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Trivia question - what brand of bread are you? Allinson's? Do they still exist?
I do like the Stallone Warburton's one - a rare example of celeb endorsement working. Arnie and Meerkats is terrible.With_nowt_taken_out said:After a few days split between a northern Lab/Con marginal and a southern Con/ Lib marginal, for me it feels we have 4 key 'pots' of voters that will determine the outcome.
1. About 25% of the UKIP voters are toying with voting Conservative- SNP, economy, EdM are making them think hard
2. Labour voters who didn't vote last time and who may or may not vote this time
3. Labour voters who don't like Edm -They may stay at home, vote green or even a few vote tory
4 Labour voters who have lent their votes to the lib dem over the last few years. A number of these are unsure who they vote for this time
The first 3 will determine the outcome and the 4th will decide a number of Con/ Lib marginal- I guess in 54hrs we will know the answer to the puzzle.0 -
4.2% England only swing is not only EICIPM but with as little as 5 seats in Scotland Labour almost certainly party with highest seats. I would like to know how the odds have changed.bigjohnowls said:4.2% England only swing.
Thats an EICIPM swing IMO
Most seats on a knife edge Glad i am not on at 1/5
In SPIN after going on a 28 lead with big Tory money following Thursday's QT, SPIN has now back to 24. UKIP is also edging downwards.0 -
The main two parties are proper popular aren't they !!!!Tissue_Price said:Lord Ashcroft @LordAshcroft
Ashcroft National Poll, 1-3 May: CON 32%, LAB 30%, LDEM 11%, UKIP 12%, GRN 7%. Details (and focus group report) on @ConHome, 4pm.0 -
I have been YouGov'd twice in three weeks..0
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Lord A
England: Con: 35; LAB 32; LD 10; UKIP 13; Gn 7;
Appear to be a huge number of Labour votes in the North - Labour piling them up where they are not so much needed?
2010 LDs seem to have recovered a lot of RedLDs
Scotland sub-sample is far too small:
SNP: 53;
LAB: 21
LD: 18
Green: 5
Cons: 2!
Are Cons supporting LDs against the SNP?0 -
Facebook launches 'I'm a voter' button: Tool will let users tell friends they have voted in the UK General Election
Button will appear on May 7 to UK Facebook users of voting age
'I'm a voter' tool is designed to encourage people to vote in the election
Study claims button was responsible for 300,000 votes in the US in 2010
Facebook also revealed that the Economy is the most mentioned election issue, followed by Europe and Immigration and Health
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-3068830/Facebook-launches-m-voter-button-Tool-let-users-tell-friends-voted-UK-General-Election.html#ixzz3ZHIjpvtP
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I predicted Labour would get 30.5% yesterday and Lord Ashcroft todays says 30%.0
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I've just had an e-mail from Samantha Cameron, thanking me for everything I've done. Wasn't aware I'd done anything.
Why are they getting their spouses involved ? Does it really help.0 -
Since you know the Northern figures, what are the Southern ones or even the Midland's.Financier said:Lord A
England: Con: 35; LAB 32; LD 10; UKIP 13; Gn 7;
Appear to be a huge number of Labour votes in the North - Labour piling them up where they are not so much needed?
2010 LDs seem to have recovered a lot of RedLDs
Scotland sub-sample is far too small:
SNP: 53;
LAB: 21
LD: 18
Green: 5
Cons: 2!
Are Cons supporting LDs against the SNP?0 -
Cons low outlier in the subsample. You get alot with a ~ 100 sample size, the MoE is enormous too.Financier said:Lord A
England: Con: 35; LAB 32; LD 10; UKIP 13; Gn 7;
Appear to be a huge number of Labour votes in the North - Labour piling them up where they are not so much needed?
2010 LDs seem to have recovered a lot of RedLDs
Scotland sub-sample is far too small:
SNP: 53;
LAB: 21
LD: 18
Green: 5
Cons: 2!
Are Cons supporting LDs against the SNP?
Con vote share Scotland will probably be ~ 15% on the day. Their normal 16.7 odd% and 1.7% heading off tactically mainly anti-SNP or so.0 -
Whatever.chestnut said:
30%.Casino_Royale said:In hindsight, the October conferences were poor for the Tories. Ed bombing with his leader's speech made people believe he truly was crap, forgetting the deficit and immigration, and they got complacent about that.
They truly didn't expect him to bounce back from that. And he did and he has.
Labour will get enough votes to put Ed in as PM. Labour truly are the Teflon party and most working class British people seem to naturally gravitate towards them unless they are truly and demonstrably sh*te.
The Tories still have a terrible branding and image problem. Despite many tactical victories within this campaign by the Tories, and fighting on their preferred ground of the economy and the SNP, Labour still haven't been beaten down.
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A crusty malted granary from a villlage baker. Yes Allinsons do exist.Plato said:
Trivia question - what brand of bread are you? Allinson's? Do they still exist?
I do like the Stallone Warburton's one - a rare example of celeb endorsement working. Arnie and Meerkats is terrible.With_nowt_taken_out said:After a few days split between a northern Lab/Con marginal and a southern Con/ Lib marginal, for me it feels we have 4 key 'pots' of voters that will determine the outcome.
1. About 25% of the UKIP voters are toying with voting Conservative- SNP, economy, EdM are making them think hard
2. Labour voters who didn't vote last time and who may or may not vote this time
3. Labour voters who don't like Edm -They may stay at home, vote green or even a few vote tory
4 Labour voters who have lent their votes to the lib dem over the last few years. A number of these are unsure who they vote for this time
The first 3 will determine the outcome and the 4th will decide a number of Con/ Lib marginal- I guess in 54hrs we will know the answer to the puzzle.0 -
I think Survation is due tomorrow. I think the only other poll we'll see tonight is YouGov.Daniel said:Survation and YouGov
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Pick the middle, LOL! You haven't really grasped this polling thing have you?chestnut said:Labour on 30 for the third week running.
Tories on 2% in Scotland.
Last three weeks the Tories have been 34,36,32. Pick the middle.
The E+W regional swings are 2.6 or lower in the last couple of weeks.0 -
Not if the spouse wins.Itwasrigged said:
If he is married then he is getting the frying pan on his crown when the wife squeals and hisses " How much?"MonikerDiCanio said:
And Aberdonians are very careful with their money..Scott_P said:@LadPolitics: Could Alex Salmond be in trouble? One Aberdonian has just had £3,000 on the Lib Dems to win Gordon at 5/1. Latest odds
1/6 #snp
7/2 #libdems
Eck's rejection would be a moment of exquisite bliss.
Sturgeon has shown what a drag Salmond was on the SNP, he may well fail in Gordon amidst an SNP landslide. Heartbreaking.0 -
Just looked at the Populus poll, they've done another spiral of silence thing, like they did on Friday. But they are an ONLINE poll!0
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3.5% swing in England and Wales from Conservative to Labour. If that were uniform, that would result in 41 Labour gains from the Conservatives (assuming that Thurrock goes to UKIP). Factoring in gains from the Lib Dems, and losses to UKIP, that would leave both parties in the 270s.0
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I make my own. I make soaked bread - I let the flour sit with the water with some lemon juice or cider vinegar overnight before adding the other ingredients and baking as normal.Plato said:Trivia question - what brand of bread are you? Allinson's? Do they still exist?
I do like the Stallone Warburton's one - a rare example of celeb endorsement working. Arnie and Meerkats is terrible.With_nowt_taken_out said:After a few days split between a northern Lab/Con marginal and a southern Con/ Lib marginal, for me it feels we have 4 key 'pots' of voters that will determine the outcome.
1. About 25% of the UKIP voters are toying with voting Conservative- SNP, economy, EdM are making them think hard
2. Labour voters who didn't vote last time and who may or may not vote this time
3. Labour voters who don't like Edm -They may stay at home, vote green or even a few vote tory
4 Labour voters who have lent their votes to the lib dem over the last few years. A number of these are unsure who they vote for this time
The first 3 will determine the outcome and the 4th will decide a number of Con/ Lib marginal- I guess in 54hrs we will know the answer to the puzzle.
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Bank holiday impact...just saying..0
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I don't dispute Sheffield Hallam, I am saying its a bad example Cleggs fizhog is on the box every night of course every man and his dog knows him. But that doesn't mean it would be the same anywhere else.Pulpstar said:
And when he isn't named, he is BEHIND.NoEasyDay said:
Thats a poor example even the cats in Sheffield Hallam know Nick Clegg.Pulpstar said:
Sorry but the Sheffield Hallam result was clearly statistically different when you name the candidates. A single question naming the candidates with no prior questions, simply is the best approach.NoEasyDay said:
I haven't done statistics for a long while BUT what do you think the odds of getting a fair representation of those 3% is in a single poll.Pulpstar said:
If it makes no difference in 97% of cases, it makes no difference. But the 3% may well count.NoEasyDay said:
Jeesus do you really think people know the candidates. Naming them would just confuse the f*ck out of people. I would guess 99% of people don't even know the name of their MP or their constituency.Pulpstar said:
1 Question - name the candidates. That is all.OblitusSumMe said:
Only because Ashcroft has spent an enormous sum of money on his polling and if it turns out not to be all that accurate we might never see the like again.Casino_Royale said:Anyone else nervous about The Ashcroft?
You can do it unnamed before they're known but after - simply name them.
And only ICM has done it in Hallam. If any pollsters are listening it clearly is the best method.
You vote for "Candidate ABC of XYZ Constituency" at the polling booth, not an individual candidate or an individual party.
Everyone and their dog SHOULD know Clegg is the Lib Dem PPC for Hallam. Those answering the poll all probably do so. But when he is named, some will switch their answer to him. My guess is it'd be the same at the ballot box. When he isn't named they'll answer Conservative, even though they know "Nick Clegg" is standing.
I agree - It really, really shouldn't be the case. But it is. @JackW is quite right on this matter.
Most other places would have anonymous short fat bald candidates no-ones ever heard of.0 -
Lib dems up a bit - tactical tory-->lib-dem voting to keep out LabourFrancisUrquhart said:
The main two parties are proper popular aren't they !!!!Tissue_Price said:Lord Ashcroft @LordAshcroft
Ashcroft National Poll, 1-3 May: CON 32%, LAB 30%, LDEM 11%, UKIP 12%, GRN 7%. Details (and focus group report) on @ConHome, 4pm.0 -
Cybernatting on the web is one thing, doing it for the video camera's isn't so much fun as the SNP are finding out....SouthamObserver said:
Expect Labour to be taking to the streets more often - with the cameras.0 -
It's all down to the GOTV operation on Thursday I think. Lab/Con figures seem too low to me.Sean_F said:3.5% swing in England and Wales from Conservative to Labour. If that were uniform, that would result in 43 Labour gains from the Conservatives. Factoring in gains from the Lib Dems, and losses to UKIP, that would leave both parties in the 270s.
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Labour are really struggling to get much over 30. Cameron not doing much better than Hague or IDS despite the far more favourable circumstances.0
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Folls and their money are easy partedMonikerDiCanio said:
Not if the spouse wins.Itwasrigged said:
If he is married then he is getting the frying pan on his crown when the wife squeals and hisses " How much?"MonikerDiCanio said:
And Aberdonians are very careful with their money..Scott_P said:@LadPolitics: Could Alex Salmond be in trouble? One Aberdonian has just had £3,000 on the Lib Dems to win Gordon at 5/1. Latest odds
1/6 #snp
7/2 #libdems
Eck's rejection would be a moment of exquisite bliss.
Sturgeon has shown what a drag Salmond was on the SNP, he may well fail in Gordon amidst an SNP landslide. Heartbreaking.0 -
Terrible poll in all honesty. Those still backing Tories most seats at 1/5 are a lot braver than me. I think we can probably get over the line but if the polls are right it's looking very very close.
Fallout Friday could see carnage similar to the collapse of Lehman Bros if there is any suggestion Miliband and the SNP are taking over.0 -
That is such an ancient point - I posted on here feeling compelled to join the Tories in June of 2013 to make sure EdM wasn't PM at my hand.
Do keep up!
BTW - are you still single? IIRC you had quite an aversion to the institution of marriage full stop.SandyRentool said:0 -
Thanks for the link - an interesting, thoughtful analysis. I've had some interesting convos with non-politicos recently, e.g. at a wedding this weekend just gone, and there was a lot of resignation and lethargy about voting - all "well I suppose I'l have to vote for [x]", nobody energised at all (not even a couple of Green voters who knew their votes were entirely protest).Prodicus said:Tour de force analysis at Open Democracy. Make a cuppa - it's a meaty 10 minute read. His conclusion's in the URL but never mind that - he has many chunky points of significant (imo) detail on, e.g., McVey et al implications. Much of it is familiar ground for PB-ers but there's something juicy for everyone (except Ed.) Inter alia: 'Labour PLP do not want office right now even if Ed does.' (Wild paraphrase by me.)
https://www.opendemocracy.net/ourkingdom/shaun-lawson/polls-and-most-of-forecasts-are-wrong-ed-miliband-will-not-be-next-prime-min
I'm starting to be persuaded that this devil-you-know lethargy will result in a another Con-LD coalition, albeit ybewith slightly less LD empowerment (maybe oversight over one or two policy areas - education? - with no return to the 'Quad' power-broking arrangement) and a C&S deal with the DUP. I don't think there will be popular acceptance of a government that doesn't involve the party with the most seats, even if it's just by a small margin of five or ten.
There's also the important factor of simultaneous local elections providing an outlet for protest voting vs the pragmatic/tactical vote for the MP.
Scotland, of course, is another matter entirely and the SNP phenomenon will be digested for years to come. I'm still not entirely sure what a bloc of 50 nats would actually do in Westminster, given that most of their constituency work is carried out at SNP level, nobody will share power with them and they won't vote on things that don't affect Scotland.
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Without that, would Labour be ahead?Sunil_Prasannan said:Just looked at the Populus poll, they've done another spiral of silence thing, like they did on Friday. But they are an ONLINE poll!
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@dhothersall: SNP forced to suspend another SNP member who definitely wasn't an SNP member & everyone knows is a unionist MI5 plant working for JK Rowling0
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LOL, you boys are a hoot , two idiots suspended for shouting. These southern jessies , aka Murphy , are not real politicians.TGOHF said:
Deja vu - just like the Cons haven't targeted Farage, Lab now see that Saint Nicola is beyond reproach - so go after the activists and the fringites - toxify the party one by one until the mud sticks.Scott_P said:@steve_hawkes: SNP has now suspended two people caught up in yesterday's scuffle with Jim Murphy... Sturgeon holds to line that nothing to do with them
Of course to work, the nutters have to be there - and just like Ukip they are ..0 -
35/34 to say 31/32 seems quite likely, really can't see Conservatives over 36 or Labour over 33.0
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Well, if you accept that there will be random variation from poll to poll rather than blindly reading the last set of numbers you might spot a trend.OllyT said:Pick the middle, LOL! You haven't really grasped this polling thing have you?
You really haven't grasped this polling thing, have you?
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I can't fault the Tories GOTV email/Twitter efforts - I've been sent something almost every day with a message, thanks, request/gratitude for help/donation.NoEasyDay said:
I've just had an e-mail from Samantha Cameron, thanking me for everything I've done. Wasn't aware I'd done anything.
Why are they getting their spouses involved ? Does it really help.0 -
S East:surbiton said:
Since you know the Northern figures, what are the Southern ones or even the Midland's.Financier said:Lord A
England: Con: 35; LAB 32; LD 10; UKIP 13; Gn 7;
Appear to be a huge number of Labour votes in the North - Labour piling them up where they are not so much needed?
2010 LDs seem to have recovered a lot of RedLDs
Scotland sub-sample is far too small:
SNP: 53;
LAB: 21
LD: 18
Green: 5
Cons: 2!
Are Cons supporting LDs against the SNP?
Cons: 44
LAB: 25
LD: 10;
UKIP:10;
Green: 11
Midlands:
Cons: 36
LAB: 27
LD: 7
UKIP: 16
Green: 7
North:
Cons: 24
LAB: 51
LD: 7
UKIP: 12
Green: 5
Wales & SW
Cons: 30
LAB: 21
LD: 17
UKIP: 16
Green: 9
PC:40 -
As far as I can tell, it made no difference.murali_s said:
Without that, would Labour be ahead?Sunil_Prasannan said:Just looked at the Populus poll, they've done another spiral of silence thing, like they did on Friday. But they are an ONLINE poll!
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Take Taiwan's, HK or Singapore's GDP per capita and times it by China's population. It's a Chinese century, the one after too.SeanT said:Brilliant little vid from the Economist, charting the rise and fall of great powers. Shows how China's return to supremacy is reversion to type
http://econ.st/1EO6fuJ0 -
If you mean the markets would absolutely agree.trublue said:Terrible poll in all honesty. Those still backing Tories most seats at 1/5 are a lot braver than me. I think we can probably get over the line but if the polls are right it's looking very very close.
Fallout Friday could see carnage similar to the collapse of Lehman Bros if there is any suggestion Miliband and the SNP are taking over.0 -
Excluding the North and Scotland results, Ashcroft looks very positive for Con in Midlands, SW, and South (including London).0
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Is he Scottish Resistance guy?SouthamObserver said:
No, he was there yesterday too. He was in the photo I posted and you said was "desperate stuff". But I do accept you truly believe otherwise.Dair said:
Seems second person was at a protest against Brown today and not involved yesterday. Some press getting confused so I guess that's why you're making the mistake.SouthamObserver said:That's two SNP members suspended after SLab's haranguing of Murphy and Izzard yesterday. I blame MI5.
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If I were Jim, I'd campaign outside malcy towers - see if you were man enough to come out and froth on tv.malcolmg said:
LOL, you boys are a hoot , two idiots suspended for shouting. These southern jessies , aka Murphy , are not real politicians.TGOHF said:
Deja vu - just like the Cons haven't targeted Farage, Lab now see that Saint Nicola is beyond reproach - so go after the activists and the fringites - toxify the party one by one until the mud sticks.Scott_P said:@steve_hawkes: SNP has now suspended two people caught up in yesterday's scuffle with Jim Murphy... Sturgeon holds to line that nothing to do with them
Of course to work, the nutters have to be there - and just like Ukip they are ..0 -
Can't beat Allinson's as was to make a banana sandwich - and a warm granary fresh roll filled with hot roast chicken and mayonnaise. YUMMY
Financier said:A crusty malted granary from a villlage baker. Yes Allinsons do exist.
Plato said:Trivia question - what brand of bread are you? Allinson's? Do they still exist?
I do like the Stallone Warburton's one - a rare example of celeb endorsement working. Arnie and Meerkats is terrible.With_nowt_taken_out said:After a few days split between a northern Lab/Con marginal and a southern Con/ Lib marginal, for me it feels we have 4 key 'pots' of voters that will determine the outcome.
1. About 25% of the UKIP voters are toying with voting Conservative- SNP, economy, EdM are making them think hard
2. Labour voters who didn't vote last time and who may or may not vote this time
3. Labour voters who don't like Edm -They may stay at home, vote green or even a few vote tory
4 Labour voters who have lent their votes to the lib dem over the last few years. A number of these are unsure who they vote for this time
The first 3 will determine the outcome and the 4th will decide a number of Con/ Lib marginal- I guess in 54hrs we will know the answer to the puzzle.0 -
2% could very well see the Tories finish ahead on seats, but not by enough to form a government, in my view.malcolmg said:
Folls and their money are easy partedMonikerDiCanio said:
Not if the spouse wins.Itwasrigged said:
If he is married then he is getting the frying pan on his crown when the wife squeals and hisses " How much?"MonikerDiCanio said:
And Aberdonians are very careful with their money..Scott_P said:@LadPolitics: Could Alex Salmond be in trouble? One Aberdonian has just had £3,000 on the Lib Dems to win Gordon at 5/1. Latest odds
1/6 #snp
7/2 #libdems
Eck's rejection would be a moment of exquisite bliss.
Sturgeon has shown what a drag Salmond was on the SNP, he may well fail in Gordon amidst an SNP landslide. Heartbreaking.0 -
I've got that slogan on the pro-voting cards I've been delivering. See it at twitter.com/hungnews Can't say it's been having much effect.Plato said:Facebook launches 'I'm a voter' button: Tool will let users tell friends they have voted in the UK General Election
Button will appear on May 7 to UK Facebook users of voting age
'I'm a voter' tool is designed to encourage people to vote in the election
Study claims button was responsible for 300,000 votes in the US in 2010
Facebook also revealed that the Economy is the most mentioned election issue, followed by Europe and Immigration and Health
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-3068830/Facebook-launches-m-voter-button-Tool-let-users-tell-friends-voted-UK-General-Election.html#ixzz3ZHIjpvtP
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook0 -
Dear Dear , I would have expected better from you SO , you are with the gutter snipes nowadays.SouthamObserver said:0 -
Someone has to govern, and for that you need support in the House of Commons. If the largest party doesn't have that what can be done?Millsy said:The most interesting thing from Lord Ashcroft's focus group was about the possibility of Labour coming second and wanting to govern:
One possible outcome is that Labour could form a government with the help of other parties, even if it comes second to the Conservatives in terms of both votes and seats. Most did not realise such an outcome was even possible, and many – including many who planned to vote Labour – were indignant at the idea: “They would have cheated their way in”; “It would be underhand. Not what the public wanted, not what the public said”; “It’s dealmongering, moving away from democracy”; “If that happened, at the next election, I’d think, what’s the point of voting?” Not everyone was exercised about it – but so many felt so strongly that it suggested such a government would have a job persuading the public of its political legitimacy, however constitutionally permissible it might be.
Disaster if Miliband tries it
Would it also be 'disaster' if Cameron is in that position and 'tries it' ?0 -
The betfair markets seem completely uninterested in Lord Ashcroft's pronouncements today.0
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Haven't we been told to avoid looking at sub-samples?0
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Funny thing is, the Cons and Lab are both on 34 BEFORE the adjustment!murali_s said:
Without that, would Labour be ahead?Sunil_Prasannan said:Just looked at the Populus poll, they've done another spiral of silence thing, like they did on Friday. But they are an ONLINE poll!
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Mr. Flag, maybe.
There's little political freedom and the one child policy is going to mean a relative labour shortage, raising wages, and then creating a situation akin to our baby boomer pension problem [but writ large].0 -
That is desperate even for you Scott, that guy is not the full shillingScott_P said:@dhothersall: SNP forced to suspend another SNP member who definitely wasn't an SNP member & everyone knows is a unionist MI5 plant working for JK Rowling
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I thought that was me!Plato said:That is such an ancient point - I posted on here feeling compelled to join the Tories in June of 2013 to make sure EdM wasn't PM at my hand.
Do keep up!
BTW - are you still single? IIRC you had quite an aversion to the institution of marriage full stop.SandyRentool said:
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http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/ANP-150505LWK-Full-data-tables.pdf
Some funny results - for instance more people over 55 would vote Labour than Conservative and Labour match the Tories for the over 65.
Tories well ahead in the midlands (think marginals) !0 -
It's hardly an achilles heal but its being blown out of proportion by a compliant media and now the SNP are both justifying the Faux Outrage from Murphy. On top of that they have propelled Murphy's bullshit back into the headlines.TGOHF said:
Looks like Murphy has found the SNP's Achilles heel ..Dair said:Stupid, stupid SNP.
They've put yesterdays pseudo-False Flag back in the news.
Scott and Doughty Brown have done NOTHING wrong other than be associated with Clerkin (which is stupid). If they were going to act they should have warned them earlier or expelled them earlier or done nothing till after the election.
What the SNP are doing is EXACTLY the same as Lucy Powell's ridiculous twitter ranging earlier today. Only it's worse because its not an individual it's the party as a whole acting like a headless chicken.0 -
As has been said here many times, it is very difficult to compare one company's poll with another. The different types of methodology will produce slightly different results even with exactly the same data. You can only really compare with previous versions of the same poll. There is no doubt that one methodology with have a bias one way another a different way, no way of knowing which will be nearer to the final result. Populus does seemed to have favoured Labour while Ashcroft the Tories, we shall find out who is more accurate on Friday morning, though if the actual result is 33:32 (in either direction) they will both be just about right.
Perhaps a bigger distinction is between those polls showing a Tory / Labour share of 68% - 70% and (eg Populus and Yougov) and those in the low 60s (eg Ashcroft)
For what its worth it does seem that all the polls are pointing towards a close result in terms of share of the vote which in terms of seats is likely (but not certain) to be advantage Labour, though there are a number of rumours doing the rounds that Brewers Green is nervous (though at this stage expectation management and spin are big factors.......).
Looking at sub samples for individual polls has very little or no validity as the sample sizes are likely to be far too small to be useful.0 -
Honestly though, if you aren't that politically inclined and it's a choice between polling station and pub...? Especially if you know your vote won't actually matter?The_Apocalypse said:The Greens won't get 7% in an election. I think Labour may benefit somewhat, by about 1-2% but not more. The majority of the Green vote simply won't turn up, which is sad because I wish more people in my age group would go out and vote.
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I would be happy to tell him to man up and stop being such a big pansy.TGOHF said:
If I were Jim, I'd campaign outside malcy towers - see if you were man enough to come out and froth on tv.malcolmg said:
LOL, you boys are a hoot , two idiots suspended for shouting. These southern jessies , aka Murphy , are not real politicians.TGOHF said:
Deja vu - just like the Cons haven't targeted Farage, Lab now see that Saint Nicola is beyond reproach - so go after the activists and the fringites - toxify the party one by one until the mud sticks.Scott_P said:@steve_hawkes: SNP has now suspended two people caught up in yesterday's scuffle with Jim Murphy... Sturgeon holds to line that nothing to do with them
Of course to work, the nutters have to be there - and just like Ukip they are ..0 -
I've had e-mails from Hague, Sajid Javid, Cameron both halves, Boris, Osborne...still Sam Cam is the only one I'd do a favour.Plato said:I can't fault the Tories GOTV email/Twitter efforts - I've been sent something almost every day with a message, thanks, request/gratitude for help/donation.
NoEasyDay said:I've just had an e-mail from Samantha Cameron, thanking me for everything I've done. Wasn't aware I'd done anything.
Why are they getting their spouses involved ? Does it really help.0 -
Thuggery, lies and a penchant for anti-democratic behaviour. Whoever would have thought it from a nationalist party?
National socialists. The National Socialist Scottish Workers Party in full. Und die Fuhrerin heist Nicola.
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Yes - the MOE (on a 25% of the total) is 6% or so. In Scotland (a 12th of the total) it would be 10%.murali_s said:Haven't we been told to avoid looking at sub-samples?
Quote from LA focus group
“What happens if no-one can form a coalition? Does it go to penalties?”0 -
@The_Apocalypse
'I think Survation is due tomorrow. I think the only other poll we'll see tonight is YouGov.'
I've just completed an ipsos mori for tomorrow?0 -
I'm afraid that you have opened Pandora's box - the loons were encouraged and can't be turned off like a tap.Dair said:
It's hardly an achilles heal but its being blown out of proportion by a compliant media and now the SNP are both justifying the Faux Outrage from Murphy. On top of that they have propelled Murphy's bullshit back into the headlines.TGOHF said:
Looks like Murphy has found the SNP's Achilles heel ..Dair said:Stupid, stupid SNP.
They've put yesterdays pseudo-False Flag back in the news.
Scott and Doughty Brown have done NOTHING wrong other than be associated with Clerkin (which is stupid). If they were going to act they should have warned them earlier or expelled them earlier or done nothing till after the election.
What the SNP are doing is EXACTLY the same as Lucy Powell's ridiculous twitter ranging earlier today. Only it's worse because its not an individual it's the party as a whole acting like a headless chicken.
Titters.0 -
The Labour Party are a Nationalist party.SouthamObserver said:
The Tories are a Nationalist party.
The Lib Dems are a Nationalist party.
Which of the three's thugs are you referring to?
Maybe the Labour PPC for St Helens South waiting for her trial for an alleged assault at a Poling Place?0 -
Arrange a meeting.malcolmg said:
I would be happy to tell him to man up and stop being such a big pansy.TGOHF said:
If I were Jim, I'd campaign outside malcy towers - see if you were man enough to come out and froth on tv.malcolmg said:
LOL, you boys are a hoot , two idiots suspended for shouting. These southern jessies , aka Murphy , are not real politicians.TGOHF said:
Deja vu - just like the Cons haven't targeted Farage, Lab now see that Saint Nicola is beyond reproach - so go after the activists and the fringites - toxify the party one by one until the mud sticks.Scott_P said:@steve_hawkes: SNP has now suspended two people caught up in yesterday's scuffle with Jim Murphy... Sturgeon holds to line that nothing to do with them
Of course to work, the nutters have to be there - and just like Ukip they are ..
jimmurphymp@parliament.uk, 0141 620 63100 -
Peter_the_Punter said:
So you could say 'Tories dropping like a stone....'OllyT said:So the first phone poll of the week sees the Tory lead drop 4% in a week, and as we know, phone polls are the gold standard.
OK, where's my coat.
I was criticising the fact that we do not know who conducts the Ashcroft polls last week but I was of course shouted down by the PB Tories when it was showing a 6% Tory lead! Last week's Ashcroft was almost certainly an outlier, unless of course you do think that the last week has been that bad for the Tories.Ishmael_X said:
You can't compute a drop like that with Ashcroft because there is no way of knowing whether the same polling company did both polls.OllyT said:So the first phone poll of the week sees the Tory lead drop 4% in a week, and as we know, phone polls are the gold standard.
0 -
I've followed HungNews - is that you?Dadge said:
I've got that slogan on the pro-voting cards I've been delivering. See it at twitter.com/hungnews Can't say it's been having much effect.Plato said:Facebook launches 'I'm a voter' button: Tool will let users tell friends they have voted in the UK General Election
Button will appear on May 7 to UK Facebook users of voting age
'I'm a voter' tool is designed to encourage people to vote in the election
Study claims button was responsible for 300,000 votes in the US in 2010
Facebook also revealed that the Economy is the most mentioned election issue, followed by Europe and Immigration and Health
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-3068830/Facebook-launches-m-voter-button-Tool-let-users-tell-friends-voted-UK-General-Election.html#ixzz3ZHIjpvtP
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook0 -
Reworking the poll by excluding Scotland to leave England and Wales is reasonable. England and Wales is 92% of the electorate.murali_s said:Haven't we been told to avoid looking at sub-samples?
You can still have anomalies. In this poll, 2% say they'll vote Conservative in Scotland!0 -
Betfair has basically given up on most of the polling. Though I expect ICM to move the market [if appropriate given the result].antifrank said:The betfair markets seem completely uninterested in Lord Ashcroft's pronouncements today.
0 -
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In other news...
@Spectator_CH: Why has Rachel Reeves tried to blame the OBR for Ed Miliband’s job predictions? http://t.co/Q8OpTY6cxD by @frasernelson0 -
It's hugely difficult to turn round a birthrate that's plummeted.SeanT said:
They've just about ended the one child policy. The last rules will be gone in a few years.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Flag, maybe.
There's little political freedom and the one child policy is going to mean a relative labour shortage, raising wages, and then creating a situation akin to our baby boomer pension problem [but writ large].
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/china/10451767/China-to-ease-one-child-policy.html
China still faces demog problems, but I don't think they will seriously hurt the economy for another 20-40 years. And there's always the chance they will start manufacturing babies. Literally.
http://www.nature.com/news/chinese-scientists-genetically-modify-human-embryos-1.173780 -
Sean_F said:
It's hugely difficult to turn round a birthrate that's plummeted.SeanT said:
They've just about ended the one child policy. The last rules will be gone in a few years.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Flag, maybe.
There's little political freedom and the one child policy is going to mean a relative labour shortage, raising wages, and then creating a situation akin to our baby boomer pension problem [but writ large].
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/china/10451767/China-to-ease-one-child-policy.html
China still faces demog problems, but I don't think they will seriously hurt the economy for another 20-40 years. And there's always the chance they will start manufacturing babies. Literally.
http://www.nature.com/news/chinese-scientists-genetically-modify-human-embryos-1.173780 -
Loons don't need encouragement. It's nothing less than selection bias from the compliant MSM.TGOHF said:
I'm afraid that you have opened Pandora's box - the loons were encouraged and can't be turned off like a tap.Dair said:
It's hardly an achilles heal but its being blown out of proportion by a compliant media and now the SNP are both justifying the Faux Outrage from Murphy. On top of that they have propelled Murphy's bullshit back into the headlines.TGOHF said:
Looks like Murphy has found the SNP's Achilles heel ..Dair said:Stupid, stupid SNP.
They've put yesterdays pseudo-False Flag back in the news.
Scott and Doughty Brown have done NOTHING wrong other than be associated with Clerkin (which is stupid). If they were going to act they should have warned them earlier or expelled them earlier or done nothing till after the election.
What the SNP are doing is EXACTLY the same as Lucy Powell's ridiculous twitter ranging earlier today. Only it's worse because its not an individual it's the party as a whole acting like a headless chicken.
Titters.0 -
Nor are most SNP supporters by the look of it .malcolmg said:
That is desperate even for you Scott, that guy is not the full shillingScott_P said:@dhothersall: SNP forced to suspend another SNP member who definitely wasn't an SNP member & everyone knows is a unionist MI5 plant working for JK Rowling
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@hugorifkind: This is what nationalism looks like. You know I'm right. See it, and call it out. http://t.co/U8g0SgjkBaTGOHF said:I'm afraid that you have opened Pandora's box - the loons were encouraged and can't be turned off like a tap.
Titters.0 -
Pretty much every developed country except Israel and Russia has a demographic problem. Longer term working through it rather than encouraging mass third world immigration is a preferable solution. Not sure an ever expanding world population is sustainable anyway.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Flag, maybe.
There's little political freedom and the one child policy is going to mean a relative labour shortage, raising wages, and then creating a situation akin to our baby boomer pension problem [but writ large].0 -
Me too - she's a lovely smile.NoEasyDay said:
I've had e-mails from Hague, Sajid Javid, Cameron both halves, Boris, Osborne...still Sam Cam is the only one I'd do a favour.Plato said:I can't fault the Tories GOTV email/Twitter efforts - I've been sent something almost every day with a message, thanks, request/gratitude for help/donation.
NoEasyDay said:I've just had an e-mail from Samantha Cameron, thanking me for everything I've done. Wasn't aware I'd done anything.
Why are they getting their spouses involved ? Does it really help.0 -
Over the campaign as a whole, Ashcroft has put the Tories 2.8% ahead on average, so this one isn't very different in terms of lead, although it is, in terms of combined vote share.OllyT said:Peter_the_Punter said:
So you could say 'Tories dropping like a stone....'OllyT said:So the first phone poll of the week sees the Tory lead drop 4% in a week, and as we know, phone polls are the gold standard.
OK, where's my coat.
I was criticising the fact that we do not know who conducts the Ashcroft polls last week but I was of course shouted down by the PB Tories when it was showing a 6% Tory lead! Last week's Ashcroft was almost certainly an outlier, unless of course you do think that the last week has been that bad for the Tories.Ishmael_X said:
You can't compute a drop like that with Ashcroft because there is no way of knowing whether the same polling company did both polls.OllyT said:So the first phone poll of the week sees the Tory lead drop 4% in a week, and as we know, phone polls are the gold standard.
0 -
Of course after opening that box, all that was left was Hope.TGOHF said:
I'm afraid that you have opened Pandora's box - the loons were encouraged and can't be turned off like a tap.Dair said:
It's hardly an achilles heal but its being blown out of proportion by a compliant media and now the SNP are both justifying the Faux Outrage from Murphy. On top of that they have propelled Murphy's bullshit back into the headlines.TGOHF said:
Looks like Murphy has found the SNP's Achilles heel ..Dair said:Stupid, stupid SNP.
They've put yesterdays pseudo-False Flag back in the news.
Scott and Doughty Brown have done NOTHING wrong other than be associated with Clerkin (which is stupid). If they were going to act they should have warned them earlier or expelled them earlier or done nothing till after the election.
What the SNP are doing is EXACTLY the same as Lucy Powell's ridiculous twitter ranging earlier today. Only it's worse because its not an individual it's the party as a whole acting like a headless chicken.
Titters.0 -
It is beginning to happen already:SeanT said:
They've just about ended the one child policy. The last rules will be gone in a few years.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Flag, maybe.
There's little political freedom and the one child policy is going to mean a relative labour shortage, raising wages, and then creating a situation akin to our baby boomer pension problem [but writ large].
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/china/10451767/China-to-ease-one-child-policy.html
China still faces demog problems, but I don't think they will seriously hurt the economy for another 20-40 years. And there's always the chance they will start manufacturing babies. Literally.
http://www.nature.com/news/chinese-scientists-genetically-modify-human-embryos-1.17378
The end of surplus rural labour — a significant milestone that economists call the Lewis Turning Point — carries profound implications for China’s economy. As the flow of low-paid migrants into Chinese factories slows, workers demand higher pay, a phenomenon that has been evident for several years. This either drives low-end manufacturers out of business or forces them to raise prices, actions that could slow the export growth that has helped drive the country’s economy for decades.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/767495a0-e99b-11e4-b863-00144feab7de.html#axzz3ZHPYTLt1
0 -
Embarrassingly for you, I just checked. The entire exchange looks like this:OllyT said:Peter_the_Punter said:
So you could say 'Tories dropping like a stone....'OllyT said:So the first phone poll of the week sees the Tory lead drop 4% in a week, and as we know, phone polls are the gold standard.
OK, where's my coat.
I was criticising the fact that we do not know who conducts the Ashcroft polls last week but I was of course shouted down by the PB Tories when it was showing a 6% Tory lead! Last week's Ashcroft was almost certainly an outlier, unless of course you do think that the last week has been that bad for the Tories.Ishmael_X said:
You can't compute a drop like that with Ashcroft because there is no way of knowing whether the same polling company did both polls.OllyT said:So the first phone poll of the week sees the Tory lead drop 4% in a week, and as we know, phone polls are the gold standard.
You: Apologies if this has been covered somewhere but do we know who has carried the poll when Lord A publishes one?
RobD: I don't think so, he keeps that info private.
That is "being shouted down by the PBTories, is it? I hope RobD is thoroughly ashamed of himself.0 -
Will the SNP thugs cost them votes?Price of hubris.0
-
Russia has.Sean_F said:
It's hugely difficult to turn round a birthrate that's plummeted.SeanT said:
They've just about ended the one child policy. The last rules will be gone in a few years.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Flag, maybe.
There's little political freedom and the one child policy is going to mean a relative labour shortage, raising wages, and then creating a situation akin to our baby boomer pension problem [but writ large].
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/china/10451767/China-to-ease-one-child-policy.html
China still faces demog problems, but I don't think they will seriously hurt the economy for another 20-40 years. And there's always the chance they will start manufacturing babies. Literally.
http://www.nature.com/news/chinese-scientists-genetically-modify-human-embryos-1.173780 -
You do talk complete rubbish at times. This is another example of it. I thought your very peculiar definition of *libertarianism* was a low point. I was wrong.Dair said:
The Labour Party are a Nationalist party.SouthamObserver said:
The Tories are a Nationalist party.
The Lib Dems are a Nationalist party.
Which of the three's thugs are you referring to?
Maybe the Labour PPC for St Helens South waiting for her trial for an alleged assault at a Poling Place?0 -
FalseFlag said:
Pretty much every developed country except Israel and Russia has a demographic problem. Longer term working through it rather than encouraging mass third world immigration is a preferable solution. Not sure an ever expanding world population is sustainable anyway.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Flag, maybe.
There's little political freedom and the one child policy is going to mean a relative labour shortage, raising wages, and then creating a situation akin to our baby boomer pension problem [but writ large].
" Except Israel and Russia ", seriously ?FalseFlag said:
Pretty much every developed country except Israel and Russia has a demographic problem. Longer term working through it rather than encouraging mass third world immigration is a preferable solution. Not sure an ever expanding world population is sustainable anyway.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Flag, maybe.
There's little political freedom and the one child policy is going to mean a relative labour shortage, raising wages, and then creating a situation akin to our baby boomer pension problem [but writ large].0 -
The chances for the Tories continue to hang every more desperately. Even their previously positive polls are at the 'They need to be off by 3-4' stage. Ed Miliband will be our next PM, it's just a question of how obvious it is, and therefore if Cameron stands down immediately or has to wait a week or two.
Just like the polls to ruin some good old fashioned fun poking fun at an overpromoted flunkey.0 -
Hong Kong never had a one child policy but it is rare for a couple to have two or more. Material consumption comes first now-a-days.Sean_F said:
It's hugely difficult to turn round a birthrate that's plummeted.SeanT said:
They've just about ended the one child policy. The last rules will be gone in a few years.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Flag, maybe.
There's little political freedom and the one child policy is going to mean a relative labour shortage, raising wages, and then creating a situation akin to our baby boomer pension problem [but writ large].
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/china/10451767/China-to-ease-one-child-policy.html
China still faces demog problems, but I don't think they will seriously hurt the economy for another 20-40 years. And there's always the chance they will start manufacturing babies. Literally.
http://www.nature.com/news/chinese-scientists-genetically-modify-human-embryos-1.173780 -
Not being a marginal constuency there's SFA here.NoEasyDay said:
I've had e-mails from Hague, Sajid Javid, Cameron both halves, Boris, Osborne...still Sam Cam is the only one I'd do a favour.Plato said:I can't fault the Tories GOTV email/Twitter efforts - I've been sent something almost every day with a message, thanks, request/gratitude for help/donation.
NoEasyDay said:I've just had an e-mail from Samantha Cameron, thanking me for everything I've done. Wasn't aware I'd done anything.
Why are they getting their spouses involved ? Does it really help.0 -
The SNP has certainly made subsampling in the rest of the UK quite a bit easier!Sean_F said:
Reworking the poll by excluding Scotland to leave England and Wales is reasonable. England and Wales is 92% of the electorate.murali_s said:Haven't we been told to avoid looking at sub-samples?
You can still have anomalies. In this poll, 2% say they'll vote Conservative in Scotland!0 -
We won't know which were the outliers until the votes are counted.OllyT said:Peter_the_Punter said:
So you could say 'Tories dropping like a stone....'OllyT said:So the first phone poll of the week sees the Tory lead drop 4% in a week, and as we know, phone polls are the gold standard.
OK, where's my coat.
I was criticising the fact that we do not know who conducts the Ashcroft polls last week but I was of course shouted down by the PB Tories when it was showing a 6% Tory lead! Last week's Ashcroft was almost certainly an outlier, unless of course you do think that the last week has been that bad for the Tories.Ishmael_X said:
You can't compute a drop like that with Ashcroft because there is no way of knowing whether the same polling company did both polls.OllyT said:So the first phone poll of the week sees the Tory lead drop 4% in a week, and as we know, phone polls are the gold standard.
Personally I'm a little bit warier of LA than others because it is less transparent. It tends to produce pro-Tory results. That in itself is not a problem - ICM does does likewise - but if his Lordship is using ICM wholly or predominantly there would be a certain double-counting.
As a punter I just tend to stand back and look at the bigger picture produced by all the pollsters. Unequivocally they are suggesting a tie, as near as dammit, and in the popular vote that looks pretty much what we will get.
The Conservatives may have a slight edge in GOTV but Labour a similar one in the marginals.
I expect 'Most Seats' to be close - very close.0 -
China is explicitly trying to raise real wages, develop the consumer/service sector and subsequently move up the value chain, sweat shops will have to move elsewhere. This is something to be welcomed not avoided.SouthamObserver said:
It is beginning to happen already:SeanT said:
They've just about ended the one child policy. The last rules will be gone in a few years.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Flag, maybe.
There's little political freedom and the one child policy is going to mean a relative labour shortage, raising wages, and then creating a situation akin to our baby boomer pension problem [but writ large].
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/china/10451767/China-to-ease-one-child-policy.html
China still faces demog problems, but I don't think they will seriously hurt the economy for another 20-40 years. And there's always the chance they will start manufacturing babies. Literally.
http://www.nature.com/news/chinese-scientists-genetically-modify-human-embryos-1.17378
The end of surplus rural labour — a significant milestone that economists call the Lewis Turning Point — carries profound implications for China’s economy. As the flow of low-paid migrants into Chinese factories slows, workers demand higher pay, a phenomenon that has been evident for several years. This either drives low-end manufacturers out of business or forces them to raise prices, actions that could slow the export growth that has helped drive the country’s economy for decades.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/767495a0-e99b-11e4-b863-00144feab7de.html#axzz3ZHPYTLt10 -
Technically they still are, way more popular than anyone else (barring the regionallyfocused SNP popularity), they just aren't popular enough.FrancisUrquhart said:
The main two parties are proper popular aren't they !!!!Tissue_Price said:Lord Ashcroft @LordAshcroft
Ashcroft National Poll, 1-3 May: CON 32%, LAB 30%, LDEM 11%, UKIP 12%, GRN 7%. Details (and focus group report) on @ConHome, 4pm.0 -
@ScottyNational: Suspensions: SNP suspends members involved in disrupting rallies.Like the Smith report burning councillors they could be suspended for weeks0
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Interesting how phone polls are converging towards the online polls.0
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@Financier
S East:
Cons: 44
LAB: 25
LD: 10;
UKIP:10;
Green: 11
Midlands:
Cons: 36
LAB: 27
LD: 7
UKIP: 16
Green: 7
North:
Cons: 24
LAB: 51
LD: 7
UKIP: 12
Green: 5
Wales & SW
Cons: 30
LAB: 21
LD: 17
UKIP: 16
Green: 9
PC:4
Wow !
I hope these numbers are correct.0
![[Deleted User]](https://wd.vanillicon.com/d2ea526b1b06ed109333f390c7ae956b_100.png)
