politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » When Lynton Crosby last ran a Tory campaign LAB was underst
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Have we had a poll today yet0
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The future of this country rests with my fellow Hallamites.Dair said:
If the Liberals hopes and ambitions now rest entirely on a poll of 501 people in Sheffield Hallem, they do not have their troubles to seek.TheScreamingEagles said:
1) The ICM poll in Sheffield Hallam which gives a boost to named candidates, possibly rendering Lord Ashcroft's polling mootPolruan said:
Leaving aside the obvious references to hell freezing over, what has to happen for Lab to hit the magic majority number? Assuming they retain 5 in Scotland and LD down to 20 (probably the best real world numbers they could hope for), what's the necessary swing from Tories in E&W to get there?RodCrosby said:Lab majority 210 on BF...
2) Labour's tacit admission that they are going to lose the popular vote and finish behind in seats
3) Sources close to Ed saying he will carry on as leader even if he doesn't become PM.
Vote Clegg = Get another ConDem coalition.0 -
Who is this being driven by though - people who've had peeks at postals, CCHQ trying to rig the markets, shrewdies, mugs or whatTissue_Price said:Cameron favourite again.
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He's actually a Tory. But they can be suspended from the SNP because they are meant to share "your values, your concerns and your priorities".Alanbrooke said:
obviously the SNP will have suspended him for cooperating with Labour to attack Jim Murphy.TheScreamingEagles said:
YupRichard_Nabavi said:
The ones who were nothing whatsoever to do with the SNP, right?TheScreamingEagles said:I see the SNP have suspended one of those oh so polite chaps from yesterday
http://bit.ly/1KJvQqN0 -
Friends of Chuka?Pulpstar said:
Who is this being driven by though - people who've had peeks at postals, CCHQ trying to rig the markets, shrewdies, mugs or whatTissue_Price said:Cameron favourite again.
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... or it took a while to carveDimitry said:It's just dawned on me why Ed's policy sheet of paper remained blank for so long. He just couldn't get to it under his policy paperweight ...
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I hope people have not had a sneek preview of my Lambert & Butler General Election Predictor Model ( Southend on Sea Formula with 8 million synergies)...........it's a game changer .Pulpstar said:
Who is this being driven by though - people who've had peeks at postals, CCHQ trying to rig the markets, shrewdies, mugs or whatTissue_Price said:Cameron favourite again.
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Next phone poll is out in 44 minutes timeSunil_Prasannan said:Phone polls.... must have phone polls....
(last one, fieldwork-wise, was ComRes on 30th April)0 -
If you had to pick a week to lose, the last one would probably not be your first choice.SeanT said:
Labour have been flailing since EdStone, if not before. They're palpably losing the last week of the campaign. Perhaps it is that?Pulpstar said:
Who is this being driven by though - people who've had peeks at postals, CCHQ trying to rig the markets, shrewdies, mugs or whatTissue_Price said:Cameron favourite again.
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No-one said they were not members of the SNP.CarlottaVance said:
One of the ones who hadn't got anything to do with the SNP?TheScreamingEagles said:I see the SNP have suspended one of those oh so polite chaps from yesterday
It was pointed out that no-one had presented any evidence that they were members.
We now know Doughty Brown was. We can also infer - as Clerkin is known - that Clerkin is not a member of the SNP (have read he left in 2007 a couple of times but never with a reference).0 -
Before the campaign started many in Labour did not seem to realise how good a position they might be in - even though a majority would be very difficult, the way our system works and the coalition mathetmatics point in their favour - and then smooth, reasonable Ed did not collapse and that many became more confident. Now, even though fundamentally they are still in a good position, they've slipped in the mockery war a little, and some few are panicing again, even though things still favour them (in the short term at least). Tories may weirdly have more momentum going in to the election aftermath even though they are the ones who are going to lose net seats.SeanT said:
Labour have been flailing since EdStone, if not before. They're palpably losing the last week of the campaign. Perhaps it is that?Pulpstar said:
Who is this being driven by though - people who've had peeks at postals, CCHQ trying to rig the markets, shrewdies, mugs or whatTissue_Price said:Cameron favourite again.
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Miliband's limestone slab is a masterpiece of modern political art.CarlottaVance said:
At a cost of £30,000, according to some reports....SeanT said:
He's already built the stone. It already exists. It is eight and a half foot high.Bob__Sykes said:
I'm consoling myself with the thought that if (when) Ed does become PM, he might actually build this damned thing.SeanT said:
The EdStone wasn't just the daftest moment of this election, it was the daftest moment in any election, ever, and none of us here shall see its like, in our lifetimes.AllyPally_Rob said:I think the EdStone has claimed the mantle of Daftest campaign moment by a mile. What a stupid idiotic clusterf*ck of an idea (and i say that as a Lab voter).
Any other nominations for this accolade? The Tory promise to outlaw tax rises was another bonkers idea, but not in the same league as the EdStone IMHO. It just reminds me of those terrifying Aids adverts in the 80s!
It might even be the Daftest Moment in human history, comparable only with the day Mad Queen Ravalona 1 of Madagascar ordered the construction of an enormous pair of scissors so she could the marching armies of her enemies in two*.
*True story.
I think the Tory leader of Westminster Council who seemed to pooh-pooh it at the weekend on planning grounds should make sure there are no obstacles put in PM Miliband's way, and that appropriate pressure is put on No 10 to make this plan come to fruition.
The Tate Modern should purchase it and instal it in the urinals where it would quickly become a landmark and much visited exhibit.0 -
Today was the day that Labour were going to highlight the Tories are going to sack all the nurses then bukkake on them.Tissue_Price said:
If you had to pick a week to lose, the last one would probably not be your first choice.SeanT said:
Labour have been flailing since EdStone, if not before. They're palpably losing the last week of the campaign. Perhaps it is that?Pulpstar said:
Who is this being driven by though - people who've had peeks at postals, CCHQ trying to rig the markets, shrewdies, mugs or whatTissue_Price said:Cameron favourite again.
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Dave truly is a lucky general0 -
I was loitering on Old Compton Street yesterday. I thought of you as I did so.Roger said:Moses
"Here in St Ives Cornwall and David Cameron is shortly to arrive at the town Hall apparently..."
Do they bus you in so it looks like there are lots of Tories with placards and rosettes who just happen to be loitering by the quayside?
I wasn't wearing a rosette or clutching a placard though. That would have been quite inappropriate.0 -
Bukkake?
Sheesh, I've turned into SeanT0 -
Huzzah!!!TheScreamingEagles said:
Next phone poll is out in 44 minutes timeSunil_Prasannan said:Phone polls.... must have phone polls....
(last one, fieldwork-wise, was ComRes on 30th April)0 -
https://weegingerdug.wordpress.com/2015/05/03/edhenge/
"Ed said that the stone would symbolise his commitment to keep his pledges and rebuild trust in British politics, a bit like Rory the Tory’s big pile of chucky stanes which was supposed to symbolise the eternal union between our two blesséd countries and which promptly vanished as soon as the independence referendum was out of the way. We can trust that Ed’s big stane will be equally irrelevant and impermanent, and within a week of the election it will be tied around the feet of the party’s Scottish strategists as they are tossed off the Labour boat as the recriminations get into full swing. [...]
Possibly the big stick of Edhenge rock is intended to be one of the obelisks from 2001, and its mere presence will impart sentience upon the rock bangers and head bangers surrounding it who will rapidly evolve into self aware beings. It will certainly raise the average IQ of the advisors who thought it was a good idea.
But it’s far too late for Labour to evolve into intelligent life, and Labour self-awareness died the day that they elected Tony Blair as party leader. On the eve of an election – they commission a tombstone. That’s the only symbolism that people will take from this latest idiocy."
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'72 hours to Save Lucy Powell'.TheScreamingEagles said:
Today was the day that Labour were going to highlight the Tories are going to sack all the nurses then bukkake on them.Tissue_Price said:
If you had to pick a week to lose, the last one would probably not be your first choice.SeanT said:
Labour have been flailing since EdStone, if not before. They're palpably losing the last week of the campaign. Perhaps it is that?Pulpstar said:
Who is this being driven by though - people who've had peeks at postals, CCHQ trying to rig the markets, shrewdies, mugs or whatTissue_Price said:Cameron favourite again.
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Dave truly is a lucky general0 -
Re London - with the FT, Economist, and Evening Standard all backing Conservatives and the Independent the coalition will this have a negative effect on labour's London dominance0
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about 6.5% ?Polruan said:
Leaving aside the obvious references to hell freezing over, what has to happen for Lab to hit the magic majority number? Assuming they retain 5 in Scotland and LD down to 20 (probably the best real world numbers they could hope for), what's the necessary swing from Tories in E&W to get there?RodCrosby said:Lab majority 210 on BF...
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Bugger (won't be able to read it for a couple of hours).Sunil_Prasannan said:
Huzzah!!!TheScreamingEagles said:
Next phone poll is out in 44 minutes timeSunil_Prasannan said:Phone polls.... must have phone polls....
(last one, fieldwork-wise, was ComRes on 30th April)0 -
Probably not.Big_G_NorthWales said:Re London - with the FT, Economist, and Evening Standard all backing Conservatives and the Independent the coalition will this have a negative effect on labour's London dominance
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I thought it was only Clerkin who people were saying that about.Prodicus said:
Can't have done. We have it on good authority *cough* he was nothing to do with the SNP.TheScreamingEagles said:I see the SNP have suspended one of those oh so polite chaps from yesterday
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Please say you're going to be on a plane.RobD said:
Bugger (won't be able to read it for a couple of hours).Sunil_Prasannan said:
Huzzah!!!TheScreamingEagles said:
Next phone poll is out in 44 minutes timeSunil_Prasannan said:Phone polls.... must have phone polls....
(last one, fieldwork-wise, was ComRes on 30th April)0 -
Just seen Cameron speech in st Ives and other speeches in Cornwall,the guy genuinely seems to love the place,is Cameron the most pro Cornwall PM. ;-)SeanT said:
Labour have been flailing since EdStone, if not before. They're palpably losing the last week of the campaign. Perhaps it is that?Pulpstar said:
Who is this being driven by though - people who've had peeks at postals, CCHQ trying to rig the markets, shrewdies, mugs or whatTissue_Price said:Cameron favourite again.
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Na, were driving down to the airport. Bad timingTheScreamingEagles said:
Please say you're going to be on a plane.RobD said:
Bugger (won't be able to read it for a couple of hours).Sunil_Prasannan said:
Huzzah!!!TheScreamingEagles said:
Next phone poll is out in 44 minutes timeSunil_Prasannan said:Phone polls.... must have phone polls....
(last one, fieldwork-wise, was ComRes on 30th April)0 -
It's a little bit old but I thought this was quite funny:
http://www.pinknews.co.uk/2015/04/16/are-anti-gay-campaigners-accidentally-helping-caroline-lucas-to-get-re-elected/
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Oops. My mistake. All these SNP types look alike to me.Alistair said:
I thought it was only Clerkin who people were saying that about.Prodicus said:
Can't have done. We have it on good authority *cough* he was nothing to do with the SNP.TheScreamingEagles said:I see the SNP have suspended one of those oh so polite chaps from yesterday
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Wasnt he the one who actually stood for the SNP (in a ward that people tried to deny even existed they were so sure that was black propaganda)?Alistair said:
I thought it was only Clerkin who people were saying that about.Prodicus said:
Can't have done. We have it on good authority *cough* he was nothing to do with the SNP.TheScreamingEagles said:I see the SNP have suspended one of those oh so polite chaps from yesterday
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Lucy Powell has made a massive idiot of herself, but this site is beyond obsessed with EdStone in a way, that I doubt your average voter is.0
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I think the markets are moving on the back of a few things.
1. Sheffield Hallam poll throwing up doubts on the good lords marginal polling
2. Article in New statesman saying Labour top knobs don't believe the Ashcroft Marginals polling (believe they are in much worse position)
3. Article in Labour Uncut about the postal vote not holding up 36% down on last election, yeh I know its all meant to be secret.
I have to say the narrative of this election seems to have been largely driven by Ashcroft polling if that's up the Swanee, then anything is possible, Tory majority anyone ?0 -
If only Ed had gone shopping in MorrissonsThe_Apocalypse said:Lucy Powell has made a massive idiot of herself, but this site is beyond obsessed with EdStone in a way, that I doubt your average voter is.
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How bad does it have to be if even the Lib Dems are taking the piss?The_Apocalypse said:Lucy Powell has made a massive idiot of herself, but this site is beyond obsessed with EdStone in a way, that I doubt your average voter is.
@LibDems: It seems Lucy Powell has made some changes to #EdStone... http://t.co/V6CqMQDXHv0 -
Anyone else nervous about The Ashcroft?0
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Mr. P, could be worse. At least a Downfall parody hasn't been made and gone viral.0
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tim was only one poster!TheScreamingEagles said:
If only Ed had gone shopping in MorrissonsThe_Apocalypse said:Lucy Powell has made a massive idiot of herself, but this site is beyond obsessed with EdStone in a way, that I doubt your average voter is.
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Yes. Lab lead I'm going for.Casino_Royale said:Anyone else nervous about The Ashcroft?
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These spoof Nats are great waste of MI5 resources.Neil said:
Wasnt he the one who actually stood for the SNP (in a ward that people tried to deny even existed they were so sure that was black propaganda)?Alistair said:
I thought it was only Clerkin who people were saying that about.Prodicus said:
Can't have done. We have it on good authority *cough* he was nothing to do with the SNP.TheScreamingEagles said:I see the SNP have suspended one of those oh so polite chaps from yesterday
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Yes, but it's still all Westminster Village stuff. Powell has made herself (and Ed Miliband) look silly, even accusing Guido of misogyny, so of course other parties will attack EdStone, but I doubt it'll be at the back of voters' minds come Thursday.Scott_P said:
How bad does it have to be if even the Lib Dems are taking the piss?The_Apocalypse said:Lucy Powell has made a massive idiot of herself, but this site is beyond obsessed with EdStone in a way, that I doubt your average voter is.
@LibDems: It seems Lucy Powell has made some changes to #EdStone... http://t.co/V6CqMQDXHv0 -
That's pretty serious.TheScreamingEagles said:
Yes. Lab lead I'm going for.Casino_Royale said:Anyone else nervous about The Ashcroft?
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Don't worry - you'll get a significant Tory lead (and we'll see many on this site coincidentally at that moment not doubting the validity of Ashcroft polls).Casino_Royale said:Anyone else nervous about The Ashcroft?
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Ashcroft prediction: 30/30/20/10/5/4/1TheScreamingEagles said:
Yes. Lab lead I'm going for.Casino_Royale said:Anyone else nervous about The Ashcroft?
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Repeat the mantra all you want.Neil said:
Wasnt he the one who actually stood for the SNP (in a ward that people tried to deny even existed they were so sure that was black propaganda)?Alistair said:
I thought it was only Clerkin who people were saying that about.Prodicus said:
Can't have done. We have it on good authority *cough* he was nothing to do with the SNP.TheScreamingEagles said:I see the SNP have suspended one of those oh so polite chaps from yesterday
Asking someone to provide evidence of claims is quite different to saying the claim is wrong. Ironically, I'm the only person to actually provide evidence of a link between Clerkin and the SNP (he was a member in 2003 and a paper candidate in a now defunct ward well outside his residential area).
I understand the fear dyed in the wool Ulster Unionists like yourself have regarding the SNP but it's really none of your business how Scotland runs.0 -
I am told by my friend who is a financial analyst in the city that the markets expect Miliband to be PM and have done so for weeks but the press don't want to report this.If any financial analysts are on here,could they confirm?0
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This is a polling site, and most people aren't interested in polling.The_Apocalypse said:Lucy Powell has made a massive idiot of herself, but this site is beyond obsessed with EdStone in a way, that I doubt your average voter is.
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Yes, that's correct. Tens of thousands of traders have been sworn to secrecy.SMukesh said:I am told by my friend who is a financial analyst in the city that the markets expect Miliband to be PM and have done so for weeks but the press don't want to report this.If any financial analysts are on here,could they confirm?
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See the Labour target list:Polruan said:
Leaving aside the obvious references to hell freezing over, what has to happen for Lab to hit the magic majority number? Assuming they retain 5 in Scotland and LD down to 20 (probably the best real world numbers they could hope for), what's the necessary swing from Tories in E&W to get there?RodCrosby said:Lab majority 210 on BF...
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dDRiT1FSRTF2bjVYRThSTnRaNzFXMlE#gid=00 -
Another lifelong Labour luvvie comes out for..err.. Labour:
http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/05/robert-webb-ed-miliband-might-not-be-kind-leader-you-put-t-shirt-he-still-needs-my0 -
When your trending 4th on Twitter it is no longer restricted to the Bubble.The_Apocalypse said:
Yes, but it's still all Westminster Village stuff. Powell has made herself (and Ed Miliband) look silly, even accusing Guido of misogyny, so of course other parties will attack EdStone, but I doubt it'll be at the back of voters' minds come Thursday.Scott_P said:
How bad does it have to be if even the Lib Dems are taking the piss?The_Apocalypse said:Lucy Powell has made a massive idiot of herself, but this site is beyond obsessed with EdStone in a way, that I doubt your average voter is.
@LibDems: It seems Lucy Powell has made some changes to #EdStone... http://t.co/V6CqMQDXHv0 -
Indicative of what exactly - beyond that even people on the left can see the funny side, and the ineptness of Lucy Powell?SeanT said:
"Lucy Powell" is trending at number 4 on Twitter, UK-wide. It's not for her views on public transport.The_Apocalypse said:Lucy Powell has made a massive idiot of herself, but this site is beyond obsessed with EdStone in a way, that I doubt your average voter is.
Yes, Twitter does not represent the world (it's too leftwing for that) but it is indicative.0 -
I don't wish to be rude. But that's the most absurd thing I've heard this week.SMukesh said:I am told by my friend who is a financial analyst in the city that the markets expect Miliband to be PM and have done so for weeks but the press don't want to report this.If any financial analysts are on here,could they confirm?
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... and they're all making no trades on this basis.watford30 said:
Yes, that's correct. Tens of thousands of traders have been sworn to secrecy.SMukesh said:I am told by my friend who is a financial analyst in the city that the markets expect Miliband to be PM and have done so for weeks but the press don't want to report this.If any financial analysts are on here,could they confirm?
Jesus.0 -
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Correction: it's a betting site, and most people aren't interested in betting.AndyJS said:
This is a polling site, and most people aren't interested in polling.The_Apocalypse said:Lucy Powell has made a massive idiot of herself, but this site is beyond obsessed with EdStone in a way, that I doubt your average voter is.
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I think it is still restricted. Twitter, to all intends a purposes has a centre-left demographic whose interests in politics and knowledge of politics ongoings go beyond your average person.Dair said:
When your trending 4th on Twitter it is no longer restricted to the Bubble.The_Apocalypse said:
Yes, but it's still all Westminster Village stuff. Powell has made herself (and Ed Miliband) look silly, even accusing Guido of misogyny, so of course other parties will attack EdStone, but I doubt it'll be at the back of voters' minds come Thursday.Scott_P said:
How bad does it have to be if even the Lib Dems are taking the piss?The_Apocalypse said:Lucy Powell has made a massive idiot of herself, but this site is beyond obsessed with EdStone in a way, that I doubt your average voter is.
@LibDems: It seems Lucy Powell has made some changes to #EdStone... http://t.co/V6CqMQDXHv0 -
Besides being a totally naff thing to do, I am embarrassed that, compared to other statements in stone throughout history, the best that a potential leader of this country could come up with is a curtailed list of petty vacuous twitterings. He couldn't even think of 10 items! Is this the best that a potential ambassador of this country could do - if he's going to do it, it should be something that should stir the soul and last a thousand years! It is to be hoped that every politician holds these sentiments. The man's a lightweight!0
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London is home to vast numbers of students and people who are EU citizens, so I can't help wondering how many haven't registered to vote or aren't eligible.Big_G_NorthWales said:Re London - with the FT, Economist, and Evening Standard all backing Conservatives and the Independent the coalition will this have a negative effect on labour's London dominance
The BES data about Labour's diminishing, ethnic minority advantage is also something to watch for.
If that's accurate, it will probably materialise in the more affluent London suburbs rather than Labour's inner-city core.0 -
How can you hide the markets - they are on display every day? Neither FTSE nor £ look especially negative to me.SMukesh said:I am told by my friend who is a financial analyst in the city that the markets expect Miliband to be PM and have done so for weeks but the press don't want to report this.If any financial analysts are on here,could they confirm?
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Well quite. I have spoken to someone with contacts in the City who thinks the exact opposite, and points to the remarkable stability of Sterling as evidence for that.NoEasyDay said:
I don't wish to be rude. But that's the most absurd thing I've heard this week.SMukesh said:I am told by my friend who is a financial analyst in the city that the markets expect Miliband to be PM and have done so for weeks but the press don't want to report this.If any financial analysts are on here,could they confirm?
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Just got our postal votes, who to blame SSDC or Correos. May get back by international special delivery but only an outside chance. Just as well David Laws is not depending on us
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"Clegg Warns Of Second Election By Christmas
There will be a second election by Christmas if David Cameron or Ed Miliband attempt to go it alone with a "messy and unstable" minority administration, Nick Clegg has warned. The Liberal Democrat leader said a minority government, relying on the support of either UKIP or the SNP, would be chaotic and the two main party leaders should not put their own interests ahead of those of the British people."
http://news.sky.com/story/1478057/clegg-warns-of-second-election-by-christmas0 -
More gaiety for the nation - she sounds most colourful
'Female Walter Mitty' Labour candidate who has rubbed shoulders with Ed Miliband is jailed for £120,000 festival tickets fraud
Charmaine Bowers, 23, tricked more than 300 people into paying out up to £500 each for bogus tickets to the Tomorrowland Music Festival in Belgium
Her mother Tina, 51, 'facilitated' fraud with cash paid into her bank account
Bowers was due to stand in local elections on Thursday and met Labour leader Ed Miliband last month
She has been jailed for two years and three months after admitting six counts of fraud by false representation
Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3068837/Female-Walter-Mitty-Labour-candidate-rubbed-shoulders-Ed-Miliband-jailed-120-000-festival-tickets-fraud.html#ixzz3ZH91qKuS
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook0 -
I thought it was a betting site, to be exact? I don't quite get the point you're making, though.AndyJS said:
This is a polling site, and most people aren't interested in polling.The_Apocalypse said:Lucy Powell has made a massive idiot of herself, but this site is beyond obsessed with EdStone in a way, that I doubt your average voter is.
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A bit of background on this photo, which might help put yesterday's Glasgow scuffle in perspective:Anorak said:I really like this picture on Angry Salmond.
https://twitter.com/AngrySalmond/status/595369530785947648
http://wingsoverscotland.com/waiting-for-nicola/#more-70888
Will be interesting to see whether any of the MSM pick up on this.0 -
That's two SNP members suspended after SLab's haranguing of Murphy and Izzard yesterday. I blame MI5.0
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Big Jim Murphy has played a blinder this week with the Nasty Nats. 12 more months and it should pay off in the Holyrood elections.
He's following the Crosby "turn em radioactive" strategy which has thwarted Ukips plans to have more than 3 seats.0 -
Lots of Labour mistakes, campaign running Conservatives' way: an op poll kick in the balls almost inevitable.0
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In other words: Clegg "I want to carry on as Deputy Prime Minister"AndyJS said:"Clegg Warns Of Second Election By Christmas
There will be a second election by Christmas if David Cameron or Ed Miliband attempt to go it alone with a "messy and unstable" minority administration, Nick Clegg has warned. The Liberal Democrat leader said a minority government, relying on the support of either UKIP or the SNP, would be chaotic and the two main party leaders should not put their own interests ahead of those of the British people."
http://news.sky.com/story/1478057/clegg-warns-of-second-election-by-christmas0 -
Only because Ashcroft has spent an enormous sum of money on his polling and if it turns out not to be all that accurate we might never see the like again.Casino_Royale said:Anyone else nervous about The Ashcroft?
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I've no doubt - it's the only funny thing to happen in the campaign to date, so we're grasping at it from left and right. I'm still predicting a Lab plurality, but it was a very silly idea, and Powell has been terrible every time I see her. Genuinely, and not in a 'I don't like what she said' sort of way.The_Apocalypse said:Lucy Powell has made a massive idiot of herself, but this site is beyond obsessed with EdStone in a way, that I doubt your average voter is.
Though the fun may be short lived for Tories if the next poll interrupts the narrative by being ok or even good for Labour0 -
Defeatist!TheScreamingEagles said:
Yes. Lab lead I'm going for.Casino_Royale said:Anyone else nervous about The Ashcroft?
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Hmmp. He's 91 (yes, 91) popularity points behind Nicola Sturgeon ...TGOHF said:Big Jim Murphy has played a blinder this week with the Nasty Nats. 12 more months and it should pay off in the Holyrood elections.
He's following the Crosby "turn em radioactive" strategy which has thwarted Ukips plans to have more than 3 seats.
Interesting you suggest it was all concocted by Mr Murphy, too.
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This election is weird. I honestly can't remember a time when people couldn't have given less of a sh*t than they do now. No excitement, no passion, no anticipation.. In my office, people are calmly talking about their diaries on Friday, and their plans for the weekend, without even mentioning it. It is truly "meh".
Yes this is not the case in Scotland. It is truly weird.0 -
What Clegg doesn't realise is that there's a very good chance that they'll be a second election regardless of whether the LDs a are apart of government or not.0
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I am a financial analyst and the answer to the original question is No - there is no consensus as to what will happen bar nobody knows.PeterC said:
How can you hide the markets - they are on display every day? Neither FTSE nor £ look especially negative to me.SMukesh said:I am told by my friend who is a financial analyst in the city that the markets expect Miliband to be PM and have done so for weeks but the press don't want to report this.If any financial analysts are on here,could they confirm?
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4 point Tory lead is my prediction (Ashcroft) ...0
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That just might be one of the photos of the election.calum said:
A bit of background on this photo, which might help put yesterday's Glasgow scuffle in perspective:Anorak said:I really like this picture on Angry Salmond.
https://twitter.com/AngrySalmond/status/595369530785947648
http://wingsoverscotland.com/waiting-for-nicola/#more-70888
Will be interesting to see whether any of the MSM pick up on this.0 -
Might be good not have in future. Too much info out there will depress prices.OblitusSumMe said:
Only because Ashcroft has spent an enormous sum of money on his polling and if it turns out not to be all that accurate we might never see the like again.Casino_Royale said:Anyone else nervous about The Ashcroft?
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I think there is a much darker underbelly to Unionism than Separatism, eventually in the interests of fair reporting the MSM may well get round to reporting on it during the next 12 months. The more seats SNP win the greater the risk that the Unionist underbelly rears it's head again like it did in George Square after the referendum.TGOHF said:Big Jim Murphy has played a blinder this week with the Nasty Nats. 12 more months and it should pay off in the Holyrood elections.
He's following the Crosby "turn em radioactive" strategy which has thwarted Ukips plans to have more than 3 seats.0 -
It's Ashcroft, and so far polls which have the methodology of reallocating DKs have been good for the Tories, so I imagine this place's happiness index will increase by 150%. You're right that Powell is dire though. Only Miliband would have her as an ''adviser'' of things....kle4 said:
I've no doubt - it's the only funny thing to happen in the campaign to date, so we're grasping at it from left and right. I'm still predicting a Lab plurality, but it was a very silly idea, and Powell has been terrible every time I see her. Genuinely, and not in a 'I don't like what she said' sort of way.The_Apocalypse said:Lucy Powell has made a massive idiot of herself, but this site is beyond obsessed with EdStone in a way, that I doubt your average voter is.
Though the fun may be short lived for Tories if the next poll interrupts the narrative by being ok or even good for Labour0 -
Phone polls have been more favourable to the Tories since February:Casino_Royale said:Anyone else nervous about The Ashcroft?
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/5948352468661575700 -
Cash for anecdotes
Tim Montgomerie ن (@montie)
05/05/2015 15:33
£100 from @TheSunNewspaper for stories about how the Tories have helped you!!! Via @peterjukes pic.twitter.com/Y360sYy2KA0 -
1 Question - name the candidates. That is all.OblitusSumMe said:
Only because Ashcroft has spent an enormous sum of money on his polling and if it turns out not to be all that accurate we might never see the like again.Casino_Royale said:Anyone else nervous about The Ashcroft?
You can do it unnamed before they're known but after - simply name them.0 -
Hullo all. Just over 2 hours until my last forecast for UKIP and others in the election is published.
Travelled around Hampstead and Camden Town this morning and the absence of posters and billboards is striking. I saw one window in Camden displaying a vote Labour poster; just one in miles of streets in this Labour London heartland. Uncanny! It's as if people have decided to vote - if at all - in silence.0 -
I predict if Labour beat the polls it will be in Scotland.Carnyx said:
Hmmp. He's 91 (yes, 91) popularity points behind Nicola Sturgeon ...TGOHF said:Big Jim Murphy has played a blinder this week with the Nasty Nats. 12 more months and it should pay off in the Holyrood elections.
He's following the Crosby "turn em radioactive" strategy which has thwarted Ukips plans to have more than 3 seats.
Interesting you suggest it was all concocted by Mr Murphy, too.
Murphy is now campaigning for 2016 - and toxication of the Nats is the first prong of his fork, prong 2 is to pour on the blame for all the shortcomings of the Holyrood govt.
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It's because bar the SNP all the other political campaigns have been awful, and very negative. Most people don't want to be scared into voting against something - they want something to vote for.Casino_Royale said:This election is weird. I honestly can't remember a time when people couldn't have given less of a sh*t than they do now. No excitement, no passion, no anticipation.. In my office, people are calmly talking about their diaries on Friday, and their plans for the weekend, without even mentioning it. It is truly "meh".
Yes this is not the case in Scotland. It is truly weird.0 -
Will my Camborne and Redruth betslips count ?isam said:Cash for anecdotes
Tim Montgomerie ن (@montie)
05/05/2015 15:33
£100 from @TheSunNewspaper for stories about how the Tories have helped you!!! Via @peterjukes pic.twitter.com/Y360sYy2KA0 -
Crikey I thought Ukip couldn't work out how to email but someone's managed to photoshop
Douglas Carswell (@DouglasCarswell)
05/05/2015 15:54
Out and about with Nigel in Thanet ..... Good response from local folk pic.twitter.com/T7M1YXpy0u0 -
@steve_hawkes: SNP has now suspended two people caught up in yesterday's scuffle with Jim Murphy... Sturgeon holds to line that nothing to do with them0
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I'm going for a 6 point Tory lead, and many Con majority, or Con 300+ seats 'on' posts.0
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BBC Scotland News retweeted
Laura Bicker @BBCLBicker 9m9 minutes ago
A second SNP member, James Scott, now suspended pending investigation after protest which interrupted Labour's rally in Glasgow yesterday.
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@Aidan_Kerr1: Unfortunately for the SNP Comms team photographers snapped James Scott giving Brown a torrent of abuse this afternoon.0
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I'm predicting expectation management on a vast scale.The_Apocalypse said:I'm going for a 6 point Tory lead, and many Con majority, or Con 300+ seats 'on' posts.
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@LordAshcroft: Ashcroft National Poll, 1-3 May: CON 32%, LAB 30%, LDEM 11%, UKIP 12%, GRN 7%. Details (and focus group report) on @ConHome, 4pm.0
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@LordAshcroft: Ashcroft National Poll, 1-3 May: CON 32%, LAB 30%, LDEM 11%, UKIP 12%, GRN 7%. Details (and focus group report) on @ConHome, 4pm.0
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Here's the link to yesterday's Statesman article suggesting a wobble coming from the results of Labour's own polling: http://www.newstatesman.com/politics/2015/05/are-ashcroft-polls-wrong ...
"But the problem for Labour is if their own data is right, it looks increasingly likely that not only will Clegg survive in Sheffield Hallam, but he will return to government as David Cameron’s deputy once again. " ..
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