politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Two polls so far – Populus remains level pegging while CON

JosiasJessop · May 2015

watford30 said:

Plato said:
//twitter.com/jasonmillsitv/status/595636847440723970/photo/1
That's Mr Logic from Viz.

Ahem. Someone used to call me Mr Logic. I think it was affectionate ... ;-)

I am, of course, much better looking.

Pulpstar · May 2015

rural_voter said:

Pulpstar said:

isam said:
The groupthink mike speaks of assumes Ukip will get 2-3 seats from a double figure vote share too
UKIP's problem is that it isn't doing nearly badly enough in it's no hoper seats. The vast array of 2nd places in the North should give a solid base for GE2020 though.

I expect 3 or 4 seats for UKIP this time round.
Thanet, Clacton and Thurrock I assume. Plus R&S or Boston?

A reduced UKIP vote leaves some 'interesting' odds on what are now fairly safe Tory seats.

I've totally filled my boots in Sittingbourne Sheppey, Christchurch, Kettering and some others.

Casino_Royale · May 2015

antifrank said:
The main thing that makes me wonder about the polls is Labour's brittle emotional state at present. It's hard to credit unless they have fairly tangible evidence that the polls aren't telling the whole story.

Isn't that simply because Labour have realised they won't get a clear neat win, and are actually starting to contemplate the horror of regaining power and trying to govern whilst being behind on seats?

Sunil_Prasannan · May 2015

JosiasJessop said:

Plato said:
twitter.com/jasonmillsitv/status/595636847440723970/photo/1
This has probably already been done, but:

Dwayne Dibley!!!

The Duke of Dork?

kle4 · May 2015

Millsy said:

The important point is the the Tories will lose votes where it doesn't matter. So what if the Tories suffer a loss of 5-10% to Ukip in their safe seats, they are not going to be moved from the blue column

A possibility, to be sure. Personally I find it hard to accept that the national polls would be as poor (or rather not good enough) for the Tories and yet they will still win on that basis of that alone though. And the other potential factors to help the Tories are even less visible.

Casino_Royale said:

antifrank said:
The main thing that makes me wonder about the polls is Labour's brittle emotional state at present. It's hard to credit unless they have fairly tangible evidence that the polls aren't telling the whole story.
Isn't that simply because Labour have realised they won't get a clear neat win, and are actually starting to contemplate the horror of regaining power and trying to govern whilst being behind on seats?

This seems more likely a reason to my mind.

The_Apocalypse · May 2015

That Staggers article also reports doubts within Labour that their worrying is actually justified, and that apparently they always think they are going to lose at every election. Even the Staggers' conclusion isn't sure whether the worrying is justified or not. I'm rather puzzled by it; tbh I can't see the evidence for Labour's worrying. The Tories appear to be confident because they think (a. they'll at least get the popular vote (b. Tory party hierarchy feel they are assured of another coalition with the LDs to keep them in government (c. that Labour will be so afraid of being associated with the SNP, they won't vote down anything will could weaken the government. All of which are quite debatable, but the last two especially.

Speedy · May 2015

Pulpstar said:

rural_voter said:

Pulpstar said:

isam said:
The groupthink mike speaks of assumes Ukip will get 2-3 seats from a double figure vote share too
UKIP's problem is that it isn't doing nearly badly enough in it's no hoper seats. The vast array of 2nd places in the North should give a solid base for GE2020 though.

I expect 3 or 4 seats for UKIP this time round.
Thanet, Clacton and Thurrock I assume. Plus R&S or Boston?

A reduced UKIP vote leaves some 'interesting' odds on what are now fairly safe Tory seats.
You'd have to go with R&S for the fourth I think due to incumbency factor. The youngish Boston candidate may well cost UKIP the seat unfortunately.

Boston is interesting because it is under UKIP control somewhat, it is the strongest local UKIP stronghold and the Tory MP retired, also the UKIP candidate despite his young age is a local councillor.
I say it's 50-50 but only because a LordA poll had it very close, the Survation one had it on a huge double digit lead for UKIP.

MP_SE · May 2015

Speedy said:

MP_SE said:
Anyone know what is going on with the South Thanet odds? Tory and Labour odds are lengthening. The UKIP odds look way way too short.

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/thanet-south/winning-party
Yesterday's Sheffield Hallam poll which named the candidates and provided a boost for Captain Titanic there, that's what happened.

OGH has a theory that naming the candidates will provide a boost for Clegg, Murphy and Farage in the polls, ICM has aided him on that.

I was thinking about how the Ashcroft polling may have understated Farage's chances but there was also the ComRes polling which had him 1% behind.

FrancisUrquhart · May 2015

Millsy said:
I find it hard to see how the polling swings in England and Wales can be just ignored. In England & Wales in 2010 the Tories were 10.2% ahead of LAB on voters. It is very hard to discount current margins of just one or two.

The assumption appears to be that LAB will put on votes where it doesn’t matter but will do less well where it does. I don’t buy it and there’s precious little supporting evidence.

The important point is the the Tories will lose votes where it doesn't matter. So what if the Tories suffer a loss of 5-10% to Ukip in their safe seats, they are not going to be moved from the blue column

I do seem to remember at 2010, the Tories actually by their historically low standard put on a fair few votes in some places like RedCar and then woefully under performed in some traditional Tory seats / marginals they were expected to walk e.g Wilfred Emmanuel-Jones failed in deepest darkest farmer country of Chippenham.

Off the top of my head there was a lot of excitement from the Tories and early claims exit polls might be wrong and not hung parliament, due to showing so well in some early traditionally Labour seats that they had no chance of ever winnings, but then had lots of misses on marginals.

Jonathan · May 2015

SouthamObserver said:
Labour has never seen itself as the natural party of government in this country. It is perennially pessimistic about its chances, something which also affects the way it governs. What happened in I992 probably stung the party more than any other election it has ever contested.

I suspect there is a bit of that in the NS article, but I also believe that Labour is going to significantly under-perform the UNS numbers. A lot of sitting Labour MPs will increase their majorities, the Labour vote share will go up, but gains against both the LDs and Tories will be relatively light and certainly nowhere near enough for Labour to be the largest party.

Might be true, but probably bollocks. Wouldn't be the first time this sort of story has turned up out of nowhere. Good news, only two days 'til we start to find out.

Speedy · May 2015

SouthamObserver said:
Labour has never seen itself as the natural party of government in this country. It is perennially pessimistic about its chances, something which also affects the way it governs. What happened in I992 probably stung the party more than any other election it has ever contested.

I suspect there is a bit of that in the NS article, but I also believe that Labour is going to significantly under-perform the UNS numbers. A lot of sitting Labour MPs will increase their majorities, the Labour vote share will go up, but gains against both the LDs and Tories will be relatively light and certainly nowhere near enough for Labour to be the largest party.

Well UNS has never been more that 10 seats wrong on the Labour-Tory fight, 1997 was the only exception because of the huge LD tactical vote in the south.

HYUFD · May 2015

Speedy The key is where the UKIP vote is coming from not where it has drifted back, and half of UKIP voters are ex Tories, so plenty of room for some of them to come back at the last minute to get an EU referendum and stop a Miliband-Sturgeon deal, just as voters moved to Likud in Israel from rightwing parties at the last minute. Indeed UKIP are still on 12% in Norwich N, 19% in Peterborough, 15% in Stourbridge and 14% in N Cornwall in the last batch of Ashcroft marginals polls, so plenty of room to be squeezed
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/05/mixed-fortunes-in-my-final-round-of-marginals/#more-11523

Before 1997 John Major of course won over 40% in 1992, the last Tory leader to do so

Richard_Tyndall · May 2015

Pulpstar said:

rural_voter said:

Pulpstar said:

isam said:
The groupthink mike speaks of assumes Ukip will get 2-3 seats from a double figure vote share too
UKIP's problem is that it isn't doing nearly badly enough in it's no hoper seats. The vast array of 2nd places in the North should give a solid base for GE2020 though.

I expect 3 or 4 seats for UKIP this time round.
Thanet, Clacton and Thurrock I assume. Plus R&S or Boston?

A reduced UKIP vote leaves some 'interesting' odds on what are now fairly safe Tory seats.
You'd have to go with R&S for the fourth I think due to incumbency factor. The youngish Boston candidate may well cost UKIP the seat unfortunately.

UKIP have been running a very strong ground game in Dudley North and have been able to pull in a lot of support from UKIP teams in Birmingham so I believe that seat is one of the possible (admittedly few) upsets that could see UKIP get an extra seat.

Plato · May 2015

OT @SeanT Have you been to any of these?

dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3068494/The-abandoned-beauty-Italy-s-20-000-ghost-towns-Stunning-pictures-ruined-villages-left-crumble-eerie-splendour-emigration-natural-calamities-pirate-raids-sent-locals-packing.html?ITO=1490&ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=1490

AndyJS · May 2015

O/T:

Trojan Horse scandal still ongoing according to headteacher:

http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/may/03/birmingham-headteachers-say-subject-campaign-intimidation

"Birmingham headteachers say they are subject to campaign of intimidation
Schools in city caught in upheaval from the Trojan Horse investigation are targeted with dead animals in playgrounds and death threats on social media"

foxinsoxuk · May 2015

currystar said:

MikeK said:

MikeK's forecast for the GE......:

Con 29% Lab 28% UKIP 21% L/Dem 7% SNP 5% Grn 3% Others 7%

Travelled around Hampstead and Camden Town this morning and the absence of posters and billboards is striking. I saw one window in Camden displaying a vote Labour poster; just one in miles of streets in this Labour London heartland. Uncanny! It's as if people have decided to vote - if at all - in silence.

Thats why I believe a silent revolution, utterly British, is in the making.
In Eastleigh I have only seen one UKIP poster

That is one more than I have seen anywhere!

Speedy · May 2015

HYUFD said:
Speedy The key is where the UKIP vote is coming from not where it has drifted back, and half of UKIP voters are ex Tories, so plenty of room for some of them to come back at the last minute to get an EU referendum and stop a Miliband-Sturgeon deal, just as voters moved to Likud in Israel from rightwing parties at the last minute. Indeed UKIP are still on 12% in Norwich N, 19% in Peterborough, 15% in Stourbridge and 14% in N Cornwall in the last batch of Ashcroft marginals polls, so plenty of room to be squeezed
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/05/mixed-fortunes-in-my-final-round-of-marginals/#more-11523

Before 1997 John Major of course won over 40% in 1992, the last Tory leader to do so

You see the key is always where the vote is drifting back, if it is.
You forget that UKIP voters are made up of people who detest Cameroonianism.

And I will repeat it, no one believes Cameron's promises.

AndyJS · May 2015

UKIP's 10 most likely seats IMO:

1. Clacton
2. Thanet South
3. Thurrock
4. Rochester & Strood
5. Boston & Skegness
6. Castle Point
7. Dudley North
8. Rother Valley
9. Walsall North
10.Great Grimsby

foxinsoxuk · May 2015

antifrank said:
The main thing that makes me wonder about the polls is Labour's brittle emotional state at present. It's hard to credit unless they have fairly tangible evidence that the polls aren't telling the whole story.

I think the nervous breakdown over Scotland would cover it.

Richard_Tyndall · May 2015

AndyJS said:
UKIP's 10 most likely seats IMO:

1. Clacton
2. Thanet South
3. Thurrock
4. Rochester & Strood
5. Boston & Skegness
6. Castle Point
7. Dudley North
8. Rother Valley
9. Walsall North
10.Great Grimsby

I think the candidate in Grimsby effectively kills any chance of that being a UKIP gain.

ydoethur · May 2015

SouthamObserver said:
Labour has never seen itself as the natural party of government in this country. It is perennially pessimistic about its chances, something which also affects the way it governs. What happened in I992 probably stung the party more than any other election it has ever contested.

I suspect there is a bit of that in the NS article, but I also believe that Labour is going to significantly under-perform the UNS numbers. A lot of sitting Labour MPs will increase their majorities, the Labour vote share will go up, but gains against both the LDs and Tories will be relatively light and certainly nowhere near enough for Labour to be the largest party.

1992, 1970, 1959 (believe it or not - you may not when you check the result!)...Labour actually has quite a history of hubris and then humiliation when it comes to election results. Indeed, they have been more or less arrogant about their chances of winning for the last 15 months (cf @Jonathan).

I am not saying that such a shock is in store this time - merely that if Labour is pessimistic, there probably is a reason for it. It may be postal votes, or canvass returns, or simply the fact that while they have expended enormous energy on their campaign, it has been ill-directed and badly thought out. But whatever it is, it's clearly there.

slade · May 2015

Lord Oakeshott has been in Dewsbury today supporting the Labour candidate. She is one of the 30 from her party who received money in order to oust the sitting Conservative.

Speedy · May 2015

AndyJS said:
UKIP's 10 most likely seats IMO:

1. Clacton
2. Thanet South
3. Thurrock
4. Rochester & Strood
5. Boston & Skegness
6. Castle Point
7. Dudley North
8. Rother Valley
9. Walsall North
10.Great Grimsby

I agree, with the following chances:
Clacton 100%
Thanet South 60%
Thurrock 80%
Rochester 40%
Boston 50%
Castle Point 40%

The problem is on other seats that haven't been polled and might have slipped under the radar, anyway that is the reason why the range of UKIP seats goes from 3 up to 5.

AndyJS · May 2015

Tissue_Price said:
Are Labour losing?

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/05/are-labour-losing

Does increasing your number of seats by 10 or 20 count as "winning"?

FrancisUrquhart · May 2015

AndyJS said:
O/T:

Trojan Horse scandal still ongoing according to headteacher:

http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2015/may/03/birmingham-headteachers-say-subject-campaign-intimidation

"Birmingham headteachers say they are subject to campaign of intimidation
Schools in city caught in upheaval from the Trojan Horse investigation are targeted with dead animals in playgrounds and death threats on social media"

It ok Khalid Mahmood will be on the case again, he's your man to clamp down on things like gender segregation...it isn't like he is happy to attend rallys were it occurs, on wait...

JGC · May 2015

It is very easy if you have an interest in politics to get caught up in all the excitement (over excitement) of the next few days. The reality is that folk on here are very much in the minority and (despite OGH's strap line) part of a bubble of unreality. Most folk made their minds up weeks / months ago. All the 24hr news blah, newspaper headlines, leaflets through the door etc make very little difference. In a very few marginal seats, Russell Brand, Boris Johnson, punch ups on the streets of Glasgow or whatever might, just might, move a few voters to actually change the result. There is evidence from 2010 that where Labour's impressive ground operation is focused, it makes a real difference (eg Westminster North, Edgbaston, Gedling) but can it really make that much difference, especially if many voters are disaffected?

Logic and past experience, that the final result usually matches the polls before the short campaign starts, suggests OGHs views are right and the betting markets wrong (he has made a good deal of money from spotting when the market is wrong). Personal experience from the past few weeks leaves me firmly convinced Labour will do well in London, including picking up a seat not on most lists for Labour to win. However there is clearly nervousness about the prospects elsewhere, some of that is dictated by the groupthink OGH mentions but perhaps also generated because there are areas where Labour is simply not doing as well as it could be eg Medway Towns.

I think OGH is right but have a small nagging doubt he might not be, perhaps because of the experience from having "been there got the t shirt" in 92, when I was involved in a fantastically successful campaign (we won

) but the rest of the country was a different story.

bigjohnowls · May 2015

Survation. ‏@Survation 4m4 minutes ago
POLL ALERT: 7PM - 2 days to go until polls open 30 mins until our next @DailyMirror poll @Jack_Blanchard_ reports "at the top of the hour".

Another Survation

jameslaz · May 2015

I agree with Mike's logic and think that Labour having an equal number of seats is even money. Nobody is recognising that they have a huge army of supporters in key marginals that should enable them to deliver at least in line with the national polls

foxinsoxuk · May 2015

Speedy said:

AndyJS said:
UKIP's 10 most likely seats IMO:

1. Clacton
2. Thanet South
3. Thurrock
4. Rochester & Strood
5. Boston & Skegness
6. Castle Point
7. Dudley North
8. Rother Valley
9. Walsall North
10.Great Grimsby
I agree.
Clacton 100%
Thanet South 60%
Thurrock 80%
Rochester 40%
Boston 50%
Castle Point 40%

The problem is on other seats that haven't been polled and might have slipped under the radar, anyway that is the reason why range of UKIP seats goes from 3 up to 5.

I think Great Grimsby will go Labour and kippers in third, but the Con highjinks in Dudley North could send it kipper.

Tissue_Price · May 2015

Right - about to set off for the pb.com meet-up in Broxtowe. A chance to ~~kidnap~~ share a pint with Nick.

Victoria pub, 85 Dovecote Lane, Beeston NG9 1JG from about 8 if anyone local is reading and at a loose end...

AndyJS · May 2015

"Places like Stockton South and Broxtowe have received extra staff, suggesting the party’s central data is projecting a tougher fight than expected by the polls – while alarmingly, seats like Pudsey, Ipswich and Northampton North are receiving no extra visits. Without those gains, even a combined Labour-SNP bloc won’t be sufficient to oust David Cameron.

One organiser sent me a text that summed up the overall message: “Dude, where’s my swing?”

“The only way I can explain our promise,” said another, “is if there is barely any swing at all.”"

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/05/are-labour-losing

ydoethur · May 2015

jameslaz said:
I agree with Mike's logic and think that Labour having an equal number of seats is even money. Nobody is recognising that they have a huge army of supporters in key marginals that should enable them to deliver at least in line with the national polls

If they use them correctly. They have been shockingly badly used here. I agree with @JGC that where they are focussed and well-managed, it may make a difference - but otherwise it's hard to see them doing more than a shift a handful of ultra-marginals.

HYUFD · May 2015

Speedy The hardcore UKIP voters detest Cameron yes, and UKIP will get around 10% at least, but at least 40% of UKIP voters voted for Cameron in 2010, even if only half those vote for him again that would give the Tories an extra 3% or so and get them up to around 37% and save a few more Tory marginals

Speedy · May 2015

foxinsoxuk said:

Speedy said:

AndyJS said:
UKIP's 10 most likely seats IMO:

1. Clacton
2. Thanet South
3. Thurrock
4. Rochester & Strood
5. Boston & Skegness
6. Castle Point
7. Dudley North
8. Rother Valley
9. Walsall North
10.Great Grimsby
I agree.
Clacton 100%
Thanet South 60%
Thurrock 80%
Rochester 40%
Boston 50%
Castle Point 40%

The problem is on other seats that haven't been polled and might have slipped under the radar, anyway that is the reason why range of UKIP seats goes from 3 up to 5.
I think Great Grimsby will go Labour and kippers in third, but the Con highjinks in Dudley North could send it kipper.

Since the Tories don't effectively have a candidate in Dudley North after that very amusing scandal there and UKIP was already second within range of Labour, yes there is a chance if only the Tory voters have thrown the towel.

But I'm sure Tory HQ will do it's best to prevent Tory tactical voting in favour of UKIP, even if it means Labour win the seat.

Sunil_Prasannan · May 2015

bigjohnowls said:
Survation. ‏@Survation 4m4 minutes ago
POLL ALERT: 7PM - 2 days to go until polls open 30 mins until our next @DailyMirror poll @Jack_Blanchard_ reports "at the top of the hour".

Another Survation

Yet another online poll!!!

TheScreamingEagles · May 2015

Because I'm unfashionably early.

I'm the pub for da Broxtowe meet.

I'm the chap in the red shoes.

ukelect · May 2015

foxinsoxuk said:

currystar said:

MikeK said:

MikeK's forecast for the GE......:

Con 29% Lab 28% UKIP 21% L/Dem 7% SNP 5% Grn 3% Others 7%

Travelled around Hampstead and Camden Town this morning and the absence of posters and billboards is striking. I saw one window in Camden displaying a vote Labour poster; just one in miles of streets in this Labour London heartland. Uncanny! It's as if people have decided to vote - if at all - in silence.

Thats why I believe a silent revolution, utterly British, is in the making.
In Eastleigh I have only seen one UKIP poster
That is one more than I have seen anywhere!

I saw a UKIP poster in Southampton! (And two Conservative ones. And four Labour ones - although perhaps it was more like two sets of two Labour posters..)

Speedy · May 2015

HYUFD said:
Speedy The hardcore UKIP voters detest Cameron yes, and UKIP will get around 10% at least, but at least 40% of UKIP voters voted for Cameron in 2010, even if only half those vote for him again that would give the Tories an extra 3% or so and get them up to around 37% and save a few more Tory marginals

I think they will prefer to shove him than vote for him again.

bigjohnowls · May 2015

Most seats market

LAB into 5.1 from 5.9
Con 1.2 out to 1.23

EICIPM market Mystic Dan does the trick as back to yesterdays levels after DH declares Dave the winner

Dave drifted like a barge in last 3 hours

Yorkcity · May 2015

Jonathan said:

SouthamObserver said:
Labour has never seen itself as the natural party of government in this country. It is perennially pessimistic about its chances, something which also affects the way it governs. What happened in I992 probably stung the party more than any other election it has ever contested.

I suspect there is a bit of that in the NS article, but I also believe that Labour is going to significantly under-perform the UNS numbers. A lot of sitting Labour MPs will increase their majorities, the Labour vote share will go up, but gains against both the LDs and Tories will be relatively light and certainly nowhere near enough for Labour to be the largest party.
Might be true, but probably bollocks. Wouldn't be the first time this sort of story has turned up out of nowhere. Good news, only two days 'til we start to find out.

The media and many on here, will be declaring that a government led by Miliband would be illegitimate,

Casino_Royale · May 2015

bigjohnowls said:
Most seats market

LAB into 5.1 from 5.9
Con 1.2 out to 1.23

EICIPM market Mystic Dan does the trick as back to yesterdays levels after DH declares Dave the winner

Dave drifted like a barge in last 3 hours

The DH call is the worst news I've heard this week.

Neil · May 2015

TheScreamingEagles said:
Because I'm unfashionably early.

I'm the pub for da Broxtowe meet.

I'm the chap in the red shoes.

If they are the same red shoes you'll be the only person in the pub soon so easy for everyone to spot.

Now click your heels together and say "there's nothing like swingback, there's nothing like swingback".

TheScreamingEagles · May 2015

Neil said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Because I'm unfashionably early.

I'm the pub for da Broxtowe meet.

I'm the chap in the red shoes.
If they are the same red shoes you'll be the only person in the pub soon so easy for everyone to spot.

Now click your heels together and say "there's nothing like swingback, there's nothing like swingback".

They are the replica of the originals.

Speedy · May 2015

bigjohnowls said:
Most seats market

LAB into 5.1 from 5.9
Con 1.2 out to 1.23

EICIPM market Mystic Dan does the trick as back to yesterdays levels after DH declares Dave the winner

Dave drifted like a barge in last 3 hours

It is amazing that Labour most seats is on 5.1, with only one poll out of nine showing Tory most seats.

bigjohnowls · May 2015

TheScreamingEagles said:
Because I'm unfashionably early.

I'm the pub for da Broxtowe meet.

I'm the chap in the red shoes.

Bet you keep a diary

Neil · May 2015

TheScreamingEagles said:

Neil said:

TheScreamingEagles said:
Because I'm unfashionably early.

I'm the pub for da Broxtowe meet.

I'm the chap in the red shoes.
If they are the same red shoes you'll be the only person in the pub soon so easy for everyone to spot.

Now click your heels together and say "there's nothing like swingback, there's nothing like swingback".
They are the replica of the originals.

The mind boggles.

Cyclefree · May 2015

antifrank said:
The main thing that makes me wonder about the polls is Labour's brittle emotional state at present. It's hard to credit unless they have fairly tangible evidence that the polls aren't telling the whole story.

Unless it's like the famous wobble which the Tories had during the 1987 campaign. In retrospect the result was never in doubt.

Neil · May 2015

Casino_Royale said:

bigjohnowls said:
Most seats market

LAB into 5.1 from 5.9
Con 1.2 out to 1.23

EICIPM market Mystic Dan does the trick as back to yesterdays levels after DH declares Dave the winner

Dave drifted like a barge in last 3 hours
The DH call is the worst news I've heard this week.

Until you saw Roger call it for Dave, surely.

bigjohnowls · May 2015

8m to Survation

HYUFD · May 2015

Speedy When they hover over their ballot papers and the prospect of a Miliband premiership under the thumb of Salmond and no EU referendum hovers into view I would not be surprised if a few stick with the blue team in the end

TheScreamingEagles · May 2015

You know the election is too close to call because publicity shy Paddy Power haven't done an early payout.

Omnium · May 2015

I'm sure that you all mostly know about this link for declaration times, but if you don't (and I had trouble finding it again) then

http://election.pressassociation.com/Declaration_times/general_by_time.php

@speedy,foxinsoxuk etc. Re Hull area - I think that we'll get surprises. Hull East - 3am! I wouldn't give a fig for the seat normally, but for 2-Jags old haunt to go purple would be quite a lot of fun.

john_zims · May 2015

@TSE

'I'm the chap in the red shoes.'

Are we getting a photo of tonight's gathering including your shoes ?

Casino_Royale · May 2015

Neil said:

Casino_Royale said:

bigjohnowls said:
Most seats market

LAB into 5.1 from 5.9
Con 1.2 out to 1.23

EICIPM market Mystic Dan does the trick as back to yesterdays levels after DH declares Dave the winner

Dave drifted like a barge in last 3 hours
The DH call is the worst news I've heard this week.
Until you saw Roger call it for Dave, surely.

Sh*t. Did he?

bigjohnowls · May 2015

roadto326 retweeted
Will Jennings ‏@drjennings 2m2 minutes ago
Will Jennings retweeted Guardian news
Abolishing statutory maternity pay? Wow.

Speedy · May 2015

HYUFD said:
Speedy When they hover over their ballot papers and the prospect of a Miliband premiership under the thumb of Salmond and no EU referendum hovers into view I would not be surprised if a few stick with the blue team in the end

I think the prospect of a Cameron premiership under the thumb of Clegg and no EU referendum is equally appalling.
But just to see Cameron's face when he's booted out of No.10 tips the scales to UKIP with many of their voters.

Dair · May 2015

SeanT said:

Plato said:
OT @SeanT Have you been to any of these?

dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3068494/The-abandoned-beauty-Italy-s-20-000-ghost-towns-Stunning-pictures-ruined-villages-left-crumble-eerie-splendour-emigration-natural-calamities-pirate-raids-sent-locals-packing.html?ITO=1490&ns_mchannel=rss&ns_campaign=1490
Yes. I've visted a few Italian ghost towns. One in particular, in Calabria - Rhogudi - features in a novel of mine.

https://farm4.staticflickr.com/3236/5791050742_cde1cc57fc_o.jpg

I spent a day there (it's very hard to get to). An incredible place. V spooky. It was abandoned in the 19th century due to an overabundance of earthquakes, and witches.

How on earth did communities like that subsist? I can see abandoned terraces in the background there but it doesn't look nearly enough for the population, there doesn't seem to be much grazing.

I can understand people abandoning them as unsuitable for modernity, no roads and stuff. But how did a community even develop there without any visible agricultural prospects?

Yorkcity · May 2015

Neil said:

Casino_Royale said:

bigjohnowls said:
Most seats market

LAB into 5.1 from 5.9
Con 1.2 out to 1.23

EICIPM market Mystic Dan does the trick as back to yesterdays levels after DH declares Dave the winner

Dave drifted like a barge in last 3 hours
The DH call is the worst news I've heard this week.
Until you saw Roger call it for Dave, surely.

Roger got the Scottish referendum correct didn`t he.
I always look out for Southam, he makes me laugh, especially on the night before the Scottish referendum , he was still giving his money away,

Casino_Royale · May 2015

Tissue_Price said:
Right - about to set off for the pb.com meet-up in Broxtowe. A chance to ~~kidnap~~ share a pint with Nick.

Victoria pub, 85 Dovecote Lane, Beeston NG9 1JG from about 8 if anyone local is reading and at a loose end...

See if you can swipe a look at his canvass returns when he's distracted. I'd love a second opinion ;-)

Bob__Sykes · May 2015

Tissue_Price said:
Right - about to set off for the pb.com meet-up in Broxtowe. A chance to ~~kidnap~~ share a pint with Nick.

Victoria pub, 85 Dovecote Lane, Beeston NG9 1JG from about 8 if anyone local is reading and at a loose end...

Not surprisingly as a Tory, I want Nick to fall short, decent chap though he seems to be, but I'm a bit surprised he's down the pub 36 hours before the polls open rather than doing all he can to round up every last Labour voter.

Is he supremely confident he's got Broxtowe in the bag, or does he know it's not going to happen?

;-)

AndyJS · May 2015

Actually I forgot about Plymouth Moor View where UKIP were just 5% behind Labour in an Ashcroft poll from December:

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/01/plymouth-moor-view/

FrancisUrquhart · May 2015

bigjohnowls said:
roadto326 retweeted
Will Jennings ‏@drjennings 2m2 minutes ago
Will Jennings retweeted Guardian news
Abolishing statutory maternity pay? Wow.

Very helpful leak even if it terms out again to be "blue sky" thinking, thats tomorrow BBC new cycle sorted. Wonder how long the Guardian have been sitting on it, waiting to deploy at the most helpful time.

bigjohnowls · May 2015

The leaked proposals say the DWP is at high risk of continuing to overspend on sickness and disability benefits in future years because the high-profile programme of welfare reform introduced by Duncan Smith in 2010 “has not realised its goals” of saving money.

DavidL · May 2015

Ed Miliband thinks it is still useful to be campaigning in Warwickshire North. Snigger.

He thinks he is losing.

Speedy · May 2015

Jack Blanchard ‏@Jack_Blanchard_ 27s28 seconds ago
Today's Mirror/Survation poll:
LAB 34 (n/c)
CON 33 (n/c)
UKIP 16 (n/c)
LD 9 (n/c)
SNP 4 (+1)
GREEN 4 (+1)
OTHER 1 (-1)

No change.

TheScreamingEagles · May 2015

@Jack_Blanchard_: Today's Mirror/Survation poll:
LAB 34 (n/c)
CON 33 (n/c)
UKIP 16 (n/c)
LD 9 (n/c)
SNP 4 (+1)
GREEN 4 (+1)
OTHER 1 (-1)

bigjohnowls · May 2015

Tonights Survation EICIPM

Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 23s24 seconds ago
Latest Survation poll:
LAB - 34% (-)
CON - 33% (+2)
UKIP - 16% (-1)
LDEM - 9% (+1)
GRN - 4% (-)

The_Apocalypse · May 2015

Well, that poll was something of a damp squib.

Speedy · May 2015

I'm interested to see the named constituency question of Survation.

Plato · May 2015

So is it Tories up 2 or not?

JGC · May 2015

AndyJS said:

Tissue_Price said:
Are Labour losing?

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/05/are-labour-losing
Does increasing your number of seats by 10 or 20 count as "winning"?

Some of this is simply not true and much of it rather understandable nerves.

Perhaps an indication that some of the speculation in the past 48 hours is overdone is the fact that Yvette Cooper lead a bus full of folk around 6 constituencies today, Hove, the 2 Brighton seats, Croydon Central & Bermondsey. If there was real concern about places like Westminster North and Hampstead they would have gone there instead of longer shot marginals.

As to what counts as "winning", that is likely to be more than an abstract philosophical discussion on Friday morning

john_zims · May 2015

@bigjohnowls

Have you heard the leaked Labour proposal to move the basic rate of tax to 25% ?

HYUFD · May 2015

Speedy Clegg has said an EU referendum is not a red line, public spending on education is, so that would not be a problem, the prospect of a Miliband premiership is more of a fear for them, especially as UKIP voters heavily favour a Cameron over Miliband premiership

Neil · May 2015

bigjohnowls said:
roadto326 retweeted
Will Jennings ‏@drjennings 2m2 minutes ago
Will Jennings retweeted Guardian news
Abolishing statutory maternity pay? Wow.

I really doubt SMP will be abolished. The ability of (some?) firms to claim it back from their NI bill on the other hand? That could save a small chunk of the £12bn. (After all the Coalition managed to remove small firms' ability to reclaim SSP from their NI bill with hardly a squeak from anyone.)

Speedy · May 2015

Plato said:
So is it Tories up 2 or not?

Nope, the previous Survation poll was also 34-33.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_general_election

compouter2 · May 2015

Have we had any polls that does not show EICIPM?

Big_G_NorthWales · May 2015

Plato said:
So is it Tories up 2 or not?

up 2 on Survation's daily mail poll

bigjohnowls · May 2015

Plato said:
So is it Tories up 2 or not?

I think so compared to massive Survation

AndreaParma_82 · May 2015

Who where on labourdoostep today

Cooper: Hove, Kemptown, Pavilion, Croydon Central, Bermondsey
Balls: Cardiff Central, South Swindon
Smith: Cardiff Central, Cardiff North
Harriet: Northamton North
Tristam: Chester, Weaver Vale,
Flint: Pudsey
Benn: Bradford West
Twigg: Harrow East
Burnham: Redditch, Worcester, Dudley
Khan: Croydon Central, Battarsea
Dugher: Pudsey, Halifax
Ashworth: Loughborough, Northampton North
Coaker: Sherwood
Maria Eagle: Wirral West
St Helens North candidate: Chester
Jarvis: Bradford
Watson (with Coogan): Brentford, Stevenage, Ealing Central
Hodge: Thurrock
Berger: Finchley
Reed: Croydon Central

Gen Secretary: Swindon South
Jack McConnell: Edinburgh South,
Alastair Campbell: Burnley
McCluskey: Pudsey
Eizzard: Plymouth

Neil · May 2015

Casino_Royale said:

Neil said:

Casino_Royale said:

bigjohnowls said:
Most seats market

LAB into 5.1 from 5.9
Con 1.2 out to 1.23

EICIPM market Mystic Dan does the trick as back to yesterdays levels after DH declares Dave the winner

Dave drifted like a barge in last 3 hours
The DH call is the worst news I've heard this week.
Until you saw Roger call it for Dave, surely.
Sh*t. Did he?

You better believe it.

Plato · May 2015

This is getting confusing!

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Plato said:
So is it Tories up 2 or not?
up 2 on Survation's daily mail poll

HYUFD · May 2015

SeanT The key factor is the UKIP vote, if that drifts back to around 10% the Tories will be on about 37% and certainly largest party

Speedy · May 2015

bigjohnowls said:

Plato said:
So is it Tories up 2 or not?
I think so compared to massive Survation

I wonder if they repeated the special ballot question.

bigjohnowls · May 2015

No change according to Mirror

Big_G_NorthWales · May 2015

Plato said:
This is getting confusing!
Big_G_NorthWales said:

Plato said:
So is it Tories up 2 or not?
up 2 on Survation's daily mail poll

Survation did a poll for the daily mail dated 1-2nd May - labour 34 conservatives 31

Plato · May 2015

More gaiety. mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/robert-blay-ukip-suspends-parliamentary-5641537#ICID=sharebar_twitter

Robert Blay, who is standing in North East Hampshire, made the shocking threat of violence against Conservative Ranil Jayawardena.

Former bank accountant Blay, 55, who used to be a member of the Conservative Party, told our reporter that Jayawardena had been tipped to potentially be the country’s first British Asian Prime Minister.

And in a vile and shocking outburst, he raged: “If he is I will personally put a bullet between his eyes.

"If this lad turns up to be our Prime Minister I will personally put a bullet in him. That’s how strong I feel about it.

“I won’t have this f***** as our Prime Minister. I absolutely loathe him.”

The shocking remarks were made to a Daily Mirror investigator at a public meeting on Saturday attended by party leader Nigel Farage.

A UKIP spokesman said tonight: “"Mr Blay has been suspended with immediate effect".

bigjohnowls · May 2015

compouter2 said:
Have we had any polls that does not show EICIPM?

Last weeks MORI

initforthemoney · May 2015

*pointless poster non-prognostications*

went running yesterday: nine miles. # electoral posters = # machine guns

on the bus to hel(l)ensburgh and back today: # snp placards > # scottish tory und unionist placards > the three lib dem diamonds on one gate such that you could only see them if you were heading in one direction > zero dirty labour placards (= # placards from the party i'll be voting for on thursday)

took the train to the big city. saw a few snp fingys in winders on the way. in the big ass-glow (my friend who christened it thus blew his brains out) city centre there was absolutely no sign of an election. didn't even see a transvestite. but it was raining.

nichomar · May 2015

Wearing my orange tinted sun glasses and seven years of spani Sh beer and wine, possibly coupled with too much sun my take on lib dem prospects are

Scotland hold 4/5 there are reasons but no time to post them
We will lose
Burnley
Withington
Bradford East
May hold berwick but difficult
We will also lose
Cardiff Cental, BristolWest, Wells, Taunton, Somerton&Frome, the one in Norfolk, Brent Central, possibly Redcar
There will be gains, Watford, OXWAB, and possibly two others so net 52/53 gbut that is too silly so I'll settle for 40

Bob__Sykes · May 2015

DavidL said:
Ed Miliband thinks it is still useful to be campaigning in Warwickshire North. Snigger.

He thinks he is losing.

Not somewhere Ed should have even needed to set foot in. If he did, do it early on not 36 hours before polls open. That certainly sends out a signal!

Plato · May 2015

Are you related to @FluffyThoughts ?

initforthemoney said:
*pointless poster non-prognostications*

went running yesterday: nine miles. # electoral posters = # machine guns

on the bus to hel(l)ensburgh and back today: # snp placards > # scottish tory und unionist placards > the three lib dem diamonds on one gate such that you could only see them if you were heading in one direction > zero dirty labour placards (= # placards from the party i'll be voting for on thursday)

took the train to the big city. saw a few snp fingys in winders on the way. in the big ass-glow (my friend who christened it thus blew his brains out) city centre there was absolutely no sign of an election. didn't even see a transvestite. but it was raining.

Casino_Royale · May 2015

AndreaParma_82 said:
Who where on labourdoostep today

Cooper: Hove, Kemptown, Pavilion, Croydon Central, Bermondsey
Balls: Cardiff Central, South Swindon
Smith: Cardiff Central, Cardiff North
Harriet: Northamton North
Tristam: Chester, Weaver Vale,
Flint: Pudsey
Benn: Bradford West
Twigg: Harrow East
Burnham: Redditch, Worcester, Dudley
Khan: Croydon Central, Battarsea
Dugher: Pudsey, Halifax
Ashworth: Loughborough, Northampton North
Coaker: Sherwood
Maria Eagle: Wirral West
St Helens North candidate: Chester
Jarvis: Bradford
Watson (with Coogan): Brentford, Stevenage, Ealing Central
Hodge: Thurrock
Berger: Finchley
Reed: Croydon Central

Gen Secretary: Swindon South
Jack McConnell: Edinburgh South,
Alastair Campbell: Burnley
McCluskey: Pudsey
Eizzard: Plymouth

Is Eddie Izzard now a member of the shadow cabinet?

If not, perhaps he should be. He seems to be their crack legion.

Dair · May 2015

AndreaParma_82 said:
Who where on labourdoostep today

Cooper: Hove, Kemptown, Pavilion, Croydon Central, Bermondsey
Balls: Cardiff Central, South Swindon
Smith: Cardiff Central, Cardiff North
Harriet: Northamton North
Tristam: Chester, Weaver Vale,
Flint: Pudsey
Benn: Bradford West
Twigg: Harrow East
Burnham: Redditch, Worcester, Dudley
Khan: Croydon Central, Battarsea
Dugher: Pudsey, Halifax
Ashworth: Loughborough, Northampton North
Coaker: Sherwood
Maria Eagle: Wirral West
St Helens North candidate: Chester
Jarvis: Bradford
Watson (with Coogan): Brentford, Stevenage, Ealing Central
Hodge: Thurrock
Berger: Finchley
Reed: Croydon Central

Gen Secretary: Swindon South
Jack McConnell: Edinburgh South,
Alastair Campbell: Burnley
McCluskey: Pudsey
Eizzard: Plymouth

The Labour focus on Scotland again seems to be lacking.

Casino_Royale · May 2015

Neil said:

Casino_Royale said:

Neil said:

Casino_Royale said:

bigjohnowls said:
Most seats market

LAB into 5.1 from 5.9
Con 1.2 out to 1.23

EICIPM market Mystic Dan does the trick as back to yesterdays levels after DH declares Dave the winner

Dave drifted like a barge in last 3 hours
The DH call is the worst news I've heard this week.
Until you saw Roger call it for Dave, surely.
Sh*t. Did he?
You better believe it.

Lord. We're screwed.

bigjohnowls · May 2015

nichomar said:
Wearing my orange tinted sun glasses and seven years of spani Sh beer and wine, possibly coupled with too much sun my take on lib dem prospects are

Scotland hold 4/5 there are reasons but no time to post them
We will lose
Burnley
Withington
Bradford East
May hold berwick but difficult
We will also lose
Cardiff Cental, BristolWest, Wells, Taunton, Somerton&Frome, the one in Norfolk, Brent Central, possibly Redcar
There will be gains, Watford, OXWAB, and possibly two others so net 52/53 gbut that is too silly so I'll settle for 40

Possibly Redcar LAB are 1/12

MP_SE · May 2015

UKIP supporter beaten up over sign. Lefties like to go on about the fascist right wingers but I think they should have a long hard look in the mirror.

http://www.bournemouthecho.co.uk/news/12932095.UKIP_supporter__kicked_by_group_of_men__over_election_sign_outside_his_house/

AllyPally_Rob · May 2015

SeanT said:
As predicted by many of us, the polls are herding. They are now almost pointless.

Have all the firms had a chat and decided they'd rather get collective 'egg on their face' if they're wrong?!

Neil · May 2015

Plato said:
More gaiety. mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/robert-blay-ukip-suspends-parliamentary-5641537#ICID=sharebar_twitter

Robert Blay, who is standing in North East Hampshire, made the shocking threat of violence against Conservative Ranil Jayawardena.

Former bank accountant Blay, 55, who used to be a member of the Conservative Party, told our reporter that Jayawardena had been tipped to potentially be the country’s first British Asian Prime Minister.

And in a vile and shocking outburst, he raged: “If he is I will personally put a bullet between his eyes.

"If this lad turns up to be our Prime Minister I will personally put a bullet in him. That’s how strong I feel about it.

“I won’t have this f***** as our Prime Minister. I absolutely loathe him.”

The shocking remarks were made to a Daily Mirror investigator at a public meeting on Saturday attended by party leader Nigel Farage.

A UKIP spokesman said tonight: “"Mr Blay has been suspended with immediate effect".

What is it with UKIP in Hampshire? Dysfunctional doesnt begin to cover it.

HYUFD · May 2015

SeanT UKIP is lower than its peak, and the drift of voters from rightwing parties to Likud in Israel only happened on election day

kle4 · May 2015

How can Labour think they are losing? How bad can their canvassing returns really be telling them they are doing given the rock solid TCTC (equaling a Labour government) of the polls. Silly Labour.

What will be interesting to see (though sadly I will not be around to see it, being at a count), is how disbelieving the pundits and pollsters may be of the exit polls. We have reason to doubt the exit polls more than usual this time apparently, but it'll be fun to see if most people are adamant they will be wrong (If they indicate the LDs holding 40 or something else ridiculous) and then they are almost dead on again.

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