Labour's got an 'NHS Bombshell' (things in England will be as bad as Wales - ed?) and the Telegraph has a Labour bombshell:
The £200bn economic bombshell lurking in the Labour Party’s manifesto Ed Miliband's commitment to set a legal target for decarbonising the UK power sector by 2030 is likely to cost upwards of £200bn, according to analysis conducted by the Telegraph
This just shows how crap the two parties now are, with 48 hours to go they've run out of things to say and have resorted to scare-mongering. And they wonder why the electorate is disenchanted.
Miss Vance, at a guess, I reckon the polling shares might be accurate, but the seat totals could have a wide margin of error because it's so close and there are interesting effects likely (UKIP interference and the SNP potentially getting a landslide).
The things that give me pause for thought are: - The gap between phone & internet pollsters and - The absence of an 'outlier' in YouGov's now ±30 polls
Of course, as Nate Silver wisely observes, the polls may well be biased - just not in the way you hope....
My wish list (nearer fantasy as very few if any of these are likely to happen);
Esther McVey hangs on... Tristram Hunt gets chucked out....(what is it with London Labour & Northern seats?) Alec Salmond doesn't get in.....
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the final ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Changes From 2nd May Projection) :
Con 304 (-2) .. Lab 249 (+2) .. LibDem 28 (NC) .. SNP 42 (NC) .. PC 3 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 3 .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1
"JackW Dozen" - 13 seats that will shape the General Election result :
Bury North - Con Hold Pudsey - Likely Con Hold Broxtowe - Likely Lab Gain Warwickshire North - Likely Con Hold Cambridge - LibDem Hold Ipswich - Con Hold Watford - TCTC Croydon Central - Con Hold Enfield North - Likely Lab Gain Cornwall North - Likely LibDem Hold from TCTC Great Yarmouth - Con Hold Vale of Glamorgan - Con Hold Ochil and South Perthshire - SNP Gain
Changes From 2 May - Cornwall North moves from TCTC to Likely LibDem Hold
TCTC - Too Close To Call - Less than 500 votes Likely Hold/Gain - 500 - 2500 votes Gain/Hold - Over 2500 .......................................................................................
ARSE is sponsored by Auchentennach Fine Pies (Est 1745)
WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division JNN - Jacobite News Network ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors APLOMB - Auchentennach Pies Leading Outsales Mainland Britain
I wasn't around when it happened, but I believe it was because Easterross criticised OGH and John Curtice in a thread. I doubt my post on this subject will last the duration of this thread. But I feel pretty strongly about a decision like this on a site that allowed some pretty strong and prolonged abuse to some regular posters to go unchecked for years while being extremely thin skinned about any criticism of their own opinions. And especially after they have on more than one occasion tried to undermine particular posters like Easterross. At the end of the day, who has contributed more to the site on a regular basis, Easteross or MalcolmG?
FPT. "franklyn Posts: 31 May 4 We haven't heard from Easteross for a while; would value his latest insights"
Sadly, Easteross was banned from PB.com a wee while ago, some castigate him for a Scots Tory surge that didn't happen while totally ignoring fact that he got it right on Libdem seat drop at last GE. But you can still contact him via twitter @M Sutherland-Fisher to get his 2015 GE predictions.
Banned for what? I don't remember Easteross as a particularly abrasive poster or one that got into huge spats with anybody.
Away you useless Tory halfwit , you would not recognise a contribution if it slapped you on the face. Keep your personal hatred of me out of it you whinging halfwit, stick to talking mince about Tory surges.
I wasn't around when it happened, but I believe it was because Easterross criticised OGH and John Curtice in a thread. I doubt my post on this subject will last the duration of this thread. But I feel pretty strongly about a decision like this on a site that allowed some pretty strong and prolonged abuse to some regular posters to go unchecked for years while being extremely thin skinned about any criticism of their own opinions. And especially after they have on more than one occasion tried to undermine particular posters like Easterross. At the end of the day, who has contributed more to the site on a regular basis, Easteross or MalcolmG?
FPT. "franklyn Posts: 31 May 4 We haven't heard from Easteross for a while; would value his latest insights"
Sadly, Easteross was banned from PB.com a wee while ago, some castigate him for a Scots Tory surge that didn't happen while totally ignoring fact that he got it right on Libdem seat drop at last GE. But you can still contact him via twitter @M Sutherland-Fisher to get his 2015 GE predictions.
Banned for what? I don't remember Easteross as a particularly abrasive poster or one that got into huge spats with anybody.
Away you useless Tory halfwit , you would not recognise a contribution if it slapped you on the face. Keep your personal hatred of me out of it you whinging halfwit, stick to talking mince about Tory surges.
Moderators
This is uncalled for and should be deleted.
Away you big jessie, go abuse your servants
Politeness costs nothing.
Somebody should remind our PM of that the next time he calls someone a fruitcake, it might save him some votes.
If this poll is accurately representing the CON-LAB vote shares and can be translated directly to English marginals why is Ed Miliband visiting North Warwickshire at this stage? That should surely already be in the bag if they thought they were going to get the 3.5% swing implied by this poll.
Firstly because nobody knows whether this poll is right, including Ed Miliband.
Secondly because even if this poll is right, there are still two days to go.
Thirdly because the seats don't all swing uniformly - some will go Lab by quite a lot more than the average, and some by less, even to the point of swinging in the opposite direction.
If this poll is accurately representing the CON-LAB vote shares and can be translated directly to English marginals why is Ed Miliband visiting North Warwickshire at this stage? That should surely already be in the bag if they thought they were going to get the 3.5% swing implied by this poll.
Firstly because nobody knows whether this poll is right, including Ed Miliband.
Secondly because even if this poll is right, there are still two days to go.
Thirdly because the seats don't all swing uniformly - some will go Lab by quite a lot more than the average, and some by less, even to the point of swinging in the opposite direction.
I wonder what their internal data is telling them
I'd be surprised if it's telling them anything different to what publicly available data is telling us; There's been plenty of public polling, and thanks to Ashcroft that includes polls of individual seats.
I wasn't around when it happened, but I believe it was because Easterross criticised OGH and John Curtice in a thread. I doubt my post on this subject will last the duration of this thread. But I feel pretty strongly about a decision like this on a site that allowed some pretty strong and prolonged abuse to some regular posters to go unchecked for years while being extremely thin skinned about any criticism of their own opinions. And especially after they have on more than one occasion tried to undermine particular posters like Easterross. At the end of the day, who has contributed more to the site on a regular basis, Easteross or MalcolmG?
FPT. "franklyn Posts: 31 May 4 We haven't heard from Easteross for a while; would value his latest insights"
Sadly, Easteross was banned from PB.com a wee while ago, some castigate him for a Scots Tory surge that didn't happen while totally ignoring fact that he got it right on Libdem seat drop at last GE. But you can still contact him via twitter @M Sutherland-Fisher to get his 2015 GE predictions.
Banned for what? I don't remember Easteross as a particularly abrasive poster or one that got into huge spats with anybody.
Away you useless Tory halfwit , you would not recognise a contribution if it slapped you on the face. Keep your personal hatred of me out of it you whinging halfwit, stick to talking mince about Tory surges.
Moderators
This is uncalled for and should be deleted.
The best thing to do is what I have decided to do. Ignore anything Malcolm G posts . If he insults someone he will just look the fool he regularly presents himself as..
Miss Vance, at a guess, I reckon the polling shares might be accurate, but the seat totals could have a wide margin of error because it's so close and there are interesting effects likely (UKIP interference and the SNP potentially getting a landslide).
The things that give me pause for thought are: - The gap between phone & internet pollsters and - The absence of an 'outlier' in YouGov's now ±30 polls
Of course, as Nate Silver wisely observes, the polls may well be biased - just not in the way you hope....
My wish list (nearer fantasy as very few if any of these are likely to happen);
Esther McVey hangs on... Tristram Hunt gets chucked out....(what is it with London Labour & Northern seats?) Alec Salmond doesn't get in.....
You've a chance with the first, but I agree the other two are highly unlikely.
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the final ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Changes From 2nd May Projection) :
Con 304 (-2) .. Lab 249 (+2) .. LibDem 28 (NC) .. SNP 42 (NC) .. PC 3 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 3 .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1
"JackW Dozen" - 13 seats that will shape the General Election result :
Bury North - Con Hold Pudsey - Likely Con Hold Broxtowe - Likely Lab Gain Warwickshire North - Likely Con Hold Cambridge - LibDem Hold Ipswich - Con Hold Watford - TCTC Croydon Central - Con Hold Enfield North - Likely Lab Gain Cornwall North - Likely LibDem Hold from TCTC Great Yarmouth - Con Hold Vale of Glamorgan - Con Hold Ochil and South Perthshire - SNP Gain
Changes From 2 May - Cornwall North moves from TCTC to Likely LibDem Hold
TCTC - Too Close To Call - Less than 500 votes Likely Hold/Gain - 500 - 2500 votes Gain/Hold - Over 2500 .......................................................................................
ARSE is sponsored by Auchentennach Fine Pies (Est 1745)
WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division JNN - Jacobite News Network ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors APLOMB - Auchentennach Pies Leading Outsales Mainland Britain
Interesting Jack ... Do you predict Coalition 2.0 or is Clegg gone?
@DPJHodges: Just seen tomorrow's final day campaign schedule. Either elaborate bluff, or Tories now convinced they've got this.
I cannot call it... from all the mood music, the tories seems to be feeling fairly comfortable, but they must be seeing something (along with the punters) that the polls aren't.
@DPJHodges: Just seen tomorrow's final day campaign schedule. Either elaborate bluff, or Tories now convinced they've got this.
I cannot call it... from all the mood music, the tories seems to be feeling fairly comfortable, but they must be seeing something (along with the punters) that the polls aren't.
Maybe they are seeing what ICM and one or two others are as well as an improvement in vote efficiency.
If this poll is accurately representing the CON-LAB vote shares and can be translated directly to English marginals why is Ed Miliband visiting North Warwickshire at this stage? That should surely already be in the bag if they thought they were going to get the 3.5% swing implied by this poll.
Visits are an irritating mystery to people on the ground (you often get someone you've only just heard of, and it gets shifted three times and then cancelled), but are governed by having a coherent route and local factors as well as overall probability. The most senior visit that I've had up to now has been the shadow housing minister (Emma Reynolds), but I did get Eddie Izzard because we happened to be on his route.
Based on pure statistical swings on the Yougov in question, I predict the following. I have used UNS separately for England & Wales and Scotland.
The only manual adjustment I have done is for the 3 UKIP seats. Clacton, Thanet S from the Tories and Thurrock from Labour. That's it. The rest are just stats.
I do not claim constituency level knowledge.
Con 266, Lab 281, LD 18, UKIP 3, GRN 1, PC 3, SPK 1 Total = 573
add: Scotland
Con 0, Lab 5, LD 1, SNP 53
Total based on Yougov 04/05/15
Con 266, Lab 286, LD 19, UKIP 3, GRN 1, PC 3, SPK 1, SNP 53 Total = 632
@DPJHodges: Just seen tomorrow's final day campaign schedule. Either elaborate bluff, or Tories now convinced they've got this.
I cannot call it... from all the mood music, the tories seems to be feeling fairly comfortable, but they must be seeing something (along with the punters) that the polls aren't.
Or they may have their own polls, like Mitt Romney...
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the final ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Changes From 2nd May Projection) :
Con 304 (-2) .. Lab 249 (+2) .. LibDem 28 (NC) .. SNP 42 (NC) .. PC 3 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 3 .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1
"JackW Dozen" - 13 seats that will shape the General Election result :
Bury North - Con Hold Pudsey - Likely Con Hold Broxtowe - Likely Lab Gain Warwickshire North - Likely Con Hold Cambridge - LibDem Hold Ipswich - Con Hold Watford - TCTC Croydon Central - Con Hold Enfield North - Likely Lab Gain Cornwall North - Likely LibDem Hold from TCTC Great Yarmouth - Con Hold Vale of Glamorgan - Con Hold Ochil and South Perthshire - SNP Gain
Changes From 2 May - Cornwall North moves from TCTC to Likely LibDem Hold
TCTC - Too Close To Call - Less than 500 votes Likely Hold/Gain - 500 - 2500 votes Gain/Hold - Over 2500 .......................................................................................
ARSE is sponsored by Auchentennach Fine Pies (Est 1745)
WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division JNN - Jacobite News Network ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors APLOMB - Auchentennach Pies Leading Outsales Mainland Britain
Con 284 SNP 50 LD 26 Lab 263 DUP 9
Bury North - Likely Lab Gain Warwickshire North - Lab Gain Ipswich - TCTC Watfrod - TCTC (Lib Dem/Con) Croydon Central - TCTC
''I cannot call it... from all the mood music, the tories seems to be feeling fairly comfortable, but they must be seeing something (along with the punters) that the polls aren't.''
A couple of tory canvassers posted last night that on the ground, they reckon there is no swing to labour in South West London. Zilch, nothing, nada.
The tory leadership must be calculating that all they need is for their vote in England to stay rock solid, and the labour vote to simply not turn up.
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the final ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Changes From 2nd May Projection) :
Con 304 (-2) .. Lab 249 (+2) .. LibDem 28 (NC) .. SNP 42 (NC) .. PC 3 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 3 .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1
"JackW Dozen" - 13 seats that will shape the General Election result :
Bury North - Con Hold Pudsey - Likely Con Hold Broxtowe - Likely Lab Gain Warwickshire North - Likely Con Hold Cambridge - LibDem Hold Ipswich - Con Hold Watford - TCTC Croydon Central - Con Hold Enfield North - Likely Lab Gain Cornwall North - Likely LibDem Hold from TCTC Great Yarmouth - Con Hold Vale of Glamorgan - Con Hold Ochil and South Perthshire - SNP Gain
Changes From 2 May - Cornwall North moves from TCTC to Likely LibDem Hold
TCTC - Too Close To Call - Less than 500 votes Likely Hold/Gain - 500 - 2500 votes Gain/Hold - Over 2500 .......................................................................................
ARSE is sponsored by Auchentennach Fine Pies (Est 1745)
WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division JNN - Jacobite News Network ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors APLOMB - Auchentennach Pies Leading Outsales Mainland Britain
Interesting Jack ... Do you predict Coalition 2.0 or is Clegg gone?
Clegg will retain Hallam without any undue drama albeit with a notably reduced majority.
The ARSE numbers indicate "Coalition 2.0" and after a considerable amount of piss and wind I'd expect both parties to knuckle down and get on with the serious business of stable government for another five years.
If this poll is accurately representing the CON-LAB vote shares and can be translated directly to English marginals why is Ed Miliband visiting North Warwickshire at this stage? That should surely already be in the bag if they thought they were going to get the 3.5% swing implied by this poll.
Visits are an irritating mystery to people on the ground (you often get someone you've only just heard of, and it gets shifted three times and then cancelled), but are governed by having a coherent route and local factors as well as overall probability. The most senior visit that I've had up to now has been the shadow housing minister (Emma Reynolds), but I did get Eddie Izzard because we happened to be on his route.
"but I did get Eddie Izzard because we happened to be on his route. "
Very sorry to hear @Easterross has been lost to the site .... even if he decided to vote against "Our Viscount" which of course should be a capital offence.
@Easterross should have been allowed to continue posting on PB even as he was led up the steps of the gallows.
JackW - Fair, just and compassionate to the end.
Let us each and all demand his return.
I'll second that.
Brother and sister in law thinking of voting tactically for labour in ed south. Ian Murray had done as good job with sorting out our local park my brother says! I'm desperately trying to dissuade them following the advice of rifkind and forsythe. They're yesterday's failed scots tories. Why anyone should listen to them is beyond me!
A grand eve-of-poll amnesty to all banned posters would be a splendid gesture IMO.
- Galloway. - Tristram Hunt - patronising. - Ummuna - far too self-regarding and if he's the next best hope for Labour, God help them. Stella Creasey or Liz Kendall are the people to whom they should be looking. - Caroline Lucas - the level of self-righteousness that comes out of her mouth ought to be enough to power the entire country, if only it could be harnessed. - all of the more idiotic Tory backwoodsmen (Bone / Dorries etc). - Jeremy Corbyn and Andy Slaughter: hopelessly unprogressive. - Tom Watson: more preening self-righteousness. Having to pay for his own food will do his figure good. - Harman: gives feminism a bad name.
People who I hope will win: my local Lib Dem candidate - Maajid Nawaz and most Lib Dem MPs. They have - whatever other faults they may have - largely behaved like grown-ups.
Of course, none of this will happen, sadly, except - maybe - Galloway.
''I cannot call it... from all the mood music, the tories seems to be feeling fairly comfortable, but they must be seeing something (along with the punters) that the polls aren't.''
A couple of tory canvassers posted last night that on the ground, they reckon there is no swing to labour in South West London. Zilch, nothing, nada.
The tory leadership must be calculating that all they need is for their vote in England to stay rock solid, and the labour vote to simply not turn up.
One thing I do feel is that this election has been hugely low-key compared with 2010, which is odd, and which should work in the Tories favour.
That Dan Hodges link just posted shows that theres evidence for people not even knowing there's an election on, which brings into question some of the prompted polling methods.
If the ARSE is true, then Miliband will have resigned by next week and taken his limestone slab with him
I can’t see even an indulgent Labour party interpreting a net loss of seats from Brown as going backwards.
Undoubtedly. It would be incontrovertibly be an ignominious failure. To be honest, I think Ed would resign before being pushed if that were the result.
''That Dan Hodges link just posted shows that theres evidence for people not even knowing there's an election on, which brings into question some of the prompted polling methods.''
Whatever the result, ths election is going to smash some reputations and end some careers.
Any views on Cameron's heart not being quite in it, and the possibility he might not be too unhappy at letting miliband have a stab at leading a weak and unstable government?
Is there a point where some tories might secretly hope that if they aren't going to clearly win, they might prefer to narrowly lose as next best?
I wouldn't have thought so. Failing to win against Brown and then losing to Miliband is not a legacy any Tory PM would not fight like crazy to avoid.
''That Dan Hodges link just posted shows that theres evidence for people not even knowing there's an election on, which brings into question some of the prompted polling methods.''
Whatever the result, ths election is going to smash some reputations and end some careers.
May I cyber-canvass you to support the Blue Lovelies in Esher on Thursday?
I'd agree with most of those - I met Mr Corbyn as an invited special guest when I worked at DWP in Whitehall. He wears a great deal of corduroy and comes across as the most dreary worthy and rather Puritanical sort - with a twist of Greenham Common.
IIRC he has one of the lowest expenses claims. His views aren't mine. He's the sort I'd dread sitting next to at a wedding reception.
- Galloway. - Tristram Hunt - patronising. - Ummuna - far too self-regarding and if he's the next best hope for Labour, God help them. Stella Creasey or Liz Kendall are the people to whom they should be looking. - Caroline Lucas - the level of self-righteousness that comes out of her mouth ought to be enough to power the entire country, if only it could be harnessed. - all of the more idiotic Tory backwoodsmen (Bone / Dorries etc). - Jeremy Corbyn and Andy Slaughter: hopelessly unprogressive. - Tom Watson: more preening self-righteousness. Having to pay for his own food will do his figure good. - Harman: gives feminism a bad name.
People who I hope will win: my local Lib Dem candidate - Maajid Nawaz and most Lib Dem MPs. They have - whatever other faults they may have - largely behaved like grown-ups.
Of course, none of this will happen, sadly, except - maybe - Galloway.
''That Dan Hodges link just posted shows that theres evidence for people not even knowing there's an election on, which brings into question some of the prompted polling methods.''
Whatever the result, ths election is going to smash some reputations and end some careers.
Sadly being wrong hardly ever ends a pundit's career.
It looks like almost all of pb.coms venerable sages now have the Tories in a fairly tight 20 seat band from 284 to 304 seats.
Big difference between the former and the latter, though, in terms of governance.
JackWs prediction gives an overall majority of 14 - I'd expect that to last 2-3 years because I am convinced there will be up to a further half-a-dozen UKIP defections from the Tories in the next parliament.
''That Dan Hodges link just posted shows that theres evidence for people not even knowing there's an election on, which brings into question some of the prompted polling methods.''
Whatever the result, ths election is going to smash some reputations and end some careers.
Sadly being wrong hardly ever ends a pundit's career.
My Jacobite equivalent of M, the head of MI5 - JISM (Jacobite Intelligence Services Mastermind) advises me the short break in PB reception this morning was caused by the vast number of my ARSE adherents trying to access PB before its final incarnation in its normal form at 9:00am this morning.
Be patient my followers, the ARSE will be revealed in its full splendour very shortly.
Presumptuous, I know, but .... what exactly is the ARSE ?
and lastly I apply the ARSE filter.
that last sentence sounds suspiciously like "lastly I just make it up"
I wasn't around when it happened, but I believe it was because Easterross criticised OGH and John Curtice in a thread. I doubt my post on this subject will last the duration of this thread. But I feel pretty strongly about a decision like this on a site that allowed some pretty strong and prolonged abuse to some regular posters to go unchecked for years while being extremely thin skinned about any criticism of their own opinions. And especially after they have on more than one occasion tried to undermine particular posters like Easterross. At the end of the day, who has contributed more to the site on a regular basis, Easteross or MalcolmG?
FPT. "franklyn Posts: 31 May 4 We haven't heard from Easteross for a while; would value his latest insights"
Sadly, Easteross was banned from PB.com a wee while ago, some castigate him for a Scots Tory surge that didn't happen while totally ignoring fact that he got it right on Libdem seat drop at last GE. But you can still contact him via twitter @M Sutherland-Fisher to get his 2015 GE predictions.
Banned for what? I don't remember Easteross as a particularly abrasive poster or one that got into huge spats with anybody.
Away you useless Tory halfwit , you would not recognise a contribution if it slapped you on the face. Keep your personal hatred of me out of it you whinging halfwit, stick to talking mince about Tory surges.
Moderators
This is uncalled for and should be deleted.
Away you big jessie, go abuse your servants
Politeness costs nothing.
Well she should have thought of that before insulting me, it was unwarranted and uncalled for. She should follow her compatriot for unsolicited insulting of a poster. You need to mind your own business as well.
''I cannot call it... from all the mood music, the tories seems to be feeling fairly comfortable, but they must be seeing something (along with the punters) that the polls aren't.''
A couple of tory canvassers posted last night that on the ground, they reckon there is no swing to labour in South West London. Zilch, nothing, nada.
The tory leadership must be calculating that all they need is for their vote in England to stay rock solid, and the labour vote to simply not turn up.
One thing I do feel is that this election has been hugely low-key compared with 2010, which is odd, and which should work in the Tories favour.
That Dan Hodges link just posted shows that theres evidence for people not even knowing there's an election on, which brings into question some of the prompted polling methods.
II am thinking more and more that the Labour Uncut article re postal voting is credible - presumably all the parties would have the same access and it would explain a lot of the actions / commentary we have seen over the past several days - the New Statesman suggesting several "nailed-on" gains may not be so; Labour suggesting they could form the next government even without the most seats; the Lib Dems suddenly releasing their supposedly private conversations with the Conservatives; and the Conservatives' increasing confidence.
The one unknown unknown is the effect of shy red kippers - but I am getting more confident the impact will be heavier for Labour than people expect.
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the final ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Changes From 2nd May Projection) :
Con 304 (-2) .. Lab 249 (+2) .. LibDem 28 (NC) .. SNP 42 (NC) .. PC 3 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 3 .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1
"JackW Dozen" - 13 seats that will shape the General Election result :
Bury North - Con Hold Pudsey - Likely Con Hold Broxtowe - Likely Lab Gain Warwickshire North - Likely Con Hold Cambridge - LibDem Hold Ipswich - Con Hold Watford - TCTC Croydon Central - Con Hold Enfield North - Likely Lab Gain Cornwall North - Likely LibDem Hold from TCTC Great Yarmouth - Con Hold Vale of Glamorgan - Con Hold Ochil and South Perthshire - SNP Gain
Changes From 2 May - Cornwall North moves from TCTC to Likely LibDem Hold
TCTC - Too Close To Call - Less than 500 votes Likely Hold/Gain - 500 - 2500 votes Gain/Hold - Over 2500 .......................................................................................
ARSE is sponsored by Auchentennach Fine Pies (Est 1745)
WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division JNN - Jacobite News Network ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors APLOMB - Auchentennach Pies Leading Outsales Mainland Britain
For Con to have a seat total almost exactly the same as they go in 2010 with Lab down on 2010 will be seen as quite a shocking result, given the polls, etc...
I wasn't around when it happened, but I believe it was because Easterross criticised OGH and John Curtice in a thread. I doubt my post on this subject will last the duration of this thread. But I feel pretty strongly about a decision like this on a site that allowed some pretty strong and prolonged abuse to some regular posters to go unchecked for years while being extremely thin skinned about any criticism of their own opinions. And especially after they have on more than one occasion tried to undermine particular posters like Easterross. At the end of the day, who has contributed more to the site on a regular basis, Easteross or MalcolmG?
FPT. "franklyn Posts: 31 May 4 We haven't heard from Easteross for a while; would value his latest insights"
Sadly, Easteross was banned from PB.com a wee while ago, some castigate him for a Scots Tory surge that didn't happen while totally ignoring fact that he got it right on Libdem seat drop at last GE. But you can still contact him via twitter @M Sutherland-Fisher to get his 2015 GE predictions.
Banned for what? I don't remember Easteross as a particularly abrasive poster or one that got into huge spats with anybody.
Away you useless Tory halfwit , you would not recognise a contribution if it slapped you on the face. Keep your personal hatred of me out of it you whinging halfwit, stick to talking mince about Tory surges.
Moderators
This is uncalled for and should be deleted.
The best thing to do is what I have decided to do. Ignore anything Malcolm G posts . If he insults someone he will just look the fool he regularly presents himself as..
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the final ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Changes From 2nd May Projection) :
Con 304 (-2) .. Lab 249 (+2) .. LibDem 28 (NC) .. SNP 42 (NC) .. PC 3 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 3 .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1
"JackW Dozen" - 13 seats that will shape the General Election result :
Bury North - Con Hold Pudsey - Likely Con Hold Broxtowe - Likely Lab Gain Warwickshire North - Likely Con Hold Cambridge - LibDem Hold Ipswich - Con Hold Watford - TCTC Croydon Central - Con Hold Enfield North - Likely Lab Gain Cornwall North - Likely LibDem Hold from TCTC Great Yarmouth - Con Hold Vale of Glamorgan - Con Hold Ochil and South Perthshire - SNP Gain
Changes From 2 May - Cornwall North moves from TCTC to Likely LibDem Hold
TCTC - Too Close To Call - Less than 500 votes Likely Hold/Gain - 500 - 2500 votes Gain/Hold - Over 2500 .......................................................................................
ARSE is sponsored by Auchentennach Fine Pies (Est 1745)
WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division JNN - Jacobite News Network ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors APLOMB - Auchentennach Pies Leading Outsales Mainland Britain
Interesting Jack ... Do you predict Coalition 2.0 or is Clegg gone?
Clegg will retain Hallam without any undue drama albeit with a notably reduced majority.
The ARSE numbers indicate "Coalition 2.0" and after a considerable amount of piss and wind I'd expect both parties to knuckle down and get on with the serious business of stable government for another five years.
It looks like almost all of pb.coms venerable sages now have the Tories in a fairly tight 20 seat band from 284 to 304 seats.
Big difference between the former and the latter, though, in terms of governance.
JackWs prediction gives an overall majority of 14 - I'd expect that to last 2-3 years because I am convinced there will be up to a further half-a-dozen UKIP defections from the Tories in the next parliament.
Given the closeness of the polls, and the rise of UKIP, the crash of the Lib Dems and the vertiginous ascent of the SNP over the last five years, there is a high chance that the consensus is quite wrong.
The answer to the question that this post asks is "No". To say "Yes" would be a) to fall into the gambler's fallacy, and b) to show an ignorance of margins of error.
That's not the Gambler's Fallacy, the Gambler's Fallacy would be:
Angus Reid made a massive horlicks of the polling last time - does that mean it's their turn to be right?
Oops - I've just woken up. You're right. I stand corrected! But it would be drawing a conclusion from far too small a sample, given that they all quote margins of error and that one gets it closer than the others one time means little.
YouGov's MoE is probably not actually that big, thanks to the technique they use close to elections to weight/sample to recent voting intention, which does a lot to reduce statistical noise. You see this in the lack of volatility of their recent polls, which as a few people here have observed is less than you'd expect from a pure random sample.
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the final ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Changes From 2nd May Projection) :
Con 304 (-2) .. Lab 249 (+2) .. LibDem 28 (NC) .. SNP 42 (NC) .. PC 3 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 3 .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1
"JackW Dozen" - 13 seats that will shape the General Election result :
Bury North - Con Hold Pudsey - Likely Con Hold Broxtowe - Likely Lab Gain Warwickshire North - Likely Con Hold Cambridge - LibDem Hold Ipswich - Con Hold Watford - TCTC Croydon Central - Con Hold Enfield North - Likely Lab Gain Cornwall North - Likely LibDem Hold from TCTC Great Yarmouth - Con Hold Vale of Glamorgan - Con Hold Ochil and South Perthshire - SNP Gain
Changes From 2 May - Cornwall North moves from TCTC to Likely LibDem Hold
TCTC - Too Close To Call - Less than 500 votes Likely Hold/Gain - 500 - 2500 votes Gain/Hold - Over 2500 .......................................................................................
ARSE is sponsored by Auchentennach Fine Pies (Est 1745)
WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division JNN - Jacobite News Network ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors APLOMB - Auchentennach Pies Leading Outsales Mainland Britain
Interesting Jack ... Do you predict Coalition 2.0 or is Clegg gone?
Clegg will retain Hallam without any undue drama albeit with a notably reduced majority.
The ARSE numbers indicate "Coalition 2.0" and after a considerable amount of piss and wind I'd expect both parties to knuckle down and get on with the serious business of stable government for another five years.
Seems too good to be true.
I think there are more betting opportunities with a piss weak Miliband Gov't personally, also could do with Sterling weakening a touch (Exporter here)
FPT. "franklyn Posts: 31 May 4 We haven't heard from Easteross for a while; would value his latest insights"
Sadly, Easteross was banned from PB.com a wee while ago, some castigate him for a Scots Tory surge that didn't happen while totally ignoring fact that he got it right on Libdem seat drop at last GE. But you can still contact him via twitter @M Sutherland-Fisher to get his 2015 GE predictions.
Easteross always seemed an old school polite gent. What on earth did he do to get himeself banned?
Todays BJESUS (maybe final one depending on WIFI n Devon)
5.5.15 LAB 287 (288) CON 272(272) LD 29(29) UKIP 3(2) Others 59(59) (Ed is crap is PM) Last weeks BJESUS in brackets BJESUS (Big John Election Service Uniform Swing) BJESUS (Big John Election Service Uniform Swing) Using current polling adjusted for 2 days left to go factor and using UKPR standard swingometer
My Jacobite equivalent of M, the head of MI5 - JISM (Jacobite Intelligence Services Mastermind) advises me the short break in PB reception this morning was caused by the vast number of my ARSE adherents trying to access PB before its final incarnation in its normal form at 9:00am this morning.
Be patient my followers, the ARSE will be revealed in its full splendour very shortly.
Presumptuous, I know, but .... what exactly is the ARSE ?
and lastly I apply the ARSE filter.
that last sentence sounds suspiciously like "lastly I just make it up"
The ARSE filter adjustment, small though it is, has edged the last two US and UK general election projections to utter brilliance in complete contrast to the ARSE denier status of your miserable little post that clearly is tainted by a stunning bout of green eyed mosteritis.
Go back to your constituency and prepare for ignominy.
It looks like almost all of pb.coms venerable sages now have the Tories in a fairly tight 20 seat band from 284 to 304 seats.
Big difference between the former and the latter, though, in terms of governance.
JackWs prediction gives an overall majority of 14 - I'd expect that to last 2-3 years because I am convinced there will be up to a further half-a-dozen UKIP defections from the Tories in the next parliament.
Given the closeness of the polls, and the rise of UKIP, the crash of the Lib Dems and the vertiginous ascent of the SNP over the last five years, there is a high chance that the consensus is quite wrong.
It was reporeted at the weekend that CCHQ have ordered candidates not in 40/40 seats to descend on those seats over the next 72 hours and abandon their respective constituencies. One PPC affected by this told me that CCHQ were deluded in thinking that all these other no hope seats had "Panzer divisions" that they could move across to these 40/40 seats when the reality is that these divisions of Tanks do not exist. This one candidate told CCHQ to go and take a running jump..didnt go down too well i gather..
''I cannot call it... from all the mood music, the tories seems to be feeling fairly comfortable, but they must be seeing something (along with the punters) that the polls aren't.''
A couple of tory canvassers posted last night that on the ground, they reckon there is no swing to labour in South West London. Zilch, nothing, nada.
The tory leadership must be calculating that all they need is for their vote in England to stay rock solid, and the labour vote to simply not turn up.
One thing I do feel is that this election has been hugely low-key compared with 2010, which is odd, and which should work in the Tories favour.
That Dan Hodges link just posted shows that theres evidence for people not even knowing there's an election on, which brings into question some of the prompted polling methods.
II am thinking more and more that the Labour Uncut article re postal voting is credible - presumably all the parties would have the same access and it would explain a lot of the actions / commentary we have seen over the past several days - the New Statesman suggesting several "nailed-on" gains may not be so; Labour suggesting they could form the next government even without the most seats; the Lib Dems suddenly releasing their supposedly private conversations with the Conservatives; and the Conservatives' increasing confidence.
The one unknown unknown is the effect of shy red kippers - but I am getting more confident the impact will be heavier for Labour than people expect.
Indeed. Ihave money on labour most seats, but not even at the odds given now, if i had more money i would be topping them up, becuase the polls are clearly providing that to be value.
But all the movement behind the scenes and the reporting/rumours seem to be different.
My Jacobite equivalent of M, the head of MI5 - JISM (Jacobite Intelligence Services Mastermind) advises me the short break in PB reception this morning was caused by the vast number of my ARSE adherents trying to access PB before its final incarnation in its normal form at 9:00am this morning.
Be patient my followers, the ARSE will be revealed in its full splendour very shortly.
Presumptuous, I know, but .... what exactly is the ARSE ?
and lastly I apply the ARSE filter.
that last sentence sounds suspiciously like "lastly I just make it up"
By their fruits ye shall know them, and unless you have changed identities you were not around to savour the spot-on accuracy of Jack's delectable ARSEfruit in 2010. Research his track record, and post your own counter-predictions if you dare (you daren't), but don't make accusations like that.
I'd agree with most of those - I met Mr Corbyn as an invited special guest when I worked at DWP in Whitehall. He wears a great deal of corduroy and comes across as the most dreary worthy and rather Puritanical sort - with a twist of Greenham Common.
IIRC he has one of the lowest expenses claims. His views aren't mine. He's the sort I'd dread sitting next to at a wedding reception.
- Galloway. - Tristram Hunt - patronising. - Ummuna - far too self-regarding and if he's the next best hope for Labour, God help them. Stella Creasey or Liz Kendall are the people to whom they should be looking. - Caroline Lucas - the level of self-righteousness that comes out of her mouth ought to be enough to power the entire country, if only it could be harnessed. - all of the more idiotic Tory backwoodsmen (Bone / Dorries etc). - Jeremy Corbyn and Andy Slaughter: hopelessly unprogressive. - Tom Watson: more preening self-righteousness. Having to pay for his own food will do his figure good. - Harman: gives feminism a bad name.
People who I hope will win: my local Lib Dem candidate - Maajid Nawaz and most Lib Dem MPs. They have - whatever other faults they may have - largely behaved like grown-ups.
Of course, none of this will happen, sadly, except - maybe - Galloway.
As a corduroy devotee I resent this implied slur on the king of fabrics.
I wasn't around when it happened, but I believe it was because Easterross criticised OGH and John Curtice in a thread. I doubt my post on this subject will last the duration of this thread. But I feel pretty strongly about a decision like this on a site that allowed some pretty strong and prolonged abuse to some regular posters to go unchecked for years while being extremely thin skinned about any criticism of their own opinions. And especially after they have on more than one occasion tried to undermine particular posters like Easterross. At the end of the day, who has contributed more to the site on a regular basis, Easteross or MalcolmG?
FPT. "franklyn Posts: 31 May 4 We haven't heard from Easteross for a while; would value his latest insights"
Sadly, Easteross was banned from PB.com a wee while ago, some castigate him for a Scots Tory surge that didn't happen while totally ignoring fact that he got it right on Libdem seat drop at last GE. But you can still contact him via twitter @M Sutherland-Fisher to get his 2015 GE predictions.
Banned for what? I don't remember Easteross as a particularly abrasive poster or one that got into huge spats with anybody.
Away you useless Tory halfwit , you would not recognise a contribution if it slapped you on the face. Keep your personal hatred of me out of it you whinging halfwit, stick to talking mince about Tory surges.
Moderators
This is uncalled for and should be deleted.
Away you big jessie, go abuse your servants
Politeness costs nothing.
Somebody should remind our PM of that the next time he calls someone a fruitcake, it might save him some votes.
Given that he's apologised for an insult that was 9 years ago (and - at the time - was arguably true) some might think it polite to forgive and forget
My Jacobite equivalent of M, the head of MI5 - JISM (Jacobite Intelligence Services Mastermind) advises me the short break in PB reception this morning was caused by the vast number of my ARSE adherents trying to access PB before its final incarnation in its normal form at 9:00am this morning.
Be patient my followers, the ARSE will be revealed in its full splendour very shortly.
Presumptuous, I know, but .... what exactly is the ARSE ?
and lastly I apply the ARSE filter.
that last sentence sounds suspiciously like "lastly I just make it up"
I wasn't around when it happened, but I believe it was because Easterross criticised OGH and John Curtice in a thread. I doubt my post on this subject will last the duration of this thread. But I feel pretty strongly about a decision like this on a site that allowed some pretty strong and prolonged abuse to some regular posters to go unchecked for years while being extremely thin skinned about any criticism of their own opinions. And especially after they have on more than one occasion tried to undermine particular posters like Easterross. At the end of the day, who has contributed more to the site on a regular basis, Easteross or MalcolmG?
FPT. "franklyn Posts: 31 May 4 We haven't heard from Easteross for a while; would value his latest insights"
Sadly, Easteross was banned from PB.com a wee while ago, some castigate him for a Scots Tory surge that didn't happen while totally ignoring fact that he got it right on Libdem seat drop at last GE. But you can still contact him via twitter @M Sutherland-Fisher to get his 2015 GE predictions.
Banned for what? I don't remember Easteross as a particularly abrasive poster or one that got into huge spats with anybody.
Away you useless Tory halfwit , you would not recognise a contribution if it slapped you on the face. Keep your personal hatred of me out of it you whinging halfwit, stick to talking mince about Tory surges.
Moderators
This is uncalled for and should be deleted.
The best thing to do is what I have decided to do. Ignore anything Malcolm G posts . If he insults someone he will just look the fool he regularly presents himself as..
Someone has to gently point out to the world the arse that he is.
If this poll is accurately representing the CON-LAB vote shares and can be translated directly to English marginals why is Ed Miliband visiting North Warwickshire at this stage? That should surely already be in the bag if they thought they were going to get the 3.5% swing implied by this poll.
Firstly because nobody knows whether this poll is right, including Ed Miliband.
Secondly because even if this poll is right, there are still two days to go.
Thirdly because the seats don't all swing uniformly - some will go Lab by quite a lot more than the average, and some by less, even to the point of swinging in the opposite direction.
The Con majority is 56 and and the incumbent has stepped down. We were target 70 something last time round and didn't get a leader visit as we were seen as in the bag. Very odd for the leader to be going to target number 1 in the last few days and indicates a state of panic at Labour HQ which beat the UNS last time such was its knowledge of the ground war.
Todays BJESUS (maybe final one depending on WIFI n Devon)
5.5.15 LAB 287 (288) CON 272(272) LD 29(29) UKIP 3(2) Others 59(59) (Ed is crap is PM) Last weeks BJESUS in brackets BJESUS (Big John Election Service Uniform Swing) BJESUS (Big John Election Service Uniform Swing) Using current polling adjusted for 2 days left to go factor and using UKPR standard swingometer
BJO. I haven't a clue what the result is going to be, but if you're wrong you probably know you're likely to get dog's abuse from some posters. If that happens, I would urge you to continue posting. I value your insights and it is really important to have some dissenting voices in the face of the tory majority on this site.
Yep, the Indy was actually rather critical of the Tories. It was a LibDem endorsement and a recognition that the best chance for them to get back into power is via a deal with the Tories. I thought it was a pretty decent piece. Given its stance, the Indy's news reporting has been exceptional - it is the only paper whose own views have not affected the way it has covered events on its news pages.
I like the *zipping* sound it makes when you walk in trousers. Wearing a Jimmi Hendrix style cap hat and jacket and strides made him look like Victoria Wood... in forest green.
I'd agree with most of those - I met Mr Corbyn as an invited special guest when I worked at DWP in Whitehall. He wears a great deal of corduroy and comes across as the most dreary worthy and rather Puritanical sort - with a twist of Greenham Common.
IIRC he has one of the lowest expenses claims. His views aren't mine. He's the sort I'd dread sitting next to at a wedding reception.
- Galloway. - Tristram Hunt - patronising. - Ummuna - far too self-regarding and if he's the next best hope for Labour, God help them. Stella Creasey or Liz Kendall are the people to whom they should be looking. - Caroline Lucas - the level of self-righteousness that comes out of her mouth ought to be enough to power the entire country, if only it could be harnessed. - all of the more idiotic Tory backwoodsmen (Bone / Dorries etc). - Jeremy Corbyn and Andy Slaughter: hopelessly unprogressive. - Tom Watson: more preening self-righteousness. Having to pay for his own food will do his figure good. - Harman: gives feminism a bad name.
People who I hope will win: my local Lib Dem candidate - Maajid Nawaz and most Lib Dem MPs. They have - whatever other faults they may have - largely behaved like grown-ups.
Of course, none of this will happen, sadly, except - maybe - Galloway.
As a corduroy devotee I resent this implied slur on the king of fabrics.
What are the CON & LAB campaign schedules for tommorow.
Dave is visiting Bootle I think, as well as East Ham, Banff & Buchan
Dave is finishing with a rally in Carlisle of all places (at least it is not Sheffield) to which pretty much everyone on their mailing list has been invited. Unless he wants to hammer home the SNP threat message I cannot for the life of me work out what he would be doing in Banff and Buchan.
It looks like almost all of pb.coms venerable sages now have the Tories in a fairly tight 20 seat band from 284 to 304 seats.
Big difference between the former and the latter, though, in terms of governance.
JackWs prediction gives an overall majority of 14 - I'd expect that to last 2-3 years because I am convinced there will be up to a further half-a-dozen UKIP defections from the Tories in the next parliament.
Given the closeness of the polls, and the rise of UKIP, the crash of the Lib Dems and the vertiginous ascent of the SNP over the last five years, there is a high chance that the consensus is quite wrong.
Going to make a prediction ?
It's very tempting to say "no".
Given the relatively low vote shares that many seats will be won with, this election may well still be capable of being won and lost quite convincingly by either of the main parties.
But what the heck. If you force me to, I'm going to go with the following, reflecting what seems to be the superior Labour ground game in England and Wales:
Was in Surrey Quays this morning. Only two placards - a giant UKIP banner hanging from a fifth-floor flat, and a smaller Labour poster nearby. Simon Hughes was handing leaflets out at Canada Water tube. I kindly informed him I don't live in the constituency but, in mine, will be voting Lib Dem in the locals. He seemed happy with that.
Probably coincidence but the releasing of the FoI request re Rotherham probably not that helpful for Labour
There was an interesting interview this morning with the new Police Commissioner for the area who said - and I think there is probably a high degree of truth in this - that no-one took child prostitution seriously. They thought of the girls as participants rather than as victims. The fact that they were legally children and therefore quite unable to consent - a fact which you would have thought that policemen would know - was simply ignored, no doubt because it suited all and sundry for a variety of reasons which have been well-rehearsed, not to get involved. But fundamentally no-one cared at all or enough about these children, other than perhaps their poor families.
I do, however, feel uneasy about using this in a party political sense. Child abuse is not the preserve of any one political party. It is more a lesson about having one party in power for so long or so confident of victory that it develops contempt for its voters (see SLAB) and sometimes contempt for the law (see Tower Hamlets).
Either elaborate bluff, or Tories now convinced they've got this.
Isn;t this what the Ashcroft polling has been about all along? shocking the tory leadership out of its complacency?
Yes - given the way the polls have been the Tories may well be suffering Romney-style complacency and Labour seem far too downbeat given that as our own BJO regularly tells us it is likely that EICIPM.
Mine was a paraphrase, not a literal transcription - the key phrases were separated by John Humphries chuntering on.
It came across to a half awake listener as the Independent being opposed to the Tories - which I'm not sure they are having read the editorial last night (I reckon they are basically ABL, but preference for LibDems in LD/C marginals)
My Jacobite equivalent of M, the head of MI5 - JISM (Jacobite Intelligence Services Mastermind) advises me the short break in PB reception this morning was caused by the vast number of my ARSE adherents trying to access PB before its final incarnation in its normal form at 9:00am this morning.
Be patient my followers, the ARSE will be revealed in its full splendour very shortly.
Presumptuous, I know, but .... what exactly is the ARSE ?
and lastly I apply the ARSE filter.
that last sentence sounds suspiciously like "lastly I just make it up"
By their fruits ye shall know them, and unless you have changed identities you were not around to savour the spot-on accuracy of Jack's delectable ARSEfruit in 2010. Research his track record, and post your own counter-predictions if you dare (you daren't), but don't make accusations like that.
Does anyone have a record of the final ARSE projection for GE2010?
The comments from that time no longer exist, unless saved in an internet archive somewhere. My recollection was that the ARSE forecast a very large number of Liberal Democrat gains, but my memory is not the most reliable and I would like to see the actual figures.
It looks like almost all of pb.coms venerable sages now have the Tories in a fairly tight 20 seat band from 284 to 304 seats.
Big difference between the former and the latter, though, in terms of governance.
JackWs prediction gives an overall majority of 14 - I'd expect that to last 2-3 years because I am convinced there will be up to a further half-a-dozen UKIP defections from the Tories in the next parliament.
Given the closeness of the polls, and the rise of UKIP, the crash of the Lib Dems and the vertiginous ascent of the SNP over the last five years, there is a high chance that the consensus is quite wrong.
What's your view on the result, antifrank? If your feet were held to the fire..
@Charles - thank you, that's very kind. Yes, I'd certainly be interested in hearing more about it.
Please do VM me if you wish.
Off to galivant around Europe for a few days, but will put you in touch with Matthew Elliott when I get back. Can you PM an email address I can use for you?
Although, as pointed out down thread, these results were not particularly accurate when compared to the GB figures Mike is right that Yougov underestimated both of the main parties fairly equally and therefore got the gap between them very close. This should indeed cause those who have convinced themselves that the phone poll are not only more in line with their own desires but clearly preferable to pause.
And then, in my opinion, move on again. My biggest concern about Yougov this time around is that in many ways they are victims of their own success. Last time they had a large and new enough panel to be broadly representative which had not been exhausted by daily polling month after month after month.
We have had posters on here who have said that they have completed 3 or even 6 polls recently. One admires the perseverance of such posters whose political geekism marks them out as being in no way typical of the average Brit. We have also seen disproportionate numbers watching the debates and generally having an awareness that an election is on. I fear that their panel has become dominated by political partisans who will not change their position no matter what resulting in almost no movement.
The results are only 2 days away but I am fairly sure that they will show that this persistent tie (within MoE) that Yougov have given us for weeks now is not accurate. I expect the Tories to get the most votes. Whether this will be by enough to give them the most seats is harder to call. The answer would clearly have been no but for Scotland but now I expect it to be really close which makes the 80% probability on Betfair and the 25 seat lead on SPIN look out of line to me.
Could it be argued that using a fixed panel might be better at detecting movement /switches than phone polls that use an entirely different set of respondents each time? I don't know but we don't have long to wait to find out.
I am interested to see whether the final batch of phone polls show as big a difference to the onlines as last week, starting today, I believe, with Lord A who had a Tory lead of 6% and Labour on 29% from memory, last week.
My Jacobite equivalent of M, the head of MI5 - JISM (Jacobite Intelligence Services Mastermind) advises me the short break in PB reception this morning was caused by the vast number of my ARSE adherents trying to access PB before its final incarnation in its normal form at 9:00am this morning.
Be patient my followers, the ARSE will be revealed in its full splendour very shortly.
Presumptuous, I know, but .... what exactly is the ARSE ?
and lastly I apply the ARSE filter.
that last sentence sounds suspiciously like "lastly I just make it up"
By their fruits ye shall know them, and unless you have changed identities you were not around to savour the spot-on accuracy of Jack's delectable ARSEfruit in 2010. Research his track record, and post your own counter-predictions if you dare (you daren't), but don't make accusations like that.
I was around then, although not posting.
Getting something right previously doesn't automatically make you right next time, my wife picked the winner in the Grand National but she knows bugger all about horses. He's just admitted he makes it up (everyone knew this anyway). That's fine, gut feel and read of mood are important tools, but it's not scientific at all.
If you want a prediction, here's mine
Cons 281 Lib Dems 25 Labour 271 SNP 51 NI 18 Green 1 UKIP 1 Respect 1 Speaker 1
It's based on polling / economic indicators / tarot cards
Comments
- The gap between phone & internet pollsters and
- The absence of an 'outlier' in YouGov's now ±30 polls
Of course, as Nate Silver wisely observes, the polls may well be biased - just not in the way you hope....
My wish list (nearer fantasy as very few if any of these are likely to happen);
Esther McVey hangs on...
Tristram Hunt gets chucked out....(what is it with London Labour & Northern seats?)
Alec Salmond doesn't get in.....
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the final ARSE with added APLOMB 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Changes From 2nd May Projection) :
Con 304 (-2) .. Lab 249 (+2) .. LibDem 28 (NC) .. SNP 42 (NC) .. PC 3 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 3 .. Respect 1 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1
Conservatives 22 seats short of a majority
Turnout Projection .. 67.5% (NC)
......................................................................................
"JackW Dozen" - 13 seats that will shape the General Election result :
Bury North - Con Hold
Pudsey - Likely Con Hold
Broxtowe - Likely Lab Gain
Warwickshire North - Likely Con Hold
Cambridge - LibDem Hold
Ipswich - Con Hold
Watford - TCTC
Croydon Central - Con Hold
Enfield North - Likely Lab Gain
Cornwall North - Likely LibDem Hold from TCTC
Great Yarmouth - Con Hold
Vale of Glamorgan - Con Hold
Ochil and South Perthshire - SNP Gain
Changes From 2 May - Cornwall North moves from TCTC to Likely LibDem Hold
TCTC - Too Close To Call - Less than 500 votes
Likely Hold/Gain - 500 - 2500 votes
Gain/Hold - Over 2500
.......................................................................................
ARSE is sponsored by Auchentennach Fine Pies (Est 1745)
WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division
JNN - Jacobite News Network
ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors
APLOMB - Auchentennach Pies Leading Outsales Mainland Britain
Isn;t this what the Ashcroft polling has been about all along? shocking the tory leadership out of its complacency?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/general-election-2015/politics-blog/11581766/What-does-the-SNP-surge-look-like-up-close.html
Watford has been one of the trickiest seats to analyse and hopefully I shall be able to offer PB some clarity later today.
when comparing the 2010 vs 2015 yougov numbers, would the % of undecided voters be the same?
If not they could break to alter the actual vote from the poll.
The only manual adjustment I have done is for the 3 UKIP seats. Clacton, Thanet S from the Tories and Thurrock from Labour. That's it. The rest are just stats.
I do not claim constituency level knowledge.
Con 266, Lab 281, LD 18, UKIP 3, GRN 1, PC 3, SPK 1 Total = 573
add: Scotland
Con 0, Lab 5, LD 1, SNP 53
Total based on Yougov 04/05/15
Con 266, Lab 286, LD 19, UKIP 3, GRN 1, PC 3, SPK 1, SNP 53 Total = 632
Bury North - Likely Lab Gain
Warwickshire North - Lab Gain
Ipswich - TCTC
Watfrod - TCTC (Lib Dem/Con)
Croydon Central - TCTC
imo
I can’t see even an indulgent Labour party interpreting a net loss of seats from Brown as going backwards.
A couple of tory canvassers posted last night that on the ground, they reckon there is no swing to labour in South West London. Zilch, nothing, nada.
The tory leadership must be calculating that all they need is for their vote in England to stay rock solid, and the labour vote to simply not turn up.
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/editorials/in-defence-of-liberal-democracy-10224221.html
Read the whole thing: as one-line summaries go, it is fair enough. If anything, the Indy is more pro-LibDem than indicated.
The ARSE numbers indicate "Coalition 2.0" and after a considerable amount of piss and wind I'd expect both parties to knuckle down and get on with the serious business of stable government for another five years.
and you considered that a plus ?
oh well.
A grand eve-of-poll amnesty to all banned posters would be a splendid gesture IMO.
- Galloway.
- Tristram Hunt - patronising.
- Ummuna - far too self-regarding and if he's the next best hope for Labour, God help them. Stella Creasey or Liz Kendall are the people to whom they should be looking.
- Caroline Lucas - the level of self-righteousness that comes out of her mouth ought to be enough to power the entire country, if only it could be harnessed.
- all of the more idiotic Tory backwoodsmen (Bone / Dorries etc).
- Jeremy Corbyn and Andy Slaughter: hopelessly unprogressive.
- Tom Watson: more preening self-righteousness. Having to pay for his own food will do his figure good.
- Harman: gives feminism a bad name.
People who I hope will win: my local Lib Dem candidate - Maajid Nawaz and most Lib Dem MPs. They have - whatever other faults they may have - largely behaved like grown-ups.
Of course, none of this will happen, sadly, except - maybe - Galloway.
That Dan Hodges link just posted shows that theres evidence for people not even knowing there's an election on, which brings into question some of the prompted polling methods.
Please do VM me if you wish.
Whatever the result, ths election is going to smash some reputations and end some careers.
IIRC he has one of the lowest expenses claims. His views aren't mine. He's the sort I'd dread sitting next to at a wedding reception.
Big difference between the former and the latter, though, in terms of governance.
JackWs prediction gives an overall majority of 14 - I'd expect that to last 2-3 years because I am convinced there will be up to a further half-a-dozen UKIP defections from the Tories in the next parliament.
You need to mind your own business as well.
The one unknown unknown is the effect of shy red kippers - but I am getting more confident the impact will be heavier for Labour than people expect.
Already voted for Dom by post. Councillor too.
See him on the train to Waterloo sometimes, mixing it with the voters.
That for me is worth a hundred leaflets.
That's like Ed Miliband visiting Richmond and Hampshire North East.
Think my ward may be Weston Green but voted blue anyhoo.
It does make a big difference when MPs live in the constituency and rub along with the ordinary folk.
For that reason, I never really took to Dom's predecessor, Ian Taylor.
5.5.15 LAB 287 (288) CON 272(272) LD 29(29) UKIP 3(2) Others 59(59) (Ed is crap is PM)
Last weeks BJESUS in brackets
BJESUS (Big John Election Service Uniform Swing) BJESUS (Big John Election Service Uniform Swing)
Using current polling adjusted for 2 days left to go factor and using UKPR standard swingometer
Go back to your constituency and prepare for ignominy.
This one candidate told CCHQ to go and take a running jump..didnt go down too well i gather..
But all the movement behind the scenes and the reporting/rumours seem to be different.
I've bought a free £12.50 anyway there.
Trust Labour? I'd rather trust Jimmy Savile to babysit, writes RICHARD LITTLEJOHN
http://dailym.ai/1zJMhTf
We really need a Tory @AndreaParma_82 here!
I'm not D'Ancona's biggest fan, but he does know Cameron and his mind and he writes well with a lot of insight.
Given the relatively low vote shares that many seats will be won with, this election may well still be capable of being won and lost quite convincingly by either of the main parties.
But what the heck. If you force me to, I'm going to go with the following, reflecting what seems to be the superior Labour ground game in England and Wales:
Labour: 280
Conservative: 266
SNP: 54
Lib Dem: 21
UKIP 4
Plaid Cymru: 4
Greens: 1
Respect: 1
Speaker: 1
Norn Iron: 18
Labour minority government with passive support (probably not amounting to confidence and supply) from the Lib Dems.
But my betting is based over a much wider range of outcomes than this.
I do, however, feel uneasy about using this in a party political sense. Child abuse is not the preserve of any one political party. It is more a lesson about having one party in power for so long or so confident of victory that it develops contempt for its voters (see SLAB) and sometimes contempt for the law (see Tower Hamlets). Yes - given the way the polls have been the Tories may well be suffering Romney-style complacency and Labour seem far too downbeat given that as our own BJO regularly tells us it is likely that EICIPM.
Or we may all be wrong, of course!
It came across to a half awake listener as the Independent being opposed to the Tories - which I'm not sure they are having read the editorial last night (I reckon they are basically ABL, but preference for LibDems in LD/C marginals)
Not sure if that says more about me, or about CCHQ :-)
The comments from that time no longer exist, unless saved in an internet archive somewhere. My recollection was that the ARSE forecast a very large number of Liberal Democrat gains, but my memory is not the most reliable and I would like to see the actual figures.
I am interested to see whether the final batch of phone polls show as big a difference to the onlines as last week, starting today, I believe, with Lord A who had a Tory lead of 6% and Labour on 29% from memory, last week.
I reckon Ave it will come up trumps on that one.
Getting something right previously doesn't automatically make you right next time, my wife picked the winner in the Grand National but she knows bugger all about horses. He's just admitted he makes it up (everyone knew this anyway). That's fine, gut feel and read of mood are important tools, but it's not scientific at all.
If you want a prediction, here's mine
Cons 281
Lib Dems 25
Labour 271
SNP 51
NI 18
Green 1
UKIP 1
Respect 1
Speaker 1
It's based on polling / economic indicators / tarot cards