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  • NoEasyDay
    NoEasyDay Posts: 454
    Pulpstar said:

    OblitusSumMe said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Anyone else nervous about The Ashcroft?

    Only because Ashcroft has spent an enormous sum of money on his polling and if it turns out not to be all that accurate we might never see the like again.
    1 Question - name the candidates. That is all.

    You can do it unnamed before they're known but after - simply name them.
    Jeesus do you really think people know the candidates. Naming them would just confuse the f*ck out of people. I would guess 99% of people don't even know the name of their MP or their constituency.
  • Tissue_Price
    Tissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Lord Ashcroft ‏@LordAshcroft

    Ashcroft National Poll, 1-3 May: CON 32%, LAB 30%, LDEM 11%, UKIP 12%, GRN 7%. Details (and focus group report) on @ConHome, 4pm.
  • kjohnw
    kjohnw Posts: 1,456
    Scott_P said:

    @Aidan_Kerr1: Unfortunately for the SNP Comms team photographers snapped James Scott giving Brown a torrent of abuse this afternoon.

    will it change many votes - doubt it
  • Prodicus
    Prodicus Posts: 658
    Tour de force analysis at Open Democracy. Make a cuppa - it's a meaty 10 minute read. His conclusion's in the URL but never mind that - he has many chunky points of significant (imo) detail on, e.g., McVey et al implications. Much of it is familiar ground for PB-ers but there's something juicy for everyone (except Ed.) Inter alia: 'Labour PLP do not want office right now even if Ed does.' (Wild paraphrase by me.)

    https://www.opendemocracy.net/ourkingdom/shaun-lawson/polls-and-most-of-forecasts-are-wrong-ed-miliband-will-not-be-next-prime-min
  • MonikerDiCanio
    MonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Scott_P said:

    @steve_hawkes: SNP has now suspended two people caught up in yesterday's scuffle with Jim Murphy... Sturgeon holds to line that nothing to do with them

    Never two without three.
    The third Nat activist/ street thug will be out soon.
  • Bob__Sykes
    Bob__Sykes Posts: 1,179
    Tykejohnno said:

    SeanT said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    Cameron favourite again.

    Who is this being driven by though - people who've had peeks at postals, CCHQ trying to rig the markets, shrewdies, mugs or what :) ?
    Labour have been flailing since EdStone, if not before. They're palpably losing the last week of the campaign. Perhaps it is that?
    Just seen Cameron speech in st Ives and other speeches in Cornwall,the guy genuinely seems to love the place,is Cameron the most pro Cornwall PM. ;-)
    I suspect he'll have plenty of time for an extended break there this summer.

    I guess, though, that post-No 10, Dave may not feel so inclined to holiday in the West Country or profess to supporting Weston Villaham.....
  • TGOHF
    TGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Scott_P said:

    @steve_hawkes: SNP has now suspended two people caught up in yesterday's scuffle with Jim Murphy... Sturgeon holds to line that nothing to do with them

    Deja vu - just like the Cons haven't targeted Farage, Lab now see that Saint Nicola is beyond reproach - so go after the activists and the fringites - toxify the party one by one until the mud sticks.

    Of course to work, the nutters have to be there - and just like Ukip they are ..
  • TGOHF
    TGOHF Posts: 21,633
    LA has greens on 7%....

  • Ishmael_X
    Ishmael_X Posts: 3,664
    meh
  • NickPalmer
    NickPalmer Posts: 21,724
    Converging to the mean with Ashcroft, like the others.
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    That is not a good poll for the Tories.
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Welcome to pb.com, Mr. Sagesse.

    I don't buy the Ashcroft poll. Seven points for the Greens is too high, and I don't think the two major parties will, combined, score that low a share of the vote.
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    Dave can't win here...

    @MSmithsonPB: LAB lead down from 6 to 2 in final Ashcroft poll

    Might want to check that Mike
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    NoEasyDay said:

    Pulpstar said:

    OblitusSumMe said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Anyone else nervous about The Ashcroft?

    Only because Ashcroft has spent an enormous sum of money on his polling and if it turns out not to be all that accurate we might never see the like again.
    1 Question - name the candidates. That is all.

    You can do it unnamed before they're known but after - simply name them.
    Jeesus do you really think people know the candidates. Naming them would just confuse the f*ck out of people. I would guess 99% of people don't even know the name of their MP or their constituency.
    If it makes no difference in 97% of cases, it makes no difference. But the 3% may well count.
  • Stereotomy
    Stereotomy Posts: 4,092
    Tissue_Price said:

    Lord Ashcroft ‏@LordAshcroft

    Ashcroft National Poll, 1-3 May: CON 32%, LAB 30%, LDEM 11%, UKIP 12%, GRN 7%. Details (and focus group report) on @ConHome, 4pm.

    Is this an EICIPM result?
  • Dair
    Dair Posts: 6,108
    SouthamObserver said:

    That's two SNP members suspended after SLab's haranguing of Murphy and Izzard yesterday. I blame MI5.

    Seems second person was at a protest against Brown today and not involved yesterday. Some press getting confused so I guess that's why you're making the mistake.
  • Slackbladder
    Slackbladder Posts: 9,800
    Seems a bit more reasonable... but i think both Con and lab too low.
  • SouthamObserver
    SouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    The LibDems seem to be getting better scores (relatively) in just about every poll now.
  • compouter2
    compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    Stereotomy said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    Lord Ashcroft ‏@LordAshcroft

    Ashcroft National Poll, 1-3 May: CON 32%, LAB 30%, LDEM 11%, UKIP 12%, GRN 7%. Details (and focus group report) on @ConHome, 4pm.

    Is this an EICIPM result?
    Oh aye!
  • Artist
    Artist Posts: 1,893
    edited May 2015
    With those figures Ashcroft will either be top or bottom in terms of accuracy when compared with the result.
  • BenM
    BenM Posts: 1,795
    Ashcroft bottles it!

    Greens on 7? Nah.

    EICIPM.
  • The_Apocalypse
    The_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    edited May 2015
    Ishmael_X said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    I'm going for a 6 point Tory lead, and many Con majority, or Con 300+ seats 'on' posts.

    I'm predicting expectation management on a vast scale.
    Well, you did say that YG translated into a five point Tory lead in real terms - I'd call that expectation management ;-)
  • Polruan
    Polruan Posts: 2,083
    RodCrosby said:

    Polruan said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Lab majority 210 on BF...

    Leaving aside the obvious references to hell freezing over, what has to happen for Lab to hit the magic majority number? Assuming they retain 5 in Scotland and LD down to 20 (probably the best real world numbers they could hope for), what's the necessary swing from Tories in E&W to get there?
    about 6.5% ?
    So if the polls are understating Labour to the degree that the Tory 300+ brigade believe they are understanding the Tories, that would be a Labour majority, right?
  • steve_garner
    steve_garner Posts: 1,019
    Ashcroft a terrible poll for Tories and Labour. Does not quite smell right somehow though.
  • TGOHF
    TGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Dair said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    That's two SNP members suspended after SLab's haranguing of Murphy and Izzard yesterday. I blame MI5.

    Seems second person was at a protest against Brown today and not involved yesterday. Some press getting confused so I guess that's why you're making the mistake.
    The Channel 4 show "meet the cybernats" can only be 10 months away...

  • Bob__Sykes
    Bob__Sykes Posts: 1,179
    Tory-Lab combined score of 62% is not going to happen. Greens on 7% - I'd like it were it true, but I'm not buying Ashcroft.

    Would be seismic if those were the actual shares!
  • murali_s
    murali_s Posts: 3,084
    BenM said:

    Ashcroft bottles it!

    Greens on 7? Nah.

    EICIPM.

    Greens will poll 3-4%. Add 2-3% to Labour score.

    EICIPM!
  • Plato
    Plato Posts: 15,724
    Sherlock Holmes called it an Idee Fixe.
    Scott_P said:

    Dave can't win here...

    @MSmithsonPB: LAB lead down from 6 to 2 in final Ashcroft poll

    Might want to check that Mike

  • currystar
    currystar Posts: 1,171
    Ashcroft has produced one of his silly polls for his last one.
  • Razedabode
    Razedabode Posts: 3,117
    Stereotomy said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    Lord Ashcroft ‏@LordAshcroft

    Ashcroft National Poll, 1-3 May: CON 32%, LAB 30%, LDEM 11%, UKIP 12%, GRN 7%. Details (and focus group report) on @ConHome, 4pm.

    Is this an EICIPM result?
    Perhaps, although a 1% increase on 2010 isn't exactly a resounding endorsement
  • SMukesh
    SMukesh Posts: 1,759
    Well,well,well...that's after 100% reallocation of don't knows unlike ICM which is 50%.

  • NoEasyDay
    NoEasyDay Posts: 454
    Pulpstar said:

    NoEasyDay said:

    Pulpstar said:

    OblitusSumMe said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Anyone else nervous about The Ashcroft?

    Only because Ashcroft has spent an enormous sum of money on his polling and if it turns out not to be all that accurate we might never see the like again.
    1 Question - name the candidates. That is all.

    You can do it unnamed before they're known but after - simply name them.
    Jeesus do you really think people know the candidates. Naming them would just confuse the f*ck out of people. I would guess 99% of people don't even know the name of their MP or their constituency.
    If it makes no difference in 97% of cases, it makes no difference. But the 3% may well count.
    I haven't done statistics for a long while BUT what do you think the odds of getting a fair representation of those 3% is in a single poll.
  • Neil
    Neil Posts: 7,983
    edited May 2015
    Scott_P said:

    @Aidan_Kerr1: Unfortunately for the SNP Comms team photographers snapped James Scott giving Brown a torrent of abuse this afternoon.

    Let's wait for the invitation from Brown to the protester to emerge so we can lay the blame for this where it properly belongs.
  • Sean_F
    Sean_F Posts: 39,132
    32/30 seems a bit low for both Conservative and Labour.
  • The_Apocalypse
    The_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Be interesting to see if ICM follow this trend tomorrow. So far it looks like the parties are actually becoming more deadlocked, rather than any kind of surge. But still, there's time for late Tory surge (because of EdStone after all).
  • surbiton
    surbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited May 2015
    Scott_P said:

    Dave can't win here...

    @MSmithsonPB: LAB lead down from 6 to 2 in final Ashcroft poll

    Might want to check that Mike

    CON Lead down from 6% to 2% surely. EICIPM.

    One thing I tell you, none of the pollsters or punters know if any degree of certainty what the final percentage spread will be or, indeed, the seats translation from that.

    Scotland is ironically easier. It's in England where UKIP has created mayhem. No one really knows what the vote distribution in each seat will be as there is no similar legacy history.

    Pollsters, if they believe in prayers, are doing exactly that hoping the music stops at them.
  • Slackbladder
    Slackbladder Posts: 9,800
    murali_s said:

    BenM said:

    Ashcroft bottles it!

    Greens on 7? Nah.

    EICIPM.

    Greens will poll 3-4%. Add 2-3% to Labour score.

    EICIPM!
    ummm. I'm not sure it works that way...
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    SMukesh said:

    Well,well,well...that's after 100% reallocation of don't knows unlike ICM which is 50%.

    No it isn't.
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,080
    You see - Phone poll once again more favourable to Tories than to Labour :)
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    @LadPolitics: Could Alex Salmond be in trouble? One Aberdonian has just had £3,000 on the Lib Dems to win Gordon at 5/1. Latest odds
    1/6 #snp
    7/2 #libdems
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    Neil said:

    Let's wait for the invitation from Brown to the protester to emerge so can lay the blame for this where it properly belongs.

    Arf
  • Plato
    Plato Posts: 15,724
    DKs may be interesting - Greens on 7% also feels odd.
    Sean_F said:

    32/30 seems a bit low for both Conservative and Labour.

  • Moses_
    Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    edited May 2015
    Test
  • Lestuh
    Lestuh Posts: 50
    Close to LibDem Ukip crossover in LA.

    Which I am praying for.
  • OblitusSumMe
    OblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    murali_s said:

    BenM said:

    Ashcroft bottles it!

    Greens on 7? Nah.

    EICIPM.

    Greens will poll 3-4%. Add 2-3% to Labour score.

    EICIPM!
    The Greens are on 17% with 18-24 year olds. This is the demographic that told the pollsters they would vote Lib Dem in 2010 and largely didn't bother. They won't turn up to vote, for the Green Party or otherwise, so though I agree that the Green Party score should be knocked down a bit, Labour will not see the advantage to them.
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    Ashcroft's focus group reports read as terribly depressing, but also very true.

    What an awful and defunct political system and choice we in the UK now have.
  • SandyRentool
    SandyRentool Posts: 23,156
    SouthamObserver said:

    The LibDems seem to be getting better scores (relatively) in just about every poll now.

    "Clegg is Crap is Deputy Prime Minister"?
  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    Post Ashcroft SPUD

    This week (3 polls)
    Con -4
    Lab +1
    UKIP -1
    LD +4
    GREEN NC

    All Time (36 polls from 11 pollsters since April 20th)
    Con -2
    Lab -13
    UKIP +4
    LD+1
    GREEN +1

  • JamesM
    JamesM Posts: 221
    Afternoon all. Our work prediction league is coming to an end and I just put in what I think will be my final prediction.

    Conservatives - (37%) - 304
    Labour - (32%) - 250
    Lib Dem - (10%) - 24
    UKIP - (12%) - 3
    Green - (4%) - 1
    SNP - 46
    Others - 19 (NI + Galloway)
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    NoEasyDay said:

    Pulpstar said:

    NoEasyDay said:

    Pulpstar said:

    OblitusSumMe said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Anyone else nervous about The Ashcroft?

    Only because Ashcroft has spent an enormous sum of money on his polling and if it turns out not to be all that accurate we might never see the like again.
    1 Question - name the candidates. That is all.

    You can do it unnamed before they're known but after - simply name them.
    Jeesus do you really think people know the candidates. Naming them would just confuse the f*ck out of people. I would guess 99% of people don't even know the name of their MP or their constituency.
    If it makes no difference in 97% of cases, it makes no difference. But the 3% may well count.
    I haven't done statistics for a long while BUT what do you think the odds of getting a fair representation of those 3% is in a single poll.
    Sorry but the Sheffield Hallam result was clearly statistically different when you name the candidates. A single question naming the candidates with no prior questions, simply is the best approach.

    And only ICM has done it in Hallam. If any pollsters are listening it clearly is the best method.

    You vote for "Candidate ABC of XYZ Constituency" at the polling booth, not an individual candidate or an individual party.

  • MikeK
    MikeK Posts: 9,053
    BenM said:

    Ashcroft bottles it!

    Greens on 7? Nah.

    EICIPM.

    Are you saying that the lord makes it up as he goes along?
  • Mortimer
    Mortimer Posts: 14,229
    When is populus due, anyone?
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    Scott_P said:

    Dave can't win here...

    @MSmithsonPB: LAB lead down from 6 to 2 in final Ashcroft poll

    Might want to check that Mike

    Lol!
  • weejonnie
    weejonnie Posts: 3,820
    I must admit that even those papers coming out for Labour are sort of saying "Well I don't think much of them but I think I have to..." There just seems to be an overall feeling that they won't do it.
    Dair said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    RobD said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    I see the SNP have suspended one of those oh so polite chaps from yesterday

    Which one?
    This one

    http://bit.ly/1KJvQqN

    Obviously this is great news for the SNP and the cause of Scottish Independence
    First mistake they've made.

    It gives credence to the bogus pseudo-false flag operation McTernan ran yesterday. It keeps it in the news an extra day (probably only the Scottish news, we'll see),

    Utter stupidity.
    "This sort of aggressive nationalism should have no place in our election.

    "We've got a few days until we can kick David Cameron out of office, " Murphy.

    Anyone spot the hypocrisy?
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,080
    edited May 2015
    Plato said:

    DKs may be interesting - Greens on 7% also feels odd.

    Sean_F said:

    32/30 seems a bit low for both Conservative and Labour.

    Any odder than LDs on 11?

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/595570909743816705
  • botanically_speaking
    botanically_speaking Posts: 87
    Plato said:

    DKs may be interesting - Greens on 7% also feels odd.

    Sean_F said:

    32/30 seems a bit low for both Conservative and Labour.

    Polls badly overestimated NOTA Lib Dems in 2010.

    You can't get more NOTA than the Greens.

  • Tissue_Price
    Tissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Well regardless of the lead I'm a big buyer at 62 of the two-party share!
  • MonikerDiCanio
    MonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Scott_P said:

    @LadPolitics: Could Alex Salmond be in trouble? One Aberdonian has just had £3,000 on the Lib Dems to win Gordon at 5/1. Latest odds
    1/6 #snp
    7/2 #libdems

    And Aberdonians are very careful with their money..
    Eck's rejection would be a moment of exquisite bliss.
  • CD13
    CD13 Posts: 6,386

    Just been Yougov'ed again and asked about my vote. Still the same as last week.
  • TGOHF
    TGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Lestuh said:

    Close to LibDem Ukip crossover in LA.

    Which I am praying for.

    May collect on both my Kipper poster bets yet , sub 17% with Mike K and LD vs Kipper with isam.

  • NoEasyDay
    NoEasyDay Posts: 454
    Pulpstar said:

    NoEasyDay said:

    Pulpstar said:

    OblitusSumMe said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Anyone else nervous about The Ashcroft?

    Only because Ashcroft has spent an enormous sum of money on his polling and if it turns out not to be all that accurate we might never see the like again.
    1 Question - name the candidates. That is all.

    You can do it unnamed before they're known but after - simply name them.
    Jeesus do you really think people know the candidates. Naming them would just confuse the f*ck out of people. I would guess 99% of people don't even know the name of their MP or their constituency.
    If it makes no difference in 97% of cases, it makes no difference. But the 3% may well count.
    And that 3% (and I don't believe its that high) consists of the candidates, local activists, councillors 75% of the candidates wives, one or two of their kids. And the geeks that go on PB. None of which are going to change the way they vote any time soon.
  • Millsy
    Millsy Posts: 900
    The most interesting thing from Lord Ashcroft's focus group was about the possibility of Labour coming second and wanting to govern:

    One possible outcome is that Labour could form a government with the help of other parties, even if it comes second to the Conservatives in terms of both votes and seats. Most did not realise such an outcome was even possible, and many – including many who planned to vote Labour – were indignant at the idea: “They would have cheated their way in”; “It would be underhand. Not what the public wanted, not what the public said”; “It’s dealmongering, moving away from democracy”; “If that happened, at the next election, I’d think, what’s the point of voting?” Not everyone was exercised about it – but so many felt so strongly that it suggested such a government would have a job persuading the public of its political legitimacy, however constitutionally permissible it might be.

    Disaster if Miliband tries it
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    The only thing I might take from these polls is to back low turnout at <70%.

    With the choices so poor, and the outcome so uncertain with the media trumpeting that it'll be decided through post-election deals anyway, I think a lot of people simply won't bother voting.
  • Sean_F
    Sean_F Posts: 39,132
    Mortimer said:

    When is populus due, anyone?

    We've had it. Both Conservatives and Labour on 34%.
  • Stereotomy
    Stereotomy Posts: 4,092
    edited May 2015
    compouter2 said:

    Stereotomy said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    Lord Ashcroft ‏@LordAshcroft

    Ashcroft National Poll, 1-3 May: CON 32%, LAB 30%, LDEM 11%, UKIP 12%, GRN 7%. Details (and focus group report) on @ConHome, 4pm.

    Is this an EICIPM result?
    Oh aye!
    Accroding to electorial calculus (with scotland numbers from yougov giving SNP 54), it's only 278 lab - 273 con, so pretty close
  • murali_s
    murali_s Posts: 3,084
    Final Lord Ashcroft out of the way. What's next and when?
  • The_Apocalypse
    The_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    The Greens won't get 7% in an election. I think Labour may benefit somewhat, by about 1-2% but not more. The majority of the Green vote simply won't turn up, which is sad because I wish more people in my age group would go out and vote.
  • Daniel
    Daniel Posts: 160
    Survation and YouGov
  • Plato
    Plato Posts: 15,724
    edited May 2015
    I've no feel for how the LDs are going to do - their polling remains dire. I expected them to bob back to c15%. But that's simply a gut-reaction based on previous votes..
    botanically_speaking said:

    Plato said:

    DKs may be interesting - Greens on 7% also feels odd.

    Sean_F said:

    32/30 seems a bit low for both Conservative and Labour.

    Polls badly overestimated NOTA Lib Dems in 2010.

    You can't get more NOTA than the Greens.

  • Creidekki
    Creidekki Posts: 18
    Naff puntastic unauthorised posters competition - "Use your loaf - vote Baker" Just coming in to Ringmer (Lewes). As an aside - The tory candidate here must wish she was contesting Charles Hendry's old seat next door; that onerous task is given to a certain Nus Ghani.
  • Tykejohnno
    Tykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    isam said:

    Post Ashcroft SPUD

    This week (3 polls)
    Con -4
    Lab +1
    UKIP -1
    LD +4
    GREEN NC

    All Time (36 polls from 11 pollsters since April 20th)
    Con -2
    Lab -13
    UKIP +4
    LD+1
    GREEN +1

    Final week and your analysis shows polls going wrong way for the Tories.
  • NoEasyDay
    NoEasyDay Posts: 454
    Pulpstar said:

    NoEasyDay said:

    Pulpstar said:

    NoEasyDay said:

    Pulpstar said:

    OblitusSumMe said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Anyone else nervous about The Ashcroft?

    Only because Ashcroft has spent an enormous sum of money on his polling and if it turns out not to be all that accurate we might never see the like again.
    1 Question - name the candidates. That is all.

    You can do it unnamed before they're known but after - simply name them.
    Jeesus do you really think people know the candidates. Naming them would just confuse the f*ck out of people. I would guess 99% of people don't even know the name of their MP or their constituency.
    If it makes no difference in 97% of cases, it makes no difference. But the 3% may well count.
    I haven't done statistics for a long while BUT what do you think the odds of getting a fair representation of those 3% is in a single poll.
    Sorry but the Sheffield Hallam result was clearly statistically different when you name the candidates. A single question naming the candidates with no prior questions, simply is the best approach.

    And only ICM has done it in Hallam. If any pollsters are listening it clearly is the best method.

    You vote for "Candidate ABC of XYZ Constituency" at the polling booth, not an individual candidate or an individual party.

    Thats a poor example even the cats in Sheffield Hallam know Nick Clegg.
  • OllyT
    OllyT Posts: 5,050
    So the first phone poll of the week sees the Tory lead drop 4% in a week, and as we know, phone polls are the gold standard.
  • bigjohnowls
    bigjohnowls Posts: 22,951
    4.2% England only swing.

    Thats an EICIPM swing IMO

    Most seats on a knife edge Glad i am not on at 1/5
  • TGOHF
    TGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Labour on 30% though - not far off 2010..
  • Plato
    Plato Posts: 15,724
    You read ConHome, so we didn't have to.

    Many thanx :sunglasses:
    Millsy said:

    The most interesting thing from Lord Ashcroft's focus group was about the possibility of Labour coming second and wanting to govern:

    One possible outcome is that Labour could form a government with the help of other parties, even if it comes second to the Conservatives in terms of both votes and seats. Most did not realise such an outcome was even possible, and many – including many who planned to vote Labour – were indignant at the idea: “They would have cheated their way in”; “It would be underhand. Not what the public wanted, not what the public said”; “It’s dealmongering, moving away from democracy”; “If that happened, at the next election, I’d think, what’s the point of voting?” Not everyone was exercised about it – but so many felt so strongly that it suggested such a government would have a job persuading the public of its political legitimacy, however constitutionally permissible it might be.

    Disaster if Miliband tries it

  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Mr. S, we're getting a huge number tomorrow. Something daft like eight.
  • surbiton
    surbiton Posts: 13,549
    Tissue_Price said:

    Lord Ashcroft ‏@LordAshcroft

    Ashcroft National Poll, 1-3 May: CON 32%, LAB 30%, LDEM 11%, UKIP 12%, GRN 7%. Details (and focus group report) on @ConHome, 4pm.

    Who is getting the other 8%. SNP 4-5%. The rest ?

    3% = 1m votes.
  • Millsy
    Millsy Posts: 900
    Can I be the first to say "bank holiday weekend polling" ...
  • botanically_speaking
    botanically_speaking Posts: 87
    CD13 said:


    Just been Yougov'ed again and asked about my vote. Still the same as last week.

    It's almost as if* they ask the same 330 confirmed tory voters and 330 confirmed labour voters the same question at the same time every day. Then we start to get the same feeling of mild excitement the same time (10.29pm) every day, followed by the same sense of anti-climax (10.31pm) every day.

    Polls Schmolls.

    * I appreciate it is very much more scientific than this.
  • Stereotomy
    Stereotomy Posts: 4,092
    surbiton said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    Lord Ashcroft ‏@LordAshcroft

    Ashcroft National Poll, 1-3 May: CON 32%, LAB 30%, LDEM 11%, UKIP 12%, GRN 7%. Details (and focus group report) on @ConHome, 4pm.

    Who is getting the other 8%. SNP 4-5%. The rest ?

    3% = 1m votes.
    Could be rounding going on
  • Millsy
    Millsy Posts: 900
    Plato said:

    You read ConHome, so we didn't have to.

    Many thanx :sunglasses:

    Millsy said:

    The most interesting thing from Lord Ashcroft's focus group was about the possibility of Labour coming second and wanting to govern:

    One possible outcome is that Labour could form a government with the help of other parties, even if it comes second to the Conservatives in terms of both votes and seats. Most did not realise such an outcome was even possible, and many – including many who planned to vote Labour – were indignant at the idea: “They would have cheated their way in”; “It would be underhand. Not what the public wanted, not what the public said”; “It’s dealmongering, moving away from democracy”; “If that happened, at the next election, I’d think, what’s the point of voting?” Not everyone was exercised about it – but so many felt so strongly that it suggested such a government would have a job persuading the public of its political legitimacy, however constitutionally permissible it might be.

    Disaster if Miliband tries it

    How dare you!

    Straight from the horse's mouth:

    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2015/05/ashcroft-national-poll-con-32-lab-30-lib-dem-11-ukip-12-green-7/
  • Plato
    Plato Posts: 15,724
    I was done yesterday. No wonder their polls are so static.
    CD13 said:


    Just been Yougov'ed again and asked about my vote. Still the same as last week.

  • With_nowt_taken_out
    With_nowt_taken_out Posts: 9
    After a few days split between a northern Lab/Con marginal and a southern Con/ Lib marginal, for me it feels we have 4 key 'pots' of voters that will determine the outcome.

    1. About 25% of the UKIP voters are toying with voting Conservative- SNP, economy, EdM are making them think hard
    2. Labour voters who didn't vote last time and who may or may not vote this time
    3. Labour voters who don't like Edm -They may stay at home, vote green or even a few vote tory
    4 Labour voters who have lent their votes to the lib dem over the last few years. A number of these are unsure who they vote for this time

    The first 3 will determine the outcome and the 4th will decide a number of Con/ Lib marginal- I guess in 54hrs we will know the answer to the puzzle.
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    This was the most telling part for me. Many voters deciding Ed wasn't quite so crap anyway:

    Er, moving on… for those who were paying attention, who had done well? “The woman was brilliant. The one with the red suit on.” But several participants also said Ed Miliband had been a revelation, not just in the debates but throughout the campaign. “They’ve managed expectations about him and suddenly he looks like a Prime Minister. They never stopped going on about the bacon sandwich incident until it kicked off, and now he’s like a different person.” Even his encounter with Russell Brand had been “brave”. Many still had their doubts, however: “Some of the things he says are quite good but I don’t think they’re going to happen”; “He’s quite emotive and sensitive and speaks from the heart, but whether being emotive and sensitive is right for a PM or not, I don’t know”; “He can’t really represent Labour, let alone the UK. They will walk all over him.”

    But few of those already leaning towards Labour said they saw Miliband as a major barrier: “He gets a hard time and he’s an easy target. But if he got to be Prime Minister I could live with it.”
  • OblitusSumMe
    OblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    Millsy said:

    Can I be the first to say "bank holiday weekend polling" ...

    The weather was lovely in many parts of the country on Monday too.

    The opinion pollsters need to get the date of the election shifted in future years or they are going to get hammered election after election.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    NoEasyDay said:

    Pulpstar said:

    NoEasyDay said:

    Pulpstar said:

    NoEasyDay said:

    Pulpstar said:

    OblitusSumMe said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Anyone else nervous about The Ashcroft?

    Only because Ashcroft has spent an enormous sum of money on his polling and if it turns out not to be all that accurate we might never see the like again.
    1 Question - name the candidates. That is all.

    You can do it unnamed before they're known but after - simply name them.
    Jeesus do you really think people know the candidates. Naming them would just confuse the f*ck out of people. I would guess 99% of people don't even know the name of their MP or their constituency.
    If it makes no difference in 97% of cases, it makes no difference. But the 3% may well count.
    I haven't done statistics for a long while BUT what do you think the odds of getting a fair representation of those 3% is in a single poll.
    Sorry but the Sheffield Hallam result was clearly statistically different when you name the candidates. A single question naming the candidates with no prior questions, simply is the best approach.

    And only ICM has done it in Hallam. If any pollsters are listening it clearly is the best method.

    You vote for "Candidate ABC of XYZ Constituency" at the polling booth, not an individual candidate or an individual party.

    Thats a poor example even the cats in Sheffield Hallam know Nick Clegg.
    And when he isn't named, he is BEHIND.

    Everyone and their dog SHOULD know Clegg is the Lib Dem PPC for Hallam. Those answering the poll all probably do so. But when he is named, some will switch their answer to him. My guess is it'd be the same at the ballot box. When he isn't named they'll answer Conservative, even though they know "Nick Clegg" is standing.

    I agree - It really, really shouldn't be the case. But it is. @JackW is quite right on this matter.
  • SouthamObserver
    SouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    Dair said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    That's two SNP members suspended after SLab's haranguing of Murphy and Izzard yesterday. I blame MI5.

    Seems second person was at a protest against Brown today and not involved yesterday. Some press getting confused so I guess that's why you're making the mistake.

    No, he was there yesterday too. He was in the photo I posted and you said was "desperate stuff". But I do accept you truly believe otherwise.

  • PeterC
    PeterC Posts: 1,275
    edited May 2015
    TGOHF said:

    Labour on 30% though - not far off 2010..

    One thing strikes me which is obvious - the inherent uncertainty in the measurement is bigger than the thing being measured. Surely almost nothing can be concluded with any confidence from any of the polling.

  • Bob__Sykes
    Bob__Sykes Posts: 1,179
    edited May 2015
    OllyT said:

    So the first phone poll of the week sees the Tory lead drop 4% in a week, and as we know, phone polls are the gold standard.

    I suppose it might be presumed that a greater number of Tory voters were away over the BH weekend?
    MonikerDiCanio said:

    Scott_P said:

    @LadPolitics: Could Alex Salmond be in trouble? One Aberdonian has just had £3,000 on the Lib Dems to win Gordon at 5/1. Latest odds
    1/6 #snp
    7/2 #libdems

    And Aberdonians are very careful with their money..
    Eck's rejection would be a moment of exquisite bliss.
    It certainly would. I would relish that one.

    He might still make it to Westminster - guest contributor on This Week, for example?
  • chestnut
    chestnut Posts: 7,341
    Labour on 30 for the third week running.

    Tories on 2% in Scotland.

    Last three weeks the Tories have been 34,36,32. Pick the middle.

    The E+W regional swings are 2.6 or lower in the last couple of weeks.
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    In hindsight, the October conferences were poor for the Tories. Ed bombing with his leader's speech made people believe he truly was crap, forgetting the deficit and immigration, and they got complacent about that.

    They truly didn't expect him to bounce back from that. And he did and he has.
  • Tykejohnno
    Tykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Casino_Royale said:

    This was the most telling part for me. Many voters deciding Ed wasn't quite so crap anyway:

    Er, moving on… for those who were paying attention, who had done well? “The woman was brilliant. The one with the red suit on.” But several participants also said Ed Miliband had been a revelation, not just in the debates but throughout the campaign. “They’ve managed expectations about him and suddenly he looks like a Prime Minister. They never stopped going on about the bacon sandwich incident until it kicked off, and now he’s like a different person.” Even his encounter with Russell Brand had been “brave”. Many still had their doubts, however: “Some of the things he says are quite good but I don’t think they’re going to happen”; “He’s quite emotive and sensitive and speaks from the heart, but whether being emotive and sensitive is right for a PM or not, I don’t know”; “He can’t really represent Labour, let alone the UK. They will walk all over him.”

    But few of those already leaning towards Labour said they saw Miliband as a major barrier: “He gets a hard time and he’s an easy target. But if he got to be Prime Minister I could live with it.”

    Christ help us all ;-)
  • Dair
    Dair Posts: 6,108
    Stupid, stupid SNP.

    They've put yesterdays pseudo-False Flag back in the news.
  • Peter_the_Punter
    Peter_the_Punter Posts: 14,779
    OllyT said:

    So the first phone poll of the week sees the Tory lead drop 4% in a week, and as we know, phone polls are the gold standard.

    So you could say 'Tories dropping like a stone....'

    OK, where's my coat.
  • chestnut
    chestnut Posts: 7,341
    Casino_Royale said:

    In hindsight, the October conferences were poor for the Tories. Ed bombing with his leader's speech made people believe he truly was crap, forgetting the deficit and immigration, and they got complacent about that.

    They truly didn't expect him to bounce back from that. And he did and he has.

    30%.
  • Itwasrigged
    Itwasrigged Posts: 154
    MonikerDiCanio said:

    Scott_P said:

    @LadPolitics: Could Alex Salmond be in trouble? One Aberdonian has just had £3,000 on the Lib Dems to win Gordon at 5/1. Latest odds
    1/6 #snp
    7/2 #libdems

    And Aberdonians are very careful with their money..
    Eck's rejection would be a moment of exquisite bliss.
    If he is married then he is getting the frying pan on his crown when the wife squeals and hisses " How much?" :)
  • TGOHF
    TGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Dair said:

    Stupid, stupid SNP.

    They've put yesterdays pseudo-False Flag back in the news.

    Looks like Murphy has found the SNP's Achilles heel ..

  • Alistair
    Alistair Posts: 23,670
    MonikerDiCanio said:

    Scott_P said:

    @LadPolitics: Could Alex Salmond be in trouble? One Aberdonian has just had £3,000 on the Lib Dems to win Gordon at 5/1. Latest odds
    1/6 #snp
    7/2 #libdems

    And Aberdonians are very careful with their money..
    Eck's rejection would be a moment of exquisite bliss.
    The Lib Dems swore blind they had beaten Salmond for the Scottish parliament election in 2007 even after the polls closed.
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,080
    More phone polls, TSE! More!

    :)
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