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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Two new polls have the battle very tight

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  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    Should I put The Sun down as a maybe for Labour?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    The papers are full of the post-election negotiations even before most votes have been cast:

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CERfzOAWIAAh4BR.jpg

    The Independent's sub-heading catches the eye - "~Seventy per cent of voters think the SNP should not be allowed to veto English laws". That's going to complicate coalition-building for Ed Miliband.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    notme said:

    Wait until you find out where the Prime Minister is holding his eve of election rally. Will make your head explode.

    Morley and Outwood?
  • Eh_ehm_a_ehEh_ehm_a_eh Posts: 552

    notme said:

    hunchman said:

    Really confused about this election right now. Look where Ed Miliband was today - Bedford and Warwickshire North! That's their number 1 Tory target for goodness sake. I've never known the polls be so out of line with where the party leaders are visiting. Look at Cameron - he's gone to so many of the Lib Dem target seats they have as well as Hendon today which I'd got as a dead cert Labour gain. Can anyone explain this complete disconnect between the polls and party leader visits?

    Wait until you find out where the Prime Minister is holding his eve of election rally. Will make your head explode.
    Bootle?
    Carlisle
    Thanet S !!??
    Its a Cumbrian seat can't remember which one!!!

    notme said:

    hunchman said:

    Really confused about this election right now. Look where Ed Miliband was today - Bedford and Warwickshire North! That's their number 1 Tory target for goodness sake. I've never known the polls be so out of line with where the party leaders are visiting. Look at Cameron - he's gone to so many of the Lib Dem target seats they have as well as Hendon today which I'd got as a dead cert Labour gain. Can anyone explain this complete disconnect between the polls and party leader visits?

    Wait until you find out where the Prime Minister is holding his eve of election rally. Will make your head explode.
    Bootle?
    Carlisle
    Thanet S !!??
    Its a Cumbrian seat can't remember which one!!!
    Cockermouth?

  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Thanks!

    Broxtowe? Or is it outside 100 miles?

    Just had an e-mail from William Hague (ahem) asking me on GOTV on Thursday, which would seem like a good proxy for where the Conservatives are defending or think they can take seats.

    The following came back within 25 miles of N London:

    Finchley / Golders Green
    Sutton and Cheam
    Enfield North
    Thurrock
    Twickenham
    Hendon
    Battersea
    Stevenage
    Watford
    Ealing C
    Harrow East
    Ilford North
    Harrow West
    S Basildon / E Thurrock
    Brentford / Isleworth
    Hampstead and Kilburn
    Croydon Central
    Kingston and Surbiton

    So no Carshalton but seems like the Conservatives still think they can bump off Vince (despite Geoffrey's endorsement) and take H&K.

    I then thought why not do round my parents in Manchester and then upped it to 100 miles. The following came back:

    Pendle
    Pudsey
    Halesowen / Rowley Regis
    Dudley North
    Lincoln
    Cannock Chase
    Chester
    Dudley South
    Northampton North
    Hazel Grove
    Nuneaton
    Dewsbury
    Erewash
    Birmingham Northfield
    Bury North
    Blackpool North
    Stockton South
    Loughborough
    Middlesborough South / E Cleveland
    Sherwood
    Solihull
    Keighley
    Halifax
    Telford
    Warrington South
    Colne Valley
    Elmet and Rothwell
    Louth and Horncastle
    Derby North
    High Peak
    Morley and Outwood
    Corby
    Wirral West
    Morecame and Lunesdale
    Wolverhampton SE
    Rossendale and Darwen
    Sherwood
    Amber Valley
    Cheadle
    Lancaster and Fleetwood
    Weaver Vale
    Boston and Skegness
    NE Derbyshire
    N Warwickshire
    Walsall North

    Not sure how these correspond to the 40/40 strategy but a few individual seats sprung to mind: (1) they think they can still take Ed B; (2) was surprised at Cheadle, which I had thought would be very likely LD; (3) no mention of Chorley, which some had mentioned as a possible Con gain from Labour; (4) North West strategy all about holding seats but the Conservatives think they can take several from Labour in the West Midlands and a few in Yorkshire.

    Not sure how much of this is new / illuminating.





    Sorry, Andrea - I had missed out Broxtowe by mistake. As someone said earlier though, interesting Crewe not on the list (I went through it again to make sure I had not missed more out).
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    Neil said:

    I'm beginning to think that everyone should vote tactically for the party most likely to win to save us all from the horrible prospect of having to re-run what must be the most goddam awful GE ever before the end of the year.

    How about adding a few extras into the next campaign eg cricket 'power plays' and 'jokers' from Its A Knockout.
    How about electrocuting the testicles of any politician who reverts to "you cant govern without the SNP" or cries repeatedly about being shouted at in the streets by mad Scotsmen.


  • hunchman said:

    acf2310 said:

    @TheKitchenCabinet: Tories very, very optimistic about Cheadle, I hear.

    Would be surprised but stranger things have happened
    hunchman said:

    Don't understand all the activity in Hampstead & Kilburn - the Tories haven't got a chance in a month of Sundays there surely?!

    I think a lot of the Tory optimism is about how in 2010 no-one expected them to take the seat and yet they nearly did. Since then, the area has gentrified a lot around the W Hampstead / Kilburn bit.

    As a probably useless anecdote, my neighbour said he had been approached by Keir Starmer in Highgate - very nice apparently, but my neighbour gave him an earful over the mansion tax. Starmer apparently then said he has been hearing that a lot. If it is being said in Holborn and St Pancras, I can imagine it is even more so in H&K
    Thanks for the info. Still doesn't make sense to me whatsoever! I'll be damned if that's a Tory gain on Friday morning!
    Agreed but I don't think you can write it off - the Mansion Tax is the number one issue in London.

    I also think Holborn and SP could be interesting in future elections - the north of the constituency around Kentish Town has gentrified massively in the last five years and KX is now going the same way...!
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    SeanT said:

    That's a classic Sun front page. Kudos. They can still do it when called upon.
    Is it. Ed Miliband chewing a butty. Has that how desperate it has become for the Tories.
  • currystarcurrystar Posts: 1,171
    I have got a feeling the Tories will gain Eastleigh
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    kle4 said:

    Tomorrow's sun front page: Save Our Bacon

    htps://twitter.com/SunPolitics/status/595705535195906048/photo/1

    The personal image attacks weren't working The Sun, for gods sake stop it!
    Harmless and fun,better than the made up front page of the leftwig rag the mirror
  • bondegezoubondegezou Posts: 11,491
    hunchman said:

    acf2310 said:

    @TheKitchenCabinet: Tories very, very optimistic about Cheadle, I hear.

    Would be surprised but stranger things have happened
    hunchman said:

    Don't understand all the activity in Hampstead & Kilburn - the Tories haven't got a chance in a month of Sundays there surely?!

    I think a lot of the Tory optimism is about how in 2010 no-one expected them to take the seat and yet they nearly did. Since then, the area has gentrified a lot around the W Hampstead / Kilburn bit.

    As a probably useless anecdote, my neighbour said he had been approached by Keir Starmer in Highgate - very nice apparently, but my neighbour gave him an earful over the mansion tax. Starmer apparently then said he has been hearing that a lot. If it is being said in Holborn and St Pancras, I can imagine it is even more so in H&K
    Thanks for the info. Still doesn't make sense to me whatsoever! I'll be damned if that's a Tory gain on Friday morning!
    Half my work colleagues seem to live in H&K, while the othe other half are in Hornsey & Wood Green, while I'm stuck in boring, safe H&StP! They're all Labour/considering Green, but then we're a bunch of academics and not remotely representative.

    I will be very surprised if H&K goes blue. It was a 3-way marginal last time, so there's a big LD vote that will have haemorrhaged to Labour, so mansion tax or not, I can't see the Tories winning it now.
  • notmenotme Posts: 3,293

    notme said:

    hunchman said:

    Really confused about this election right now. Look where Ed Miliband was today - Bedford and Warwickshire North! That's their number 1 Tory target for goodness sake. I've never known the polls be so out of line with where the party leaders are visiting. Look at Cameron - he's gone to so many of the Lib Dem target seats they have as well as Hendon today which I'd got as a dead cert Labour gain. Can anyone explain this complete disconnect between the polls and party leader visits?

    Wait until you find out where the Prime Minister is holding his eve of election rally. Will make your head explode.
    Bootle?
    Carlisle
    Thanet S !!??
    Its a Cumbrian seat can't remember which one!!!

    notme said:

    hunchman said:

    Really confused about this election right now. Look where Ed Miliband was today - Bedford and Warwickshire North! That's their number 1 Tory target for goodness sake. I've never known the polls be so out of line with where the party leaders are visiting. Look at Cameron - he's gone to so many of the Lib Dem target seats they have as well as Hendon today which I'd got as a dead cert Labour gain. Can anyone explain this complete disconnect between the polls and party leader visits?

    Wait until you find out where the Prime Minister is holding his eve of election rally. Will make your head explode.
    Bootle?
    Carlisle
    Thanet S !!??
    Its a Cumbrian seat can't remember which one!!!
    Cockermouth?

    Silloth West

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533

    hunchman said:

    acf2310 said:

    @TheKitchenCabinet: Tories very, very optimistic about Cheadle, I hear.

    Would be surprised but stranger things have happened
    hunchman said:

    Don't understand all the activity in Hampstead & Kilburn - the Tories haven't got a chance in a month of Sundays there surely?!

    I think a lot of the Tory optimism is about how in 2010 no-one expected them to take the seat and yet they nearly did. Since then, the area has gentrified a lot around the W Hampstead / Kilburn bit.

    As a probably useless anecdote, my neighbour said he had been approached by Keir Starmer in Highgate - very nice apparently, but my neighbour gave him an earful over the mansion tax. Starmer apparently then said he has been hearing that a lot. If it is being said in Holborn and St Pancras, I can imagine it is even more so in H&K
    Thanks for the info. Still doesn't make sense to me whatsoever! I'll be damned if that's a Tory gain on Friday morning!
    Agreed but I don't think you can write it off - the Mansion Tax is the number one issue in London.

    I also think Holborn and SP could be interesting in future elections - the north of the constituency around Kentish Town has gentrified massively in the last five years and KX is now going the same way...!
    Neither the Tories nor Labour have really gone big on Mansion Tax in the national media. Maybe they have in London markets?
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736

    notme said:

    hunchman said:

    Really confused about this election right now. Look where Ed Miliband was today - Bedford and Warwickshire North! That's their number 1 Tory target for goodness sake. I've never known the polls be so out of line with where the party leaders are visiting. Look at Cameron - he's gone to so many of the Lib Dem target seats they have as well as Hendon today which I'd got as a dead cert Labour gain. Can anyone explain this complete disconnect between the polls and party leader visits?

    Wait until you find out where the Prime Minister is holding his eve of election rally. Will make your head explode.
    Bootle?
    Carlisle
    Thanet S !!??
    Its a Cumbrian seat can't remember which one!!!

    notme said:

    hunchman said:

    Really confused about this election right now. Look where Ed Miliband was today - Bedford and Warwickshire North! That's their number 1 Tory target for goodness sake. I've never known the polls be so out of line with where the party leaders are visiting. Look at Cameron - he's gone to so many of the Lib Dem target seats they have as well as Hendon today which I'd got as a dead cert Labour gain. Can anyone explain this complete disconnect between the polls and party leader visits?

    Wait until you find out where the Prime Minister is holding his eve of election rally. Will make your head explode.
    Bootle?
    Carlisle
    Thanet S !!??
    Its a Cumbrian seat can't remember which one!!!
    Cockermouth?

    BJ says C_________
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    edited May 2015

    SeanT said:

    That's a classic Sun front page. Kudos. They can still do it when called upon.
    Is it. Ed Miliband chewing a butty. Has that how desperate it has become for the Tories.
    Have you seen the mirror front page,how desperate was that.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    Neil said:

    DavidL said:

    Is it just possible that SF might review their long held policy and take their seats in such a shambolic Parliament?

    No, it's not.
    And yet they sit in Stormont - not to mention the "usurper" Dáil Éireann :)
    Damn hypocrites, Sunil. I wouldnt trust them if I were you.

  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704
    antifrank said:

    The papers are full of the post-election negotiations even before most votes have been cast:

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CERfzOAWIAAh4BR.jpg

    The Independent's sub-heading catches the eye - "~Seventy per cent of voters think the SNP should not be allowed to veto English laws". That's going to complicate coalition-building for Ed Miliband.

    And what was Clegg doing saying we could have to do it all again in a few months?

    I take that as an instruction to vote for the big two to gain a conclusive result, not the muddying of the waters that results from a minor party vote.

    Gun, aim at foot Fire.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736

    notme said:

    hunchman said:

    Really confused about this election right now. Look where Ed Miliband was today - Bedford and Warwickshire North! That's their number 1 Tory target for goodness sake. I've never known the polls be so out of line with where the party leaders are visiting. Look at Cameron - he's gone to so many of the Lib Dem target seats they have as well as Hendon today which I'd got as a dead cert Labour gain. Can anyone explain this complete disconnect between the polls and party leader visits?

    Wait until you find out where the Prime Minister is holding his eve of election rally. Will make your head explode.
    Bootle?
    Carlisle
    Thanet S !!??
    Its a Cumbrian seat can't remember which one!!!

    notme said:

    hunchman said:

    Really confused about this election right now. Look where Ed Miliband was today - Bedford and Warwickshire North! That's their number 1 Tory target for goodness sake. I've never known the polls be so out of line with where the party leaders are visiting. Look at Cameron - he's gone to so many of the Lib Dem target seats they have as well as Hendon today which I'd got as a dead cert Labour gain. Can anyone explain this complete disconnect between the polls and party leader visits?

    Wait until you find out where the Prime Minister is holding his eve of election rally. Will make your head explode.
    Bootle?
    Carlisle
    Thanet S !!??
    Its a Cumbrian seat can't remember which one!!!
    Cockermouth?

    Its close but its not right

    I am Roy Walker and I claim my Carlisle
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    edited May 2015
    kle4 said:

    Tomorrow's sun front page: Save Our Bacon

    htps://twitter.com/SunPolitics/status/595705535195906048/photo/1

    The personal image attacks weren't working The Sun, for gods sake stop it!
    The Scum goes personal on Ed. Nice little boost for the core Labour vote to get out. Cheers!
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,477

    SeanT said:

    That's a classic Sun front page. Kudos. They can still do it when called upon.
    Is it. Ed Miliband chewing a butty. Has that how desperate it has become for the Tories.
    Have you see the mirror front page,how desperate was that.
    Yeah, but the Currant Bun has a reputation for great front pages, especially on the eve of an election.

    This one is pants.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820

    It doesn't look as if the UKIP vote is shifting to Tories at all. Well not if any of the polls are anywhere close to right. No EU Referendum in 2017 then.

    If 3% (of the vote) switched Tory-UkIP and 3% of the vote switched UKIP-Tory then you wouldn't see anything at all in the polls - but the voter effectiveness would go way up.

    In this crazy election there could even be Tory-LibDem (as in Sheffield) and LibDem-Tory (in the blue-red marginals) since the LDs lost most of the naturally labour supporters post 2010.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672

    hunchman said:

    acf2310 said:

    @TheKitchenCabinet: Tories very, very optimistic about Cheadle, I hear.

    Would be surprised but stranger things have happened
    hunchman said:

    Don't understand all the activity in Hampstead & Kilburn - the Tories haven't got a chance in a month of Sundays there surely?!

    I think a lot of the Tory optimism is about how in 2010 no-one expected them to take the seat and yet they nearly did. Since then, the area has gentrified a lot around the W Hampstead / Kilburn bit.

    As a probably useless anecdote, my neighbour said he had been approached by Keir Starmer in Highgate - very nice apparently, but my neighbour gave him an earful over the mansion tax. Starmer apparently then said he has been hearing that a lot. If it is being said in Holborn and St Pancras, I can imagine it is even more so in H&K
    Thanks for the info. Still doesn't make sense to me whatsoever! I'll be damned if that's a Tory gain on Friday morning!
    Half my work colleagues seem to live in H&K, while the othe other half are in Hornsey & Wood Green, while I'm stuck in boring, safe H&StP! They're all Labour/considering Green, but then we're a bunch of academics and not remotely representative.

    I will be very surprised if H&K goes blue. It was a 3-way marginal last time, so there's a big LD vote that will have haemorrhaged to Labour, so mansion tax or not, I can't see the Tories winning it now.

    Labour seem reasonably confident about H&K:

    https://richardosley.wordpress.com/2015/05/05/morning-update-05-05-15-do-labour-regard-hampstead-and-kilburn-as-a-marginal/
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,680

    "Tories GOTV operation will be far too thinly spread if they're wasting resouces in NE Derbyshire and Walsall N!"

    In this e-mail shot, they are targeting 346 constituencies in E&W.


  • hunchman said:

    acf2310 said:

    @TheKitchenCabinet: Tories very, very optimistic about Cheadle, I hear.

    Would be surprised but stranger things have happened
    hunchman said:

    Don't understand all the activity in Hampstead & Kilburn - the Tories haven't got a chance in a month of Sundays there surely?!

    I think a lot of the Tory optimism is about how in 2010 no-one expected them to take the seat and yet they nearly did. Since then, the area has gentrified a lot around the W Hampstead / Kilburn bit.

    As a probably useless anecdote, my neighbour said he had been approached by Keir Starmer in Highgate - very nice apparently, but my neighbour gave him an earful over the mansion tax. Starmer apparently then said he has been hearing that a lot. If it is being said in Holborn and St Pancras, I can imagine it is even more so in H&K
    Thanks for the info. Still doesn't make sense to me whatsoever! I'll be damned if that's a Tory gain on Friday morning!
    Agreed but I don't think you can write it off - the Mansion Tax is the number one issue in London.

    I also think Holborn and SP could be interesting in future elections - the north of the constituency around Kentish Town has gentrified massively in the last five years and KX is now going the same way...!
    Neither the Tories nor Labour have really gone big on Mansion Tax in the national media. Maybe they have in London markets?
    The way the Tories have played it (at least in the leaflets that were delivered) were to say: (1) you think you will not be impacted? Look at the average price in the constituency and take the growth rates; (2) some Labour MPs are talking about taking it to £1m and (3) that Labour would tie any Mansion Tax in with a re-evaluation of the Council Tax bands and you are all facing massive increases - funnily enough, the last one had the most impact on me.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736

    SeanT said:

    That's a classic Sun front page. Kudos. They can still do it when called upon.
    Is it. Ed Miliband chewing a butty. Has that how desperate it has become for the Tories.
    Have you seen the mirror front page,how desperate was that.
    Have you seen The Scum front page how desperate was that?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    kle4 said:

    Tomorrow's sun front page: Save Our Bacon

    htps://twitter.com/SunPolitics/status/595705535195906048/photo/1

    The personal image attacks weren't working The Sun, for gods sake stop it!
    The Scum goes personal on Ed. Nice little boost for the core Labour vote to get out. Cheers!
    Kinnock in a lightbulb - how desperate is that ? Oh wait..
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    surbiton said:

    Anorak said:

    Anorak said:

    ComRes voter intention England and Wales:

    Con 35% (+2)
    Lab 32% (-1)
    Lib Dem 9% (+1)
    UKIP 14% (+1)
    Green 4% (-3)
    Others 6% (No change)

    GET IN.

    What's the UK numbers ?
    My mistake. those are UK numbers. E&W: Tories are on 37%, Labour on 33%, UKIP 15%, LD 8%.
    Thanks. Then my effort was not wasted.

    Based on these GB numbers but calculating E&W and Scotland separately, UNS forecast

    [ except 3 adjustments for UKIP ]

    CON 286
    LAB 270
    LD 15
    SNP 53
    GRN 1
    PC 3
    UKIP 3
    SPK 1

    Good score for the Tories ! But UKIP numbers are good. Therefore, keeping CON in check.
    LD not doing well by UNS.

    I have made no individual personal adjustments apart from the 3 UKIP above.
    OK. I have now done it the opposite way. Used the Comres E&W figures first and then matched the GB wide figures [ I have to say the Scotland sub set is garbage ! ]

    Anyway, here goes:

    CON 283
    LAB 278
    LD 16
    SNP 47 [ I doubt this very much ! ]
    GRN 1
    PC 3
    UKIP 3
    SPK 1
  • blakmorerjblakmorerj Posts: 22
    Off topic: I am an counting agent in Edinburgh on Thursday night/Friday morning. Do they usually have screens with the incoming results elsewhere at the count?
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,477



    hunchman said:

    acf2310 said:

    @TheKitchenCabinet: Tories very, very optimistic about Cheadle, I hear.

    Would be surprised but stranger things have happened
    hunchman said:

    Don't understand all the activity in Hampstead & Kilburn - the Tories haven't got a chance in a month of Sundays there surely?!

    I think a lot of the Tory optimism is about how in 2010 no-one expected them to take the seat and yet they nearly did. Since then, the area has gentrified a lot around the W Hampstead / Kilburn bit.

    As a probably useless anecdote, my neighbour said he had been approached by Keir Starmer in Highgate - very nice apparently, but my neighbour gave him an earful over the mansion tax. Starmer apparently then said he has been hearing that a lot. If it is being said in Holborn and St Pancras, I can imagine it is even more so in H&K
    Thanks for the info. Still doesn't make sense to me whatsoever! I'll be damned if that's a Tory gain on Friday morning!
    Agreed but I don't think you can write it off - the Mansion Tax is the number one issue in London.

    I also think Holborn and SP could be interesting in future elections - the north of the constituency around Kentish Town has gentrified massively in the last five years and KX is now going the same way...!
    Neither the Tories nor Labour have really gone big on Mansion Tax in the national media. Maybe they have in London markets?
    It's actually a net vote winner for Labour, even in a place like Hampstead, which is a lot more mixed than those who have never visited tend to think.
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371

    SeanT said:

    That's a classic Sun front page. Kudos. They can still do it when called upon.
    Is it. Ed Miliband chewing a butty. Has that how desperate it has become for the Tories.
    Have you seen the mirror front page,how desperate was that.
    The Mirror should have had the picture of that girl with her head on the desk next to Cameron and put some witty response, yes?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591

    kle4 said:

    Tomorrow's sun front page: Save Our Bacon

    htps://twitter.com/SunPolitics/status/595705535195906048/photo/1

    The personal image attacks weren't working The Sun, for gods sake stop it!
    Harmless and fun,better than the made up front page of the leftwig rag the mirror
    I don't begrudge them their fun, but I think that particular gag has had its time, and has in any case used up its effectiveness, which is what The Sun wants to be right now. But they know their business better than me I guess.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    SeanT said:

    That's a classic Sun front page. Kudos. They can still do it when called upon.
    Is it. Ed Miliband chewing a butty. Has that how desperate it has become for the Tories.
    Have you seen the mirror front page,how desperate was that.
    Have you seen The Scum front page how desperate was that?
    Someone's already beaten you to it.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672

    hunchman said:

    acf2310 said:

    @TheKitchenCabinet: Tories very, very optimistic about Cheadle, I hear.

    Would be surprised but stranger things have happened
    hunchman said:

    Don't understand all the activity in Hampstead & Kilburn - the Tories haven't got a chance in a month of Sundays there surely?!

    I think a lot of the Tory optimism is about how in 2010 no-one expected them to take the seat and yet they nearly did. Since then, the area has gentrified a lot around the W Hampstead / Kilburn bit.

    As a probably useless anecdote, my neighbour said he had been approached by Keir Starmer in Highgate - very nice apparently, but my neighbour gave him an earful over the mansion tax. Starmer apparently then said he has been hearing that a lot. If it is being said in Holborn and St Pancras, I can imagine it is even more so in H&K
    Thanks for the info. Still doesn't make sense to me whatsoever! I'll be damned if that's a Tory gain on Friday morning!
    Agreed but I don't think you can write it off - the Mansion Tax is the number one issue in London.

    I also think Holborn and SP could be interesting in future elections - the north of the constituency around Kentish Town has gentrified massively in the last five years and KX is now going the same way...!

    Very big concentrations of council housing across the constituency and a lot of private tenants on top. It'll be Labour for a long time yet.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Barnesian said:


    "Tories GOTV operation will be far too thinly spread if they're wasting resouces in NE Derbyshire and Walsall N!"

    In this e-mail shot, they are targeting 346 constituencies in E&W.

    They are new to this. Even Plato got excited.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Neil said:

    I'm beginning to think that everyone should vote tactically for the party most likely to win to save us all from the horrible prospect of having to re-run what must be the most goddam awful GE ever before the end of the year.

    Unionists not doing as well as you hope then.

    Bad luck.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Scott_P said:

    notme said:

    Wait until you find out where the Prime Minister is holding his eve of election rally. Will make your head explode.

    Morley and Outwood?
    Neither!!!
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Biggest front page story is non election and in the Daily Record.

    @tedermeatballs: Rangers takeover probe police raid Mike Ashley's HQ http://t.co/0GxHtTPlbB
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,418
    I'm watching "Ballot Monkeys" on E4+1. I'm looking at the front page of the Sun. I'm confused: which is the fictional satire and which is published by adults with mortgages?
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    Dair said:

    Neil said:

    I'm beginning to think that everyone should vote tactically for the party most likely to win to save us all from the horrible prospect of having to re-run what must be the most goddam awful GE ever before the end of the year.

    Unionists not doing as well as you hope then.

    Bad luck.
    You're hilarious.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,477
    SeanT said:

    hunchman said:

    acf2310 said:

    @TheKitchenCabinet: Tories very, very optimistic about Cheadle, I hear.

    Would be surprised but stranger things have happened
    hunchman said:

    Don't understand all the activity in Hampstead & Kilburn - the Tories haven't got a chance in a month of Sundays there surely?!

    I think a lot of the Tory optimism is about how in 2010 no-one expected them to take the seat and yet they nearly did. Since then, the area has gentrified a lot around the W Hampstead / Kilburn bit.

    As a probably useless anecdote, my neighbour said he had been approached by Keir Starmer in Highgate - very nice apparently, but my neighbour gave him an earful over the mansion tax. Starmer apparently then said he has been hearing that a lot. If it is being said in Holborn and St Pancras, I can imagine it is even more so in H&K
    Thanks for the info. Still doesn't make sense to me whatsoever! I'll be damned if that's a Tory gain on Friday morning!
    Half my work colleagues seem to live in H&K, while the othe other half are in Hornsey & Wood Green, while I'm stuck in boring, safe H&StP! They're all Labour/considering Green, but then we're a bunch of academics and not remotely representative.

    I will be very surprised if H&K goes blue. It was a 3-way marginal last time, so there's a big LD vote that will have haemorrhaged to Labour, so mansion tax or not, I can't see the Tories winning it now.
    Sadly (central/north London is my homeland, along with Cornwall) I reckon all these seats will be red. Also Golders Green.

    More happily, I think Cornwall will go almost entirely blue. Only North Cornwall will hold out for the LDs.
    Any hope for Mebyon Kernow , Sean?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    Off topic: I am an counting agent in Edinburgh on Thursday night/Friday morning. Do they usually have screens with the incoming results elsewhere at the count?

    The last time I was at the Edinburgh count (1997) I took a portable TV. IIRC the screens inside just had the local results.

    Take your phone and watch twitter.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    edited May 2015
    notme said:

    hunchman said:

    Really confused about this election right now. Look where Ed Miliband was today - Bedford and Warwickshire North! That's their number 1 Tory target for goodness sake. I've never known the polls be so out of line with where the party leaders are visiting. Look at Cameron - he's gone to so many of the Lib Dem target seats they have as well as Hendon today which I'd got as a dead cert Labour gain. Can anyone explain this complete disconnect between the polls and party leader visits?

    Wait until you find out where the Prime Minister is holding his eve of election rally. Will make your head explode.
    Buckingham or Rochester... natch
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    edited May 2015
    I don't think the Sun Front Page is that good, because everybody has seen the image, its a done joke.

    You have to have something that will make people stop and look, but its a bit like seeing a Mirror headline with Tories Baby Eating Scum or Mail banging on about immigrants.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    TGOHF said:

    Biggest front page story is non election and in the Daily Record.

    @tedermeatballs: Rangers takeover probe police raid Mike Ashley's HQ http://t.co/0GxHtTPlbB

    Surely Rangers can just sell the movie rights of what has happened to them over the last few years to Hollwood in order to keep afloat?

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Hate Islam vote Tory?

    Richard Dawkins (@RichardDawkins)
    05/05/2015 20:24
    I’ve never voted Tory in my life and probably never will. But @Ayaan makes a better case than any I’ve seen. thetimes.co.uk/tto/opinion/co…
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,809
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    That's a classic Sun front page. Kudos. They can still do it when called upon.
    Is it. Ed Miliband chewing a butty. Has that how desperate it has become for the Tories.
    Er, what? This is coming from a supporter of the party that chiselled its enervatingly vacuous pledges into a specially commissioned £30,000 Eight Foot High Limestone Policy Obelisk, to show how *serious* they were about fulfilling its Six Aspirations of Nothingness.

    Really. You spent thirty thousand quid carving "Controls on Immigration" into a slab of stone, in the hope that this might persuade wavering voters who had hitherto seen this entirely meaningless statement merely printed on paper.
    The tragedy for this country is that the vacuous PR drivel that spills from Cameron's maw is no better.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Newsnight Index:

    Con 281
    Lab 266
    SNP 52
    LD 26
    UKIP 1
    Green 1
    Oths 23
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Scott_P said:

    Off topic: I am an counting agent in Edinburgh on Thursday night/Friday morning. Do they usually have screens with the incoming results elsewhere at the count?

    The last time I was at the Edinburgh count (1997) I took a portable TV. IIRC the screens inside just had the local results.

    Take your phone and watch twitter.
    Didn't have you down as a twitter fan?
  • blakmorerjblakmorerj Posts: 22
    Scott_P said:

    Off topic: I am an counting agent in Edinburgh on Thursday night/Friday morning. Do they usually have screens with the incoming results elsewhere at the count?

    The last time I was at the Edinburgh count (1997) I took a portable TV. IIRC the screens inside just had the local results.

    Take your phone and watch twitter.

    Thanks Scott, though I have a feeling the count itself will be exciting enough!
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672



    hunchman said:

    acf2310 said:

    @TheKitchenCabinet: Tories very, very optimistic about Cheadle, I hear.

    Would be surprised but stranger things have happened
    hunchman said:

    Don't understand all the activity in Hampstead & Kilburn - the Tories haven't got a chance in a month of Sundays there surely?!

    I think a lot of the Tory optimism is about how in 2010 no-one expected them to take the seat and yet they nearly did. Since then, the area has gentrified a lot around the W Hampstead / Kilburn bit.

    As a probably useless anecdote, my neighbour said he had been approached by Keir Starmer in Highgate - very nice apparently, but my neighbour gave him an earful over the mansion tax. Starmer apparently then said he has been hearing that a lot. If it is being said in Holborn and St Pancras, I can imagine it is even more so in H&K
    Thanks for the info. Still doesn't make sense to me whatsoever! I'll be damned if that's a Tory gain on Friday morning!
    Agreed but I don't think you can write it off - the Mansion Tax is the number one issue in London.

    I also think Holborn and SP could be interesting in future elections - the north of the constituency around Kentish Town has gentrified massively in the last five years and KX is now going the same way...!
    Neither the Tories nor Labour have really gone big on Mansion Tax in the national media. Maybe they have in London markets?
    It's actually a net vote winner for Labour, even in a place like Hampstead, which is a lot more mixed than those who have never visited tend to think.

    It sure is. My grandparents lived in a flat on a council estate in Swiss Cottage. People only see the large houses, but there are big lumps of social housing across the constituency, like almost all the inner London seats. No wonder the Tories want to sell it off!

  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Sky says Letwin negotiating with LDs before polling day to try and agree a coalition,

    Not very bright (getting found out) anyway
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    Tomorrow's sun front page: Save Our Bacon

    htps://twitter.com/SunPolitics/status/595705535195906048/photo/1

    The personal image attacks weren't working The Sun, for gods sake stop it!
    Harmless and fun,better than the made up front page of the leftwig rag the mirror
    I don't begrudge them their fun, but I think that particular gag has had its time, and has in any case used up its effectiveness, which is what The Sun wants to be right now. But they know their business better than me I guess.
    The picture from his student days would have been better if they had to go down the personally offensive route #sunslipping
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    viewcode said:

    I'm watching "Ballot Monkeys" on E4+1. I'm looking at the front page of the Sun. I'm confused: which is the fictional satire and which is published by adults with mortgages?

    I watched Mavericks on C4, about the brilliant footballers from the seventies and eighties.

    I've seen play live virtually every top player since 1963, including Pele, and the young Alan Hudson is the best player I have ever seen bar George Best.
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    SeanT said:

    Awful about this senior IRA commander being killed. And in cold blood, too. Tragic. Really. Tragic. What is the world coming to.

    *opens bottle of Waitrose Cava*


    The cops have their suspect. They've been searching for the same fella all day.
  • Oliver_PBOliver_PB Posts: 397
    edited May 2015



    hunchman said:

    acf2310 said:

    @TheKitchenCabinet: Tories very, very optimistic about Cheadle, I hear.

    Would be surprised but stranger things have happened
    hunchman said:

    Don't understand all the activity in Hampstead & Kilburn - the Tories haven't got a chance in a month of Sundays there surely?!

    I think a lot of the Tory optimism is about how in 2010 no-one expected them to take the seat and yet they nearly did. Since then, the area has gentrified a lot around the W Hampstead / Kilburn bit.

    As a probably useless anecdote, my neighbour said he had been approached by Keir Starmer in Highgate - very nice apparently, but my neighbour gave him an earful over the mansion tax. Starmer apparently then said he has been hearing that a lot. If it is being said in Holborn and St Pancras, I can imagine it is even more so in H&K
    Thanks for the info. Still doesn't make sense to me whatsoever! I'll be damned if that's a Tory gain on Friday morning!
    Agreed but I don't think you can write it off - the Mansion Tax is the number one issue in London.

    I also think Holborn and SP could be interesting in future elections - the north of the constituency around Kentish Town has gentrified massively in the last five years and KX is now going the same way...!
    Neither the Tories nor Labour have really gone big on Mansion Tax in the national media. Maybe they have in London markets?
    It's actually a net vote winner for Labour, even in a place like Hampstead, which is a lot more mixed than those who have never visited tend to think.
    Indeed, I suspect the Tories have gone quiet on the mansion tax because it polls well, even among groups that you might not necessarily expect.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,803
    edited May 2015

    hunchman said:

    acf2310 said:

    @TheKitchenCabinet: Tories very, very optimistic about Cheadle, I hear.

    Would be surprised but stranger things have happened
    hunchman said:

    Don't understand all the activity in Hampstead & Kilburn - the Tories haven't got a chance in a month of Sundays there surely?!

    I think a lot of the Tory optimism is about how in 2010 no-one expected them to take the seat and yet they nearly did. Since then, the area has gentrified a lot around the W Hampstead / Kilburn bit.

    As a probably useless anecdote, my neighbour said he had been approached by Keir Starmer in Highgate - very nice apparently, but my neighbour gave him an earful over the mansion tax. Starmer apparently then said he has been hearing that a lot. If it is being said in Holborn and St Pancras, I can imagine it is even more so in H&K
    Thanks for the info. Still doesn't make sense to me whatsoever! I'll be damned if that's a Tory gain on Friday morning!
    Agreed but I don't think you can write it off - the Mansion Tax is the number one issue in London.

    I also think Holborn and SP could be interesting in future elections - the north of the constituency around Kentish Town has gentrified massively in the last five years and KX is now going the same way...!
    The following is a list of constituencies which Labour has lost because of metropolitan gentrification during the last 25 years:





  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    edited May 2015

    Sky says Letwin negotiating with LDs before polling day to try and agree a coalition,

    Not very bright (getting found out) anyway

    Nobody told Simon Hughes. He was asked today and he was 100% on no negotiating, no talks, etc. I hope he wasn't telling porkie pies.
  • jahodgesjahodges Posts: 12
    Can anyone ferret out decimal point results for today's polls. I recall recently there was a poll where a 4 % lead in fact had something like a decimal .6 rounded up then a .4 rounded down when in fact the consistently applied decimal lead would have been something like 3.1% which should have been rounded to 3% really..
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,653

    hunchman said:

    acf2310 said:

    @TheKitchenCabinet: Tories very, very optimistic about Cheadle, I hear.

    Would be surprised but stranger things have happened
    hunchman said:

    Don't understand all the activity in Hampstead & Kilburn - the Tories haven't got a chance in a month of Sundays there surely?!

    I think a lot of the Tory optimism is about how in 2010 no-one expected them to take the seat and yet they nearly did. Since then, the area has gentrified a lot around the W Hampstead / Kilburn bit.

    As a probably useless anecdote, my neighbour said he had been approached by Keir Starmer in Highgate - very nice apparently, but my neighbour gave him an earful over the mansion tax. Starmer apparently then said he has been hearing that a lot. If it is being said in Holborn and St Pancras, I can imagine it is even more so in H&K
    Thanks for the info. Still doesn't make sense to me whatsoever! I'll be damned if that's a Tory gain on Friday morning!
    Agreed but I don't think you can write it off - the Mansion Tax is the number one issue in London.

    I also think Holborn and SP could be interesting in future elections - the north of the constituency around Kentish Town has gentrified massively in the last five years and KX is now going the same way...!
    The following is a list of constituencies which Labour has lost because of metropolitan gentrification during the last 25 years:





    To be fair it looks more like:
    Wandsworth
    Eh
    That's it
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    edited May 2015
    Y0kel said:

    SeanT said:

    Awful about this senior IRA commander being killed. And in cold blood, too. Tragic. Really. Tragic. What is the world coming to.

    *opens bottle of Waitrose Cava*


    The cops have their suspect. They've been searching for the same fella all day.
    Edited to remove unwise speculation about an ongoing case.

  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,803

    Sky says Letwin negotiating with LDs before polling day to try and agree a coalition,

    Not very bright (getting found out) anyway

    Letwin doesn't do real world.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Neil said:

    TGOHF said:

    Biggest front page story is non election and in the Daily Record.

    @tedermeatballs: Rangers takeover probe police raid Mike Ashley's HQ http://t.co/0GxHtTPlbB

    Surely Rangers can just sell the movie rights of what has happened to them over the last few years to Hollwood in order to keep afloat?

    Unfunnily enough the crooks have had that too..

    http://news.stv.tv/west-central/221738-craig-whyte-agrees-to-sell-film-rights-to-story-of-rangers-collapse/
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,477
    And with NOM now touching 1.06, I'm off to bed.

    Nite all.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,690

    I don't think the Sun Front Page is that good, because everybody has seen the image, its a done joke.

    You have to have something that will make people stop and look, but its a bit like seeing a Mirror headline with Tories Baby Eating Scum or Mail banging on about immigrants.

    I think these stupid personal attacks add nothing to our democracy or our media. They are not even funny.

    Monkey Ballots today or Spitting Image in the past are/were clever and incisive. They were both funny and able to make a serious point even if one didn't agree with the point they were making.

    The Sun front pages are just sad and bitter. I am not even sure they will change a single vote (at least I hope they won't even though I can't stand Miliband).

    People call the Sun a comic. Personally I think that is an insult to comics.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,712

    And with NOM now touching 1.06, I'm off to bed.

    Nite all.

    Been topping up all week.

    Goodnight all too.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    SeanT said:

    SeanT said:

    That's a classic Sun front page. Kudos. They can still do it when called upon.
    Is it. Ed Miliband chewing a butty. Has that how desperate it has become for the Tories.
    Er, what? This is coming from a supporter of the party that chiselled its enervatingly vacuous pledges into a specially commissioned £30,000 Eight Foot High Limestone Policy Obelisk, to show how *serious* they were about fulfilling its Six Aspirations of Nothingness.

    Really. You spent thirty thousand quid carving "Controls on Immigration" into a slab of stone, in the hope that this might persuade wavering voters who had hitherto seen this entirely meaningless statement merely printed on paper.
    A £30k limestone pledge that has probably been turned into chuckies already.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    TGOHF said:


    Neil said:

    TGOHF said:

    Biggest front page story is non election and in the Daily Record.

    @tedermeatballs: Rangers takeover probe police raid Mike Ashley's HQ http://t.co/0GxHtTPlbB

    Surely Rangers can just sell the movie rights of what has happened to them over the last few years to Hollwood in order to keep afloat?

    Unfunnily enough the crooks have had that too..

    http://news.stv.tv/west-central/221738-craig-whyte-agrees-to-sell-film-rights-to-story-of-rangers-collapse/
    In *what* world is that not funny? It's freakin' hilarious!

  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,803
    AndyJS said:

    Newsnight Index:

    Con 281
    Lab 266
    SNP 52
    LD 26
    UKIP 1
    Green 1
    Oths 23

    Ungovernable.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Neil said:

    Y0kel said:

    SeanT said:

    Awful about this senior IRA commander being killed. And in cold blood, too. Tragic. Really. Tragic. What is the world coming to.

    *opens bottle of Waitrose Cava*


    The cops have their suspect. They've been searching for the same fella all day.
    Edited to remove unwise speculation about an ongoing case.

    Yesterday?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    edited May 2015
    AndyJS said:

    Newsnight Index:

    Con 281
    Lab 266
    SNP 52
    LD 26
    UKIP 1
    Green 1
    Oths 23

    I believe that has been showing a little bit of a growing gap for the Tories in the past week. The Tories did have a 20+ lead, then they changed their methodology and the gap got down to single figures and now it is at 15.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,712

    Sky says Letwin negotiating with LDs before polling day to try and agree a coalition,

    Not very bright (getting found out) anyway

    Why Letwin is viewed as an éminence grise completely baffles me.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    SeanT said:

    I don't think the Sun Front Page is that good, because everybody has seen the image, its a done joke.

    You have to have something that will make people stop and look, but its a bit like seeing a Mirror headline with Tories Baby Eating Scum or Mail banging on about immigrants.

    But they haven't seen it. Only politically attuned online social media-ish people have seen the bacon butty photo. People like us.

    For most Sun readers it will be a surprise. I say this not snobbishly, for most people life is too busy and hard-scrabble to worry about politics.
    I would normally agree, like Ed Stone...but that picture...that picture has been used so many times.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    I don't think the Sun Front Page is that good, because everybody has seen the image, its a done joke.

    You have to have something that will make people stop and look, but its a bit like seeing a Mirror headline with Tories Baby Eating Scum or Mail banging on about immigrants.

    I think these stupid personal attacks add nothing to our democracy or our media. They are not even funny.

    Monkey Ballots today or Spitting Image in the past are/were clever and incisive. They were both funny and able to make a serious point even if one didn't agree with the point they were making.

    The Sun front pages are just sad and bitter. I am not even sure they will change a single vote (at least I hope they won't even though I can't stand Miliband).

    People call the Sun a comic. Personally I think that is an insult to comics.
    Kinnock in a lightbulb defined the 1992 election - iconic.


    A lot of faux snobbery about.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    Sky says Letwin negotiating with LDs before polling day to try and agree a coalition,

    Not very bright (getting found out) anyway

    Letwin doesn't do real world.
    Letwin is a gift that keeps on giving,was it his idea for the poll tax ?

  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,803

    Sky says Letwin negotiating with LDs before polling day to try and agree a coalition,

    Not very bright (getting found out) anyway

    Letwin doesn't do real world.
    Letwin is a gift that keeps on giving,was it his idea for the poll tax ?

    Yes

    Letwin is certainly a gift for the local burglars.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    SeanT said:

    I don't think the Sun Front Page is that good, because everybody has seen the image, its a done joke.

    You have to have something that will make people stop and look, but its a bit like seeing a Mirror headline with Tories Baby Eating Scum or Mail banging on about immigrants.

    But they haven't seen it. Only politically attuned online social media-ish people have seen the bacon butty photo. People like us.

    For most Sun readers it will be a surprise. I say this not snobbishly, for most people life is too busy and hard-scrabble to worry about politics.
    I would normally agree, like Ed Stone...but that picture...that picture has been used so many times.
    Keeping their best one for tomorrow ?
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,929
    Amzing that the Newsnight index put the DUP and Lib Dems in the Tory column. WTF?????? Nothing those parties are saying publicly has suggested they would favour the blues over the reds. However the BBC has to be 'impartial' so can't point out that the Tories are billy no mates.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Neil said:

    Y0kel said:

    SeanT said:

    Awful about this senior IRA commander being killed. And in cold blood, too. Tragic. Really. Tragic. What is the world coming to.

    *opens bottle of Waitrose Cava*


    The cops have their suspect. They've been searching for the same fella all day.
    Edited to remove unwise speculation about an ongoing case.

    Damn, you greens really have your finger on the pulse in NI.

    Unless you're lying.
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    Neil said:

    Y0kel said:

    SeanT said:

    Awful about this senior IRA commander being killed. And in cold blood, too. Tragic. Really. Tragic. What is the world coming to.

    *opens bottle of Waitrose Cava*


    The cops have their suspect. They've been searching for the same fella all day.
    Edited to remove unwise speculation about an ongoing case.

    Belfast is a small town, its hard to miss things if you know what direction to turn your head.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,803

    Sky says Letwin negotiating with LDs before polling day to try and agree a coalition,

    Not very bright (getting found out) anyway

    Why Letwin is viewed as an éminence grise completely baffles me.
    Ditto.

    I'm sure he's a nice bloke in an unworldy professor sort of way.

    But would anyone here want Letwin to manage their own affairs ?
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Would have though the Sun would have gone all-out on Anti-Labour TV - but probably their clientèle couldn't say what type of seat they were voting in.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    Sky says Letwin negotiating with LDs before polling day to try and agree a coalition,

    Not very bright (getting found out) anyway

    Letwin doesn't do real world.
    Letwin is a gift that keeps on giving,was it his idea for the poll tax ?

    Yes

    Letwin is certainly a gift for the local burglars.
    Or Punch in face if he goes to Sheffield ;-)

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-south-yorkshire-12972517
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341

    Amzing that the Newsnight index put the DUP and Lib Dems in the Tory column. WTF?????? Nothing those parties are saying publicly has suggested they would favour the blues over the reds. However the BBC has to be 'impartial' so can't point out that the Tories are billy no mates.

    Apart from supporting an EU referendum.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    TGOHF said:


    Neil said:

    TGOHF said:

    Biggest front page story is non election and in the Daily Record.

    @tedermeatballs: Rangers takeover probe police raid Mike Ashley's HQ http://t.co/0GxHtTPlbB

    Surely Rangers can just sell the movie rights of what has happened to them over the last few years to Hollwood in order to keep afloat?

    Unfunnily enough the crooks have had that too..

    http://news.stv.tv/west-central/221738-craig-whyte-agrees-to-sell-film-rights-to-story-of-rangers-collapse/
    Is a single one of those companies still solvent, which I have been led to believe have alleged links to Craig Whyte. The wash has still to come out on this. Phil Three Names must be waiting for his knock at the door.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @ThatNeilMartin: @afneil Speaking of rude, based on relentless, wall-to-wall exposure to DP, I came up with this. http://t.co/EL39vvsAOm
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    Sky says Letwin negotiating with LDs before polling day to try and agree a coalition,

    Not very bright (getting found out) anyway

    Letwin doesn't do real world.
    Letwin is a gift that keeps on giving,was it his idea for the poll tax ?

    Yes

    Letwin is certainly a gift for the local burglars.
    Or Punch in face if he goes to Sheffield ;-)

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-south-yorkshire-12972517
    Or gift to the Russians ;-)

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2011/oct/14/oliver-letwin-investigation-documents-bin
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Andrew Neil (@afneil)
    05/05/2015 23:21
    Tomorrow's front pages show British press at partisan worst. All pretence of separation between news and opinion gone, even in "qualities".
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672

    Amzing that the Newsnight index put the DUP and Lib Dems in the Tory column. WTF?????? Nothing those parties are saying publicly has suggested they would favour the blues over the reds. However the BBC has to be 'impartial' so can't point out that the Tories are billy no mates.

    The LDs have done it once and will do it again. The DUP will go to the highest bidder!

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    edited May 2015

    Sky says Letwin negotiating with LDs before polling day to try and agree a coalition,

    Not very bright (getting found out) anyway

    Why Letwin is viewed as an éminence grise completely baffles me.
    Ditto.

    I'm sure he's a nice bloke in an unworldy professor sort of way.

    But would anyone here want Letwin to manage their own affairs ?
    He is a bit like a right wing Ed Miliband...you could see the bumbling disaster wandering around the hallowed halls of an academic institution*, reading some texts and then thinking up some crazy ideas that would never work in the real world, but for gods sake don't let him near anything in the actual real world.

    * which of course he did.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341

    Sky says Letwin negotiating with LDs before polling day to try and agree a coalition,

    Not very bright (getting found out) anyway

    Any deal would have been pre-agreed by the Quad months ago, unless we're assuming people who've worked hand in glove for five years are completely thick and unable to see a few months ahead.


  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Dair said:

    TGOHF said:


    Neil said:

    TGOHF said:

    Biggest front page story is non election and in the Daily Record.

    @tedermeatballs: Rangers takeover probe police raid Mike Ashley's HQ http://t.co/0GxHtTPlbB

    Surely Rangers can just sell the movie rights of what has happened to them over the last few years to Hollwood in order to keep afloat?

    Unfunnily enough the crooks have had that too..

    http://news.stv.tv/west-central/221738-craig-whyte-agrees-to-sell-film-rights-to-story-of-rangers-collapse/
    Is a single one of those companies still solvent, which I have been led to believe have alleged links to Craig Whyte. The wash has still to come out on this. Phil Three Names must be waiting for his knock at the door.
    He's just a gullible stooge. Mike Ashley's door getting a chap is big news - hope his share price isn't affected , heart of stone etc..
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,803
    EPG said:

    hunchman said:

    acf2310 said:

    @TheKitchenCabinet: Tories very, very optimistic about Cheadle, I hear.

    Would be surprised but stranger things have happened
    hunchman said:

    Don't understand all the activity in Hampstead & Kilburn - the Tories haven't got a chance in a month of Sundays there surely?!

    I think a lot of the Tory optimism is about how in 2010 no-one expected them to take the seat and yet they nearly did. Since then, the area has gentrified a lot around the W Hampstead / Kilburn bit.

    As a probably useless anecdote, my neighbour said he had been approached by Keir Starmer in Highgate - very nice apparently, but my neighbour gave him an earful over the mansion tax. Starmer apparently then said he has been hearing that a lot. If it is being said in Holborn and St Pancras, I can imagine it is even more so in H&K
    Thanks for the info. Still doesn't make sense to me whatsoever! I'll be damned if that's a Tory gain on Friday morning!
    Agreed but I don't think you can write it off - the Mansion Tax is the number one issue in London.

    I also think Holborn and SP could be interesting in future elections - the north of the constituency around Kentish Town has gentrified massively in the last five years and KX is now going the same way...!
    The following is a list of constituencies which Labour has lost because of metropolitan gentrification during the last 25 years:





    To be fair it looks more like:
    Wandsworth
    Eh
    That's it
    Putney went Conservative in 1979 (as did Fulham), Battersea went Conservative in 1987.

    Wandsworth borough as a whole swung strongly to the Conservatives during the 1980s.

    Interestingly Labour did well in Wandsworth in 2014 - as they did in Hammersmith & Fulham borough.

    There's a limit to the effects of gentrification and excessive gentrification damages the Conservatives - replacing working class voters with middle class voters helped the Conservatives but when those middle class Conservative voters are replaced by rich foreign bankers (or even richer foreign oligarchs) the effect is pro-Labour.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2015

    AndyJS said:

    Newsnight Index:

    Con 281
    Lab 266
    SNP 52
    LD 26
    UKIP 1
    Green 1
    Oths 23

    Ungovernable.
    IMO another election before Christmas would be fun. Turnout would drop by at least 10% though probably.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917

    Amzing that the Newsnight index put the DUP and Lib Dems in the Tory column. WTF?????? Nothing those parties are saying publicly has suggested they would favour the blues over the reds. However the BBC has to be 'impartial' so can't point out that the Tories are billy no mates.

    The Lib Dems will go with whichever is the biggest party in terms of seats or who can realistically form a working government. So that could quite well be the Tories.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,803
    Dair said:

    Neil said:

    Y0kel said:

    SeanT said:

    Awful about this senior IRA commander being killed. And in cold blood, too. Tragic. Really. Tragic. What is the world coming to.

    *opens bottle of Waitrose Cava*


    The cops have their suspect. They've been searching for the same fella all day.
    Edited to remove unwise speculation about an ongoing case.

    Damn, you greens really have your finger on the pulse in NI.

    Unless you're lying.
    I don't know what Neil was speculating about but he's certainly one of the PBers I would trust to tell the truth.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,870
    I'd have gone with an Edstone image. The utter poverty of ambition of those ghasty 'pledges' is actually a politically serious point. They've chosen to go with a more visceral approach that this deeply unfortunate looking man must never be Prime Minister.

  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983

    Dair said:

    Neil said:

    Y0kel said:

    SeanT said:

    Awful about this senior IRA commander being killed. And in cold blood, too. Tragic. Really. Tragic. What is the world coming to.

    *opens bottle of Waitrose Cava*


    The cops have their suspect. They've been searching for the same fella all day.
    Edited to remove unwise speculation about an ongoing case.

    Damn, you greens really have your finger on the pulse in NI.

    Unless you're lying.
    I don't know what Neil was speculating about but he's certainly one of the PBers I would trust to tell the truth.
    Dair thinks I'm an Ulster Unionist, a_r. It's best to just play along.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533

    I'd have gone with an Edstone image. The utter poverty of ambition of those ghasty 'pledges' is actually a politically serious point. They've chosen to go with a more visceral approach that this deeply unfortunate looking man must never be Prime Minister.

    Ed took the idea of a blank piece of paper and committed it to stone...but realised he had to put something, anything on it...it is 8ft high after all!
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    isam said:

    Andrew Neil (@afneil)
    05/05/2015 23:21
    Tomorrow's front pages show British press at partisan worst. All pretence of separation between news and opinion gone, even in "qualities".

    Wow you posted something of value.

    Well done.
This discussion has been closed.