Based on the last price matched on Betfair's constituency markets, Labour have a >50% chance of winning 40 Conservative seats, 11 LD seats - and losing 39 to the SNP.
OK I just broke the rule of a lifetime and had a minor punt on Labour Most Seats. The odds are daft.
I don't think LabMostSeats will happen, and if I were honest I hope it does not, but having said that it's not an outrageous probability. I'm not betting on this election (a combination of time constraints and cowardice) but given the paltry returns of NOM, betting on LabMostSeats isn't a bad way to go.
Based on the last price matched on Betfair's constituency markets, Labour have a >50% chance of winning 40 Conservative seats, 11 LD seats - and losing 39 to the SNP.
= 270 seats
The SPIN spread on Labour @ 263-267 at the moment seems to have much higher upside than down. If they poll ~34% then 280+ looks alot more likely than 250 or less.
I did not realise Nick Robinson had such power. I am not familiar with the rise of UKIP, perhaps you could enlighten me how Nick is at fault.
I'm fairly sure it was The Spectator I read it on. Maybe it was elsewhere but I've seen multiple sources for the claim. It may well be bullshit but as Political Editor, Robinson does hold some weight at the BBC.
I'm sure he does, I've just never heard this connection between him and the rise of UKIP before, which is most interesting if it is a speculated thing.
Though most PB Hodges won't admit it. There are squirrel logs all over my back garden as Basil has heard there is a baddun for the Tories due imminently. Brace yourselves, it could be a Reverse Swingback.
Where is Compouter... I will be surprised if the racist party get 14% I think it will be under 10%.. There's lots of BNP'ers hiding in UKIP or at least that seems to be the case.
A funny scenario would be daily polls after the election up to any Queen's Speech - seeing if the public rapidly shifts back and forth depending on whether it looks like the Tories are giving up too much to the LDs and the Kipper vote rises, or Lab sees its polling collapse as it bends the knee to Sturgeon, and then each side reacting against that polling, ruining their own coalition negotiations.
Where is Compouter... I will be surprised if the racist party get 14% I think it will be under 10%.. There's lots of BNP'ers hiding in UKIP or at least that seems to be the case.
Are you are actually stupid, or do you just act like it?
I did not realise Nick Robinson had such power. I am not familiar with the rise of UKIP, perhaps you could enlighten me how Nick is at fault.
I'm fairly sure it was The Spectator I read it on. Maybe it was elsewhere but I've seen multiple sources for the claim. It may well be bullshit but as Political Editor, Robinson does hold some weight at the BBC.
I'm sure he does, I've just never heard this connection between him and the rise of UKIP before, which is most interesting if it is a speculated thing.
From memory the claims (if it was) The Spectator was making was that Robinson decided Immigration needed more coverage and focused on UKIP to get that. It may well be an unintended consequence of Robinson's decision.
Where is Compouter... I will be surprised if the racist party get 14% I think it will be under 10%.. There's lots of BNP'ers hiding in UKIP or at least that seems to be the case.
Even if every 2010 BNPer were currently saying they were going to vote UKIP and they all changed their minds between now and Thursday, it still wouldn't make the UKIP score drop from 14 to under 10 you imbecile
Summary Ashcroft - 4 point move to Labour Survation - 2 point move to Tory (although no movement from last Mirror poll) BMG - 3 point move to Labour Comres - 3 point move to Tory Populus - No swing
Summary Ashcroft - 4 point move to Labour Survation - 2 point move to Tory (although no movement from last Mirror poll) BMG - 3 point move to Labour Comres - 3 point move to Tory Populus - No swing
Tories up 2 and 3 on the phones.
Labour level or slightly ahead on the internet.
Old people don't use the internet. Young people don't vote.
As others have said, it is very hard to square the polls with all the "mood music" coming from Labour.
Very few people in any of the parties will have an overview of total canvassing returns. It will be a tightly held secret with the campaign leadership.
I don't believe there is any worthwhile info from postal votes - even if a few slips have been illegally glimpsed.
I don't believe the parties have access to any more worthwhile polls than we all have. It would cost a fortune and still have similar MOEs.
So the "mood music" will be a strategic choice from the campaigns' leadership..
If you think you are winning, you will play it down to avoid any complacency. "It's very tight".
If you think you are losing, you will play it up to boost morale. "We have a great victory within our grasp". You might even think it is worthwhile investing in some betting to give credence to your claim.
I did not realise Nick Robinson had such power. I am not familiar with the rise of UKIP, perhaps you could enlighten me how Nick is at fault.
I'm fairly sure it was The Spectator I read it on. Maybe it was elsewhere but I've seen multiple sources for the claim. It may well be bullshit but as Political Editor, Robinson does hold some weight at the BBC.
I'm sure he does, I've just never heard this connection between him and the rise of UKIP before, which is most interesting if it is a speculated thing.
I should clarify that by speculated thing I had meant basically that it was a widely shared theory, which is why I was surprised I had not heard of it.
Where is Compouter... I will be surprised if the racist party get 14% I think it will be under 10%.. There's lots of BNP'ers hiding in UKIP or at least that seems to be the case.
Even if every 2010 BNPer were currently saying they were going to vote UKIP and they all changed their minds between now and Thursday, it still wouldn't make the UKIP score drop from 14 to under 10 you imbecile
Tut tut, getting aggressive.. the truth hurts... too many racists in UKIP, you must know quite a few yourself..
Summary Ashcroft - 4 point move to Labour Survation - 2 point move to Tory (although no movement from last Mirror poll) BMG - 3 point move to Labour Comres - 3 point move to Tory Populus - No swing
Tories up 2 and 3 on the phones.
Labour level or slightly ahead on the internet.
Old people don't use the internet. Young people don't vote.
Sure this ComRes poll is ok? Not worried about weighting?
We both know that. However that is also completely irrelevant to the general public. They will see losers ganging up to try and lock the rightful winners out of power - and will give them a kicking in the ballot booth for it.
Possibly but that sounds very reminiscent of what many Democrats were saying when Bush Jnr became President 'Redefeat Bush' etc
I did not realise Nick Robinson had such power. I am not familiar with the rise of UKIP, perhaps you could enlighten me how Nick is at fault.
I'm fairly sure it was The Spectator I read it on. Maybe it was elsewhere but I've seen multiple sources for the claim. It may well be bullshit but as Political Editor, Robinson does hold some weight at the BBC.
I'm sure he does, I've just never heard this connection between him and the rise of UKIP before, which is most interesting if it is a speculated thing.
I should clarify that by speculated thing I had meant basically that it was a widely shared theory, which is why I was surprised I had not heard of it.
Dunno, it was all coming out middle of last year and to be fair I wasn't paying attention. But given that, to have got the impression it was Robinson responsible means it must have been more than Bubble deep.
Where is Compouter... I will be surprised if the racist party get 14% I think it will be under 10%.. There's lots of BNP'ers hiding in UKIP or at least that seems to be the case.
Err........I'm here and over in the other thread. Yougov 14 minutes away.
UKIP at 16% with Survation and 12% with BMG with the Tories and Labour neck and neck Cameron needs to squeeze that vote
O/T Perhaps the most enlightening perspective on the General Election 'Educating Joey Essex' on ITV2 this evening, including Joey meeting Nick Clegg, Nigel Farage, Ed Miliband and Priti Patel
Where is Compouter... I will be surprised if the racist party get 14% I think it will be under 10%.. There's lots of BNP'ers hiding in UKIP or at least that seems to be the case.
Err........I'm here and over in the other thread. Yougov 14 minutes away.
yes and you only really appear for yougov.. funny that ...
Summary Ashcroft - 4 point move to Labour Survation - 2 point move to Tory (although no movement from last Mirror poll) BMG - 3 point move to Labour Comres - 3 point move to Tory Populus - No swing
Tories up 2 and 3 on the phones.
Labour level or slightly ahead on the internet.
Old people don't use the internet. Young people don't vote.
It's just occurred to me that, since registering to vote online on the 19th April, I still don't know if I can actually vote. I got an email straight away giving me a reference code and saying my council will contact me either to confirm i'm registered, or to ask for more information.
I haven't received anything at all by email, phone, or post.
I presume i'm registered - but which polling station do I go to? I'll have to call the council tomorrow, I guess.
I also think we've seen peak SNP (see the latest YouGov indypoll). The last 48 hours have not been good for the Nats, with a definite whiff of Nationalistic hubris unhappily combining with images of slightly brownshirt Nat bullying. They'll still do very well, but I do not see a clean sweep.
We've seen then same narrative as in the First Indyref. The media has spun a narrative of which the SNP has no control, creating a black cloud over the party in this case and Yes Scotland in the previous case. I have little doubt this didn;t chance the outcome of the First Indyref.
But this time there is a stronger grassroots, there is a stronger feeling in the country and they have a massive lead - 54% is different to the 48% they had in the First Indyref. They can drop the 2% or 3% that the media campaign can cause and still hit 50% and win everything.
Although it's 23 years ago, "Sheffield" remains the elephant in the room, everyone of a certain age remembers it. We keep being told that polling methodologies are much improved since then ..... yea right. That must be why they're still playing about with them every other week.
Adding the polls together puts the Tories 1-2 points ahead. Not nearly enough. I reckon Labour will edge it in seats (though not votes) on such a score.
Robert Smithson, no fool he, this morning had the Tories no fewer than 63 seats ahead of Labour, whilst Prof Stephen Fisher had them with just over half that lead.
Everyone who said UKIP wouldn't end up causing the Tories to lose office is looking a bit silly at the moment, because that's precisely the position as things stand.
Is it just possible that SF might review their long held policy and take their seats in such a shambolic Parliament? The NI budget is already under more pressure than would have been contemplated during the troubles and there has to be a risk that their gross level of subsidy will be under further pressure in the next Parliament.
If the SNP are demanding to be bought off and some of the elected representatives of NI are keeping away from the pork barrel will people start to question the wisdom of staying away ?
Nah. Cameron would claim "legitimacy" on that, and I reckon he would win through. Too many Labour MPs would be (rightly) chary of a lethal "non deal deal" with the Nats.
A poisoned chalice tho. Any Tory government trying to rule with those numbers would be shortlived.
I think that's the problem for the Tories. Realistically, they need to do substantially better than most polls are predicting, and they also need the LDs to do much better, too - to create viable coalition numbers. Anything else and you've got arrangement which won't last.
Summary Ashcroft - 4 point move to Labour Survation - 2 point move to Tory (although no movement from last Mirror poll) BMG - 3 point move to Labour Comres - 3 point move to Tory Populus - No swing
Tories up 2 and 3 on the phones.
Labour level or slightly ahead on the internet.
Old people don't use the internet. Young people don't vote.
Old people do use the internet...loads of people in their 60s and 70s are constantly on their damn iPads and have the time to fill in stupid surveys.
Summary Ashcroft - 4 point move to Labour Survation - 2 point move to Tory (although no movement from last Mirror poll) BMG - 3 point move to Labour Comres - 3 point move to Tory Populus - No swing
Tories up 2 and 3 on the phones.
Labour level or slightly ahead on the internet.
Old people don't use the internet. Young people don't vote.
Where is Compouter... I will be surprised if the racist party get 14% I think it will be under 10%.. There's lots of BNP'ers hiding in UKIP or at least that seems to be the case.
Err........I'm here and over in the other thread. Yougov 14 minutes away.
yes and you only really appear for yougov.. funny that ...
Nah. Cameron would claim "legitimacy" on that, and I reckon he would win through. Too many Labour MPs would be (rightly) chary of a lethal "non deal deal" with the Nats.
A poisoned chalice tho. Any Tory government trying to rule with those numbers would be shortlived.
So shortlived it wouldn't even get a Queen's Speech passed.
If Labour have the numbers to force Cameron out then they'll have no choice but to do so - otherwise its civil war within Labour and a stick for the SNP to beat them with forever.
The majority of the British public think that the last Labour Government spent too much government money (59%). This includes (34%) current Labour voters. 22% of Britons think the last Labour government spent about the right amount of money, while 8% say it did not spent enough. [8% includes most of the Greens, no doubt]
EU membership:
Heading into the General Election, there is a large lead for remaining a part of the EU. 56% of Britons say they would vote to stay in, compared to 34% who say they would vote to leave. 10% say they don’t know how they will vote.
Where is Compouter... I will be surprised if the racist party get 14% I think it will be under 10%.. There's lots of BNP'ers hiding in UKIP or at least that seems to be the case.
Even if every 2010 BNPer were currently saying they were going to vote UKIP and they all changed their minds between now and Thursday, it still wouldn't make the UKIP score drop from 14 to under 10 you imbecile
Tut tut, getting aggressive.. the truth hurts... too many racists in UKIP, you must know quite a few yourself..
UKIP at 16% with Survation and 12% with BMG with the Tories and Labour neck and neck Cameron needs to squeeze that vote
O/T Perhaps the most enlightening perspective on the General Election 'Educating Joey Essex' on ITV2 this evening, including Joey meeting Nick Clegg, Nigel Farage, Ed Miliband and Priti Patel
Closest election for a generation, no doubt. Exciting stuff.
I will laugh if Labour do a bit better in Scotland than polled, rendering the Tories laughable "legitimacy" nonsense moot. It really wouldn't take much.
The right-wing press is becoming increasingly unhinged and desperate, which is quite amusing. That being said, it's somewhat painful seeing what Murdoch has done to The Times.
Phone polls aren't exactly as flawless as many on PB would have you believe. They also got the LD vote share wrong in 2010, along with online polls. ICM didn't get the EU Elections right either.
Nah. Cameron would claim "legitimacy" on that, and I reckon he would win through. Too many Labour MPs would be (rightly) chary of a lethal "non deal deal" with the Nats.
A poisoned chalice tho. Any Tory government trying to rule with those numbers would be shortlived.
All true. Though if 25 LDs survived a coalition could be formed with DUP c&s support. Might be good to have a bit of a 'legislation holiday'.
Wouldn't "Times does what Murdoch tells it to" be a little nearer the truth?
Traditionally the Times was mostly left to its own devices. I don't know if that has now changed, but it certainly become a lot more Tory friendly and thats is a shame.
Where is Compouter... I will be surprised if the racist party get 14% I think it will be under 10%.. There's lots of BNP'ers hiding in UKIP or at least that seems to be the case.
Even if every 2010 BNPer were currently saying they were going to vote UKIP and they all changed their minds between now and Thursday, it still wouldn't make the UKIP score drop from 14 to under 10 you imbecile
Tut tut, getting aggressive.. the truth hurts... too many racists in UKIP, you must know quite a few yourself..
Sad lonely old man. Poor you
not lonely and not old, sad in one respect as my wife died, but hey you keep shilling for your racist party.. History teaches us NOT to trust parties like UKIP, .
Really confused about this election right now. Look where Ed Miliband was today - Bedford and Warwickshire North! That's their number 1 Tory target for goodness sake. I've never known the polls be so out of line with where the party leaders are visiting. Look at Cameron - he's gone to so many of the Lib Dem target seats they have as well as Hendon today which I'd got as a dead cert Labour gain. Can anyone explain this complete disconnect between the polls and party leader visits?
Summary Ashcroft - 4 point move to Labour Survation - 2 point move to Tory (although no movement from last Mirror poll) BMG - 3 point move to Labour Comres - 3 point move to Tory Populus - No swing
Tories up 2 and 3 on the phones.
Labour level or slightly ahead on the internet.
Old people don't use the internet. Young people don't vote.
Sure this ComRes poll is ok? Not worried about weighting?
"A UKIP parliamentary candidate was dramatically suspended from the party tonight after Mirror investigators filmed him threatening to shoot his Tory rival.
Robert Blay, who is standing in North East Hampshire, made the shocking threat of violence against Conservative Ranil Jayawardena.
And in a vile and shocking outburst, he raged: “If he is I will personally put a bullet between his eyes.
"If this lad turns up to be our Prime Minister I will personally put a bullet in him. That’s how strong I feel about it.
“I won’t have this f***** as our Prime Minister. I absolutely loathe him.”"
Not sure the Tories will be very happy with the Daily Mail...Guide to keeping Red Ed out, with a massive headline about how long it can take to get a GP's appointment.
Comments
http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2643743
= 270 seats
This thing ain't over
;-)
Con 35% (+2)
Lab 32% (-1)
Lib Dem 9% (+1)
UKIP 14% (+1)
Green 4% (-3)
Others 6% (No change)
GET IN.
http://www.bristolpost.co.uk/Vandals-drilled-oil-tank-attack-Bristol-MP/story-26443808-detail/story.html
BOOM
BOOM
BOOM
;-)
More seriously though...we all ready for another go in 12 months time? Same place, same time?
Never.
Stay 56%
Leave 34%
Here's BBC defending Nick Robinson supporting UKIP coverage claims
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ebgsr5GrR8w
It's heavily spun.
From memory the claims (if it was) The Spectator was making was that Robinson decided Immigration needed more coverage and focused on UKIP to get that. It may well be an unintended consequence of Robinson's decision.
Ashcroft - 4 point move to Labour
Survation - 2 point move to Tory (although no movement from last Mirror poll)
BMG - 3 point move to Labour
Comres - 3 point move to Tory
Populus - No swing
Labour level or slightly ahead on the internet.
Old people don't use the internet. Young people don't vote.
I don't believe there is any worthwhile info from postal votes - even if a few slips have been illegally glimpsed.
I don't believe the parties have access to any more worthwhile polls than we all have. It would cost a fortune and still have similar MOEs.
So the "mood music" will be a strategic choice from the campaigns' leadership..
If you think you are winning, you will play it down to avoid any complacency. "It's very tight".
If you think you are losing, you will play it up to boost morale. "We have a great victory within our grasp". You might even think it is worthwhile investing in some betting to give credence to your claim.
It is not WYSIWYG.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/595696164130926593
Michael Heaver @Michael_Heaver
Latest ComRes figures for UKIP have gone 10%, 11%, 13%, 14% today. Going up... http://www.comres.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/ITV-News-Daily-Mail-Political-Poll-5th-May-2015-6527.pdf …
Con 282
Lab 272
Ed is still PM.
Compouter seems to have the ear for You Gov, so I expect it to be adverse for the Tories... he /she must be working in Labour HQ
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/595698177409429504
O/T Perhaps the most enlightening perspective on the General Election 'Educating Joey Essex' on ITV2 this evening, including Joey meeting Nick Clegg, Nigel Farage, Ed Miliband and Priti Patel
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/595698952797822976
I haven't received anything at all by email, phone, or post.
I presume i'm registered - but which polling station do I go to? I'll have to call the council tomorrow, I guess.
I can't be the only one in this situation.
But this time there is a stronger grassroots, there is a stronger feeling in the country and they have a massive lead - 54% is different to the 48% they had in the First Indyref. They can drop the 2% or 3% that the media campaign can cause and still hit 50% and win everything.
However, if it is E&W only, then relief !
PLEASE CONFIRM
If the SNP are demanding to be bought off and some of the elected representatives of NI are keeping away from the pork barrel will people start to question the wisdom of staying away ?
ComRes = Phone
If Labour have the numbers to force Cameron out then they'll have no choice but to do so - otherwise its civil war within Labour and a stick for the SNP to beat them with forever.
Labour’s spending in the Blair/Brown years:
The majority of the British public think that the last Labour Government spent too much government money (59%). This includes (34%) current Labour voters.
22% of Britons think the last Labour government spent about the right amount of money, while 8% say it did not spent enough. [8% includes most of the Greens, no doubt]
EU membership:
Heading into the General Election, there is a large lead for remaining a part of the EU. 56% of Britons say they would vote to stay in, compared to 34% who say they would vote to leave. 10% say they don’t know how they will vote.
Did the serial letch find Priti most convincing?
I will laugh if Labour do a bit better in Scotland than polled, rendering the Tories laughable "legitimacy" nonsense moot. It really wouldn't take much.
The right-wing press is becoming increasingly unhinged and desperate, which is quite amusing. That being said, it's somewhat painful seeing what Murdoch has done to The Times.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/may/05/flyer-voters-oust-labour-us-style-dirty-tricks-campaign-key-seat
But it does look like evenly distributed chaos.
Tories by 4.
Robert Blay, who is standing in North East Hampshire, made the shocking threat of violence against Conservative Ranil Jayawardena.
And in a vile and shocking outburst, he raged: “If he is I will personally put a bullet between his eyes.
"If this lad turns up to be our Prime Minister I will personally put a bullet in him. That’s how strong I feel about it.
“I won’t have this f***** as our Prime Minister. I absolutely loathe him.”"
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/robert-blay-ukip-suspends-parliamentary-5641537
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/595701345937678337