maybe it would be a good idea to do that, maybe not, but the rest of Europe didn't vote to make an offer to Greece, Greece just voted to demand a better offer be made.
    Quite. If I vote myself an Aston Martin and a night of bliss with a supermodel of my choice it's still not going to happen.
  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    bigjohnowls said:

    Shipping and Tourism to boom on Greek default.

    The only thing booming in Greece, will be Molotov Cocktails.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    matt said:

    Dair said:

    I completely agree that there is no security in expectations of future state pensions but your previous point was about private pensions and where they are invested.

    In all likelihood the private pensions will go bust before the governments do, at least as far as the Northern European economies are concerned and the UK has by far the most worthless private pension provision so it will be missed less by the average Brit than would be the case for a Germany or Dutch or Danish national.

    In any case, neither point offers anything other than penury to the vast bulk of people under 40 today.

    In what sense is are UK private pensions worthless, you ignorant buffoon?
    Predominantly due to the high level of charging, the poor tax benefits and the lack of public understanding of just how little a Money Purchase pension will give them in retirement.

    Add to that the complete lack of public engagement and education of what the last 20 years of pension changes actually mean for most people and you have a blindfolded public walking into oblivion.

    Of course as Government would need to take responsibility for the engagement and education which would have to include a pretty clear message of "The Tories and Labour have utterly screwed you all and for a lot of you there is nothing you can do even if you get the message now", there is no appetite in Government to take such an initiative.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,936
    rcs1000 said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Shipping and Tourism to boom on Greek default.

    Shipping will be totally unaffected.

    Not clear to me why civil unrest would boost tourism, but maybe you're a different kind of tourist to me,
    Well maybe you are a better economist than the one on Bloomberg who said Greek fundamentals were relatively strong and he expected Greek Shipping and Tourism to boom on Greek default.

    I am a recently converted stay at home tourist BTW
  • Eh_ehm_a_ehEh_ehm_a_eh Posts: 552
    Angela Merkel, Francois Hollande, Jean Claude Junker, Catherine Ashton, Christine Lagarde,
    your boys took one hell of a beating.
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    MaxPB said:

    I don't know where we go from here. Surely Grexit by Tuesday, the ECB can't keep the taps on now that there is no chance of a deal and the EU surely can't u-turn on all of the rhetoric over the last few days without a massive uprising in Spain and Portugal for anti-austerity parties.

    It has to be Grexit, I don't see any road where Greece stays in the Euro now, the EU will turn into a joke if they allow things to carry on as before with more unproductive talks.

    The EU are a joke and they will cave in.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,217
    bigjohnowls said:

    rcs1000 said:

    bigjohnowls said:

    Shipping and Tourism to boom on Greek default.

    Shipping will be totally unaffected.

    Not clear to me why civil unrest would boost tourism, but maybe you're a different kind of tourist to me,
    Well maybe you are a better economist than the one on Bloomberg who said Greek fundamentals were relatively strong and he expected Greek Shipping and Tourism to boom on Greek default.

    I am a recently converted stay at home tourist BTW
    Yes I am.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,915
    edited July 2015
    I looked forward to the Empress of Europe explaining what she now intends to do. Backpedaling, I imagine.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Speedy said:

    Sandpit said:

    chestnut said:

    40% of voters seem not to have bothered to exercise their right.

    Yes, the 60% turnout seems rather low for such an important referendum.

    Also 6% of ballots returned are being rejected, which could be for a number of reasons but sounds a little high for a simple YES/NO question.
    That should be the communists with their invalid votes, the Greek Communist Party was against NO but couldn't realistically promote YES without risking their existence.
    Greeks official Communists are at least consistent. They oppose everything.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    kle4 said:

    It really does feel like the EU is in some serious trouble. The number of people who passionately believe in the project and, more than that, like the way things are and will continue to be structured, was never massive, but there were a lot of people who either didn't really mind it, or didn't like parts of it but were not motivated to actively oppose it. It is starting to feel as though the general 'don't like it' crowd are transitioning to 'will, in some circumstances, oppose it', even if that is not outright euroscepticism.

    As I wrote the other day it has a whiff of Austria Hungary fin de siècle about it. We joined in 73 because frankly they'd done better tha us post 1945 and it looked like the future for our business. Behold the chaos on our TV screens right now where Peston is openly talking of medicine and food shortages within days in a European country all entirely caused by European unification policy.

    Surely we stare from our side of the Channel at the least thanking to God we are at least semi detached from this fiasco by not having the single currency?
  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    kle4 said:

    I looked forward to the Empress of Europe explaining what she now intends to do. Backpedaling, I imagine.

    She's doomed at home, if she caves in to Greece. Rock and a hard place.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 31,730
    welshowl said:

    kle4 said:

    tlg86 said:

    From the Guardian, here's Caroline Lucas's thoughts:

    "The Greek people have made a decision which must now be respected. This referendum has seen EU states do their very best to undermine the democratic will of the Greek people but it’s time to draw a line under the past and move onwards.

    “History shows us that countries can escape crippling debt in a just way. In 1953, at London Conference, Greece was among the European nations signing a deal which allowed for the cancellation of German debt, to enable the country to grow again after the destruction of the Second World War. Europe needs to come together to offer the Greeks a deal which allows their country to be rebuilt."

    I still don't get the undemocratic bit - how does a democratic vote in Greece mean Europe, as a whole, must 'offer the Greeks a deal'. Maybe it would be a good idea to do that, maybe not, but the rest of Europe didn't vote to make an offer to Greece, Greece just voted to demand a better offer be made.
    Quite. If I vote myself an Aston Martin and a night of bliss with a supermodel of my choice it's still not going to happen.
    That's not an applicable analogy. A better one is that if you take out a loan, you can of course freely decide not to pay it back. It is then up to the creditor to decide the best course of action under the law to pursue what is owed.
  • oxfordsimonoxfordsimon Posts: 5,845
    I am not sure how any referendum can be properly held with so little time for proper examination of the issues. The result is more about emotion and gut reaction rather than detailed consideration of the question. Viewed in that light, this result was pretty much inevitable.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,936
    nigel4england said:

    MaxPB said:

    I don't know where we go from here. Surely Grexit by Tuesday, the ECB can't keep the taps on now that there is no chance of a deal and the EU surely can't u-turn on all of the rhetoric over the last few days without a massive uprising in Spain and Portugal for anti-austerity parties.

    It has to be Grexit, I don't see any road where Greece stays in the Euro now, the EU will turn into a joke if they allow things to carry on as before with more unproductive talks.

    The EU are a joke and they will cave in.
    You have been right on this so far Nigel.

    I reckon a haircut will be seen as preferable to a complete default
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Spain getting nervous

    According to El Pais, Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy has announced an emergency meeting with the Commission for Economic Affairs to discuss the results of the Greek referendum.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 31,730
    kle4 said:

    I looked forward to the Empress of Europe explaining what she now intends to do. Backpedaling, I imagine.

    I think so too. Demonstrating to the British public how you should negotiate with the EU - by voting 'No' as a first salvo.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,936
    watford30 said:

    kle4 said:

    I looked forward to the Empress of Europe explaining what she now intends to do. Backpedaling, I imagine.

    She's doomed at home, if she caves in to Greece. Rock and a hard place.
    Does caving involve a new deal.

    Is the alternative not considerably more costly ie 100% default.

    Haircut methinks
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    watford30 said:

    tlg86 said:

    So what will happen when the markets open in the morning?

    Everyone dumps anything to do with Greece?

    And buys De La Rue.
    Maybe the Greeks will prefer to go with Giesecke & Devrient.

    Or not.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,217
    Euro trading down just less than 1%. Would expect European markets to be down mid single digits tomorrow, and US to be down 2-3%.
  • Moses_Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Ooo.... Things starting to hot up very quickly

    Jeanette Minns 19 MINUTES AGO
    Reuters reports that Alexis Tsipras has spoken with several European leaders, starting with the French president Francois Hollande. There are also suggestions that ECB president Mario Draghi has also been contacted.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    watford30 said:

    kle4 said:

    I looked forward to the Empress of Europe explaining what she now intends to do. Backpedaling, I imagine.

    She's doomed at home, if she caves in to Greece. Rock and a hard place.
    Mutti will not cave in. Some food aid yes, but cannot see her handing over money without major concessions.
  • welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,464
    Luckyguy1983 said:

    welshowl said:

    kle4 said:

    tlg86 said:

    From the Guardian, here's Caroline Lucas's thoughts:

    "The Greek people have made a decision which must now be respected. This referendum has seen EU states do their very best to undermine the democratic will of the Greek people but it’s time to draw a line under the past and move onwards.

    “History shows us that countries can escape crippling debt in a just way. In 1953, at London Conference, Greece was among the European nations signing a deal which allowed for the cancellation of German debt, to enable the country to grow again after the destruction of the Second World War. Europe needs to come together to offer the Greeks a deal which allows their country to be rebuilt."

    I still don't get the undemocratic bit - how does a democratic vote in Greece mean Europe, as a whole, must 'offer the Greeks a deal'. Maybe it would be a good idea to do that, maybe not, but the rest of Europe didn't vote to make an offer to Greece, Greece just voted to demand a better offer be made.
    Quite. If I vote myself an Aston Martin and a night of bliss with a supermodel of my choice it's still not going to happen.
    That's not an applicable analogy. A better one is that if you take out a loan, you can of course freely decide not to pay it back. It is then up to the creditor to decide the best course of action under the law to pursue what is owed.
    Yes, you are right of course. I was being a tad frivolous. The point I was making is it seems the Greeks ( well 60% of those voting) are not living in my reality paradigm. Good luck to them if they are right they'll have played a blinder and I'll doff my hat. However, they've just bet the lot and they cannot control the outcome.
  • FalseFlagFalseFlag Posts: 1,801
    bigjohnowls said:

    FalseFlag said:

    We need to rescind free movement between ourselves and Greece Monday morning.

    Why?
    It's in our interest not to be flooded by Greeks.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 40,166
    edited July 2015
    Some of my colleagues have been hauled into the office to have strategies ready for tomorrow morning. (How's that for preparation...)

    I'm a fairly decent analyst and I seriously don't see where this is going to go. If it is Grexit then it has to happen in the next few days, Greece cant afford for the banks to be closed for another two weeks and have a return to wartime style rationing and state food handouts.

    Also, what the hell does the ECB do tomorrow? How can they extend ELA funds to a country that has just voted no to a fairly reasonable bailout deal, it must break their charter to give money to insolvent banks who have no way of paying it back and who have a very uncertain future wrt the EMU.

    Tsipras needs to get in touch with De La Rue tonight and have Drachma ready to go into cash machines by the end of the week and have more shipped until they can get a local printing press sorted out.

    I also don't know how the EU reacts to the very likely default that is now coming. Greece owes the EFSF around €150bn in Euro denominated bonds. There is no way that Greece is ever going to be able to pay that back and I highly doubt the EU will accept a retroactive change to the terms of those bonds to renominate them into Drachma.

    Finally, who now lends to Greece? They have to raise FX in London and NY to pay for basic essentials like oil and grain, but I don't see anyone but the hedge funds getting involved which means 15%+ interest rates for short term debt at least until Greece can prove its creditworthiness. Having pissed the IMF off royally, how will Tsipras approach them now and try and get a reasonable debt restructuring through, especially with the LatAm defaults all ready to blow up soon.

    If there was a worse way for Greece to leave the Euro, I can't think of one. This has got to be the single worst strategic move I have ever seen.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    bigjohnowls said:

    watford30 said:

    kle4 said:

    I looked forward to the Empress of Europe explaining what she now intends to do. Backpedaling, I imagine.

    She's doomed at home, if she caves in to Greece. Rock and a hard place.
    Does caving involve a new deal.

    Is the alternative not considerably more costly ie 100% default.

    Haircut methinks
    To encourage the others...
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 60,217
    Moses_ said:

    Ooo.... Things starting to hot up very quickly

    Jeanette Minns 19 MINUTES AGO
    Reuters reports that Alexis Tsipras has spoken with several European leaders, starting with the French president Francois Hollande. There are also suggestions that ECB president Mario Draghi has also been contacted.

    Time is not on Tsipiras side.

    If the Eurozone and the ECB do nothing, it is Greece which cannot import food and fuel.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,926
    Eh_ehm_a_eh said:

    Angela Merkel, Francois Hollande, Jean Claude Junker, Catherine Ashton, Christine Lagarde,
    your boys took one hell of a beating.

    I have no idea how this is going to end up but knowing that right now, these "characters" are sitting in their offices and suffering, is very, very gratifying...

This discussion has been closed.