Leaving aside the obvious references to hell freezing over, what has to happen for Lab to hit the magic majority number? Assuming they retain 5 in Scotland and LD down to 20 (probably the best real world numbers they could hope for), what's the necessary swing from Tories in E&W to get there?
1) The ICM poll in Sheffield Hallam which gives a boost to named candidates, possibly rendering Lord Ashcroft's polling moot
2) Labour's tacit admission that they are going to lose the popular vote and finish behind in seats
3) Sources close to Ed saying he will carry on as leader even if he doesn't become PM.
If the Liberals hopes and ambitions now rest entirely on a poll of 501 people in Sheffield Hallem, they do not have their troubles to seek.
The future of this country rests with my fellow Hallamites.
Who is this being driven by though - people who've had peeks at postals, CCHQ trying to rig the markets, shrewdies, mugs or what ?
I hope people have not had a sneek preview of my Lambert & Butler General Election Predictor Model ( Southend on Sea Formula with 8 million synergies)...........it's a game changer .
I see the SNP have suspended one of those oh so polite chaps from yesterday
One of the ones who hadn't got anything to do with the SNP?
No-one said they were not members of the SNP.
It was pointed out that no-one had presented any evidence that they were members.
We now know Doughty Brown was. We can also infer - as Clerkin is known - that Clerkin is not a member of the SNP (have read he left in 2007 a couple of times but never with a reference).
Who is this being driven by though - people who've had peeks at postals, CCHQ trying to rig the markets, shrewdies, mugs or what ?
Labour have been flailing since EdStone, if not before. They're palpably losing the last week of the campaign. Perhaps it is that?
Before the campaign started many in Labour did not seem to realise how good a position they might be in - even though a majority would be very difficult, the way our system works and the coalition mathetmatics point in their favour - and then smooth, reasonable Ed did not collapse and that many became more confident. Now, even though fundamentally they are still in a good position, they've slipped in the mockery war a little, and some few are panicing again, even though things still favour them (in the short term at least). Tories may weirdly have more momentum going in to the election aftermath even though they are the ones who are going to lose net seats.
I think the EdStone has claimed the mantle of Daftest campaign moment by a mile. What a stupid idiotic clusterf*ck of an idea (and i say that as a Lab voter).
Any other nominations for this accolade? The Tory promise to outlaw tax rises was another bonkers idea, but not in the same league as the EdStone IMHO. It just reminds me of those terrifying Aids adverts in the 80s!
The EdStone wasn't just the daftest moment of this election, it was the daftest moment in any election, ever, and none of us here shall see its like, in our lifetimes.
It might even be the Daftest Moment in human history, comparable only with the day Mad Queen Ravalona 1 of Madagascar ordered the construction of an enormous pair of scissors so she could the marching armies of her enemies in two*.
*True story.
I'm consoling myself with the thought that if (when) Ed does become PM, he might actually build this damned thing.
I think the Tory leader of Westminster Council who seemed to pooh-pooh it at the weekend on planning grounds should make sure there are no obstacles put in PM Miliband's way, and that appropriate pressure is put on No 10 to make this plan come to fruition.
He's already built the stone. It already exists. It is eight and a half foot high.
At a cost of £30,000, according to some reports....
Miliband's limestone slab is a masterpiece of modern political art. The Tate Modern should purchase it and instal it in the urinals where it would quickly become a landmark and much visited exhibit.
"Ed said that the stone would symbolise his commitment to keep his pledges and rebuild trust in British politics, a bit like Rory the Tory’s big pile of chucky stanes which was supposed to symbolise the eternal union between our two blesséd countries and which promptly vanished as soon as the independence referendum was out of the way. We can trust that Ed’s big stane will be equally irrelevant and impermanent, and within a week of the election it will be tied around the feet of the party’s Scottish strategists as they are tossed off the Labour boat as the recriminations get into full swing. [...]
Possibly the big stick of Edhenge rock is intended to be one of the obelisks from 2001, and its mere presence will impart sentience upon the rock bangers and head bangers surrounding it who will rapidly evolve into self aware beings. It will certainly raise the average IQ of the advisors who thought it was a good idea.
But it’s far too late for Labour to evolve into intelligent life, and Labour self-awareness died the day that they elected Tony Blair as party leader. On the eve of an election – they commission a tombstone. That’s the only symbolism that people will take from this latest idiocy."
Re London - with the FT, Economist, and Evening Standard all backing Conservatives and the Independent the coalition will this have a negative effect on labour's London dominance
Leaving aside the obvious references to hell freezing over, what has to happen for Lab to hit the magic majority number? Assuming they retain 5 in Scotland and LD down to 20 (probably the best real world numbers they could hope for), what's the necessary swing from Tories in E&W to get there?
Re London - with the FT, Economist, and Evening Standard all backing Conservatives and the Independent the coalition will this have a negative effect on labour's London dominance
I think the markets are moving on the back of a few things. 1. Sheffield Hallam poll throwing up doubts on the good lords marginal polling 2. Article in New statesman saying Labour top knobs don't believe the Ashcroft Marginals polling (believe they are in much worse position) 3. Article in Labour Uncut about the postal vote not holding up 36% down on last election, yeh I know its all meant to be secret.
I have to say the narrative of this election seems to have been largely driven by Ashcroft polling if that's up the Swanee, then anything is possible, Tory majority anyone ?
Yes, but it's still all Westminster Village stuff. Powell has made herself (and Ed Miliband) look silly, even accusing Guido of misogyny, so of course other parties will attack EdStone, but I doubt it'll be at the back of voters' minds come Thursday.
Don't worry - you'll get a significant Tory lead (and we'll see many on this site coincidentally at that moment not doubting the validity of Ashcroft polls).
I see the SNP have suspended one of those oh so polite chaps from yesterday
Can't have done. We have it on good authority *cough* he was nothing to do with the SNP.
I thought it was only Clerkin who people were saying that about.
Wasnt he the one who actually stood for the SNP (in a ward that people tried to deny even existed they were so sure that was black propaganda)?
Repeat the mantra all you want.
Asking someone to provide evidence of claims is quite different to saying the claim is wrong. Ironically, I'm the only person to actually provide evidence of a link between Clerkin and the SNP (he was a member in 2003 and a paper candidate in a now defunct ward well outside his residential area).
I understand the fear dyed in the wool Ulster Unionists like yourself have regarding the SNP but it's really none of your business how Scotland runs.
I am told by my friend who is a financial analyst in the city that the markets expect Miliband to be PM and have done so for weeks but the press don't want to report this.If any financial analysts are on here,could they confirm?
I am told by my friend who is a financial analyst in the city that the markets expect Miliband to be PM and have done so for weeks but the press don't want to report this.If any financial analysts are on here,could they confirm?
Yes, that's correct. Tens of thousands of traders have been sworn to secrecy.
Leaving aside the obvious references to hell freezing over, what has to happen for Lab to hit the magic majority number? Assuming they retain 5 in Scotland and LD down to 20 (probably the best real world numbers they could hope for), what's the necessary swing from Tories in E&W to get there?
Yes, but it's still all Westminster Village stuff. Powell has made herself (and Ed Miliband) look silly, even accusing Guido of misogyny, so of course other parties will attack EdStone, but I doubt it'll be at the back of voters' minds come Thursday.
When your trending 4th on Twitter it is no longer restricted to the Bubble.
I am told by my friend who is a financial analyst in the city that the markets expect Miliband to be PM and have done so for weeks but the press don't want to report this.If any financial analysts are on here,could they confirm?
I don't wish to be rude. But that's the most absurd thing I've heard this week.
I am told by my friend who is a financial analyst in the city that the markets expect Miliband to be PM and have done so for weeks but the press don't want to report this.If any financial analysts are on here,could they confirm?
Yes, that's correct. Tens of thousands of traders have been sworn to secrecy.
... and they're all making no trades on this basis.
Yes, but it's still all Westminster Village stuff. Powell has made herself (and Ed Miliband) look silly, even accusing Guido of misogyny, so of course other parties will attack EdStone, but I doubt it'll be at the back of voters' minds come Thursday.
When your trending 4th on Twitter it is no longer restricted to the Bubble.
I think it is still restricted. Twitter, to all intends a purposes has a centre-left demographic whose interests in politics and knowledge of politics ongoings go beyond your average person.
Besides being a totally naff thing to do, I am embarrassed that, compared to other statements in stone throughout history, the best that a potential leader of this country could come up with is a curtailed list of petty vacuous twitterings. He couldn't even think of 10 items! Is this the best that a potential ambassador of this country could do - if he's going to do it, it should be something that should stir the soul and last a thousand years! It is to be hoped that every politician holds these sentiments. The man's a lightweight!
Re London - with the FT, Economist, and Evening Standard all backing Conservatives and the Independent the coalition will this have a negative effect on labour's London dominance
London is home to vast numbers of students and people who are EU citizens, so I can't help wondering how many haven't registered to vote or aren't eligible.
The BES data about Labour's diminishing, ethnic minority advantage is also something to watch for.
If that's accurate, it will probably materialise in the more affluent London suburbs rather than Labour's inner-city core.
I am told by my friend who is a financial analyst in the city that the markets expect Miliband to be PM and have done so for weeks but the press don't want to report this.If any financial analysts are on here,could they confirm?
How can you hide the markets - they are on display every day? Neither FTSE nor £ look especially negative to me.
I am told by my friend who is a financial analyst in the city that the markets expect Miliband to be PM and have done so for weeks but the press don't want to report this.If any financial analysts are on here,could they confirm?
I don't wish to be rude. But that's the most absurd thing I've heard this week.
Well quite. I have spoken to someone with contacts in the City who thinks the exact opposite, and points to the remarkable stability of Sterling as evidence for that.
Just got our postal votes, who to blame SSDC or Correos. May get back by international special delivery but only an outside chance. Just as well David Laws is not depending on us
There will be a second election by Christmas if David Cameron or Ed Miliband attempt to go it alone with a "messy and unstable" minority administration, Nick Clegg has warned. The Liberal Democrat leader said a minority government, relying on the support of either UKIP or the SNP, would be chaotic and the two main party leaders should not put their own interests ahead of those of the British people."
More gaiety for the nation - she sounds most colourful
'Female Walter Mitty' Labour candidate who has rubbed shoulders with Ed Miliband is jailed for £120,000 festival tickets fraud
Charmaine Bowers, 23, tricked more than 300 people into paying out up to £500 each for bogus tickets to the Tomorrowland Music Festival in Belgium Her mother Tina, 51, 'facilitated' fraud with cash paid into her bank account Bowers was due to stand in local elections on Thursday and met Labour leader Ed Miliband last month She has been jailed for two years and three months after admitting six counts of fraud by false representation
There will be a second election by Christmas if David Cameron or Ed Miliband attempt to go it alone with a "messy and unstable" minority administration, Nick Clegg has warned. The Liberal Democrat leader said a minority government, relying on the support of either UKIP or the SNP, would be chaotic and the two main party leaders should not put their own interests ahead of those of the British people."
Only because Ashcroft has spent an enormous sum of money on his polling and if it turns out not to be all that accurate we might never see the like again.
Lucy Powell has made a massive idiot of herself, but this site is beyond obsessed with EdStone in a way, that I doubt your average voter is.
I've no doubt - it's the only funny thing to happen in the campaign to date, so we're grasping at it from left and right. I'm still predicting a Lab plurality, but it was a very silly idea, and Powell has been terrible every time I see her. Genuinely, and not in a 'I don't like what she said' sort of way.
Though the fun may be short lived for Tories if the next poll interrupts the narrative by being ok or even good for Labour
This election is weird. I honestly can't remember a time when people couldn't have given less of a sh*t than they do now. No excitement, no passion, no anticipation.. In my office, people are calmly talking about their diaries on Friday, and their plans for the weekend, without even mentioning it. It is truly "meh".
Yes this is not the case in Scotland. It is truly weird.
What Clegg doesn't realise is that there's a very good chance that they'll be a second election regardless of whether the LDs a are apart of government or not.
I am told by my friend who is a financial analyst in the city that the markets expect Miliband to be PM and have done so for weeks but the press don't want to report this.If any financial analysts are on here,could they confirm?
How can you hide the markets - they are on display every day? Neither FTSE nor £ look especially negative to me.
I am a financial analyst and the answer to the original question is No - there is no consensus as to what will happen bar nobody knows.
Only because Ashcroft has spent an enormous sum of money on his polling and if it turns out not to be all that accurate we might never see the like again.
Might be good not have in future. Too much info out there will depress prices.
Big Jim Murphy has played a blinder this week with the Nasty Nats. 12 more months and it should pay off in the Holyrood elections.
He's following the Crosby "turn em radioactive" strategy which has thwarted Ukips plans to have more than 3 seats.
I think there is a much darker underbelly to Unionism than Separatism, eventually in the interests of fair reporting the MSM may well get round to reporting on it during the next 12 months. The more seats SNP win the greater the risk that the Unionist underbelly rears it's head again like it did in George Square after the referendum.
Lucy Powell has made a massive idiot of herself, but this site is beyond obsessed with EdStone in a way, that I doubt your average voter is.
I've no doubt - it's the only funny thing to happen in the campaign to date, so we're grasping at it from left and right. I'm still predicting a Lab plurality, but it was a very silly idea, and Powell has been terrible every time I see her. Genuinely, and not in a 'I don't like what she said' sort of way.
Though the fun may be short lived for Tories if the next poll interrupts the narrative by being ok or even good for Labour
It's Ashcroft, and so far polls which have the methodology of reallocating DKs have been good for the Tories, so I imagine this place's happiness index will increase by 150%. You're right that Powell is dire though. Only Miliband would have her as an ''adviser'' of things....
Tim Montgomerie ن (@montie) 05/05/2015 15:33 £100 from @TheSunNewspaper for stories about how the Tories have helped you!!! Via @peterjukes pic.twitter.com/Y360sYy2KA
Only because Ashcroft has spent an enormous sum of money on his polling and if it turns out not to be all that accurate we might never see the like again.
1 Question - name the candidates. That is all.
You can do it unnamed before they're known but after - simply name them.
Hullo all. Just over 2 hours until my last forecast for UKIP and others in the election is published.
Travelled around Hampstead and Camden Town this morning and the absence of posters and billboards is striking. I saw one window in Camden displaying a vote Labour poster; just one in miles of streets in this Labour London heartland. Uncanny! It's as if people have decided to vote - if at all - in silence.
Interesting you suggest it was all concocted by Mr Murphy, too.
I predict if Labour beat the polls it will be in Scotland.
Murphy is now campaigning for 2016 - and toxication of the Nats is the first prong of his fork, prong 2 is to pour on the blame for all the shortcomings of the Holyrood govt.
This election is weird. I honestly can't remember a time when people couldn't have given less of a sh*t than they do now. No excitement, no passion, no anticipation.. In my office, people are calmly talking about their diaries on Friday, and their plans for the weekend, without even mentioning it. It is truly "meh".
Yes this is not the case in Scotland. It is truly weird.
It's because bar the SNP all the other political campaigns have been awful, and very negative. Most people don't want to be scared into voting against something - they want something to vote for.
Tim Montgomerie ن (@montie) 05/05/2015 15:33 £100 from @TheSunNewspaper for stories about how the Tories have helped you!!! Via @peterjukes pic.twitter.com/Y360sYy2KA
@steve_hawkes: SNP has now suspended two people caught up in yesterday's scuffle with Jim Murphy... Sturgeon holds to line that nothing to do with them
Laura Bicker @BBCLBicker 9m9 minutes ago A second SNP member, James Scott, now suspended pending investigation after protest which interrupted Labour's rally in Glasgow yesterday.
Here's the link to yesterday's Statesman article suggesting a wobble coming from the results of Labour's own polling: http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/05/are-ashcroft-polls-wrong ... "But the problem for Labour is if their own data is right, it looks increasingly likely that not only will Clegg survive in Sheffield Hallam, but he will return to government as David Cameron’s deputy once again. " ..
Comments
Vote Clegg = Get another ConDem coalition.
@CCHQPress: .@labourpress really don't use Lucy Powell enough for broadcast
It was pointed out that no-one had presented any evidence that they were members.
We now know Doughty Brown was. We can also infer - as Clerkin is known - that Clerkin is not a member of the SNP (have read he left in 2007 a couple of times but never with a reference).
The Tate Modern should purchase it and instal it in the urinals where it would quickly become a landmark and much visited exhibit.
Dave truly is a lucky general
I wasn't wearing a rosette or clutching a placard though. That would have been quite inappropriate.
Sheesh, I've turned into SeanT
"Ed said that the stone would symbolise his commitment to keep his pledges and rebuild trust in British politics, a bit like Rory the Tory’s big pile of chucky stanes which was supposed to symbolise the eternal union between our two blesséd countries and which promptly vanished as soon as the independence referendum was out of the way. We can trust that Ed’s big stane will be equally irrelevant and impermanent, and within a week of the election it will be tied around the feet of the party’s Scottish strategists as they are tossed off the Labour boat as the recriminations get into full swing. [...]
Possibly the big stick of Edhenge rock is intended to be one of the obelisks from 2001, and its mere presence will impart sentience upon the rock bangers and head bangers surrounding it who will rapidly evolve into self aware beings. It will certainly raise the average IQ of the advisors who thought it was a good idea.
But it’s far too late for Labour to evolve into intelligent life, and Labour self-awareness died the day that they elected Tony Blair as party leader. On the eve of an election – they commission a tombstone. That’s the only symbolism that people will take from this latest idiocy."
http://www.pinknews.co.uk/2015/04/16/are-anti-gay-campaigners-accidentally-helping-caroline-lucas-to-get-re-elected/
1. Sheffield Hallam poll throwing up doubts on the good lords marginal polling
2. Article in New statesman saying Labour top knobs don't believe the Ashcroft Marginals polling (believe they are in much worse position)
3. Article in Labour Uncut about the postal vote not holding up 36% down on last election, yeh I know its all meant to be secret.
I have to say the narrative of this election seems to have been largely driven by Ashcroft polling if that's up the Swanee, then anything is possible, Tory majority anyone ?
@LibDems: It seems Lucy Powell has made some changes to #EdStone... http://t.co/V6CqMQDXHv
Asking someone to provide evidence of claims is quite different to saying the claim is wrong. Ironically, I'm the only person to actually provide evidence of a link between Clerkin and the SNP (he was a member in 2003 and a paper candidate in a now defunct ward well outside his residential area).
I understand the fear dyed in the wool Ulster Unionists like yourself have regarding the SNP but it's really none of your business how Scotland runs.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dDRiT1FSRTF2bjVYRThSTnRaNzFXMlE#gid=0
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/05/robert-webb-ed-miliband-might-not-be-kind-leader-you-put-t-shirt-he-still-needs-my
Jesus.
Love your work you mad, bonkers eejit, ya.
The BES data about Labour's diminishing, ethnic minority advantage is also something to watch for.
If that's accurate, it will probably materialise in the more affluent London suburbs rather than Labour's inner-city core.
There will be a second election by Christmas if David Cameron or Ed Miliband attempt to go it alone with a "messy and unstable" minority administration, Nick Clegg has warned. The Liberal Democrat leader said a minority government, relying on the support of either UKIP or the SNP, would be chaotic and the two main party leaders should not put their own interests ahead of those of the British people."
http://news.sky.com/story/1478057/clegg-warns-of-second-election-by-christmas
http://wingsoverscotland.com/waiting-for-nicola/#more-70888
Will be interesting to see whether any of the MSM pick up on this.
He's following the Crosby "turn em radioactive" strategy which has thwarted Ukips plans to have more than 3 seats.
Though the fun may be short lived for Tories if the next poll interrupts the narrative by being ok or even good for Labour
Interesting you suggest it was all concocted by Mr Murphy, too.
Yes this is not the case in Scotland. It is truly weird.
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/594835246866157570
Tim Montgomerie ن (@montie)
05/05/2015 15:33
£100 from @TheSunNewspaper for stories about how the Tories have helped you!!! Via @peterjukes pic.twitter.com/Y360sYy2KA
You can do it unnamed before they're known but after - simply name them.
Travelled around Hampstead and Camden Town this morning and the absence of posters and billboards is striking. I saw one window in Camden displaying a vote Labour poster; just one in miles of streets in this Labour London heartland. Uncanny! It's as if people have decided to vote - if at all - in silence.
Murphy is now campaigning for 2016 - and toxication of the Nats is the first prong of his fork, prong 2 is to pour on the blame for all the shortcomings of the Holyrood govt.
Douglas Carswell (@DouglasCarswell)
05/05/2015 15:54
Out and about with Nigel in Thanet ..... Good response from local folk pic.twitter.com/T7M1YXpy0u
Laura Bicker @BBCLBicker 9m9 minutes ago
A second SNP member, James Scott, now suspended pending investigation after protest which interrupted Labour's rally in Glasgow yesterday.
This is it.
8 retweets 1 favorite
Reply Retweet8 Favorite1 Follow
"But the problem for Labour is if their own data is right, it looks increasingly likely that not only will Clegg survive in Sheffield Hallam, but he will return to government as David Cameron’s deputy once again. " ..