politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Two new polls have the battle very tight

Just had an e-mail from William Hague (ahem) asking me on GOTV on Thursday, which would seem like a good proxy for where the Conservatives are defending or think they can take seats.

The following came back within 25 miles of N London:

Finchley / Golders Green
Sutton and Cheam
Enfield North
Thurrock
Twickenham
Hendon
Battersea
Stevenage
Watford
Ealing C
Harrow East
Ilford North
Harrow West
S Basildon / E Thurrock
Brentford / Isleworth
Hampstead and Kilburn
Croydon Central
Kingston and Surbiton

So no Carshalton but seems like the Conservatives still think they can bump off Vince (despite Geoffrey's endorsement) and take H&K.

I then thought why not do round my parents in Manchester and then upped it to 100 miles. The following came back:

Pendle
Pudsey
Halesowen / Rowley Regis
Dudley North
Lincoln
Cannock Chase
Chester
Dudley South
Northampton North
Hazel Grove
Nuneaton
Dewsbury
Erewash
Birmingham Northfield
Bury North
Blackpool North
Stockton South
Loughborough
Middlesborough South / E Cleveland
Sherwood
Solihull
Keighley
Halifax
Telford
Warrington South
Colne Valley
Elmet and Rothwell
Louth and Horncastle
Derby North
High Peak
Morley and Outwood
Corby
Wirral West
Morecame and Lunesdale
Wolverhampton SE
Rossendale and Darwen
Sherwood
Amber Valley
Cheadle
Lancaster and Fleetwood
Weaver Vale
Boston and Skegness
NE Derbyshire
N Warwickshire
Walsall North

Not sure how these correspond to the 40/40 strategy but a few individual seats sprung to mind: (1) they think they can still take Ed B; (2) was surprised at Cheadle, which I had thought would be very likely LD; (3) no mention of Chorley, which some had mentioned as a possible Con gain from Labour; (4) North West strategy all about holding seats but the Conservatives think they can take several from Labour in the West Midlands and a few in Yorkshire.

Not sure how much of this is new / illuminating.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Either Major has been caught out saying something off the record or the Mirror are twisting his words...

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/595698952797822976

Well a failing education system can be laid at the door of the 'education, educashun, idducushhin' party.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Either Major has been caught out saying something off the record or the Mirror are twisting his words...

https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/595698952797822976

The Tories have done nothing but provide help for the poor who got that way because of Labour.

@TheKitchenCabinet: Tories very, very optimistic about Cheadle, I hear.

acf2310 said:

YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour and Tories still tied: CON 34%, LAB 34%, LD 9%, UKIP 12%, GRN 5%

And we can all stop F5ing now...as shock horror, its a tie with YouGov...Are YouGov going to still be doing these on Friday onwards?

Dair About halfway through on ITV2+1, so far he has been speaking to the leader of the Liberal Democats and not been certain who the PM is, thought 1305 was 2,000 years ago and flirted with a Sky reporter and Isabel Hardman and been on This Week. After the ads he meets Ed

YG Tie, BMG Tie, Populus Tie, Ashcroft & ComRes small Tory lead, Survation small Labour lead = probably to 1% Conservative lead.

FrancisUrquhart said:

Not sure the Tories will be very happy with the Daily Mail...Guide to keeping Red Ed out, with a massive headline about how long it can take to get a GP's appointment.

htps://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/595701345937678337

Didn't they juxtapose a heavy attack on Ed M the other day with a huge headline about how this government has killed thousands with salt or something? I get the feeling the headline writers all over the place are a little confused about how much they can and can not be on message. The 'for sanity's sake' please seems a little desperate though - like they know it could very easily happen because the people are crazy.

Re the Mirror Headline on Major - it's surely he's been caught out in a spectacular way or his words are twisted, usual sort of thing, but I'm a little unclear on the purpose. I guess it shows the Tories are divided, but it's not like the Mirror editorial likes Major or thinks its readers should listen to him, right?

After lots of polls i reckon its honours even.

COMRES good for Tories.

All others result in EICIPM and at least 3 LAB likely to have most seats

TheKitchenCabinet said:

Just had an e-mail from William Hague (ahem) asking me on GOTV on Thursday, which would seem like a good proxy for where the Conservatives are defending or think they can take seats.

The following came back within 25 miles of N London:

Finchley / Golders Green
Sutton and Cheam
Enfield North
Thurrock
Twickenham
Hendon
Battersea
Stevenage
Watford
Ealing C
Harrow East
Ilford North
Harrow West
S Basildon / E Thurrock
Brentford / Isleworth
Hampstead and Kilburn
Croydon Central
Kingston and Surbiton

So no Carshalton but seems like the Conservatives still think they can bump off Vince (despite Geoffrey's endorsement) and take H&K.

I then thought why not do round my parents in Manchester and then upped it to 100 miles. The following came back:

Pendle
Pudsey
Halesowen / Rowley Regis
Dudley North
Lincoln
Cannock Chase
Chester
Dudley South
Northampton North
Hazel Grove
Nuneaton
Dewsbury
Erewash
Birmingham Northfield
Bury North
Blackpool North
Stockton South
Loughborough
Middlesborough South / E Cleveland
Sherwood
Solihull
Keighley
Halifax
Telford
Warrington South
Colne Valley
Elmet and Rothwell
Louth and Horncastle
Derby North
High Peak
Morley and Outwood
Corby
Wirral West
Morecame and Lunesdale
Wolverhampton SE
Rossendale and Darwen
Sherwood
Amber Valley
Cheadle
Lancaster and Fleetwood
Weaver Vale
Boston and Skegness
NE Derbyshire
N Warwickshire
Walsall North

Not sure how these correspond to the 40/40 strategy but a few individual seats sprung to mind: (1) they think they can still take Ed B; (2) was surprised at Cheadle, which I had thought would be very likely LD; (3) no mention of Chorley, which some had mentioned as a possible Con gain from Labour; (4) North West strategy all about holding seats but the Conservatives think they can take several from Labour in the West Midlands and a few in Yorkshire.

Not sure how much of this is new / illuminating.

The Lab ppc in Cheadle has been impressive in hustings and picked up some support - this can only have come from LDs. Weirdly, we've no Green candidate though not sure what that means, if anything. Still can only really see an LD win though, the Tory candidate is disappointingly (for the blues) lightweight.

Anyone who is repeating a previous poster's twitter links - please can you remove the "https://" from the front of them.

Then we won't have to wade through the repeated images.

Thanks.

TheKitchenCabinet said:

Just had an e-mail from William Hague (ahem) asking me on GOTV on Thursday, which would seem like a good proxy for where the Conservatives are defending or think they can take seats.


Not sure how these correspond to the 40/40 strategy but a few individual seats sprung to mind: (1) they think they can still take Ed B; (2) was surprised at Cheadle, which I had thought would be very likely LD; (3) no mention of Chorley, which some had mentioned as a possible Con gain from Labour; (4) North West strategy all about holding seats but the Conservatives think they can take several from Labour in the West Midlands and a few in Yorkshire.

Not sure how much of this is new / illuminating.

I'm surprised they aren't getting people to GOTV in Crewe and Nantwich.

kle4 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Not sure the Tories will be very happy with the Daily Mail...Guide to keeping Red Ed out, with a massive headline about how long it can take to get a GP's appointment.

htps://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/595701345937678337

Didn't they juxtapose a heavy attack on Ed M the other day with a huge headline about how this government has killed thousands with salt or something? I get the feeling the headline writers all over the place are a little confused about how much they can and can not be on message. The 'for sanity's sake' please seems a little desperate though - like they know it could very easily happen because the people are crazy.

Re the Mirror Headline on Major - it's surely he's been caught out in a spectacular way or his words are twisted, usual sort of thing, but I'm a little unclear on the purpose. I guess it shows the Tories are divided, but it's not like the Mirror editorial likes Major or thinks its readers should listen to him, right?

Mirror headline appears to be from stuff he said while speaking at the Tory Reform Group annual dinner, but they are twisted....e.g.

“We need to acknowledge the fact we have a pretty substantial underclass and there are parts of our country where we have people who have not worked for two generations and whose children do not expect to work."

Well that is just stating fact and a fact that has existed for many many years...as he says himself...but Mirror equate that to Major saying "Tory education policy has failed".

hunchman said:

TheKitchenCabinet said:

Just had an e-mail from William Hague (ahem) asking me on GOTV on Thursday, which would seem like a good proxy for where the Conservatives are defending or think they can take seats.

The following came back within 25 miles of N London:

Finchley / Golders Green
Sutton and Cheam
Enfield North
Thurrock
Twickenham
Hendon
Battersea
Stevenage
Watford
Ealing C
Harrow East
Ilford North
Harrow West
S Basildon / E Thurrock
Brentford / Isleworth
Hampstead and Kilburn
Croydon Central
Kingston and Surbiton

So no Carshalton but seems like the Conservatives still think they can bump off Vince (despite Geoffrey's endorsement) and take H&K.

I then thought why not do round my parents in Manchester and then upped it to 100 miles. The following came back:

Pendle
Pudsey
Halesowen / Rowley Regis
Dudley North
Lincoln
Cannock Chase
Chester
Dudley South
Northampton North
Hazel Grove
Nuneaton
Dewsbury
Erewash
Birmingham Northfield
Bury North
Blackpool North
Stockton South
Loughborough
Middlesborough South / E Cleveland
Sherwood
Solihull
Keighley
Halifax
Telford
Warrington South
Colne Valley
Elmet and Rothwell
Louth and Horncastle
Derby North
High Peak
Morley and Outwood
Corby
Wirral West
Morecame and Lunesdale
Wolverhampton SE
Rossendale and Darwen
Sherwood
Amber Valley
Cheadle
Lancaster and Fleetwood
Weaver Vale
Boston and Skegness
NE Derbyshire
N Warwickshire
Walsall North

Not sure how these correspond to the 40/40 strategy but a few individual seats sprung to mind: (1) they think they can still take Ed B; (2) was surprised at Cheadle, which I had thought would be very likely LD; (3) no mention of Chorley, which some had mentioned as a possible Con gain from Labour; (4) North West strategy all about holding seats but the Conservatives think they can take several from Labour in the West Midlands and a few in Yorkshire.

Not sure how much of this is new / illuminating.

Wolverhampton SW rather than SE surely!

Whoops, yes! Hope nobody did a bet on WSE after that post !

When YouGov are shown to be totally right they'll probably deserve an apology for all the annoyance at their stability they get every night. But they can keep on waiting for that - I need entertainment, YouGov!

SouthamObserver said:

Oliver_PB said:

Closest election for a generation, no doubt. Exciting stuff.

I will laugh if Labour do a bit better in Scotland than polled, rendering the Tories laughable "legitimacy" nonsense moot. It really wouldn't take much.

The right-wing press is becoming increasingly unhinged and desperate, which is quite amusing. That being said, it's somewhat painful seeing what Murdoch has done to The Times.

They've all gone a little beserk. Maybe because they are not making the difference they have in the past. If there is a second GE, what more will they have to throw at Ed?

The Scum Election Day Front Page - Ed Miliband are my hamster

Oliver_PB said:

Closest election for a generation, no doubt. Exciting stuff.

I will laugh if Labour do a bit better in Scotland than polled, rendering the Tories laughable "legitimacy" nonsense moot. It really wouldn't take much.

The right-wing press is becoming increasingly unhinged and desperate, which is quite amusing. That being said, it's somewhat painful seeing what Murdoch has done to The Times.

Unhinged really is the word. If Ed does end up as PM he may just have a few scores to settle.

FrancisUrquhart said:

acf2310 said:

YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour and Tories still tied: CON 34%, LAB 34%, LD 9%, UKIP 12%, GRN 5%

And we can all stop F5ing now...as shock horror, its a tie with YouGov...Are YouGov going to still be doing these on Friday onwards?

I've heard it said that you are more likely to predict the weather tomorrow correctly if you go for exactly the same weather that you had today rather than what all the weather computers say.

Bit like that with YouGov.

kle4 said:

When YouGov are shown to be totally right they'll probably deserve an apology for all the annoyance at their stability they get every night. But they can keep on waiting for that - I need entertainment, YouGov!

Part of their stability has to be down to the need for daily polls, which end up putting the same question to the same group of people.

When you have been asked 3 times in a month who you are going to vote for, then you are more likely to have made up your mind.

hunchman said:

Don't understand all the activity in Hampstead & Kilburn - the Tories haven't got a chance in a month of Sundays there surely?!

There's a very good libdem candidate, and that means they will lose fewer votes to Labour than might normally be the case. That being said, is reckon it'll be 40:30:20

Ah, the Tory Reform Group. Not popular with the current crop of Tories I take it?

kle4 said:

FrancisUrquhart said:

Not sure the Tories will be very happy with the Daily Mail...Guide to keeping Red Ed out, with a massive headline about how long it can take to get a GP's appointment.

htps://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/595701345937678337

Didn't they juxtapose a heavy attack on Ed M the other day with a huge headline about how this government has killed thousands with salt or something? I get the feeling the headline writers all over the place are a little confused about how much they can and can not be on message. The 'for sanity's sake' please seems a little desperate though - like they know it could very easily happen because the people are crazy.

Re the Mirror Headline on Major - it's surely he's been caught out in a spectacular way or his words are twisted, usual sort of thing, but I'm a little unclear on the purpose. I guess it shows the Tories are divided, but it's not like the Mirror editorial likes Major or thinks its readers should listen to him, right?

I expect most Mirror readers are rather old and think of Major as the nice suburban Tory different to all the 'posh' lot now.

But not many Mirror readers were likely to vote Conservative in any case.

HYUFD said:

Dair About halfway through on ITV2+1, so far he has been speaking to the leader of the Liberal Democats and not been certain who the PM is, thought 1305 was 2,000 years ago and flirted with a Sky reporter and Isabel Hardman and been on This Week. After the ads he meets Ed

Not a clue what you are on about. This forum makes it very easy to quote. Try doing it.

SeanT said:

Awful about this senior IRA commander being killed. And in cold blood, too. Tragic. Really. Tragic. What is the world coming to.

*opens bottle of Waitrose Cava*

A man presumed to have ordered one of the most notorious murders in Northern Ireland since the GFA was signed. And yet widely reported in the press today as being a prominent supporter of the peace process. You wouldnt want to mix with the opponents of the peace process!

notme said:

hunchman said:

Really confused about this election right now. Look where Ed Miliband was today - Bedford and Warwickshire North! That's their number 1 Tory target for goodness sake. I've never known the polls be so out of line with where the party leaders are visiting. Look at Cameron - he's gone to so many of the Lib Dem target seats they have as well as Hendon today which I'd got as a dead cert Labour gain. Can anyone explain this complete disconnect between the polls and party leader visits?

Wait until you find out where the Prime Minister is holding his eve of election rally. Will make your head explode.

Wilmington, deloware?

It doesn't look as if the UKIP vote is shifting to Tories at all. Well not if any of the polls are anywhere close to right. No EU Referendum in 2017 then.

SquareRoot said:

not lonely and not old, sad in one respect as my wife died...

I'm sorry to hear that. Everybody dies and every successful marriage ends in a death, but it's still a wrench when it happens.

Should the Tories be disappointed in some of the qualified endorsements from papers? I mean, The Times does say 'Mr Cameron would govern better with a clear Tory majority' but they are being realistic in that Mr Cameron would govern better with a clear Tory majority but 'the polls now indicate that is a remote possibility' and so endorsing a Lib-Con coalition as the next best thing.

rcs1000 said:

hunchman said:

Don't understand all the activity in Hampstead & Kilburn - the Tories haven't got a chance in a month of Sundays there surely?!

There's a very good libdem candidate, and that means they will lose fewer votes to Labour than might normally be the case. That being said, is reckon it'll be 40:30:20

Yes, the LDs should have won it last time, but their chance has gone. The red liberals will swing behind Labour and despite the Mansion Tax (which probably costs less than 100 votes) Labour should coast home easily enough.

Broxtowe? Or is it outside 100 miles?

TheKitchenCabinet said:

Just had an e-mail from William Hague (ahem) asking me on GOTV on Thursday, which would seem like a good proxy for where the Conservatives are defending or think they can take seats.

The following came back within 25 miles of N London:

Finchley / Golders Green
Sutton and Cheam
Enfield North
Thurrock
Twickenham
Hendon
Battersea
Stevenage
Watford
Ealing C
Harrow East
Ilford North
Harrow West
S Basildon / E Thurrock
Brentford / Isleworth
Hampstead and Kilburn
Croydon Central
Kingston and Surbiton

So no Carshalton but seems like the Conservatives still think they can bump off Vince (despite Geoffrey's endorsement) and take H&K.

I then thought why not do round my parents in Manchester and then upped it to 100 miles. The following came back:

Pendle
Pudsey
Halesowen / Rowley Regis
Dudley North
Lincoln
Cannock Chase
Chester
Dudley South
Northampton North
Hazel Grove
Nuneaton
Dewsbury
Erewash
Birmingham Northfield
Bury North
Blackpool North
Stockton South
Loughborough
Middlesborough South / E Cleveland
Sherwood
Solihull
Keighley
Halifax
Telford
Warrington South
Colne Valley
Elmet and Rothwell
Louth and Horncastle
Derby North
High Peak
Morley and Outwood
Corby
Wirral West
Morecame and Lunesdale
Wolverhampton SE
Rossendale and Darwen
Sherwood
Amber Valley
Cheadle
Lancaster and Fleetwood
Weaver Vale
Boston and Skegness
NE Derbyshire
N Warwickshire
Walsall North

Not sure how these correspond to the 40/40 strategy but a few individual seats sprung to mind: (1) they think they can still take Ed B; (2) was surprised at Cheadle, which I had thought would be very likely LD; (3) no mention of Chorley, which some had mentioned as a possible Con gain from Labour; (4) North West strategy all about holding seats but the Conservatives think they can take several from Labour in the West Midlands and a few in Yorkshire.

Not sure how much of this is new / illuminating.

notme said:

hunchman said:

Really confused about this election right now. Look where Ed Miliband was today - Bedford and Warwickshire North! That's their number 1 Tory target for goodness sake. I've never known the polls be so out of line with where the party leaders are visiting. Look at Cameron - he's gone to so many of the Lib Dem target seats they have as well as Hendon today which I'd got as a dead cert Labour gain. Can anyone explain this complete disconnect between the polls and party leader visits?

Wait until you find out where the Prime Minister is holding his eve of election rally. Will make your head explode.

notme said:

hunchman said:

Really confused about this election right now. Look where Ed Miliband was today - Bedford and Warwickshire North! That's their number 1 Tory target for goodness sake. I've never known the polls be so out of line with where the party leaders are visiting. Look at Cameron - he's gone to so many of the Lib Dem target seats they have as well as Hendon today which I'd got as a dead cert Labour gain. Can anyone explain this complete disconnect between the polls and party leader visits?

Wait until you find out where the Prime Minister is holding his eve of election rally. Will make your head explode.

Brussels?

notme said:

hunchman said:

Really confused about this election right now. Look where Ed Miliband was today - Bedford and Warwickshire North! That's their number 1 Tory target for goodness sake. I've never known the polls be so out of line with where the party leaders are visiting. Look at Cameron - he's gone to so many of the Lib Dem target seats they have as well as Hendon today which I'd got as a dead cert Labour gain. Can anyone explain this complete disconnect between the polls and party leader visits?

Wait until you find out where the Prime Minister is holding his eve of election rally. Will make your head explode.

Rhondda? Shetlands? Prague? Tatooine?

SouthamObserver said:

Dave's pumped up passion act is also looking ever so slightly unhinged. Everyone needs a rest.

Dave has the look of a man who knows he will have failed to win a majority for the Tories in 2 elections against a damaged Labour party.

hunchman said:

notme said:

hunchman said:

Really confused about this election right now. Look where Ed Miliband was today - Bedford and Warwickshire North! That's their number 1 Tory target for goodness sake. I've never known the polls be so out of line with where the party leaders are visiting. Look at Cameron - he's gone to so many of the Lib Dem target seats they have as well as Hendon today which I'd got as a dead cert Labour gain. Can anyone explain this complete disconnect between the polls and party leader visits?

Wait until you find out where the Prime Minister is holding his eve of election rally. Will make your head explode.

Halifax? Had to laugh when Crosby put that on his list of targets. That was last Tory in 1987 wasn't it?!

1983

Nearly a Conservative gain in 1992 though.

compouter2 said:

notme said:

hunchman said:

Really confused about this election right now. Look where Ed Miliband was today - Bedford and Warwickshire North! That's their number 1 Tory target for goodness sake. I've never known the polls be so out of line with where the party leaders are visiting. Look at Cameron - he's gone to so many of the Lib Dem target seats they have as well as Hendon today which I'd got as a dead cert Labour gain. Can anyone explain this complete disconnect between the polls and party leader visits?

Wait until you find out where the Prime Minister is holding his eve of election rally. Will make your head explode.

Bootle?

Carlisle

Fwiw my take on phone v internet question. I've been screening calls for years now as 75% + of calls were sales / surveys / ppi/ accident. Thursday I worked from home so thought I'd try answering all calls. Sure enough the same 75% many with the pause before someone speaks at which point you know that 10 people are being called on a first answer basis. I think many people use answerphones and caller display to screen calls like this which polling calls would fall into. Also today I saw my 75 year old mother the most technophobic woman ever who is now very relaxed using her ipad and smartphone. My experience is that these 2 changes have happened in the last 5 years...... just my view...

Artist said:

TheKitchenCabinet said:

Just had an e-mail from William Hague (ahem) asking me on GOTV on Thursday, which would seem like a good proxy for where the Conservatives are defending or think they can take seats.


Not sure how these correspond to the 40/40 strategy but a few individual seats sprung to mind: (1) they think they can still take Ed B; (2) was surprised at Cheadle, which I had thought would be very likely LD; (3) no mention of Chorley, which some had mentioned as a possible Con gain from Labour; (4) North West strategy all about holding seats but the Conservatives think they can take several from Labour in the West Midlands and a few in Yorkshire.

Not sure how much of this is new / illuminating.

I'm surprised they aren't getting people to GOTV in Crewe and Nantwich.

Yes, surprised, they must think they have lost it as they are campaigning in several seats around it.

I also missed out Broxtowe

TGOHF said:

Tomorrows Sun front page utter genius.

I was worried when you posted that. Just checked it, that's crap, even for The Scums anti-Miliband efforts.

AndreaParma_82 said:

Broxtowe? Or is it outside 100 miles?

TheKitchenCabinet said:

Just had an e-mail from William Hague (ahem) asking me on GOTV on Thursday, which would seem like a good proxy for where the Conservatives are defending or think they can take seats.

The following came back within 25 miles of N London:

Finchley / Golders Green
Sutton and Cheam
Enfield North
Thurrock
Twickenham
Hendon
Battersea
Stevenage
Watford
Ealing C
Harrow East
Ilford North
Harrow West
S Basildon / E Thurrock
Brentford / Isleworth
Hampstead and Kilburn
Croydon Central
Kingston and Surbiton

So no Carshalton but seems like the Conservatives still think they can bump off Vince (despite Geoffrey's endorsement) and take H&K.

I then thought why not do round my parents in Manchester and then upped it to 100 miles. The following came back:

Pendle
Pudsey
Halesowen / Rowley Regis
Dudley North
Lincoln
Cannock Chase
Chester
Dudley South
Northampton North
Hazel Grove
Nuneaton
Dewsbury
Erewash
Birmingham Northfield
Bury North
Blackpool North
Stockton South
Loughborough
Middlesborough South / E Cleveland
Sherwood
Solihull
Keighley
Halifax
Telford
Warrington South
Colne Valley
Elmet and Rothwell
Louth and Horncastle
Derby North
High Peak
Morley and Outwood
Corby
Wirral West
Morecame and Lunesdale
Wolverhampton SE
Rossendale and Darwen
Sherwood
Amber Valley
Cheadle
Lancaster and Fleetwood
Weaver Vale
Boston and Skegness
NE Derbyshire
N Warwickshire
Walsall North

Not sure how these correspond to the 40/40 strategy but a few individual seats sprung to mind: (1) they think they can still take Ed B; (2) was surprised at Cheadle, which I had thought would be very likely LD; (3) no mention of Chorley, which some had mentioned as a possible Con gain from Labour; (4) North West strategy all about holding seats but the Conservatives think they can take several from Labour in the West Midlands and a few in Yorkshire.

Not sure how much of this is new / illuminating.

Yes Broxtowe is on the list, as is Loughborough, Erewash, Derby N, Sherwood and Amber Valley.

HYUFD said:

UKIP at 16% with Survation and 12% with BMG with the Tories and Labour neck and neck Cameron needs to squeeze that vote

O/T Perhaps the most enlightening perspective on the General Election 'Educating Joey Essex' on ITV2 this evening, including Joey meeting Nick Clegg, Nigel Farage, Ed Miliband and Priti Patel

What was the verdict?

Verulamius said:

Try eastwestrail.org.uk for details of the new link project for the rail between Cambridge and Oxford.

The new old Varsity Line shut in 1966

noisywinter said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

hunchman said:

Don't understand all the activity in Hampstead & Kilburn - the Tories haven't got a chance in a month of Sundays there surely?!

Correct.

I have a few friends there, some first time voters, all apparently voting Tory

Good for them. They will keep the size of the majority down.

HYUFD said:

FU

No need to be rude, HYUFD

YouGov = YawnGov

AndreaParma_82 said:

Broxtowe? Or is it outside 100 miles?

TheKitchenCabinet said:

Just had an e-mail from William Hague (ahem) asking me on GOTV on Thursday, which would seem like a good proxy for where the Conservatives are defending or think they can take seats.

The following came back within 25 miles of N London:

Finchley / Golders Green
Sutton and Cheam
Enfield North
Thurrock
Twickenham
Hendon
Battersea
Stevenage
Watford
Ealing C
Harrow East
Ilford North
Harrow West
S Basildon / E Thurrock
Brentford / Isleworth
Hampstead and Kilburn
Croydon Central
Kingston and Surbiton

So no Carshalton but seems like the Conservatives still think they can bump off Vince (despite Geoffrey's endorsement) and take H&K.

I then thought why not do round my parents in Manchester and then upped it to 100 miles. The following came back:

Pendle
Pudsey
Halesowen / Rowley Regis
Dudley North
Lincoln
Cannock Chase
Chester
Dudley South
Northampton North
Hazel Grove
Nuneaton
Dewsbury
Erewash
Birmingham Northfield
Bury North
Blackpool North
Stockton South
Loughborough
Middlesborough South / E Cleveland
Sherwood
Solihull
Keighley
Halifax
Telford
Warrington South
Colne Valley
Elmet and Rothwell
Louth and Horncastle
Derby North
High Peak
Morley and Outwood
Corby
Wirral West
Morecame and Lunesdale
Wolverhampton SE
Rossendale and Darwen
Sherwood
Amber Valley
Cheadle
Lancaster and Fleetwood
Weaver Vale
Boston and Skegness
NE Derbyshire
N Warwickshire
Walsall North

Not sure how these correspond to the 40/40 strategy but a few individual seats sprung to mind: (1) they think they can still take Ed B; (2) was surprised at Cheadle, which I had thought would be very likely LD; (3) no mention of Chorley, which some had mentioned as a possible Con gain from Labour; (4) North West strategy all about holding seats but the Conservatives think they can take several from Labour in the West Midlands and a few in Yorkshire.

Not sure how much of this is new / illuminating.

Sorry, Andrea - I had missed out Broxtowe by mistake. As someone said earlier though, interesting Crewe not on the list (I went through it again to make sure I had not missed more out).