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  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    FalseFlag said:

    Sean_F said:

    SeanT said:

    Mr. Flag, maybe.

    There's little political freedom and the one child policy is going to mean a relative labour shortage, raising wages, and then creating a situation akin to our baby boomer pension problem [but writ large].

    They've just about ended the one child policy. The last rules will be gone in a few years.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/china/10451767/China-to-ease-one-child-policy.html

    China still faces demog problems, but I don't think they will seriously hurt the economy for another 20-40 years. And there's always the chance they will start manufacturing babies. Literally.

    http://www.nature.com/news/chinese-scientists-genetically-modify-human-embryos-1.17378
    It's hugely difficult to turn round a birthrate that's plummeted.
    Russia has.
    An impressive feat if true.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    Just looked at the Populus poll, they've done another spiral of silence thing, like they did on Friday. But they are an ONLINE poll!

    In a Populus poll I participated in a few days ago UKIP wasn't even mentioned as party in it's own right but was grouped with others. Needless to say I protested this vigorously in the comments page. Answer came there none, and I don't expect one either.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Sean_F said:

    murali_s said:

    Haven't we been told to avoid looking at sub-samples?

    Reworking the poll by excluding Scotland to leave England and Wales is reasonable. England and Wales is 92% of the electorate.

    You can still have anomalies. In this poll, 2% say they'll vote Conservative in Scotland!
    You can quite reasonably work backwards. Take a weighted Scotland poll, the last one say, and make it fixed. Now do trial and error with E&W numbers until you get the same distribution party wise GB wide as the poll.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    SMukesh said:

    Will the SNP thugs cost them votes?Price of hubris.

    Like Marie Rimmer, shortly due in court for an alleged assault during the First Indyref campaign?
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006
    Ishmael_X said:

    OllyT said:

    OllyT said:

    So the first phone poll of the week sees the Tory lead drop 4% in a week, and as we know, phone polls are the gold standard.

    So you could say 'Tories dropping like a stone....'

    OK, where's my coat.
    Ishmael_X said:

    OllyT said:

    So the first phone poll of the week sees the Tory lead drop 4% in a week, and as we know, phone polls are the gold standard.

    You can't compute a drop like that with Ashcroft because there is no way of knowing whether the same polling company did both polls.
    I was criticising the fact that we do not know who conducts the Ashcroft polls last week but I was of course shouted down by the PB Tories when it was showing a 6% Tory lead! Last week's Ashcroft was almost certainly an outlier, unless of course you do think that the last week has been that bad for the Tories.

    Embarrassingly for you, I just checked. The entire exchange looks like this:

    You: Apologies if this has been covered somewhere but do we know who has carried the poll when Lord A publishes one?

    RobD: I don't think so, he keeps that info private.

    That is "being shouted down by the PBTories, is it? I hope RobD is thoroughly ashamed of himself.
    You forgot the "rattled lefty" bit, come on keep up[
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    THE Scottish National Party is to develop its own flag and a special salute for party members.

    Julian Cook, professor of politics at Edinburgh University, said: “A nationalist movement dominating its society in every way. Who in their right mind does not think that’s a brilliant idea?”
    http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/international/snp-developing-its-own-flag-and-salute-2015050197960
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417
    Sean_F said:

    SeanT said:

    Mr. Flag, maybe.

    There's little political freedom and the one child policy is going to mean a relative labour shortage, raising wages, and then creating a situation akin to our baby boomer pension problem [but writ large].

    They've just about ended the one child policy. The last rules will be gone in a few years.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/china/10451767/China-to-ease-one-child-policy.html

    China still faces demog problems, but I don't think they will seriously hurt the economy for another 20-40 years. And there's always the chance they will start manufacturing babies. Literally.

    http://www.nature.com/news/chinese-scientists-genetically-modify-human-embryos-1.17378
    It's hugely difficult to turn round a birthrate that's plummeted.
    SeanT will help them out.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    edited May 2015
    Plato said:

    You do talk complete rubbish at times. This is another example of it. I thought your very peculiar definition of *libertarianism* was a low point. I was wrong.

    Dair said:

    TGOHF said:

    Dair said:

    Stupid, stupid SNP.

    They've put yesterdays pseudo-False Flag back in the news.

    Looks like Murphy has found the SNP's Achilles heel ..

    Thuggery, lies and a penchant for anti-democratic behaviour. Whoever would have thought it from a nationalist party?

    The Labour Party are a Nationalist party.
    The Tories are a Nationalist party.
    The Lib Dems are a Nationalist party.

    Which of the three's thugs are you referring to?

    Maybe the Labour PPC for St Helens South waiting for her trial for an alleged assault at a Poling Place?
    So you think there is no hypocrisy in British nationalists using the word "nationalist" as a pejorative? It is hard to believe what knots British nationalism ties itself up in.

    Every time a British nationalist pejoratively refers to SNP or Independence supporters as nats or nationalists they lose the argument. It's the 21st century Godwin.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Only 1 hour until MikeK's forecast.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    john_zims said:

    @Financier

    S East:
    Cons: 44
    LAB: 25
    LD: 10;
    UKIP:10;
    Green: 11

    Midlands:
    Cons: 36
    LAB: 27
    LD: 7
    UKIP: 16
    Green: 7

    North:
    Cons: 24
    LAB: 51
    LD: 7
    UKIP: 12
    Green: 5

    Wales & SW
    Cons: 30
    LAB: 21
    LD: 17
    UKIP: 16
    Green: 9
    PC:4

    Wow !

    I hope these numbers are correct.

    The sub samples are not weighted. Meaningless.
  • AllyPally_RobAllyPally_Rob Posts: 605
    The images from Glasgow of the Nationalist activists are actually quite sad. I went to university in Scotland (Edinburgh) and back then it seemed a far more outward looking place.

    From recent visits it seems to have turned inwards become preoccupied with its own national identity, saltires flying everywhere ect. I heard Sturgeon on Radio 2 earlier and they played the proclaimers because its her favourite song apparently, such an obvious and boring choice. I imagine if they'd have asked what her favourite soft drink was she'd have inevitably said Irn-Bru aswell.

    Maybe its just me but a country that has to shout about its patriotism doesn't strike me as one that is at ease with itself.

    IMHO both Labour and SNP politicians are partly responsible for this, playing up victimisation of the Scots for their own political gain. As a Labour voter I'm saddened to say that.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    OllyT said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    OllyT said:

    OllyT said:

    So the first phone poll of the week sees the Tory lead drop 4% in a week, and as we know, phone polls are the gold standard.

    So you could say 'Tories dropping like a stone....'

    OK, where's my coat.
    Ishmael_X said:

    OllyT said:

    So the first phone poll of the week sees the Tory lead drop 4% in a week, and as we know, phone polls are the gold standard.

    You can't compute a drop like that with Ashcroft because there is no way of knowing whether the same polling company did both polls.
    I was criticising the fact that we do not know who conducts the Ashcroft polls last week but I was of course shouted down by the PB Tories when it was showing a 6% Tory lead! Last week's Ashcroft was almost certainly an outlier, unless of course you do think that the last week has been that bad for the Tories.

    Embarrassingly for you, I just checked. The entire exchange looks like this:

    You: Apologies if this has been covered somewhere but do we know who has carried the poll when Lord A publishes one?

    RobD: I don't think so, he keeps that info private.

    That is "being shouted down by the PBTories, is it? I hope RobD is thoroughly ashamed of himself.
    You forgot the "rattled lefty" bit, come on keep up[
    I think that goes without saying, when you resort to such easily detectable lying.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Sean_F said:

    3.5% swing in England and Wales from Conservative to Labour. If that were uniform, that would result in 41 Labour gains from the Conservatives (assuming that Thurrock goes to UKIP). Factoring in gains from the Lib Dems, and losses to UKIP, that would leave both parties in the 270s.

    We know it won't be uniform because Labour are going to do better than average in the big metropolitan centres.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    kle4 said:

    FalseFlag said:

    Sean_F said:

    SeanT said:

    Mr. Flag, maybe.

    There's little political freedom and the one child policy is going to mean a relative labour shortage, raising wages, and then creating a situation akin to our baby boomer pension problem [but writ large].

    They've just about ended the one child policy. The last rules will be gone in a few years.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/china/10451767/China-to-ease-one-child-policy.html

    China still faces demog problems, but I don't think they will seriously hurt the economy for another 20-40 years. And there's always the chance they will start manufacturing babies. Literally.

    http://www.nature.com/news/chinese-scientists-genetically-modify-human-embryos-1.17378
    It's hugely difficult to turn round a birthrate that's plummeted.
    Russia has.
    An impressive feat if true.
    I'm interested in this - how has it happened? I thought Russia was in terminal demographic decline.

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672
    FalseFlag said:

    SeanT said:

    Mr. Flag, maybe.

    There's little political freedom and the one child policy is going to mean a relative labour shortage, raising wages, and then creating a situation akin to our baby boomer pension problem [but writ large].

    They've just about ended the one child policy. The last rules will be gone in a few years.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/china/10451767/China-to-ease-one-child-policy.html

    China still faces demog problems, but I don't think they will seriously hurt the economy for another 20-40 years. And there's always the chance they will start manufacturing babies. Literally.

    http://www.nature.com/news/chinese-scientists-genetically-modify-human-embryos-1.17378

    It is beginning to happen already:

    The end of surplus rural labour — a significant milestone that economists call the Lewis Turning Point — carries profound implications for China’s economy. As the flow of low-paid migrants into Chinese factories slows, workers demand higher pay, a phenomenon that has been evident for several years. This either drives low-end manufacturers out of business or forces them to raise prices, actions that could slow the export growth that has helped drive the country’s economy for decades.

    http://www.ft.com/cms/s/2/767495a0-e99b-11e4-b863-00144feab7de.html#axzz3ZHPYTLt1


    China is explicitly trying to raise real wages, develop the consumer/service sector and subsequently move up the value chain, sweat shops will have to move elsewhere. This is something to be welcomed not avoided.

    Tell me about it: we have actually started to make some money from the Chinese; it's great. Expectations are rising there among the population and as the elderly die memories of perpetual hunger and cold are fading away. China is going to become a much harder place to govern and a lot more is going to have to be thrown at its citizens to keep them sweet.
  • ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    Ed is an admirer of Comrade Hollande, right?

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-32587377
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,067
    SMukesh said:

    Will the SNP thugs cost them votes?Price of hubris.

    I think it will. The nationalists are shouting down all opposition. The silent ones will have their revenge at the ballot box. Expect some surprising results from Scotland.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,546

    OllyT said:

    OllyT said:

    So the first phone poll of the week sees the Tory lead drop 4% in a week, and as we know, phone polls are the gold standard.

    So you could say 'Tories dropping like a stone....'

    OK, where's my coat.
    Ishmael_X said:

    OllyT said:

    So the first phone poll of the week sees the Tory lead drop 4% in a week, and as we know, phone polls are the gold standard.

    You can't compute a drop like that with Ashcroft because there is no way of knowing whether the same polling company did both polls.
    I was criticising the fact that we do not know who conducts the Ashcroft polls last week but I was of course shouted down by the PB Tories when it was showing a 6% Tory lead! Last week's Ashcroft was almost certainly an outlier, unless of course you do think that the last week has been that bad for the Tories.

    We won't know which were the outliers until the votes are counted.

    Personally I'm a little bit warier of LA than others because it is less transparent. It tends to produce pro-Tory results. That in itself is not a problem - ICM does does likewise - but if his Lordship is using ICM wholly or predominantly there would be a certain double-counting.

    As a punter I just tend to stand back and look at the bigger picture produced by all the pollsters. Unequivocally they are suggesting a tie, as near as dammit, and in the popular vote that looks pretty much what we will get.

    The Conservatives may have a slight edge in GOTV but Labour a similar one in the marginals.

    I expect 'Most Seats' to be close - very close.
    So do I. But, I think the Tories can't get to the 295 they need. Still, we'll see.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    kle4 said:

    FalseFlag said:

    Sean_F said:

    SeanT said:

    Mr. Flag, maybe.

    There's little political freedom and the one child policy is going to mean a relative labour shortage, raising wages, and then creating a situation akin to our baby boomer pension problem [but writ large].

    They've just about ended the one child policy. The last rules will be gone in a few years.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/china/10451767/China-to-ease-one-child-policy.html

    China still faces demog problems, but I don't think they will seriously hurt the economy for another 20-40 years. And there's always the chance they will start manufacturing babies. Literally.

    http://www.nature.com/news/chinese-scientists-genetically-modify-human-embryos-1.17378
    It's hugely difficult to turn round a birthrate that's plummeted.
    Russia has.
    An impressive feat if true.
    It is true, and it confirms my suspicions that the birth rate is strongly correlated with condoms (social-religious factors) , urbanization and income (quality of life).
  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,759
    Dair said:

    SMukesh said:

    Will the SNP thugs cost them votes?Price of hubris.

    Like Marie Rimmer, shortly due in court for an alleged assault during the First Indyref campaign?
    I did post a couple of days ago that the atmosphere in Scotland was becoming rather intimidatory for
    Other political views to be expressed.Rather expected this sort of event to happen given the buildup
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @GuidoFawkes: Donations 20th April-26th April http://t.co/uCKfb9oDFF

    @paulhutcheon: New from Electoral Commission: body called "Focus on Scotland" gives 105k to the @Conservatives #GE2015
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    AndyJS said:

    Sean_F said:

    3.5% swing in England and Wales from Conservative to Labour. If that were uniform, that would result in 41 Labour gains from the Conservatives (assuming that Thurrock goes to UKIP). Factoring in gains from the Lib Dems, and losses to UKIP, that would leave both parties in the 270s.

    We know it won't be uniform because Labour are going to do better than average in the big metropolitan centres.
    Andy, you are coming up with lots of caveats. I think you are getting a bit nervous !
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Oops

    @TimGatt: Ed Miliband slaps down his election chief over #Edstone? https://t.co/Dt2rWz6jZo
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,149
    MikeK said:

    Just looked at the Populus poll, they've done another spiral of silence thing, like they did on Friday. But they are an ONLINE poll!

    In a Populus poll I participated in a few days ago UKIP wasn't even mentioned as party in it's own right but was grouped with others. Needless to say I protested this vigorously in the comments page. Answer came there none, and I don't expect one either.
    So how come UKIP are listed separately in tables 2, 3 and 4 here:
    http://www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/OmOnline_Vote_05-05-2015_BPC.pdf
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366
    Dair,

    You're talking about Marie Rimmer who will be the new MP for St Helens South even if she ate Nicola Sturgeon's liver with some fava beans and a nice chianti.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    edited May 2015

    The images from Glasgow of the Nationalist activists are actually quite sad. I went to university in Scotland (Edinburgh) and back then it seemed a far more outward looking place.

    From recent visits it seems to have turned inwards become preoccupied with its own national identity, saltires flying everywhere ect. I heard Sturgeon on Radio 2 earlier and they played the proclaimers because its her favourite song apparently, such an obvious and boring choice. I imagine if they'd have asked what her favourite soft drink was she'd have inevitably said Irn-Bru aswell.

    Maybe its just me but a country that has to shout about its patriotism doesn't strike me as one that is at ease with itself.

    IMHO both Labour and SNP politicians are partly responsible for this, playing up victimisation of the Scots for their own political gain. As a Labour voter I'm saddened to say that.

    Only a few months ago Labour, SNP , L/Dems and Tory PBers were quite happy to have Nigel Farage attacked by the rent-a-mob in Glasgow, and many were quite gleeful. How does it feel now that the boots on the other foot and these thugs are attacking Labour and will probably attack Tories in the future too?
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115

    The images from Glasgow of the Nationalist activists are actually quite sad. I went to university in Scotland (Edinburgh) and back then it seemed a far more outward looking place.

    From recent visits it seems to have turned inwards become preoccupied with its own national identity, saltires flying everywhere ect. I heard Sturgeon on Radio 2 earlier and they played the proclaimers because its her favourite song apparently, such an obvious and boring choice. I imagine if they'd have asked what her favourite soft drink was she'd have inevitably said Irn-Bru aswell.

    Maybe its just me but a country that has to shout about its patriotism doesn't strike me as one that is at ease with itself.

    IMHO both Labour and SNP politicians are partly responsible for this, playing up victimisation of the Scots for their own political gain. As a Labour voter I'm saddened to say that.

    There is a big and significant difference between patriotism and nationalism.

  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited May 2015
    MikeK said:

    Only 1 hour until MikeK's forecast.

    I will keep my forecast for tomorrow night, the problem is that my graphics card burned out so I have to recollect my data temporarily in another computer.

    But so far the average for the last 6 polls is LAB 33, CON 32.5, UKIP 13.5, LD 9.5, GRN 5.5.

    Not sure if the Tories will have most votes, but increasingly Labour might have most seats.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,395
    SMukesh said:

    Dair said:

    SMukesh said:

    Will the SNP thugs cost them votes?Price of hubris.

    Like Marie Rimmer, shortly due in court for an alleged assault during the First Indyref campaign?
    I did post a couple of days ago that the atmosphere in Scotland was becoming rather intimidatory for
    Other political views to be expressed.Rather expected this sort of event to happen given the buildup
    How do you know it's getting intimidatory?

    Thrugh the media, all of which is anti-SNP except for one daily (perhaps two) and one Sunday, both Scottish?



  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,149
    Speedy said:

    kle4 said:

    FalseFlag said:

    Sean_F said:

    SeanT said:

    Mr. Flag, maybe.

    There's little political freedom and the one child policy is going to mean a relative labour shortage, raising wages, and then creating a situation akin to our baby boomer pension problem [but writ large].

    They've just about ended the one child policy. The last rules will be gone in a few years.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/china/10451767/China-to-ease-one-child-policy.html

    China still faces demog problems, but I don't think they will seriously hurt the economy for another 20-40 years. And there's always the chance they will start manufacturing babies. Literally.

    http://www.nature.com/news/chinese-scientists-genetically-modify-human-embryos-1.17378
    It's hugely difficult to turn round a birthrate that's plummeted.
    Russia has.
    An impressive feat if true.
    It is true, and it confirms my suspicions that the birth rate is strongly correlated with condoms (social-religious factors) , urbanization and income (quality of life).
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Russia
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    SMukesh said:

    Dair said:

    SMukesh said:

    Will the SNP thugs cost them votes?Price of hubris.

    Like Marie Rimmer, shortly due in court for an alleged assault during the First Indyref campaign?
    I did post a couple of days ago that the atmosphere in Scotland was becoming rather intimidatory for
    Other political views to be expressed.Rather expected this sort of event to happen given the buildup
    Yes.

    When I went to vote in the Infyref I had to run a gammut of around 20 British Nationalist Orange Order thugs from the lodge next to the polling place. You can probably picture the type, they fit every sterotype, shaved heads, huge beer bellies, glowring at everyone going in.

    The intimidation was quite clear.

    Obvious Marie Rimmer allegedly took it even further. Assaulting a young mother who simple wanted to exercise her democratic right to vote. Ms Rimmer's reward for this alleged act of British Nationalist thuggery? Labour have named her PPC for the relatively safe seat of St Helens South.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Golly, CCHQ aren't leaving any stone unturned - they've just called me to go out on polling day to GOTV.
  • JonCisBackJonCisBack Posts: 911
    There's a promoted tweet by the Mirror comparing famous backers of Labour and the Tories. Apparently we are supposed to be more impressed by the Labour one. Judge for yourselves:

    Lab

    Ronnie O'Sullivan, Delia, JK Rowling, Eddie Izzard, Jo Brand, Russell Brand (!), Martin freeman, Paul O'Grady, Ian McKellen, Daniel radcliffe

    Con

    Murdoch, Karen Brady, Gary Barlow, Andrew Lloyd Webber, Katie Hopkins

    OK Hopkins is a dreadful specimen, but otherwise it's 2 luvvies vs 7 (yawn), leaving a snooker player, a chef and a children's author vs 2 highly successful business people.

    is that the best they can do? It's clearly portrayed as a no-brained slam-dunk win for Labour.

    Er... not for me
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    MikeK said:

    Just looked at the Populus poll, they've done another spiral of silence thing, like they did on Friday. But they are an ONLINE poll!

    In a Populus poll I participated in a few days ago UKIP wasn't even mentioned as party in it's own right but was grouped with others. Needless to say I protested this vigorously in the comments page. Answer came there none, and I don't expect one either.
    So how come UKIP are listed separately in tables 2, 3 and 4 here:
    http://www.populus.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/OmOnline_Vote_05-05-2015_BPC.pdf
    I haven't the least idea. Maybe they guessed! Or perhaps other polls did have them named.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,395
    edited May 2015
    MikeK said:

    The images from Glasgow of the Nationalist activists are actually quite sad. I went to university in Scotland (Edinburgh) and back then it seemed a far more outward looking place.

    From recent visits it seems to have turned inwards become preoccupied with its own national identity, saltires flying everywhere ect. I heard Sturgeon on Radio 2 earlier and they played the proclaimers because its her favourite song apparently, such an obvious and boring choice. I imagine if they'd have asked what her favourite soft drink was she'd have inevitably said Irn-Bru aswell.

    Maybe its just me but a country that has to shout about its patriotism doesn't strike me as one that is at ease with itself.

    IMHO both Labour and SNP politicians are partly responsible for this, playing up victimisation of the Scots for their own political gain. As a Labour voter I'm saddened to say that.

    Only a few months ago Labour, SNP , L/Dems and Tory PBers were quite happy to have Nigel Farage attacked by the rent-a-mob in Glasgow, and many were quite gleeful. How does it feel now that the boots on the other foot and these thugs are attacking Labour and will probably attack Tories in the future too?
    In Glasgow?!

    Can you provide a reference for that incident, please? I wonder if you have got the city, the parties, and the 'attack' wrong. Edit: if you recall it as being in a pub then please say so as that fixes it nicely.
  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,759
    Carnyx said:

    SMukesh said:

    Dair said:

    SMukesh said:

    Will the SNP thugs cost them votes?Price of hubris.

    Like Marie Rimmer, shortly due in court for an alleged assault during the First Indyref campaign?
    I did post a couple of days ago that the atmosphere in Scotland was becoming rather intimidatory for
    Other political views to be expressed.Rather expected this sort of event to happen given the buildup
    How do you know it's getting intimidatory?

    Thrugh the media, all of which is anti-SNP except for one daily (perhaps two) and one Sunday, both Scottish?




    I reported the conversation with two Scottish Labour activists whad come down to London.
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    edited May 2015
    Apart from Wales and Scotland, I am finding this Election very difficult to read and so have not yet posted by guess at the result.The impact of a major newish party seems to have effects that are not uniform..
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    That's why I haven't given the Yestapo a cleanish sweep on 7th May in my prediction.

    I'd keep my mouth shut in the face of such vociferous campaigning. Shy Labour is becoming like Shy Tories were back in the day. Now you know how it feels. It's not nice.
    murali_s said:

    SMukesh said:

    Will the SNP thugs cost them votes?Price of hubris.

    I think it will. The nationalists are shouting down all opposition. The silent ones will have their revenge at the ballot box. Expect some surprising results from Scotland.
  • BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191
    Scott_P said:

    Oops

    @TimGatt: Ed Miliband slaps down his election chief over #Edstone? https://t.co/Dt2rWz6jZo

    YAY!
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    CD13 said:

    Dair,

    You're talking about Marie Rimmer who will be the new MP for St Helens South even if she ate Nicola Sturgeon's liver with some fava beans and a nice chianti.

    Her trial alleges an assault at a Polling Place.

    There are some crimes too horrific to the basic tenets of democracy to not be considered utterly appalling. An assault at a Polling Place is one of those crimes and if anyone is found guilty of such an offence the Sheriff should crack down with the full force of the law. The Polling Place should be sacrosanct.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Even Arnold Rimmer would win St Helens South as a hologram.
    CD13 said:

    Dair,

    You're talking about Marie Rimmer who will be the new MP for St Helens South even if she ate Nicola Sturgeon's liver with some fava beans and a nice chianti.

  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Plato said:

    Golly, CCHQ aren't leaving any stone unturned - they've just called me to go out on polling day to GOTV.

    Linford Crosby helping the sprint finish!
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100

    Speedy said:

    kle4 said:

    FalseFlag said:

    Sean_F said:

    SeanT said:

    Mr. Flag, maybe.

    There's little political freedom and the one child policy is going to mean a relative labour shortage, raising wages, and then creating a situation akin to our baby boomer pension problem [but writ large].

    They've just about ended the one child policy. The last rules will be gone in a few years.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/china/10451767/China-to-ease-one-child-policy.html

    China still faces demog problems, but I don't think they will seriously hurt the economy for another 20-40 years. And there's always the chance they will start manufacturing babies. Literally.

    http://www.nature.com/news/chinese-scientists-genetically-modify-human-embryos-1.17378
    It's hugely difficult to turn round a birthrate that's plummeted.
    Russia has.
    An impressive feat if true.
    It is true, and it confirms my suspicions that the birth rate is strongly correlated with condoms (social-religious factors) , urbanization and income (quality of life).
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Russia
    The birth rate collapsed with the depression of the 90's, logically because incomes and social services collapsed too and recovered along with the economy, but it's quality of life and sex education overall that determines the birth rate not just incomes.
  • If Tories can't form a government by the slimmest of margins, and Labour form a government that looks unable to survive for long, is Cameron still out as Tory leader? Or could he hang on if people think there'll be another election in several months to a year? It seems a narrowly defeated Cameron would still be a better Tory option going into a potential snap election than some untested replacement.
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366
    Dair,

    Be careful, you don't want to get the wrong side of Marie Rimmer. She may be 67 but she's got her kicking boots on and if she comes looking for you ...
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    john_zims said:

    @The_Apocalypse

    'I think Survation is due tomorrow. I think the only other poll we'll see tonight is YouGov.'

    I've just completed an ipsos mori for tomorrow?

    I think MORI is to be out on Thursday.

    @Ghedebrav

    I think young people's votes would matter - look at how the student vote could well impact the LDs. Right now, however it feels like many politicians simply aren't caring about the issues facing young people, because we don't come out and vote. Whereas many politicians are extraordinarily weary of upsetting the OAPs because they are by far certs to vote.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,546

    There's a promoted tweet by the Mirror comparing famous backers of Labour and the Tories. Apparently we are supposed to be more impressed by the Labour one. Judge for yourselves:

    Lab

    Ronnie O'Sullivan, Delia, JK Rowling, Eddie Izzard, Jo Brand, Russell Brand (!), Martin freeman, Paul O'Grady, Ian McKellen, Daniel radcliffe

    Con

    Murdoch, Karen Brady, Gary Barlow, Andrew Lloyd Webber, Katie Hopkins

    OK Hopkins is a dreadful specimen, but otherwise it's 2 luvvies vs 7 (yawn), leaving a snooker player, a chef and a children's author vs 2 highly successful business people.

    is that the best they can do? It's clearly portrayed as a no-brained slam-dunk win for Labour.

    Er... not for me

    Andrew Lloyd Webber gave my step-son a fantastic career break, as Rum Tum Tugger in Cats, so I'd rate him the highest of them all.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860

    The images from Glasgow of the Nationalist activists are actually quite sad. I went to university in Scotland (Edinburgh) and back then it seemed a far more outward looking place.

    From recent visits it seems to have turned inwards become preoccupied with its own national identity, saltires flying everywhere ect. I heard Sturgeon on Radio 2 earlier and they played the proclaimers because its her favourite song apparently, such an obvious and boring choice. I imagine if they'd have asked what her favourite soft drink was she'd have inevitably said Irn-Bru aswell.

    Maybe its just me but a country that has to shout about its patriotism doesn't strike me as one that is at ease with itself.

    IMHO both Labour and SNP politicians are partly responsible for this, playing up victimisation of the Scots for their own political gain. As a Labour voter I'm saddened to say that.

    To be fair the whole election has been extraordinarily introspective across the UK. Though I take your point; I've a longstanding soft spot for Scotland (no family ties, just visited many times, happy memories etc.) and find the emerging ultranationalism a bit sinister - not in a Godwin way, just in a slightly crap, depressing way.

    My personal instinct is generally to avoid those who peddle simple answers to complex questions, especially when combined with nationalism/patriotism, regardless of whether they're doing it from the right or the left.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    The Tories are doing very well in the latter stages - do we know the breakdown of them?
    Scott_P said:

    @GuidoFawkes: Donations 20th April-26th April http://t.co/uCKfb9oDFF

    @paulhutcheon: New from Electoral Commission: body called "Focus on Scotland" gives 105k to the @Conservatives #GE2015

  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,142
    Sean_F said:

    Mortimer said:

    When is populus due, anyone?

    We've had it. Both Conservatives and Labour on 34%.
    Thanks Sean. That'll teach me to be pounding the pavements rather than obsessing about polls.

    Blowing a houlie down here in the South. Holding onto leaflets for dear life!

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453

    If Tories can't form a government by the slimmest of margins, and Labour form a government that looks unable to survive for long, is Cameron still out as Tory leader? Or could he hang on if people think there'll be another election in several months to a year? It seems a narrowly defeated Cameron would still be a better Tory option going into a potential snap election than some untested replacement.

    Depends how many nutters in the 1922.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    SMukesh said:

    Carnyx said:

    SMukesh said:

    Dair said:

    SMukesh said:

    Will the SNP thugs cost them votes?Price of hubris.

    Like Marie Rimmer, shortly due in court for an alleged assault during the First Indyref campaign?
    I did post a couple of days ago that the atmosphere in Scotland was becoming rather intimidatory for
    Other political views to be expressed.Rather expected this sort of event to happen given the buildup
    How do you know it's getting intimidatory?

    Thrugh the media, all of which is anti-SNP except for one daily (perhaps two) and one Sunday, both Scottish?




    I reported the conversation with two Scottish Labour activists whad come down to London.
    Ah so it's a report which is "Fair and Balanced" in the Fox News definition of the term.
  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,759
    Plato said:

    Golly, CCHQ aren't leaving any stone unturned - they've just called me to go out on polling day to GOTV.

    Desperation creeping in?

    Lab have organised a big volunteer team for GOTV in this marginal.
  • acf2310acf2310 Posts: 141
    Don't disagree with the Ashcroft headline finding (though I think it's more 34-32 than 32-30 in reality) but some of those internals are weird.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    The Labour leader says he does not accept the assessment of the Institute for Fiscal Studies which has said that debt would be £90 bn higher in 2019/20 if Labour's plans were implemented rather than the Tories.

    Mr Miliband also says his campaign vice chairman Lucy Powell was wrong to suggest his decision to carve his key policies in stone wouldn't mean they would never be broken.
    Didn't spend too much last time, won't this time, honest...

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/election-2015-32557049
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,656
    edited May 2015
    FalseFlag said:

    Sean_F said:

    SeanT said:

    Mr. Flag, maybe.

    There's little political freedom and the one child policy is going to mean a relative labour shortage, raising wages, and then creating a situation akin to our baby boomer pension problem [but writ large].

    They've just about ended the one child policy. The last rules will be gone in a few years.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/china/10451767/China-to-ease-one-child-policy.html

    China still faces demog problems, but I don't think they will seriously hurt the economy for another 20-40 years. And there's always the chance they will start manufacturing babies. Literally.

    http://www.nature.com/news/chinese-scientists-genetically-modify-human-embryos-1.17378
    It's hugely difficult to turn round a birthrate that's plummeted.
    Russia has.
    Putin commanded, and the women of Russia obeyed.

    If only we had Putin to wish a higher birth rate.

    We are about to enter the "echo" of the early 1990s collapse in birth rates, and therefore we can expect the Russian birth rate to decline markedly in the next few years. Especially as the Russian economy contracts.
  • Plato said:

    Golly, CCHQ aren't leaving any stone unturned - they've just called me to go out on polling day to GOTV.

    Either:
    1. Knock up reminders to the "definite Conservatives" who have not yet voted. Phone or door knocking
    2. Duty at a polling station to gather poll card numbers (to cut down on 1st list)
    3. Data entry of the poll card numbers - unless they have it automated from point 2.
    The best run do it.
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,932
    Speedy said:

    kle4 said:

    FalseFlag said:

    Sean_F said:

    SeanT said:

    Mr. Flag, maybe.

    There's little political freedom and the one child policy is going to mean a relative labour shortage, raising wages, and then creating a situation akin to our baby boomer pension problem [but writ large].

    They've just about ended the one child policy. The last rules will be gone in a few years.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/china/10451767/China-to-ease-one-child-policy.html

    China still faces demog problems, but I don't think they will seriously hurt the economy for another 20-40 years. And there's always the chance they will start manufacturing babies. Literally.

    http://www.nature.com/news/chinese-scientists-genetically-modify-human-embryos-1.17378
    It's hugely difficult to turn round a birthrate that's plummeted.
    Russia has.
    An impressive feat if true.
    It is true, and it confirms my suspicions that the birth rate is strongly correlated with condoms (social-religious factors) , urbanization and income (quality of life).
    MikeK said:

    Only 1 hour until MikeK's forecast.

    Will UKIP do quite well ;-) ?
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Carnyx said:

    MikeK said:

    The images from Glasgow of the Nationalist activists are actually quite sad. I went to university in Scotland (Edinburgh) and back then it seemed a far more outward looking place.

    From recent visits it seems to have turned inwards become preoccupied with its own national identity, saltires flying everywhere ect. I heard Sturgeon on Radio 2 earlier and they played the proclaimers because its her favourite song apparently, such an obvious and boring choice. I imagine if they'd have asked what her favourite soft drink was she'd have inevitably said Irn-Bru aswell.

    Maybe its just me but a country that has to shout about its patriotism doesn't strike me as one that is at ease with itself.

    IMHO both Labour and SNP politicians are partly responsible for this, playing up victimisation of the Scots for their own political gain. As a Labour voter I'm saddened to say that.

    Only a few months ago Labour, SNP , L/Dems and Tory PBers were quite happy to have Nigel Farage attacked by the rent-a-mob in Glasgow, and many were quite gleeful. How does it feel now that the boots on the other foot and these thugs are attacking Labour and will probably attack Tories in the future too?
    In Glasgow?!

    Can you provide a reference for that incident, please? I wonder if you have got the city, the parties, and the 'attack' wrong. Edit: if you recall it as being in a pub then please say so as that fixes it nicely.
    It happened in the EU election last year and was widely published because - laughably - Farage was forced into a pub for protection.
  • SMukeshSMukesh Posts: 1,759
    Dair said:

    SMukesh said:

    Carnyx said:

    SMukesh said:

    Dair said:

    SMukesh said:

    Will the SNP thugs cost them votes?Price of hubris.

    Like Marie Rimmer, shortly due in court for an alleged assault during the First Indyref campaign?
    I did post a couple of days ago that the atmosphere in Scotland was becoming rather intimidatory for
    Other political views to be expressed.Rather expected this sort of event to happen given the buildup
    How do you know it's getting intimidatory?

    Thrugh the media, all of which is anti-SNP except for one daily (perhaps two) and one Sunday, both Scottish?




    I reported the conversation with two Scottish Labour activists whad come down to London.
    Ah so it's a report which is "Fair and Balanced" in the Fox News definition of the term.
    SNP thugs photos in all the websites...Balanced enough for you?
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    That must be a relief for Durex :neutral:
    Speedy said:

    kle4 said:

    FalseFlag said:

    Sean_F said:

    SeanT said:

    Mr. Flag, maybe.

    There's little political freedom and the one child policy is going to mean a relative labour shortage, raising wages, and then creating a situation akin to our baby boomer pension problem [but writ large].

    They've just about ended the one child policy. The last rules will be gone in a few years.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/china/10451767/China-to-ease-one-child-policy.html

    China still faces demog problems, but I don't think they will seriously hurt the economy for another 20-40 years. And there's always the chance they will start manufacturing babies. Literally.

    http://www.nature.com/news/chinese-scientists-genetically-modify-human-embryos-1.17378
    It's hugely difficult to turn round a birthrate that's plummeted.
    Russia has.
    An impressive feat if true.
    It is true, and it confirms my suspicions that the birth rate is strongly correlated with condoms (social-religious factors) , urbanization and income (quality of life).
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    CD13 said:

    Dair,

    Be careful, you don't want to get the wrong side of Marie Rimmer. She may be 67 but she's got her kicking boots on and if she comes looking for you ...

    Allegedly. Remember the allegedly for at least a couple of months.
  • NoEasyDayNoEasyDay Posts: 454
    Sean_F said:

    There's a promoted tweet by the Mirror comparing famous backers of Labour and the Tories. Apparently we are supposed to be more impressed by the Labour one. Judge for yourselves:

    Lab

    Ronnie O'Sullivan, Delia, JK Rowling, Eddie Izzard, Jo Brand, Russell Brand (!), Martin freeman, Paul O'Grady, Ian McKellen, Daniel radcliffe

    Con

    Murdoch, Karen Brady, Gary Barlow, Andrew Lloyd Webber, Katie Hopkins

    OK Hopkins is a dreadful specimen, but otherwise it's 2 luvvies vs 7 (yawn), leaving a snooker player, a chef and a children's author vs 2 highly successful business people.

    is that the best they can do? It's clearly portrayed as a no-brained slam-dunk win for Labour.

    Er... not for me

    Andrew Lloyd Webber gave my step-son a fantastic career break, as Rum Tum Tugger in Cats, so I'd rate him the highest of them all.
    Jo Brand, Russell Brand....are are people with a surname Brand despicable specimens.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    edited May 2015

    There's a promoted tweet by the Mirror comparing famous backers of Labour and the Tories. Apparently we are supposed to be more impressed by the Labour one. Judge for yourselves:

    Lab

    Ronnie O'Sullivan, Delia, JK Rowling, Eddie Izzard, Jo Brand, Russell Brand (!), Martin freeman, Paul O'Grady, Ian McKellen, Daniel radcliffe

    Con

    Murdoch, Karen Brady, Gary Barlow, Andrew Lloyd Webber, Katie Hopkins

    OK Hopkins is a dreadful specimen, but otherwise it's 2 luvvies vs 7 (yawn), leaving a snooker player, a chef and a children's author vs 2 highly successful business people.

    is that the best they can do? It's clearly portrayed as a no-brained slam-dunk win for Labour.

    Er... not for me

    LOL....The actual list for both includes more names, but those are both pretty piss poor lists really.

    It seems more "on-vogue" to be a former Labour supporting celeb who now rips it out of both sides e.g. Ant & Dec, Noel Gallagher, Cheryl Fernandez-Versini.
  • calumcalum Posts: 3,046
    More Scottish people booing at journalists - these Nats are terrible:

    http://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/scotsol/homepage/news/ge2015/6442247/Browns-boo-boys.html

    Wait a minute it's not the Nats !!
  • AllyPally_RobAllyPally_Rob Posts: 605
    MikeK said:

    Carnyx said:

    MikeK said:

    The images from Glasgow of the Nationalist activists are actually quite sad. I went to university in Scotland (Edinburgh) and back then it seemed a far more outward looking place.

    From recent visits it seems to have turned inwards become preoccupied with its own national identity, saltires flying everywhere ect. I heard Sturgeon on Radio 2 earlier and they played the proclaimers because its her favourite song apparently, such an obvious and boring choice. I imagine if they'd have asked what her favourite soft drink was she'd have inevitably said Irn-Bru aswell.

    Maybe its just me but a country that has to shout about its patriotism doesn't strike me as one that is at ease with itself.

    IMHO both Labour and SNP politicians are partly responsible for this, playing up victimisation of the Scots for their own political gain. As a Labour voter I'm saddened to say that.

    Only a few months ago Labour, SNP , L/Dems and Tory PBers were quite happy to have Nigel Farage attacked by the rent-a-mob in Glasgow, and many were quite gleeful. How does it feel now that the boots on the other foot and these thugs are attacking Labour and will probably attack Tories in the future too?
    In Glasgow?!

    Can you provide a reference for that incident, please? I wonder if you have got the city, the parties, and the 'attack' wrong. Edit: if you recall it as being in a pub then please say so as that fixes it nicely.
    It happened in the EU election last year and was widely published because - laughably - Farage was forced into a pub for protection.
    I've got a feeling that was in Edinburgh Mike down the Royal Mile, but happy to be corrected.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664

    If Tories can't form a government by the slimmest of margins, and Labour form a government that looks unable to survive for long, is Cameron still out as Tory leader? Or could he hang on if people think there'll be another election in several months to a year? It seems a narrowly defeated Cameron would still be a better Tory option going into a potential snap election than some untested replacement.

    I think he'll walk. I am almost always wrong, though.
  • MonikerDiCanioMonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792

    The images from Glasgow of the Nationalist activists are actually quite sad. I went to university in Scotland (Edinburgh) and back then it seemed a far more outward looking place.

    From recent visits it seems to have turned inwards become preoccupied with its own national identity, saltires flying everywhere ect. I heard Sturgeon on Radio 2 earlier and they played the proclaimers because its her favourite song apparently, such an obvious and boring choice. I imagine if they'd have asked what her favourite soft drink was she'd have inevitably said Irn-Bru aswell.

    Maybe its just me but a country that has to shout about its patriotism doesn't strike me as one that is at ease with itself.

    IMHO both Labour and SNP politicians are partly responsible for this, playing up victimisation of the Scots for their own political gain. As a Labour voter I'm saddened to say that.

    Well said. The rise of the SNP is as deplorable as the rise of any nationalist movement such as the BNP, the EDL or the FN in France. It's depressing, disturbing and as you say Labour's divisive rhetoric in Scotland bears large responsibility for this sad turn of events.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417
    My colleague is heading up to Ayr on a holiday shortly, I'll be able to get an unbias assessment of Scotland from her post GE.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,395
    SMukesh said:

    Carnyx said:

    SMukesh said:

    Dair said:

    SMukesh said:

    Will the SNP thugs cost them votes?Price of hubris.

    Like Marie Rimmer, shortly due in court for an alleged assault during the First Indyref campaign?
    I did post a couple of days ago that the atmosphere in Scotland was becoming rather intimidatory for
    Other political views to be expressed.Rather expected this sort of event to happen given the buildup
    How do you know it's getting intimidatory?

    Thrugh the media, all of which is anti-SNP except for one daily (perhaps two) and one Sunday, both Scottish?




    I reported the conversation with two Scottish Labour activists whad come down to London.
    Hmm. Not exactly neutral observers.

    I'm beginning to sense that these claims stem rather from a panic that they are losing their control over their public - and that it is an easier excuse than looking into the other reasons. Have a look at that video report by Dan Hoggett (sp?) in the Guardian recently, on Coatbridge.
  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621
    edited May 2015
    FalseFlag said:

    Sean_F said:

    SeanT said:

    Mr. Flag, maybe.

    There's little political freedom and the one child policy is going to mean a relative labour shortage, raising wages, and then creating a situation akin to our baby boomer pension problem [but writ large].

    They've just about ended the one child policy. The last rules will be gone in a few years.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/china/10451767/China-to-ease-one-child-policy.html

    China still faces demog problems, but I don't think they will seriously hurt the economy for another 20-40 years. And there's always the chance they will start manufacturing babies. Literally.

    http://www.nature.com/news/chinese-scientists-genetically-modify-human-embryos-1.17378
    It's hugely difficult to turn round a birthrate that's plummeted.
    Russia has.
    kle4 said:

    FalseFlag said:

    Sean_F said:

    SeanT said:

    Mr. Flag, maybe.

    There's little political freedom and the one child policy is going to mean a relative labour shortage, raising wages, and then creating a situation akin to our baby boomer pension problem [but writ large].

    They've just about ended the one child policy. The last rules will be gone in a few years.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/china/10451767/China-to-ease-one-child-policy.html

    China still faces demog problems, but I don't think they will seriously hurt the economy for another 20-40 years. And there's always the chance they will start manufacturing babies. Literally.

    http://www.nature.com/news/chinese-scientists-genetically-modify-human-embryos-1.17378
    It's hugely difficult to turn round a birthrate that's plummeted.
    Russia has.
    An impressive feat if true.
    Births per 1000 population has been aided by crippling levels of alcoholism and associated mortality. The life expectancy of a Russian male is just 64.

    Not a great way to improve the measured birthrate, is it...

    Edit: According to wiki, it is actually worse than that, at 62. Just between Sudan and Gabon.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Plato said:

    Golly, CCHQ aren't leaving any stone unturned - they've just called me to go out on polling day to GOTV.

    Either:
    1. Knock up reminders to the "definite Conservatives" who have not yet voted. Phone or door knocking
    2. Duty at a polling station to gather poll card numbers (to cut down on 1st list)
    3. Data entry of the poll card numbers - unless they have it automated from point 2.
    The best run do it.
    Isn't it a bit late ? Your association /ward should have organised it last week.
  • NoEasyDayNoEasyDay Posts: 454

    The images from Glasgow of the Nationalist activists are actually quite sad. I went to university in Scotland (Edinburgh) and back then it seemed a far more outward looking place.

    From recent visits it seems to have turned inwards become preoccupied with its own national identity, saltires flying everywhere ect. I heard Sturgeon on Radio 2 earlier and they played the proclaimers because its her favourite song apparently, such an obvious and boring choice. I imagine if they'd have asked what her favourite soft drink was she'd have inevitably said Irn-Bru aswell.

    Maybe its just me but a country that has to shout about its patriotism doesn't strike me as one that is at ease with itself.

    IMHO both Labour and SNP politicians are partly responsible for this, playing up victimisation of the Scots for their own political gain. As a Labour voter I'm saddened to say that.

    AllyPally Rob, silly question but do you live by Ally Pally is that in the Wood Green and Hornsey Marginal ? if so what do you think ?
  • JonCisBackJonCisBack Posts: 911
    kle4 said:

    FalseFlag said:

    Sean_F said:

    SeanT said:

    Mr. Flag, maybe.

    There's little political freedom and the one child policy is going to mean a relative labour shortage, raising wages, and then creating a situation akin to our baby boomer pension problem [but writ large].

    They've just about ended the one child policy. The last rules will be gone in a few years.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/china/10451767/China-to-ease-one-child-policy.html

    China still faces demog problems, but I don't think they will seriously hurt the economy for another 20-40 years. And there's always the chance they will start manufacturing babies. Literally.

    http://www.nature.com/news/chinese-scientists-genetically-modify-human-embryos-1.17378
    It's hugely difficult to turn round a birthrate that's plummeted.
    Russia has.
    An impressive feat if true.
    I could be wrong, but I think it's only because Russian life expectancy is so low that the old age population is not growing much.

  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    isam said:

    Plato said:

    Golly, CCHQ aren't leaving any stone unturned - they've just called me to go out on polling day to GOTV.

    Linford Crosby helping the sprint finish!
    I saw Linford Christie this afternoon driving his big 4x4 in Amersham, you know it's him by the number plate.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,546
    Looking at the way the polls are converging, I'd expect UKIP to finish now on 12%.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    rcs1000 said:

    FalseFlag said:

    Sean_F said:

    SeanT said:

    Mr. Flag, maybe.

    There's little political freedom and the one child policy is going to mean a relative labour shortage, raising wages, and then creating a situation akin to our baby boomer pension problem [but writ large].

    They've just about ended the one child policy. The last rules will be gone in a few years.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/china/10451767/China-to-ease-one-child-policy.html

    China still faces demog problems, but I don't think they will seriously hurt the economy for another 20-40 years. And there's always the chance they will start manufacturing babies. Literally.

    http://www.nature.com/news/chinese-scientists-genetically-modify-human-embryos-1.17378
    It's hugely difficult to turn round a birthrate that's plummeted.
    Russia has.
    Putin commanded, and the women of Russia obeyed.

    If only we had Putin to wish a higher birth rate.

    We are about to enter the "echo" of the early 1990s collapse in birth rates, and therefore we can expect the Russian birth rate to decline markedly in the next few years. Especially as the Russian economy contracts.
    Was Putin always the father ?
  • MikeK said:

    The images from Glasgow of the Nationalist activists are actually quite sad. I went to university in Scotland (Edinburgh) and back then it seemed a far more outward looking place.

    From recent visits it seems to have turned inwards become preoccupied with its own national identity, saltires flying everywhere ect. I heard Sturgeon on Radio 2 earlier and they played the proclaimers because its her favourite song apparently, such an obvious and boring choice. I imagine if they'd have asked what her favourite soft drink was she'd have inevitably said Irn-Bru aswell.

    Maybe its just me but a country that has to shout about its patriotism doesn't strike me as one that is at ease with itself.

    IMHO both Labour and SNP politicians are partly responsible for this, playing up victimisation of the Scots for their own political gain. As a Labour voter I'm saddened to say that.

    Only a few months ago Labour, SNP , L/Dems and Tory PBers were quite happy to have Nigel Farage attacked by the rent-a-mob in Glasgow, and many were quite gleeful. How does it feel now that the boots on the other foot and these thugs are attacking Labour and will probably attack Tories in the future too?
    Which Tory PBers were quite happy to have Nigel Farage attacked by the rent-a-mob in Glasgow?
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,782
    FWIW (Not a lot) - I've just submitted my best estimate to Double Carpet's Election Game and share it here:

    Con 278
    Lab 265
    LD 25
    SNP 55
    PC 4
    UKIP 3
    Spkr 1
    Green 1
    NI 18 (DUP 10, SF 4, SDLP 3, Lady H 1)


    Labour Minority Govt with unofficial SNP/PC/SDLP support
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,223
    Can someone explain to me why I've seen more of Will Scobie on TV than Oliver Coppard?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,395
    MikeK said:

    Carnyx said:

    MikeK said:

    The images from Glasgow of the Nationalist activists are actually quite sad. I went to university in Scotland (Edinburgh) and back then it seemed a far more outward looking place.

    From recent visits it seems to have turned inwards become preoccupied with its own national identity, saltires flying everywhere ect. I heard Sturgeon on Radio 2 earlier and they played the proclaimers because its her favourite song apparently, such an obvious and boring choice. I imagine if they'd have asked what her favourite soft drink was she'd have inevitably said Irn-Bru aswell.

    Maybe its just me but a country that has to shout about its patriotism doesn't strike me as one that is at ease with itself.

    IMHO both Labour and SNP politicians are partly responsible for this, playing up victimisation of the Scots for their own political gain. As a Labour voter I'm saddened to say that.

    Only a few months ago Labour, SNP , L/Dems and Tory PBers were quite happy to have Nigel Farage attacked by the rent-a-mob in Glasgow, and many were quite gleeful. How does it feel now that the boots on the other foot and these thugs are attacking Labour and will probably attack Tories in the future too?
    In Glasgow?!

    Can you provide a reference for that incident, please? I wonder if you have got the city, the parties, and the 'attack' wrong. Edit: if you recall it as being in a pub then please say so as that fixes it nicely.
    It happened in the EU election last year and was widely published because - laughably - Farage was forced into a pub for protection.
    Ah, thanks. That fixes it - it was the one in the Royal Mile in Edinburgh. IIRC it was a leftie demo and the two who were arrested were either Labour and/or fron south of the border. Nothing to do with the SNP, though many tried to claim that they orchestrated it.

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,149
    Plato said:

    Golly, CCHQ aren't leaving any stone unturned - they've just called me to go out on polling day to GOTV.

    Will you be wearing your low-cut top? :)

    **perks up**
  • Bond_James_BondBond_James_Bond Posts: 1,939
    Dair said:

    SMukesh said:

    Dair said:

    SMukesh said:

    Will the SNP thugs cost them votes?Price of hubris.

    Like Marie Rimmer, shortly due in court for an alleged assault during the First Indyref campaign?
    I did post a couple of days ago that the atmosphere in Scotland was becoming rather intimidatory for
    Other political views to be expressed.Rather expected this sort of event to happen given the buildup
    Yes.

    When I went to vote in the Infyref I had to run a gammut of around 20 British Nationalist Orange Order thugs
    You mean gauntlet, I think.

    Those thugs were flaunting the rules, clearly.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,149
    Plato said:

    Even Arnold Rimmer would win St Helens South as a hologram.

    CD13 said:

    Dair,

    You're talking about Marie Rimmer who will be the new MP for St Helens South even if she ate Nicola Sturgeon's liver with some fava beans and a nice chianti.

    "What a guy!" LOL
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited May 2015

    Speedy said:

    kle4 said:

    FalseFlag said:

    Sean_F said:

    SeanT said:

    Mr. Flag, maybe.

    There's little political freedom and the one child policy is going to mean a relative labour shortage, raising wages, and then creating a situation akin to our baby boomer pension problem [but writ large].

    They've just about ended the one child policy. The last rules will be gone in a few years.

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/asia/china/10451767/China-to-ease-one-child-policy.html

    China still faces demog problems, but I don't think they will seriously hurt the economy for another 20-40 years. And there's always the chance they will start manufacturing babies. Literally.

    http://www.nature.com/news/chinese-scientists-genetically-modify-human-embryos-1.17378
    It's hugely difficult to turn round a birthrate that's plummeted.
    Russia has.
    An impressive feat if true.
    It is true, and it confirms my suspicions that the birth rate is strongly correlated with condoms (social-religious factors) , urbanization and income (quality of life).
    MikeK said:

    Only 1 hour until MikeK's forecast.

    Will UKIP do quite well ;-) ?
    We know that UKIP won't score enough votes by themselves to win seats without local or tactical votes, they need more that 16% on the national polls to do that.

    And Tories don't vote tactically apart for Blairites, so probably no UKIP gains from Labour, even if it means Labour gets most seats.
    And Labour voters will vote Tory to keep UKIP out, even if that means Tories might get more seats than Labour.

    3 seats it is, apart from a surprise if LordA has made a mistake or in a seat that hasn't been polled.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Betting implications

    @JoelTaylorMetro: @benatipsosmori tells #bbcnews that indications are that turnout set to be higher than last election; idea that public apathetic misguided
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Err? I'm in Eastbourne - we had Cameron here yesterday and Mr Nabavi has been out canvassing too.

    We're going to try to overturn a LD safeish seat - if you call that *desperate* it's a new definition for me. I'd call it ambitious.

    Or perhaps within touching distance.
    SMukesh said:

    Plato said:

    Golly, CCHQ aren't leaving any stone unturned - they've just called me to go out on polling day to GOTV.

    Desperation creeping in?

    Lab have organised a big volunteer team for GOTV in this marginal.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,968
    Dr. Prasannan, that's Ace Rimmer.
  • AllyPally_RobAllyPally_Rob Posts: 605
    NoEasyDay said:

    The images from Glasgow of the Nationalist activists are actually quite sad. I went to university in Scotland (Edinburgh) and back then it seemed a far more outward looking place.

    From recent visits it seems to have turned inwards become preoccupied with its own national identity, saltires flying everywhere ect. I heard Sturgeon on Radio 2 earlier and they played the proclaimers because its her favourite song apparently, such an obvious and boring choice. I imagine if they'd have asked what her favourite soft drink was she'd have inevitably said Irn-Bru aswell.

    Maybe its just me but a country that has to shout about its patriotism doesn't strike me as one that is at ease with itself.

    IMHO both Labour and SNP politicians are partly responsible for this, playing up victimisation of the Scots for their own political gain. As a Labour voter I'm saddened to say that.

    AllyPally Rob, silly question but do you live by Ally Pally is that in the Wood Green and Hornsey Marginal ? if so what do you think ?
    Yes indeed, I'm in Muswell Hill. A month ago I'd have said nailed on LAB Gain, but around my area there's Lynne Fetherstone posters and Boards outnumbering Labour one's 3-1 I'd say.

    It'll come down to 500 votes either way I'd guess. LAB have to get their vote in Wood Green and 'down the hill' out, because i don't think the Champagne Lefty's have deserted Fetherstone as I thought they would. Also depends what the Tory vote does in areas like Highgate.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,656
    Speedy said:

    We know that UKIP won't score enough votes by themselves to win seats without local or tactical votes, they need more that 16% on the national polls to do that.

    And Tories don't vote tactically apart for Blairites, so probably no UKIP gains from Labour, even if it means Labour gets most seats.
    And Labour voters will vote Tory to keep UKIP out, even if that means Tories might get more seats than Labour.

    3 seats it is, apart from a surprise if LordA has made a mistake or in a seat that hasn't been polled.

    It's Alliance disease, I'm afraid. Come 2020, UKIP's votes will be more efficiently distributed.
  • heseltineheseltine Posts: 50
    Lib dems briefing privately that they are confident abt Carshalton and Wallington and Kingston but a tad concerned about Sutton and Cheam and very concerned about Twickenham...
    Boris just completed his fourth visit of the campaign to Sutton and Cheam..
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Scott_P said:

    Betting implications

    @JoelTaylorMetro: @benatipsosmori tells #bbcnews that indications are that turnout set to be higher than last election; idea that public apathetic misguided

    The public are apathetic, they just want to express their apathy in the polling booth.
    Thus no party has a strong surge behind it apart from the SNP and no surge against it apart from the LD.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    :smile:

    Plato said:

    Even Arnold Rimmer would win St Helens South as a hologram.

    CD13 said:

    Dair,

    You're talking about Marie Rimmer who will be the new MP for St Helens South even if she ate Nicola Sturgeon's liver with some fava beans and a nice chianti.

    "What a guy!" LOL
  • Bond_James_BondBond_James_Bond Posts: 1,939

    There's a promoted tweet by the Mirror comparing famous backers of Labour and the Tories. Apparently we are supposed to be more impressed by the Labour one. Judge for yourselves:

    Lab

    Ronnie O'Sullivan, Delia, JK Rowling, Eddie Izzard, Jo Brand, Russell Brand (!), Martin freeman, Paul O'Grady, Ian McKellen, Daniel radcliffe

    Con

    Murdoch, Karen Brady, Gary Barlow, Andrew Lloyd Webber, Katie Hopkins

    OK Hopkins is a dreadful specimen, but otherwise it's 2 luvvies vs 7 (yawn), leaving a snooker player, a chef and a children's author vs 2 highly successful business people.

    is that the best they can do? It's clearly portrayed as a no-brained slam-dunk win for Labour.

    Er... not for me

    I look at that list and I think only stratospherically rich people can afford to vote Labour.

    Labour's idea of "the rich" is people who earn quite a good salary in the private sector. Public sector millionaires they are fine with - because they all want to be one - and multi-billionaires they simply fellate.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    tlg86 said:

    Can someone explain to me why I've seen more of Will Scobie on TV than Oliver Coppard?

    Proximity to London.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780
    heseltine said:

    Lib dems briefing privately that they are confident abt Carshalton and Wallington and Kingston but a tad concerned about Sutton and Cheam and very concerned about Twickenham...
    Boris just completed his fourth visit of the campaign to Sutton and Cheam..

    Please let Vince lose....please let Vince lose..
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    surbiton said:

    AndyJS said:

    Sean_F said:

    3.5% swing in England and Wales from Conservative to Labour. If that were uniform, that would result in 41 Labour gains from the Conservatives (assuming that Thurrock goes to UKIP). Factoring in gains from the Lib Dems, and losses to UKIP, that would leave both parties in the 270s.

    We know it won't be uniform because Labour are going to do better than average in the big metropolitan centres.
    Andy, you are coming up with lots of caveats. I think you are getting a bit nervous !
    I'm not supporting the Tories so I'm not nervous about them losing office. If that happens, congratulations to Ed.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,149
    edited May 2015

    Dr. Prasannan, that's Ace Rimmer.

    "Smoke me a kipper - I'll be back for breakfast!"
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Scott_P said:

    THE Scottish National Party is to develop its own flag and a special salute for party members.

    Julian Cook, professor of politics at Edinburgh University, said: “A nationalist movement dominating its society in every way. Who in their right mind does not think that’s a brilliant idea?”
    http://www.thedailymash.co.uk/news/international/snp-developing-its-own-flag-and-salute-2015050197960

    Sounds a bit pre-war to me.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672

    isam said:

    Plato said:

    Golly, CCHQ aren't leaving any stone unturned - they've just called me to go out on polling day to GOTV.

    Linford Crosby helping the sprint finish!
    I saw Linford Christie this afternoon driving his big 4x4 in Amersham, you know it's him by the number plate.

    DOP 3D?

This discussion has been closed.