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edited May 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Two new polls have the battle very tight

New poll from newbie pollster BMG has parties level pegging. CON 3% ahead last week
CON 34-1
LAB 34 +2
LD 10 -1
UKIP 12 -2
GRN 4 +1

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • Chameleon
    Chameleon Posts: 4,265
    First?
  • Ave_it
    Ave_it Posts: 2,411
    My post disappeared!
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2015
    Tomorrow's weather is appalling in a lot of places. Luckily it clears up by Thursday.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/2643743
  • DanSmith
    DanSmith Posts: 1,215
    ComRes at 10?
  • Pong
    Pong Posts: 4,693
    Based on the last price matched on Betfair's constituency markets, Labour have a >50% chance of winning 40 Conservative seats, 11 LD seats - and losing 39 to the SNP.

    = 270 seats
  • Freggles
    Freggles Posts: 3,487
    Remember that day when the Tories were 6% ahead

    This thing ain't over
  • Ave_it
    Ave_it Posts: 2,411
    Freggles said:

    Remember that day when the Tories were 6% ahead

    This thing ain't over

    2 days time! :lol:
  • Danny565
    Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    As others have said, it is very hard to square the polls with all the "mood music" coming from Labour.
  • another_richard
    another_richard Posts: 27,927
    Any chance of YouGov showing a 4% lead one way or another and sending everyone demented ?

    ;-)
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    another_richard said:

    Any chance of YouGov showing a 4% lead one way or another and sending everyone demented ?

    ;-)

    No
  • viewcode
    viewcode Posts: 25,202
    edited May 2015
    FPT
    SeanT said:

    OK I just broke the rule of a lifetime and had a minor punt on Labour Most Seats. The odds are daft.

    I don't think LabMostSeats will happen, and if I were honest I hope it does not, but having said that it's not an outrageous probability. I'm not betting on this election (a combination of time constraints and cowardice) but given the paltry returns of NOM, betting on LabMostSeats isn't a bad way to go.
  • Saltire
    Saltire Posts: 525
    Pong said:

    Based on the last price matched on Betfair's constituency markets, Labour have a >50% chance of winning 40 Conservative seats, 11 LD seats - and losing 39 to the SNP.

    = 270 seats

    The SPIN spread on Labour @ 263-267 at the moment seems to have much higher upside than down. If they poll ~34% then 280+ looks alot more likely than 250 or less.
  • acf2310
    acf2310 Posts: 141
    ComRes: 3pt Tory lead C 35(+2) L 32(-1) LD 9(+1) UKIP 14(+1) Grn 4(-3) http://ow.ly/i/aFTwK
  • Anorak
    Anorak Posts: 6,621
    edited May 2015
    ComRes voter intention England and Wales:

    Con 35% (+2)
    Lab 32% (-1)
    Lib Dem 9% (+1)
    UKIP 14% (+1)
    Green 4% (-3)
    Others 6% (No change)

    GET IN.
  • dr_spyn
    dr_spyn Posts: 11,312
    Not just cars sprayed in Bristol NW.

    http://www.bristolpost.co.uk/Vandals-drilled-oil-tank-attack-Bristol-MP/story-26443808-detail/story.html
  • Ave_it
    Ave_it Posts: 2,411
    COMRES!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
  • acf2310
    acf2310 Posts: 141
    Funny that BMG move from Con +3 to a tie, and ComRes move from a tie to Con +3.
  • steve_garner
    steve_garner Posts: 1,019
    Is ComRes phone or online?
  • acf2310
    acf2310 Posts: 141
    steve_garner said:

    Is ComRes phone or online?

    Phone

  • Tykejohnno
    Tykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    acf2310 said:

    ComRes: 3pt Tory lead C 35(+2) L 32(-1) LD 9(+1) UKIP 14(+1) Grn 4(-3) http://ow.ly/i/aFTwK

    IOS would put it -

    BOOM

    BOOM

    BOOM

    ;-)
  • Ishmael_X
    Ishmael_X Posts: 3,664
    steve_garner said:

    Is ComRes phone or online?

    phone
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,724
    edited May 2015
    Anorak said:

    ComRes voter intention England and Wales:

    Con 35% (+2)
    Lab 32% (-1)
    Lib Dem 9% (+1)
    UKIP 14% (+1)
    Green 4% (-3)
    Others 6% (No change)

    GET IN.

    Hell yeah....as the Ted Stone falls on him.....At least I tried.....

    More seriously though...we all ready for another go in 12 months time? Same place, same time?
  • Sean_F
    Sean_F Posts: 39,132
    rcs1000 said:

    another_richard said:

    Any chance of YouGov showing a 4% lead one way or another and sending everyone demented ?

    ;-)

    No
    When does this torment end?

    Never.
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    Dair said:

    kle4 said:



    I did not realise Nick Robinson had such power. I am not familiar with the rise of UKIP, perhaps you could enlighten me how Nick is at fault.

    I'm fairly sure it was The Spectator I read it on. Maybe it was elsewhere but I've seen multiple sources for the claim. It may well be bullshit but as Political Editor, Robinson does hold some weight at the BBC.
    I'm sure he does, I've just never heard this connection between him and the rise of UKIP before, which is most interesting if it is a speculated thing.
  • Anorak
    Anorak Posts: 6,621
    edited May 2015
    FPT:
    compouter2 said:

    Though most PB Hodges won't admit it. There are squirrel logs all over my back garden as Basil has heard there is a baddun for the Tories due imminently. Brace yourselves, it could be a Reverse Swingback.

    Unlucky, sunshine.
  • steve_garner
    steve_garner Posts: 1,019
    Thanks, and BMG?
  • Dair
    Dair Posts: 6,108
    Anorak said:

    ComRes voter intention England and Wales:

    Con 35% (+2)
    Lab 32% (-1)
    Lib Dem 9% (+1)
    UKIP 14% (+1)
    Green 4% (-3)
    Others 6% (No change)

    GET IN.

    That's still EICINPIPM.
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    Freggles said:

    Remember that day when the Tories were 6% ahead

    This thing ain't over

    Yes it is. But thanks to ComRes for eking out a little more Tory hope for another couple of days rather than making it seem entirely inevitable.
  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    Dair said:

    Anorak said:

    ComRes voter intention England and Wales:

    Con 35% (+2)
    Lab 32% (-1)
    Lib Dem 9% (+1)
    UKIP 14% (+1)
    Green 4% (-3)
    Others 6% (No change)

    GET IN.

    That's still EICINPIPM.
    UKIP 7% was your prediction last week wasn't it #shrewdie
  • SquareRoot
    SquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Where is Compouter... I will be surprised if the racist party get 14% I think it will be under 10%.. There's lots of BNP'ers hiding in UKIP or at least that seems to be the case.
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    acf2310 said:

    ComRes: 3pt Tory lead C 35(+2) L 32(-1) LD 9(+1) UKIP 14(+1) Grn 4(-3) http://ow.ly/i/aFTwK

    Relief for the Tories after the earlier polls.
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,724
    Still nobody has told the Metro newspaper...THERE IS AN ELECTION ON....
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    A funny scenario would be daily polls after the election up to any Queen's Speech - seeing if the public rapidly shifts back and forth depending on whether it looks like the Tories are giving up too much to the LDs and the Kipper vote rises, or Lab sees its polling collapse as it bends the knee to Sturgeon, and then each side reacting against that polling, ruining their own coalition negotiations.
  • DavidL
    DavidL Posts: 55,867
    So another phone poll favours the Tories. Can we expect the same tomorrow `for ICM and Ipsos MORI? That would set a certain tone for the last day.
  • MikeL
    MikeL Posts: 7,809
    BBC1 10pm gives Clegg the lead headline.
  • Sean_F
    Sean_F Posts: 39,132
    SquareRoot said:

    Where is Compouter... I will be surprised if the racist party get 14% I think it will be under 10%.. There's lots of BNP'ers hiding in UKIP or at least that seems to be the case.

    Are you are actually stupid, or do you just act like it?

  • Artist
    Artist Posts: 1,893
    Also has an EU referendum question

    Stay 56%
    Leave 34%
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    Anorak said:

    ComRes voter intention England and Wales:

    Con 35% (+2)
    Lab 32% (-1)
    Lib Dem 9% (+1)
    UKIP 14% (+1)
    Green 4% (-3)
    Others 6% (No change)

    GET IN.

    That's UKIP 5-7 seats on my model:-)
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    rcs1000 said:

    Anorak said:

    ComRes voter intention England and Wales:

    Con 35% (+2)
    Lab 32% (-1)
    Lib Dem 9% (+1)
    UKIP 14% (+1)
    Green 4% (-3)
    Others 6% (No change)

    GET IN.

    That's UKIP 5-7 seats on my model:-)
    I'm sure they'll get at least 5 seats.
  • Dair
    Dair Posts: 6,108
    edited May 2015
    kle4 said:

    Dair said:

    kle4 said:



    I did not realise Nick Robinson had such power. I am not familiar with the rise of UKIP, perhaps you could enlighten me how Nick is at fault.

    I'm fairly sure it was The Spectator I read it on. Maybe it was elsewhere but I've seen multiple sources for the claim. It may well be bullshit but as Political Editor, Robinson does hold some weight at the BBC.
    I'm sure he does, I've just never heard this connection between him and the rise of UKIP before, which is most interesting if it is a speculated thing.
    Well of course it's speculated.

    Here's BBC defending Nick Robinson supporting UKIP coverage claims
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ebgsr5GrR8w

    It's heavily spun.

    From memory the claims (if it was) The Spectator was making was that Robinson decided Immigration needed more coverage and focused on UKIP to get that. It may well be an unintended consequence of Robinson's decision.
  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    SquareRoot said:

    Where is Compouter... I will be surprised if the racist party get 14% I think it will be under 10%.. There's lots of BNP'ers hiding in UKIP or at least that seems to be the case.

    Even if every 2010 BNPer were currently saying they were going to vote UKIP and they all changed their minds between now and Thursday, it still wouldn't make the UKIP score drop from 14 to under 10 you imbecile
  • dyedwoolie
    dyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Summary
    Ashcroft - 4 point move to Labour
    Survation - 2 point move to Tory (although no movement from last Mirror poll)
    BMG - 3 point move to Labour
    Comres - 3 point move to Tory
    Populus - No swing
  • Sean_F
    Sean_F Posts: 39,132
    On average, the Tories are up 1.2% in today's polling. Probably not enough, but certainly no reason to throw in the towel.
  • chestnut
    chestnut Posts: 7,341
    edited May 2015
    dyedwoolie said:

    Summary
    Ashcroft - 4 point move to Labour
    Survation - 2 point move to Tory (although no movement from last Mirror poll)
    BMG - 3 point move to Labour
    Comres - 3 point move to Tory
    Populus - No swing

    Tories up 2 and 3 on the phones.

    Labour level or slightly ahead on the internet.

    Old people don't use the internet. Young people don't vote.
  • Barnesian
    Barnesian Posts: 9,221
    edited May 2015
    Danny565 said:

    As others have said, it is very hard to square the polls with all the "mood music" coming from Labour.

    Very few people in any of the parties will have an overview of total canvassing returns. It will be a tightly held secret with the campaign leadership.

    I don't believe there is any worthwhile info from postal votes - even if a few slips have been illegally glimpsed.

    I don't believe the parties have access to any more worthwhile polls than we all have. It would cost a fortune and still have similar MOEs.

    So the "mood music" will be a strategic choice from the campaigns' leadership..

    If you think you are winning, you will play it down to avoid any complacency. "It's very tight".

    If you think you are losing, you will play it up to boost morale. "We have a great victory within our grasp". You might even think it is worthwhile investing in some betting to give credence to your claim.

    It is not WYSIWYG.
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,724
    And I can exclusively reveal tomorrow BBC headlines...

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/595696164130926593
  • Tykejohnno
    Tykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    Michael Heaver @Michael_Heaver

    Latest ComRes figures for UKIP have gone 10%, 11%, 13%, 14% today. Going up... http://www.comres.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/ITV-News-Daily-Mail-Political-Poll-5th-May-2015-6527.pdf …

  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    Dair said:

    kle4 said:

    Dair said:

    kle4 said:



    I did not realise Nick Robinson had such power. I am not familiar with the rise of UKIP, perhaps you could enlighten me how Nick is at fault.

    I'm fairly sure it was The Spectator I read it on. Maybe it was elsewhere but I've seen multiple sources for the claim. It may well be bullshit but as Political Editor, Robinson does hold some weight at the BBC.
    I'm sure he does, I've just never heard this connection between him and the rise of UKIP before, which is most interesting if it is a speculated thing.
    Well of course it's speculated.

    Here's BBC defending Nick Robinson supporting UKIP coverage claims
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ebgsr5GrR8w

    It's heavily spun.
    I should clarify that by speculated thing I had meant basically that it was a widely shared theory, which is why I was surprised I had not heard of it.
  • SquareRoot
    SquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    isam said:

    SquareRoot said:

    Where is Compouter... I will be surprised if the racist party get 14% I think it will be under 10%.. There's lots of BNP'ers hiding in UKIP or at least that seems to be the case.

    Even if every 2010 BNPer were currently saying they were going to vote UKIP and they all changed their minds between now and Thursday, it still wouldn't make the UKIP score drop from 14 to under 10 you imbecile
    Tut tut, getting aggressive.. the truth hurts... too many racists in UKIP, you must know quite a few yourself..
  • Monksfield
    Monksfield Posts: 2,905
    Has crossover happened yet?
  • The_Apocalypse
    The_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    DavidL said:

    So another phone poll favours the Tories. Can we expect the same tomorrow `for ICM and Ipsos MORI? That would set a certain tone for the last day.

    ICM for sure will show a Tory lead - Ipsos-Mori, with their high five-point lead it's difficult to tell.
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Prof Colin Rallings:

    Con 282
    Lab 272
  • SMukesh
    SMukesh Posts: 1,759
    With the Comres,Con-289,Lab-272.SNP-52

    Ed is still PM.

  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,724
    chestnut said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    Summary
    Ashcroft - 4 point move to Labour
    Survation - 2 point move to Tory (although no movement from last Mirror poll)
    BMG - 3 point move to Labour
    Comres - 3 point move to Tory
    Populus - No swing

    Tories up 2 and 3 on the phones.

    Labour level or slightly ahead on the internet.

    Old people don't use the internet. Young people don't vote.
    Sure this ComRes poll is ok? Not worried about weighting?
  • SquareRoot
    SquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    edited May 2015
    PS

    Compouter seems to have the ear for You Gov, so I expect it to be adverse for the Tories... he /she must be working in Labour HQ
  • Anorak
    Anorak Posts: 6,621
    edited May 2015
    Comedy subsample has Labour at 20% in Scotland. Veeery small sample, natch.
  • another_richard
    another_richard Posts: 27,927
    Chameleon said:


    We both know that. However that is also completely irrelevant to the general public. They will see losers ganging up to try and lock the rightful winners out of power - and will give them a kicking in the ballot booth for it.

    Possibly but that sounds very reminiscent of what many Democrats were saying when Bush Jnr became President 'Redefeat Bush' etc
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2015
    I reckon the SNP will get about 45% again. No change from the referendum. (It'll win them about 50 out of 59 seats though).
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,724
    edited May 2015
    Times gives it endorsement

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/595698177409429504
  • Dair
    Dair Posts: 6,108
    kle4 said:

    Dair said:

    kle4 said:

    Dair said:

    kle4 said:



    I did not realise Nick Robinson had such power. I am not familiar with the rise of UKIP, perhaps you could enlighten me how Nick is at fault.

    I'm fairly sure it was The Spectator I read it on. Maybe it was elsewhere but I've seen multiple sources for the claim. It may well be bullshit but as Political Editor, Robinson does hold some weight at the BBC.
    I'm sure he does, I've just never heard this connection between him and the rise of UKIP before, which is most interesting if it is a speculated thing.
    Well of course it's speculated.

    Here's BBC defending Nick Robinson supporting UKIP coverage claims
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ebgsr5GrR8w

    It's heavily spun.
    I should clarify that by speculated thing I had meant basically that it was a widely shared theory, which is why I was surprised I had not heard of it.
    Dunno, it was all coming out middle of last year and to be fair I wasn't paying attention. But given that, to have got the impression it was Robinson responsible means it must have been more than Bubble deep.
  • compouter2
    compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    SquareRoot said:

    Where is Compouter... I will be surprised if the racist party get 14% I think it will be under 10%.. There's lots of BNP'ers hiding in UKIP or at least that seems to be the case.

    Err........I'm here and over in the other thread. Yougov 14 minutes away.
  • another_richard
    another_richard Posts: 27,927
    rcs1000 said:

    another_richard said:

    Any chance of YouGov showing a 4% lead one way or another and sending everyone demented ?

    ;-)

    No
    Is that a prediction or a statement or do we have to wait 15 minutes to find out ?
  • FrankBooth
    FrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    Could we not do with an average of the phone polling companies and a separate average of the online firms?
  • another_richard
    another_richard Posts: 27,927
    Anorak said:

    ComRes voter intention England and Wales:

    Con 35% (+2)
    Lab 32% (-1)
    Lib Dem 9% (+1)
    UKIP 14% (+1)
    Green 4% (-3)
    Others 6% (No change)

    GET IN.

    What's the UK numbers ?
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    another_richard said:

    Anorak said:

    ComRes voter intention England and Wales:

    Con 35% (+2)
    Lab 32% (-1)
    Lib Dem 9% (+1)
    UKIP 14% (+1)
    Green 4% (-3)
    Others 6% (No change)

    GET IN.

    What's the UK numbers ?
    Those are the GB numbers, aren't they?
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    UKIP at 16% with Survation and 12% with BMG with the Tories and Labour neck and neck Cameron needs to squeeze that vote

    O/T Perhaps the most enlightening perspective on the General Election 'Educating Joey Essex' on ITV2 this evening, including Joey meeting Nick Clegg, Nigel Farage, Ed Miliband and Priti Patel
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,724
    Either Major has been caught out saying something off the record or the Mirror are twisting his words...

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/595698952797822976
  • SquareRoot
    SquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    compouter2 said:

    SquareRoot said:

    Where is Compouter... I will be surprised if the racist party get 14% I think it will be under 10%.. There's lots of BNP'ers hiding in UKIP or at least that seems to be the case.

    Err........I'm here and over in the other thread. Yougov 14 minutes away.
    yes and you only really appear for yougov.. funny that ...
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,077
    chestnut said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    Summary
    Ashcroft - 4 point move to Labour
    Survation - 2 point move to Tory (although no movement from last Mirror poll)
    BMG - 3 point move to Labour
    Comres - 3 point move to Tory
    Populus - No swing

    Tories up 2 and 3 on the phones.

    Labour level or slightly ahead on the internet.

    Old people don't use the internet. Young people don't vote.
    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/594835246866157570
  • Pong
    Pong Posts: 4,693
    It's just occurred to me that, since registering to vote online on the 19th April, I still don't know if I can actually vote. I got an email straight away giving me a reference code and saying my council will contact me either to confirm i'm registered, or to ask for more information.

    I haven't received anything at all by email, phone, or post.

    I presume i'm registered - but which polling station do I go to? I'll have to call the council tomorrow, I guess.

    I can't be the only one in this situation.
  • Dair
    Dair Posts: 6,108
    SeanT said:

    I also think we've seen peak SNP (see the latest YouGov indypoll). The last 48 hours have not been good for the Nats, with a definite whiff of Nationalistic hubris unhappily combining with images of slightly brownshirt Nat bullying. They'll still do very well, but I do not see a clean sweep.

    We've seen then same narrative as in the First Indyref. The media has spun a narrative of which the SNP has no control, creating a black cloud over the party in this case and Yes Scotland in the previous case. I have little doubt this didn;t chance the outcome of the First Indyref.

    But this time there is a stronger grassroots, there is a stronger feeling in the country and they have a massive lead - 54% is different to the 48% they had in the First Indyref. They can drop the 2% or 3% that the media campaign can cause and still hit 50% and win everything.
  • surbiton
    surbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited May 2015
    another_richard said:

    Anorak said:

    ComRes voter intention England and Wales:

    Con 35% (+2)
    Lab 32% (-1)
    Lib Dem 9% (+1)
    UKIP 14% (+1)
    Green 4% (-3)
    Others 6% (No change)

    GET IN.

    What's the UK numbers ?
    Are these UK or E&W numbers ? If UK, then these are very good numbers for the Tories. I make it 286 seats. Labour 270, SNP 53, LD 15, UKIP 3.

    However, if it is E&W only, then relief !

    PLEASE CONFIRM
  • peter_from_putney
    peter_from_putney Posts: 6,956
    edited May 2015
    Although it's 23 years ago, "Sheffield" remains the elephant in the room, everyone of a certain age remembers it. We keep being told that polling methodologies are much improved since then ..... yea right. That must be why they're still playing about with them every other week.
    SeanT said:

    Adding the polls together puts the Tories 1-2 points ahead. Not nearly enough. I reckon Labour will edge it in seats (though not votes) on such a score.

    Robert Smithson, no fool he, this morning had the Tories no fewer than 63 seats ahead of Labour, whilst Prof Stephen Fisher had them with just over half that lead.
  • Anorak
    Anorak Posts: 6,621
    another_richard said:

    Anorak said:

    ComRes voter intention England and Wales:

    Con 35% (+2)
    Lab 32% (-1)
    Lib Dem 9% (+1)
    UKIP 14% (+1)
    Green 4% (-3)
    Others 6% (No change)

    GET IN.

    What's the UK numbers ?
    My mistake. those are UK numbers. E&W: Tories are on 37%, Labour on 33%, UKIP 15%, LD 8%.
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Everyone who said UKIP wouldn't end up causing the Tories to lose office is looking a bit silly at the moment, because that's precisely the position as things stand.
  • DavidL
    DavidL Posts: 55,867
    Is it just possible that SF might review their long held policy and take their seats in such a shambolic Parliament? The NI budget is already under more pressure than would have been contemplated during the troubles and there has to be a risk that their gross level of subsidy will be under further pressure in the next Parliament.

    If the SNP are demanding to be bought off and some of the elected representatives of NI are keeping away from the pork barrel will people start to question the wisdom of staying away ?
  • The_Apocalypse
    The_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    SeanT said:

    SMukesh said:

    With the Comres,Con-289,Lab-272.SNP-52

    Ed is still PM.

    Nah. Cameron would claim "legitimacy" on that, and I reckon he would win through. Too many Labour MPs would be (rightly) chary of a lethal "non deal deal" with the Nats.

    A poisoned chalice tho. Any Tory government trying to rule with those numbers would be shortlived.

    I think that's the problem for the Tories. Realistically, they need to do substantially better than most polls are predicting, and they also need the LDs to do much better, too - to create viable coalition numbers. Anything else and you've got arrangement which won't last.
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,724
    chestnut said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    Summary
    Ashcroft - 4 point move to Labour
    Survation - 2 point move to Tory (although no movement from last Mirror poll)
    BMG - 3 point move to Labour
    Comres - 3 point move to Tory
    Populus - No swing

    Tories up 2 and 3 on the phones.

    Labour level or slightly ahead on the internet.

    Old people don't use the internet. Young people don't vote.
    Old people do use the internet...loads of people in their 60s and 70s are constantly on their damn iPads and have the time to fill in stupid surveys.
  • Verulamius
    Verulamius Posts: 1,555
    Try eastwestrail.org.uk for details of the new link project for the rail between Cambridge and Oxford.
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,077
    BMG = Online
    ComRes = Phone
  • acf2310
    acf2310 Posts: 141
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    chestnut said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    Summary
    Ashcroft - 4 point move to Labour
    Survation - 2 point move to Tory (although no movement from last Mirror poll)
    BMG - 3 point move to Labour
    Comres - 3 point move to Tory
    Populus - No swing

    Tories up 2 and 3 on the phones.

    Labour level or slightly ahead on the internet.

    Old people don't use the internet. Young people don't vote.
    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/594835246866157570
    It's the sudden change this year that's interesting - before that the phone polls were no different, or if anything slightly more favourable for Lab.

  • compouter2
    compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    SquareRoot said:

    compouter2 said:

    SquareRoot said:

    Where is Compouter... I will be surprised if the racist party get 14% I think it will be under 10%.. There's lots of BNP'ers hiding in UKIP or at least that seems to be the case.

    Err........I'm here and over in the other thread. Yougov 14 minutes away.
    yes and you only really appear for yougov.. funny that ...
    Weird isn't it.
  • another_richard
    another_richard Posts: 27,927
    SeanT said:

    SMukesh said:

    With the Comres,Con-289,Lab-272.SNP-52

    Ed is still PM.

    Nah. Cameron would claim "legitimacy" on that, and I reckon he would win through. Too many Labour MPs would be (rightly) chary of a lethal "non deal deal" with the Nats.

    A poisoned chalice tho. Any Tory government trying to rule with those numbers would be shortlived.

    So shortlived it wouldn't even get a Queen's Speech passed.

    If Labour have the numbers to force Cameron out then they'll have no choice but to do so - otherwise its civil war within Labour and a stick for the SNP to beat them with forever.
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    another_richard said:

    rcs1000 said:

    another_richard said:

    Any chance of YouGov showing a 4% lead one way or another and sending everyone demented ?

    ;-)

    No
    Is that a prediction or a statement or do we have to wait 15 minutes to find out ?
    Yes
  • Anorak
    Anorak Posts: 6,621
    Other ComRes findings:

    Labour’s spending in the Blair/Brown years:

    The majority of the British public think that the last Labour Government spent too much government money (59%). This includes (34%) current Labour voters.
    22% of Britons think the last Labour government spent about the right amount of money, while 8% say it did not spent enough. [8% includes most of the Greens, no doubt]

    EU membership:

    Heading into the General Election, there is a large lead for remaining a part of the EU. 56% of Britons say they would vote to stay in, compared to 34% who say they would vote to leave. 10% say they don’t know how they will vote.
  • OllyT
    OllyT Posts: 5,050
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Times gives it endorsement

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/595698177409429504

    Wouldn't "Times does what Murdoch tells it to" be a little nearer the truth?
  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    SquareRoot said:

    isam said:

    SquareRoot said:

    Where is Compouter... I will be surprised if the racist party get 14% I think it will be under 10%.. There's lots of BNP'ers hiding in UKIP or at least that seems to be the case.

    Even if every 2010 BNPer were currently saying they were going to vote UKIP and they all changed their minds between now and Thursday, it still wouldn't make the UKIP score drop from 14 to under 10 you imbecile
    Tut tut, getting aggressive.. the truth hurts... too many racists in UKIP, you must know quite a few yourself..
    Sad lonely old man. Poor you
  • Dair
    Dair Posts: 6,108
    HYUFD said:

    UKIP at 16% with Survation and 12% with BMG with the Tories and Labour neck and neck Cameron needs to squeeze that vote

    O/T Perhaps the most enlightening perspective on the General Election 'Educating Joey Essex' on ITV2 this evening, including Joey meeting Nick Clegg, Nigel Farage, Ed Miliband and Priti Patel

    So tell me.

    Did the serial letch find Priti most convincing?
  • The_Apocalypse
    The_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Phone polls aren't exactly as flawless as many on PB would have you believe. They also got the LD vote share wrong in 2010, along with online polls. ICM didn't get the EU Elections right either.
  • Oliver_PB
    Oliver_PB Posts: 397
    Closest election for a generation, no doubt. Exciting stuff.

    I will laugh if Labour do a bit better in Scotland than polled, rendering the Tories laughable "legitimacy" nonsense moot. It really wouldn't take much.

    The right-wing press is becoming increasingly unhinged and desperate, which is quite amusing. That being said, it's somewhat painful seeing what Murdoch has done to The Times.
  • Ghedebrav
    Ghedebrav Posts: 3,860
    SeanT said:

    SMukesh said:

    With the Comres,Con-289,Lab-272.SNP-52

    Ed is still PM.

    Nah. Cameron would claim "legitimacy" on that, and I reckon he would win through. Too many Labour MPs would be (rightly) chary of a lethal "non deal deal" with the Nats.

    A poisoned chalice tho. Any Tory government trying to rule with those numbers would be shortlived.

    All true. Though if 25 LDs survived a coalition could be formed with DUP c&s support. Might be good to have a bit of a 'legislation holiday'.
  • AndreaParma_82
    AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Weird things in Islington South...weird given it'll be a Labour landslide anyway

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/may/05/flyer-voters-oust-labour-us-style-dirty-tricks-campaign-key-seat
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,724
    edited May 2015
    OllyT said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Times gives it endorsement

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/595698177409429504

    Wouldn't "Times does what Murdoch tells it to" be a little nearer the truth?
    Traditionally the Times was mostly left to its own devices. I don't know if that has now changed, but it certainly become a lot more Tory friendly and thats is a shame.
  • SquareRoot
    SquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    isam said:

    SquareRoot said:

    isam said:

    SquareRoot said:

    Where is Compouter... I will be surprised if the racist party get 14% I think it will be under 10%.. There's lots of BNP'ers hiding in UKIP or at least that seems to be the case.

    Even if every 2010 BNPer were currently saying they were going to vote UKIP and they all changed their minds between now and Thursday, it still wouldn't make the UKIP score drop from 14 to under 10 you imbecile
    Tut tut, getting aggressive.. the truth hurts... too many racists in UKIP, you must know quite a few yourself..
    Sad lonely old man. Poor you
    not lonely and not old, sad in one respect as my wife died, but hey you keep shilling for your racist party.. History teaches us NOT to trust parties like UKIP, .
  • Neil
    Neil Posts: 7,983
    DavidL said:

    Is it just possible that SF might review their long held policy and take their seats in such a shambolic Parliament?

    No, it's not.
  • hunchman
    hunchman Posts: 2,591
    Really confused about this election right now. Look where Ed Miliband was today - Bedford and Warwickshire North! That's their number 1 Tory target for goodness sake. I've never known the polls be so out of line with where the party leaders are visiting. Look at Cameron - he's gone to so many of the Lib Dem target seats they have as well as Hendon today which I'd got as a dead cert Labour gain. Can anyone explain this complete disconnect between the polls and party leader visits?
  • chestnut
    chestnut Posts: 7,341
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    chestnut said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    Summary
    Ashcroft - 4 point move to Labour
    Survation - 2 point move to Tory (although no movement from last Mirror poll)
    BMG - 3 point move to Labour
    Comres - 3 point move to Tory
    Populus - No swing

    Tories up 2 and 3 on the phones.

    Labour level or slightly ahead on the internet.

    Old people don't use the internet. Young people don't vote.
    Sure this ComRes poll is ok? Not worried about weighting?
    It's chaos, Frankie.

    But it does look like evenly distributed chaos.

    Tories by 4.
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2015
    "A UKIP parliamentary candidate was dramatically suspended from the party tonight after Mirror investigators filmed him threatening to shoot his Tory rival.

    Robert Blay, who is standing in North East Hampshire, made the shocking threat of violence against Conservative Ranil Jayawardena.

    And in a vile and shocking outburst, he raged: “If he is I will personally put a bullet between his eyes.

    "If this lad turns up to be our Prime Minister I will personally put a bullet in him. That’s how strong I feel about it.

    “I won’t have this f***** as our Prime Minister. I absolutely loathe him.”"

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/robert-blay-ukip-suspends-parliamentary-5641537
  • Dair
    Dair Posts: 6,108
    DavidL said:

    Is it just possible that SF might review their long held policy and take their seats in such a shambolic Parliament?

    No.
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,724
    edited May 2015
    Not sure the Tories will be very happy with the Daily Mail...Guide to keeping Red Ed out, with a massive headline about how long it can take to get a GP's appointment.

    https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/595701345937678337
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