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edited May 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » When Lynton Crosby last ran a Tory campaign LAB was understated in ALL the final polls

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  • Beverley_C
    Beverley_C Posts: 6,256
    edited May 2015
    First!
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,077
    Sunil Prasannan ‏@Sunil_P2 · 5m5 minutes ago
    #LibDems % scores in Electoral LeaderBoard Of the Week (ELBOW), split into Phone and Online polls updated for 1st May

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/595570909743816705
  • TCPoliticalBetting
    TCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    Why does Lynton Crosby have anything to do with the accuracy of polls?
    Why not look at the relevant sea temperature and the difference to the temperature in London on GE day?
  • felix
    felix Posts: 15,180
    I'm stunned! another thread on how the Tories can't win. must be some sort of record. :)
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Correlation doesn't equal causation
  • Beverley_C
    Beverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Interesting that Survation & Populus got Labour so wrong and yet they seem to be amongst the polls more favourable to Labour this time.

    Perhaps they are trying to make up for their earlier gaff?
  • felix
    felix Posts: 15,180
    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    Why does Lynton Crosby have anything to do with the accuracy of polls?
    Why not look at the relevant sea temperature and the difference to the temperature in London on GE day?

    Rofl
  • Scrapheap_as_was
    Scrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    You

    Are

    Having

    A

    Laugh

    Now.
  • Beverley_C
    Beverley_C Posts: 6,256
    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    Why does Lynton Crosby have anything to do with the accuracy of polls?
    Why not look at the relevant sea temperature and the difference to the temperature in London on GE day?

    The sea temperature is rather lukewarm, or was when I fell in yesterday.

  • Stereotomy
    Stereotomy Posts: 4,092
    Brb, putting life savings on Lab maj
  • Stereotomy
    Stereotomy Posts: 4,092
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Correlation doesn't equal causation

    This isn't really an appropriate use of that...
  • Ishmael_X
    Ishmael_X Posts: 3,664
    When Lab was last understated in ALL the final polls, no one had created an #EdStone.

    That photograph is truly iconic. If ed were a rock star it would come top in every single survey ever done to find the greatest album cover evah.
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,077

    Sunil Prasannan @Sunil_P2 · 25s 26 seconds ago
    #Labour % scores in Electoral LeaderBoard Of the Week (ELBOW), split into Phone and Online polls, updated for 1st May

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/595573471167512576
  • SandyRentool
    SandyRentool Posts: 23,156
    The polls (voters?) seem to be coming closer to my long-range forecast of 35/35/10/10.

    Mystic 'Tool
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    edited May 2015
    Ishmael_X said:

    When Lab was last understated in ALL the final polls, no one had created an #EdStone.

    That photograph is truly iconic. If ed were a rock star it would come top in every single survey ever done to find the greatest album cover evah.

    You know the EdStone is going to be on the front page of tomorrow's or Thursday's Sun for their most iconic front page since when they put Kinnock in a light bulb
  • Daniel
    Daniel Posts: 160
    Christ. Lucy Powell has descended into madness.
  • Neil
    Neil Posts: 7,983
    Interesting article from the NY TImes on campaign finance in the UK:

    http://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/05/world/europe/britains-campaign-finance-laws-leave-parties-with-idle-money.html?ref=todayspaper&_r=0
  • TCPoliticalBetting
    TCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited May 2015
    felix said:

    I'm stunned! another thread on how the Tories can't win. must be some sort of record. :)

    Yes we may be heading for a record number of reasons why this is so. But the one above is quite er remarkable. Ideas for next thread.

    My mother's brother's son's friend walked past someone who has changed their vote since 2010 and this must mean that the Conservatives have lost....
    or
    The Conservatives have never won a majority at a GE in the 21st century, so that means that they never will.
  • OblitusSumMe
    OblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    This would lead to the consensus-breaking outcome whereby Ed Miliband can command a majority in the House without SNP support (whether courted or not), perhaps with a Liberal Democrat coalition.

    If the milifandom teaches us anything it is that all things are possible.
  • felix
    felix Posts: 15,180
    The Tories clearly needed someone like Lucy Powell who, in true Lab-speak, denies saying what she said on BBC radio.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Sunil_Prasannan said:


    Sunil Prasannan @Sunil_P2 · 25s 26 seconds ago
    #Labour % scores in Electoral LeaderBoard Of the Week (ELBOW), split into Phone and Online polls, updated for 1st May

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/595573471167512576

    If Labour end up on 33%, we can say it woz the Sunil wot won it.
  • Plato
    Plato Posts: 15,724
    edited May 2015
    What precisely has Lynton Crosby got to do with polling accuracy. Have I missed something?

  • Ishmael_X
    Ishmael_X Posts: 3,664
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    When Lab was last understated in ALL the final polls, no one had created an #EdStone.

    That photograph is truly iconic. If ed were a rock star it would come top in every single survey ever done to find the greatest album cover evah.

    You know the EdStone is going to be on the front page of tomorrow's or Thursday's Sun for their most iconic front page when they put Kinnock in a light bulb
    Please be right about that.
  • TCPoliticalBetting
    TCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    Daniel said:

    Christ. Lucy Powell has descended into madness.

    I do not notice any change from her previous behaviour.
  • Tykejohnno
    Tykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    edited May 2015
    Sunil_Prasannan said:


    Sunil Prasannan @Sunil_P2 · 25s 26 seconds ago
    #Labour % scores in Electoral LeaderBoard Of the Week (ELBOW), split into Phone and Online polls, updated for 1st May

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/595573471167512576

    Rachel Reeves on bbc 2 now ;-)

    The welfare debate with all parties.

  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,077
    edited May 2015
    Pulpstar said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:


    Sunil Prasannan @Sunil_P2 · 25s 26 seconds ago
    #Labour % scores in Electoral LeaderBoard Of the Week (ELBOW), split into Phone and Online polls, updated for 1st May

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/595573471167512576

    If Labour end up on 33%, we can say it woz the Sunil wot won it.
    GOTCHA? But there's the Tory chart still to come!
  • BenM
    BenM Posts: 1,795
    Top trolling OGH!
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    The other thing, the two most accurate pollsters at the last General Election didn't poll on the London Mayoral election.
  • dyedwoolie
    dyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    If Lynton Crosby's bowel movement occurs before the polls open on GE day, it will mean Labour take the house. Remember in 2012 he just took a leak and left his poo poo till lunchtime and Boris took city hall.
    Meanwhile Lib Dem incumbency is predicted to be a billion times higher than any previous election and therefore Ed will be PM.
    Remarkable,
  • TCPoliticalBetting
    TCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    When Lab was last understated in ALL the final polls, no one had created an #EdStone.

    That photograph is truly iconic. If ed were a rock star it would come top in every single survey ever done to find the greatest album cover evah.

    You know the EdStone is going to be on the front page of tomorrow's or Thursday's Sun for their most iconic front page when they put Kinnock in a light bulb
    In 1979 there was a major backlog of head stones due to the grave diggers strike. May be this is an omen on who is going to win the GE?
  • CarlottaVance
    CarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    When Lynton Crosby last ran a Tory campaign........they won.

    Isn't that the slightly bigger picture?
  • Bob__Sykes
    Bob__Sykes Posts: 1,179
    SeanT said:

    AllyPally_Rob said:

    I think the EdStone has claimed the mantle of Daftest campaign moment by a mile. What a stupid idiotic clusterf*ck of an idea (and i say that as a Lab voter).

    Any other nominations for this accolade? The Tory promise to outlaw tax rises was another bonkers idea, but not in the same league as the EdStone IMHO. It just reminds me of those terrifying Aids adverts in the 80s!

    The EdStone wasn't just the daftest moment of this election, it was the daftest moment in any election, ever, and none of us here shall see its like, in our lifetimes.

    It might even be the Daftest Moment in human history, comparable only with the day Mad Queen Ravalona 1 of Madagascar ordered the construction of an enormous pair of scissors so she could the marching armies of her enemies in two*.

    *True story.
    I'm consoling myself with the thought that if (when) Ed does become PM, he might actually build this damned thing.

    I think the Tory leader of Westminster Council who seemed to pooh-pooh it at the weekend on planning grounds should make sure there are no obstacles put in PM Miliband's way, and that appropriate pressure is put on No 10 to make this plan come to fruition.
  • dyedwoolie
    dyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    CarlottaVance said:

    When Lynton Crosby last ran a Tory campaign........they won.

    Isn't that the slightly bigger picture?

    Comforting straws for soon to be skint punter
  • TCPoliticalBetting
    TCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    Plato said:

    What precisely has Lynton Crosby got to do with polling accuracy. Have I missed something?

    Possible evidence of the alleged baby eating tory monsters that want to shut down the NHS immediately and bring back children to clean chimneys?
  • Roger
    Roger Posts: 20,744
    edited May 2015
    Based on a sample of five my final poll is as follows;

    Consrvatives 302 seats

    Labour 255

    Lib Dem 30

    SNP 30

    Others whatever's left

    The polling breakdown is as follows;

    Conservative 3 (the first because he doesn't think it's a good idea to chop and change. The second because he doesn't like the SNP and the third because she likes the 33 hours childcare bribe )

    UKIP 1 (Because she likes Farage's policy on smoking)

    Labour 1 (Me)

    SNP -1 (See above)

    Lib Dem 0




  • dyedwoolie
    dyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    edited May 2015
    I think Ed better spend tomorrow between East Ham and Hackney, at least make sure the PLP is Abbott and Timms on a tandem.
  • Carnyx
    Carnyx Posts: 44,654
    dyedwoolie said:

    If Lynton Crosby's bowel movement occurs before the polls open on GE day, it will mean Labour take the house. Remember in 2012 he just took a leak and left his poo poo till lunchtime and Boris took city hall.
    Meanwhile Lib Dem incumbency is predicted to be a billion times higher than any previous election and therefore Ed will be PM.
    Remarkable,

    Do you mean, he does a Dr Gillian McKeith selfie? How extraordinary ...

  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Roger said:

    Based on a sample of five my final poll is as follows;

    Consrvatives 302 seats

    Labour 255

    Lib Dem 30

    SNP 30

    Others whatever's left

    The polling breakdown is as follows;

    Conservative 3 (the first because he doesn't think it's a good idea to chop and change. The second because he doesn't like the SNP and the third because she likes 33 hours childcare bribe )

    UKIP 1 (Because she likes Farage's policy on smoking)

    Labour 1 (Me)

    Lib Dem 0

    Therefore



    Well you called the Indyref right, so I'm hopeful you've called the GE right.
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    Sky are running a story about Lucy Powell claiming the the pledges on Ed's giant headstone might not actually be kept..
  • botanically_speaking
    botanically_speaking Posts: 87
    When Lynton Crosby last ran a Tory campaign........the polls were up to 9 points wrong?
  • DoubleCarpet
    DoubleCarpet Posts: 968
    Last call for UK & Poland games

    Dear all,

    Just a quick final reminder for the UK and Poland games which close at 7pm tomorrow:

    http://www.electiongame.co.uk/uk15/

    http://www.electiongame.co.uk/poland15/

    UK - make sure you complete ALL SECTIONS (new govt is optional) or your entry won't count!

    Poland - your predicted winner should have >50%

    Thanks!

    DC
  • Morris_Dancer
    Morris_Dancer Posts: 62,742
    Perhaps worth noting London is hardly typical of England [not many places with a white minority].
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    DoubleCarpet said:

    Last call for UK & Poland games

    Dear all,

    Just a quick final reminder for the UK and Poland games which close at 7pm tomorrow:

    http://www.electiongame.co.uk/uk15/

    http://www.electiongame.co.uk/poland15/

    UK - make sure you complete ALL SECTIONS (new govt is optional) or your entry won't count!

    Poland - your predicted winner should have >50%

    Thanks!

    DC

    I've gone for both Lab and Con Gov't on the election game - a somewhat tactical entry on minority Gov't ;)
  • Daniel
    Daniel Posts: 160
    Scott_P said:

    Sky are running a story about Lucy Powell claiming the the pledges on Ed's giant headstone might not actually be kept..

    BBC have been running it, too.
  • murali_s
    murali_s Posts: 3,084
    BenM said:

    Top trolling OGH!

    Haha yes. The way he winds up the right-wing fruitcakes is legendary!
  • dyedwoolie
    dyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Carnyx said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    If Lynton Crosby's bowel movement occurs before the polls open on GE day, it will mean Labour take the house. Remember in 2012 he just took a leak and left his poo poo till lunchtime and Boris took city hall.
    Meanwhile Lib Dem incumbency is predicted to be a billion times higher than any previous election and therefore Ed will be PM.
    Remarkable,

    Do you mean, he does a Dr Gillian McKeith selfie? How extraordinary ...

    There is a correlation between the consistency of crap and the outcome of GEs, it's part of YouGovs spiral of diarrhoea adjustment
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,077
    Sunil Prasannan ‏@Sunil_P2 · 13s13 seconds ago
    #Conservatives % scores in Electoral LeaderBoard Of the Week (ELBOW),split into Phone and Online polls update 1st May

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/595576937180987393
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Roger said:

    Based on a sample of five my final poll is as follows;

    Consrvatives 302 seats

    Labour 255

    Lib Dem 30

    SNP 30

    Others whatever's left

    The polling breakdown is as follows;

    Conservative 3 (the first because he doesn't think it's a good idea to chop and change. The second because he doesn't like the SNP and the third because she likes 33 hours childcare bribe )

    UKIP 1 (Because she likes Farage's policy on smoking)

    Labour 1 (Me)

    Lib Dem 0

    Therefore



    Well you called the Indyref right, so I'm hopeful you've called the GE right.
    Knock 20 off the Labour score and add it to the SNP, ta.
  • Plato
    Plato Posts: 15,724
    I think we should find tenuous links between things and people called Lynton.

    Lynton Christie appears to have disappeared ENTIRELY from the Interweb. As a result of a European law ruling. Is that one of those Right To Be Forgotten thingies?
    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    Plato said:

    What precisely has Lynton Crosby got to do with polling accuracy. Have I missed something?

    Possible evidence of the alleged baby eating tory monsters that want to shut down the NHS immediately and bring back children to clean chimneys?
  • richardDodd
    richardDodd Posts: 5,472
    Lucy Powell should find a small discreet pub somewhere and order some large ones..She said what she said..we all heard it .. saying some other things afterwards does not diminish what she said..Why is she even attempting to blame everybody else for her mistake..Is this what Labour do.. .
  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    Plato said:

    I think we should find tenuous links between things and people called Lynton.

    Lynton Christie appears to have disappeared ENTIRELY from the Interweb. As a result of a European law ruling. Is that one of those Right To Be Forgotten thingies?

    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    Plato said:

    What precisely has Lynton Crosby got to do with polling accuracy. Have I missed something?

    Possible evidence of the alleged baby eating tory monsters that want to shut down the NHS immediately and bring back children to clean chimneys?
    Try Linford
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    Lucy Powell is one of those rare politicians where I find the opponent's caricature of her ineptness is actually somewhat close to her actual ineptness.
  • AllyPally_Rob
    AllyPally_Rob Posts: 605
    edited May 2015
    Bob__Sykes said:

    SeanT said:

    AllyPally_Rob said:

    I think the EdStone has claimed the mantle of Daftest campaign moment by a mile. What a stupid idiotic clusterf*ck of an idea (and i say that as a Lab voter).

    Any other nominations for this accolade? The Tory promise to outlaw tax rises was another bonkers idea, but not in the same league as the EdStone IMHO. It just reminds me of those terrifying Aids adverts in the 80s!

    The EdStone wasn't just the daftest moment of this election, it was the daftest moment in any election, ever, and none of us here shall see its like, in our lifetimes.

    It might even be the Daftest Moment in human history, comparable only with the day Mad Queen Ravalona 1 of Madagascar ordered the construction of an enormous pair of scissors so she could the marching armies of her enemies in two*.

    *True story.
    I'm consoling myself with the thought that if (when) Ed does become PM, he might actually build this damned thing.

    I think the Tory leader of Westminster Council who seemed to pooh-pooh it at the weekend on planning grounds should make sure there are no obstacles put in PM Miliband's way, and that appropriate pressure is put on No 10 to make this plan come to fruition.
    I think it all has the makings of a Ground Force reunion TV special...

    'Alan Titchmarsh and the team transform Downing Street gardens into a replica of Highgate Cemetery, complete with Karl Marx memorial, Jeremy Beadle's grave and of course the EdStone.'
  • Carnyx
    Carnyx Posts: 44,654
    dyedwoolie said:

    Carnyx said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    If Lynton Crosby's bowel movement occurs before the polls open on GE day, it will mean Labour take the house. Remember in 2012 he just took a leak and left his poo poo till lunchtime and Boris took city hall.
    Meanwhile Lib Dem incumbency is predicted to be a billion times higher than any previous election and therefore Ed will be PM.
    Remarkable,

    Do you mean, he does a Dr Gillian McKeith selfie? How extraordinary ...

    There is a correlation between the consistency of crap and the outcome of GEs, it's part of YouGovs spiral of diarrhoea adjustment
    Not to mention the brown spiral when it is rather less runny, I suppose. (OK, won't make any more poo jokes. But I've never recovered from coming across Dr McKeith's TV show by accident one day.)

  • dyedwoolie
    dyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Lucy has managed to ensure the penultimate day of the campaign is all about Labours inability to honour pledges. What's tomorrow's plan? Balls to announce he he never liked Ed and there will be a coup as soon as he is in no 10? Brown to announce a vote for Labour is a vote for me to become PM again? Tom Watson farts on a baby's face?
  • john_zims
    john_zims Posts: 3,399
    @Beverley_C

    'Interesting that Survation & Populus got Labour so wrong and yet they seem to be amongst the polls more favourable to Labour this time.'


    Whose going to be the Angus Reid of 2015?
  • Plato
    Plato Posts: 15,724
    edited May 2015
    Wikipedia "The page "Linford christie" does not exist. You can ask for it to be created, but consider checking the search results below to see whether the topic is already covered."

    Digging into Wiki I can find it but no other reference using a search engine. I've never tripped across one of these before. Its very thorough.
    isam said:

    Plato said:

    I think we should find tenuous links between things and people called Lynton.

    Lynton Christie appears to have disappeared ENTIRELY from the Interweb. As a result of a European law ruling. Is that one of those Right To Be Forgotten thingies?

    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    Plato said:

    What precisely has Lynton Crosby got to do with polling accuracy. Have I missed something?

    Possible evidence of the alleged baby eating tory monsters that want to shut down the NHS immediately and bring back children to clean chimneys?
    Try Linford
  • Stereotomy
    Stereotomy Posts: 4,092
    isam said:

    Plato said:

    I think we should find tenuous links between things and people called Lynton.

    Lynton Christie appears to have disappeared ENTIRELY from the Interweb. As a result of a European law ruling. Is that one of those Right To Be Forgotten thingies?

    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    Plato said:

    What precisely has Lynton Crosby got to do with polling accuracy. Have I missed something?

    Possible evidence of the alleged baby eating tory monsters that want to shut down the NHS immediately and bring back children to clean chimneys?
    Try Linford
    Also I can't find Lynton soup in any supermarkets any more.
  • Razedabode
    Razedabode Posts: 3,117
    What has Lynton Crosby got to do with the performance of the polls? Has he infiltrated / sabotaged our pollsters?
  • Carnyx
    Carnyx Posts: 44,654
    SeanT said:

    Bob__Sykes said:

    SeanT said:

    AllyPally_Rob said:

    I think the EdStone has claimed the mantle of Daftest campaign moment by a mile. What a stupid idiotic clusterf*ck of an idea (and i say that as a Lab voter).

    Any other nominations for this accolade? The Tory promise to outlaw tax rises was another bonkers idea, but not in the same league as the EdStone IMHO. It just reminds me of those terrifying Aids adverts in the 80s!

    The EdStone wasn't just the daftest moment of this election, it was the daftest moment in any election, ever, and none of us here shall see its like, in our lifetimes.

    It might even be the Daftest Moment in human history, comparable only with the day Mad Queen Ravalona 1 of Madagascar ordered the construction of an enormous pair of scissors so she could the marching armies of her enemies in two*.

    *True story.
    I'm consoling myself with the thought that if (when) Ed does become PM, he might actually build this damned thing.

    I think the Tory leader of Westminster Council who seemed to pooh-pooh it at the weekend on planning grounds should make sure there are no obstacles put in PM Miliband's way, and that appropriate pressure is put on No 10 to make this plan come to fruition.
    He's already built the stone. It already exists. It is eight and a half foot high.

    If he wins it is going to be the most Embarrassing Artefact in the Observable Universe. He will have to put it *somewhere*, otherwise he'll get journalists shouting Where's the Stone, Show us the Stone, at every press conference. And the press will want to compare his achievements with his pledges so carefully inscribed on the Stele of Governance (7th Labour Dynasty).

    But where the F does he put it? Every other instinct will be telling them to hide it away somewhere very very remote, because every time Labour MPs and activists look at it they slightly die, inside.
    In orbit around Jupiter?

    It's getting a bit like 2001 crossed with Red Dwarf ...



  • Beverley_C
    Beverley_C Posts: 6,256
    edited May 2015
    In other important election news and trends, the shoes in my avatar met with a mishap on the Manchester Metrolink last week and are beyond repair. This deterioration of the transport infrastructure has taken place on the Tory watch and therefore the Tories are unfit to govern.
  • Alanbrooke
    Alanbrooke Posts: 25,926
    SeanT said:

    Bob__Sykes said:

    SeanT said:

    AllyPally_Rob said:

    I think the EdStone has claimed the mantle of Daftest campaign moment by a mile. What a stupid idiotic clusterf*ck of an idea (and i say that as a Lab voter).

    Any other nominations for this accolade? The Tory promise to outlaw tax rises was another bonkers idea, but not in the same league as the EdStone IMHO. It just reminds me of those terrifying Aids adverts in the 80s!

    The EdStone wasn't just the daftest moment of this election, it was the daftest moment in any election, ever, and none of us here shall see its like, in our lifetimes.

    It might even be the Daftest Moment in human history, comparable only with the day Mad Queen Ravalona 1 of Madagascar ordered the construction of an enormous pair of scissors so she could the marching armies of her enemies in two*.

    *True story.
    I'm consoling myself with the thought that if (when) Ed does become PM, he might actually build this damned thing.

    I think the Tory leader of Westminster Council who seemed to pooh-pooh it at the weekend on planning grounds should make sure there are no obstacles put in PM Miliband's way, and that appropriate pressure is put on No 10 to make this plan come to fruition.
    He's already built the stone. It already exists. It is eight and a half foot high.

    If he wins it is going to be the most Embarrassing Artefact in the Observable Universe. He will have to put it *somewhere*, otherwise he'll get journalists shouting Where's the Stone, Show us the Stone, at every press conference. And the press will want to compare his achievements with his pledges so carefully inscribed on the Stele of Governance (7th Labour Dynasty).

    But where the F does he put it? Every other instinct will be telling them to hide it away somewhere very very remote, because every time Labour MPs and activists look at it they slightly die, inside.
    maybe he could stuff it in the back of Harman's pink van, parked out of sight. Like the van.
  • botanically_speaking
    botanically_speaking Posts: 87
    SeanT said:

    Bob__Sykes said:

    SeanT said:

    AllyPally_Rob said:

    I think the EdStone has claimed the mantle of Daftest campaign moment by a mile. What a stupid idiotic clusterf*ck of an idea (and i say that as a Lab voter).

    Any other nominations for this accolade? The Tory promise to outlaw tax rises was another bonkers idea, but not in the same league as the EdStone IMHO. It just reminds me of those terrifying Aids adverts in the 80s!

    The EdStone wasn't just the daftest moment of this election, it was the daftest moment in any election, ever, and none of us here shall see its like, in our lifetimes.

    It might even be the Daftest Moment in human history, comparable only with the day Mad Queen Ravalona 1 of Madagascar ordered the construction of an enormous pair of scissors so she could the marching armies of her enemies in two*.

    *True story.
    I'm consoling myself with the thought that if (when) Ed does become PM, he might actually build this damned thing.

    I think the Tory leader of Westminster Council who seemed to pooh-pooh it at the weekend on planning grounds should make sure there are no obstacles put in PM Miliband's way, and that appropriate pressure is put on No 10 to make this plan come to fruition.
    He's already built the stone. It already exists. It is eight and a half foot high.

    If he wins it is going to be the most Embarrassing Artefact in the Observable Universe. He will have to put it *somewhere*, otherwise he'll get journalists shouting Where's the Stone, Show us the Stone, at every press conference. And the press will want to compare his achievements with his pledges so carefully inscribed on the Stele of Governance (7th Labour Dynasty).

    But where the F does he put it? Every other instinct will be telling them to hide it away somewhere very very remote, because every time Labour MPs and activists look at it they slightly die, inside.
    Is there still a spare plinth at Trafalgar Square? Visible from Whitehall, yet open to the public and tourists alike.

  • dyedwoolie
    dyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Carnyx said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    Carnyx said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    If Lynton Crosby's bowel movement occurs before the polls open on GE day, it will mean Labour take the house. Remember in 2012 he just took a leak and left his poo poo till lunchtime and Boris took city hall.
    Meanwhile Lib Dem incumbency is predicted to be a billion times higher than any previous election and therefore Ed will be PM.
    Remarkable,

    Do you mean, he does a Dr Gillian McKeith selfie? How extraordinary ...

    There is a correlation between the consistency of crap and the outcome of GEs, it's part of YouGovs spiral of diarrhoea adjustment
    Not to mention the brown spiral when it is rather less runny, I suppose. (OK, won't make any more poo jokes. But I've never recovered from coming across Dr McKeith's TV show by accident one day.)

    Walnut whip for welsh nationalists
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    My prediction for the result shifts in its precise numbers all the time even though my outcome prediction is the same, I just have trouble squaring the numbers to how I feel each party will do. That said,

    Lab 280
    Con 267
    SNP 50
    LD 27
    PC 4
    UKIP 3
    Green 1

    If any of that is to change it would be Lab doing better in Scotland, though I also think, paradoxically, that I might be underestimating Con a little.

    End result seems certain to be a Lab government of some form. Chaotic and difficult, only a question of if it collapses in 2016 when the SNP-Lab bar brawl for Scotland reignites anew, or if it surprises us all and carries on even so.
  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    edited May 2015
    Plato said:

    Wikipedia "The page "Linford christie" does not exist. You can ask for it to be created, but consider checking the search results below to see whether the topic is already covered."

    isam said:

    Plato said:

    I think we should find tenuous links between things and people called Lynton.

    Lynton Christie appears to have disappeared ENTIRELY from the Interweb. As a result of a European law ruling. Is that one of those Right To Be Forgotten thingies?

    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    Plato said:

    What precisely has Lynton Crosby got to do with polling accuracy. Have I missed something?

    Possible evidence of the alleged baby eating tory monsters that want to shut down the NHS immediately and bring back children to clean chimneys?
    Try Linford
    Im getting a black bloke who runs fast.. lucky me!

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Linford_Christie

    At he peak of his powers Linford Christie went to his local golf club for 18 holes.. when he got to reception, the bloke said "Sorry mate we don't let black people play on this course"

    "What???!" exclaimed the outraged sprinter

    "I know it sounds old fashioned but them's the rules.. Don't worry there's a course 10 minutes away that allows black people to play"

    "But I am Linford Christie..."

    "Alright, 5 minutes away"
  • Carnyx
    Carnyx Posts: 44,654
    dyedwoolie said:

    Carnyx said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    Carnyx said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    If Lynton Crosby's bowel movement occurs before the polls open on GE day, it will mean Labour take the house. Remember in 2012 he just took a leak and left his poo poo till lunchtime and Boris took city hall.
    Meanwhile Lib Dem incumbency is predicted to be a billion times higher than any previous election and therefore Ed will be PM.
    Remarkable,

    Do you mean, he does a Dr Gillian McKeith selfie? How extraordinary ...

    There is a correlation between the consistency of crap and the outcome of GEs, it's part of YouGovs spiral of diarrhoea adjustment
    Not to mention the brown spiral when it is rather less runny, I suppose. (OK, won't make any more poo jokes. But I've never recovered from coming across Dr McKeith's TV show by accident one day.)

    Walnut whip for welsh nationalists
    Sorry, you've lost me ...

  • Life_ina_market_town
    Life_ina_market_town Posts: 2,319
    Neil said:

    Interesting article from the NY TImes on campaign finance in the UK:

    If only for showing the absurdity of the present restrictions on campaign finance; the logical result of which is Part 2 of the Transparency of Lobbying, Non-Party Campaigning and Trade Union Administration Act 2014.
  • Plato
    Plato Posts: 15,724
    Someone mentioned this FPT - this is the pix I think he referred to from Raiders of the Lost Ark.

    https://twitter.com/philipjcowley/status/594784366817103872/photo/1
    SeanT said:

    Bob__Sykes said:

    SeanT said:

    AllyPally_Rob said:

    I think the EdStone has claimed the mantle of Daftest campaign moment by a mile. What a stupid idiotic clusterf*ck of an idea (and i say that as a Lab voter).

    Any other nominations for this accolade? The Tory promise to outlaw tax rises was another bonkers idea, but not in the same league as the EdStone IMHO. It just reminds me of those terrifying Aids adverts in the 80s!

    The EdStone wasn't just the daftest moment of this election, it was the daftest moment in any election, ever, and none of us here shall see its like, in our lifetimes.

    It might even be the Daftest Moment in human history, comparable only with the day Mad Queen Ravalona 1 of Madagascar ordered the construction of an enormous pair of scissors so she could the marching armies of her enemies in two*.

    *True story.
    I'm consoling myself with the thought that if (when) Ed does become PM, he might actually build this damned thing.

    I think the Tory leader of Westminster Council who seemed to pooh-pooh it at the weekend on planning grounds should make sure there are no obstacles put in PM Miliband's way, and that appropriate pressure is put on No 10 to make this plan come to fruition.
    He's already built the stone. It already exists. It is eight and a half foot high.

    If he wins it is going to be the most Embarrassing Artefact in the Observable Universe. He will have to put it *somewhere*, otherwise he'll get journalists shouting Where's the Stone, Show us the Stone, at every press conference. And the press will want to compare his achievements with his pledges so carefully inscribed on the Stele of Governance (7th Labour Dynasty).

    But where the F does he put it? Every other instinct will be telling them to hide it away somewhere very very remote, because every time Labour MPs and activists look at it they slightly die, inside.
  • dyedwoolie
    dyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Carnyx said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    Carnyx said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    Carnyx said:

    dyedwoolie said:

    If Lynton Crosby's bowel movement occurs before the polls open on GE day, it will mean Labour take the house. Remember in 2012 he just took a leak and left his poo poo till lunchtime and Boris took city hall.
    Meanwhile Lib Dem incumbency is predicted to be a billion times higher than any previous election and therefore Ed will be PM.
    Remarkable,

    Do you mean, he does a Dr Gillian McKeith selfie? How extraordinary ...

    There is a correlation between the consistency of crap and the outcome of GEs, it's part of YouGovs spiral of diarrhoea adjustment
    Not to mention the brown spiral when it is rather less runny, I suppose. (OK, won't make any more poo jokes. But I've never recovered from coming across Dr McKeith's TV show by accident one day.)

    Walnut whip for welsh nationalists
    Sorry, you've lost me ...

    I'm clearly deeper in the gutter than I imagined!
  • currystar
    currystar Posts: 1,171
    Doesn't the London result just show that pollsters are sometimes wrong?
  • Daniel
    Daniel Posts: 160
    Lucy Powell has deleted her tweet, calling someone a white supremacist. Also, looks like someone has taken her phone or keyboard from her, too.
  • logical_song
    logical_song Posts: 10,082
    SeanT said:

    Bob__Sykes said:

    SeanT said:

    AllyPally_Rob said:

    I think the EdStone has claimed the mantle of Daftest campaign moment by a mile. What a stupid idiotic clusterf*ck of an idea (and i say that as a Lab voter).

    Any other nominations for this accolade? The Tory promise to outlaw tax rises was another bonkers idea, but not in the same league as the EdStone IMHO. It just reminds me of those terrifying Aids adverts in the 80s!

    The EdStone wasn't just the daftest moment of this election, it was the daftest moment in any election, ever, and none of us here shall see its like, in our lifetimes.

    It might even be the Daftest Moment in human history, comparable only with the day Mad Queen Ravalona 1 of Madagascar ordered the construction of an enormous pair of scissors so she could the marching armies of her enemies in two*.

    *True story.
    I'm consoling myself with the thought that if (when) Ed does become PM, he might actually build this damned thing.

    I think the Tory leader of Westminster Council who seemed to pooh-pooh it at the weekend on planning grounds should make sure there are no obstacles put in PM Miliband's way, and that appropriate pressure is put on No 10 to make this plan come to fruition.
    He's already built the stone. It already exists. It is eight and a half foot high.

    If he wins it is going to be the most Embarrassing Artefact in the Observable Universe. He will have to put it *somewhere*, otherwise he'll get journalists shouting Where's the Stone, Show us the Stone, at every press conference. And the press will want to compare his achievements with his pledges so carefully inscribed on the Stele of Governance (7th Labour Dynasty).

    But where the F does he put it? Every other instinct will be telling them to hide it away somewhere very very remote, because every time Labour MPs and activists look at it they slightly die, inside.
    Give it to the Scots to place next to the Stone of Scone, only to be returned for Labour Party 'coronations'.
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    @politicshome: Lucy Powell accuses Tories in row over 'EdStone' http://t.co/A2ISq3nHQy http://t.co/c0fveBya6r

    "Those bastard Tories, they took the words I actually said live on the radio and showed them to other people..."
  • chestnut
    chestnut Posts: 7,341
    Look at who the worst pollsters are.

    Opinium the best, and they've had the Tories solidly ahead for a couple of months now.
  • Plato
    Plato Posts: 15,724
    Black Sabbath were supposedly the source of the Spinal Tap Stonehenge joke. They left theirs in the back of a trailer in a lay-by.
    Alanbrooke said:

    SeanT said:

    Bob__Sykes said:

    SeanT said:

    AllyPally_Rob said:

    I think the EdStone has claimed the mantle of Daftest campaign moment by a mile. What a stupid idiotic clusterf*ck of an idea (and i say that as a Lab voter).

    Any other nominations for this accolade? The Tory promise to outlaw tax rises was another bonkers idea, but not in the same league as the EdStone IMHO. It just reminds me of those terrifying Aids adverts in the 80s!

    The EdStone wasn't just the daftest moment of this election, it was the daftest moment in any election, ever, and none of us here shall see its like, in our lifetimes.

    It might even be the Daftest Moment in human history, comparable only with the day Mad Queen Ravalona 1 of Madagascar ordered the construction of an enormous pair of scissors so she could the marching armies of her enemies in two*.

    *True story.
    I'm consoling myself with the thought that if (when) Ed does become PM, he might actually build this damned thing.

    I think the Tory leader of Westminster Council who seemed to pooh-pooh it at the weekend on planning grounds should make sure there are no obstacles put in PM Miliband's way, and that appropriate pressure is put on No 10 to make this plan come to fruition.
    He's already built the stone. It already exists. It is eight and a half foot high.

    If he wins it is going to be the most Embarrassing Artefact in the Observable Universe. He will have to put it *somewhere*, otherwise he'll get journalists shouting Where's the Stone, Show us the Stone, at every press conference. And the press will want to compare his achievements with his pledges so carefully inscribed on the Stele of Governance (7th Labour Dynasty).

    But where the F does he put it? Every other instinct will be telling them to hide it away somewhere very very remote, because every time Labour MPs and activists look at it they slightly die, inside.
    maybe he could stuff it in the back of Harman's pink van, parked out of sight. Like the van.
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    logical_song said:

    Give it to the Scots to place next to the Stone of Scone, only to be returned for Labour Party 'coronations'.

    Someone on Twitter did suggest some "Scottish students" should kidnap it, for a lark.
  • Financier
    Financier Posts: 3,916
    SeanT said:

    Bob__Sykes said:

    SeanT said:

    AllyPally_Rob said:

    I think the EdStone has claimed the mantle of Daftest campaign moment by a mile. What a stupid idiotic clusterf*ck of an idea (and i say that as a Lab voter).

    Any other nominations for this accolade? The Tory promise to outlaw tax rises was another bonkers idea, but not in the same league as the EdStone IMHO. It just reminds me of those terrifying Aids adverts in the 80s!

    The EdStone wasn't just the daftest moment of this election, it was the daftest moment in any election, ever, and none of us here shall see its like, in our lifetimes.

    It might even be the Daftest Moment in human history, comparable only with the day Mad Queen Ravalona 1 of Madagascar ordered the construction of an enormous pair of scissors so she could the marching armies of her enemies in two*.

    *True story.
    I'm consoling myself with the thought that if (when) Ed does become PM, he might actually build this damned thing.

    I think the Tory leader of Westminster Council who seemed to pooh-pooh it at the weekend on planning grounds should make sure there are no obstacles put in PM Miliband's way, and that appropriate pressure is put on No 10 to make this plan come to fruition.
    He's already built the stone. It already exists. It is eight and a half foot high.

    If he wins it is going to be the most Embarrassing Artefact in the Observable Universe. He will have to put it *somewhere*, otherwise he'll get journalists shouting Where's the Stone, Show us the Stone, at every press conference. And the press will want to compare his achievements with his pledges so carefully inscribed on the Stele of Governance (7th Labour Dynasty).

    But where the F does he put it? Every other instinct will be telling them to hide it away somewhere very very remote, because every time Labour MPs and activists look at it they slightly die, inside.
    It is his ready-made grave stone - all ready for his Co-oP funeral.
  • murali_s
    murali_s Posts: 3,084
    Does anyone have links to the links to the two PB GE 2015 competitions?
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Greater London electorate:

    2010 general election: 5,265,197
    1st December 2014: 5,183,157
  • dyedwoolie
    dyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Maybe there could be an EdStone with 6 requests for dinner he can point to when Justine is cooking

    I feel Like Chicken Tonight
    Will it be chips or jacket spuds, will it be salad or frozen peas?
    Bring on the Branston
    So Maggi (!)
    Milk has got a lotta bottle, nice cold, ice cold milk
    That's why Justines gone to Iceland
  • Beverley_C
    Beverley_C Posts: 6,256
    edited May 2015
    SeanT said:


    He's already built the stone. It already exists. It is eight and a half foot high.

    ....

    But where the F does he put it? Every other instinct will be telling them to hide it away somewhere very very remote, because every time Labour MPs and activists look at it they slightly die, inside.


    image
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    I said yesterday that the Bow group is a total embarrassment.

    Andrew Brillo goes all Lysimachus at Ipsus on the President of the Bow Group

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y7AQlMp5y7E
  • CarlottaVance
    CarlottaVance Posts: 60,422
    SeanT said:

    Bob__Sykes said:

    SeanT said:

    AllyPally_Rob said:

    I think the EdStone has claimed the mantle of Daftest campaign moment by a mile. What a stupid idiotic clusterf*ck of an idea (and i say that as a Lab voter).

    Any other nominations for this accolade? The Tory promise to outlaw tax rises was another bonkers idea, but not in the same league as the EdStone IMHO. It just reminds me of those terrifying Aids adverts in the 80s!

    The EdStone wasn't just the daftest moment of this election, it was the daftest moment in any election, ever, and none of us here shall see its like, in our lifetimes.

    It might even be the Daftest Moment in human history, comparable only with the day Mad Queen Ravalona 1 of Madagascar ordered the construction of an enormous pair of scissors so she could the marching armies of her enemies in two*.

    *True story.
    I'm consoling myself with the thought that if (when) Ed does become PM, he might actually build this damned thing.

    I think the Tory leader of Westminster Council who seemed to pooh-pooh it at the weekend on planning grounds should make sure there are no obstacles put in PM Miliband's way, and that appropriate pressure is put on No 10 to make this plan come to fruition.
    He's already built the stone. It already exists. It is eight and a half foot high.
    At a cost of £30,000, according to some reports....

  • Plato
    Plato Posts: 15,724
    electiongame.co.uk/uk15/
    murali_s said:

    Does anyone have links to the links to the two PB GE 2015 competitions?

  • Moses_
    Moses_ Posts: 4,865

    Here in St Ives Cornwall and David Cameron is shortly to arrive at the town Hall apparently...

    Going to every end of the country by the looks
  • Carnyx
    Carnyx Posts: 44,654
    CarlottaVance said:

    SeanT said:

    Bob__Sykes said:

    SeanT said:

    AllyPally_Rob said:

    I think the EdStone has claimed the mantle of Daftest campaign moment by a mile. What a stupid idiotic clusterf*ck of an idea (and i say that as a Lab voter).

    Any other nominations for this accolade? The Tory promise to outlaw tax rises was another bonkers idea, but not in the same league as the EdStone IMHO. It just reminds me of those terrifying Aids adverts in the 80s!

    The EdStone wasn't just the daftest moment of this election, it was the daftest moment in any election, ever, and none of us here shall see its like, in our lifetimes.

    It might even be the Daftest Moment in human history, comparable only with the day Mad Queen Ravalona 1 of Madagascar ordered the construction of an enormous pair of scissors so she could the marching armies of her enemies in two*.

    *True story.
    I'm consoling myself with the thought that if (when) Ed does become PM, he might actually build this damned thing.

    I think the Tory leader of Westminster Council who seemed to pooh-pooh it at the weekend on planning grounds should make sure there are no obstacles put in PM Miliband's way, and that appropriate pressure is put on No 10 to make this plan come to fruition.
    He's already built the stone. It already exists. It is eight and a half foot high.
    At a cost of £30,000, according to some reports....

    De we know what stone it is? From mu limited experience of commissioning such things 30K smackers seems rather too much. Did they have to reopen the quarry or something?

  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2015
    “Asked on BBC 5 live if carving them in stone made them more believable, Ms Powell said: “I don’t think anyone is suggesting that the fact that he’s carved them into stone means that he is absolutely not going to break them or anything like that.””

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-32592235
  • murali_s
    murali_s Posts: 3,084
    Plato said:

    electiongame.co.uk/uk15/

    murali_s said:

    Does anyone have links to the links to the two PB GE 2015 competitions?

    Thanks but not that one. I'm talking about the official PB ones...
  • glw
    glw Posts: 10,463
    botanically_speaking said:

    SeanT said:

    Bob__Sykes said:

    SeanT said:

    AllyPally_Rob said:

    I think the EdStone has claimed the mantle of Daftest campaign moment by a mile. What a stupid idiotic clusterf*ck of an idea (and i say that as a Lab voter).

    Any other nominations for this accolade? The Tory promise to outlaw tax rises was another bonkers idea, but not in the same league as the EdStone IMHO. It just reminds me of those terrifying Aids adverts in the 80s!

    The EdStone wasn't just the daftest moment of this election, it was the daftest moment in any election, ever, and none of us here shall see its like, in our lifetimes.

    It might even be the Daftest Moment in human history, comparable only with the day Mad Queen Ravalona 1 of Madagascar ordered the construction of an enormous pair of scissors so she could the marching armies of her enemies in two*.

    *True story.
    I'm consoling myself with the thought that if (when) Ed does become PM, he might actually build this damned thing.

    I think the Tory leader of Westminster Council who seemed to pooh-pooh it at the weekend on planning grounds should make sure there are no obstacles put in PM Miliband's way, and that appropriate pressure is put on No 10 to make this plan come to fruition.
    He's already built the stone. It already exists. It is eight and a half foot high.

    If he wins it is going to be the most Embarrassing Artefact in the Observable Universe. He will have to put it *somewhere*, otherwise he'll get journalists shouting Where's the Stone, Show us the Stone, at every press conference. And the press will want to compare his achievements with his pledges so carefully inscribed on the Stele of Governance (7th Labour Dynasty).

    But where the F does he put it? Every other instinct will be telling them to hide it away somewhere very very remote, because every time Labour MPs and activists look at it they slightly die, inside.
    Is there still a spare plinth at Trafalgar Square? Visible from Whitehall, yet open to the public and tourists alike.

    I wonder if they will allow visiting dignitaries to do a photo op in front of Ed's mighty stone of promises? I can just see Vlad, eyebrows raised, tightly gripping Ed's hand in front of the monolith.

  • chestnut
    chestnut Posts: 7,341
    Has anyone got the Tower Hamlets numbers for the mayoral election??
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    CarlottaVance said:

    At a cost of £30,000, according to some reports....

    Did he keep the receipt?
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    There are plenty of the Labour front bench who I am fine with occupying positions of power - including Ed, Edstone weirdness notwithstanding - but please tell me Lucy Powell will not actually be getting into high office. She seems to have the absolutely worse temperament for being challenged by anyone I have ever seen, and her ability to contradict herself is extraordinary.
  • Luckyguy1983
    Luckyguy1983 Posts: 32,090
    Even the design of the stone says a lot about Labour. A vast, ugly, impersonal oblong imposed upon the landscape like a tower block. Say what you like about the Tories (and I do) at least if they'd engraved their pledges on stone it would be on a tastefully weathered bird bath or something.
  • weejonnie
    weejonnie Posts: 3,820
    AndyJS said:

    Greater London electorate:

    2010 general election: 5,265,197
    1st December 2014: 5,183,157

    I am starting to wonder about this - presumably several hundred thousand might have registered since then, but are a few virtual electors dropping off?
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,077
    Beverley_C said:

    SeanT said:


    He's already built the stone. It already exists. It is eight and a half foot high.

    ....

    But where the F does he put it? Every other instinct will be telling them to hide it away somewhere very very remote, because every time Labour MPs and activists look at it they slightly die, inside.


    image
    "Just what do you think you're doing, Dave!" - ED 10,000
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    I nearly did the Sunday afternoon thread on the EdStone.

    I now regret not doing so.
  • Beverley_C
    Beverley_C Posts: 6,256
    Carnyx said:


    De we know what stone it is? From mu limited experience of commissioning such things 30K smackers seems rather too much. Did they have to reopen the quarry or something?

    What does price matter? It is Labour.... just print a bit more or tax somebody.
  • Plato
    Plato Posts: 15,724
    It is - the official Election Game one.
    murali_s said:

    Plato said:

    electiongame.co.uk/uk15/

    murali_s said:

    Does anyone have links to the links to the two PB GE 2015 competitions?

    Thanks but not that one. I'm talking about the official PB ones...
  • Moses_
    Moses_ Posts: 4,865
    Moses_ said:


    Here in St Ives Cornwall and David Cameron is shortly to arrive at the town Hall apparently...

    Going to every end of the country by the looks

    I believe this is a Marginal seat here so falls in the meme of this mornings comments. This visit was not known about apparently according to local shopkeeper but the press starting to build up now as he was due at 1400 ...ish

    If he goes any further from here he will be at lands end.
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