politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Jim Murphy loses his seat now in what is now Scötterdämmeru

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  • Purseybear
    Purseybear Posts: 766
    CONS GAIN TORBAY
  • Speedy
    Speedy Posts: 12,100
    LordA predicted a large LD victory in Eastleigh.
  • Ave_it
    Ave_it Posts: 2,411
    Clacton...muppets
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,077
    MP_SE said:

    Douglas Carswell not looking so safe now. A hugely profitable evening. Quite a strange feeling on the one hand a disappointing result for UKIP and on the other a very healthy bank balance.

    Carswell 3,000 majority
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    Carswell back
  • Prodicus
    Prodicus Posts: 658
    Carswell in, reduced maj from 10k to 3k
  • JackW
    JackW Posts: 14,787
    "JackW Dozen"

    Enfield North - Labour Gain - Yes
  • AndreaParma_82
    AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Con hold Harrow East
  • Sandpit
    Sandpit Posts: 56,045
    EASTLEIGH!!!!!!!
  • Chameleon
    Chameleon Posts: 4,265
    edited May 2015
    Lab targets 1, 2, 3 & 4 all currently held with increased majorities. Not looking good for Nick (No.8) I'm afraid.
  • Plato
    Plato Posts: 15,724
    Wow - Carswell maj cut to just over 3k
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    edited May 2015
    kle4 We wiped it off him in September when it really counted, I will not begrudge Alex a smug grin at Labour's massacre
  • RobinWiggs
    RobinWiggs Posts: 621
    LD wipeout in Huhne's old seat.
  • RodCrosby
    RodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Lab gain Enfield N
  • TCPoliticalBetting
    TCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    eastleigh gone. wow
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,608
    AndyJS... something happened in cell B86 on your spreadsheet.
  • Dair
    Dair Posts: 6,108
    kle4 said:

    Dair said:

    ANUS SARWAR IS GONE.

    SNP win Glasgow Central.

    Lib Dems 6th in Glasgow Central

    I confidently predict they'll do better next time - in the sense I doubt they'll get anyone to stand, so they cannot do better or worse.
    They would have to win a seat to do better.
  • Gadfly
    Gadfly Posts: 1,205
    Carswell majority down from 10K to 3K. Farage and Reckless have to be toast.
  • Ave_it
    Ave_it Posts: 2,411
    GRRRRRRR North London muppets!
  • AndreaParma_82
    AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Con hold Hendon
  • Flockers_pb
    Flockers_pb Posts: 204
    With that swing, Carswell IS Ukip...
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    @carrieapples: Conservatives HOLD Hendon
  • foxinsoxuk
    foxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Plato said:

    Wow - Carswell maj cut to just over 3k

    Giles Watling is getting closer.

  • RodCrosby
    RodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited May 2015
    Con hold Hendon

    and Stockton S
  • JonCisBack
    JonCisBack Posts: 911
    Con hold Hendon
  • Sandpit
    Sandpit Posts: 56,045
    Carswell has a seriously reduced majority - how will that translate to Farage and TPD Reckless?
  • Philip_Thompson
    Philip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Clacton Tory GAIN in next election. That's a shockingly low vote for the late UKIP party.
  • Sean_F
    Sean_F Posts: 39,132
    Slackbladder said:

    Prodicus said:

    Lab gain Enfield North. Lab No 30 target.

    Urgh not so good, but another london seat
    No surprise. Demographic change is destroying the Conservatives here.
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,724
    edited May 2015
    Surprised how close Tories pushed Carswell in Clacton. I was under the impression he was very popular and his popularity went beyond UKIP or Tory.
  • tlg86
    tlg86 Posts: 26,950
    So it looks like the Tories squeezed Ukip in the South. My message to the Tories is, don't you dare let them down.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    edited May 2015
    This could well be an extinction level event for the Lib Dems
  • Jonathan
    Jonathan Posts: 22,107
    Good to see Carswell back.
  • AlastairMeeks
    AlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    This looks like a majority to me. Outside London, Labour have made no progress in England and Wales against the Conservatives so far.
  • JonCisBack
    JonCisBack Posts: 911
    This appears to be the best site for live results

    http://news.sky.com/election/results
  • Ave_it
    Ave_it Posts: 2,411
    Looks like the exit poll is going to be bang on - again!!!!
  • Philip_Thompson
    Philip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Carswell looks very upset.
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    kle4 Canada had 2 referendums, it was always likely, but unless Brexit provided a deal done on FFA I think it is a few years off yet
  • Artist
    Artist Posts: 1,893
    edited May 2015
    Carswell won't want another election soon..
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    Carswell holds Clacton, first UKIP seat
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    @DaveHill: RECOUNT IN CROYDON CENTRAL (I'm reliably informed) #GE2015 #london
  • Tissue_Price
    Tissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Sandpit said:

    Carswell has a seriously reduced majority - how will that translate to Farage and TPD Reckless?

    Rumour Con win Thurrock on 3rd count
  • Chameleon
    Chameleon Posts: 4,265
    Lab targets 1-4 all held by Tories with significantly increased majorities...
  • Plato
    Plato Posts: 15,724
    Cons hold Stockton S
  • KentRising
    KentRising Posts: 2,926
    edited May 2015
    Carswell: 5 million people will vote for UKIP and Greens but will be represented by a handful of MPs at most. Political reform. Westminster has become a cartel.
  • Brom
    Brom Posts: 3,760
    Delighted that Douglas won comfortably. Some solace!
  • Saltire
    Saltire Posts: 525
    Tim_B said:

    As an ex-pat Englishman with a Scottish wife, is tonight's result making Scottish independence more likely?

    Yes. A Conservative government will make it more likely. If the SNP repeat with 50% of the vote at Holyrood next year then I would guess there will be a vote by 2018
  • AndreaParma_82
    AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Con hold Stockton South and Dudley South
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    @SophyRidgeSky: Sources close to Ed Miliband playing down resignation speculation, saying there are still results to come in #GE2015
  • Sean_F
    Sean_F Posts: 39,132
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Clacton Tory GAIN in next election. That's a shockingly low vote for the late UKIP party.

    Don't get high on your own supply. UKIP have won millions of votes.
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,077
    Ave_it said:

    Horrible result in Ilford N swing -6%

    **whistles innocently**
  • Plato
    Plato Posts: 15,724
    edited May 2015
    Con hold Worc W and Camb S
  • LucyJones
    LucyJones Posts: 651
    Wasn't Sturgeon reported to have told the French ambassador or some such that she would prefer Cameron to win this election?
    I'm glad that Cameron appears to have won, but I do fear for the future of the UK with the result we seem to be looking at. Still, I was pretty much resigned to the country being run by a Labour/SNP stitch up before the exit polls came out, which was worrying in a different way.
  • RodCrosby
    RodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Con hold Thurrock
  • Purseybear
    Purseybear Posts: 766
    BBC useless not having the vote ticker up at the counts
  • Dair
    Dair Posts: 6,108
    Begg has been slaughtered in Aberdeen South.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Ave_it said:

    Horrible result in Ilford N swing -6%

    **whistles innocently**
    You are so in my bad books.
  • AndreaParma_82
    AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    yes, there's still time from 3-4 Con gains from Lab
    Scott_P said:

    @SophyRidgeSky: Sources close to Ed Miliband playing down resignation speculation, saying there are still results to come in #GE2015

  • Richard_Nabavi
    Richard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Zac Goldsmith majority up from 4000 to 23000!

    Not a good indicator for Vince...
  • Slackbladder
    Slackbladder Posts: 9,800
    Thurrock hold!!!
  • Floater
    Floater Posts: 14,207
    Tories hold Thurrock
  • Prodicus
    Prodicus Posts: 658
    edited May 2015
    Thurrock CON hold
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    @politicshome: Conservatives gain Southampton Itchen, a Labour seat since 1992. #GE2015 http://t.co/VeC0Vz0Mf9
  • Plato
    Plato Posts: 15,724
    Con hold Orpington

    Thurrock won by 400 votes
  • SimonStClare
    SimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Tim Aker - close, but no cigar.
  • Scrapheap_as_was
    Scrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    Jackie DP!!!!!!
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2015
    Less than a thousand votes between UKIP, Lab and Con in Thurrock.

    Con maj: 536.
  • dr_spyn
    dr_spyn Posts: 11,312
    ITV News ‏@itvnews 5s5 seconds ago
    Bookies are taking bets on @Ed_Miliband retiring by midnight #GE2015 http://www.itv.com/news/update/2015-05-08/bookies-place-odds-on-miliband-retiring-by-midnight/ …
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,724
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Zac Goldsmith majority up from 4000 to 23000!

    Not a good indicator for Vince...

    BUT BUT BUT what about all that non-dom nonsense :-)
  • trublue
    trublue Posts: 103
    antifrank said:

    This looks like a majority to me. Outside London, Labour have made no progress in England and Wales against the Conservatives so far.

    10/1 for a con majority on Befair now if you feel like swimming against the tide. Personally I think the exit poll will be closer to the final result than a majority. Still a very good result for the Tories.
  • Philip_Thompson
    Philip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Sean_F said:

    Philip_Thompson said:

    Clacton Tory GAIN in next election. That's a shockingly low vote for the late UKIP party.

    Don't get high on your own supply. UKIP have won millions of votes.
    As have the Greens and as the BNP did last time. Thankfully we decided to keep by two to one in a referendu, First Past The Post to give seats to the winners and not the fringes.
  • Sandpit
    Sandpit Posts: 56,045
    Thurrock Con hold.
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,077
    Lab nearly win Thurrock... nearly...
  • Purseybear
    Purseybear Posts: 766
    Awesome re. Thurrock.

    I'm going to win big on UKIP seats :)
  • AndreaParma_82
    AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Bradshaw wins Exeter
  • Slackbladder
    Slackbladder Posts: 9,800
    AndreaParma_82 said:

    Con hold Stockton South and Dudley South

    stockton is 7th on list
  • foxinsoxuk
    foxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Prodicus said:

    Thurrock CON hold

    UKIP 3rd
  • SthLondonNick
    SthLondonNick Posts: 26
    Enfield - Lab GAIN
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Scott_P said:

    @politicshome: Conservatives gain Southampton Itchen, a Labour seat since 1992. #GE2015 http://t.co/VeC0Vz0Mf9

    Damnit, my heart was Itchen for Rowena
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,608
    GET IN THURROCK
  • Tissue_Price
    Tissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    SimonStClare said:

    Tim Aker - close, but no cigar.

    Someone said that was in the bag for UKIP. Just goes to show.
  • Chameleon
    Chameleon Posts: 4,265
    Scott_P said:

    @politicshome: Conservatives gain Southampton Itchen, a Labour seat since 1992. #GE2015 http://t.co/VeC0Vz0Mf9

    Lab gains from Con = Con gains from Lab...
  • AndreaParma_82
    AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    edited May 2015
    Tories allegedly confident in Itchen
  • currystar
    currystar Posts: 1,171
    Eastleigh is my biggest ever win on a political bet . If the Tories win an outright majority I will be buying my daughter a new car
  • tlg86
    tlg86 Posts: 26,950
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Scott_P said:

    @politicshome: Conservatives gain Southampton Itchen, a Labour seat since 1992. #GE2015 http://t.co/VeC0Vz0Mf9

    Damnit, my heart was Itchen for Rowena
    Get in there! I've missed her on Sky News paper reviews.
  • Mortimer
    Mortimer Posts: 14,229
    Knew we'd get Itchen!
  • MikeL
    MikeL Posts: 7,809
    How did Con win Hendon against the Lab London gains?
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    @isaby: Tories now holding a string of key Labour targets like Stockton South, Hendon, Harrow East, Carlisle and Amber Valley...
  • JonCisBack
    JonCisBack Posts: 911
    BBC map has crashed. Yet again they are having a shocker vs Sky
  • alex.
    alex. Posts: 4,658
    It is clear from these results that UKIP votes have been coming from all other parties and none with clearly no bias against Conservatives.
  • AndreaParma_82
    AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Bradshaw + 8% Con unchanged.
  • KentRising
    KentRising Posts: 2,926
    Plato said:

    Con hold Orpington

    That's one Johnson in Parliament at least!
  • Dair
    Dair Posts: 6,108
    Lol

    Jackie Baillie wants Jim Murphy to stay as Scottish Labour leader.
  • Brom
    Brom Posts: 3,760
    Tissue_Price said:

    SimonStClare said:

    Tim Aker - close, but no cigar.

    Someone said that was in the bag for UKIP. Just goes to show.
    The fight for electoral reform begins tomorrow!
  • Purseybear
    Purseybear Posts: 766
    Southampton Itchen Yes!
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    @GuidoFawkes: CON hold in Stockton South
  • Floater
    Floater Posts: 14,207
    Cable does not look happy
  • Plato
    Plato Posts: 15,724
    Con hold Herefordshire S
  • currystar
    currystar Posts: 1,171
    Chameleon said:

    Scott_P said:

    @politicshome: Conservatives gain Southampton Itchen, a Labour seat since 1992. #GE2015 http://t.co/VeC0Vz0Mf9

    Lab gains from Con = Con gains from Lab...
    Not surprised . I saw no labour posters and the demographic had changed
  • RodCrosby
    RodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Stockton S maj up to 5000
  • AndreaParma_82
    AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Both Harrow East and Hendon has been comfortable majorities for Con
This discussion has been closed.

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