politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The YouGov poll at this point in the 2010 race got the CON-
Comments
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I think Duffy went on to vote for Brown, and Rochdale was one of the few Labour gains of 2010 (along with Chesterfield).Bob__Sykes said:
It's a "Thick of It" moment which resonates with folk like us, but passes by most people - like The Thick of It did itself.AndyJS said:Ed's stones was the moment I knew he'd never be PM.
I remember that fantastic afternoon on here when Brown had his Gillian Duffy "disaster", the highlight of GE2010 for many of us, yet it resonated nothing with voters. Indeed, it may have caused Brown to get a sympathy uplift.0 -
Mr. T, perhaps. Mood music's a better guide in F1 pre-season testing, because everyone sandbags if fast, and does low-furl, high-speed runs if they need sponsors.0
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All the above (fingers crossed, touch wood, etc.) Good job I only bet in my head, innit?SeanT said:Can someone explain to me in short, pithy sentences, why so many esteemed pb-ers are predicting a Tory plurality ...
What are they pinning their hopes/fears on? Tory incumbency? Canvass returns? The betting markets? Tory out-performance in the marginals? Superiority of phone polls? A good hard stare into the scrying glass?
Que?
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Is the Sheffield effect in any way evidenced? ie. we know the Sheffield rally was kind of awkward, but is there any verified connection between that event and the delta between poll and actual votes? Because if we're just using it as shorthand for "the polls woz wrong" then extrapolating that that wrongness depresses the Labour vote seems optimistic. Why couldn't the Tory vote be subject to the same problem?Ishmael_X said:
An effect which is by definition invisible in polls, is invisible in a poll? Golly.Pulpstar said:
There is no "Sheffield effect" for Labour evident in the ICM poll.Ishmael_X said:
2. The Sheffield effect, the point of which has always been that it doesn't show up in the polls, only at the moment of truth in the polling booth.
Labour on THIRTY SEVEN % in Hallam is a very strong indicator that they're doing quite well tbh.
Hallam is simply not the sort of place Labour should be picking up 37%.
Genuine question btw, I was quite young in 92.0 -
Huge down weighting of UKIP on Populus raw numbers from 273 to 218 to take it from 15% to 13% to join the herd.Virtually no move on the raw numbers from the last poll.0
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Precisely my thinking too.OblitusSumMe said:
My reasons are:SeanT said:Can someone explain to me in short, pithy sentences, why so many esteemed pb-ers are predicting a Tory plurality when the majority of the polls indicate a Labour plurality, even and despite Scotland?
What are they pinning their hopes/fears on? Tory incumbency? Canvass returns? The betting markets? Tory out-performance in the marginals? Superiority of phone polls? A good hard stare into the scrying glass?
Que?
1. Superiority of phone polls.
2. Not a "change" election - eg more people still blame Labour for cuts, favour Tories on economic management, etc.
3. More Lib Dem seats are vulnerable to Tory challengers than Labour.
4. Scotland wipeout and differential Lib Dem gains imply a target of 50 Labour gains from Tories to reach parity, which is not supported by Ashcroft marginal polling.
5. Some plausible UKIP gains - eg Thurrock, Thanet South - are in Conservative seats that would have been likely Labour gains in UKIPs absence, so are in some sense Labour losses when you look at their target list.
6. History of Labour losing vote share in election after being ejected from government - see 1955, 1974 (Feb) and 1983.0 -
Taking 32 seats from Lab to SNP, I only get a seat difference of 80. So unless Con are going to get 20 more seats from LD than Lab are, which seems unlikely, that sounds too high.OblitusSumMe said:
4. Scotland wipeout and differential Lib Dem gains imply a target of 50 Labour gains from Tories to reach parity, which is not supported by Ashcroft marginal polling.
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Question: How many GB constituencies include islands? Anyone care to list them?0
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Midlands swing from Con to Lab down to 1.4% in last two Populus polls.
SE swing down from 6.5% to 4.7%
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rcs2000 no, in 2011 at Holyrood the SNP won 45% the Tories 13% across Scotland, so not far off present polls. The Tories and Lamont won 44% in Berwickshire the SNP 26%, however the SNP won 2 of the 3 seats which comprise Dumfrieshire at Westminster, Clydesdale and Midlothian and Tweedale, while Labour won Dumfrieshire itself, so I would expect Westminster to follow the Holyrood pattern and the Tories gain Berwickshire but lose Dumfrieshire0
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Yns MonSandyRentool said:Question: How many GB constituencies include islands? Anyone care to list them?
Western Isles
O&S
Argyll & Bute
Isle of Wight
North Ayrshire Arran...
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£38m raised for the appeal for Nepal, in a week, in the UK. Not a penny of it from wicked (copyright T Farron Esq) Tories like yer 'umble servant, naturally.0
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Lot's of great stuff in here. 6 is interesting. I think, Like USA, we do enjoy a 2-term affair.OblitusSumMe said:
My reasons are:SeanT said:Can someone explain to me in short, pithy sentences, why so many esteemed pb-ers are predicting a Tory plurality when the majority of the polls indicate a Labour plurality, even and despite Scotland?
What are they pinning their hopes/fears on? Tory incumbency? Canvass returns? The betting markets? Tory out-performance in the marginals? Superiority of phone polls? A good hard stare into the scrying glass?
Que?
1. Superiority of phone polls.
2. Not a "change" election - eg more people still blame Labour for cuts, favour Tories on economic management, etc.
3. More Lib Dem seats are vulnerable to Tory challengers than Labour.
4. Scotland wipeout and differential Lib Dem gains imply a target of 50 Labour gains from Tories to reach parity, which is not supported by Ashcroft marginal polling.
5. Some plausible UKIP gains - eg Thurrock, Thanet South - are in Conservative seats that would have been likely Labour gains in UKIPs absence, so are in some sense Labour losses when you look at their target list.
6. History of Labour losing vote share in election after being ejected from government - see 1955, 1974 (Feb) and 1983.
Unfortunately SeanT asked for pithiness. This isn't pithy. Hence Fail. :-)
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Labour have 41 Scottish seats. So I call it 40 or 41 losses to the SNP - ie a wipeout. If you have differential gains from the Lib Dems of ten that gets you to just about a hundred seat difference, depending on whether you are working from 2010 seat totals or those at dissolution.Stereotomy said:
Taking 32 seats from Lab to SNP, I only get a seat difference of 80. So unless Con are going to get 20 more seats from LD than Lab are, which seems unlikely, that sounds too high.OblitusSumMe said:4. Scotland wipeout and differential Lib Dem gains imply a target of 50 Labour gains from Tories to reach parity, which is not supported by Ashcroft marginal polling.
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Castle Point (Canvey Island).Pulpstar said:
Yns MonSandyRentool said:Question: How many GB constituencies include islands? Anyone care to list them?
Western Isles
O&S
Argyll & Bute
Isle of Wight
North Ayrshire Arran...
?0 -
Yes, I remember it well. The Sheffield Rally has entered the mythology when in fact I don't think it made much difference. FWIW, if there was a late swing in the polls towards CON, I think it was the 'Labour's Tax Bombshell' poster - launched in the last week - that did most to cause it.Polruan said:
Is the Sheffield effect in any way evidenced? ie. we know the Sheffield rally was kind of awkward, but is there any verified connection between that event and the delta between poll and actual votes? Because if we're just using it as shorthand for "the polls woz wrong" then extrapolating that that wrongness depresses the Labour vote seems optimistic. Why couldn't the Tory vote be subject to the same problem?Ishmael_X said:
An effect which is by definition invisible in polls, is invisible in a poll? Golly.Pulpstar said:
There is no "Sheffield effect" for Labour evident in the ICM poll.Ishmael_X said:
2. The Sheffield effect, the point of which has always been that it doesn't show up in the polls, only at the moment of truth in the polling booth.
Labour on THIRTY SEVEN % in Hallam is a very strong indicator that they're doing quite well tbh.
Hallam is simply not the sort of place Labour should be picking up 37%.
Genuine question btw, I was quite young in 92.0 -
That depends how far you're willing to go. If you mean inhabited islands, presumably St Ives has the Scilly Isles. North Devon has Lundy.SandyRentool said:Question: How many GB constituencies include islands? Anyone care to list them?
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Castle Point, St Ives, Ross Skye etc.Pulpstar said:
Yns MonSandyRentool said:Question: How many GB constituencies include islands? Anyone care to list them?
Western Isles
O&S
Argyll & Bute
Isle of Wight
North Ayrshire Arran...
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Sittingbourne & Sheppey.0
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Sittingbourne and Sheppy?Pulpstar said:
Yns MonSandyRentool said:Question: How many GB constituencies include islands? Anyone care to list them?
Western Isles
O&S
Argyll & Bute
Isle of Wight
North Ayrshire Arran...
?0 -
.0
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Berwick Upon Tweed.Peter_the_Punter said:
Castle Point (Canvey Island).Pulpstar said:
Yns MonSandyRentool said:Question: How many GB constituencies include islands? Anyone care to list them?
Western Isles
O&S
Argyll & Bute
Isle of Wight
North Ayrshire Arran...
?
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Lindisfarne is part of Berwick-upon-Tweed's constituency.0
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Is there any way Lucy Powell could dig her hole any deeper?
Oh, wait...
@LucyMPowell: Honestly Tories and others desperately mis-quoting what I said. Anyone who heard the whole interview knows I said the opposite.0 -
I've decided, for tonight's PB meet up, I'm wearing those trainers0
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Argyll and Bute, N h'eileian siar, Orkney and Shetland, Isle of Wight, Ynys Mon, Ross, Skye and Lochaber, Berwick on tweed, St Ives, Castle Point, North Essex, Havant from the top of my headSandyRentool said:Question: How many GB constituencies include islands? Anyone care to list them?
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Sunil Prasannan @Sunil_P2 · 3h 3 hours ago
#Greens % scores in Electoral LeaderBoard Of the Week (ELBOW), split into Phone and Online polls, updated for 1st May
https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/5955117156195368960 -
Mersea Island is in Harwich & North Essex.0
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Depends how big the island is. Though in the case of Ross, Skye & Lochaber you're talking quite big.Pulpstar said:
Yns MonSandyRentool said:Question: How many GB constituencies include islands? Anyone care to list them?
Western Isles
O&S
Argyll & Bute
Isle of Wight
North Ayrshire Arran...
?
I think the Isles of Scilly are in St Ives. Is Lundy North Devon?
Sittingbourne & Sheppey too. Then of course there's the Isle of Thanet...
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Well you know what song is in my head now, git.antifrank said:Lindisfarne is part of Berwick-upon-Tweed's constituency.
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Bloody UKIP, nicking policies off the Greens.TheScreamingEagles said:while the other suggested vulnerable animals should be granted the right to claim asylum in Britain like refugees.
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Is the post about Middlesbrough postal votes down thread legal?0
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Agreed, I think that in that situation it would far wiser to let the Tories stumble on with a minority coalition with the Lib Dems. I am sure that is why EM has been so specific about not doing deals with the SNPGIN1138 said:
Even if mathematically possible I can't see Ed becoming PM with 257 seats and more than 30 seats behind Con...Pulpstar said:
More the fact that his central projection of Con 289, Lab 257 gives a 50-50 probability of PM Ed. It gives a good indication of why Ed should still be favourite for PM.GIN1138 said:0 -
The Paul Gascoigne version, I hope.TheScreamingEagles said:
Well you know what song is in my head now, git.antifrank said:Lindisfarne is part of Berwick-upon-Tweed's constituency.
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Anecdotals from the immediate aftermath of people saying it was Sheffield that persuaded them Kinnock wasn't personally up to it. What makes it Labour-hostile is the personal inadequacy theme. (And that's not just sniping: see leader ratings for the last 5 years).Polruan said:
Is the Sheffield effect in any way evidenced? ie. we know the Sheffield rally was kind of awkward, but is there any verified connection between that event and the delta between poll and actual votes? Because if we're just using it as shorthand for "the polls woz wrong" then extrapolating that that wrongness depresses the Labour vote seems optimistic. Why couldn't the Tory vote be subject to the same problem?Ishmael_X said:
An effect which is by definition invisible in polls, is invisible in a poll? Golly.Pulpstar said:
There is no "Sheffield effect" for Labour evident in the ICM poll.Ishmael_X said:
2. The Sheffield effect, the point of which has always been that it doesn't show up in the polls, only at the moment of truth in the polling booth.
Labour on THIRTY SEVEN % in Hallam is a very strong indicator that they're doing quite well tbh.
Hallam is simply not the sort of place Labour should be picking up 37%.
Genuine question btw, I was quite young in 92.
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@MrHarryCole: BBC's Norman Smith says Lucy Powell has had major gaffe as she takes to twitter to pretend she was misquoted.0
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Right, that just about adds upOblitusSumMe said:
Labour have 41 Scottish seats. So I call it 40 or 41 losses to the SNP - ie a wipeout. If you have differential gains from the Lib Dems of ten that gets you to just about a hundred seat difference, depending on whether you are working from 2010 seat totals or those at dissolution.Stereotomy said:
Taking 32 seats from Lab to SNP, I only get a seat difference of 80. So unless Con are going to get 20 more seats from LD than Lab are, which seems unlikely, that sounds too high.OblitusSumMe said:4. Scotland wipeout and differential Lib Dem gains imply a target of 50 Labour gains from Tories to reach parity, which is not supported by Ashcroft marginal polling.
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0
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Newsnight (i.e. Election Forecast) sans incumbency - which also serves as an answer to SeanT:
http://ichef.bbci.co.uk/live-experience/cps/512/amz/vivo/live/images/2015/5/5/1c7890e4-d5ce-4c89-bbde-d772ad18074e.png0 -
What a rag
Sun Politics @SunPolitics 6m6 minutes ago
Ed Miliband’s bid to win Russell Brand’s backing backfired0 -
For Mike's sake, can nobody post postal voting figures, you're going to get a visit from the rozzers, because we have your IP addresses0
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Not sure I want to know what "propped up" means...Casino_Royale said:Keep it up, James:
http://m.huffpost.com/uk/entry/72116500 -
Brigg and Goole (tenuous)Ghedebrav said:
Depends how big the island is. Though in the case of Ross, Skye & Lochaber you're talking quite big.Pulpstar said:
Yns MonSandyRentool said:Question: How many GB constituencies include islands? Anyone care to list them?
Western Isles
O&S
Argyll & Bute
Isle of Wight
North Ayrshire Arran...
?
I think the Isles of Scilly are in St Ives. Is Lundy North Devon?
Sittingbourne & Sheppey too. Then of course there's the Isle of Thanet...
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South Dorset-Brownsea Island.0
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Portsmouth North & South.Ghedebrav said:
Depends how big the island is. Though in the case of Ross, Skye & Lochaber you're talking quite big.Pulpstar said:
Yns MonSandyRentool said:Question: How many GB constituencies include islands? Anyone care to list them?
Western Isles
O&S
Argyll & Bute
Isle of Wight
North Ayrshire Arran...
?
I think the Isles of Scilly are in St Ives. Is Lundy North Devon?
Sittingbourne & Sheppey too. Then of course there's the Isle of Thanet...0 -
Postal voting needs to be banned, because the information is out there the entire election is self undermining.TheScreamingEagles said:For Mike's sake, can nobody post postal voting figures, you're going to get a visit from the rozzers, because we have your IP addresses
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Does anyone know how many recipients of postal votes go to the polling booth instead? I was planning to vote by post, but my new station is a 5 mins walk so will do so in person instead.0
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Wouldn't incumbency be visible in the polls?Tissue_Price said:Newsnight (i.e. Election Forecast) sans incumbency - which also serves as an answer to SeanT:
http://ichef.bbci.co.uk/live-experience/cps/512/amz/vivo/live/images/2015/5/5/1c7890e4-d5ce-4c89-bbde-d772ad18074e.png0 -
You need to define if habitable/inhabited - if the latter then the following are possible, thugh many were only lighthouse keepers and/or are desertedPeter_the_Punter said:
Castle Point (Canvey Island).Pulpstar said:
Yns MonSandyRentool said:Question: How many GB constituencies include islands? Anyone care to list them?
Western Isles
O&S
Argyll & Bute
Isle of Wight
North Ayrshire Arran...
?
Ross, Skye and Lochaber (Summer Isles etc.)
Caithness etc (Stroma?)
Those constituencies in Lothian and Fife which include the Forth islands from the Bridge outwards to May and, round the corner, the Bell Rock
Whichever in SW England has the Eddystone
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Interesting article yesterday in the Huffington Post, Ramesh Patel, a Tory economist states that the Tories have lied consistently about Labour and the deficit in 2010, why o why does it take a Tory to say what Labour should have beem emphasising.0
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Everyone is just making things up now. The scum named Murdoch is getting very desperate now...bigjohnowls said:What a rag
Sun Politics @SunPolitics 6m6 minutes ago
Ed Miliband’s bid to win Russell Brand’s backing backfired0 -
Well, that's at least 1 then.Plato said:Does anyone know how many recipients of postal voters go to the polling instead? I was planning to vote by post, but my new station is a 5 mins walk so will do so in person instead.
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Barrow-in-Furness (Walney)Pulpstar said:
Yns MonSandyRentool said:Question: How many GB constituencies include islands? Anyone care to list them?
Western Isles
O&S
Argyll & Bute
Isle of Wight
North Ayrshire Arran...
?
Wirral West (Hilbre)0 -
NW Norfolk - Scolt Head Island0
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Poplar and Limehouse (Isle of Dogs)botanically_speaking said:
Berwick Upon Tweed.Peter_the_Punter said:
Castle Point (Canvey Island).Pulpstar said:
Yns MonSandyRentool said:Question: How many GB constituencies include islands? Anyone care to list them?
Western Isles
O&S
Argyll & Bute
Isle of Wight
North Ayrshire Arran...
?0 -
Dwyfor Meirionnydd (Bardsea)0
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Not banned, just restricted to those who really can't vote in person. And policed. A few prosecutions with decent jail terms for those abusing the system or releasing information will focus minds.Pulpstar said:
Postal voting needs to be banned, because the information is out there the entire election is self undermining.TheScreamingEagles said:For Mike's sake, can nobody post postal voting figures, you're going to get a visit from the rozzers, because we have your IP addresses
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Barry Island in Vale of GlamorganRodCrosby said:
Barrow-in-Furness (Walney)Pulpstar said:
Yns MonSandyRentool said:Question: How many GB constituencies include islands? Anyone care to list them?
Western Isles
O&S
Argyll & Bute
Isle of Wight
North Ayrshire Arran...
?
Wirral West (Hilbre)
Pembrokeshire (?)0 -
I think the EdStone has claimed the mantle of Daftest campaign moment by a mile. What a stupid idiotic clusterf*ck of an idea (and i say that as a Lab voter).
Any other nominations for this accolade? The Tory promise to outlaw tax rises was another bonkers idea, but not in the same league as the EdStone IMHO. It just reminds me of those terrifying Aids adverts in the 80s!
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Canvey is definitely inhabitable, and inhabited, though one may reasonably ask why.Carnyx said:
You need to define if habitable/inhabited - if the latter then the following are possible, thugh many were only lighthouse keepers and/or are desertedPeter_the_Punter said:
Castle Point (Canvey Island).Pulpstar said:
Yns MonSandyRentool said:Question: How many GB constituencies include islands? Anyone care to list them?
Western Isles
O&S
Argyll & Bute
Isle of Wight
North Ayrshire Arran...
?
Ross, Skye and Lochaber (Summer Isles etc.)
Caithness etc (Stroma?)
Those constituencies in Lothian and Fife which include the Forth islands from the Bridge outwards to May and, round the corner, the Bell Rock
Whichever in SW England has the Eddystone
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Lots of lefties calling him an establishment sell-out, and saying he should have backed the Greens instead of more of the same old, same old.bigjohnowls said:What a rag
Sun Politics @SunPolitics 6m6 minutes ago
Ed Miliband’s bid to win Russell Brand’s backing backfired0 -
Theoretically every contituency North And west of the great Glen is on an island.0
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LOL....you are a funny troll....By yesterday you mean the 6 days ago...By economist, you mean he did an economist degree but isn't thought of any of as such and finally is widely derided for inaccuracies...roserees64 said:Interesting article yesterday in the Huffington Post, Ramesh Patel, a Tory economist states that the Tories have lied consistently about Labour and the deficit in 2010, why o why does it take a Tory to say what Labour should have beem emphasising.
Now tell us again about Ed Balls reading economics at Oxford and beating his class including Osborne....0 -
We may get more effective 'tory' voting as well. If the tories go for the liberals in the red/yellow seats then this will reduce the tory percentage but improve the chance of a blue-yellow coalition. Similarly if we get purple--> blue and blue --> purple then the tory vote may actually decline quit considerably (more blues to lose) but their seats increase.HYUFD said:The key difference in 2010 was UKIP were polling around 3% not 12/13%+ so if the Tories can squeeze that down to around 10% they should get up to 35/36%+
I am assuming that UKIP will be no more likely to join with Labour than the SNP join with the Conservatives.
TBH - I wish it was this time next week.0 -
Diane Abbott MP @hackneyabbatt May 2
Hearing the postal votes for Tower Hamlets have been counted & the turnout is expected to be 127%. Expect a @UKLabour landslide.0 -
I was wondering if the Thames and Humber forts (and were they not in the Mersey too?) qualify.Peter_the_Punter said:
Canvey is definitely inhabitable, and inhabited, though one may reasonably ask why.Carnyx said:
You need to define if habitable/inhabited - if the latter then the following are possible, thugh many were only lighthouse keepers and/or are desertedPeter_the_Punter said:
Castle Point (Canvey Island).Pulpstar said:
Yns MonSandyRentool said:Question: How many GB constituencies include islands? Anyone care to list them?
Western Isles
O&S
Argyll & Bute
Isle of Wight
North Ayrshire Arran...
?
Ross, Skye and Lochaber (Summer Isles etc.)
Caithness etc (Stroma?)
Those constituencies in Lothian and Fife which include the Forth islands from the Bridge outwards to May and, round the corner, the Bell Rock
Whichever in SW England has the Eddystone
The Palmerston forts in the Solent are - presumably - covered by the IoW/Pompey constituencies, but I'm not sure about the equivalents out in the approaches to Plymouth and the Tamar.
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PeterC said:
Especially since Con + LD + DUP + UKIP > 323. This is the crucial consideration for a Con/LD government.GIN1138 said:
Even if mathematically possible I can't see Ed becoming PM with 257 seats and more than 30 seats behind Con...Pulpstar said:
More the fact that his central projection of Con 289, Lab 257 gives a 50-50 probability of PM Ed. It gives a good indication of why Ed should still be favourite for PM.GIN1138 said:
TSE. The current voting system will have 2 highly undesirable consequences in this election.TheScreamingEagles said:It was four years ago today that we voted to reject AV.
Given what we know, and the expected election result, would AV have passed now?
(I know, we don't discuss AV enough)
1. It will give the impression that the nationalists have swept the board in Scotland whereas in reality the unionist parties may actually have more votes but be practically wiped out. This could ultimately lead to the break up of the UK.
2. UKIP will poll anything from 10-15% of the votes and be almost totally unrepresented which is a travesty in a democracy, much as I disagree with them.
The only virtue that people used to claim on behalf of FPTP is that it produced strong stable governments. If it fails miserably to do that I wonder how long it will last.
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Sweetheart, he's been at it for years. google him. He's a nutter with a book to publicise.roserees64 said:Interesting article yesterday in the Huffington Post, Ramesh Patel, a Tory economist states that the Tories have lied consistently about Labour and the deficit in 2010, why o why does it take a Tory to say what Labour should have beem emphasising.
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Postal voting combined with this is so depressing for democracy. order-order.com/2015/05/05/pakistani-speaker-at-sex-segregation-rally-boasted-i-can-tell-people-how-to-vote/#_@/qUfkohofX7FCUg
Chaudhry is the former premier of Kashmir and the MP for Mirpur, in Pakistan. In a 2010 BBC profile, he claimed he “always” visits Britain ahead of general elections in order to tell British-Pakistanis “how to vote“. Chaudhry claims:
“I always come during elections. It’s basically so I can tell people how to vote and who to vote for. Most of the Pakistanis here [in Britain] are from Mirpur, and I am the MP from Mirpur, and I know the issues here and who will be the best candidates to help solve the issues in Kashmir.”0 -
So since GE 2010 there is a UK wide swing from Con to LAB of 3.6%.chestnut said:Midlands swing from Con to Lab down to 1.4% in last two Populus polls.
SE swing down from 6.5% to 4.7%
Has to be bigger than that in E&W due to Scottish collapse.
No wonder Populus is showing EICIPM0 -
On Friday, when there is real hard politicking to be done of the sort that only bubble-ists and the anoraks of this parish understand, subtle comments like that will break Twitter. Owen Jones's nanny will have a terrible morning and demented disciples of the Prophet Brand will crawl to their local A&E department (or pubs) moaning, 'WTF? Fing politicians. Me 'ead 'urts. Sod Russell Brand.' Alan Partridge will make a PPB while Lily Savage sits in the Luton departure lounge waiting for some to tell her whether to stay or go. You go, Lil, old girl. You know you want to.Polruan said:On the legitimacy of minority government point: I agree with the view that beyond a certain level, Ed could be constitutionally able to form a government, but politically incapable of so doing.
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caldey island in carmarthen & south pembrokeCarnyx said:
Barry Island in Vale of GlamorganRodCrosby said:
Barrow-in-Furness (Walney)Pulpstar said:
Yns MonSandyRentool said:Question: How many GB constituencies include islands? Anyone care to list them?
Western Isles
O&S
Argyll & Bute
Isle of Wight
North Ayrshire Arran...
?
Wirral West (Hilbre)
Pembrokeshire (?)0 -
chestnut He did back the Greens in Brighton and the SNP in Scotland, his Labour endorsement was only for England and Wales in Labour v Tory seats0
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Don't know whether this counts - but Portsea Island contains Portsmouth South and part of Portsmouth North. OK it's got a Motorway and other roads connecting, but some others mentioned have bridges.SandyRentool said:Question: How many GB constituencies include islands? Anyone care to list them?
Also Hayling Island is part of Havant constituency.0 -
Do the Lib Dems accept they'll be the 4th placed party yet ?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Dr Feelgood makes up for a lot of shortcomings.Peter_the_Punter said:
Canvey is definitely inhabitable, and inhabited, though one may reasonably ask why.Carnyx said:
You need to define if habitable/inhabited - if the latter then the following are possible, thugh many were only lighthouse keepers and/or are desertedPeter_the_Punter said:
Castle Point (Canvey Island).Pulpstar said:
Yns MonSandyRentool said:Question: How many GB constituencies include islands? Anyone care to list them?
Western Isles
O&S
Argyll & Bute
Isle of Wight
North Ayrshire Arran...
?
Ross, Skye and Lochaber (Summer Isles etc.)
Caithness etc (Stroma?)
Those constituencies in Lothian and Fife which include the Forth islands from the Bridge outwards to May and, round the corner, the Bell Rock
Whichever in SW England has the Eddystone
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It would seem we are an island nation.
"We have the character of an island nation: independent, forthright, passionate in defence of our sovereignty. We can no more change this British sensibility than we can drain the English Channel. And because of this sensibility, we come to the European Union with a frame of mind that is more practical than emotional"0 -
For pity's sake you have posted about the "Edstone" about 6 times in the last hour, everyone has moved on, it's yesterday's news, stop flogging a dead horse.Scott_P said:@SunNation: Just when you thought Labour's #Edstone shambles couldn't get any worse... http://t.co/DNECUslXV7 http://t.co/3rzxRwQYOv
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The true definition of tribal politics.Plato said:Postal voting combined with this is so depressing for democracy. order-order.com/2015/05/05/pakistani-speaker-at-sex-segregation-rally-boasted-i-can-tell-people-how-to-vote/#_@/qUfkohofX7FCUg
Chaudhry is the former premier of Kashmir and the MP for Mirpur, in Pakistan. In a 2010 BBC profile, he claimed he “always” visits Britain ahead of general elections in order to tell British-Pakistanis “how to vote“. Chaudhry claims:
“I always come during elections. It’s basically so I can tell people how to vote and who to vote for. Most of the Pakistanis here [in Britain] are from Mirpur, and I am the MP from Mirpur, and I know the issues here and who will be the best candidates to help solve the issues in Kashmir.”
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Sadly, I can fully believe this.Plato said:Postal voting combined with this is so depressing for democracy. order-order.com/2015/05/05/pakistani-speaker-at-sex-segregation-rally-boasted-i-can-tell-people-how-to-vote/#_@/qUfkohofX7FCUg
Chaudhry is the former premier of Kashmir and the MP for Mirpur, in Pakistan. In a 2010 BBC profile, he claimed he “always” visits Britain ahead of general elections in order to tell British-Pakistanis “how to vote“. Chaudhry claims:
“I always come during elections. It’s basically so I can tell people how to vote and who to vote for. Most of the Pakistanis here [in Britain] are from Mirpur, and I am the MP from Mirpur, and I know the issues here and who will be the best candidates to help solve the issues in Kashmir.”0 -
Lab majority 180 on BF0
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Twickenham (Eel Pie Island)Tissue_Price said:
Castle Point, St Ives, Ross Skye etc.Pulpstar said:
Yns MonSandyRentool said:Question: How many GB constituencies include islands? Anyone care to list them?
Western Isles
O&S
Argyll & Bute
Isle of Wight
North Ayrshire Arran...
?0 -
Eddie has to win a chunk more seats than Brown did for enough of his party to get behind him. We hear plenty of the kick the Tories out at all costs mentality from the likes of Nick Palmer but there are enough politicians with more sense, led by Balls in the Labour party to act with more class.OllyT said:
Agreed, I think that in that situation it would far wiser to let the Tories stumble on with a minority coalition with the Lib Dems. I am sure that is why EM has been so specific about not doing deals with the SNPGIN1138 said:
Even if mathematically possible I can't see Ed becoming PM with 257 seats and more than 30 seats behind Con...Pulpstar said:
More the fact that his central projection of Con 289, Lab 257 gives a 50-50 probability of PM Ed. It gives a good indication of why Ed should still be favourite for PM.GIN1138 said:
Miliband will need around 275 I reckon to get his chance, at present from what I detect on the ground, Labour activists are very nervous. They are like a footballing team on the last day relying on factors outside their control for success. In so many key marginals they will rely on the UKIP vote holding up, if it doesn't they won't gain the seats. Nobody will be more nervous than Nick Palmer, if UKIP vote expectation holds up he will gain a narrow win, if it drops by a smallish amount he will lose.
I wouldn't like to put too much money on whether he will get to 275 or be stuck on 260, it will all come down to some really tight marginals.0 -
Clegg rattled, the Conservatives suddenly going all-out in LibDem-held seats rather than Con/Lab marginals, Labour apparently in a panic: use your brains, guys and gals. There's a pretty obvious explanation. Postal votes have gone out, but, more importantly, the follow-up phone calls in key marginals have happened.
This is one part of the answer to SeanT's question.0 -
Sadly, I can fully believe this.Casino_Royale said:Plato said:Postal voting combined with this is so depressing for democracy. order-order.com/2015/05/05/pakistani-speaker-at-sex-segregation-rally-boasted-i-can-tell-people-how-to-vote/#_@/qUfkohofX7FCUg
Chaudhry is the former premier of Kashmir and the MP for Mirpur, in Pakistan. In a 2010 BBC profile, he claimed he “always” visits Britain ahead of general elections in order to tell British-Pakistanis “how to vote“. Chaudhry claims:
“I always come during elections. It’s basically so I can tell people how to vote and who to vote for. Most of the Pakistanis here [in Britain] are from Mirpur, and I am the MP from Mirpur, and I know the issues here and who will be the best candidates to help solve the issues in Kashmir.”
You have to feel sorry for people who need to be told who to vote for, whether they be former residents of Kashmir or Sun readers.0 -
rubbish, ms. powell has dragged it back to centre stage.OllyT said:
For pity's sake you have posted about the "Edstone" about 6 times in the last hour, everyone has moved on, it's yesterday's news, stop flogging a dead horse.Scott_P said:@SunNation: Just when you thought Labour's #Edstone shambles couldn't get any worse... http://t.co/DNECUslXV7 http://t.co/3rzxRwQYOv
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Thanet.Peter_the_Punter said:
Castle Point (Canvey Island).Pulpstar said:
Yns MonSandyRentool said:Question: How many GB constituencies include islands? Anyone care to list them?
Western Isles
O&S
Argyll & Bute
Isle of Wight
North Ayrshire Arran...
?
Does Isle of Man vote this week?
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While they'll be fourth in terms of seats, the UKIP-LibDem battle for third place in votes (assuming the phone pollsters are correct) could be very interesting.Pulpstar said:
Do the Lib Dems accept they'll be the 4th placed party yet ?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
OK, so the Sheffield effect is proxy for an assumption that low personal ratings for the leader don't affect headline VI in the polls right up to the election, but depress actual votes for that party.Ishmael_X said:
Anecdotals from the immediate aftermath of people saying it was Sheffield that persuaded them Kinnock wasn't personally up to it. What makes it Labour-hostile is the personal inadequacy theme. (And that's not just sniping: see leader ratings for the last 5 years).Polruan said:
Is the Sheffield effect in any way evidenced? ie. we know the Sheffield rally was kind of awkward, but is there any verified connection between that event and the delta between poll and actual votes? Because if we're just using it as shorthand for "the polls woz wrong" then extrapolating that that wrongness depresses the Labour vote seems optimistic. Why couldn't the Tory vote be subject to the same problem?Ishmael_X said:
An effect which is by definition invisible in polls, is invisible in a poll? Golly.Pulpstar said:
There is no "Sheffield effect" for Labour evident in the ICM poll.Ishmael_X said:
2. The Sheffield effect, the point of which has always been that it doesn't show up in the polls, only at the moment of truth in the polling booth.
Labour on THIRTY SEVEN % in Hallam is a very strong indicator that they're doing quite well tbh.
Hallam is simply not the sort of place Labour should be picking up 37%.
Genuine question btw, I was quite young in 92.
@ThomasNashe 's explanation seems rather more plausible: that late swings are possible due to campaigning factors, and may or may not be hung on a single media-friendly factor that demonstrates correlation (kind of) but not causation.
So all we can really say is that the polls might be wrong (either way), that in future we'd seek to find a reason for it, possibly call it a "Sheffield moment" but, if it's the Tories who underperform the polling, accept that Sheffield moments are available to all parties.
Was the unwind of the Cleggasm a Sheffield moment, btw?0 -
A stage whose audience consists entirely of anoraksScrapheap_as_was said:
rubbish, ms. powell has dragged it back to centre stage.OllyT said:
For pity's sake you have posted about the "Edstone" about 6 times in the last hour, everyone has moved on, it's yesterday's news, stop flogging a dead horse.Scott_P said:@SunNation: Just when you thought Labour's #Edstone shambles couldn't get any worse... http://t.co/DNECUslXV7 http://t.co/3rzxRwQYOv
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Weren't you rather sweet on a Conservative Overall Majority earlier in the year, Rod?RodCrosby said:Lab majority 180 on BF
Or am I mixing you up with Tissue Price?0 -
The chance for a change to STV or similar could be the only positive to come out of this election.OllyT said:PeterC said:
Especially since Con + LD + DUP + UKIP > 323. This is the crucial consideration for a Con/LD government.GIN1138 said:
Even if mathematically possible I can't see Ed becoming PM with 257 seats and more than 30 seats behind Con...Pulpstar said:
More the fact that his central projection of Con 289, Lab 257 gives a 50-50 probability of PM Ed. It gives a good indication of why Ed should still be favourite for PM.GIN1138 said:
TSE. The current voting system will have 2 highly undesirable consequences in this election.TheScreamingEagles said:It was four years ago today that we voted to reject AV.
Given what we know, and the expected election result, would AV have passed now?
(I know, we don't discuss AV enough)
1. It will give the impression that the nationalists have swept the board in Scotland whereas in reality the unionist parties may actually have more votes but be practically wiped out. This could ultimately lead to the break up of the UK.
2. UKIP will poll anything from 10-15% of the votes and be almost totally unrepresented which is a travesty in a democracy, much as I disagree with them.
The only virtue that people used to claim on behalf of FPTP is that it produced strong stable governments. If it fails miserably to do that I wonder how long it will last.
Clegg should push for it and the Tories and Labour should recognise that it could have some advantages for their parties as well as the country. It could mean the difference between Scotland going its own way or staying in the union.0 -
I reckon there are people in the various markets at the moment with postal vote information.
BE CAUTIOUS if it looks too good to be true at this point, it may well be.0 -
We in the U.S. have had THREE major national executive/legislative elections since the last time you election-starved Brits had one (and you've only had one parliamentary election in ten years!). Given the scarcity, I'm glad you've decided to make it exciting by sending it down to the wire.0
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Don't think that anyone has mentioned South-East Cambridgeshire yet.SandyRentool said:Question: How many GB constituencies include islands? Anyone care to list them?
(Isle of Ely)
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Thanks everyone for your replies. No-one has mentioned the Isle of Grain, but it isn't really an island. Also, there are some islands in the middle of the Thames that we ought to count too. Edit - just seen that rcs1000 has got there before me!0
