We know that UKIP won't score enough votes by themselves to win seats without local or tactical votes, they need more that 16% on the national polls to do that.
And Tories don't vote tactically apart for Blairites, so probably no UKIP gains from Labour, even if it means Labour gets most seats. And Labour voters will vote Tory to keep UKIP out, even if that means Tories might get more seats than Labour.
3 seats it is, apart from a surprise if LordA has made a mistake or in a seat that hasn't been polled.
It's Alliance disease, I'm afraid. Come 2020, UKIP's votes will be more efficiently distributed.
3 seats with 13% is piss poor, but much better than the 1 seat with 16% needed until last year.
There's a promoted tweet by the Mirror comparing famous backers of Labour and the Tories. Apparently we are supposed to be more impressed by the Labour one. Judge for yourselves:
Lab
Ronnie O'Sullivan, Delia, JK Rowling, Eddie Izzard, Jo Brand, Russell Brand (!), Martin freeman, Paul O'Grady, Ian McKellen, Daniel radcliffe
Con
Murdoch, Karen Brady, Gary Barlow, Andrew Lloyd Webber, Katie Hopkins
OK Hopkins is a dreadful specimen, but otherwise it's 2 luvvies vs 7 (yawn), leaving a snooker player, a chef and a children's author vs 2 highly successful business people.
is that the best they can do? It's clearly portrayed as a no-brained slam-dunk win for Labour.
Er... not for me
LOL....The actual list for both includes more names, but those are both pretty piss poor lists really.
It seems more "on-vogue" to be a former Labour supporting celeb who now rips it out of both sides e.g. Ant & Dec, Noel Gallagher, Cheryl Fernandez-Versini.
Lib dems briefing privately that they are confident abt Carshalton and Wallington and Kingston but a tad concerned about Sutton and Cheam and very concerned about Twickenham... Boris just completed his fourth visit of the campaign to Sutton and Cheam..
Well that lot broadly matches my betting positions, but err best of luck to Burstow and good riddance Vince ta very much.
The images from Glasgow of the Nationalist activists are actually quite sad. I went to university in Scotland (Edinburgh) and back then it seemed a far more outward looking place.
From recent visits it seems to have turned inwards become preoccupied with its own national identity, saltires flying everywhere ect. I heard Sturgeon on Radio 2 earlier and they played the proclaimers because its her favourite song apparently, such an obvious and boring choice. I imagine if they'd have asked what her favourite soft drink was she'd have inevitably said Irn-Bru aswell.
Maybe its just me but a country that has to shout about its patriotism doesn't strike me as one that is at ease with itself.
IMHO both Labour and SNP politicians are partly responsible for this, playing up victimisation of the Scots for their own political gain. As a Labour voter I'm saddened to say that.
AllyPally Rob, silly question but do you live by Ally Pally is that in the Wood Green and Hornsey Marginal ? if so what do you think ?
Yes indeed, I'm in Muswell Hill. A month ago I'd have said nailed on LAB Gain, but around my area there's Lynne Fetherstone posters and Boards outnumbering Labour one's 3-1 I'd say.
It'll come down to 500 votes either way I'd guess. LAB have to get their vote in Wood Green and 'down the hill' out, because i don't think the Champagne Lefty's have deserted Fetherstone as I thought they would. Also depends what the Tory vote does in areas like Highgate.
I am tempted to have a flutter on Featherstone, I have gut feeling she will hold on. And Wood Green and Hornsey is now an outpost of eastern europe I suspect most not registered to vote. Spent much of my mis-spent youth getting rat ars*d in the pubs of Hornsey and Muswell hill, ahhh happy days.
The images from Glasgow of the Nationalist activists are actually quite sad. I went to university in Scotland (Edinburgh) and back then it seemed a far more outward looking place.
From recent visits it seems to have turned inwards become preoccupied with its own national identity, saltires flying everywhere ect. I heard Sturgeon on Radio 2 earlier and they played the proclaimers because its her favourite song apparently, such an obvious and boring choice. I imagine if they'd have asked what her favourite soft drink was she'd have inevitably said Irn-Bru aswell.
Maybe its just me but a country that has to shout about its patriotism doesn't strike me as one that is at ease with itself.
IMHO both Labour and SNP politicians are partly responsible for this, playing up victimisation of the Scots for their own political gain. As a Labour voter I'm saddened to say that.
AllyPally Rob, silly question but do you live by Ally Pally is that in the Wood Green and Hornsey Marginal ? if so what do you think ?
Yes indeed, I'm in Muswell Hill. A month ago I'd have said nailed on LAB Gain, but around my area there's Lynne Fetherstone posters and Boards outnumbering Labour one's 3-1 I'd say.
It'll come down to 500 votes either way I'd guess. LAB have to get their vote in Wood Green and 'down the hill' out, because i don't think the Champagne Lefty's have deserted Fetherstone as I thought they would. Also depends what the Tory vote does in areas like Highgate.
I know a few of the Labour folk in the next door constituency. They have been out canvassing there and they report a lot of Tories are switching to Fetherstone.
THE Scottish National Party is to develop its own flag and a special salute for party members.
Julian Cook, professor of politics at Edinburgh University, said: “A nationalist movement dominating its society in every way. Who in their right mind does not think that’s a brilliant idea?”
Lib dems briefing privately that they are confident abt Carshalton and Wallington and Kingston but a tad concerned about Sutton and Cheam and very concerned about Twickenham... Boris just completed his fourth visit of the campaign to Sutton and Cheam..
Well that lot broadly matches my betting positions, but err best of luck to Burstow and good riddance Vince ta very much.
If Tories can't form a government by the slimmest of margins, and Labour form a government that looks unable to survive for long, is Cameron still out as Tory leader? Or could he hang on if people think there'll be another election in several months to a year? It seems a narrowly defeated Cameron would still be a better Tory option going into a potential snap election than some untested replacement.
I think he'll walk. I am almost always wrong, though.
I think he'll walk before he's knifed - in the event of the Tories failing to win again, even with a coalition agreement of somekind, the recalcitrants in his party will rise up and with a defeat on his shoulders, even if he is leader of the largest party, I don't think he'll manage to stave it off.
New Tory leader betting markets soon the place to be.
Shockingly biased interview from the BBC. Instead of discussing tactical voting they ambushed the poor bloke. Heseltine is a real piece of work. Openly insulting someone to their face like that is quite disgusting. He really is several decades past his sell by date.
The images from Glasgow of the Nationalist activists are actually quite sad. I went to university in Scotland (Edinburgh) and back then it seemed a far more outward looking place.
From recent visits it seems to have turned inwards become preoccupied with its own national identity, saltires flying everywhere ect. I heard Sturgeon on Radio 2 earlier and they played the proclaimers because its her favourite song apparently, such an obvious and boring choice. I imagine if they'd have asked what her favourite soft drink was she'd have inevitably said Irn-Bru aswell.
Maybe its just me but a country that has to shout about its patriotism doesn't strike me as one that is at ease with itself.
IMHO both Labour and SNP politicians are partly responsible for this, playing up victimisation of the Scots for their own political gain. As a Labour voter I'm saddened to say that.
Only a few months ago Labour, SNP , L/Dems and Tory PBers were quite happy to have Nigel Farage attacked by the rent-a-mob in Glasgow, and many were quite gleeful. How does it feel now that the boots on the other foot and these thugs are attacking Labour and will probably attack Tories in the future too?
In Glasgow?!
Can you provide a reference for that incident, please? I wonder if you have got the city, the parties, and the 'attack' wrong. Edit: if you recall it as being in a pub then please say so as that fixes it nicely.
It happened in the EU election last year and was widely published because - laughably - Farage was forced into a pub for protection.
Ah, thanks. That fixes it - it was the one in the Royal Mile in Edinburgh. IIRC it was a leftie demo and the two who were arrested were either Labour and/or fron south of the border. Nothing to do with the SNP, though many tried to claim that they orchestrated it.
If you bother to read Mike's comment you will see he did not claim it was the SNP doing the attack. What he said was that it was the SNP supporters on here along with Labour, Lib Dem and Tory supporters who were quite happy to see Farage attacked. In that assertion he is absolutely correct.
Huckabee answers the (higher) call and enters the race for the GOP nomination. He wont win but he may stop others from winning.
We know that for months. The GOP will have 20 candidates for the nomination, about 5 moderates, 3 Tea Partiers, 3 social conservatives, and I lost count on Donald Trump and that woman from California, plus another 5.
They've put yesterdays pseudo-False Flag back in the news.
Looks like Murphy has found the SNP's Achilles heel ..
It's hardly an achilles heal but its being blown out of proportion by a compliant media and now the SNP are both justifying the Faux Outrage from Murphy. On top of that they have propelled Murphy's bullshit back into the headlines.
Scott and Doughty Brown have done NOTHING wrong other than be associated with Clerkin (which is stupid). If they were going to act they should have warned them earlier or expelled them earlier or done nothing till after the election.
What the SNP are doing is EXACTLY the same as Lucy Powell's ridiculous twitter ranging earlier today. Only it's worse because its not an individual it's the party as a whole acting like a headless chicken.
I'm afraid that you have opened Pandora's box - the loons were encouraged and can't be turned off like a tap.
Shockingly biased interview from the BBC. Instead of discussing tactical voting they ambushed the poor bloke. Heseltine is a real piece of work. Openly insulting someone to their face like that is quite disgusting. He really is several decades past his sell by date.
The images from Glasgow of the Nationalist activists are actually quite sad. I went to university in Scotland (Edinburgh) and back then it seemed a far more outward looking place.
From recent visits it seems to have turned inwards become preoccupied with its own national identity, saltires flying everywhere ect. I heard Sturgeon on Radio 2 earlier and they played the proclaimers because its her favourite song apparently, such an obvious and boring choice. I imagine if they'd have asked what her favourite soft drink was she'd have inevitably said Irn-Bru aswell.
Maybe its just me but a country that has to shout about its patriotism doesn't strike me as one that is at ease with itself.
IMHO both Labour and SNP politicians are partly responsible for this, playing up victimisation of the Scots for their own political gain. As a Labour voter I'm saddened to say that.
There is a big and significant difference between patriotism and nationalism.
Will the SNP thugs cost them votes?Price of hubris.
Like Marie Rimmer, shortly due in court for an alleged assault during the First Indyref campaign?
I did post a couple of days ago that the atmosphere in Scotland was becoming rather intimidatory for Other political views to be expressed.Rather expected this sort of event to happen given the buildup
How do you know it's getting intimidatory?
Thrugh the media, all of which is anti-SNP except for one daily (perhaps two) and one Sunday, both Scottish?
I reported the conversation with two Scottish Labour activists whad come down to London.
Hmm. Not exactly neutral observers.
I'm beginning to sense that these claims stem rather from a panic that they are losing their control over their public - and that it is an easier excuse than looking into the other reasons. Have a look at that video report by Dan Hoggett (sp?) in the Guardian recently, on Coatbridge.
It is bad enough with the halfwitted jessies on here flapping about like headless chickens. Imagine how scary it must be to have 3 people shouting at your political rally when you only have 40 or 50 of your supporters there to drown them out.
THE Scottish National Party is to develop its own flag and a special salute for party members.
Julian Cook, professor of politics at Edinburgh University, said: “A nationalist movement dominating its society in every way. Who in their right mind does not think that’s a brilliant idea?”
Lib dems briefing privately that they are confident abt Carshalton and Wallington and Kingston but a tad concerned about Sutton and Cheam and very concerned about Twickenham... Boris just completed his fourth visit of the campaign to Sutton and Cheam..
Well that lot broadly matches my betting positions, but err best of luck to Burstow and good riddance Vince ta very much.
Well, they may be correct. Tories have put a huge amount into Sutton/Cheam, Twickers and Kingston. I'm spending lots of time in Carshalton/Wall only because old home town. They will all be close but I cannot see how blues can't win Sutton/Cheam.
Greens are undermining LDs in Carshalton big time about an incinerator. Let's see.
The Lib Dems have just revealed a secret campaigning tool called Project Manatee ( It's a version of an Obama tool called Project Narwhal). All supporters and potential supporters will get a message on Facebook tailored to their views and issues. Interesting to see if it works.
There's little political freedom and the one child policy is going to mean a relative labour shortage, raising wages, and then creating a situation akin to our baby boomer pension problem [but writ large].
They've just about ended the one child policy. The last rules will be gone in a few years.
China still faces demog problems, but I don't think they will seriously hurt the economy for another 20-40 years. And there's always the chance they will start manufacturing babies. Literally.
It's hugely difficult to turn round a birthrate that's plummeted.
Russia has.
An impressive feat if true.
It is true, and it confirms my suspicions that the birth rate is strongly correlated with condoms (social-religious factors) , urbanization and income (quality of life).
We know that UKIP won't score enough votes by themselves to win seats without local or tactical votes, they need more that 16% on the national polls to do that.
And Tories don't vote tactically apart for Blairites, so probably no UKIP gains from Labour, even if it means Labour gets most seats. And Labour voters will vote Tory to keep UKIP out, even if that means Tories might get more seats than Labour.
3 seats it is, apart from a surprise if LordA has made a mistake or in a seat that hasn't been polled.
Thanet, Clacton, Thurrock I assume. Plus Boston and Skegness?
Comments
Spent much of my mis-spent youth getting rat ars*d in the pubs of Hornsey and Muswell hill, ahhh happy days.
Heil Salmond and swastikas it seems is the SNP plan.
No surprise to me, I always said the SNP is a fascist movement.
We ought to make an Allo Allo! version for scotland.
New Tory leader betting markets soon the place to be.
https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/595566315647148033
The GOP will have 20 candidates for the nomination, about 5 moderates, 3 Tea Partiers, 3 social conservatives, and I lost count on Donald Trump and that woman from California, plus another 5.
Dave drifting like a barge!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lqovTGjYjM4
Con most seats out from 1.2 to 1.22
Scott is not too bright
Greens are undermining LDs in Carshalton big time about an incinerator. Let's see.
Mystic Dan declaring Dave as winner excellent news for Ed
Plus Boston and Skegness?
Also Lucy Powell saying promises may be broken.