Just had an e-mail from William Hague (ahem) asking me on GOTV on Thursday, which would seem like a good proxy for where the Conservatives are defending or think they can take seats.
The following came back within 25 miles of N London:
Finchley / Golders Green Sutton and Cheam Enfield North Thurrock Twickenham Hendon Battersea Stevenage Watford Ealing C Harrow East Ilford North Harrow West S Basildon / E Thurrock Brentford / Isleworth Hampstead and Kilburn Croydon Central Kingston and Surbiton
So no Carshalton but seems like the Conservatives still think they can bump off Vince (despite Geoffrey's endorsement) and take H&K.
I then thought why not do round my parents in Manchester and then upped it to 100 miles. The following came back:
Pendle Pudsey Halesowen / Rowley Regis Dudley North Lincoln Cannock Chase Chester Dudley South Northampton North Hazel Grove Nuneaton Dewsbury Erewash Birmingham Northfield Bury North Blackpool North Stockton South Loughborough Middlesborough South / E Cleveland Sherwood Solihull Keighley Halifax Telford Warrington South Colne Valley Elmet and Rothwell Louth and Horncastle Derby North High Peak Morley and Outwood Corby Wirral West Morecame and Lunesdale Wolverhampton SE Rossendale and Darwen Sherwood Amber Valley Cheadle Lancaster and Fleetwood Weaver Vale Boston and Skegness NE Derbyshire N Warwickshire Walsall North
Not sure how these correspond to the 40/40 strategy but a few individual seats sprung to mind: (1) they think they can still take Ed B; (2) was surprised at Cheadle, which I had thought would be very likely LD; (3) no mention of Chorley, which some had mentioned as a possible Con gain from Labour; (4) North West strategy all about holding seats but the Conservatives think they can take several from Labour in the West Midlands and a few in Yorkshire.
Dair About halfway through on ITV2+1, so far he has been speaking to the leader of the Liberal Democats and not been certain who the PM is, thought 1305 was 2,000 years ago and flirted with a Sky reporter and Isabel Hardman and been on This Week. After the ads he meets Ed
Not sure the Tories will be very happy with the Daily Mail...Guide to keeping Red Ed out, with a massive headline about how long it can take to get a GP's appointment.
Arf, don't vote Labour the sky will fall in, oh by the way your fecked if you want to see a GP, did we forget to tell you the NHS is safe in Tory hands. Great stuff.
Just had an e-mail from William Hague (ahem) asking me on GOTV on Thursday, which would seem like a good proxy for where the Conservatives are defending or think they can take seats.
The following came back within 25 miles of N London:
Finchley / Golders Green Sutton and Cheam Enfield North Thurrock Twickenham Hendon Battersea Stevenage Watford Ealing C Harrow East Ilford North Harrow West S Basildon / E Thurrock Brentford / Isleworth Hampstead and Kilburn Croydon Central Kingston and Surbiton
So no Carshalton but seems like the Conservatives still think they can bump off Vince (despite Geoffrey's endorsement) and take H&K.
I then thought why not do round my parents in Manchester and then upped it to 100 miles. The following came back:
Pendle Pudsey Halesowen / Rowley Regis Dudley North Lincoln Cannock Chase Chester Dudley South Northampton North Hazel Grove Nuneaton Dewsbury Erewash Birmingham Northfield Bury North Blackpool North Stockton South Loughborough Middlesborough South / E Cleveland Sherwood Solihull Keighley Halifax Telford Warrington South Colne Valley Elmet and Rothwell Louth and Horncastle Derby North High Peak Morley and Outwood Corby Wirral West Morecame and Lunesdale Wolverhampton SE Rossendale and Darwen Sherwood Amber Valley Cheadle Lancaster and Fleetwood Weaver Vale Boston and Skegness NE Derbyshire N Warwickshire Walsall North
Not sure how these correspond to the 40/40 strategy but a few individual seats sprung to mind: (1) they think they can still take Ed B; (2) was surprised at Cheadle, which I had thought would be very likely LD; (3) no mention of Chorley, which some had mentioned as a possible Con gain from Labour; (4) North West strategy all about holding seats but the Conservatives think they can take several from Labour in the West Midlands and a few in Yorkshire.
Where is Compouter... I will be surprised if the racist party get 14% I think it will be under 10%.. There's lots of BNP'ers hiding in UKIP or at least that seems to be the case.
Even if every 2010 BNPer were currently saying they were going to vote UKIP and they all changed their minds between now and Thursday, it still wouldn't make the UKIP score drop from 14 to under 10 you imbecile
Tut tut, getting aggressive.. the truth hurts... too many racists in UKIP, you must know quite a few yourself..
Sad lonely old man. Poor you
not lonely and not old, sad in one respect as my wife died, but hey you keep shilling for your racist party.. History teaches us NOT to trust parties like UKIP, .
Don't fish for sympathy... Baseless insults make you a sad fool
History of your posts teaches us you are a clueless cretin
Not sure the Tories will be very happy with the Daily Mail...Guide to keeping Red Ed out, with a massive headline about how long it can take to get a GP's appointment.
Didn't they juxtapose a heavy attack on Ed M the other day with a huge headline about how this government has killed thousands with salt or something? I get the feeling the headline writers all over the place are a little confused about how much they can and can not be on message. The 'for sanity's sake' please seems a little desperate though - like they know it could very easily happen because the people are crazy.
Re the Mirror Headline on Major - it's surely he's been caught out in a spectacular way or his words are twisted, usual sort of thing, but I'm a little unclear on the purpose. I guess it shows the Tories are divided, but it's not like the Mirror editorial likes Major or thinks its readers should listen to him, right?
Everyone who said UKIP wouldn't end up causing the Tories to lose office is looking a bit silly at the moment, because that's precisely the position as things stand.
This was very obvious to some of us going back several years. Of course, CCHQ knew best...
Just had an e-mail from William Hague (ahem) asking me on GOTV on Thursday, which would seem like a good proxy for where the Conservatives are defending or think they can take seats.
The following came back within 25 miles of N London:
Finchley / Golders Green Sutton and Cheam Enfield North Thurrock Twickenham Hendon Battersea Stevenage Watford Ealing C Harrow East Ilford North Harrow West S Basildon / E Thurrock Brentford / Isleworth Hampstead and Kilburn Croydon Central Kingston and Surbiton
So no Carshalton but seems like the Conservatives still think they can bump off Vince (despite Geoffrey's endorsement) and take H&K.
I then thought why not do round my parents in Manchester and then upped it to 100 miles. The following came back:
Pendle Pudsey Halesowen / Rowley Regis Dudley North Lincoln Cannock Chase Chester Dudley South Northampton North Hazel Grove Nuneaton Dewsbury Erewash Birmingham Northfield Bury North Blackpool North Stockton South Loughborough Middlesborough South / E Cleveland Sherwood Solihull Keighley Halifax Telford Warrington South Colne Valley Elmet and Rothwell Louth and Horncastle Derby North High Peak Morley and Outwood Corby Wirral West Morecame and Lunesdale Wolverhampton SE Rossendale and Darwen Sherwood Amber Valley Cheadle Lancaster and Fleetwood Weaver Vale Boston and Skegness NE Derbyshire N Warwickshire Walsall North
Not sure how these correspond to the 40/40 strategy but a few individual seats sprung to mind: (1) they think they can still take Ed B; (2) was surprised at Cheadle, which I had thought would be very likely LD; (3) no mention of Chorley, which some had mentioned as a possible Con gain from Labour; (4) North West strategy all about holding seats but the Conservatives think they can take several from Labour in the West Midlands and a few in Yorkshire.
Not sure how much of this is new / illuminating.
The Lab ppc in Cheadle has been impressive in hustings and picked up some support - this can only have come from LDs. Weirdly, we've no Green candidate though not sure what that means, if anything. Still can only really see an LD win though, the Tory candidate is disappointingly (for the blues) lightweight.
Just had an e-mail from William Hague (ahem) asking me on GOTV on Thursday, which would seem like a good proxy for where the Conservatives are defending or think they can take seats.
Not sure how these correspond to the 40/40 strategy but a few individual seats sprung to mind: (1) they think they can still take Ed B; (2) was surprised at Cheadle, which I had thought would be very likely LD; (3) no mention of Chorley, which some had mentioned as a possible Con gain from Labour; (4) North West strategy all about holding seats but the Conservatives think they can take several from Labour in the West Midlands and a few in Yorkshire.
Not sure how much of this is new / illuminating.
I'm surprised they aren't getting people to GOTV in Crewe and Nantwich.
Not sure the Tories will be very happy with the Daily Mail...Guide to keeping Red Ed out, with a massive headline about how long it can take to get a GP's appointment.
Didn't they juxtapose a heavy attack on Ed M the other day with a huge headline about how this government has killed thousands with salt or something? I get the feeling the headline writers all over the place are a little confused about how much they can and can not be on message. The 'for sanity's sake' please seems a little desperate though - like they know it could very easily happen because the people are crazy.
Re the Mirror Headline on Major - it's surely he's been caught out in a spectacular way or his words are twisted, usual sort of thing, but I'm a little unclear on the purpose. I guess it shows the Tories are divided, but it's not like the Mirror editorial likes Major or thinks its readers should listen to him, right?
Mirror headline appears to be from stuff he said while speaking at the Tory Reform Group annual dinner, but they are twisted....e.g.
“We need to acknowledge the fact we have a pretty substantial underclass and there are parts of our country where we have people who have not worked for two generations and whose children do not expect to work."
Well that is just stating fact and a fact that has existed for many many years...as he says himself...but Mirror equate that to Major saying "Tory education policy has failed".
Just had an e-mail from William Hague (ahem) asking me on GOTV on Thursday, which would seem like a good proxy for where the Conservatives are defending or think they can take seats.
The following came back within 25 miles of N London:
Finchley / Golders Green Sutton and Cheam Enfield North Thurrock Twickenham Hendon Battersea Stevenage Watford Ealing C Harrow East Ilford North Harrow West S Basildon / E Thurrock Brentford / Isleworth Hampstead and Kilburn Croydon Central Kingston and Surbiton
So no Carshalton but seems like the Conservatives still think they can bump off Vince (despite Geoffrey's endorsement) and take H&K.
I then thought why not do round my parents in Manchester and then upped it to 100 miles. The following came back:
Pendle Pudsey Halesowen / Rowley Regis Dudley North Lincoln Cannock Chase Chester Dudley South Northampton North Hazel Grove Nuneaton Dewsbury Erewash Birmingham Northfield Bury North Blackpool North Stockton South Loughborough Middlesborough South / E Cleveland Sherwood Solihull Keighley Halifax Telford Warrington South Colne Valley Elmet and Rothwell Louth and Horncastle Derby North High Peak Morley and Outwood Corby Wirral West Morecame and Lunesdale Wolverhampton SE Rossendale and Darwen Sherwood Amber Valley Cheadle Lancaster and Fleetwood Weaver Vale Boston and Skegness NE Derbyshire N Warwickshire Walsall North
Not sure how these correspond to the 40/40 strategy but a few individual seats sprung to mind: (1) they think they can still take Ed B; (2) was surprised at Cheadle, which I had thought would be very likely LD; (3) no mention of Chorley, which some had mentioned as a possible Con gain from Labour; (4) North West strategy all about holding seats but the Conservatives think they can take several from Labour in the West Midlands and a few in Yorkshire.
Not sure how much of this is new / illuminating.
Wolverhampton SW rather than SE surely!
Whoops, yes! Hope nobody did a bet on WSE after that post !
Closest election for a generation, no doubt. Exciting stuff.
I will laugh if Labour do a bit better in Scotland than polled, rendering the Tories laughable "legitimacy" nonsense moot. It really wouldn't take much.
The right-wing press is becoming increasingly unhinged and desperate, which is quite amusing. That being said, it's somewhat painful seeing what Murdoch has done to The Times.
They've all gone a little beserk. Maybe because they are not making the difference they have in the past. If there is a second GE, what more will they have to throw at Ed?
When YouGov are shown to be totally right they'll probably deserve an apology for all the annoyance at their stability they get every night. But they can keep on waiting for that - I need entertainment, YouGov!
Everyone who said UKIP wouldn't end up causing the Tories to lose office is looking a bit silly at the moment, because that's precisely the position as things stand.
Not at all. If the Tories lose office the only ones to blame will be the Tories themselves. The idea that those UKIP voters would vote Tory if UKIP didn't exist is frankly fatuous.
Closest election for a generation, no doubt. Exciting stuff.
I will laugh if Labour do a bit better in Scotland than polled, rendering the Tories laughable "legitimacy" nonsense moot. It really wouldn't take much.
The right-wing press is becoming increasingly unhinged and desperate, which is quite amusing. That being said, it's somewhat painful seeing what Murdoch has done to The Times.
They've all gone a little beserk. Maybe because they are not making the difference they have in the past. If there is a second GE, what more will they have to throw at Ed?
The Scum Election Day Front Page - Ed Miliband are my hamster
Closest election for a generation, no doubt. Exciting stuff.
I will laugh if Labour do a bit better in Scotland than polled, rendering the Tories laughable "legitimacy" nonsense moot. It really wouldn't take much.
The right-wing press is becoming increasingly unhinged and desperate, which is quite amusing. That being said, it's somewhat painful seeing what Murdoch has done to The Times.
Unhinged really is the word. If Ed does end up as PM he may just have a few scores to settle.
Really confused about this election right now. Look where Ed Miliband was today - Bedford and Warwickshire North! That's their number 1 Tory target for goodness sake. I've never known the polls be so out of line with where the party leaders are visiting. Look at Cameron - he's gone to so many of the Lib Dem target seats they have as well as Hendon today which I'd got as a dead cert Labour gain. Can anyone explain this complete disconnect between the polls and party leader visits?
Wait until you find out where the Prime Minister is holding his eve of election rally. Will make your head explode.
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour and Tories still tied: CON 34%, LAB 34%, LD 9%, UKIP 12%, GRN 5%
And we can all stop F5ing now...as shock horror, its a tie with YouGov...Are YouGov going to still be doing these on Friday onwards?
I've heard it said that you are more likely to predict the weather tomorrow correctly if you go for exactly the same weather that you had today rather than what all the weather computers say.
When YouGov are shown to be totally right they'll probably deserve an apology for all the annoyance at their stability they get every night. But they can keep on waiting for that - I need entertainment, YouGov!
Part of their stability has to be down to the need for daily polls, which end up putting the same question to the same group of people.
When you have been asked 3 times in a month who you are going to vote for, then you are more likely to have made up your mind.
Read what he actually said and it isn't really true what the Mirror are claiming. It is mostly sensible observations about the state of the country now and into the future e.g we have a lot of very poorly educated people who belong to families where many have never worked...
Don't understand all the activity in Hampstead & Kilburn - the Tories haven't got a chance in a month of Sundays there surely?!
There's a very good libdem candidate, and that means they will lose fewer votes to Labour than might normally be the case. That being said, is reckon it'll be 40:30:20
Phone polls aren't exactly as flawless as many on PB would have you believe. They also got the LD vote share wrong in 2010, along with online polls. ICM didn't get the EU Elections right either.
We believe in one per cent Conservative lead. We believe in one Lord Ashcroft, begotten of the Tories but not of one being with the Tories. For our sake he polled the marginals and asked funny questions of focus groups. He suffered polling blunders and was mocked. On the third day he rose again and fixed them. He is seated on the right side of seat betting odds. We believe in swingback, the named incumbency effect, the communion of phone polls, the end of electoral bias, the signalling effect of Labour ministers' canvassing choices, and the Tory government everlasting.
Not sure the Tories will be very happy with the Daily Mail...Guide to keeping Red Ed out, with a massive headline about how long it can take to get a GP's appointment.
Didn't they juxtapose a heavy attack on Ed M the other day with a huge headline about how this government has killed thousands with salt or something? I get the feeling the headline writers all over the place are a little confused about how much they can and can not be on message. The 'for sanity's sake' please seems a little desperate though - like they know it could very easily happen because the people are crazy.
Re the Mirror Headline on Major - it's surely he's been caught out in a spectacular way or his words are twisted, usual sort of thing, but I'm a little unclear on the purpose. I guess it shows the Tories are divided, but it's not like the Mirror editorial likes Major or thinks its readers should listen to him, right?
I expect most Mirror readers are rather old and think of Major as the nice suburban Tory different to all the 'posh' lot now.
But not many Mirror readers were likely to vote Conservative in any case.
Dair About halfway through on ITV2+1, so far he has been speaking to the leader of the Liberal Democats and not been certain who the PM is, thought 1305 was 2,000 years ago and flirted with a Sky reporter and Isabel Hardman and been on This Week. After the ads he meets Ed
Not a clue what you are on about. This forum makes it very easy to quote. Try doing it.
Where is Compouter... I will be surprised if the racist party get 14% I think it will be under 10%.. There's lots of BNP'ers hiding in UKIP or at least that seems to be the case.
Even if every 2010 BNPer were currently saying they were going to vote UKIP and they all changed their minds between now and Thursday, it still wouldn't make the UKIP score drop from 14 to under 10 you imbecile
Tut tut, getting aggressive.. the truth hurts... too many racists in UKIP, you must know quite a few yourself..
Sad lonely old man. Poor you
not lonely and not old, sad in one respect as my wife died, but hey you keep shilling for your racist party.. History teaches us NOT to trust parties like UKIP, .
History teaches us not to trust ANY parties. Your attempts to paint UKIP as uniquely bad amongst the major parties in Britain is - as Sam says - rather sad.
Awful about this senior IRA commander being killed. And in cold blood, too. Tragic. Really. Tragic. What is the world coming to.
*opens bottle of Waitrose Cava*
A man presumed to have ordered one of the most notorious murders in Northern Ireland since the GFA was signed. And yet widely reported in the press today as being a prominent supporter of the peace process. You wouldnt want to mix with the opponents of the peace process!
Phone polls aren't exactly as flawless as many on PB would have you believe. They also got the LD vote share wrong in 2010, along with online polls. ICM didn't get the EU Elections right either.
We believe in one per cent Conservative lead. We believe in one Lord Ashcroft, begotten of the Tories but not of one being with the Tories. For our sake he polled the marginals and asked funny questions of focus groups. He suffered polling blunders and was mocked. On the third day he rose again and fixed them. He is seated on the right side of seat betting odds. We believe in swingback, the named incumbency effect, the communion of phone polls, the end of electoral bias, the signalling effect of Labour ministers' canvassing choices, and the Tory government everlasting.
Really confused about this election right now. Look where Ed Miliband was today - Bedford and Warwickshire North! That's their number 1 Tory target for goodness sake. I've never known the polls be so out of line with where the party leaders are visiting. Look at Cameron - he's gone to so many of the Lib Dem target seats they have as well as Hendon today which I'd got as a dead cert Labour gain. Can anyone explain this complete disconnect between the polls and party leader visits?
Wait until you find out where the Prime Minister is holding his eve of election rally. Will make your head explode.
Don't understand all the activity in Hampstead & Kilburn - the Tories haven't got a chance in a month of Sundays there surely?!
I think a lot of the Tory optimism is about how in 2010 no-one expected them to take the seat and yet they nearly did. Since then, the area has gentrified a lot around the W Hampstead / Kilburn bit.
As a probably useless anecdote, my neighbour said he had been approached by Keir Starmer in Highgate - very nice apparently, but my neighbour gave him an earful over the mansion tax. Starmer apparently then said he has been hearing that a lot. If it is being said in Holborn and St Pancras, I can imagine it is even more so in H&K
It doesn't look as if the UKIP vote is shifting to Tories at all. Well not if any of the polls are anywhere close to right. No EU Referendum in 2017 then.
Really confused about this election right now. Look where Ed Miliband was today - Bedford and Warwickshire North! That's their number 1 Tory target for goodness sake. I've never known the polls be so out of line with where the party leaders are visiting. Look at Cameron - he's gone to so many of the Lib Dem target seats they have as well as Hendon today which I'd got as a dead cert Labour gain. Can anyone explain this complete disconnect between the polls and party leader visits?
Wait until you find out where the Prime Minister is holding his eve of election rally. Will make your head explode.
Nah. Cameron would claim "legitimacy" on that, and I reckon he would win through. Too many Labour MPs would be (rightly) chary of a lethal "non deal deal" with the Nats.
A poisoned chalice tho. Any Tory government trying to rule with those numbers would be shortlived.
I think that's the problem for the Tories. Realistically, they need to do substantially better than most polls are predicting, and they also need the LDs to do much better, too - to create viable coalition numbers. Anything else and you've got arrangement which won't last.
Only needs to last long enough for the bookies to pay out.
Should the Tories be disappointed in some of the qualified endorsements from papers? I mean, The Times does say 'Mr Cameron would govern better with a clear Tory majority' but they are being realistic in that Mr Cameron would govern better with a clear Tory majority but 'the polls now indicate that is a remote possibility' and so endorsing a Lib-Con coalition as the next best thing.
Don't understand all the activity in Hampstead & Kilburn - the Tories haven't got a chance in a month of Sundays there surely?!
There's a very good libdem candidate, and that means they will lose fewer votes to Labour than might normally be the case. That being said, is reckon it'll be 40:30:20
Yes, the LDs should have won it last time, but their chance has gone. The red liberals will swing behind Labour and despite the Mansion Tax (which probably costs less than 100 votes) Labour should coast home easily enough.
I'm beginning to think that everyone should vote tactically for the party most likely to win to save us all from the horrible prospect of having to re-run what must be the most goddam awful GE ever before the end of the year.
Re the Mirror Headline on Major ... Mirror headline appears to be from stuff he said while speaking at the Tory Reform Group annual dinner, but they are twisted....e.g. “We need to acknowledge the fact we have a pretty substantial underclass and there are parts of our country where we have people who have not worked for two generations and whose children do not expect to work." Well that is just stating fact and a fact that has existed for many many years...as he says himself...but Mirror equate that to Major saying "Tory education policy has failed".
Just had an e-mail from William Hague (ahem) asking me on GOTV on Thursday, which would seem like a good proxy for where the Conservatives are defending or think they can take seats.
The following came back within 25 miles of N London:
Finchley / Golders Green Sutton and Cheam Enfield North Thurrock Twickenham Hendon Battersea Stevenage Watford Ealing C Harrow East Ilford North Harrow West S Basildon / E Thurrock Brentford / Isleworth Hampstead and Kilburn Croydon Central Kingston and Surbiton
So no Carshalton but seems like the Conservatives still think they can bump off Vince (despite Geoffrey's endorsement) and take H&K.
I then thought why not do round my parents in Manchester and then upped it to 100 miles. The following came back:
Pendle Pudsey Halesowen / Rowley Regis Dudley North Lincoln Cannock Chase Chester Dudley South Northampton North Hazel Grove Nuneaton Dewsbury Erewash Birmingham Northfield Bury North Blackpool North Stockton South Loughborough Middlesborough South / E Cleveland Sherwood Solihull Keighley Halifax Telford Warrington South Colne Valley Elmet and Rothwell Louth and Horncastle Derby North High Peak Morley and Outwood Corby Wirral West Morecame and Lunesdale Wolverhampton SE Rossendale and Darwen Sherwood Amber Valley Cheadle Lancaster and Fleetwood Weaver Vale Boston and Skegness NE Derbyshire N Warwickshire Walsall North
Not sure how these correspond to the 40/40 strategy but a few individual seats sprung to mind: (1) they think they can still take Ed B; (2) was surprised at Cheadle, which I had thought would be very likely LD; (3) no mention of Chorley, which some had mentioned as a possible Con gain from Labour; (4) North West strategy all about holding seats but the Conservatives think they can take several from Labour in the West Midlands and a few in Yorkshire.
Really confused about this election right now. Look where Ed Miliband was today - Bedford and Warwickshire North! That's their number 1 Tory target for goodness sake. I've never known the polls be so out of line with where the party leaders are visiting. Look at Cameron - he's gone to so many of the Lib Dem target seats they have as well as Hendon today which I'd got as a dead cert Labour gain. Can anyone explain this complete disconnect between the polls and party leader visits?
Wait until you find out where the Prime Minister is holding his eve of election rally. Will make your head explode.
Halifax? Had to laugh when Crosby put that on his list of targets. That was last Tory in 1987 wasn't it?!
Really confused about this election right now. Look where Ed Miliband was today - Bedford and Warwickshire North! That's their number 1 Tory target for goodness sake. I've never known the polls be so out of line with where the party leaders are visiting. Look at Cameron - he's gone to so many of the Lib Dem target seats they have as well as Hendon today which I'd got as a dead cert Labour gain. Can anyone explain this complete disconnect between the polls and party leader visits?
Wait until you find out where the Prime Minister is holding his eve of election rally. Will make your head explode.
Really confused about this election right now. Look where Ed Miliband was today - Bedford and Warwickshire North! That's their number 1 Tory target for goodness sake. I've never known the polls be so out of line with where the party leaders are visiting. Look at Cameron - he's gone to so many of the Lib Dem target seats they have as well as Hendon today which I'd got as a dead cert Labour gain. Can anyone explain this complete disconnect between the polls and party leader visits?
Wait until you find out where the Prime Minister is holding his eve of election rally. Will make your head explode.
Really confused about this election right now. Look where Ed Miliband was today - Bedford and Warwickshire North! That's their number 1 Tory target for goodness sake. I've never known the polls be so out of line with where the party leaders are visiting. Look at Cameron - he's gone to so many of the Lib Dem target seats they have as well as Hendon today which I'd got as a dead cert Labour gain. Can anyone explain this complete disconnect between the polls and party leader visits?
Wait until you find out where the Prime Minister is holding his eve of election rally. Will make your head explode.
Don't understand all the activity in Hampstead & Kilburn - the Tories haven't got a chance in a month of Sundays there surely?!
I think a lot of the Tory optimism is about how in 2010 no-one expected them to take the seat and yet they nearly did. Since then, the area has gentrified a lot around the W Hampstead / Kilburn bit.
As a probably useless anecdote, my neighbour said he had been approached by Keir Starmer in Highgate - very nice apparently, but my neighbour gave him an earful over the mansion tax. Starmer apparently then said he has been hearing that a lot. If it is being said in Holborn and St Pancras, I can imagine it is even more so in H&K
Thanks for the info. Still doesn't make sense to me whatsoever! I'll be damned if that's a Tory gain on Friday morning!
Just had an e-mail from William Hague (ahem) asking me on GOTV on Thursday, which would seem like a good proxy for where the Conservatives are defending or think they can take seats.
The following came back within 25 miles of N London:
Finchley / Golders Green Sutton and Cheam Enfield North Thurrock Twickenham Hendon Battersea Stevenage Watford Ealing C Harrow East Ilford North Harrow West S Basildon / E Thurrock Brentford / Isleworth Hampstead and Kilburn Croydon Central Kingston and Surbiton
So no Carshalton but seems like the Conservatives still think they can bump off Vince (despite Geoffrey's endorsement) and take H&K.
I then thought why not do round my parents in Manchester and then upped it to 100 miles. The following came back:
Pendle Pudsey Halesowen / Rowley Regis Dudley North Lincoln Cannock Chase Chester Dudley South Northampton North Hazel Grove Nuneaton Dewsbury Erewash Birmingham Northfield Bury North Blackpool North Stockton South Loughborough Middlesborough South / E Cleveland Sherwood Solihull Keighley Halifax Telford Warrington South Colne Valley Elmet and Rothwell Louth and Horncastle Derby North High Peak Morley and Outwood Corby Wirral West Morecame and Lunesdale Wolverhampton SE Rossendale and Darwen Sherwood Amber Valley Cheadle Lancaster and Fleetwood Weaver Vale Boston and Skegness NE Derbyshire N Warwickshire Walsall North
Not sure how these correspond to the 40/40 strategy but a few individual seats sprung to mind: (1) they think they can still take Ed B; (2) was surprised at Cheadle, which I had thought would be very likely LD; (3) no mention of Chorley, which some had mentioned as a possible Con gain from Labour; (4) North West strategy all about holding seats but the Conservatives think they can take several from Labour in the West Midlands and a few in Yorkshire.
Not sure how much of this is new / illuminating.
Surprised to see Dudley North in that list. I would have thought the Tories have no chance at all there.
Really confused about this election right now. Look where Ed Miliband was today - Bedford and Warwickshire North! That's their number 1 Tory target for goodness sake. I've never known the polls be so out of line with where the party leaders are visiting. Look at Cameron - he's gone to so many of the Lib Dem target seats they have as well as Hendon today which I'd got as a dead cert Labour gain. Can anyone explain this complete disconnect between the polls and party leader visits?
Wait until you find out where the Prime Minister is holding his eve of election rally. Will make your head explode.
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour and Tories still tied: CON 34%, LAB 34%, LD 9%, UKIP 12%, GRN 5%
And we can all stop F5ing now...as shock horror, its a tie with YouGov...Are YouGov going to still be doing these on Friday onwards?
I've heard it said that you are more likely to predict the weather tomorrow correctly if you go for exactly the same weather that you had today rather than what all the weather computers say.
Bit like that with YouGov.
That's what really pees me off about the Met Office.
If you live in London and predict no rain every day, you will be right about 70% of the time. The Met Office's accuracy rate is about 75%. We pay all that dosh for an extra 5% of accuracy?
The next Chancellor has a small but easy savings target there.
Really confused about this election right now. Look where Ed Miliband was today - Bedford and Warwickshire North! That's their number 1 Tory target for goodness sake. I've never known the polls be so out of line with where the party leaders are visiting. Look at Cameron - he's gone to so many of the Lib Dem target seats they have as well as Hendon today which I'd got as a dead cert Labour gain. Can anyone explain this complete disconnect between the polls and party leader visits?
Wait until you find out where the Prime Minister is holding his eve of election rally. Will make your head explode.
Really confused about this election right now. Look where Ed Miliband was today - Bedford and Warwickshire North! That's their number 1 Tory target for goodness sake. I've never known the polls be so out of line with where the party leaders are visiting. Look at Cameron - he's gone to so many of the Lib Dem target seats they have as well as Hendon today which I'd got as a dead cert Labour gain. Can anyone explain this complete disconnect between the polls and party leader visits?
Wait until you find out where the Prime Minister is holding his eve of election rally. Will make your head explode.
Halifax? Had to laugh when Crosby put that on his list of targets. That was last Tory in 1987 wasn't it?!
Just had an e-mail from William Hague (ahem) asking me on GOTV on Thursday, which would seem like a good proxy for where the Conservatives are defending or think they can take seats.
The following came back within 25 miles of N London:
Finchley / Golders Green Sutton and Cheam Enfield North Thurrock Twickenham Hendon Battersea Stevenage Watford Ealing C Harrow East Ilford North Harrow West S Basildon / E Thurrock Brentford / Isleworth Hampstead and Kilburn Croydon Central Kingston and Surbiton
So no Carshalton but seems like the Conservatives still think they can bump off Vince (despite Geoffrey's endorsement) and take H&K.
I then thought why not do round my parents in Manchester and then upped it to 100 miles. The following came back:
Pendle Pudsey Halesowen / Rowley Regis Dudley North Lincoln Cannock Chase Chester Dudley South Northampton North Hazel Grove Nuneaton Dewsbury Erewash Birmingham Northfield Bury North Blackpool North Stockton South Loughborough Middlesborough South / E Cleveland Sherwood Solihull Keighley Halifax Telford Warrington South Colne Valley Elmet and Rothwell Louth and Horncastle Derby North High Peak Morley and Outwood Corby Wirral West Morecame and Lunesdale Wolverhampton SE Rossendale and Darwen Sherwood Amber Valley Cheadle Lancaster and Fleetwood Weaver Vale Boston and Skegness NE Derbyshire N Warwickshire Walsall North
Not sure how these correspond to the 40/40 strategy but a few individual seats sprung to mind: (1) they think they can still take Ed B; (2) was surprised at Cheadle, which I had thought would be very likely LD; (3) no mention of Chorley, which some had mentioned as a possible Con gain from Labour; (4) North West strategy all about holding seats but the Conservatives think they can take several from Labour in the West Midlands and a few in Yorkshire.
Not sure how much of this is new / illuminating.
Tories GOTV operation will be far too thinly spread if they're wasting resouces in NE Derbyshire and Walsall N!
Really confused about this election right now. Look where Ed Miliband was today - Bedford and Warwickshire North! That's their number 1 Tory target for goodness sake. I've never known the polls be so out of line with where the party leaders are visiting. Look at Cameron - he's gone to so many of the Lib Dem target seats they have as well as Hendon today which I'd got as a dead cert Labour gain. Can anyone explain this complete disconnect between the polls and party leader visits?
Wait until you find out where the Prime Minister is holding his eve of election rally. Will make your head explode.
Really confused about this election right now. Look where Ed Miliband was today - Bedford and Warwickshire North! That's their number 1 Tory target for goodness sake. I've never known the polls be so out of line with where the party leaders are visiting. Look at Cameron - he's gone to so many of the Lib Dem target seats they have as well as Hendon today which I'd got as a dead cert Labour gain. Can anyone explain this complete disconnect between the polls and party leader visits?
Wait until you find out where the Prime Minister is holding his eve of election rally. Will make your head explode.
Fwiw my take on phone v internet question. I've been screening calls for years now as 75% + of calls were sales / surveys / ppi/ accident. Thursday I worked from home so thought I'd try answering all calls. Sure enough the same 75% many with the pause before someone speaks at which point you know that 10 people are being called on a first answer basis. I think many people use answerphones and caller display to screen calls like this which polling calls would fall into. Also today I saw my 75 year old mother the most technophobic woman ever who is now very relaxed using her ipad and smartphone. My experience is that these 2 changes have happened in the last 5 years...... just my view...
Just had an e-mail from William Hague (ahem) asking me on GOTV on Thursday, which would seem like a good proxy for where the Conservatives are defending or think they can take seats.
Not sure how these correspond to the 40/40 strategy but a few individual seats sprung to mind: (1) they think they can still take Ed B; (2) was surprised at Cheadle, which I had thought would be very likely LD; (3) no mention of Chorley, which some had mentioned as a possible Con gain from Labour; (4) North West strategy all about holding seats but the Conservatives think they can take several from Labour in the West Midlands and a few in Yorkshire.
Not sure how much of this is new / illuminating.
I'm surprised they aren't getting people to GOTV in Crewe and Nantwich.
Yes, surprised, they must think they have lost it as they are campaigning in several seats around it.
Really confused about this election right now. Look where Ed Miliband was today - Bedford and Warwickshire North! That's their number 1 Tory target for goodness sake. I've never known the polls be so out of line with where the party leaders are visiting. Look at Cameron - he's gone to so many of the Lib Dem target seats they have as well as Hendon today which I'd got as a dead cert Labour gain. Can anyone explain this complete disconnect between the polls and party leader visits?
Wait until you find out where the Prime Minister is holding his eve of election rally. Will make your head explode.
Just had an e-mail from William Hague (ahem) asking me on GOTV on Thursday, which would seem like a good proxy for where the Conservatives are defending or think they can take seats.
The following came back within 25 miles of N London:
Finchley / Golders Green Sutton and Cheam Enfield North Thurrock Twickenham Hendon Battersea Stevenage Watford Ealing C Harrow East Ilford North Harrow West S Basildon / E Thurrock Brentford / Isleworth Hampstead and Kilburn Croydon Central Kingston and Surbiton
So no Carshalton but seems like the Conservatives still think they can bump off Vince (despite Geoffrey's endorsement) and take H&K.
I then thought why not do round my parents in Manchester and then upped it to 100 miles. The following came back:
Pendle Pudsey Halesowen / Rowley Regis Dudley North Lincoln Cannock Chase Chester Dudley South Northampton North Hazel Grove Nuneaton Dewsbury Erewash Birmingham Northfield Bury North Blackpool North Stockton South Loughborough Middlesborough South / E Cleveland Sherwood Solihull Keighley Halifax Telford Warrington South Colne Valley Elmet and Rothwell Louth and Horncastle Derby North High Peak Morley and Outwood Corby Wirral West Morecame and Lunesdale Wolverhampton SE Rossendale and Darwen Sherwood Amber Valley Cheadle Lancaster and Fleetwood Weaver Vale Boston and Skegness NE Derbyshire N Warwickshire Walsall North
Not sure how these correspond to the 40/40 strategy but a few individual seats sprung to mind: (1) they think they can still take Ed B; (2) was surprised at Cheadle, which I had thought would be very likely LD; (3) no mention of Chorley, which some had mentioned as a possible Con gain from Labour; (4) North West strategy all about holding seats but the Conservatives think they can take several from Labour in the West Midlands and a few in Yorkshire.
Not sure how much of this is new / illuminating.
Yes Broxtowe is on the list, as is Loughborough, Erewash, Derby N, Sherwood and Amber Valley.
Really confused about this election right now. Look where Ed Miliband was today - Bedford and Warwickshire North! That's their number 1 Tory target for goodness sake. I've never known the polls be so out of line with where the party leaders are visiting. Look at Cameron - he's gone to so many of the Lib Dem target seats they have as well as Hendon today which I'd got as a dead cert Labour gain. Can anyone explain this complete disconnect between the polls and party leader visits?
Wait until you find out where the Prime Minister is holding his eve of election rally. Will make your head explode.
I'm beginning to think that everyone should vote tactically for the party most likely to win to save us all from the horrible prospect of having to re-run what must be the most goddam awful GE ever before the end of the year.
How about adding a few extras into the next campaign eg cricket 'power plays' and 'jokers' from Its A Knockout.
UKIP at 16% with Survation and 12% with BMG with the Tories and Labour neck and neck Cameron needs to squeeze that vote
O/T Perhaps the most enlightening perspective on the General Election 'Educating Joey Essex' on ITV2 this evening, including Joey meeting Nick Clegg, Nigel Farage, Ed Miliband and Priti Patel
Really confused about this election right now. Look where Ed Miliband was today - Bedford and Warwickshire North! That's their number 1 Tory target for goodness sake. I've never known the polls be so out of line with where the party leaders are visiting. Look at Cameron - he's gone to so many of the Lib Dem target seats they have as well as Hendon today which I'd got as a dead cert Labour gain. Can anyone explain this complete disconnect between the polls and party leader visits?
Wait until you find out where the Prime Minister is holding his eve of election rally. Will make your head explode.
Really confused about this election right now. Look where Ed Miliband was today - Bedford and Warwickshire North! That's their number 1 Tory target for goodness sake. I've never known the polls be so out of line with where the party leaders are visiting. Look at Cameron - he's gone to so many of the Lib Dem target seats they have as well as Hendon today which I'd got as a dead cert Labour gain. Can anyone explain this complete disconnect between the polls and party leader visits?
Wait until you find out where the Prime Minister is holding his eve of election rally. Will make your head explode.
Really confused about this election right now. Look where Ed Miliband was today - Bedford and Warwickshire North! That's their number 1 Tory target for goodness sake. I've never known the polls be so out of line with where the party leaders are visiting. Look at Cameron - he's gone to so many of the Lib Dem target seats they have as well as Hendon today which I'd got as a dead cert Labour gain. Can anyone explain this complete disconnect between the polls and party leader visits?
Wait until you find out where the Prime Minister is holding his eve of election rally. Will make your head explode.
Just had an e-mail from William Hague (ahem) asking me on GOTV on Thursday, which would seem like a good proxy for where the Conservatives are defending or think they can take seats.
The following came back within 25 miles of N London:
Finchley / Golders Green Sutton and Cheam Enfield North Thurrock Twickenham Hendon Battersea Stevenage Watford Ealing C Harrow East Ilford North Harrow West S Basildon / E Thurrock Brentford / Isleworth Hampstead and Kilburn Croydon Central Kingston and Surbiton
So no Carshalton but seems like the Conservatives still think they can bump off Vince (despite Geoffrey's endorsement) and take H&K.
I then thought why not do round my parents in Manchester and then upped it to 100 miles. The following came back:
Pendle Pudsey Halesowen / Rowley Regis Dudley North Lincoln Cannock Chase Chester Dudley South Northampton North Hazel Grove Nuneaton Dewsbury Erewash Birmingham Northfield Bury North Blackpool North Stockton South Loughborough Middlesborough South / E Cleveland Sherwood Solihull Keighley Halifax Telford Warrington South Colne Valley Elmet and Rothwell Louth and Horncastle Derby North High Peak Morley and Outwood Corby Wirral West Morecame and Lunesdale Wolverhampton SE Rossendale and Darwen Sherwood Amber Valley Cheadle Lancaster and Fleetwood Weaver Vale Boston and Skegness NE Derbyshire N Warwickshire Walsall North
Not sure how these correspond to the 40/40 strategy but a few individual seats sprung to mind: (1) they think they can still take Ed B; (2) was surprised at Cheadle, which I had thought would be very likely LD; (3) no mention of Chorley, which some had mentioned as a possible Con gain from Labour; (4) North West strategy all about holding seats but the Conservatives think they can take several from Labour in the West Midlands and a few in Yorkshire.
Not sure how much of this is new / illuminating.
Sorry, Andrea - I had missed out Broxtowe by mistake. As someone said earlier though, interesting Crewe not on the list (I went through it again to make sure I had not missed more out).
Really confused about this election right now. Look where Ed Miliband was today - Bedford and Warwickshire North! That's their number 1 Tory target for goodness sake. I've never known the polls be so out of line with where the party leaders are visiting. Look at Cameron - he's gone to so many of the Lib Dem target seats they have as well as Hendon today which I'd got as a dead cert Labour gain. Can anyone explain this complete disconnect between the polls and party leader visits?
Wait until you find out where the Prime Minister is holding his eve of election rally. Will make your head explode.
Comments
The following came back within 25 miles of N London:
Finchley / Golders Green
Sutton and Cheam
Enfield North
Thurrock
Twickenham
Hendon
Battersea
Stevenage
Watford
Ealing C
Harrow East
Ilford North
Harrow West
S Basildon / E Thurrock
Brentford / Isleworth
Hampstead and Kilburn
Croydon Central
Kingston and Surbiton
So no Carshalton but seems like the Conservatives still think they can bump off Vince (despite Geoffrey's endorsement) and take H&K.
I then thought why not do round my parents in Manchester and then upped it to 100 miles. The following came back:
Pendle
Pudsey
Halesowen / Rowley Regis
Dudley North
Lincoln
Cannock Chase
Chester
Dudley South
Northampton North
Hazel Grove
Nuneaton
Dewsbury
Erewash
Birmingham Northfield
Bury North
Blackpool North
Stockton South
Loughborough
Middlesborough South / E Cleveland
Sherwood
Solihull
Keighley
Halifax
Telford
Warrington South
Colne Valley
Elmet and Rothwell
Louth and Horncastle
Derby North
High Peak
Morley and Outwood
Corby
Wirral West
Morecame and Lunesdale
Wolverhampton SE
Rossendale and Darwen
Sherwood
Amber Valley
Cheadle
Lancaster and Fleetwood
Weaver Vale
Boston and Skegness
NE Derbyshire
N Warwickshire
Walsall North
Not sure how these correspond to the 40/40 strategy but a few individual seats sprung to mind: (1) they think they can still take Ed B; (2) was surprised at Cheadle, which I had thought would be very likely LD; (3) no mention of Chorley, which some had mentioned as a possible Con gain from Labour; (4) North West strategy all about holding seats but the Conservatives think they can take several from Labour in the West Midlands and a few in Yorkshire.
Not sure how much of this is new / illuminating.
History of your posts teaches us you are a clueless cretin
Re the Mirror Headline on Major - it's surely he's been caught out in a spectacular way or his words are twisted, usual sort of thing, but I'm a little unclear on the purpose. I guess it shows the Tories are divided, but it's not like the Mirror editorial likes Major or thinks its readers should listen to him, right?
COMRES good for Tories.
All others result in EICIPM and at least 3 LAB likely to have most seats
Based on these GB numbers but calculating E&W and Scotland separately, UNS forecast
[ except 3 adjustments for UKIP ]
CON 286
LAB 270
LD 15
SNP 53
GRN 1
PC 3
UKIP 3
SPK 1
Good score for the Tories ! But UKIP numbers are good. Therefore, keeping CON in check.
LD not doing well by UNS.
I have made no individual personal adjustments apart from the 3 UKIP above.
Anyone who is repeating a previous poster's twitter links - please can you remove the "https://" from the front of them.
Then we won't have to wade through the repeated images.
Thanks.
“We need to acknowledge the fact we have a pretty substantial underclass and there are parts of our country where we have people who have not worked for two generations and whose children do not expect to work."
Well that is just stating fact and a fact that has existed for many many years...as he says himself...but Mirror equate that to Major saying "Tory education policy has failed".
Mike Smithson @MSmithsonPB
To recap
1 online pollster LAB lead 1%
3 online pollsters level pegging
2 phone pollster CON leads 2% & 3%
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/tories-david-cameron-savaged-former-5642377
Bit like that with YouGov.
Part of their stability has to be down to the need for daily polls, which end up putting the same question to the same group of people.
When you have been asked 3 times in a month who you are going to vote for, then you are more likely to have made up your mind.
But not many Mirror readers were likely to vote Conservative in any case.
As a probably useless anecdote, my neighbour said he had been approached by Keir Starmer in Highgate - very nice apparently, but my neighbour gave him an earful over the mansion tax. Starmer apparently then said he has been hearing that a lot. If it is being said in Holborn and St Pancras, I can imagine it is even more so in H&K
If you live in London and predict no rain every day, you will be right about 70% of the time. The Met Office's accuracy rate is about 75%. We pay all that dosh for an extra 5% of accuracy?
The next Chancellor has a small but easy savings target there.
Nearly a Conservative gain in 1992 though.
I also missed out Broxtowe
https://twitter.com/SunPolitics/status/595705535195906048/photo/1
The thumbs up Nicola is the cherry.