politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Farage’s “unresignation” makes him and his party look stupi

nigel4england said:

isam said:

nigel4england said:

isam said:

Think if all the PBers that were going to vote Ukip under a new leader but now will have to stick with their old party! #missedopportunity

For all the stick Farage is getting for being reinstated at the behest of the money men )and I think he should stay out) I have seen little criticism of Ed Balls alleged grubby attempt to get back in.

If he had won Thanet South by 1 vote and UKIP had got 8% you would have been happy for him to stay?

Basically unless Carswell wanted the job, it was going to be a non MP, so Farage's reason for stepping down (not being in Westminster) was bogus.. as it stands he is the best man for the job, and he is in he job

Rejoice!

I just think he needs a break, he has taken the fight to the establishment for 20 years now, has done a superb job but looks weary, which is no surprise. He could be just as effective if someone like Woolfe, Nuttall or Evans took over with appearances on QT, Newsnight etc

He should step out of the limelight for a period, recharge his batteries then come back for the good fight.

Woolfe could take UKIP on past where it is presently imo.

@Pong

'He's an absolute gift to Labour.'

In terms of showing them how you win an election?

nigel4england said:

Dair said:

nigel4england said:

I just think he needs a break, he has taken the fight to the establishment for 20 years now, has done a superb job but looks weary, which is no surprise. He could be just as effective if someone like Woolfe, Nuttall or Evans took over with appearances on QT, Newsnight etc

He should step out of the limelight for a period, recharge his batteries then come back for the good fight.

Why should it be such hard work? It's hardly much of an effort for Farage to take the fight to the estasblishment. He's firmly rooted at the heart of it.

Strangely enough I posted last week that Ian Hislop is now part of the establishment he has taken the piss out of for so long.

Hislop has ALWAYS been part of the Establishment. You don't become Editor of Private Eye (especially at a very young age) unless you are. His father was self-made but Hislop was very much a man of the Establishment and followed the Private School to Oxbridge to Job based on connections.

David Miliband has shown a lack of class. He has said what everyone else is now saying, but he would have gained much more respect if he had simply said that he was proud of what his brother had tried to achieve in the face of the severest personal attacks and that he was sorry that he had not succeeded, and simply left it at that.

Philip_Thompson said:

isam said:

nigel4england said:

isam said:

Think if all the PBers that were going to vote Ukip under a new leader but now will have to stick with their old party! #missedopportunity

For all the stick Farage is getting for being reinstated at the behest of the money men )and I think he should stay out) I have seen little criticism of Ed Balls alleged grubby attempt to get back in.

If he had won Thanet South by 1 vote and UKIP had got 8% you would have been happy for him to stay?

Basically unless Carswell wanted the job, it was going to be a non MP, so Farage's reason for stepping down (not being in Westminster) was bogus.. as it stands he is the best man for the job, and he is in he job

Rejoice!

The issue is one of credibility. He set a condition he'd resign by if he failed - and he failed. If he'd won South Thanet by 1 vote then that would have been a success not a failure.

The mistake was saying he'd resign if he didn't win in the first place. But once said, he should honour his pledges.

So even though it is worse for UKIP, he should resign to keep other parties supporters happy? OK

Anyway, he did resign, but they didn't accept it

Everyone's happy!

Flightpathl said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Philip_Thompson said:

isam said:

Farage the best man for the job and has got the job

Great news for Ukip, bad news for everyone else.. Hence the anger from other party followers

Happy Monday!

....

There are plenty of people who could take on the job of leading an out campaign both inside UKIP and out. ...

Just as importantly there is a basic problem with UKIP's current position on post exit status. We need to have a position that we will move to EEA/EFTA membership at least in the short term. This would greatly reassure business and would give the public a clear picture of what a post Brexit relationship with Europe would look like. As long as UKIP hold a position that we will not join EFTA then we are going to struggle to persuade voters that Brexit is the right move.

I agree with everything except the logic of EEA/EFTA. If you do that then why bother leaving the EU in the first place, you still have to follow most of the rules but don't get a say in writing them. That's the worst of all worlds.

The main reason UKIP say we should leave is to stop the free movement of people. Free movement extends to the EEA/EFTA too and not just the EU. In which case that argument is lost.

And this is another reason Out will lose. There are too many different views on "what happens next" that become impossible to reconcile.

Correct. If we leave the political part of the EU and join (or stay in the EEA) then this is the trade deal that would be on offer. And in terms of the single market it would not change where we are now.

Ignoring the fact that the single market is only one ever decreasing part of what the EU is about. I know you love to spread these myths about Flightpath but no matter how many times you write these things they are still basically bollocks.

Seeing as today is the day the bank account turned, I've stuck a donation to the site.

Calum, matched it for your Justgiving site too.

Philip_Thompson said:

isam said:

Farage the best man for the job and has got the job

Great news for Ukip, bad news for everyone else.. Hence the anger from other party followers

Happy Monday!

I don't see any anger, more incredulity and laughter. In an "Ed is Crap" kind of way.

We PB Tories kept saying "Ed is Crap" - because he was. In the same way Farage is past his Best Before date. If UKIP had any credibility then "thank you for your service" would have been the reaction to Farage's reaction.

I agree with Richard, BOO is supposed to be bigger than one man. Is there nobody else that could have taken on the job? Just makes him and the party a joke. Something to point and laugh at now that Ed is Crap has gone.

Farage staying as UKIP leader is a disaster for BOO. Can anyone really imagine what a BOO campaign will look like?
The other disaster for UKIP is that with Farage they remain tarred with the racist brush. Its Farage which has taken them down that route. They may be happy with it; well fine.

Its funny really - I always say that changing leader is fraught with danger, it requires careful thought. UKIP have changed their leader, without any careful thought at all - to the same leader and hey presto they have set off on a totally wrong track.

Philip_Thompson said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Philip_Thompson said:

I agree with everything except the logic of EEA/EFTA. If you do that then why bother leaving the EU in the first place, you still have to follow most of the rules but don't get a say in writing them. That's the worst of all worlds.

The main reason UKIP say we should leave is to stop the free movement of people. Free movement extends to the EEA/EFTA too and not just the EU. In which case that argument is lost.

And this is another reason Out will lose. There are too many different views on "what happens next" that become impossible to reconcile.

Not so. There is a huge difference between EFTA and EU membership - one reason why the Norwegians and Icelandics are so opposed to EU membership.

The actual membership cost is much lower, the burden of regulation is a fraction of what we currently endure, CAP and CFP membership are excluded, political interference and the move towards political union is ended. And of course EFTA has much better trade links with the rest of the world than the EU.

The free movement of people is indeed an issue but countries like Norway are able to have controls to right to settlement (as opposed to just right to work) that are not available to EU countries. Not least the requirement to learn Norwegian.

I'm not saying there's no material difference but those are all very technical differences. The ability to end the free movement of people is a very crystal clear change - while still having free movement but somewhat different is unclear. It makes it harder to give a compelling message as to why we should change. Plus the In campaign would make hay over the fact that if we went out (but into EFTA) we'd still have to obey rules the EU wrote but had no say over their writing. Referendums are typically won by the status quo if they can create fear and the arguments over that just write themselves.

Again not true. A month or so ago I posted a link to a paper produced by EFTA over exactly what say they have over EU/EFTA regulations starting with proposing and continuing all the way through the drafting process. Whilst they may not have the final vote, they do have a huge amount of input into the creation of regulation.

And of course the amount of regulation and law that actually applies to EFTA compared to the the amount that applies solely to the EU is very small.

antifrank said:

David Miliband has shown a lack of class. He has said what everyone else is now saying, but he would have gained much more respect if he had simply said that he was proud of what his brother had tried to achieve in the face of the severest personal attacks and that he was sorry that he had not succeeded, and simply left it at that.

Indeed, and it's very sad to see quite honestly. - obviously not ready to rebuild those bridges.

antifrank said:

I would have thought that football was far harder to make money from betting than politics. The competition must be far more intense.

Unfortunately there isn't a General Election every week, one reason I was hoping for a weak as piss minority Gov't that might collapse by August !

Dair said:

calum said:

The losing SLAB/SLID candidates still seem to be in a state of shock, I think many of them were expecting some swingback and extensive tactical voting to save them, just shows you shouldn't believe everything you read in the MSM !! - One of the losing SLAB candidates was in the Scotsman today:

http://www.scotsman.com/news/kenny-young-no-rash-changes-for-scottish-labour-1-3768996

...

Wow. Truly unbelievable stuff.

The sense of entitlement oozes from every work Kenny Young says is just beyond belief. I hope this sort of approach typifies Labour for the next year. It will ensure their utter demise in 2016. With the infighting, the clamour for the top list spot, the back-stabbing and the smearing, sticking with this failed attitude and sense of entitlement could take them well below 20% and that means in at least three regions they won't even get a List MSP.

As SLAB's 15 Holyrood constituency MSPs can no doubt easily predict their fate, the infighting for regional list spots is going to be brutal, particularly if Murphy and some of the SLAB losers want to get into the mix, I think I read somewhere that Blair McDougall has aspirations as well. I would agree that stripping out the tactical voters SLAB's core support level is heading to around the low 20s.

The other battle which is no doubt underway is the fight for H of L seats, no doubt the MSM will soon start whinging about the Scottish invasion of the H of L.

calum said:

My wife had the misfortune of stumbling into this twitter feed and was met by a tsunami of derision by the eclectic mix of Tories, Loyalists, UKippers and right wing MSM who seem to inhabit this twitter feed. After a few days she just gave up.

I notice that both her and the Wings chap have just passed the 105,000 tweets mark, makes even the most prolific posters on this site look like a bunch of lightweights.

Speaking of Wings, one of the questions on Football he had on his panelbase poll was whether Rangers were Ranger or a new club. Given the lack of any mention, I think we can assume that the results did not go the way he hoped for,

Richard_Tyndall said:

Baskerville said:

The Out campaign would be mad to be led by Farage.
It needs to bind together Conservative, Labour, Scots and English. They probably won't win anyway, but just being UKIP writ large will limit their prospects.
Don't ask me who would be the best leader as I'm not intending to vote Out unless DC is completely stonewalled, which I can't see happening.
The Outer I do admire, however, is Hannan, though he's probably not well known enough.

Dan Hannan, Frank Field, Kate Hoey. All good choices from politics.

They make the out logic very credibly. Even I as a Tory europhile respect all three tremendously. Frank Field has to be the most respectable MP Labour has.

Pulpstar said:

Seeing as today is the day the bank account turned, I've stuck a donation to the site.

Calum, matched it for your Justgiving site too.

Many thanks Pulpstar, much appreciated. I've also given Mike a slice of my winnings, as without this site we'd be lost. I think the bookies need to keep a closer eye on what we're all up to - Holyrood 2016 - I can hardly wait !!

calum said:

Dair said:

calum said:

The losing SLAB/SLID candidates still seem to be in a state of shock, I think many of them were expecting some swingback and extensive tactical voting to save them, just shows you shouldn't believe everything you read in the MSM !! - One of the losing SLAB candidates was in the Scotsman today:

http://www.scotsman.com/news/kenny-young-no-rash-changes-for-scottish-labour-1-3768996

...

Wow. Truly unbelievable stuff.

The sense of entitlement oozes from every work Kenny Young says is just beyond belief. I hope this sort of approach typifies Labour for the next year. It will ensure their utter demise in 2016. With the infighting, the clamour for the top list spot, the back-stabbing and the smearing, sticking with this failed attitude and sense of entitlement could take them well below 20% and that means in at least three regions they won't even get a List MSP.

As SLAB's 15 Holyrood constituency MSPs can no doubt easily predict their fate, the infighting for regional list spots is going to be brutal, particularly if Murphy and some of the SLAB losers want to get into the mix, I think I read somewhere that Blair McDougall has aspirations as well. I would agree that stripping out the tactical voters SLAB's core support level is heading to around the low 20s.

The other battle which is no doubt underway is the fight for H of L seats, no doubt the MSM will soon start whinging about the Scottish invasion of the H of L.

If Murphy does survive (and gets No 1 on glasgow) and McDougal gets on the ticket, No 1 on Mid Scotland and Fife? Kezia will be No 1 in Edinburgh and Marra No 1 in Dundee, I expect).

Those are the only four that can REALLY be sure of getting in.

You're over-estimating Labour core support.

Their list vote in 2011 was 26.31%

MTimT said:

Dair said:

calum said:

The losing SLAB/SLID candidates still seem to be in a state of shock, I think many of them were expecting some swingback and extensive tactical voting to save them, just shows you shouldn't believe everything you read in the MSM !! - One of the losing SLAB candidates was in the Scotsman today:

http://www.scotsman.com/news/kenny-young-no-rash-changes-for-scottish-labour-1-3768996

...

Wow. Truly unbelievable stuff.

The sense of entitlement oozes from every work Kenny Young says is just beyond belief. I hope this sort of approach typifies Labour for the next year. It will ensure their utter demise in 2016. With the infighting, the clamour for the top list spot, the back-stabbing and the smearing, sticking with this failed attitude and sense of entitlement could take them well below 20% and that means in at least three regions they won't even get a List MSP.

Dair, I am not sure it is a sense of entitlement. He clearly accepts that the electorate has spoken. He does not understand their choice. His contempt for nationalism shines through, and I suspect this is blinding him to understanding why the electorate would chose nationalism over the policies offered by Labour. But at least he wants to ask the voters why.

I really don't think that nationalism has been a choice in attracting much of the more recent SNP voters (since 2007).

Competent government has been. The attraction to nationalism has built from that. If people believe and have faith in politicians to deliver competent government they are more readily willing to believe other policies. the growth in support for Independence is driven by the SNP getting things right at Holyrood.

If you have two goups claiming Independence will be better./worse for Scotland because "reasons", you tend to believe the ones who deliver well and build a new Forth Bridge on time and under budget and a new billion pound hospital on time and under budget, not the shower who were responsible for Edinburgh Trams and the Scottish Parliament building.

Richard_Tyndall said:

Flightpathl said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Philip_Thompson said:

isam said:

Farage the best man for the job and has got the job

Great news for Ukip, bad news for everyone else.. Hence the anger from other party followers

Happy Monday!

....

There are plenty of people who could take on the job of leading an out campaign both inside UKIP and out. ...

Just as importantly there is a basic problem with UKIP's current position on post exit status. We need to have a position that we will move to EEA/EFTA membership at least in the short term. This would greatly reassure business and would give the public a clear picture of what a post Brexit relationship with Europe would look like. As long as UKIP hold a position that we will not join EFTA then we are going to struggle to persuade voters that Brexit is the right move.

I agree with everything except the logic of EEA/EFTA. If you do that then why bother leaving the EU in the first place, you still have to follow most of the rules but don't get a say in writing them. That's the worst of all worlds.

The main reason UKIP say we should leave is to stop the free movement of people. Free movement extends to the EEA/EFTA too and not just the EU. In which case that argument is lost.

And this is another reason Out will lose. There are too many different views on "what happens next" that become impossible to reconcile.

Correct. If we leave the political part of the EU and join (or stay in the EEA) then this is the trade deal that would be on offer. And in terms of the single market it would not change where we are now.

Ignoring the fact that the single market is only one ever decreasing part of what the EU is about. I know you love to spread these myths about Flightpath but no matter how many times you write these things they are still basically bollocks.

Cobblers to your bollocks. !
Cameron has plainly said we do not want to be part of any ever closer union. 'Not want'. Given the Euro and Eurozone, that is the way the EU is going. We have to negotiate around that. 'That' being the non single market - the closer financial and political union.
Being in the EEA is one option, but really as far as the single market and movement of labour it will not make much difference to us compared to now.
But you come close to grasping the point. The EU is there even without us. A changing EU. It is not going to go away. Even the Euro, much to my amazement is not going to go away. We need renegotiation, we need a referendum.
Inevitably there will be much hysteria on the way. Clearly it has started now.

Dair said:

MTimT said:

Dair said:

calum said:

The losing SLAB/SLID candidates still seem to be in a state of shock, I think many of them were expecting some swingback and extensive tactical voting to save them, just shows you shouldn't believe everything you read in the MSM !! - One of the losing SLAB candidates was in the Scotsman today:

http://www.scotsman.com/news/kenny-young-no-rash-changes-for-scottish-labour-1-3768996

...

Wow. Truly unbelievable stuff.

The sense of entitlement oozes from every work Kenny Young says is just beyond belief. I hope this sort of approach typifies Labour for the next year. It will ensure their utter demise in 2016. With the infighting, the clamour for the top list spot, the back-stabbing and the smearing, sticking with this failed attitude and sense of entitlement could take them well below 20% and that means in at least three regions they won't even get a List MSP.

Dair, I am not sure it is a sense of entitlement. He clearly accepts that the electorate has spoken. He does not understand their choice. His contempt for nationalism shines through, and I suspect this is blinding him to understanding why the electorate would chose nationalism over the policies offered by Labour. But at least he wants to ask the voters why.

I really don't think that nationalism has been a choice in attracting much of the more recent SNP voters (since 2007).

Competent government has been. The attraction to nationalism has built from that. If people believe and have faith in politicians to deliver competent government they are more readily willing to believe other policies. the growth in support for Independence is driven by the SNP getting things right at Holyrood.

If you have two goups claiming Independence will be better./worse for Scotland because "reasons", you tend to believe the ones who deliver well and build a new Forth Bridge on time and under budget and a new billion pound hospital on time and under budget, not the shower who were responsible for Edinburgh Trams and the Scottish Parliament building.

Fair point.

HYUFD said:

PhilipThompson Farage won the elections, Salmond won the elections end of conversation. UKIP's victory in the Euro elections was the first time either the Tories or Labour had failed to win a national UK election since 1918. The European elections were also pure PR, the Holyrood elections were constituency top up. Farage of course became an MEP

MalcG Agree entirely

Either you are being deliberately disingenuous or are very silly.

2011 Salmond won a healthy majority. 69/129 seats on nearly half the vote.
2014 Farage won less than a third. 24/73 seats on just over a quarter of the vote.

To equate these as being the same is ignorance. You can say end of conversation I'd you want but you're denying reality that the two scenarios simply are not comparable.

Philip_Thompson said:

HYUFD said:

PhilipThompson The Out campaign, like the Yes campaign, are both populist campaigns driven by working and lower middle class voters which start behind in the polls and then get closer come referendum day. The AV referendum was a campaign driven by the metropolitan elite and the liberal upper middle classes which started ahead in the polls and managed to lose, a totally different story

Farage and Carswell are metropolitan not working or lower class. Might have had a bigger chance of being viewed as working class if Farage went.

AV started ahead and still lost. EU Out is starting behind and planning on loss it seems. That isn't a recipe for success.

Polling on EU membership fluctuates. If the UK is compelled by the EU to accept thousands of asylum seekers, who would bet on In retaining a narrow lead?

MTimT said:

Dair, I am not sure it is a sense of entitlement. He clearly accepts that the electorate has spoken. He does not understand their choice. His contempt for nationalism shines through, and I suspect this is blinding him to understanding why the electorate would chose nationalism over the policies offered by Labour. But at least he wants to ask the voters why.

He says he wants to ask the voters why, but that's undermined a bit by the fact that, about two paragraphs earlier, he's already pronounced why: people are morons taken in by vacuous slogans and wouldn't listen to SLAB and their wonderful policies which would have built an Eden on earth.

Omnium said:

Richard_Tyndall said:

Baskerville said:

The Out campaign would be mad to be led by Farage.
It needs to bind together Conservative, Labour, Scots and English. They probably won't win anyway, but just being UKIP writ large will limit their prospects.
Don't ask me who would be the best leader as I'm not intending to vote Out unless DC is completely stonewalled, which I can't see happening.
The Outer I do admire, however, is Hannan, though he's probably not well known enough.

Dan Hannan, Frank Field, Kate Hoey. All good choices from politics.

The EU referendum is far too important to let bad choices of opinion leaders cloud the issue. I wonder if there's merit in appointing leaders of the two sides? Something like Hague against and Clegg for. I know Hague isn't terribly eurosceptic, but his job would be to marshal their forces - and he's a very honest man.

I'm not sure Hague would be on the out side. I suspect he's more likely to be ok with being in a reformed EU.

Hague was right to keep us out of the euro. Mission accomplished. That isn't the same as BOO.

Sean_F said:

Philip_Thompson said:

HYUFD said:

PhilipThompson The Out campaign, like the Yes campaign, are both populist campaigns driven by working and lower middle class voters which start behind in the polls and then get closer come referendum day. The AV referendum was a campaign driven by the metropolitan elite and the liberal upper middle classes which started ahead in the polls and managed to lose, a totally different story

Farage and Carswell are metropolitan not working or lower class. Might have had a bigger chance of being viewed as working class if Farage went.

AV started ahead and still lost. EU Out is starting behind and planning on loss it seems. That isn't a recipe for success.

Polling on EU membership fluctuates. If the UK is compelled by the EU to accept thousands of asylum seekers, who would bet on In retaining a narrow lead?

I agree. But it's not going to happen. We have an opt out on asylum and it'd be suicide for Cameron not to use it.

If for some reason he does something silly then of course all bets are off.

BBC Scotland's chief nepotist Sarah Smith doing a documentary "Rise of the SNP". Wonder how Fox News she will be about the 30s and 1979.

Alanbrooke said:

calum said:

Dair said:

calum said:

Dair said:

calum said:

Alistair said:

SNP Election facts

36 of the SNP's 56 seats were won with more than 50% of the vote
Biggest win - Dundee East 61.91% (I got on this at 2/5)
Smallest vote share - Edinburgh South 33.79%
Smallest vote share to win a seat - Berwickshire, Roxburgh & Selkirk 36.6% (They lost Orkeny & Shetland and Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale & Tweeddale with a higher percentage of the vote.
The SNP got less than 40% in only 5 seats.

The Cybernits are still in meltdown mode trying to rejig the numbers every which way, to try and cling on to some form of success:

https://twitter.com/Historywoman

I think the fact that they were able to only hold onto 3 seats by relying on tactical voting is a sad indictment of how low the 3 "mainstream parties" have fallen.

Jill Stephenson and the rest of the cyberunionist thugs are just hilarious.

Most of them are doing the "multiply the turnout by the vote share" to claim SNP not legitimate representatives due to only getting 35.5% of the vote.

Quite ironic when the Tory Government only got 36.8% and that turns into 24.3%.

I feel sorry for the poor souls who try and point out facts like this to Jill, they just get shouted down, she certainly deserves the title of the Cybernat Slayer.

Shouldn't a slayer occasionally, like, slay. Or at least win the odd battle/argument.

The title Dockside Hooker for the Cybernats might be more accurate.

My wife had the misfortune of stumbling into this twitter feed and was met by a tsunami of derision by the eclectic mix of Tories, Loyalists, UKippers and right wing MSM who seem to inhabit this twitter feed. After a few days she just gave up.

I notice that both her and the Wings chap have just passed the 105,000 tweets mark, makes even the most prolific posters on this site look like a bunch of lightweights.

PB.com has changed IT platform at least three times. I'd say the long term posters on here are comfortably nudging 100k posts.

I stand corrected !!

Just reading comments from Tim Farron on the BBC news website. He says the Tories fought their election campaign negatively based on fear.

Bloody hypocrite, did he not hear or himself participate in the Tory "baby-eaters, cuts and poverty" scare stories the Lib Dems put about on a daily basis, including from the Leader of the party who presumably was still harbouring hopes of getting back into bed with Cameron et al in Coalition V2.0?

Or is that guff not "fear" because it was, in their leftie minds, actually true?

Number 10 website:

Baroness Stowell listed as a full member of the Cabinet and then listed again as a Minister not officially in the Cabinet but still attending Cabinet meetings.

Have standards now fallen so much that literally nobody does a sense check for even one minute on any data / information they prepare to check that it's actually correct?

Not even No 10 Downing Street?

Totally and utterly hopeless.

https://www.gov.uk/government/ministers

One thing that may have puzzled voters in Middle England is the left's obsession with "food banks". Many people will have been asking themselves why people need to go to food banks when they receive relatively generous welfare benefit payments.

Sean_F said:

radsatser said:

What is it with those who have nothing to do with the party, who seem to think they have some insight into what is good for the party.
If we had taken any notice of the advice, analysis, predictions from what appears to be our crystal ball gazing betters, we wouldn't be sitting on 13 % of the vote and a second position across a large tranche of the country.

We would have reached UKIP peak every week since 2010, UKIP peak at every set of elections, UKIP peak at every smear, in fact we would have hung up our kippers for good probably a 1000 times if anybody in UKIP had taken the opinions seriously.

The NEC of UKIP were right to reject NIgel's resignation, if the telephone calls, texts and emails they have had with activists and branches is sayiong anything close to that in my small area of UKIP, appalled at the decision of Nigel to stand down, then they had no choice but to try and convince him to reconsider. The party does not look stupid at all apart from those who wish it ill, it would have been stupidity on a monumental scale to allow the most repected and loyal politician in this country to leave politics.

Mike give it a rest on UKIP, you have been wrpong about them for years, and I have no doubt you will be wrong again, I( would have thought you would be mopre concerned with worrying about the future of the LibDems, now they really have reached LibDem peak.

NIgel Farage should not have stood down, he had no reason to stand down, the membership support him to the hilt, and if we appear flaky, then you already think that anyway, so what's changed.

Every day is apparently a disaster for UKIP. Yet, somehow the party won 4m votes, and gained another 175 councillors.

4 million votes and 1 seat is a disaster compared to what we were being told UKIP would get.

As the new Lib Dems protest party they got a rather poor return.

Bob__Sykes said:

Just reading comments from Tim Farron on the BBC news website. He says the Tories fought their election campaign negatively based on fear.

Bloody hypocrite, did he not hear or himself participate in the Tory "baby-eaters, cuts and poverty" scare stories the Lib Dems put about on a daily basis, including from the Leader of the party who presumably was still harbouring hopes of getting back into bed with Cameron et al in Coalition V2.0?

Or is that guff not "fear" because it was, in their leftie minds, actually true?

Yes, the Conservative campaign was negative. And, yes, it worked. There's nothing wrong with negative campaigning if it taps into genuine public fears. The idea of a minority Labour government held to ransom by the SNP really worried Middle England and Wales.

Claims that the Tories would destroy the NHS are a good example of negative campaigning that failed, because they weren't plausible.

Philip_Thompson said:

Sean_F said:

radsatser said:

What is it with those who have nothing to do with the party, who seem to think they have some insight into what is good for the party.
If we had taken any notice of the advice, analysis, predictions from what appears to be our crystal ball gazing betters, we wouldn't be sitting on 13 % of the vote and a second position across a large tranche of the country.

We would have reached UKIP peak every week since 2010, UKIP peak at every set of elections, UKIP peak at every smear, in fact we would have hung up our kippers for good probably a 1000 times if anybody in UKIP had taken the opinions seriously.

The NEC of UKIP were right to reject NIgel's resignation, if the telephone calls, texts and emails they have had with activists and branches is sayiong anything close to that in my small area of UKIP, appalled at the decision of Nigel to stand down, then they had no choice but to try and convince him to reconsider. The party does not look stupid at all apart from those who wish it ill, it would have been stupidity on a monumental scale to allow the most repected and loyal politician in this country to leave politics.

Mike give it a rest on UKIP, you have been wrpong about them for years, and I have no doubt you will be wrong again, I( would have thought you would be mopre concerned with worrying about the future of the LibDems, now they really have reached LibDem peak.

NIgel Farage should not have stood down, he had no reason to stand down, the membership support him to the hilt, and if we appear flaky, then you already think that anyway, so what's changed.

Every day is apparently a disaster for UKIP. Yet, somehow the party won 4m votes, and gained another 175 councillors.

4 million votes and 1 seat is a disaster compared to what we were being told UKIP would get.

As the new Lib Dems protest party they got a rather poor return.

I thought they'd win 4 seats. But, I always thought 11-13% was the likely vote share. Nobody goes from being a fringe party to forming the government in one election.

Verulamius said:

MikeL said:

Number 10 website:

Baroness Stowell listed as a full member of the Cabinet and then listed again as a Minister not officially in the Cabinet but still attending Cabinet meetings.

Have standards now fallen so much that literally nobody does a sense check for even one minute on any data / information they prepare to check that it's actually correct?

Not even No 10 Downing Street?

Totally and utterly hopeless.

https://www.gov.uk/government/ministers

Another point is that the CST is listed as a Cabinet minister, whilst on the appointments list the CST is stated as attending Cabinet.

That was also wrong earlier on the page I linked to - but he has now been deleted from "also attending Cabinet" - ie he is full member.

AndyJS said:

One thing that may have puzzled voters in Middle England is the left's obsession with "food banks". Many people will have been asking themselves why people need to go to food banks when they receive relatively generous welfare benefit payments.

I'm fine if people aren't experts on food banks, after all most people have plenty of their own worries to deal with. But food banks are used by people who have had their benefits sanctioned. I think you actually have to prove it in many cases.

Farage does indeed look a bit of a knob today.

After seeing David Millibands comments on the campaign and having a brother it really brings home to me the human tragedy of Ed's ambition.

Richard_Nabavi said:

Sean_F said:

Yes, the Conservative campaign was negative. And, yes, it worked. There's nothing wrong with negative campaigning if it taps into genuine public fears. The idea of a minority Labour government held to ransom by the SNP really worried Middle England and Wales.

Claims that the Tories would destroy the NHS are a good example of negative campaigning that failed, because they weren't plausible.

The shrieks of sanctimonous anguish from the LibDems are particularly hilarious. This is the party which tried to decapitate Michael Howard in what can only be described as an act of personal malice, and which based nearly all of its electoral success in the last four elections on the pithy slogan 'Only the LibDems can keep out the Tories here' (or in some cases 'keep out Labour here').

This time round they wanted 'differentiation'. Well, they got it.

They gained their seats dishonourably, via anti-politics, and then [mostly] lost them with honour, via the coalition.

isam said:

Best news the party could have had.. No wonder the others are angry

His resignation was rejected... He didn't unresign

Myself, I am not angry, It's a pathetic joke really isn't it?

I remember when you used to say you would tell it like it was rather than spin.

antifrank said:

David Miliband has shown a lack of class. He has said what everyone else is now saying, but he would have gained much more respect if he had simply said that he was proud of what his brother had tried to achieve in the face of the severest personal attacks and that he was sorry that he had not succeeded, and simply left it at that.

Correct. One does get the impression there might not be much love lost there.

I'm sure one day, as brothers, they will reconcile. But it might take a few more years.

FrankBooth said:

Howard fought a revolting election campaign and it's only a pity the Lib Dems didn't win the seat. Do you think Howard should have been returned uncontested?

No, I believe that political parties are free to campaign as they feel best. My point is that it's a bit rich of the LibDems, of all parties, to accuse anyone else of negative campaigning.

Flightpathl said:

Philip_Thompson said:

isam said:

Farage the best man for the job and has got the job

Great news for Ukip, bad news for everyone else.. Hence the anger from other party followers

Happy Monday!

I don't see any anger, more incredulity and laughter. In an "Ed is Crap" kind of way.

We PB Tories kept saying "Ed is Crap" - because he was. In the same way Farage is past his Best Before date. If UKIP had any credibility then "thank you for your service" would have been the reaction to Farage's reaction.

I agree with Richard, BOO is supposed to be bigger than one man. Is there nobody else that could have taken on the job? Just makes him and the party a joke. Something to point and laugh at now that Ed is Crap has gone.

Farage staying as UKIP leader is a disaster for BOO. Can anyone really imagine what a BOO campaign will look like?
The other disaster for UKIP is that with Farage they remain tarred with the racist brush. Its Farage which has taken them down that route. They may be happy with it; well fine.

Its funny really - I always say that changing leader is fraught with danger, it requires careful thought. UKIP have changed their leader, without any careful thought at all - to the same leader and hey presto they have set off on a totally wrong track.

OK totally anecdotal from North lancs/South Cumbria.
On the rare occasions I drift into political discussions with people I mix with, DC is OK, but a bit too wet, Ed was, well nice but useless, but always Farage was met with a torrent of abuse, he is very divisive, and toxic to many voters.
Promising to resign, and then reneging, consigns him to lying politician status.

Just out of interest, are any of you keen to see some maps of the result? I'm planning to do a Green v UKIP and Con v Lab ones in a bit (w/ gradient , e.g. 5, 10, 15, 20, 30%+ lead each a different colour). Does anyone have any special requests/ suggestions?

(They will be this quality: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/3e/2015UKElectionMap.svg)

Casino_Royale said:

It's clear that Cameron is trying to do three things with his reshuffle:

(1) Continue the modernisation pitch, by promoting strong female and ethnic minority Conservative talent and thus diversifying the look and feel of his government
(2) Bring the Right on board
(3) Cement George Osborne's position

So far, he seems to have done a pretty good job on all three counts.

And in the process drive fairness and social awareness ultimately taking any space a labour party will want to claim as its own. As long as DC takes immediate control of the agenda by the time labour have anything like a credible story they will be too late. Indeed the internal discord in labour between left and right could well be leading to a comprehensive split and the dissolution of labour as we know it

jayfdee said:

Flightpathl said:

Philip_Thompson said:

isam said:

Farage the best man for the job and has got the job

Great news for Ukip, bad news for everyone else.. Hence the anger from other party followers

Happy Monday!

I don't see any anger, more incredulity and laughter. In an "Ed is Crap" kind of way.

We PB Tories kept saying "Ed is Crap" - because he was. In the same way Farage is past his Best Before date. If UKIP had any credibility then "thank you for your service" would have been the reaction to Farage's reaction.

I agree with Richard, BOO is supposed to be bigger than one man. Is there nobody else that could have taken on the job? Just makes him and the party a joke. Something to point and laugh at now that Ed is Crap has gone.

Farage staying as UKIP leader is a disaster for BOO. Can anyone really imagine what a BOO campaign will look like?
The other disaster for UKIP is that with Farage they remain tarred with the racist brush. Its Farage which has taken them down that route. They may be happy with it; well fine.

Its funny really - I always say that changing leader is fraught with danger, it requires careful thought. UKIP have changed their leader, without any careful thought at all - to the same leader and hey presto they have set off on a totally wrong track.

OK totally anecdotal from North lancs/South Cumbria.
On the rare occasions I drift into political discussions with people I mix with, DC is OK, but a bit too wet, Ed was, well nice but useless, but always Farage was met with a torrent of abuse, he is very divisive, and toxic to many voters.
Promising to resign, and then reneging, consigns him to lying politician status.

Equally anecdotally, most people I mix with admire Farage, but were worried UKIP would split the right wing vote, and let Labour in.

AndyJS said:

One thing that may have puzzled voters in Middle England is the left's obsession with "food banks". Many people will have been asking themselves why people need to go to food banks when they receive relatively generous welfare benefit payments.

I would like to see an objective non-partisan analysis of food banks, their growth and who uses them. And why.

I recognise the Left's answer is "welfare cuts", but I think there might be more to it than that.

Bob__Sykes said:

Just reading comments from Tim Farron on the BBC news website. He says the Tories fought their election campaign negatively based on fear.

Bloody hypocrite, did he not hear or himself participate in the Tory "baby-eaters, cuts and poverty" scare stories the Lib Dems put about on a daily basis, including from the Leader of the party who presumably was still harbouring hopes of getting back into bed with Cameron et al in Coalition V2.0?

Or is that guff not "fear" because it was, in their leftie minds, actually true?

The Lib Dems aren't your little friends any more, you have no friends now, you are all alone in the splendid isolation of majority government.

Richard_Nabavi said:

Tissue_Price said:

They gained their seats dishonourably, via anti-politics, and then [mostly] lost them with honour, via the coalition.

That's a brilliant sentence!

Seconded!

Election facts:

Of Labour's chosen 106 targets, 35 swung to Labour, 71 swung away from the party. Of the 35 that swung to them, 22 were swings from Con to Lab, 13 were swings from LD to Lab. Of the 35, 8 were in London.

It's the right move by UKIP and Farage.

It won't cost UKIP any existing votes because his supporters love him, he's the best man to lead UKIP into the EU referendum and without him UKIP would be screwed.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/nigel-farage/11598007/Nigel-Farage-Why-I-decided-I-had-to-stay-on-as-Ukip-leader.html:

I decided that as much as I had earned my holidays. As much as I wanted to spend the summer fishing, walking, and of course, in the European Parliament where all hell is currently breaking loose – that I owed it to the party that got me here.

He talks as if being in the limelight is some kind of chore for him.

HYUFD said:

Calum Many Scottish Tories will vote Labour at Holyrood with their first vote and Tory on the list to try and stop Sturgeon getting another majority and potentially another referendum. At Holyrood the battle will be Labour v SNP, not Labour v Tory as it was at Westminster, outside of the more Tory borders

Calum will have his view, but surely it would make far, far more sense for Tories to vote for real Blue Tories in Holyrood with its partly proportional voting system. You're more likely to get a real Tory there than voting Tory in the Westminster election. And there was not much tactical voting in the latter this year.

Another reason to ca canny is what SLAB might do. It might even declare UDI from London and become a fully fledged pro-indy party in the Keir Hardie tradition.