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Tories can't win here either

There has been more than a hint of growing Tory optimism around today. On radio, on TV, among talking heads. Much of the talk was of a continuation Con/Lib Dem coalition.

What's driving this rise in optimism?

Are the Tories happy with the private polling? Or is it a bluff?

We will have room at the Finborough Arms for more people on election night for the PB.com over nighter. 25 tickets sold so far. Drop me an email to finborougharms at gmail.com if you want to join. Just a reminder of the details:

On the night itself the bar will open at 5pm. We’ll start showing the BBC election night coverage when it begins at 10pm on our big screen, but there’ll be rolling news coverage before that.

From 11pm - when the pub closes to the general public and becomes ticket only (£15 a person) - tea, coffee and mineral water are included and there’ll be some bar snacks available too.

Alcoholic drinks can be purchased from the bar throughout the night - we have been granted a 24 hour licence for the 7th/8th May.

We have wifi and 4G coverage and there’s also going to be a back-up wifi account if, for whatever reason, there’s a problem with on the night.

FPT - Huckabee confirms he is running.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/06/us/politics/mike-huckabee-running-in-republican-presidential-primary.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&module=second-column-region&region=top-news&WT.nav=top-news

Shockingly biased interview from the BBC. Instead of discussing tactical voting they ambushed the poor bloke. Heseltine is a real piece of work. Openly insulting someone to their face like that is quite disgusting. He really is several decades past his sell by date.


https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/595566315647148033

AndyJS said:

Last 5 polls, no Labour lead:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2015_United_Kingdom_general_election#2015

The day the polls turned again!

Bob__Sykes said:

This is the killer point from the thread header: "In England & Wales in 2010 the Tories were 10.2% ahead of LAB on voters. It is very hard to discount margins of just two or one now."

Exactly.

And that is why I have been of the view all campaign that unless there was a sustained swing back to the Tories and a pronounced Tory lead, the result would be 40-50 Tory/Lab marginals going back red.

There has been no swing back, and no pronounced Tory lead.

So Labour will sweep through these Tory marginals like a knife through butter.

I currently think that as nothing has shifted, and with a better GOTV, Labour might well win back more than 50 marginals from the Tories on Thursday.

I just don't see how a Tory Party nobbled by UKIP can avoid such losses.

Coming from you, that's quite optimistic.

Kinga said:

Tories can't win here either

Compare this:

https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/594848871144128512/photo/1

With this:

https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/595227883448205312

NoEasyDay said:

AllyPally_Rob said:

NoEasyDay said:

AllyPally_Rob said:

The images from Glasgow of the Nationalist activists are actually quite sad. I went to university in Scotland (Edinburgh) and back then it seemed a far more outward looking place.

From recent visits it seems to have turned inwards become preoccupied with its own national identity, saltires flying everywhere ect. I heard Sturgeon on Radio 2 earlier and they played the proclaimers because its her favourite song apparently, such an obvious and boring choice. I imagine if they'd have asked what her favourite soft drink was she'd have inevitably said Irn-Bru aswell.

Maybe its just me but a country that has to shout about its patriotism doesn't strike me as one that is at ease with itself.

IMHO both Labour and SNP politicians are partly responsible for this, playing up victimisation of the Scots for their own political gain. As a Labour voter I'm saddened to say that.

AllyPally Rob, silly question but do you live by Ally Pally is that in the Wood Green and Hornsey Marginal ? if so what do you think ?

Yes indeed, I'm in Muswell Hill. A month ago I'd have said nailed on LAB Gain, but around my area there's Lynne Fetherstone posters and Boards outnumbering Labour one's 3-1 I'd say.

It'll come down to 500 votes either way I'd guess. LAB have to get their vote in Wood Green and 'down the hill' out, because i don't think the Champagne Lefty's have deserted Fetherstone as I thought they would. Also depends what the Tory vote does in areas like Highgate.

I am tempted to have a flutter on Featherstone, I have gut feeling she will hold on. And Wood Green and Hornsey is now an outpost of eastern europe I suspect most not registered to vote.
Spent much of my mis-spent youth getting rat ars*d in the pubs of Hornsey and Muswell hill, ahhh happy days.

Yeah probably not a bad bet tbh. My gut say's she'll somehow hang on. I think people around here have long memories and I don't think the previous Labour MP did her party any favours.

FYI you'll be pleased to know I have carried on that drinking tradition

Remember the Golden Rule, whichever poll is the worst for Labour is the right one. 2010 can be regarded as the exception which proves the rule.

Richard_Tyndall said:

Carnyx said:

MikeK said:

Carnyx said:

MikeK said:

AllyPally_Rob said:

The images from Glasgow of the Nationalist activists are actually quite sad. I went to university in Scotland (Edinburgh) and back then it seemed a far more outward looking place.

From recent visits it seems to have turned inwards become preoccupied with its own national identity, saltires flying everywhere ect. I heard Sturgeon on Radio 2 earlier and they played the proclaimers because its her favourite song apparently, such an obvious and boring choice. I imagine if they'd have asked what her favourite soft drink was she'd have inevitably said Irn-Bru aswell.

Maybe its just me but a country that has to shout about its patriotism doesn't strike me as one that is at ease with itself.

IMHO both Labour and SNP politicians are partly responsible for this, playing up victimisation of the Scots for their own political gain. As a Labour voter I'm saddened to say that.

Only a few months ago Labour, SNP , L/Dems and Tory PBers were quite happy to have Nigel Farage attacked by the rent-a-mob in Glasgow, and many were quite gleeful. How does it feel now that the boots on the other foot and these thugs are attacking Labour and will probably attack Tories in the future too?

In Glasgow?!

Can you provide a reference for that incident, please? I wonder if you have got the city, the parties, and the 'attack' wrong. Edit: if you recall it as being in a pub then please say so as that fixes it nicely.

It happened in the EU election last year and was widely published because - laughably - Farage was forced into a pub for protection.

Ah, thanks. That fixes it - it was the one in the Royal Mile in Edinburgh. IIRC it was a leftie demo and the two who were arrested were either Labour and/or fron south of the border. Nothing to do with the SNP, though many tried to claim that they orchestrated it.

If you bother to read Mike's comment you will see he did not claim it was the SNP doing the attack. What he said was that it was the SNP supporters on here along with Labour, Lib Dem and Tory supporters who were quite happy to see Farage attacked. In that assertion he is absolutely correct.

Thanks. On checking back, I see what you mean - but MIke's plural "L/Dems" had made me think he meant party members in general for Labour, SNP and LDs and then Tory Pbers alone - ambiguous admittedly. In any case what I also recalled was that those demonstrators - hardly thugs - were themselves Labour insofar as they had any party affiliation with a major party.

At the time I was more irritated by the bad reporting and the attempt to blame the Yes campaign!

MP_SE said:

Shockingly biased interview from the BBC. Instead of discussing tactical voting they ambushed the poor bloke. Heseltine is a real piece of work. Openly insulting someone to their face like that is quite disgusting. He really is several decades past his sell by date.


https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/595566315647148033

This is a truly bizarre interview.

MonikerDiCanio said:

Remember the Golden Rule, whichever poll is the worst for Labour is the right one. 2010 can be regarded as the exception which proves the rule.

Hmm, not quite. The 2012 London mayoral election (see previous thread) didn't follow this rule.

Labour's GOTV machine is by far the best of any political party - this has to be factored in.

MonikerDiCanio said:

Remember the Golden Rule, whichever poll is the worst for Labour is the right one. 2010 can be regarded as the exception which proves the rule.

No polls show that the Tories will have enough seats for a coalition.

And Mori is the last one that shows a Tory lead sufficient enough for most seats.
If Mori moves to back towards the rest of the polls then no poll will show the Tories with most seats.

The Fat Lady is warming up.

FPT on Russian demographics - the population increase is almost entirely driven by immigration - go to Moscow and see all the Uzbeks and Mongolians - there are whole million plus cities in Siberia populated by immigrants from China

coincidentally after Putin announced his policy in 2008 of increasing the population the national stats body has been recording a small decline in early male deaths (a big problem) and a small rise in births to Russian ethnic women

Plato said:

Why? It's up to each party to fight for their own - not soft-peddling if there isn't a formal agreement to do so.

I'd be peed off if I thought in a tight marginal my Party wasn't going full tilt at it.

Tabman said:

Fenster said:

There has been more than a hint of growing Tory optimism around today. On radio, on TV, among talking heads. Much of the talk was of a continuation Con/Lib Dem coalition.

What's driving this rise in optimism?

Are the Tories happy with the private polling? Or is it a bluff?

If they're planning to continue the coalition then they should be soft peddling in LD held seats.

It's his best chance of remaining in government.

when do you think the Tories will finally go for pr and we can get in with building a centre right liberal conservative party?

I see the PB election night party has made it into this publication just above the party att the Bethnal Green working men's club..

http://www.totalpolitics.com/blog/449056/seven-of-londons-best-election-night-party-venues.thtml

The key issue is the UKIP vote, based on populus if the Tories squeeze the 13% UKIP score down to 10% they get to 37%, the same as 2010, if Labour is on 33-34% that is a gain of about 4% from 2010, a swing of 2% meaning about 30-40 Labour gains in England and Wales. Assuming Labour lose 35 seats in Scotland that would mean a net labour gain of around 5 seats while if the Tories gain 15-20 LD seats that means net losses of about 15-20 seats, leaving Labour on about 260-265 seats and the Tories on about 286-295 seats and the largest party

Are Labour losing?

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/05/are-labour-losing

Speedy said:

3. Tory voters get demoralized by the impending defeat and vote UKIP in protest.

Not going to happen if the media coverage continues to be so upbeat for Tories

Bruce Millington (@brucemillington)
05/05/2015 17:35
There's a 16-page general election betting special in tomorrow's Racing Post.

Sean_F said:

Bob__Sykes said:

This is the killer point from the thread header: "In England & Wales in 2010 the Tories were 10.2% ahead of LAB on voters. It is very hard to discount margins of just two or one now."

Exactly.

And that is why I have been of the view all campaign that unless there was a sustained swing back to the Tories and a pronounced Tory lead, the result would be 40-50 Tory/Lab marginals going back red.

There has been no swing back, and no pronounced Tory lead.

So Labour will sweep through these Tory marginals like a knife through butter.

I currently think that as nothing has shifted, and with a better GOTV, Labour might well win back more than 50 marginals from the Tories on Thursday.

I just don't see how a Tory Party nobbled by UKIP can avoid such losses.

Coming from you, that's quite optimistic.

Why so?

I've stuck to my guns and been consistent all campaign - 40-50 Tory-held marginals lost, mitigated by c.10 Tory gains from the LDs, and 2-3 other surprise Tory gains elsewhere. Either way, leaving the Tories marooned on about 270-275 give or take.

I think my only posted prediction on here was something like Con 274 and Lab 296 - I now think both will come in around 265-270 and 285-290 respectively. If Labour are decimated in Scotland, then it will obviously be closer depending on the scale of the massacre I still doubt is going to happen - but it will only mean more SNP seats to lock out Cameron.

I think only a UKIP collapse, or at least Lab>UKIP defectors staying firm massively across England, can really get the Tories in front. And I think if UKIPers really were frit with the SNP or Miliband threats, that would have fed through to the pollsters by now.

Stereotomy said:

Speedy said:

3. Tory voters get demoralized by the impending defeat and vote UKIP in protest.

Not going to happen if the media coverage continues to be so upbeat for Tories

?
The media coverage is predicting another hung parliament. Why vote Lab/Con if they're not going to win?

Tissue_Price said:

Are Labour losing?

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/05/are-labour-losing

We know that they are winning.
Or at least the Tories will be kicked out of power in 48hrs.

Speedy said:

Tissue_Price said:

Are Labour losing?

http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/05/are-labour-losing

We know that they are winning.
Or at least the Tories will be kicked out of power in 48hrs.

On 30% of the vote?

isam said:

Pulpstar said:

isam said:

The groupthink mike speaks of assumes Ukip will get 2-3 seats from a double figure vote share too

UKIP's problem is that it isn't doing nearly badly enough in it's no hoper seats. The vast array of 2nd places in the North should give a solid base for GE2020 though.

I expect 3 or 4 seats for UKIP this time round.

Betting wise id take that

Think your twitters been hacked

Thanks, deleted the tweets. My twitter constantly follows random people tho !

MikeK said:

MikeK's forecast for the GE......:

Con 29% Lab 28% UKIP 21% L/Dem 7% SNP 5% Grn 3% Others 7%

Travelled around Hampstead and Camden Town this morning and the absence of posters and billboards is striking. I saw one window in Camden displaying a vote Labour poster; just one in miles of streets in this Labour London heartland. Uncanny! It's as if people have decided to vote - if at all - in silence.

Thats why I believe a silent revolution, utterly British, is in the making.

In Eastleigh I have only seen one UKIP poster

Plato said:

Without diverting the thread onto incredibly dull voting reform - I'd go for STV of one sort or another - never PR.

Tabman said:

Plato said:

Why? It's up to each party to fight for their own - not soft-peddling if there isn't a formal agreement to do so.

I'd be peed off if I thought in a tight marginal my Party wasn't going full tilt at it.

Tabman said:

Fenster said:

There has been more than a hint of growing Tory optimism around today. On radio, on TV, among talking heads. Much of the talk was of a continuation Con/Lib Dem coalition.

What's driving this rise in optimism?

Are the Tories happy with the private polling? Or is it a bluff?

If they're planning to continue the coalition then they should be soft peddling in LD held seats.

It's his best chance of remaining in government.

when do you think the Tories will finally go for pr and we can get in with building a centre right liberal conservative party?

Single Transferable Vote is a form of PR (in fact, the form of PR preferred by many academics) - or have they changed the definition?

Lord A obviously not keen on a 32-30 final prediction!

Lord Ashcroft ‏@LordAshcroft

You haven't seen the last of the ANP. My final 3,000-sample pre-election phone poll will be published on Thursday morning on @ConHome

Bob__Sykes said:

Sean_F said:

Bob__Sykes said:

This is the killer point from the thread header: "In England & Wales in 2010 the Tories were 10.2% ahead of LAB on voters. It is very hard to discount margins of just two or one now."

Exactly.

And that is why I have been of the view all campaign that unless there was a sustained swing back to the Tories and a pronounced Tory lead, the result would be 40-50 Tory/Lab marginals going back red.

There has been no swing back, and no pronounced Tory lead.

So Labour will sweep through these Tory marginals like a knife through butter.

I currently think that as nothing has shifted, and with a better GOTV, Labour might well win back more than 50 marginals from the Tories on Thursday.

I just don't see how a Tory Party nobbled by UKIP can avoid such losses.

Coming from you, that's quite optimistic.

Why so?

I've stuck to my guns and been consistent all campaign - 40-50 Tory-held marginals lost, mitigated by c.10 Tory gains from the LDs, and 2-3 other surprise Tory gains elsewhere. Either way, leaving the Tories marooned on about 270-275 give or take.

I think my only posted prediction on here was something like Con 274 and Lab 296 - I now think both will come in around 265-270 and 285-290 respectively. If Labour are decimated in Scotland, then it will obviously be closer depending on the scale of the massacre I still doubt is going to happen - but it will only mean more SNP seats to lock out Cameron.

I think only a UKIP collapse, or at least Lab>UKIP defectors staying firm massively across England, can really get the Tories in front. And I think if UKIPers really were frit with the SNP or Miliband threats, that would have fed through to the pollsters by now.

The problem was that UKIP was never going to be squeezed that much, because it's core is hatred towards Cameron and the other moderate Blairites of the coalition.

When a party splits, the hatred towards the sister rival party exceeds the hatred towards the opposite political parties. The example was the Alliance, the Labour voters that left for the Alliance didn't return until Clegg got into bed with Cameron, 29 years later.

Tissue_Price said:

Lord A obviously not keen on a 32-30 final prediction!

Lord Ashcroft ‏@LordAshcroft

You haven't seen the last of the ANP. My final 3,000-sample pre-election phone poll will be published on Thursday morning on @ConHome

Is polling information allowed to be published on the day, before polls close?

Danny565 said:

Tissue_Price said:

Lord A obviously not keen on a 32-30 final prediction!

Lord Ashcroft ‏@LordAshcroft

You haven't seen the last of the ANP. My final 3,000-sample pre-election phone poll will be published on Thursday morning on @ConHome

Is polling information allowed to be published on the day, before polls close?

Yes, it's a free country. Exit polling - no.

Speedy Polls have shown about 50% of UKIP voters are ex Tories, more than double ex Labour voters, and there is still plenty of scope for squeezing their total in the key marginals with the EU referendum issue and the prospect of the SNP key inducements

Casino_Royale said:

I don't know if this has been commented yet on here, or not, but the Evening Standard has come out for the Tories tonight.

It's been assumed for a while I'd have thought, those who are unkind suggest that Lebvedev is rather protective of his non-dom status. It backed Boris in 2012 and has very much always been Cameroon in its columnist's political hue. The Independent's rather strange attempt to come out for the coalition without annoying its left-wing readership should've given some indication if there were any doubt.

Anecdote alert:

I was just chatting to two acquaintances from the Midlands (not Nick P's ex-or-possibly-soon-to-be parish) who had already postal voted. They were tempted by UKIP, but had voted for the incumbent Conservative because she had responded to the few things they had emailed her, and had actually escalated one issue.

Incumbency does matter.

Their views on Miliband were (ahem) somewhat stronger than mine ...

Sunil_Prasannan said:

RobD said:

Disappointing polls for this PB Tory. Looking forward to the big night...

Last five polls (in field work terms) - three Con leads and two ties

This PB Tory would have liked 20 point Con leads....

On the day of Miliband's big pre-election interview for the BBC 6 o'clock news he gets juxtaposed with Powell and her comments

Ted Miliband

Darren McCaffrey (@DMcCaffreySKY)
05/05/2015 18:07
MT @FredianiITV: VIDEO: @Ed_Miliband's first TV appearance during student rent strike in 1991: itv.com/news/meridian/… pic.twitter.com/kmnbgrTwoi

MikeK said:

MikeK's forecast for the GE......:

Con 29% Lab 28% UKIP 21% L/Dem 7% SNP 5% Grn 3% Others 7%

Travelled around Hampstead and Camden Town this morning and the absence of posters and billboards is striking. I saw one window in Camden displaying a vote Labour poster; just one in miles of streets in this Labour London heartland. Uncanny! It's as if people have decided to vote - if at all - in silence.

Thats why I believe a silent revolution, utterly British, is in the making.

We see what we want to see. I think your predictions re. UKIP are massively over-optimistic, but if you're right and I'm wrong then you should surely be lauded as the PB prophet that finally showed JackW his ARSE ... ;-)

Anyone know what is going on with the South Thanet odds? Tory and Labour odds are lengthening. The UKIP odds look way way too short.

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/thanet-south/winning-party

And another one's down
And another one's down
Labour ain't got no seats

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h4biL1Act6I

RobD said:

Sunil_Prasannan said:

RobD said:

Disappointing polls for this PB Tory. Looking forward to the big night...

Last five polls (in field work terms) - three Con leads and two ties

This PB Tory would have liked 20 point Con leads....

Sgt. Sunil: All right, sweethearts, you're a team and there's nothin' to worry about. We come here, and we gonna conquer, and we gonna kick some, is that understood? That's what we gonna do, sweethearts, we are going to go and get some. All right, people, on the ready line! Are ya lean?

PB Tories: Yeah!

Sgt. Sunil: Are ya mean?

PB Tories: YEAH!

Sgt. Sunil: WHAT ARE YOU?

PB Tories: LEAN AND MEAN!

Sgt. Sunil: WHAT ARE YOU? Rob D! Get on the ready line, PB Tories, get some today! Get on the ready line! Move it out! Move it out, goddammit! Get hot! One, two, three, four! Get out, get out, get out! Move it out, move it out, move it out! Move it out, move it out, move it out! One, two, three, four, five, six, seven! Aaarrrrr, absolutely badasses! Let's pack 'em in! Get in there!

Pulpstar said:

isam said:

The groupthink mike speaks of assumes Ukip will get 2-3 seats from a double figure vote share too

UKIP's problem is that it isn't doing nearly badly enough in it's no hoper seats. The vast array of 2nd places in the North should give a solid base for GE2020 though.

I expect 3 or 4 seats for UKIP this time round.

Thanet, Clacton and Thurrock I assume. Plus R&S or Boston?

A reduced UKIP vote leaves some 'interesting' odds on what are now fairly safe Tory seats.

Labour has never seen itself as the natural party of government in this country. It is perennially pessimistic about its chances, something which also affects the way it governs. What happened in I992 probably stung the party more than any other election it has ever contested.

I suspect there is a bit of that in the NS article, but I also believe that Labour is going to significantly under-perform the UNS numbers. A lot of sitting Labour MPs will increase their majorities, the Labour vote share will go up, but gains against both the LDs and Tories will be relatively light and certainly nowhere near enough for Labour to be the largest party.

rural_voter said:

Pulpstar said:

isam said:

The groupthink mike speaks of assumes Ukip will get 2-3 seats from a double figure vote share too

UKIP's problem is that it isn't doing nearly badly enough in it's no hoper seats. The vast array of 2nd places in the North should give a solid base for GE2020 though.

I expect 3 or 4 seats for UKIP this time round.

Thanet, Clacton and Thurrock I assume. Plus R&S or Boston?

A reduced UKIP vote leaves some 'interesting' odds on what are now fairly safe Tory seats.

You'd have to go with R&S for the fourth I think due to incumbency factor. The youngish Boston candidate may well cost UKIP the seat unfortunately.

MP_SE said:

Anyone know what is going on with the South Thanet odds? Tory and Labour odds are lengthening. The UKIP odds look way way too short.

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/thanet-south/winning-party

Yesterday's Sheffield Hallam poll which named the candidates and provided a boost for Captain Titanic there, that's what happened.

OGH has a theory that naming the candidates will provide a boost for Clegg, Murphy and Farage in the polls, ICM has aided him on that.

The increasing confidence of the conservatives must be from their polling returns and it does seem that labour have lost some of their confidence. It is understandable on a betting site that every poll is scrutinised for confirmation of a posters view but having canvassed elections previously I would put my faith in the responses and certainly would be either confident or downhearted at the likely outcome by this time in the election and this could account for the confidence of the conservatives at this late stage