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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Two new polls have the battle very tight

New poll from newbie pollster BMG has parties level pegging. CON 3% ahead last week
CON 34-1
LAB 34 +2
LD 10 -1
UKIP 12 -2
GRN 4 +1
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http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2643743
= 270 seats
This thing ain't over
;-)
Con 35% (+2)
Lab 32% (-1)
Lib Dem 9% (+1)
UKIP 14% (+1)
Green 4% (-3)
Others 6% (No change)
GET IN.
http://www.bristolpost.co.uk/Vandals-drilled-oil-tank-attack-Bristol-MP/story-26443808-detail/story.html
BOOM
BOOM
BOOM
;-)
More seriously though...we all ready for another go in 12 months time? Same place, same time?
Never.
Stay 56%
Leave 34%
Here's BBC defending Nick Robinson supporting UKIP coverage claims
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ebgsr5GrR8w
It's heavily spun.
From memory the claims (if it was) The Spectator was making was that Robinson decided Immigration needed more coverage and focused on UKIP to get that. It may well be an unintended consequence of Robinson's decision.
Ashcroft - 4 point move to Labour
Survation - 2 point move to Tory (although no movement from last Mirror poll)
BMG - 3 point move to Labour
Comres - 3 point move to Tory
Populus - No swing
Labour level or slightly ahead on the internet.
Old people don't use the internet. Young people don't vote.
I don't believe there is any worthwhile info from postal votes - even if a few slips have been illegally glimpsed.
I don't believe the parties have access to any more worthwhile polls than we all have. It would cost a fortune and still have similar MOEs.
So the "mood music" will be a strategic choice from the campaigns' leadership..
If you think you are winning, you will play it down to avoid any complacency. "It's very tight".
If you think you are losing, you will play it up to boost morale. "We have a great victory within our grasp". You might even think it is worthwhile investing in some betting to give credence to your claim.
It is not WYSIWYG.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/595696164130926593
Michael Heaver @Michael_Heaver
Latest ComRes figures for UKIP have gone 10%, 11%, 13%, 14% today. Going up... http://www.comres.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/ITV-News-Daily-Mail-Political-Poll-5th-May-2015-6527.pdf …
Con 282
Lab 272
Ed is still PM.
Compouter seems to have the ear for You Gov, so I expect it to be adverse for the Tories... he /she must be working in Labour HQ
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/595698177409429504
O/T Perhaps the most enlightening perspective on the General Election 'Educating Joey Essex' on ITV2 this evening, including Joey meeting Nick Clegg, Nigel Farage, Ed Miliband and Priti Patel
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/595698952797822976
I haven't received anything at all by email, phone, or post.
I presume i'm registered - but which polling station do I go to? I'll have to call the council tomorrow, I guess.
I can't be the only one in this situation.
But this time there is a stronger grassroots, there is a stronger feeling in the country and they have a massive lead - 54% is different to the 48% they had in the First Indyref. They can drop the 2% or 3% that the media campaign can cause and still hit 50% and win everything.
However, if it is E&W only, then relief !
PLEASE CONFIRM
If the SNP are demanding to be bought off and some of the elected representatives of NI are keeping away from the pork barrel will people start to question the wisdom of staying away ?
ComRes = Phone
If Labour have the numbers to force Cameron out then they'll have no choice but to do so - otherwise its civil war within Labour and a stick for the SNP to beat them with forever.
Labour’s spending in the Blair/Brown years:
The majority of the British public think that the last Labour Government spent too much government money (59%). This includes (34%) current Labour voters.
22% of Britons think the last Labour government spent about the right amount of money, while 8% say it did not spent enough. [8% includes most of the Greens, no doubt]
EU membership:
Heading into the General Election, there is a large lead for remaining a part of the EU. 56% of Britons say they would vote to stay in, compared to 34% who say they would vote to leave. 10% say they don’t know how they will vote.
Did the serial letch find Priti most convincing?
I will laugh if Labour do a bit better in Scotland than polled, rendering the Tories laughable "legitimacy" nonsense moot. It really wouldn't take much.
The right-wing press is becoming increasingly unhinged and desperate, which is quite amusing. That being said, it's somewhat painful seeing what Murdoch has done to The Times.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/may/05/flyer-voters-oust-labour-us-style-dirty-tricks-campaign-key-seat
But it does look like evenly distributed chaos.
Tories by 4.
Robert Blay, who is standing in North East Hampshire, made the shocking threat of violence against Conservative Ranil Jayawardena.
And in a vile and shocking outburst, he raged: “If he is I will personally put a bullet between his eyes.
"If this lad turns up to be our Prime Minister I will personally put a bullet in him. That’s how strong I feel about it.
“I won’t have this f***** as our Prime Minister. I absolutely loathe him.”"
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/robert-blay-ukip-suspends-parliamentary-5641537
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/595701345937678337