politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » GE 2015 – the view of the spread betting trader

NickPalmer said:

Opinium just polled me on a post-voting survey - who did you vote for and why, and what's a legitimate government.

Did you answer enigmatically and say 'I am"' that's what I'd have done!

philiph said:

Plato said:

I'm telling for the first time today - any advice?

Wear a smile

and nothing else...

Patrick said:

Casino_Royale said:

Alanbrooke said:

JosiasJessop said:

Roger said:

Richard Nabavi

Who knows? To be honest I've not given it much thought, since if, God forbid, we do end up with Ed Miliband in No 10, there will be much more important things to worry about than David Cameron.

In any case his place in history as one of the very best post-war PMs is already assured."

Have you ever thought about doing 'stand-up'?

There is a good chance that history will judge Cameron much better than Brown or Blair, at the very least. Holding together a coalition during the economic crisis was not easy. Blair had it easy with a large majority and will be stained by the wars, whilst Brown will be stained by the economic crash and Labour's tribal infighting, much of which he caused.

Major's reputation seems to have been rehabilitated since he left power. Blair and Brown's have both plummeted. Time will tell which way Cameron's will go: Richard might well be correct.

hmmm

I think Cameron will be judged by his own benchmark that he'd make a pretty good PM, whereas he's been pretty average.

Cameron always strikes me as someone who has underachieved his potential.

It's the politics he's not very good at. The 2010 election campaign, the 2015 campaign, the management of his own party, his own MPs, the positioning within the EU, selling his mission statement to the general public and triangulating his policy positions to try and demonstrate modernisation, and curry the most votes.

That's why he'll lose. In pure administrative terms, the competence of this government has been quite good - and much better than Labour - particularly on jobs, tax, economy, infrastructure, science, pensions, welfare and education reform.

Success in politics covers two dimensions:
1. The retail side. Getting elected, managing people, aligning factions, driving belief - basically the whole art of shaping opinion and putting yourself in a position to be able to deliver on your beliefs (assuming you have any in the first place); and
2. The managerial side. Delivering well and competently when in power. This means making the country a better place. It does not necessarily mean being able to force through a ruinous agenda.

Blair (and the Labour party generally) excel at 1. But suck harder than the vacuum of deep space at 2.

Dave (and the Tory party generally) are really very good at 2. But suck way more than is acceptable at 1.

Thus Blair and Dave are examples of potentially great but in fact deeply flawed politicians. The true political greats have strength in both dimensions.

Depends what you mean by "making the country a better place" among other things.

Well, as the army of voters march to the voting booths, the pollsters tell us a quarter of them are making their mind up - right now....

Tory 41%, Labour 26% anybody?

I presume MORI, The Good Lord and ICM are late because they are trying to work out how the results can be that bad for the blues

Plato said:

To paraphrase - QE2 would deliver Queen's Speech, even if it could be overturned the following week if the Tories failed to get enough backing from smaller parties.

It's a change to how they normally do this stuff apparently.

Sandpit said:

Can anyone with Times access summarise their front page story
"Queen to Take Control of Election Aftermath"?

I though she was staying as far away from the mess as possible, until the politicians had decided to behave like adults and tell her the outcome?

Quite the opposite. She will NOT deliver a QS unless it's passage is secure via coalition, s and c or agreement to abstain

Jonathan said:

Voted in the first batch. Queues and a small fracas. All before 7:10am.

You in Soweto?!

So the polls released today will actually have been done after the bank holiday?

dyedwoolie said:

Jonathan said:

Voted in the first batch. Queues and a small fracas. All before 7:10am.

You in Soweto?!

Sussex. A retired gent was very angry, ranting at the staff for no discernible reason whatsoever. Going to be a looooong day for the staff.

I am now leaving this place to go to a place of electioning to cast my ballot. I shall pick up some tabs and return to report on turnout in Broadland at this unholy hour.

FalseFlag said:

JosiasJessop said:

FalseFlag said:

JosiasJessop said:

Roger said:

Richard Nabavi

Who knows? To be honest I've not given it much thought, since if, God forbid, we do end up with Ed Miliband in No 10, there will be much more important things to worry about than David Cameron.

In any case his place in history as one of the very best post-war PMs is already assured."

Have you ever thought about doing 'stand-up'?

There is a good chance that history will judge Cameron much better than Brown or Blair, at the very least. Holding together a coalition during the economic crisis was not easy. Blair had it easy with a large majority and will be stained by the wars, whilst Brown will be stained by the economic crash and Labour's tribal infighting, much of which he caused.

Major's reputation seems to have been rehabilitated since he left power. Blair and Brown's have both plummeted. Time will tell which way Cameron's will go: Richard might well be correct.

I can't imagine his foreign policy as being regarded as anything but a complete disaster. Let's hope he resigns sooner rather than later but I doubt he has the integrity.

Yes, he did not follow Putin's every whim.

I can see why you might be upset about that.

Blair mkII, we all know whose orders he follows and it isn't the British interest. Don't like his obvious failings being highlighted, the destruction in the Middle East and North Africa are consequences my generation will have to live with for decades.

Here endeth the lecture from Russia.

Dadge said:

DavidL said:

I have been saying since January at least that the markets are out of line with the polling and severely over estimating the Tory chances. If Sporting Index are carrying a substantial book based on their mid points I expect them to once again make a lot of money.

The final set of polls last night seemed to me to make the Conservatives being the largest party almost impossible and one simply has to apply the regional swings from Yougov to see how seats are going to fall.

...

I expect Cameron to have resigned by this time tomorrow.

But, but... How difficult is it to imagine 2010 in reverse? Then it was Labour incumbents who held on - this time it could be Tory incumbents who hold on. In 2010 the forecast was that 30% would give Labour less than 230 seats - they got 258. This time 34/35% might give the Tories 300 seats.

Take a look at these 17 seats. They're the difference between Labour getting 262 seats (losing) and getting 279 seats (winning). How confident are you that they will all fall? Brighton Kemptown, Pudsey, Northampton N, Halesowen, Bury N, Wirral W, Chester, Croydon C, Keighley, Cannock, Harrow E, Ealing C, Rossendale, Peterborough, Milton Keynes S, S Ribble, Finchley.

The swings are too large. The tories needed to be at least 5% ahead in the polls to keep the swing down to something they could cope with. But the polls are basically showing support level. I still expect the tories to get the most votes but it is going to be far too close.

Plato said:

Is there any news on a back-up PB in case Vanilla falls over under the F5s? We had another one that worked really well last time.

It seemed to be struggling a bit last night....

Morning PB.

Beautiful sunny morning here in London. The kind to make even the most apathetic mythical Labour dependent tear themselves away their 55" taxpayer funded 3D OLED TV and bother voting.

[I wish I believed it]

Morning, wet and windy here. Was first in to my polling station who were still getting ready! Also had the Opinium poll on how and why voted.

Scott_P said:

dyedwoolie said:

Has she gone mad?! Russian roulette with the constitutional make up of the nation.

Whitehall officials feared that the decision to stay away would in itself be a political act, since the Queen would effectively be prejudging the outcome of the vote by MPs. It would also break with precedent. In January 1924, George?V gave a King’s Speech shortly before the government was defeated.

I dare say this is correct in theory, but in 2015 there's no way Cameron and Miliband will do this to HMQ.

Why is Crosby stating Ipsos +5 for Tories, Ashcroft +2, old polls?

tradition breaker...

where's hugh ferbie-withastall on his bike?

Financier said:

Morning, wet and windy here. Was first in to my polling station who were still getting ready! Also had the Opinium poll on how and why voted.

So are our polls being skewed by an over representation of up with the lark PBers?

As my voting pattern is inevitably go at about 2000 and have a pint afterwards it's no wonder I never get exit polled

Has the Mail told readers where Mrs Miliband bought her lovely pink twin set from?

https://twitter.com/itvnews/status/596204238939783168

Plato said:

To paraphrase - QE2 would deliver Queen's Speech, even if it could be overturned the following week if the Tories failed to get enough backing from smaller parties.

It's a change to how they normally do this stuff apparently.

Sandpit said:

Can anyone with Times access summarise their front page story
"Queen to Take Control of Election Aftermath"?

I though she was staying as far away from the mess as possible, until the politicians had decided to behave like adults and tell her the outcome?

Wow, that's something of a change to what was expected. So basically, if Cons are largest party and there's no obvious coalition of the Left, expect Dave to dare everyone to vote down the Queen's Speech!

Exciting times ahead

Monksfield said:

Financier said:

Morning, wet and windy here. Was first in to my polling station who were still getting ready! Also had the Opinium poll on how and why voted.

So are our polls being skewed by an over representation of up with the lark PBers?

As my voting pattern is inevitably go at about 2000 and have a pint afterwards it's no wonder I never get exit polled

There were no tellers present or even a police presence. Rush will come about 10am after milking and wives having tidied up their farmer husbands.

Pulpstar said:

MarqueeMark said:

Well, as the army of voters march to the voting booths, the pollsters tell us a quarter of them are making their mind up - right now....

Tory 41%, Labour 26% anybody?

Doubt that in Torbay

I'd settle for that tho!

A crisp sunny morning in leafy north Hertfordshire.

I'm promised some calls later in the day and anything tasty, non actionable or barely interesting I will endeavour to pass along.

Good luck to all PB candidates and party workers today on what will I'm sure prove to a long and eventful 24 hours.

Good morning all.

Best wishes to Nick Palmer and all others involved in today's events. I hope the day brings you whatever you desire and, if it doesn't, that you are not too downhearted.

I have no more idea than anyone else what the outcome will be but as a wild guess will go for

Labour: 300,
UKIP: 2,
Lib Dems: 25,
Northern Ireland: 18,
Others:3,
Speaker: 1,
SNP: 40 and
Cons: 259

When Labour won in 1997 within 48 hours they announced - much to everyone's surprise - the independence of the Bank of England.

Might Labour do something similar?

If so - very very wild off the wall guess here - might they announce that the UK will join the Euro??

It would keep the Lib Dems and SNP on side, would drive the Tories completely batshit crazy and would make Milliband the darling of the Eurocrats.

And on that note, off to vote and work.

MarqueeMark said:

JackW said:

Good morning ARSE lovers worldwide ....

Any ominous rumblings to cause concern that your ARSE may be in trouble, JackW?

My ARSE has been I'm trouble since yesterday lunchtime. Hoping its now behaving itself so I can pound the streets of Stockton South as planned

Cyclefree said:

Good morning all.

Best wishes to Nick Palmer and all others involved in today's events. I hope the day brings you whatever you desire and, if it doesn't, that you are not too downhearted.

I have no more idea than anyone else what the outcome will be but as a wild guess will go for

Labour: 300,
UKIP: 2,
Lib Dems: 25,
Northern Ireland: 18,
Others:3,
Speaker: 1,
SNP: 40 and
Cons: 259

When Labour won in 1997 within 48 hours they announced - much to everyone's surprise - the independence of the Bank of England.

Might Labour do something similar?

If so - very very wild off the wall guess here - might they announce that the UK will join the Euro??

It would keep the Lib Dems and SNP on side, would drive the Tories completely batshit crazy and would make Milliband the darling of the Eurocrats.

And on that note, off to vote and work.

The police would have to be busy, taking the shotguns off every Kipper with a licence.....

Vote cast in Broadland. Turnout steady, fun playing guess the allegiance with cute girl and crusty old duffers. Green to win, or at least chalk one up :-)
Local election disappointing - pick 2 from 2 Tory, 2 lib and one kipper. great choice, thanks

Cyclefree said:

Good morning all.

Best wishes to Nick Palmer and all others involved in today's events. I hope the day brings you whatever you desire and, if it doesn't, that you are not too downhearted.

I have no more idea than anyone else what the outcome will be but as a wild guess will go for

Labour: 300,
UKIP: 2,
Lib Dems: 25,
Northern Ireland: 18,
Others:3,
Speaker: 1,
SNP: 40 and
Cons: 259

When Labour won in 1997 within 48 hours they announced - much to everyone's surprise - the independence of the Bank of England.

Might Labour do something similar?

If so - very very wild off the wall guess here - might they announce that the UK will join the Euro??

It would keep the Lib Dems and SNP on side, would drive the Tories completely batshit crazy and would make Milliband the darling of the Eurocrats.

And on that note, off to vote and work.

No chance.

More likely they will toughen up the OBR to give them more credibility for their financial planning

JosiasJessop said:

Roger said:

Richard Nabavi

Who knows? To be honest I've not given it much thought, since if, God forbid, we do end up with Ed Miliband in No 10, there will be much more important things to worry about than David Cameron.

In any case his place in history as one of the very best post-war PMs is already assured."

Have you ever thought about doing 'stand-up'?

There is a good chance that history will judge Cameron much better than Brown or Blair, at the very least. Holding together a coalition during the economic crisis was not easy. Blair had it easy with a large majority and will be stained by the wars, whilst Brown will be stained by the economic crash and Labour's tribal infighting, much of which he caused.

Major's reputation seems to have been rehabilitated since he left power. Blair and Brown's have both plummeted. Time will tell which way Cameron's will go: Richard might well be correct.

The economic crisis was over, it was about managing the recovery.

antifrank said:

I believe that I was the first person to note publicly that the upcoming election could cause difficulties for the Queen:

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2015/03/10/antifrank-guest-slot-how-the-monarchy-might-suffer-in-the-post-election-scramble/

I'm quite proud of that.

This will go down in history as the Antifrank election. Beware of sounding too smug :-)

Cyclefree said:

When Labour won in 1997 within 48 hours they announced - much to everyone's surprise - the independence of the Bank of England.

Might Labour do something similar?

If so - very very wild off the wall guess here - might they announce that the UK will join the Euro??

It would keep the Lib Dems and SNP on side, would drive the Tories completely batshit crazy and would make Milliband the darling of the Eurocrats.

He wouldn't dare do that, he would be eaten alive by all sides, including most of those who voted for him!

He would also have to repeal the law that the current government passed, that such matters should be referred directly to the electorate.

Plato said:

https://twitter.com/ElectionsEtc/status/596208170512580608

I'd take that.

In reality, though, the gap will be a little wider.

Alistair said:

I am defining the Jockalypse as SNP >=50 seats

If you believe the jockalypse cannot happen then Labour most seats is screaming value. Monstrous.

The SNP today looks like Labour in 1997. We Tories KNEW it was going to be bad. We just had a vain hope that it wouldn't be as horrendous as it turned out.

SLAB is as trashed today as the Tories were in 97. SNP to poll 50%+ and take at least 55 seats...

Casino_Royale said:

Jonathan said:

Voted in the first batch. Queues and a small fracas. All before 7:10am.

My polling station was busy at 7.25am this morning too, I had to queue and wait to get my ballot.

High turnout?

I think it was an extreme example but during the referendum the percentage that had voted did not change at all in Dundee between 12 and 8 and barely after that. I think people might be getting into the habit of voting early or using a postal vote.

dyedwoolie said:

I presume MORI, The Good Lord and ICM are late because they are trying to work out how the results can be that bad for the blues

I dont think there is any requirement to publish before 7.00. But after that Broadcasters cannot report the results. MORI have usually reported mid morning on election day for first edition of Evening Standard.

Cyclefree

"If so - very very wild off the wall guess here - might they announce that the UK will join the Euro??"

So you're going for the '45 minutes to save the pound' vote?

@guyadams: Just 24 hours to go until the authorities in Tower Hamlets begin their first disputed recount

Scrapheap_as_was said:

JackW said:

MarqueeMark said:

JackW said:

Good morning ARSE lovers worldwide ....

Any ominous rumblings to cause concern that your ARSE may be in trouble, JackW?

Absolutely not.

My ARSE is looking especially resplendent this fine morning but also looking forward to a well earned sabbatical in warmer climes where the following phrase need not require any internal rationalization :

Ed Miliband Will Never Be Prime Minister

I am clinging to it ....

Jack's ARSE has given refuge to many.....

Mr. N, you think there's a realistic prospect (greater than 7%) of one party achieving a minority?

I agree it's possible, but I do think it's unlikely.

Horsham

Roger said:

Cyclefree

"If so - very very wild off the wall guess here - might they announce that the UK will join the Euro??"

So you're going for the '45 minutes to save the pound' vote?

No - you will see that I have predicted that Labour will win handsomely, one of the few on here to do so. You will also know that I have indicated that I won't be voting Tory.

I was just speculating on what might be Labour's first major decision. The last Labour government introduced a bold measure, Ed Milliband has done something similar e.g. the energy policy announcement and I was wondering last night whether they might be doing so again and, if so, what that might be.

Whatever the economic consequences it might have some good political outcomes for him - or so he might think.

MarqueeMark said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

JackW said:

MarqueeMark said:

JackW said:

Good morning ARSE lovers worldwide ....

Any ominous rumblings to cause concern that your ARSE may be in trouble, JackW?

Absolutely not.

My ARSE is looking especially resplendent this fine morning but also looking forward to a well earned sabbatical in warmer climes where the following phrase need not require any internal rationalization :

Ed Miliband Will Never Be Prime Minister

I am clinging to it ....

Jack's ARSE has given refuge to many.....

Too many perhaps ....

I may have to introduce an Australian points system for entry to my ARSE (copyright N Farage Esq)

Cyclefree said:

Might Labour do something similar?

If so - very very wild off the wall guess here - might they announce that the UK will join the Euro??

It would keep the Lib Dems and SNP on side, would drive the Tories completely batshit crazy and would make Milliband the darling of the Eurocrats.

And on that note, off to vote and work.

One of the loaded spring guns left by the Coalition is the European Union Act 2011. Section 6(5)(e) provides that a decision to make the euro the currency of the United Kingdom must be approved by an Act of Parliament and a referendum. It should be noted however that the requirement for a referendum could be negated by a subsequent Act of Parliament. Furthermore, some academics have argued that this provision is inconsistent with EU law and is unenforceable in any event.

Sandpit said:

Cyclefree said:

When Labour won in 1997 within 48 hours they announced - much to everyone's surprise - the independence of the Bank of England.

Might Labour do something similar?

If so - very very wild off the wall guess here - might they announce that the UK will join the Euro??

It would keep the Lib Dems and SNP on side, would drive the Tories completely batshit crazy and would make Milliband the darling of the Eurocrats.

He wouldn't dare do that, he would be eaten alive by all sides, including most of those who voted for him!

He would also have to repeal the law that the current government passed, that such matters should be referred directly to the electorate.

Well, since he's against having a Euro referendum I don't suppose that last bit would worry him t hat much.

He's likely - if he has the votes - to be more radical where he can then some may assume. He has said that he wants to reshape society rather than simply tinker with it. Joining the euro would do that, would put his main opponents off guard and would, in his view, solve the European question definitively.

Blimey - bad al is a machine gun of bile on twitter this morning. he is a lovely fella.