After a few days split between a northern Lab/Con marginal and a southern Con/ Lib marginal, for me it feels we have 4 key 'pots' of voters that will determine the outcome.
1. About 25% of the UKIP voters are toying with voting Conservative- SNP, economy, EdM are making them think hard 2. Labour voters who didn't vote last time and who may or may not vote this time 3. Labour voters who don't like Edm -They may stay at home, vote green or even a few vote tory 4 Labour voters who have lent their votes to the lib dem over the last few years. A number of these are unsure who they vote for this time
The first 3 will determine the outcome and the 4th will decide a number of Con/ Lib marginal- I guess in 54hrs we will know the answer to the puzzle.
Most seats on a knife edge Glad i am not on at 1/5
4.2% England only swing is not only EICIPM but with as little as 5 seats in Scotland Labour almost certainly party with highest seats. I would like to know how the odds have changed.
In SPIN after going on a 28 lead with big Tory money following Thursday's QT, SPIN has now back to 24. UKIP is also edging downwards.
Facebook launches 'I'm a voter' button: Tool will let users tell friends they have voted in the UK General Election
Button will appear on May 7 to UK Facebook users of voting age 'I'm a voter' tool is designed to encourage people to vote in the election Study claims button was responsible for 300,000 votes in the US in 2010 Facebook also revealed that the Economy is the most mentioned election issue, followed by Europe and Immigration and Health
I've just had an e-mail from Samantha Cameron, thanking me for everything I've done. Wasn't aware I'd done anything. Why are they getting their spouses involved ? Does it really help.
In hindsight, the October conferences were poor for the Tories. Ed bombing with his leader's speech made people believe he truly was crap, forgetting the deficit and immigration, and they got complacent about that.
They truly didn't expect him to bounce back from that. And he did and he has.
30%.
Whatever.
Labour will get enough votes to put Ed in as PM. Labour truly are the Teflon party and most working class British people seem to naturally gravitate towards them unless they are truly and demonstrably sh*te.
The Tories still have a terrible branding and image problem. Despite many tactical victories within this campaign by the Tories, and fighting on their preferred ground of the economy and the SNP, Labour still haven't been beaten down.
After a few days split between a northern Lab/Con marginal and a southern Con/ Lib marginal, for me it feels we have 4 key 'pots' of voters that will determine the outcome.
1. About 25% of the UKIP voters are toying with voting Conservative- SNP, economy, EdM are making them think hard 2. Labour voters who didn't vote last time and who may or may not vote this time 3. Labour voters who don't like Edm -They may stay at home, vote green or even a few vote tory 4 Labour voters who have lent their votes to the lib dem over the last few years. A number of these are unsure who they vote for this time
The first 3 will determine the outcome and the 4th will decide a number of Con/ Lib marginal- I guess in 54hrs we will know the answer to the puzzle.
@LadPolitics: Could Alex Salmond be in trouble? One Aberdonian has just had £3,000 on the Lib Dems to win Gordon at 5/1. Latest odds 1/6 #snp 7/2 #libdems
And Aberdonians are very careful with their money.. Eck's rejection would be a moment of exquisite bliss.
If he is married then he is getting the frying pan on his crown when the wife squeals and hisses " How much?"
Not if the spouse wins. Sturgeon has shown what a drag Salmond was on the SNP, he may well fail in Gordon amidst an SNP landslide. Heartbreaking.
3.5% swing in England and Wales from Conservative to Labour. If that were uniform, that would result in 41 Labour gains from the Conservatives (assuming that Thurrock goes to UKIP). Factoring in gains from the Lib Dems, and losses to UKIP, that would leave both parties in the 270s.
After a few days split between a northern Lab/Con marginal and a southern Con/ Lib marginal, for me it feels we have 4 key 'pots' of voters that will determine the outcome.
1. About 25% of the UKIP voters are toying with voting Conservative- SNP, economy, EdM are making them think hard 2. Labour voters who didn't vote last time and who may or may not vote this time 3. Labour voters who don't like Edm -They may stay at home, vote green or even a few vote tory 4 Labour voters who have lent their votes to the lib dem over the last few years. A number of these are unsure who they vote for this time
The first 3 will determine the outcome and the 4th will decide a number of Con/ Lib marginal- I guess in 54hrs we will know the answer to the puzzle.
I make my own. I make soaked bread - I let the flour sit with the water with some lemon juice or cider vinegar overnight before adding the other ingredients and baking as normal.
Only because Ashcroft has spent an enormous sum of money on his polling and if it turns out not to be all that accurate we might never see the like again.
1 Question - name the candidates. That is all.
You can do it unnamed before they're known but after - simply name them.
Jeesus do you really think people know the candidates. Naming them would just confuse the f*ck out of people. I would guess 99% of people don't even know the name of their MP or their constituency.
If it makes no difference in 97% of cases, it makes no difference. But the 3% may well count.
I haven't done statistics for a long while BUT what do you think the odds of getting a fair representation of those 3% is in a single poll.
Sorry but the Sheffield Hallam result was clearly statistically different when you name the candidates. A single question naming the candidates with no prior questions, simply is the best approach.
And only ICM has done it in Hallam. If any pollsters are listening it clearly is the best method.
You vote for "Candidate ABC of XYZ Constituency" at the polling booth, not an individual candidate or an individual party.
Thats a poor example even the cats in Sheffield Hallam know Nick Clegg.
And when he isn't named, he is BEHIND.
Everyone and their dog SHOULD know Clegg is the Lib Dem PPC for Hallam. Those answering the poll all probably do so. But when he is named, some will switch their answer to him. My guess is it'd be the same at the ballot box. When he isn't named they'll answer Conservative, even though they know "Nick Clegg" is standing.
I agree - It really, really shouldn't be the case. But it is. @JackW is quite right on this matter.
I don't dispute Sheffield Hallam, I am saying its a bad example Cleggs fizhog is on the box every night of course every man and his dog knows him. But that doesn't mean it would be the same anywhere else. Most other places would have anonymous short fat bald candidates no-ones ever heard of.
3.5% swing in England and Wales from Conservative to Labour. If that were uniform, that would result in 43 Labour gains from the Conservatives. Factoring in gains from the Lib Dems, and losses to UKIP, that would leave both parties in the 270s.
It's all down to the GOTV operation on Thursday I think. Lab/Con figures seem too low to me.
@LadPolitics: Could Alex Salmond be in trouble? One Aberdonian has just had £3,000 on the Lib Dems to win Gordon at 5/1. Latest odds 1/6 #snp 7/2 #libdems
And Aberdonians are very careful with their money.. Eck's rejection would be a moment of exquisite bliss.
If he is married then he is getting the frying pan on his crown when the wife squeals and hisses " How much?"
Not if the spouse wins. Sturgeon has shown what a drag Salmond was on the SNP, he may well fail in Gordon amidst an SNP landslide. Heartbreaking.
Terrible poll in all honesty. Those still backing Tories most seats at 1/5 are a lot braver than me. I think we can probably get over the line but if the polls are right it's looking very very close.
Fallout Friday could see carnage similar to the collapse of Lehman Bros if there is any suggestion Miliband and the SNP are taking over.
Tour de force analysis at Open Democracy. Make a cuppa - it's a meaty 10 minute read. His conclusion's in the URL but never mind that - he has many chunky points of significant (imo) detail on, e.g., McVey et al implications. Much of it is familiar ground for PB-ers but there's something juicy for everyone (except Ed.) Inter alia: 'Labour PLP do not want office right now even if Ed does.' (Wild paraphrase by me.)
Thanks for the link - an interesting, thoughtful analysis. I've had some interesting convos with non-politicos recently, e.g. at a wedding this weekend just gone, and there was a lot of resignation and lethargy about voting - all "well I suppose I'l have to vote for [x]", nobody energised at all (not even a couple of Green voters who knew their votes were entirely protest).
I'm starting to be persuaded that this devil-you-know lethargy will result in a another Con-LD coalition, albeit ybewith slightly less LD empowerment (maybe oversight over one or two policy areas - education? - with no return to the 'Quad' power-broking arrangement) and a C&S deal with the DUP. I don't think there will be popular acceptance of a government that doesn't involve the party with the most seats, even if it's just by a small margin of five or ten.
There's also the important factor of simultaneous local elections providing an outlet for protest voting vs the pragmatic/tactical vote for the MP.
Scotland, of course, is another matter entirely and the SNP phenomenon will be digested for years to come. I'm still not entirely sure what a bloc of 50 nats would actually do in Westminster, given that most of their constituency work is carried out at SNP level, nobody will share power with them and they won't vote on things that don't affect Scotland.
@dhothersall: SNP forced to suspend another SNP member who definitely wasn't an SNP member & everyone knows is a unionist MI5 plant working for JK Rowling
@steve_hawkes: SNP has now suspended two people caught up in yesterday's scuffle with Jim Murphy... Sturgeon holds to line that nothing to do with them
Deja vu - just like the Cons haven't targeted Farage, Lab now see that Saint Nicola is beyond reproach - so go after the activists and the fringites - toxify the party one by one until the mud sticks.
Of course to work, the nutters have to be there - and just like Ukip they are ..
LOL, you boys are a hoot , two idiots suspended for shouting. These southern jessies , aka Murphy , are not real politicians.
I can't fault the Tories GOTV email/Twitter efforts - I've been sent something almost every day with a message, thanks, request/gratitude for help/donation.
I've just had an e-mail from Samantha Cameron, thanking me for everything I've done. Wasn't aware I'd done anything. Why are they getting their spouses involved ? Does it really help.
Terrible poll in all honesty. Those still backing Tories most seats at 1/5 are a lot braver than me. I think we can probably get over the line but if the polls are right it's looking very very close.
Fallout Friday could see carnage similar to the collapse of Lehman Bros if there is any suggestion Miliband and the SNP are taking over.
That's two SNP members suspended after SLab's haranguing of Murphy and Izzard yesterday. I blame MI5.
Seems second person was at a protest against Brown today and not involved yesterday. Some press getting confused so I guess that's why you're making the mistake.
No, he was there yesterday too. He was in the photo I posted and you said was "desperate stuff". But I do accept you truly believe otherwise.
@steve_hawkes: SNP has now suspended two people caught up in yesterday's scuffle with Jim Murphy... Sturgeon holds to line that nothing to do with them
Deja vu - just like the Cons haven't targeted Farage, Lab now see that Saint Nicola is beyond reproach - so go after the activists and the fringites - toxify the party one by one until the mud sticks.
Of course to work, the nutters have to be there - and just like Ukip they are ..
LOL, you boys are a hoot , two idiots suspended for shouting. These southern jessies , aka Murphy , are not real politicians.
If I were Jim, I'd campaign outside malcy towers - see if you were man enough to come out and froth on tv.
After a few days split between a northern Lab/Con marginal and a southern Con/ Lib marginal, for me it feels we have 4 key 'pots' of voters that will determine the outcome.
1. About 25% of the UKIP voters are toying with voting Conservative- SNP, economy, EdM are making them think hard 2. Labour voters who didn't vote last time and who may or may not vote this time 3. Labour voters who don't like Edm -They may stay at home, vote green or even a few vote tory 4 Labour voters who have lent their votes to the lib dem over the last few years. A number of these are unsure who they vote for this time
The first 3 will determine the outcome and the 4th will decide a number of Con/ Lib marginal- I guess in 54hrs we will know the answer to the puzzle.
@LadPolitics: Could Alex Salmond be in trouble? One Aberdonian has just had £3,000 on the Lib Dems to win Gordon at 5/1. Latest odds 1/6 #snp 7/2 #libdems
And Aberdonians are very careful with their money.. Eck's rejection would be a moment of exquisite bliss.
If he is married then he is getting the frying pan on his crown when the wife squeals and hisses " How much?"
Not if the spouse wins. Sturgeon has shown what a drag Salmond was on the SNP, he may well fail in Gordon amidst an SNP landslide. Heartbreaking.
Folls and their money are easy parted
2% could very well see the Tories finish ahead on seats, but not by enough to form a government, in my view.
Facebook launches 'I'm a voter' button: Tool will let users tell friends they have voted in the UK General Election
Button will appear on May 7 to UK Facebook users of voting age 'I'm a voter' tool is designed to encourage people to vote in the election Study claims button was responsible for 300,000 votes in the US in 2010 Facebook also revealed that the Economy is the most mentioned election issue, followed by Europe and Immigration and Health
The most interesting thing from Lord Ashcroft's focus group was about the possibility of Labour coming second and wanting to govern:
One possible outcome is that Labour could form a government with the help of other parties, even if it comes second to the Conservatives in terms of both votes and seats. Most did not realise such an outcome was even possible, and many – including many who planned to vote Labour – were indignant at the idea: “They would have cheated their way in”; “It would be underhand. Not what the public wanted, not what the public said”; “It’s dealmongering, moving away from democracy”; “If that happened, at the next election, I’d think, what’s the point of voting?” Not everyone was exercised about it – but so many felt so strongly that it suggested such a government would have a job persuading the public of its political legitimacy, however constitutionally permissible it might be.
Disaster if Miliband tries it
Someone has to govern, and for that you need support in the House of Commons. If the largest party doesn't have that what can be done? Would it also be 'disaster' if Cameron is in that position and 'tries it' ?
There's little political freedom and the one child policy is going to mean a relative labour shortage, raising wages, and then creating a situation akin to our baby boomer pension problem [but writ large].
@dhothersall: SNP forced to suspend another SNP member who definitely wasn't an SNP member & everyone knows is a unionist MI5 plant working for JK Rowling
That is desperate even for you Scott, that guy is not the full shilling
They've put yesterdays pseudo-False Flag back in the news.
Looks like Murphy has found the SNP's Achilles heel ..
It's hardly an achilles heal but its being blown out of proportion by a compliant media and now the SNP are both justifying the Faux Outrage from Murphy. On top of that they have propelled Murphy's bullshit back into the headlines.
Scott and Doughty Brown have done NOTHING wrong other than be associated with Clerkin (which is stupid). If they were going to act they should have warned them earlier or expelled them earlier or done nothing till after the election.
What the SNP are doing is EXACTLY the same as Lucy Powell's ridiculous twitter ranging earlier today. Only it's worse because its not an individual it's the party as a whole acting like a headless chicken.
As has been said here many times, it is very difficult to compare one company's poll with another. The different types of methodology will produce slightly different results even with exactly the same data. You can only really compare with previous versions of the same poll. There is no doubt that one methodology with have a bias one way another a different way, no way of knowing which will be nearer to the final result. Populus does seemed to have favoured Labour while Ashcroft the Tories, we shall find out who is more accurate on Friday morning, though if the actual result is 33:32 (in either direction) they will both be just about right.
Perhaps a bigger distinction is between those polls showing a Tory / Labour share of 68% - 70% and (eg Populus and Yougov) and those in the low 60s (eg Ashcroft)
For what its worth it does seem that all the polls are pointing towards a close result in terms of share of the vote which in terms of seats is likely (but not certain) to be advantage Labour, though there are a number of rumours doing the rounds that Brewers Green is nervous (though at this stage expectation management and spin are big factors.......).
Looking at sub samples for individual polls has very little or no validity as the sample sizes are likely to be far too small to be useful.
The Greens won't get 7% in an election. I think Labour may benefit somewhat, by about 1-2% but not more. The majority of the Green vote simply won't turn up, which is sad because I wish more people in my age group would go out and vote.
Honestly though, if you aren't that politically inclined and it's a choice between polling station and pub...? Especially if you know your vote won't actually matter?
@steve_hawkes: SNP has now suspended two people caught up in yesterday's scuffle with Jim Murphy... Sturgeon holds to line that nothing to do with them
Deja vu - just like the Cons haven't targeted Farage, Lab now see that Saint Nicola is beyond reproach - so go after the activists and the fringites - toxify the party one by one until the mud sticks.
Of course to work, the nutters have to be there - and just like Ukip they are ..
LOL, you boys are a hoot , two idiots suspended for shouting. These southern jessies , aka Murphy , are not real politicians.
If I were Jim, I'd campaign outside malcy towers - see if you were man enough to come out and froth on tv.
I would be happy to tell him to man up and stop being such a big pansy.
I can't fault the Tories GOTV email/Twitter efforts - I've been sent something almost every day with a message, thanks, request/gratitude for help/donation.
I've just had an e-mail from Samantha Cameron, thanking me for everything I've done. Wasn't aware I'd done anything. Why are they getting their spouses involved ? Does it really help.
I've had e-mails from Hague, Sajid Javid, Cameron both halves, Boris, Osborne...still Sam Cam is the only one I'd do a favour.
They've put yesterdays pseudo-False Flag back in the news.
Looks like Murphy has found the SNP's Achilles heel ..
It's hardly an achilles heal but its being blown out of proportion by a compliant media and now the SNP are both justifying the Faux Outrage from Murphy. On top of that they have propelled Murphy's bullshit back into the headlines.
Scott and Doughty Brown have done NOTHING wrong other than be associated with Clerkin (which is stupid). If they were going to act they should have warned them earlier or expelled them earlier or done nothing till after the election.
What the SNP are doing is EXACTLY the same as Lucy Powell's ridiculous twitter ranging earlier today. Only it's worse because its not an individual it's the party as a whole acting like a headless chicken.
I'm afraid that you have opened Pandora's box - the loons were encouraged and can't be turned off like a tap.
@steve_hawkes: SNP has now suspended two people caught up in yesterday's scuffle with Jim Murphy... Sturgeon holds to line that nothing to do with them
Deja vu - just like the Cons haven't targeted Farage, Lab now see that Saint Nicola is beyond reproach - so go after the activists and the fringites - toxify the party one by one until the mud sticks.
Of course to work, the nutters have to be there - and just like Ukip they are ..
LOL, you boys are a hoot , two idiots suspended for shouting. These southern jessies , aka Murphy , are not real politicians.
If I were Jim, I'd campaign outside malcy towers - see if you were man enough to come out and froth on tv.
I would be happy to tell him to man up and stop being such a big pansy.
So the first phone poll of the week sees the Tory lead drop 4% in a week, and as we know, phone polls are the gold standard.
You can't compute a drop like that with Ashcroft because there is no way of knowing whether the same polling company did both polls.
I was criticising the fact that we do not know who conducts the Ashcroft polls last week but I was of course shouted down by the PB Tories when it was showing a 6% Tory lead! Last week's Ashcroft was almost certainly an outlier, unless of course you do think that the last week has been that bad for the Tories.
Facebook launches 'I'm a voter' button: Tool will let users tell friends they have voted in the UK General Election
Button will appear on May 7 to UK Facebook users of voting age 'I'm a voter' tool is designed to encourage people to vote in the election Study claims button was responsible for 300,000 votes in the US in 2010 Facebook also revealed that the Economy is the most mentioned election issue, followed by Europe and Immigration and Health
There's little political freedom and the one child policy is going to mean a relative labour shortage, raising wages, and then creating a situation akin to our baby boomer pension problem [but writ large].
They've just about ended the one child policy. The last rules will be gone in a few years.
China still faces demog problems, but I don't think they will seriously hurt the economy for another 20-40 years. And there's always the chance they will start manufacturing babies. Literally.
There's little political freedom and the one child policy is going to mean a relative labour shortage, raising wages, and then creating a situation akin to our baby boomer pension problem [but writ large].
They've just about ended the one child policy. The last rules will be gone in a few years.
China still faces demog problems, but I don't think they will seriously hurt the economy for another 20-40 years. And there's always the chance they will start manufacturing babies. Literally.
They've put yesterdays pseudo-False Flag back in the news.
Looks like Murphy has found the SNP's Achilles heel ..
It's hardly an achilles heal but its being blown out of proportion by a compliant media and now the SNP are both justifying the Faux Outrage from Murphy. On top of that they have propelled Murphy's bullshit back into the headlines.
Scott and Doughty Brown have done NOTHING wrong other than be associated with Clerkin (which is stupid). If they were going to act they should have warned them earlier or expelled them earlier or done nothing till after the election.
What the SNP are doing is EXACTLY the same as Lucy Powell's ridiculous twitter ranging earlier today. Only it's worse because its not an individual it's the party as a whole acting like a headless chicken.
I'm afraid that you have opened Pandora's box - the loons were encouraged and can't be turned off like a tap.
Titters.
Loons don't need encouragement. It's nothing less than selection bias from the compliant MSM.
@dhothersall: SNP forced to suspend another SNP member who definitely wasn't an SNP member & everyone knows is a unionist MI5 plant working for JK Rowling
That is desperate even for you Scott, that guy is not the full shilling
There's little political freedom and the one child policy is going to mean a relative labour shortage, raising wages, and then creating a situation akin to our baby boomer pension problem [but writ large].
Pretty much every developed country except Israel and Russia has a demographic problem. Longer term working through it rather than encouraging mass third world immigration is a preferable solution. Not sure an ever expanding world population is sustainable anyway.
I can't fault the Tories GOTV email/Twitter efforts - I've been sent something almost every day with a message, thanks, request/gratitude for help/donation.
I've just had an e-mail from Samantha Cameron, thanking me for everything I've done. Wasn't aware I'd done anything. Why are they getting their spouses involved ? Does it really help.
I've had e-mails from Hague, Sajid Javid, Cameron both halves, Boris, Osborne...still Sam Cam is the only one I'd do a favour.
So the first phone poll of the week sees the Tory lead drop 4% in a week, and as we know, phone polls are the gold standard.
You can't compute a drop like that with Ashcroft because there is no way of knowing whether the same polling company did both polls.
I was criticising the fact that we do not know who conducts the Ashcroft polls last week but I was of course shouted down by the PB Tories when it was showing a 6% Tory lead! Last week's Ashcroft was almost certainly an outlier, unless of course you do think that the last week has been that bad for the Tories.
Over the campaign as a whole, Ashcroft has put the Tories 2.8% ahead on average, so this one isn't very different in terms of lead, although it is, in terms of combined vote share.
They've put yesterdays pseudo-False Flag back in the news.
Looks like Murphy has found the SNP's Achilles heel ..
It's hardly an achilles heal but its being blown out of proportion by a compliant media and now the SNP are both justifying the Faux Outrage from Murphy. On top of that they have propelled Murphy's bullshit back into the headlines.
Scott and Doughty Brown have done NOTHING wrong other than be associated with Clerkin (which is stupid). If they were going to act they should have warned them earlier or expelled them earlier or done nothing till after the election.
What the SNP are doing is EXACTLY the same as Lucy Powell's ridiculous twitter ranging earlier today. Only it's worse because its not an individual it's the party as a whole acting like a headless chicken.
I'm afraid that you have opened Pandora's box - the loons were encouraged and can't be turned off like a tap.
There's little political freedom and the one child policy is going to mean a relative labour shortage, raising wages, and then creating a situation akin to our baby boomer pension problem [but writ large].
They've just about ended the one child policy. The last rules will be gone in a few years.
China still faces demog problems, but I don't think they will seriously hurt the economy for another 20-40 years. And there's always the chance they will start manufacturing babies. Literally.
The end of surplus rural labour — a significant milestone that economists call the Lewis Turning Point — carries profound implications for China’s economy. As the flow of low-paid migrants into Chinese factories slows, workers demand higher pay, a phenomenon that has been evident for several years. This either drives low-end manufacturers out of business or forces them to raise prices, actions that could slow the export growth that has helped drive the country’s economy for decades.
So the first phone poll of the week sees the Tory lead drop 4% in a week, and as we know, phone polls are the gold standard.
You can't compute a drop like that with Ashcroft because there is no way of knowing whether the same polling company did both polls.
I was criticising the fact that we do not know who conducts the Ashcroft polls last week but I was of course shouted down by the PB Tories when it was showing a 6% Tory lead! Last week's Ashcroft was almost certainly an outlier, unless of course you do think that the last week has been that bad for the Tories.
Embarrassingly for you, I just checked. The entire exchange looks like this:
You: Apologies if this has been covered somewhere but do we know who has carried the poll when Lord A publishes one?
RobD: I don't think so, he keeps that info private.
That is "being shouted down by the PBTories, is it? I hope RobD is thoroughly ashamed of himself.
There's little political freedom and the one child policy is going to mean a relative labour shortage, raising wages, and then creating a situation akin to our baby boomer pension problem [but writ large].
They've just about ended the one child policy. The last rules will be gone in a few years.
China still faces demog problems, but I don't think they will seriously hurt the economy for another 20-40 years. And there's always the chance they will start manufacturing babies. Literally.
You do talk complete rubbish at times. This is another example of it. I thought your very peculiar definition of *libertarianism* was a low point. I was wrong.
There's little political freedom and the one child policy is going to mean a relative labour shortage, raising wages, and then creating a situation akin to our baby boomer pension problem [but writ large].
Pretty much every developed country except Israel and Russia has a demographic problem. Longer term working through it rather than encouraging mass third world immigration is a preferable solution. Not sure an ever expanding world population is sustainable anyway.
There's little political freedom and the one child policy is going to mean a relative labour shortage, raising wages, and then creating a situation akin to our baby boomer pension problem [but writ large].
Pretty much every developed country except Israel and Russia has a demographic problem. Longer term working through it rather than encouraging mass third world immigration is a preferable solution. Not sure an ever expanding world population is sustainable anyway.
The chances for the Tories continue to hang every more desperately. Even their previously positive polls are at the 'They need to be off by 3-4' stage. Ed Miliband will be our next PM, it's just a question of how obvious it is, and therefore if Cameron stands down immediately or has to wait a week or two.
Just like the polls to ruin some good old fashioned fun poking fun at an overpromoted flunkey.
There's little political freedom and the one child policy is going to mean a relative labour shortage, raising wages, and then creating a situation akin to our baby boomer pension problem [but writ large].
They've just about ended the one child policy. The last rules will be gone in a few years.
China still faces demog problems, but I don't think they will seriously hurt the economy for another 20-40 years. And there's always the chance they will start manufacturing babies. Literally.
I can't fault the Tories GOTV email/Twitter efforts - I've been sent something almost every day with a message, thanks, request/gratitude for help/donation.
I've just had an e-mail from Samantha Cameron, thanking me for everything I've done. Wasn't aware I'd done anything. Why are they getting their spouses involved ? Does it really help.
I've had e-mails from Hague, Sajid Javid, Cameron both halves, Boris, Osborne...still Sam Cam is the only one I'd do a favour.
So the first phone poll of the week sees the Tory lead drop 4% in a week, and as we know, phone polls are the gold standard.
You can't compute a drop like that with Ashcroft because there is no way of knowing whether the same polling company did both polls.
I was criticising the fact that we do not know who conducts the Ashcroft polls last week but I was of course shouted down by the PB Tories when it was showing a 6% Tory lead! Last week's Ashcroft was almost certainly an outlier, unless of course you do think that the last week has been that bad for the Tories.
We won't know which were the outliers until the votes are counted.
Personally I'm a little bit warier of LA than others because it is less transparent. It tends to produce pro-Tory results. That in itself is not a problem - ICM does does likewise - but if his Lordship is using ICM wholly or predominantly there would be a certain double-counting.
As a punter I just tend to stand back and look at the bigger picture produced by all the pollsters. Unequivocally they are suggesting a tie, as near as dammit, and in the popular vote that looks pretty much what we will get.
The Conservatives may have a slight edge in GOTV but Labour a similar one in the marginals.
There's little political freedom and the one child policy is going to mean a relative labour shortage, raising wages, and then creating a situation akin to our baby boomer pension problem [but writ large].
They've just about ended the one child policy. The last rules will be gone in a few years.
China still faces demog problems, but I don't think they will seriously hurt the economy for another 20-40 years. And there's always the chance they will start manufacturing babies. Literally.
The end of surplus rural labour — a significant milestone that economists call the Lewis Turning Point — carries profound implications for China’s economy. As the flow of low-paid migrants into Chinese factories slows, workers demand higher pay, a phenomenon that has been evident for several years. This either drives low-end manufacturers out of business or forces them to raise prices, actions that could slow the export growth that has helped drive the country’s economy for decades.
China is explicitly trying to raise real wages, develop the consumer/service sector and subsequently move up the value chain, sweat shops will have to move elsewhere. This is something to be welcomed not avoided.
@ScottyNational: Suspensions: SNP suspends members involved in disrupting rallies.Like the Smith report burning councillors they could be suspended for weeks
Comments
I do like the Stallone Warburton's one - a rare example of celeb endorsement working. Arnie and Meerkats is terrible.
In SPIN after going on a 28 lead with big Tory money following Thursday's QT, SPIN has now back to 24. UKIP is also edging downwards.
England: Con: 35; LAB 32; LD 10; UKIP 13; Gn 7;
Appear to be a huge number of Labour votes in the North - Labour piling them up where they are not so much needed?
2010 LDs seem to have recovered a lot of RedLDs
Scotland sub-sample is far too small:
SNP: 53;
LAB: 21
LD: 18
Green: 5
Cons: 2!
Are Cons supporting LDs against the SNP?
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Why are they getting their spouses involved ? Does it really help.
Con vote share Scotland will probably be ~ 15% on the day. Their normal 16.7 odd% and 1.7% heading off tactically mainly anti-SNP or so.
Labour will get enough votes to put Ed in as PM. Labour truly are the Teflon party and most working class British people seem to naturally gravitate towards them unless they are truly and demonstrably sh*te.
The Tories still have a terrible branding and image problem. Despite many tactical victories within this campaign by the Tories, and fighting on their preferred ground of the economy and the SNP, Labour still haven't been beaten down.
Sturgeon has shown what a drag Salmond was on the SNP, he may well fail in Gordon amidst an SNP landslide. Heartbreaking.
Most other places would have anonymous short fat bald candidates no-ones ever heard of.
Expect Labour to be taking to the streets more often - with the cameras.
Fallout Friday could see carnage similar to the collapse of Lehman Bros if there is any suggestion Miliband and the SNP are taking over.
Do keep up!
BTW - are you still single? IIRC you had quite an aversion to the institution of marriage full stop.
I'm starting to be persuaded that this devil-you-know lethargy will result in a another Con-LD coalition, albeit ybewith slightly less LD empowerment (maybe oversight over one or two policy areas - education? - with no return to the 'Quad' power-broking arrangement) and a C&S deal with the DUP. I don't think there will be popular acceptance of a government that doesn't involve the party with the most seats, even if it's just by a small margin of five or ten.
There's also the important factor of simultaneous local elections providing an outlet for protest voting vs the pragmatic/tactical vote for the MP.
Scotland, of course, is another matter entirely and the SNP phenomenon will be digested for years to come. I'm still not entirely sure what a bloc of 50 nats would actually do in Westminster, given that most of their constituency work is carried out at SNP level, nobody will share power with them and they won't vote on things that don't affect Scotland.
You really haven't grasped this polling thing, have you?
Cons: 44
LAB: 25
LD: 10;
UKIP:10;
Green: 11
Midlands:
Cons: 36
LAB: 27
LD: 7
UKIP: 16
Green: 7
North:
Cons: 24
LAB: 51
LD: 7
UKIP: 12
Green: 5
Wales & SW
Cons: 30
LAB: 21
LD: 17
UKIP: 16
Green: 9
PC:4
Would it also be 'disaster' if Cameron is in that position and 'tries it' ?
There's little political freedom and the one child policy is going to mean a relative labour shortage, raising wages, and then creating a situation akin to our baby boomer pension problem [but writ large].
Some funny results - for instance more people over 55 would vote Labour than Conservative and Labour match the Tories for the over 65.
Tories well ahead in the midlands (think marginals) !
Scott and Doughty Brown have done NOTHING wrong other than be associated with Clerkin (which is stupid). If they were going to act they should have warned them earlier or expelled them earlier or done nothing till after the election.
What the SNP are doing is EXACTLY the same as Lucy Powell's ridiculous twitter ranging earlier today. Only it's worse because its not an individual it's the party as a whole acting like a headless chicken.
Perhaps a bigger distinction is between those polls showing a Tory / Labour share of 68% - 70% and (eg Populus and Yougov) and those in the low 60s (eg Ashcroft)
For what its worth it does seem that all the polls are pointing towards a close result in terms of share of the vote which in terms of seats is likely (but not certain) to be advantage Labour, though there are a number of rumours doing the rounds that Brewers Green is nervous (though at this stage expectation management and spin are big factors.......).
Looking at sub samples for individual polls has very little or no validity as the sample sizes are likely to be far too small to be useful.
National socialists. The National Socialist Scottish Workers Party in full. Und die Fuhrerin heist Nicola.
Quote from LA focus group
“What happens if no-one can form a coalition? Does it go to penalties?”
'I think Survation is due tomorrow. I think the only other poll we'll see tonight is YouGov.'
I've just completed an ipsos mori for tomorrow?
Titters.
The Tories are a Nationalist party.
The Lib Dems are a Nationalist party.
Which of the three's thugs are you referring to?
Maybe the Labour PPC for St Helens South waiting for her trial for an alleged assault at a Poling Place?
jimmurphymp@parliament.uk, 0141 620 6310
You can still have anomalies. In this poll, 2% say they'll vote Conservative in Scotland!
@Spectator_CH: Why has Rachel Reeves tried to blame the OBR for Ed Miliband’s job predictions? http://t.co/Q8OpTY6cxD by @frasernelson
The end of surplus rural labour — a significant milestone that economists call the Lewis Turning Point — carries profound implications for China’s economy. As the flow of low-paid migrants into Chinese factories slows, workers demand higher pay, a phenomenon that has been evident for several years. This either drives low-end manufacturers out of business or forces them to raise prices, actions that could slow the export growth that has helped drive the country’s economy for decades.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/767495a0-e99b-11e4-b863-00144feab7de.html#axzz3ZHPYTLt1
You: Apologies if this has been covered somewhere but do we know who has carried the poll when Lord A publishes one?
RobD: I don't think so, he keeps that info private.
That is "being shouted down by the PBTories, is it? I hope RobD is thoroughly ashamed of himself.
Just like the polls to ruin some good old fashioned fun poking fun at an overpromoted flunkey.
Personally I'm a little bit warier of LA than others because it is less transparent. It tends to produce pro-Tory results. That in itself is not a problem - ICM does does likewise - but if his Lordship is using ICM wholly or predominantly there would be a certain double-counting.
As a punter I just tend to stand back and look at the bigger picture produced by all the pollsters. Unequivocally they are suggesting a tie, as near as dammit, and in the popular vote that looks pretty much what we will get.
The Conservatives may have a slight edge in GOTV but Labour a similar one in the marginals.
I expect 'Most Seats' to be close - very close.
S East:
Cons: 44
LAB: 25
LD: 10;
UKIP:10;
Green: 11
Midlands:
Cons: 36
LAB: 27
LD: 7
UKIP: 16
Green: 7
North:
Cons: 24
LAB: 51
LD: 7
UKIP: 12
Green: 5
Wales & SW
Cons: 30
LAB: 21
LD: 17
UKIP: 16
Green: 9
PC:4
Wow !
I hope these numbers are correct.