politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » GE 2015 – the view of the spread betting trader

dr_spyn said:

Wonder if BBC will alter their election guide photo set.

order-order.com/#_@/Yldl7D_F9UDVKg

Now that Guido highlights the pencil over Labour.

JohnO said:

Casino_Royale said:

Is Anthony King on tonight?

Doubt it. Isn't Peter Kellner the BBC psephologist these days?

Dadge said:

Tomorrow are politicians going to carry on pretending that they can run an effective government without a coalition? I suppose they said all that stuff about minority govt and confidence+supply because they were desperate, but surely someone is going to have to climb down? It's insanity to try to run the country for more than a month without a majority government of some kind. It would create endless waves of insecurity in organisations, businesses and the markets, as well as being a living hell for the politicians themselves. If a coalition is not possible there will surely have to be another election within the year.

Purseybear said:

isam said:

Brom said:

isam said:

Brom said:

isam said:

Ooer those lib dems look awfully close to Ukip in the last few polls!

At least if I lose my vote match bets I get to moan that I was clear for 18 months only to fall short in the final furlong... Who doesn't love a good hard luck story?

no chance. look how far ahead they are with panelbase and survation. The fact the libs havent been ahead of ukip in any polls in weeks plus the shy kipper idea should keep them 2 or 3% ahead.

@mikeK also

Well of course I hope you are right, but this is squeaky bum time!

I feel much more confident of my bets in Thurrock, Thanet and over 2.5 seats than beating the lib dems and getting 10%

isam said:

Brom said:

isam said:

Ooer those lib dems look awfully close to Ukip in the last few polls!

At least if I lose my vote match bets I get to moan that I was clear for 18 months only to fall short in the final furlong... Who doesn't love a good hard luck story?

no chance. look how far ahead they are with panelbase and survation. The fact the libs havent been ahead of ukip in any polls in weeks plus the shy kipper idea should keep them 2 or 3% ahead.

@mikeK also

Well of course I hope you are right, but this is squeaky bum time!

I feel much more confident of my bets in Thurrock, Thanet and over 2.5 seats than beating the lib dems and getting 10%

ye kipper of little faith! 12 or 13% nailed on. A significant achievement given both the media attacks and sidelining at the expense of the 3 'big parties'. I'm feeling strangely confident about Castle Point, but Thanet is the big one.

Spoke to two kipper campaign people in last 24 hours... They both said Thurrock is in the bag as is Thanet

I've been telling here in dag and rainham and 8/12 people so far have said Ukip (obv I haven't asked I am just taking numbers)

lmao. yeah yeah. every election we get this kinda garbage. usually from people who are in trouble.

lets wait and see.

AndyJS said:

Good morning. Weather here: cold, wet, dark.

Here are the targets for Con, Lab, LD, SNP:

https://t.co/NSanMdDNHm

Neil said:

I'm sorry, who are all these tweets from? It doesnt say!

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Tabman, quite. The psychological pressure on Miliband to claim victory is enormous.

On polls: what if they got the vote share right but the seat forecasts utterly wrong?

david_herdson said:

Philip_Thompson said:

david_herdson said:

Philip_Thompson said:

david_herdson said:

JohnO said:

Pong said:

I've just voted.

http://imgur.com/VJKtTND

If that vote is real then it will be void.

There's a clear mark of intent. I think it's more likely than not that it would be counted.

Surely its a clearly identifiable vote so would be void, plus the language battered wife etc - joking about domestic abuse on a ballot paper is surely like joking about bombs in the airport. Has to be a spoilt ballot surely.

There's no law against jokes in bad taste and as the comment doesn't run against the actual vote then I don't think it should be invalid for uncertainty.

As for being identifiable, it's only if the voter him- or herself is identifiable that would render the ballot invalid, which isn't the case here.

I thought the whole purpose of laws against identifiable votes were to prevent corruption - to stop people signing the votes a certain way and then being paid for that vote. If you can sign it with a text, what's to stop people using a certain unique password code and then being paid for that vote?

It may not be the case, but any text other than the vote should be a spoilt ballot. Since there's a significant proportion of spoilt ballots each year, I'd imagine one referencing criminal coercion would be.

If someone did use a codeword to identify themselves then that would be illegal as you suggest. However, I very much doubt that's the case here.

As for criminal coercion, I doubt it would be practically possible. For it to work, you'd need (at least) hundreds of such papers, which clearly would show up at the count and should make the returning officer and police suspicious. Furthermore, the corrupt party would then need to mark off each codeword so s/he knew which voters to pay out to, which might itself attract attention at the count!

JohnO said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

@guardian_clark: Watch this space for the final final ICM poll which I hope won't be too long coming, and provides one final twist @martinboon

Not a Labour lead????

Casino_Royale said:

JohnO said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

@guardian_clark: Watch this space for the final final ICM poll which I hope won't be too long coming, and provides one final twist @martinboon

Not a Labour lead????

Gawd. Don't. You could so easily be right.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Been a lot of talk about how rubbish the campaign have been, especially Tories. This reads like what the Tories campaign briefing notes should have said, not the Lyton Crosby WEIRD ED, LABOUR SNP memo.

http://www.sunnation.co.uk/voting-tory-was-right-for-the-economy-in-2010-and-its-right-in-2015-too/

Sandpit said:

I'm not going to link to it but Guido has a story about electoral practice in Birmingham which if true is deeply concerning in a "Tower Hamlets" fashion.

Fenster said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Been a lot of talk about how rubbish the campaign have been, especially Tories. This reads like what the Tories campaign briefing notes should have said, not the Lyton Crosby WEIRD ED, LABOUR SNP memo.

http://www.sunnation.co.uk/voting-tory-was-right-for-the-economy-in-2010-and-its-right-in-2015-too/

I would've run a far more positive campaign, and I would've banged on and on about the undeniable fact that good public services can only be achieved from a good economy.

The Tories are either too polite, too arrogant, too ignorant or too distanced from regular punters to realise how much that point needs to be hammered home.

Cameron tries, but even he seems too polite to be aggressively persuasive.

Nemtynakht said:

Can highly recommend Bunnahabhain whisky. It is from islay but is the only one which is not peaty. It has a seawater saltiness which is very moreish.

macisback said:

The heavens have opened here in Amber Valley seat, who will gain from that, we will see later.

Stereotomy said:

Fenster said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Been a lot of talk about how rubbish the campaign have been, especially Tories. This reads like what the Tories campaign briefing notes should have said, not the Lyton Crosby WEIRD ED, LABOUR SNP memo.

http://www.sunnation.co.uk/voting-tory-was-right-for-the-economy-in-2010-and-its-right-in-2015-too/

I would've run a far more positive campaign, and I would've banged on and on about the undeniable fact that good public services can only be achieved from a good economy.

The Tories are either too polite, too arrogant, too ignorant or too distanced from regular punters to realise how much that point needs to be hammered home.

Cameron tries, but even he seems too polite to be aggressively persuasive.

I'm not sure banging on about Ed being weird and the danger of letting those crazy Scots influence government could really be attributed to being "too polite"

Slackbladder said:

Tom Clark ‏@guardian_clark

Watch this space for the final final ICM poll which I hope won't be too long coming, and provides one final twist @martinboon

Cmon...can ICM reclaim the Gold Standard!!!

Millsy said:

I wonder if there's a small amount of complacency among Tories - just a random thought from speaking to one person in my office who said "ooh yeah Tories will get back in, they've done a good job considering the mess...."

MarqueeMark said:

Nemtynakht said:

kjohnw said:

Financier said:

Lord A's Regional Splits:

England only:
Cons: 35
LAB: 33
LD: 10
UKIP: 13
Gn: 7

SE:

Cons: 38
LAB: 30
LD: 11
UKIP: 10
GN: 9

Midlands:
Cons: 38
LAB: 29
LD: 9
UKIP: 14
GN: 8

Wales & SW:
Cons: 34
LAB: 27
LD: 13
UKIP: 12
GN: 7
PC: 6

North:
Cons: 28
LAB: 46
LD: 6
UKIP: 14
GN: 4

Scotland:
Cons: 11
LAB: 24
LD: 6
UKIP: 1
GN: 2
SNP: 54

If the cons are that far ahead in the midlands and SE & SW, could it be just that labour are hardening/piling up votes in safe northern seats and maybe at lot of LAB>UKIP switchers are coming home in safe labour seats? this certainly does not look like a uniform national swing

I commented as much yesterday. If you consider that the Sw Wales figures will have the Labour vote in Wales and then the cities in Sw, then the Tory vote is very strong.

One-party state numbers in the likes of Liverpool, Manchester, Newcastle....Parts of London. Elsewhere? Balanced on a knife-edge.

weejonnie said:

Stereotomy said:

Fenster said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Been a lot of talk about how rubbish the campaign have been, especially Tories. This reads like what the Tories campaign briefing notes should have said, not the Lyton Crosby WEIRD ED, LABOUR SNP memo.

http://www.sunnation.co.uk/voting-tory-was-right-for-the-economy-in-2010-and-its-right-in-2015-too/

I would've run a far more positive campaign, and I would've banged on and on about the undeniable fact that good public services can only be achieved from a good economy.

The Tories are either too polite, too arrogant, too ignorant or too distanced from regular punters to realise how much that point needs to be hammered home.

Cameron tries, but even he seems too polite to be aggressively persuasive.

I'm not sure banging on about Ed being weird and the danger of letting those crazy Scots influence government could really be attributed to being "too polite"

Had I been in control of the Tory campaign, I would have pledged that any reduction in interest payments due to the reduction of national debt would have gone directly to the NHS in addition to other commitments. That would have linked prosperity and extra services in the minds of the electorate.

Nemtynakht said:

Stereotomy said:

Fenster said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Been a lot of talk about how rubbish the campaign have been, especially Tories. This reads like what the Tories campaign briefing notes should have said, not the Lyton Crosby WEIRD ED, LABOUR SNP memo.

http://www.sunnation.co.uk/voting-tory-was-right-for-the-economy-in-2010-and-its-right-in-2015-too/

I would've run a far more positive campaign, and I would've banged on and on about the undeniable fact that good public services can only be achieved from a good economy.

The Tories are either too polite, too arrogant, too ignorant or too distanced from regular punters to realise how much that point needs to be hammered home.

snip

I'm not sure banging on about Ed being weird and the danger of letting those crazy Scots influence government could really be attributed to being "too polite"

The problem is that the Tories are detached in a lot of instances from people who rely on these services and could not pay / go privately the School or hospital let them down. If they did they would go on about good management of the economy means money for public services. The perception problem is that they will cut taxes and services rather than protect them. They haven't done enough of the blame management. As services were cut they needed to pin that on Labour, and then any reorganisation should have been to restructure services to reinvest. Both the Tories and lib dem have been bad at retail offer management.

weejonnie said:

Stereotomy said:

Fenster said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Been a lot of talk about how rubbish the campaign have been, especially Tories. This reads like what the Tories campaign briefing notes should have said, not the Lyton Crosby WEIRD ED, LABOUR SNP memo.

http://www.sunnation.co.uk/voting-tory-was-right-for-the-economy-in-2010-and-its-right-in-2015-too/

snip

I'm not sure banging on about Ed being weird and the danger of letting those crazy Scots influence government could really be attributed to being "too polite"

Had I been in control of the Tory campaign, I would have pledged that any reduction in interest payments due to the reduction of national debt would have gone directly to the NHS in addition to other commitments. That would have linked prosperity and extra services in the minds of the electorate.