politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » GE 2015 – the view of the spread betting trader
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£ trading at under 1.34 - twas 1.41 just a few weeks ago. I'd call it the Miliband effect. Back to 'staycations' for the Brits.
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I got my personal e-mail from Ed M this morning - have to admit that it read to me more like a concession e-mail than anything else. Lots of talk about whatever the outcome and thanks to everyone. It did not seem like a call for a final push over the line.Cyclefree said:
No - you will see that I have predicted that Labour will win handsomely, one of the few on here to do so. You will also know that I have indicated that I won't be voting Tory.Roger said:Cyclefree
"If so - very very wild off the wall guess here - might they announce that the UK will join the Euro??"
So you're going for the '45 minutes to save the pound' vote?
I was just speculating on what might be Labour's first major decision. The last Labour government introduced a bold measure, Ed Milliband has done something similar e.g. the energy policy announcement and I was wondering last night whether they might be doing so again and, if so, what that might be.
Whatever the economic consequences it might have some good political outcomes for him - or so he might think.
That may be me looking through my own biases (I think the Conservatives will get 315 seats and Labour <250) but a few other people have said that as well.
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looks like Labour are only contesting the town seats, out in the country there don't seen to be any candidates. That's bad for democracy., The Tories shouldn't get a free run.Plato said:Well that's @Jonathan's backyard!
SquareRoot said:Horsham
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Tonight we'll see just how far the Cons shot themselves in the foot by opposing AV.0
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Clearly and also those from the Commonwealth but not over 30 million Rumanians !!Polruan said:
Higher likelihood of entry for those with special and rare skills or experience?JackW said:
Too many perhaps ....MarqueeMark said:
Jack's ARSE has given refuge to many.....Scrapheap_as_was said:
I am clinging to it ....JackW said:
Absolutely not.MarqueeMark said:
Any ominous rumblings to cause concern that your ARSE may be in trouble, JackW?JackW said:Good morning ARSE lovers worldwide ....
My ARSE is looking especially resplendent this fine morning but also looking forward to a well earned sabbatical in warmer climes where the following phrase need not require any internal rationalization :
Ed Miliband Will Never Be Prime Minister
I may have to introduce an Australian points system for entry to my ARSE (copyright N Farage Esq)
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I, for one, would be protesting on the streets if we joined the Euro without a referendum.Cyclefree said:
Well, since he's against having a Euro referendum I don't suppose that last bit would worry him t hat much.Sandpit said:
He wouldn't dare do that, he would be eaten alive by all sides, including most of those who voted for him!Cyclefree said:
When Labour won in 1997 within 48 hours they announced - much to everyone's surprise - the independence of the Bank of England.
Might Labour do something similar?
If so - very very wild off the wall guess here - might they announce that the UK will join the Euro??
It would keep the Lib Dems and SNP on side, would drive the Tories completely batshit crazy and would make Milliband the darling of the Eurocrats.
He would also have to repeal the law that the current government passed, that such matters should be referred directly to the electorate.
He's likely - if he has the votes - to be more radical where he can then some may assume. He has said that he wants to reshape society rather than simply tinker with it. Joining the euro would do that, would put his main opponents off guard and would, in his view, solve the European question definitively.0 -
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB 39s40 seconds ago
Oxford's @StephenDFisher big bet is that LAB being over-stated in polls so CON 3% ahead.
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Yeah, right. Keep on believing that.Alistair said:
The economic crisis was over, it was about managing the recovery.JosiasJessop said:
There is a good chance that history will judge Cameron much better than Brown or Blair, at the very least. Holding together a coalition during the economic crisis was not easy. Blair had it easy with a large majority and will be stained by the wars, whilst Brown will be stained by the economic crash and Labour's tribal infighting, much of which he caused.Roger said:Richard Nabavi
Who knows? To be honest I've not given it much thought, since if, God forbid, we do end up with Ed Miliband in No 10, there will be much more important things to worry about than David Cameron.
In any case his place in history as one of the very best post-war PMs is already assured."
Have you ever thought about doing 'stand-up'?
Major's reputation seems to have been rehabilitated since he left power. Blair and Brown's have both plummeted. Time will tell which way Cameron's will go: Richard might well be correct.0 -
Getting Down Under the ARSE seems rather like something MPs might like to get up to!JackW said:
Too many perhaps ....MarqueeMark said:
Jack's ARSE has given refuge to many.....Scrapheap_as_was said:
I am clinging to it ....JackW said:
Absolutely not.MarqueeMark said:
Any ominous rumblings to cause concern that your ARSE may be in trouble, JackW?JackW said:Good morning ARSE lovers worldwide ....
My ARSE is looking especially resplendent this fine morning but also looking forward to a well earned sabbatical in warmer climes where the following phrase need not require any internal rationalization :
Ed Miliband Will Never Be Prime Minister
I may have to introduce an Australian points system for entry to my ARSE (copyright N Farage Esq)0 -
@Flightpathl
When I was active, we "postered" the roads to the polling station the night before, and removed them the day after the election.
In recent elections, the posters were put up, but not removed for weeks, so perhaps the local constabulary have had words with the agents?0 -
The FTSE 100 Index is down almost 60 points in early trading ...... perhaps sensing the mood.0
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LDs and glass tables springs horribly to mind...
foxinsoxuk said:
Getting Down Under the ARSE seems rather like something MPs might like to get up to!JackW said:
Too many perhaps ....MarqueeMark said:
Jack's ARSE has given refuge to many.....Scrapheap_as_was said:
I am clinging to it ....JackW said:
Absolutely not.MarqueeMark said:
Any ominous rumblings to cause concern that your ARSE may be in trouble, JackW?JackW said:Good morning ARSE lovers worldwide ....
My ARSE is looking especially resplendent this fine morning but also looking forward to a well earned sabbatical in warmer climes where the following phrase need not require any internal rationalization :
Ed Miliband Will Never Be Prime Minister
I may have to introduce an Australian points system for entry to my ARSE (copyright N Farage Esq)0 -
You think Bad Al is bad.. tim is going mental.. all the bile including Couuuuulson...Scrapheap_as_was said:Blimey - bad al is a machine gun of bile on twitter this morning. he is a lovely fella.
https://twitter.com/GOsborneGenius/with_replies
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Can I put your mind to rest.
A Labour government will not join the Euro. Period. 20 years down the line, maybe but not now or any time soon.
The architect of the 5 tests could be the next CoE. The 5 tests were created so that the answer would always be NO.Life_ina_market_town said:
One of the loaded spring guns left by the Coalition is the European Union Act 2011. Section 6(5)(e) provides that a decision to make the euro the currency of the United Kingdom must be approved by an Act of Parliament and a referendum. It should be noted however that the requirement for a referendum could be negated by a subsequent Act of Parliament. Furthermore, some academics have argued that this provision is inconsistent with EU law and is unenforceable in any event.Cyclefree said:Might Labour do something similar?
If so - very very wild off the wall guess here - might they announce that the UK will join the Euro??
It would keep the Lib Dems and SNP on side, would drive the Tories completely batshit crazy and would make Milliband the darling of the Eurocrats.
And on that note, off to vote and work.0 -
Morning all
Seems strange not to be doing the "graveyard shift" on Polling Day but those days are behind me (until I retire and then I imagine I'll be back !).
For those telling and especially those doing it for the first time, a few nuggets of wisdom from my many stints of the aforementioned:
1) Smile and be polite - people appreciate it, even your opponents. You aren't there to change people's minds but simply to record who has voted and the other party tellers (if there are any) are doing the same thing. If someone voting for your opponent chooses to spite you and ignore you, don't worry, you'll get the info you need from the opposing teller. if someone walks out and says nothing to anyone, there's nothing you can do.
2) The Presiding Officer is God and the Polling Station is his/her kingdom. If you are very lucky, you get a chair and a table in the entrance hall and a cup of tea/coffee and biscuits provided. If you are unlucky, you are outside standing in the rain being snarled at by a PO who thinks you have no right to be there. I always take some refreshments just in case.
3) Most important of all, DO NOT TALK POLITICS WITH THE OTHER TELLERS. They have their beliefs and you have yours. Find a subject of mutual interest and talk about that. Take them away from politics and 99% of tellers from other parties are decent, normal, interesting human beings.
4) If the opposition Agent or Candidate comes by, be pleasant to them. They are only doing their job as well. The rules on rosettes are variable in my experience but follow them whatever the local convention seems to be. If you are very lucky, a journo from the local rag might come by and you'll get your picture in the local paper.
Above all, enjoy it. I realise doing a 4-hour stint (as I've had to) is stretching the limits of enjoyment but there you go.
My only prediction is for London - I've put up LAB 45, CON 24, LD 4 and I'll stick with it. I'll be watching the 2005 CON/LD gains from Labour as my barometer seats.0 -
A majority, yes.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. N, you think there's a realistic prospect (greater than 7%) of one party achieving a minority?
I agree it's possible, but I do think it's unlikely.
I think anyone who stakes a lot of money on a hung parliament, hoping for a 7-8% return on their investment by tomorrow, is crazy.
Which of the two main parties looks like a case of 'tick here for a shambles'? Which option looks like a case of 'tick here to avoid a shambles'? Vote UKIP, LD or GRN and achieve what?
I'm a LAB man, by the way. I'm not saying this because I like it.
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I would love to believe it but struggle so to do. What late movement there has been has shown Labour slightly improving and ComRes said last night that undecideds were breaking 2-1 for Labour.dr_spyn said:Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB 39s40 seconds ago
Oxford's @StephenDFisher big bet is that LAB being over-stated in polls so CON 3% ahead.
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Have just voted at our Polling Station here in a lovely village in the Weald of Kent and hoping that our excellent MP Damien Green gets back! He is exactly my type of Conservative - would that the Party had many more like him and if we did we would not be in the poor state we are.
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Just done some back-of-a-fag pack calculations based on Ashcroft marginals. For those Tory seats quotes in the high 280s to be correct, I reckon the Tories would need to be winning both their own seats and gaining Lib Dem seats up to, and possibly a shade beyond, where Ashcroft was showing Lab or LD respectively 4% ahead. For instance, I make it that Ashcroft's latest marginal poll* had Lab ahead 10% or more in 15 Tory seats, 9% in 6, 8% in 1, 7% in 1, 6% in 6, 5% in 2, 4% in 5, 3% in 2, and 2% in 3. And I reckon Ashcroft had Con leading in 11 LD marginals, plus five more where Con were less than 5% behind LD.
*some of those "most recent" Ashcroft marginal surveys are very old now, though most of the older ones showed +10% Lab/LD leads and therefore he that's presumably why he didnt bother doing them again0 -
AV is a wretched wretched system which would have done nothing for the Conservatives at all. It isn't even proportional for goodness sake.not_on_fire said:Tonight we'll see just how far the Cons shot themselves in the foot by opposing AV.
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In 1997 though there was a conspiracy - Lab and Libdems had a tacit agreement between them over seats and both joined in the smears - thats where the LDs did so well. The more mature, in age and thought, of the LDs will remember how Ashdown was then royally shafted by Blair over the back room PR deal they struck. Having got a far bigger majority than expected Blair and Labour just shelved the PR report by Roy Jenkins.MarqueeMark said:
The SNP today looks like Labour in 1997. We Tories KNEW it was going to be bad. We just had a vain hope that it wouldn't be as horrendous as it turned out.Alistair said:I am defining the Jockalypse as SNP >=50 seats
If you believe the jockalypse cannot happen then Labour most seats is screaming value. Monstrous.
SLAB is as trashed today as the Tories were in 97. SNP to poll 50%+ and take at least 55 seats...
The broadcasters were in on it too - remember the man in a white suit?
But I wonder - how many LDs really DO remember Roy Jenkins and that PR deal until they are reminded?
In comparison with Blair the Tories have behaved nobly. The LDs however simply cannot recognise which side their bread is buttered.0 -
Go back to your constituencies and prepare for opposition ?
@patrickwintour: Former LD leader Lord Steel in any Libdem vote after election will oppose any further coalition - party should recharge batteries & values.0 -
Thanks for that - matches with blog I saw. Hoping for a nice day meeting allsorts.stodge said:
Morning all
Seems strange not to be doing the "graveyard shift" on Polling Day but those days are behind me (until I retire and then I imagine I'll be back !).
For those telling and especially those doing it for the first time, a few nuggets of wisdom from my many stints of the aforementioned:
1) Smile and be polite - people appreciate it, even your opponents. You aren't there to change people's minds but simply to record who has voted and the other party tellers (if there are any) are doing the same thing. If someone voting for your opponent chooses to spite you and ignore you, don't worry, you'll get the info you need from the opposing teller. if someone walks out and says nothing to anyone, there's nothing you can do.
2) The Presiding Officer is God and the Polling Station is his/her kingdom. If you are very lucky, you get a chair and a table in the entrance hall and a cup of tea/coffee and biscuits provided. If you are unlucky, you are outside standing in the rain being snarled at by a PO who thinks you have no right to be there. I always take some refreshments just in case.
3) Most important of all, DO NOT TALK POLITICS WITH THE OTHER TELLERS. They have their beliefs and you have yours. Find a subject of mutual interest and talk about that. Take them away from politics and 99% of tellers from other parties are decent, normal, interesting human beings.
4) If the opposition Agent or Candidate comes by, be pleasant to them. They are only doing their job as well. The rules on rosettes are variable in my experience but follow them whatever the local convention seems to be. If you are very lucky, a journo from the local rag might come by and you'll get your picture in the local paper.
Above all, enjoy it. I realise doing a 4-hour stint (as I've had to) is stretching the limits of enjoyment but there you go.
My only prediction is for London - I've put up LAB 45, CON 24, LD 4 and I'll stick with it. I'll be watching the 2005 CON/LD gains from Labour as my barometer seats.0 -
Got to polling station in Woolwich at 7am - queue out the door and moving slowly. Didnt have time to wait. Dont usually get there that early but was surprised.0
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Mr. N, ahem, glad one of us is awake
Got to say I think Labour will (sadly) exceed your expectations.0 -
Much better this morning, thank you. As high as 80% functional!Plato said:Are you feeling better - you mentioned being very under the weather last night?
How is Stockton South looking? I've no idea about the seat bar your posts
The seat is tight. Tories with a 332 majority and not seen as someone who pays much attention to large chunks of the seat. But he does have money (few activists) and in the long campaign we were bombarded by glossy leaflets.
Since the short campaign started its like his campaign stopped. Little in the way of communication and the coachload of Road Trip activists have gone somewhere else. Labour team is many, organised, confident. I'm also running for the borough council (as is my wife) so a busy few days....0 -
I wouldn't think he could deal with the civil unrest that would result from a decision like that, even if he somehow found the numbers to get it past the Commons and Lords!Cyclefree said:
Well, since he's against having a Euro referendum I don't suppose that last bit would worry him t hat much.Sandpit said:
He wouldn't dare do that, he would be eaten alive by all sides, including most of those who voted for him!Cyclefree said:
When Labour won in 1997 within 48 hours they announced - much to everyone's surprise - the independence of the Bank of England.
Might Labour do something similar?
If so - very very wild off the wall guess here - might they announce that the UK will join the Euro??
It would keep the Lib Dems and SNP on side, would drive the Tories completely batshit crazy and would make Milliband the darling of the Eurocrats.
He would also have to repeal the law that the current government passed, that such matters should be referred directly to the electorate.
He's likely - if he has the votes - to be more radical where he can then some may assume. He has said that he wants to reshape society rather than simply tinker with it. Joining the euro would do that, would put his main opponents off guard and would, in his view, solve the European question definitively.
I'm a mild mannered sort of chap, but if a guy who didn't get a majority came up with something like that after not mentioning it before the election, I'd be on the streets protesting.0 -
I love the idea that being in government causes your values to discharge.TheScreamingEagles said:Go back to your constituencies and prepare for opposition ?
@patrickwintour: Former LD leader Lord Steel in any Libdem vote after election will oppose any further coalition - party should recharge batteries & values.0 -
Did he look like Samuel Pepys ?Jonathan said:
Sussex. A retired gent was very angry, ranting at the staff for no discernible reason whatsoever. Going to be a looooong day for the staff.dyedwoolie said:
You in Soweto?!Jonathan said:Voted in the first batch. Queues and a small fracas. All before 7:10am.
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Mr. Sandpit, even if Miliband won a 100 seat majority it would be 100% unacceptable.
I think Miss Cyclefree is just being a minx.0 -
Absolutely, the economic crisis is still with us and could get a lot worse - it is currently being masked by extremely low interest rates (even spread to Australia) and propping up of banks and countries - but the balance of payments betray all illusions that the crisis is over.JosiasJessop said:
Yeah, right. Keep on believing that.Alistair said:
The economic crisis was over, it was about managing the recovery.JosiasJessop said:
There is a good chance that history will judge Cameron much better than Brown or Blair, at the very least. Holding together a coalition during the economic crisis was not easy. Blair had it easy with a large majority and will be stained by the wars, whilst Brown will be stained by the economic crash and Labour's tribal infighting, much of which he caused.Roger said:Richard Nabavi
Who knows? To be honest I've not given it much thought, since if, God forbid, we do end up with Ed Miliband in No 10, there will be much more important things to worry about than David Cameron.
In any case his place in history as one of the very best post-war PMs is already assured."
Have you ever thought about doing 'stand-up'?
Major's reputation seems to have been rehabilitated since he left power. Blair and Brown's have both plummeted. Time will tell which way Cameron's will go: Richard might well be correct.0 -
Interesting article here, though its analysis is still very much effectively through the UNS prism and doesn't in my opinion give sufficient weight to the changes since 2010 that the rise of UKIP and the SNP have brought. Still, food for thought.
http://www.ncpolitics.uk/2015/05/shy-tory-factor-2015.html/0 -
Stephen Fisher has been over-estimating the Tories all along, the polls don't support his view.
Ground game in Scotland indicates 9 -10 Labour holds, lots of quiet Labour voters, afraid of intimidation.
National seat breakdown could look like 284 Labour, 281 Tory.0 -
Were previous elections, was 2010 analysed to death in such a way? It seems like we are in butterfly wing-flapping territory where small changes in initial conditions can result in large swings once the general public/commentariat/PB have been on the case.John_N said:Nobody can say a bookie doesn't know how to make money, but the media comment has certainly assumed probability distributions that are ridiculously leptokurtic. Bettors have followed suit by staking so that bookies and betting exchanges are offering odds that imply the probability of a hung parliament is around 93%, which is far too high given the unknowns and their probable weight.
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Does he think any of that will change the opinion of his mighty 138 followers??SquareRoot said:
You think Bad Al is bad.. tim is going mental.. all the bile including Couuuuulson...Scrapheap_as_was said:Blimey - bad al is a machine gun of bile on twitter this morning. he is a lovely fella.
https://twitter.com/GOsborneGenius/with_replies0 -
I remember 1997, but it must have been in a parallel dimension because it differs so much from your recollections.Flightpathl said:
In 1997 though there was a conspiracy - Lab and Libdems had a tacit agreement between them over seats and both joined in the smears - thats where the LDs did so well. The more mature, in age and thought, of the LDs will remember how Ashdown was then royally shafted by Blair over the back room PR deal they struck. Having got a far bigger majority than expected Blair and Labour just shelved the PR report by Roy Jenkins.MarqueeMark said:
The SNP today looks like Labour in 1997. We Tories KNEW it was going to be bad. We just had a vain hope that it wouldn't be as horrendous as it turned out.Alistair said:I am defining the Jockalypse as SNP >=50 seats
If you believe the jockalypse cannot happen then Labour most seats is screaming value. Monstrous.
SLAB is as trashed today as the Tories were in 97. SNP to poll 50%+ and take at least 55 seats...
The broadcasters were in on it too - remember the man in a white suit?
But I wonder - how many LDs really DO remember Roy Jenkins and that PR deal until they are reminded?
In comparison with Blair the Tories have behaved nobly. The LDs however simply cannot recognise which side their bread is buttered.0 -
Dramatic weakening in Betfair's Labour Most Seats market up from 5.0 last night to 6.0 currently.0
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The votes are for him. But it will be counted as UKIP.Plato said:What happens to the votes for the Kipper chappy who has been suspended by UKIP? Do they still count with him as an Indy instead or are they void?
Casino_Royale said:
My polling station was busy at 7.25am this morning too, I had to queue and wait to get my ballot.Jonathan said:Voted in the first batch. Queues and a small fracas. All before 7:10am.
High turnout?0 -
Really?? I saw it in the 4-somethings earlier...peter_from_putney said:Dramatic weakening in Betfair's Labour Most Seats market up from 5.0 last night to 6.0 currently.
Bizzare... labour seems super value, unless theres a new poll floating about.0 -
Morning all. Today will be my 5th GE in 5 different seats in 5 different counties. Can anyone beat that?
1997 - Northavon
2001 - Exeter
2005 - Surrey SW
2010 - Reading East
2015 - Wantage
And I'm moving to Maidenhead tomorrow (although no guarantee will be living there in 2020)
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Hanretty Election Forecast
Con 281 Lab 266 SNP 51 LD 27 DUP 8 PC 4 SDLP 3 UKIP 1 GRN 1 OTH 80 -
Agreed on Damien Green.peterbuss said:
I would love to believe it but struggle so to do. What late movement there has been has shown Labour slightly improving and ComRes said last night that undecideds were breaking 2-1 for Labour.dr_spyn said:Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB 39s40 seconds ago
Oxford's @StephenDFisher big bet is that LAB being over-stated in polls so CON 3% ahead.
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Have just voted at our Polling Station here in a lovely village in the Weald of Kent and hoping that our excellent MP Damien Green gets back! He is exactly my type of Conservative - would that the Party had many more like him and if we did we would not be in the poor state we are.
Agreed on the Weald of Kent. Know Tenterden very well and was in High Halden at the weekend. Outstanding part of the country.0 -
It's a wretched system alright, but if UKIP are in the teens it most certainly would have helped the Conservatives.peterbuss said:
AV is a wretched wretched system which would have done nothing for the Conservatives at all. It isn't even proportional for goodness sake.not_on_fire said:Tonight we'll see just how far the Cons shot themselves in the foot by opposing AV.
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OT
See that Morrisons sales are down a further 2.9% in the three months to May. Not really surprised as when I went there yesterday about 5.30 pm (to get cakes and pastries for Thursday's coffee and cakes day) , few checkout were open and people were leaving their trolleys full and walking out in disgust. Also, as usual, where brands were very low in stock, none were being restocked, but plenty of own-label left. The new CEO needs to do some surprise store visits.0 -
I don't often agree with you but on both this and Damian Green I am 100% with you. Nick Clegg made a mistake on AV after the last election and I've said so on here many times. AV is not and never has been LD policy - it is, as you say, not proportional and in some respects worse than FPTP.peterbuss said:
AV is a wretched wretched system which would have done nothing for the Conservatives at all. It isn't even proportional for goodness sake.
I believe Nick thought he had to sweeten the deal of going into Coalition with the Conservatives by persuading the Party the Conservatives had moved on electoral reform. Perhaps he had been led to believe the Conservatives wouldn't oppose AV in which case he was being politically naïve. Either way, the AV defeat and the scale of it was a massive personal humiliation which, along with the tuition fees debacle, destroyed his personal and public credibility.
The only positive is that with AV off the radar, any prospective Coalition partner might have to start talking about STV or variations thereof.
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not_on_fire said:
Tonight we'll see just how far the Cona shot themselves in the foot by opposing AV.
Nonsense, any seat they lose to Labour due to UKIP splitting their vote would likely have been saved under AVpeterbuss said:
AV is a wretched wretched system which would have done nothing for the Conservatives at all. It isn't even proportional for goodness sake.not_on_fire said:Tonight we'll see just how far the Cons shot themselves in the foot by opposing AV.
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but surely falls under the "major change in our relationship with Europe" or whatever wording Lab used.Life_ina_market_town said:
One of the loaded spring guns left by the Coalition is the European Union Act 2011. Section 6(5)(e) provides that a decision to make the euro the currency of the United Kingdom must be approved by an Act of Parliament and a referendum. It should be noted however that the requirement for a referendum could be negated by a subsequent Act of Parliament. Furthermore, some academics have argued that this provision is inconsistent with EU law and is unenforceable in any event.Cyclefree said:Might Labour do something similar?
If so - very very wild off the wall guess here - might they announce that the UK will join the Euro??
It would keep the Lib Dems and SNP on side, would drive the Tories completely batshit crazy and would make Milliband the darling of the Eurocrats.
And on that note, off to vote and work.
But why are we speculating on this as it ain't gonna happen.
Day 1 announcement? Independent tax oversight or something to calm the righties' nerves.0 -
I agree with you, it would be totally unacceptable and the lovely Ms Cyclefree is trying to wind us up with silly ideas!Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Sandpit, even if Miliband won a 100 seat majority it would be 100% unacceptable.
I think Miss Cyclefree is just being a minx.
The problem is that I could just see Miliband trying to be like that, doing outright stupid things purely for political advantage, without a thought for what it would do to the country and the economy.
Mind made up, it's a cross in the blue box for me. Hopefully Dave can get to 300.0 -
Be interested to know your reasons *why* AV is a wretched, wretched system? Do you not think ours is a mature enough democracy?not_on_fire said:not_on_fire said:Tonight we'll see just how far the Cona shot themselves in the foot by opposing AV.
Nonsense, any seat they lose to Labour due to UKIP splitting their vote would likely have been saved under AVpeterbuss said:
AV is a wretched wretched system which would have done nothing for the Conservatives at all. It isn't even proportional for goodness sake.not_on_fire said:Tonight we'll see just how far the Cons shot themselves in the foot by opposing AV.
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4 in 4, just too young to vote in 1997 but that would have made it 5 in 5.GarethoftheVale2 said:Morning all. Today will be my 5th GE in 5 different seats in 5 different counties. Can anyone beat that?
1997 - Northavon
2001 - Exeter
2005 - Surrey SW
2010 - Reading East
2015 - Wantage
And I'm moving to Maidenhead tomorrow (although no guarantee will be living there in 2020)
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Yes because the whole point of a political party is to be out of power.TheScreamingEagles said:Go back to your constituencies and prepare for opposition ?
@patrickwintour: Former LD leader Lord Steel in any Libdem vote after election will oppose any further coalition - party should recharge batteries & values.0 -
Mr. Sandpit, I agree Miliband's a damned fool.
I think an announcement we'd just join the eurozone is beyond even him, however.0 -
Also - mild chuckle at all the polls seemingly being neck and neck ...0
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Stephen Fisher's Election day forecast is:
Con ....... 285
Lab ........ 262
LibDem ... 25
SNP ......... 530 -
A silly speculation.Cyclefree said:Good morning all.
....
When Labour won in 1997 within 48 hours they announced - much to everyone's surprise - the independence of the Bank of England.
Might Labour do something similar?
If so - very very wild off the wall guess here - might they announce that the UK will join the Euro??
It would keep the Lib Dems and SNP on side, would drive the Tories completely batshit crazy and would make Milliband the darling of the Eurocrats.
And on that note, off to vote and work.
Furthermore the sudden so-called 'independence' given to the BoE was not independence at all and driven by two things. Both cynical - so no surprise it was from the socialists.
1 - Before the exit from the ERM, this was a major plank of Labour's policy - they were cheerleaders for the ERM. I seem to recall Kinnock saying in 92 that the first thing they would do was to join the ERM.
When this turned out to be disastrous, Labour/Smith/Brown needed some alternative easy fix for the economy to cover their blushes.
2 - As new Chancellor Brown did not want a rival ie the BoE. So rather than give the bank independence he neutered it. So much so that the then Governor almost resigned on the spot.
Brown put a committee which he appointed in charge of setting interest rates - whereas before it was done between the Governor himself and the Chancellor. Brown also took away the banking regulation duties from the BoE and set up the FSA and a triparite system of regulation. We know how all that ended up.
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Miliband: "I’ve just voted in Doncaster. Today isn’t a day to vote simply for Labour but to vote for yourself & for your family http://pic.twitter.com/SyhjnkOcls "
Completely out of touch. He clearly has no idea that for millions of voters up and down the country, there isn't even anyone in the family on the ballot paper.0 -
This is not correct. The Fixed-term Parliaments Act 2011 removed the monarch's prerogative to dissolve parliament, and a PM whether caretaker or otherwise has no authority to do it before the 5 years are up.dyedwoolie said:If nobody can do it (form a government - my note), HMQ must appoint a caretaker PM (leader of the largest party) to exercise her prerogatives and dissolve parliament.
In any case, parliament can't be dissolved if it hasn't been opened. It is going to be interesting if nobody can form a government and there's neither a lost vote of confidence (triggering a new election if no-one wins one within a fortnight) or a two-thirds majority for an election. Neither of these things can happen unless parliament is opened.
Maybe we will get parliament opened with a 'My caretaker government hasn't got any legislation planned and will play it by ear' speech by the monarch?
Or maybe the monarch will be off sick that day?
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Clearly punters dont read this blogpeter_from_putney said:Dramatic weakening in Betfair's Labour Most Seats market up from 5.0 last night to 6.0 currently.
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Here's my list of constituencies voted in!
1992 - Southampton Itchen
1997 - Norfolk South
2001 - Witham
2005 - Mid Norfolk
2010 - Mid Norfolk
2015 - Broadland
Had I been eligible in 1987 it would have been Norwich South and had there been an election before 2013 North Norfolk. That concludes my movements through the country!0 -
We shall see what happens! Are you staying up all the way through to P1 in Spain at 9am?Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Sandpit, I agree Miliband's a damned fool.
I think an announcement we'd just join the eurozone is beyond even him, however.0 -
Here is a question I don't think has been discussed.
If the SNP have ~50 seats, will they vote Bercow for Speaker? Is he seen as part of their "anti-Tory majority"?0 -
Scotland has woken up David and now understands that both Labour and Tory are just interchangeable sacks of ordure. They are joined at the hip taking cosy turns each at milking the system. Hopefully both of them will be flushed down the toilet in Scotland at least and we will see real political parties emerge in the future.DavidL said:I have been saying since January at least that the markets are out of line with the polling and severely over estimating the Tory chances. If Sporting Index are carrying a substantial book based on their mid points I expect them to once again make a lot of money.
The final set of polls last night seemed to me to make the Conservatives being the largest party almost impossible and one simply has to apply the regional swings from Yougov to see how seats are going to fall.
I have frankly not understood Tory party strategy at all. They have spent their time chasing a couple of dozen Lib Dem seats and not done nearly enough to fight the 50-60 seats they are going to lose to Labour today. It seems bizarre to me, particularly when their only chance of maintaining power was to go into a second coalition with the same Lib Dem party diminished by the loss of the seats they are chasing.
Only the disaster in Scotland is going to stop Ed having an overall majority today. I think Labour most seats is inevitable despite this. It frankly depresses me that firstly in the referendum and now in the GE such a large percentage of our population put so little weight on fiscal sanity, sound government, sound money and a recognition that the State has to be paid for. But that's the way it is and today the Tories are going to suffer the consequences. In Scotland of course the people in their wisdom have determined that Labour is not lunatic enough and have found something even more unrealistic.
I expect Cameron to have resigned by this time tomorrow.
England will waken up one day as well.0 -
Does the fool not realise that there's only a few thousand at most who can vote for themselves or their family?edmundintokyo said:Miliband: "I’ve just voted in Doncaster. Today isn’t a day to vote simply for Labour but to vote for yourself & for your family http://pic.twitter.com/SyhjnkOcls "
Completely out of touch. He clearly has no idea that for millions of voters up and down the country, there isn't even anyone in the family on the ballot paper.0 -
Let the man "99% Tory absolute majority" say what he likes.roserees64 said:Why is Crosby stating Ipsos +5 for Tories, Ashcroft +2, old polls?
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Mr. Sandpit, improbable.
At the moment, I'm thinking of writing and having one eye on the electoral coverage. I'll see how things go, but I won't stay up all through the night.0 -
Mr. G, if they're joined at the hip they can't be interchangeable 0
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Mine would have been
2001; Bristol North-West
2005: Wells
2010: Wells
2015: East Hampshire0 -
Does the fool who wrote this realise that Miliband was not speaking literally ?Sandpit said:
Does the fool not realise that there's only a few thousand at most who can vote for themselves or their family?edmundintokyo said:Miliband: "I’ve just voted in Doncaster. Today isn’t a day to vote simply for Labour but to vote for yourself & for your family http://pic.twitter.com/SyhjnkOcls "
Completely out of touch. He clearly has no idea that for millions of voters up and down the country, there isn't even anyone in the family on the ballot paper.0 -
Does Miliband not realise the obvious comeback about voting and family there?edmundintokyo said:Miliband: "I’ve just voted in Doncaster. Today isn’t a day to vote simply for Labour but to vote for yourself & for your family http://pic.twitter.com/SyhjnkOcls "
Completely out of touch. He clearly has no idea that for millions of voters up and down the country, there isn't even anyone in the family on the ballot paper.0 -
That Ipsos is over a week old (the only non-May poll on there), came out when Lord A had a 6% Tory lead. If their final poll today is anything like a 5% Tory lead fair enough, otherwise you are just trying to con people.RodCrosby said:Con leads, final polls, IIUC
Ipsos +5
Ashcroft +2
Opinium +1
ComRes +1
TNS +1
Survation 0
YouGov 0
BMG 0
ICM 0
Populus 0
Panelbase -20 -
That's quite funny.edmundintokyo said:
I love the idea that being in government causes your values to discharge.TheScreamingEagles said:Go back to your constituencies and prepare for opposition ?
@patrickwintour: Former LD leader Lord Steel in any Libdem vote after election will oppose any further coalition - party should recharge batteries & values.0 -
With the final seats figures being put forward, it could well be that Cons+LDs = or < Lab + SNP. Is there a market on whether or not EdM will keep his promise not join with the SNP? Of course nothing has been mentioned about C & S with the SNP - is there a market for that?0
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MM
" Jack's ARSE has given refuge to many....."
Jack's ARSE the opiate of the masses ...........0 -
@Plato - He was on the ballot paper this morning, and still a candidate in name. I don't think any party suspension makes any difference to that.
In the very unlikely event he was elected I suspect there'd be some sort of legal challenge in the courts.0 -
When both Scotland and England are awake then the union is over. Then I suspect an enormous amount of buyer's remorse will set in for Scotland. You'll have your country but no money.malcolmg said:
England will waken up one day as well.DavidL said:I have been saying since January at least that the markets are out of line with the polling and severely over estimating the Tory chances. If Sporting Index are carrying a substantial book based on their mid points I expect them to once again make a lot of money.
The final set of polls last night seemed to me to make the Conservatives being the largest party almost impossible and one simply has to apply the regional swings from Yougov to see how seats are going to fall.
I have frankly not understood Tory party strategy at all. They have spent their time chasing a couple of dozen Lib Dem seats and not done nearly enough to fight the 50-60 seats they are going to lose to Labour today. It seems bizarre to me, particularly when their only chance of maintaining power was to go into a second coalition with the same Lib Dem party diminished by the loss of the seats they are chasing.
Only the disaster in Scotland is going to stop Ed having an overall majority today. I think Labour most seats is inevitable despite this. It frankly depresses me that firstly in the referendum and now in the GE such a large percentage of our population put so little weight on fiscal sanity, sound government, sound money and a recognition that the State has to be paid for. But that's the way it is and today the Tories are going to suffer the consequences. In Scotland of course the people in their wisdom have determined that Labour is not lunatic enough and have found something even more unrealistic.
I expect Cameron to have resigned by this time tomorrow.0 -
I'm much less concerned about the prospect of Ed Miliband becoming Prime Minister than some on here and while those of a Conservative disposition might be sizing up the comfy chair of Opposition, the fact is Ed has surpassed many expectations in this campaign.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Sandpit, I agree Miliband's a damned fool.
I think an announcement we'd just join the eurozone is beyond even him, however.
If you believed some of the guff posted on here, the Labour campaign has been a web of gaffes, blunders and ill-timed gimmicks and if that had had the impact some on here claim, Labour would be at 25% or less now.
My view is that Ed M is a better politician than David Cameron - that doesn't make him a better Prime Minister - and his campaigning and that of his Party appears to have been effective. As I said last night, I think the Conservatives hoped to stun the Labour heart and brain by some well-timed policy initiatives and direct assaults on Labour's past record.
However, instead of surgical strikes to the heart and brain, the Conservatives have hacked at limbs and often missed those. The Conservative campaign bet the farm on the reputation of a single individual who they believed is liked more than he really is and who wanted the job more than he really does.
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Labour Most Seats now 6.2 and rising ...... looks like that particular contest is as good as over.0
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I am not sure the co-op are any better. Tescos has its fingers burnt with is store expansion and land holding policy. M&S are not the everlasting power they once were. Etc...Financier said:OT
See that Morrisons sales are down a further 2.9% in the three months to May. Not really surprised as when I went there yesterday about 5.30 pm (to get cakes and pastries for Thursday's coffee and cakes day) , few checkout were open and people were leaving their trolleys full and walking out in disgust. Also, as usual, where brands were very low in stock, none were being restocked, but plenty of own-label left. The new CEO needs to do some surprise store visits.
All of which just shows that nothing is 'set in stone'.0 -
I'm
1987 Croydon Central
1992 Mid Sussex
1997 Mid Sussex
2001 Wealden
2005 Wealden
2010 Wealden
2015 EastbourneSlackbladder said:Mine would have been
2001; Bristol North-West
2005: Wells
2010: Wells
2015: East Hampshire0 -
Those PBers who support the absolutely dire STV form of election should have their genitalia placed in a vice for the average time it takes for a STV count to be completed and then face permanent exile to ConHome to join others like minded single cell political detritus.stodge said:
The only positive is that with AV off the radar, any prospective Coalition partner might have to start talking about STV or variations thereof.peterbuss said:
AV is a wretched wretched system which would have done nothing for the Conservatives at all. It isn't even proportional for goodness sake.
No offence ....
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Nothing about "hard working people". Tut, tut!david_herdson said:
Does Miliband not realise the obvious comeback about voting and family there?edmundintokyo said:Miliband: "I’ve just voted in Doncaster. Today isn’t a day to vote simply for Labour but to vote for yourself & for your family http://pic.twitter.com/SyhjnkOcls "
Completely out of touch. He clearly has no idea that for millions of voters up and down the country, there isn't even anyone in the family on the ballot paper.0 -
2001: BathPlato said:I'm
1987 Croydon Central
1992 Mid Sussex
1997 Mid Sussex
2001 Wealden
2005 Wealden
2010 Wealden
2015 EastbourneSlackbladder said:Mine would have been
2001; Bristol North-West
2005: Wells
2010: Wells
2015: East Hampshire
2005: Coventry South
2010: Sheffield Central
2015: Derbyshire NE0 -
Mr. Stodge, it was a reasonable campaign by Labour.
Blair was a great campaigner. To campaign and to govern are very different things, however, and for governance we ought to look at how Miliband buggered up energy when he was the Cabinet Minister for Appeasing Pete Postlethwaite.0 -
Ashcroft? Final?0
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I detect a late swingback to Labour in Scotland which should see their seats there in double figures and overall make them a cert on the most seats market.0
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To join the Euro right now would be akin to jumping from a rescue ship into a sinking dinghy.0
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Too gross at this time of morningJackW said:
Too many perhaps ....MarqueeMark said:
Jack's ARSE has given refuge to many.....Scrapheap_as_was said:
I am clinging to it ....JackW said:
Absolutely not.MarqueeMark said:
Any ominous rumblings to cause concern that your ARSE may be in trouble, JackW?JackW said:Good morning ARSE lovers worldwide ....
My ARSE is looking especially resplendent this fine morning but also looking forward to a well earned sabbatical in warmer climes where the following phrase need not require any internal rationalization :
Ed Miliband Will Never Be Prime Minister
I may have to introduce an Australian points system for entry to my ARSE (copyright N Farage Esq)0 -
No he's not - he said IIUC and was correct at the time he posted. Your nerves are showing?OllyT said:
That Ipsos is over a week old (the only non-May poll on there), came out when Lord A had a 6% Tory lead. If their final poll today is anything like a 5% Tory lead fair enough, otherwise you are just trying to con people.RodCrosby said:Con leads, final polls, IIUC
Ipsos +5
Ashcroft +2
Opinium +1
ComRes +1
TNS +1
Survation 0
YouGov 0
BMG 0
ICM 0
Populus 0
Panelbase -2 0 -
For many members or supporters of the Lib Dems (or former ones), that was precisely the purpose of that party: to be a 'nice' opposition and provide an alternative to the nasty and/or incompetent parties of government. Clearly the flaw in that purpose was that were it electorally successful it would inevitably undermine first the conditions necessary to bring it about (being in opposition) and then the rationale itself. But as long as the self-destruct button could be avoided, they ran with it and left the long term to take care of itself.TOPPING said:
Yes because the whole point of a political party is to be out of power.TheScreamingEagles said:Go back to your constituencies and prepare for opposition ?
@patrickwintour: Former LD leader Lord Steel in any Libdem vote after election will oppose any further coalition - party should recharge batteries & values.
What the purpose of the Lib Dems is now, goodness only knows.0 -
Unless Labour do better than expected in Scotland they won't get most seats, if the East Midlands is replicated elsewhere the swing in support to Labour in the tight marginals is little, or could be nothing in many, much depends on the size of the final UKIP vote.DavidL said:
I agree in respect of the SNP. It won't stop Labour getting most seats though, just a majority.Alistair said:I am defining the Jockalypse as SNP >=50 seats
If you believe the jockalypse cannot happen then Labour most seats is screaming value. Monstrous.
Labour are frantically everywhere in Amber Valley yesterday, I bet no much work got done in local government, that is seat target 11 and Mills expects to hold it, not certain he will but it will be close, very close.
If Eddie comes out the wrong side in enough super tight marginals like Amber Valley, he might end up not much further forward in seats than Brown.
In my opinion a second election is highly likely. Conservatives 15 to 25 seats ahead but nobody will do enough to form a credible government, Burnham the Union puppet can say all he likes but Eddie will have to get most seats or very close to that to become PM.0 -
This is my first election in which I have retained my seat!dyedwoolie said:Here's my list of constituencies voted in!
1992 - Southampton Itchen
1997 - Norfolk South
2001 - Witham
2005 - Mid Norfolk
2010 - Mid Norfolk
2015 - Broadland
Had I been eligible in 1987 it would have been Norwich South and had there been an election before 2013 North Norfolk. That concludes my movements through the country!
2001 - Oxford West & Abingdon
2005 - Ealing Acton & Shepherd's Bush
2010 - Burton
2015 - Burton0 -
Deadlockpeter_from_putney said:Stephen Fisher's Election day forecast is:
Con ....... 285
Lab ........ 262
LibDem ... 25
SNP ......... 530 -
40/1 on most Scottish seats with PP. It would take a lot of shy No voters to be shy SLAB, and maybe some tactical voting.PantherDave said:I detect a late swingback to Labour in Scotland which should see their seats there in double figures and overall make them a cert on the most seats market.
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Alex Salmond for Speaker!Scott_P said:Here is a question I don't think has been discussed.
If the SNP have ~50 seats, will they vote Bercow for Speaker? Is he seen as part of their "anti-Tory majority"?0 -
Likeedmundintokyo said:Miliband: "I’ve just voted in Doncaster. Today isn’t a day to vote simply for Labour but to vote for yourself & for your family http://pic.twitter.com/SyhjnkOcls "
Completely out of touch. He clearly has no idea that for millions of voters up and down the country, there isn't even anyone in the family on the ballot paper. 0 -
True, although (1) UKIP take about 40% of their vote from the Tories and 20% from Labour so if they polled 4000 votes, chances are it'd only make a difference if the majority's under 800; and (2), Labour would gain from transfers from the Greens, Plaid and the SNP.not_on_fire said:not_on_fire said:Tonight we'll see just how far the Cona shot themselves in the foot by opposing AV.
Nonsense, any seat they lose to Labour due to UKIP splitting their vote would likely have been saved under AVpeterbuss said:
AV is a wretched wretched system which would have done nothing for the Conservatives at all. It isn't even proportional for goodness sake.not_on_fire said:Tonight we'll see just how far the Cons shot themselves in the foot by opposing AV.
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EDM as PM worries me a lot - he is a theorist and experimenter and a very short term thinker and a worse negotiator. Also he is devoid of good and economically sound people among those on his front bench. Chukka, EdB and others are all hopeless. Liz Kendall would be one of the best but he would not promote her to CoE.stodge said:
I'm much less concerned about the prospect of Ed Miliband becoming Prime Minister than some on here and while those of a Conservative disposition might be sizing up the comfy chair of Opposition, the fact is Ed has surpassed many expectations in this campaign.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Sandpit, I agree Miliband's a damned fool.
I think an announcement we'd just join the eurozone is beyond even him, however.
If you believed some of the guff posted on here, the Labour campaign has been a web of gaffes, blunders and ill-timed gimmicks and if that had had the impact some on here claim, Labour would be at 25% or less now.
My view is that Ed M is a better politician than David Cameron - that doesn't make him a better Prime Minister - and his campaigning and that of his Party appears to have been effective. As I said last night, I think the Conservatives hoped to stun the Labour heart and brain by some well-timed policy initiatives and direct assaults on Labour's past record.
However, instead of surgical strikes to the heart and brain, the Conservatives have hacked at limbs and often missed those. The Conservative campaign bet the farm on the reputation of a single individual who they believed is liked more than he really is and who wanted the job more than he really does.0 -
Really? In that case why don't you hurry off to Betfair and take their 6.0 on Labour Most Seats?PantherDave said:I detect a late swingback to Labour in Scotland which should see their seats there in double figures and overall make them a cert on the most seats market.
Oh, and by the way, Prof Stephen Fisher has the SNP winning 53 of the 59 seats up for grabs in Scotland.0 -
Scotland has woken up David and now understands that both Labour and Tory are just interchangeable sacks of ordure. They are joined at the hip taking cosy turns each at milking the system. Hopefully both of them will be flushed down the toilet in Scotland at least and we will see real political parties emerge in the future. England will waken up one day as well.
If Labour and the Tories are just interchangeable sacks of ordure, the electorate has surely realized that the LibDems are squeezed right between two cheeks of the same posterior. And Nick Clegg's assertion that he wants to be "the brain" of a labour-led coalition or "the heart" of a conservative-led coalition is another hot air biscuit emanating from that rectus.0
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