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  • AllyPally_RobAllyPally_Rob Posts: 605

    AndyJS said:

    Ed's stones was the moment I knew he'd never be PM.

    It's a "Thick of It" moment which resonates with folk like us, but passes by most people - like The Thick of It did itself.

    I remember that fantastic afternoon on here when Brown had his Gillian Duffy "disaster", the highlight of GE2010 for many of us, yet it resonated nothing with voters. Indeed, it may have caused Brown to get a sympathy uplift.
    I think Duffy went on to vote for Brown, and Rochdale was one of the few Labour gains of 2010 (along with Chesterfield).
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,968
    Mr. T, perhaps. Mood music's a better guide in F1 pre-season testing, because everyone sandbags if fast, and does low-furl, high-speed runs if they need sponsors.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    Pulpstar said:

    Clegg's circumstances are a bit unique. If you want to read across to other candidates, only Jim Murphy is perhaps in a similiar situation.

    High profile and needing CON tacticals whilst pissing on their chips.
  • ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    SeanT said:

    Can someone explain to me in short, pithy sentences, why so many esteemed pb-ers are predicting a Tory plurality ...
    What are they pinning their hopes/fears on? Tory incumbency? Canvass returns? The betting markets? Tory out-performance in the marginals? Superiority of phone polls? A good hard stare into the scrying glass?

    Que?

    All the above (fingers crossed, touch wood, etc.) Good job I only bet in my head, innit?

  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    Ishmael_X said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Ishmael_X said:


    2. The Sheffield effect, the point of which has always been that it doesn't show up in the polls, only at the moment of truth in the polling booth.

    There is no "Sheffield effect" for Labour evident in the ICM poll.

    Labour on THIRTY SEVEN % in Hallam is a very strong indicator that they're doing quite well tbh.

    Hallam is simply not the sort of place Labour should be picking up 37%.
    An effect which is by definition invisible in polls, is invisible in a poll? Golly.
    Is the Sheffield effect in any way evidenced? ie. we know the Sheffield rally was kind of awkward, but is there any verified connection between that event and the delta between poll and actual votes? Because if we're just using it as shorthand for "the polls woz wrong" then extrapolating that that wrongness depresses the Labour vote seems optimistic. Why couldn't the Tory vote be subject to the same problem?

    Genuine question btw, I was quite young in 92.
  • Huge down weighting of UKIP on Populus raw numbers from 273 to 218 to take it from 15% to 13% to join the herd.Virtually no move on the raw numbers from the last poll.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Precisely my thinking too.

    SeanT said:

    Can someone explain to me in short, pithy sentences, why so many esteemed pb-ers are predicting a Tory plurality when the majority of the polls indicate a Labour plurality, even and despite Scotland?

    What are they pinning their hopes/fears on? Tory incumbency? Canvass returns? The betting markets? Tory out-performance in the marginals? Superiority of phone polls? A good hard stare into the scrying glass?

    Que?

    My reasons are:

    1. Superiority of phone polls.
    2. Not a "change" election - eg more people still blame Labour for cuts, favour Tories on economic management, etc.
    3. More Lib Dem seats are vulnerable to Tory challengers than Labour.
    4. Scotland wipeout and differential Lib Dem gains imply a target of 50 Labour gains from Tories to reach parity, which is not supported by Ashcroft marginal polling.
    5. Some plausible UKIP gains - eg Thurrock, Thanet South - are in Conservative seats that would have been likely Labour gains in UKIPs absence, so are in some sense Labour losses when you look at their target list.
    6. History of Labour losing vote share in election after being ejected from government - see 1955, 1974 (Feb) and 1983.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092


    4. Scotland wipeout and differential Lib Dem gains imply a target of 50 Labour gains from Tories to reach parity, which is not supported by Ashcroft marginal polling.

    Taking 32 seats from Lab to SNP, I only get a seat difference of 80. So unless Con are going to get 20 more seats from LD than Lab are, which seems unlikely, that sounds too high.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,232
    Question: How many GB constituencies include islands? Anyone care to list them?
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Midlands swing from Con to Lab down to 1.4% in last two Populus polls.

    SE swing down from 6.5% to 4.7%

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    rcs2000 no, in 2011 at Holyrood the SNP won 45% the Tories 13% across Scotland, so not far off present polls. The Tories and Lamont won 44% in Berwickshire the SNP 26%, however the SNP won 2 of the 3 seats which comprise Dumfrieshire at Westminster, Clydesdale and Midlothian and Tweedale, while Labour won Dumfrieshire itself, so I would expect Westminster to follow the Holyrood pattern and the Tories gain Berwickshire but lose Dumfrieshire
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    edited May 2015

    Question: How many GB constituencies include islands? Anyone care to list them?

    Yns Mon
    Western Isles
    O&S
    Argyll & Bute
    Isle of Wight
    North Ayrshire Arran...

    ?
  • ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    £38m raised for the appeal for Nepal, in a week, in the UK. Not a penny of it from wicked (copyright T Farron Esq) Tories like yer 'umble servant, naturally.
  • SeanT said:

    Can someone explain to me in short, pithy sentences, why so many esteemed pb-ers are predicting a Tory plurality when the majority of the polls indicate a Labour plurality, even and despite Scotland?

    What are they pinning their hopes/fears on? Tory incumbency? Canvass returns? The betting markets? Tory out-performance in the marginals? Superiority of phone polls? A good hard stare into the scrying glass?

    Que?

    My reasons are:

    1. Superiority of phone polls.
    2. Not a "change" election - eg more people still blame Labour for cuts, favour Tories on economic management, etc.
    3. More Lib Dem seats are vulnerable to Tory challengers than Labour.
    4. Scotland wipeout and differential Lib Dem gains imply a target of 50 Labour gains from Tories to reach parity, which is not supported by Ashcroft marginal polling.
    5. Some plausible UKIP gains - eg Thurrock, Thanet South - are in Conservative seats that would have been likely Labour gains in UKIPs absence, so are in some sense Labour losses when you look at their target list.
    6. History of Labour losing vote share in election after being ejected from government - see 1955, 1974 (Feb) and 1983.
    Lot's of great stuff in here. 6 is interesting. I think, Like USA, we do enjoy a 2-term affair.

    Unfortunately SeanT asked for pithiness. This isn't pithy. Hence Fail. :-)

  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143

    4. Scotland wipeout and differential Lib Dem gains imply a target of 50 Labour gains from Tories to reach parity, which is not supported by Ashcroft marginal polling.

    Taking 32 seats from Lab to SNP, I only get a seat difference of 80. So unless Con are going to get 20 more seats from LD than Lab are, which seems unlikely, that sounds too high.
    Labour have 41 Scottish seats. So I call it 40 or 41 losses to the SNP - ie a wipeout. If you have differential gains from the Lib Dems of ten that gets you to just about a hundred seat difference, depending on whether you are working from 2010 seat totals or those at dissolution.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,474
    Pulpstar said:

    Question: How many GB constituencies include islands? Anyone care to list them?

    Yns Mon
    Western Isles
    O&S
    Argyll & Bute
    Isle of Wight
    North Ayrshire Arran...

    ?
    Castle Point (Canvey Island).
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    edited May 2015
    Polruan said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Ishmael_X said:


    2. The Sheffield effect, the point of which has always been that it doesn't show up in the polls, only at the moment of truth in the polling booth.

    There is no "Sheffield effect" for Labour evident in the ICM poll.

    Labour on THIRTY SEVEN % in Hallam is a very strong indicator that they're doing quite well tbh.

    Hallam is simply not the sort of place Labour should be picking up 37%.
    An effect which is by definition invisible in polls, is invisible in a poll? Golly.
    Is the Sheffield effect in any way evidenced? ie. we know the Sheffield rally was kind of awkward, but is there any verified connection between that event and the delta between poll and actual votes? Because if we're just using it as shorthand for "the polls woz wrong" then extrapolating that that wrongness depresses the Labour vote seems optimistic. Why couldn't the Tory vote be subject to the same problem?

    Genuine question btw, I was quite young in 92.
    Yes, I remember it well. The Sheffield Rally has entered the mythology when in fact I don't think it made much difference. FWIW, if there was a late swing in the polls towards CON, I think it was the 'Labour's Tax Bombshell' poster - launched in the last week - that did most to cause it.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    Question: How many GB constituencies include islands? Anyone care to list them?

    That depends how far you're willing to go. If you mean inhabited islands, presumably St Ives has the Scilly Isles. North Devon has Lundy.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Pulpstar said:

    Question: How many GB constituencies include islands? Anyone care to list them?

    Yns Mon
    Western Isles
    O&S
    Argyll & Bute
    Isle of Wight
    North Ayrshire Arran...

    ?
    Castle Point, St Ives, Ross Skye etc.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Sittingbourne & Sheppey.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Sittingbourne and Sheppy?
    Pulpstar said:

    Question: How many GB constituencies include islands? Anyone care to list them?

    Yns Mon
    Western Isles
    O&S
    Argyll & Bute
    Isle of Wight
    North Ayrshire Arran...

    ?
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    edited May 2015
    .
  • Pulpstar said:

    Question: How many GB constituencies include islands? Anyone care to list them?

    Yns Mon
    Western Isles
    O&S
    Argyll & Bute
    Isle of Wight
    North Ayrshire Arran...

    ?
    Castle Point (Canvey Island).
    Berwick Upon Tweed.

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Lindisfarne is part of Berwick-upon-Tweed's constituency.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Is there any way Lucy Powell could dig her hole any deeper?

    Oh, wait...

    @LucyMPowell: Honestly Tories and others desperately mis-quoting what I said. Anyone who heard the whole interview knows I said the opposite.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,978
    I've decided, for tonight's PB meet up, I'm wearing those trainers
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786

    Question: How many GB constituencies include islands? Anyone care to list them?

    Argyll and Bute, N h'eileian siar, Orkney and Shetland, Isle of Wight, Ynys Mon, Ross, Skye and Lochaber, Berwick on tweed, St Ives, Castle Point, North Essex, Havant from the top of my head
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,149

    Sunil Prasannan @Sunil_P2 · 3h 3 hours ago
    #Greens % scores in Electoral LeaderBoard Of the Week (ELBOW), split into Phone and Online polls, updated for 1st May

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/595511715619536896
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Mersea Island is in Harwich & North Essex.
  • GhedebravGhedebrav Posts: 3,860
    Pulpstar said:

    Question: How many GB constituencies include islands? Anyone care to list them?

    Yns Mon
    Western Isles
    O&S
    Argyll & Bute
    Isle of Wight
    North Ayrshire Arran...

    ?
    Depends how big the island is. Though in the case of Ross, Skye & Lochaber you're talking quite big.

    I think the Isles of Scilly are in St Ives. Is Lundy North Devon?

    Sittingbourne & Sheppey too. Then of course there's the Isle of Thanet...


  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,978
    antifrank said:

    Lindisfarne is part of Berwick-upon-Tweed's constituency.

    Well you know what song is in my head now, git.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822

    while the other suggested vulnerable animals should be granted the right to claim asylum in Britain like refugees.

    Bloody UKIP, nicking policies off the Greens.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Is the post about Middlesbrough postal votes down thread legal?
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006
    GIN1138 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    http://electionsetc.com/

    Stephen Fisher !

    Con + Lib + DUP = EICINPM or EMWNBPM?

    More the fact that his central projection of Con 289, Lab 257 gives a 50-50 probability of PM Ed. It gives a good indication of why Ed should still be favourite for PM.
    Even if mathematically possible I can't see Ed becoming PM with 257 seats and more than 30 seats behind Con...
    Agreed, I think that in that situation it would far wiser to let the Tories stumble on with a minority coalition with the Lib Dems. I am sure that is why EM has been so specific about not doing deals with the SNP
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    antifrank said:

    Lindisfarne is part of Berwick-upon-Tweed's constituency.

    Well you know what song is in my head now, git.
    The Paul Gascoigne version, I hope.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    Polruan said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Ishmael_X said:


    2. The Sheffield effect, the point of which has always been that it doesn't show up in the polls, only at the moment of truth in the polling booth.

    There is no "Sheffield effect" for Labour evident in the ICM poll.

    Labour on THIRTY SEVEN % in Hallam is a very strong indicator that they're doing quite well tbh.

    Hallam is simply not the sort of place Labour should be picking up 37%.
    An effect which is by definition invisible in polls, is invisible in a poll? Golly.
    Is the Sheffield effect in any way evidenced? ie. we know the Sheffield rally was kind of awkward, but is there any verified connection between that event and the delta between poll and actual votes? Because if we're just using it as shorthand for "the polls woz wrong" then extrapolating that that wrongness depresses the Labour vote seems optimistic. Why couldn't the Tory vote be subject to the same problem?

    Genuine question btw, I was quite young in 92.
    Anecdotals from the immediate aftermath of people saying it was Sheffield that persuaded them Kinnock wasn't personally up to it. What makes it Labour-hostile is the personal inadequacy theme. (And that's not just sniping: see leader ratings for the last 5 years).
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @MrHarryCole: BBC's Norman Smith says Lucy Powell has had major gaffe as she takes to twitter to pretend she was misquoted.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    4. Scotland wipeout and differential Lib Dem gains imply a target of 50 Labour gains from Tories to reach parity, which is not supported by Ashcroft marginal polling.

    Taking 32 seats from Lab to SNP, I only get a seat difference of 80. So unless Con are going to get 20 more seats from LD than Lab are, which seems unlikely, that sounds too high.
    Labour have 41 Scottish seats. So I call it 40 or 41 losses to the SNP - ie a wipeout. If you have differential gains from the Lib Dems of ten that gets you to just about a hundred seat difference, depending on whether you are working from 2010 seat totals or those at dissolution.
    Right, that just about adds up
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Newsnight (i.e. Election Forecast) sans incumbency - which also serves as an answer to SeanT:

    http://ichef.bbci.co.uk/live-experience/cps/512/amz/vivo/live/images/2015/5/5/1c7890e4-d5ce-4c89-bbde-d772ad18074e.png
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    What a rag

    Sun Politics ‏@SunPolitics 6m6 minutes ago
    Ed Miliband’s bid to win Russell Brand’s backing backfired
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,978
    For Mike's sake, can nobody post postal voting figures, you're going to get a visit from the rozzers, because we have your IP addresses
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    Not sure I want to know what "propped up" means...
  • Ghedebrav said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Question: How many GB constituencies include islands? Anyone care to list them?

    Yns Mon
    Western Isles
    O&S
    Argyll & Bute
    Isle of Wight
    North Ayrshire Arran...

    ?
    Depends how big the island is. Though in the case of Ross, Skye & Lochaber you're talking quite big.

    I think the Isles of Scilly are in St Ives. Is Lundy North Devon?

    Sittingbourne & Sheppey too. Then of course there's the Isle of Thanet...


    Brigg and Goole (tenuous)

  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780
    South Dorset-Brownsea Island.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Ghedebrav said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Question: How many GB constituencies include islands? Anyone care to list them?

    Yns Mon
    Western Isles
    O&S
    Argyll & Bute
    Isle of Wight
    North Ayrshire Arran...

    ?
    Depends how big the island is. Though in the case of Ross, Skye & Lochaber you're talking quite big.

    I think the Isles of Scilly are in St Ives. Is Lundy North Devon?

    Sittingbourne & Sheppey too. Then of course there's the Isle of Thanet...


    Portsmouth North & South.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415

    For Mike's sake, can nobody post postal voting figures, you're going to get a visit from the rozzers, because we have your IP addresses

    Postal voting needs to be banned, because the information is out there the entire election is self undermining.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited May 2015
    Does anyone know how many recipients of postal votes go to the polling booth instead? I was planning to vote by post, but my new station is a 5 mins walk so will do so in person instead.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    Newsnight (i.e. Election Forecast) sans incumbency - which also serves as an answer to SeanT:

    http://ichef.bbci.co.uk/live-experience/cps/512/amz/vivo/live/images/2015/5/5/1c7890e4-d5ce-4c89-bbde-d772ad18074e.png

    Wouldn't incumbency be visible in the polls?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,395

    Pulpstar said:

    Question: How many GB constituencies include islands? Anyone care to list them?

    Yns Mon
    Western Isles
    O&S
    Argyll & Bute
    Isle of Wight
    North Ayrshire Arran...

    ?
    Castle Point (Canvey Island).
    You need to define if habitable/inhabited - if the latter then the following are possible, thugh many were only lighthouse keepers and/or are deserted

    Ross, Skye and Lochaber (Summer Isles etc.)
    Caithness etc (Stroma?)
    Those constituencies in Lothian and Fife which include the Forth islands from the Bridge outwards to May and, round the corner, the Bell Rock

    Whichever in SW England has the Eddystone


  • roserees64roserees64 Posts: 251
    Interesting article yesterday in the Huffington Post, Ramesh Patel, a Tory economist states that the Tories have lied consistently about Labour and the deficit in 2010, why o why does it take a Tory to say what Labour should have beem emphasising.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,067

    What a rag

    Sun Politics ‏@SunPolitics 6m6 minutes ago
    Ed Miliband’s bid to win Russell Brand’s backing backfired

    Everyone is just making things up now. The scum named Murdoch is getting very desperate now...
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    Plato said:

    Does anyone know how many recipients of postal voters go to the polling instead? I was planning to vote by post, but my new station is a 5 mins walk so will do so in person instead.

    Well, that's at least 1 then.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    NW Norfolk - Scolt Head Island
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Pulpstar said:

    Question: How many GB constituencies include islands? Anyone care to list them?

    Yns Mon
    Western Isles
    O&S
    Argyll & Bute
    Isle of Wight
    North Ayrshire Arran...

    ?
    Barrow-in-Furness (Walney)
    Wirral West (Hilbre)
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,474

    Pulpstar said:

    Question: How many GB constituencies include islands? Anyone care to list them?

    Yns Mon
    Western Isles
    O&S
    Argyll & Bute
    Isle of Wight
    North Ayrshire Arran...

    ?
    Castle Point (Canvey Island).
    Berwick Upon Tweed.

    Poplar and Limehouse (Isle of Dogs)
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Dwyfor Meirionnydd (Bardsea)
  • watford30watford30 Posts: 3,474
    Pulpstar said:

    For Mike's sake, can nobody post postal voting figures, you're going to get a visit from the rozzers, because we have your IP addresses

    Postal voting needs to be banned, because the information is out there the entire election is self undermining.
    Not banned, just restricted to those who really can't vote in person. And policed. A few prosecutions with decent jail terms for those abusing the system or releasing information will focus minds.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,395
    RodCrosby said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Question: How many GB constituencies include islands? Anyone care to list them?

    Yns Mon
    Western Isles
    O&S
    Argyll & Bute
    Isle of Wight
    North Ayrshire Arran...

    ?
    Barrow-in-Furness (Walney)
    Wirral West (Hilbre)
    Barry Island in Vale of Glamorgan
    Pembrokeshire (?)
  • AllyPally_RobAllyPally_Rob Posts: 605
    I think the EdStone has claimed the mantle of Daftest campaign moment by a mile. What a stupid idiotic clusterf*ck of an idea (and i say that as a Lab voter).

    Any other nominations for this accolade? The Tory promise to outlaw tax rises was another bonkers idea, but not in the same league as the EdStone IMHO. It just reminds me of those terrifying Aids adverts in the 80s!

  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,474
    Carnyx said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Question: How many GB constituencies include islands? Anyone care to list them?

    Yns Mon
    Western Isles
    O&S
    Argyll & Bute
    Isle of Wight
    North Ayrshire Arran...

    ?
    Castle Point (Canvey Island).
    You need to define if habitable/inhabited - if the latter then the following are possible, thugh many were only lighthouse keepers and/or are deserted

    Ross, Skye and Lochaber (Summer Isles etc.)
    Caithness etc (Stroma?)
    Those constituencies in Lothian and Fife which include the Forth islands from the Bridge outwards to May and, round the corner, the Bell Rock

    Whichever in SW England has the Eddystone


    Canvey is definitely inhabitable, and inhabited, though one may reasonably ask why.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341

    What a rag

    Sun Politics ‏@SunPolitics 6m6 minutes ago
    Ed Miliband’s bid to win Russell Brand’s backing backfired

    Lots of lefties calling him an establishment sell-out, and saying he should have backed the Greens instead of more of the same old, same old.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Theoretically every contituency North And west of the great Glen is on an island.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    edited May 2015

    Interesting article yesterday in the Huffington Post, Ramesh Patel, a Tory economist states that the Tories have lied consistently about Labour and the deficit in 2010, why o why does it take a Tory to say what Labour should have beem emphasising.

    LOL....you are a funny troll....By yesterday you mean the 6 days ago...By economist, you mean he did an economist degree but isn't thought of any of as such and finally is widely derided for inaccuracies...

    Now tell us again about Ed Balls reading economics at Oxford and beating his class including Osborne....
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    HYUFD said:

    The key difference in 2010 was UKIP were polling around 3% not 12/13%+ so if the Tories can squeeze that down to around 10% they should get up to 35/36%+

    We may get more effective 'tory' voting as well. If the tories go for the liberals in the red/yellow seats then this will reduce the tory percentage but improve the chance of a blue-yellow coalition. Similarly if we get purple--> blue and blue --> purple then the tory vote may actually decline quit considerably (more blues to lose) but their seats increase.

    I am assuming that UKIP will be no more likely to join with Labour than the SNP join with the Conservatives.

    TBH - I wish it was this time next week.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    Diane Abbott MP ‏@hackneyabbatt May 2
    Hearing the postal votes for Tower Hamlets have been counted & the turnout is expected to be 127%. Expect a @UKLabour landslide.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,395

    Carnyx said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Question: How many GB constituencies include islands? Anyone care to list them?

    Yns Mon
    Western Isles
    O&S
    Argyll & Bute
    Isle of Wight
    North Ayrshire Arran...

    ?
    Castle Point (Canvey Island).
    You need to define if habitable/inhabited - if the latter then the following are possible, thugh many were only lighthouse keepers and/or are deserted

    Ross, Skye and Lochaber (Summer Isles etc.)
    Caithness etc (Stroma?)
    Those constituencies in Lothian and Fife which include the Forth islands from the Bridge outwards to May and, round the corner, the Bell Rock

    Whichever in SW England has the Eddystone


    Canvey is definitely inhabitable, and inhabited, though one may reasonably ask why.
    I was wondering if the Thames and Humber forts (and were they not in the Mersey too?) qualify.

    The Palmerston forts in the Solent are - presumably - covered by the IoW/Pompey constituencies, but I'm not sure about the equivalents out in the approaches to Plymouth and the Tamar.

  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006
    PeterC said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    http://electionsetc.com/

    Stephen Fisher !

    Con + Lib + DUP = EICINPM or EMWNBPM?

    More the fact that his central projection of Con 289, Lab 257 gives a 50-50 probability of PM Ed. It gives a good indication of why Ed should still be favourite for PM.
    Even if mathematically possible I can't see Ed becoming PM with 257 seats and more than 30 seats behind Con...
    Especially since Con + LD + DUP + UKIP > 323. This is the crucial consideration for a Con/LD government.

    It was four years ago today that we voted to reject AV.

    Given what we know, and the expected election result, would AV have passed now?

    (I know, we don't discuss AV enough)

    TSE. The current voting system will have 2 highly undesirable consequences in this election.

    1. It will give the impression that the nationalists have swept the board in Scotland whereas in reality the unionist parties may actually have more votes but be practically wiped out. This could ultimately lead to the break up of the UK.

    2. UKIP will poll anything from 10-15% of the votes and be almost totally unrepresented which is a travesty in a democracy, much as I disagree with them.

    The only virtue that people used to claim on behalf of FPTP is that it produced strong stable governments. If it fails miserably to do that I wonder how long it will last.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664

    Interesting article yesterday in the Huffington Post, Ramesh Patel, a Tory economist states that the Tories have lied consistently about Labour and the deficit in 2010, why o why does it take a Tory to say what Labour should have beem emphasising.

    Sweetheart, he's been at it for years. google him. He's a nutter with a book to publicise.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Postal voting combined with this is so depressing for democracy. order-order.com/2015/05/05/pakistani-speaker-at-sex-segregation-rally-boasted-i-can-tell-people-how-to-vote/#_@/qUfkohofX7FCUg


    Chaudhry is the former premier of Kashmir and the MP for Mirpur, in Pakistan. In a 2010 BBC profile, he claimed he “always” visits Britain ahead of general elections in order to tell British-Pakistanis “how to vote“. Chaudhry claims:

    “I always come during elections. It’s basically so I can tell people how to vote and who to vote for. Most of the Pakistanis here [in Britain] are from Mirpur, and I am the MP from Mirpur, and I know the issues here and who will be the best candidates to help solve the issues in Kashmir.”
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    chestnut said:

    Midlands swing from Con to Lab down to 1.4% in last two Populus polls.

    SE swing down from 6.5% to 4.7%

    So since GE 2010 there is a UK wide swing from Con to LAB of 3.6%.

    Has to be bigger than that in E&W due to Scottish collapse.

    No wonder Populus is showing EICIPM
  • ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    Polruan said:

    On the legitimacy of minority government point: I agree with the view that beyond a certain level, Ed could be constitutionally able to form a government, but politically incapable of so doing.

    On Friday, when there is real hard politicking to be done of the sort that only bubble-ists and the anoraks of this parish understand, subtle comments like that will break Twitter. Owen Jones's nanny will have a terrible morning and demented disciples of the Prophet Brand will crawl to their local A&E department (or pubs) moaning, 'WTF? Fing politicians. Me 'ead 'urts. Sod Russell Brand.' Alan Partridge will make a PPB while Lily Savage sits in the Luton departure lounge waiting for some to tell her whether to stay or go. You go, Lil, old girl. You know you want to.
  • llefllef Posts: 301
    Carnyx said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Question: How many GB constituencies include islands? Anyone care to list them?

    Yns Mon
    Western Isles
    O&S
    Argyll & Bute
    Isle of Wight
    North Ayrshire Arran...

    ?
    Barrow-in-Furness (Walney)
    Wirral West (Hilbre)
    Barry Island in Vale of Glamorgan
    Pembrokeshire (?)
    caldey island in carmarthen & south pembroke
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,987
    chestnut He did back the Greens in Brighton and the SNP in Scotland, his Labour endorsement was only for England and Wales in Labour v Tory seats
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,932

    Question: How many GB constituencies include islands? Anyone care to list them?

    Don't know whether this counts - but Portsea Island contains Portsmouth South and part of Portsmouth North. OK it's got a Motorway and other roads connecting, but some others mentioned have bridges.
    Also Hayling Island is part of Havant constituency.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    Do the Lib Dems accept they'll be the 4th placed party yet ?
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664

    Carnyx said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Question: How many GB constituencies include islands? Anyone care to list them?

    Yns Mon
    Western Isles
    O&S
    Argyll & Bute
    Isle of Wight
    North Ayrshire Arran...

    ?
    Castle Point (Canvey Island).
    You need to define if habitable/inhabited - if the latter then the following are possible, thugh many were only lighthouse keepers and/or are deserted

    Ross, Skye and Lochaber (Summer Isles etc.)
    Caithness etc (Stroma?)
    Those constituencies in Lothian and Fife which include the Forth islands from the Bridge outwards to May and, round the corner, the Bell Rock

    Whichever in SW England has the Eddystone


    Canvey is definitely inhabitable, and inhabited, though one may reasonably ask why.
    Dr Feelgood makes up for a lot of shortcomings.
  • It would seem we are an island nation.

    "We have the character of an island nation: independent, forthright, passionate in defence of our sovereignty. We can no more change this British sensibility than we can drain the English Channel. And because of this sensibility, we come to the European Union with a frame of mind that is more practical than emotional"
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006
    Scott_P said:

    @SunNation: Just when you thought Labour's #Edstone shambles couldn't get any worse... http://t.co/DNECUslXV7 http://t.co/3rzxRwQYOv

    For pity's sake you have posted about the "Edstone" about 6 times in the last hour, everyone has moved on, it's yesterday's news, stop flogging a dead horse.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    Plato said:

    Postal voting combined with this is so depressing for democracy. order-order.com/2015/05/05/pakistani-speaker-at-sex-segregation-rally-boasted-i-can-tell-people-how-to-vote/#_@/qUfkohofX7FCUg



    Chaudhry is the former premier of Kashmir and the MP for Mirpur, in Pakistan. In a 2010 BBC profile, he claimed he “always” visits Britain ahead of general elections in order to tell British-Pakistanis “how to vote“. Chaudhry claims:

    “I always come during elections. It’s basically so I can tell people how to vote and who to vote for. Most of the Pakistanis here [in Britain] are from Mirpur, and I am the MP from Mirpur, and I know the issues here and who will be the best candidates to help solve the issues in Kashmir.”
    The true definition of tribal politics.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,712
    Plato said:

    Postal voting combined with this is so depressing for democracy. order-order.com/2015/05/05/pakistani-speaker-at-sex-segregation-rally-boasted-i-can-tell-people-how-to-vote/#_@/qUfkohofX7FCUg



    Chaudhry is the former premier of Kashmir and the MP for Mirpur, in Pakistan. In a 2010 BBC profile, he claimed he “always” visits Britain ahead of general elections in order to tell British-Pakistanis “how to vote“. Chaudhry claims:

    “I always come during elections. It’s basically so I can tell people how to vote and who to vote for. Most of the Pakistanis here [in Britain] are from Mirpur, and I am the MP from Mirpur, and I know the issues here and who will be the best candidates to help solve the issues in Kashmir.”
    Sadly, I can fully believe this.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    HYUFD said:

    chestnut He did back the Greens in Brighton and the SNP in Scotland, his Labour endorsement was only for England and Wales in Labour v Tory seats

    You can read his followers bickering on his Youtube Channel comments.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Lab majority 180 on BF
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,656

    Pulpstar said:

    Question: How many GB constituencies include islands? Anyone care to list them?

    Yns Mon
    Western Isles
    O&S
    Argyll & Bute
    Isle of Wight
    North Ayrshire Arran...

    ?
    Castle Point, St Ives, Ross Skye etc.
    Twickenham (Eel Pie Island)
  • macisbackmacisback Posts: 382
    OllyT said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    http://electionsetc.com/

    Stephen Fisher !

    Con + Lib + DUP = EICINPM or EMWNBPM?

    More the fact that his central projection of Con 289, Lab 257 gives a 50-50 probability of PM Ed. It gives a good indication of why Ed should still be favourite for PM.
    Even if mathematically possible I can't see Ed becoming PM with 257 seats and more than 30 seats behind Con...
    Agreed, I think that in that situation it would far wiser to let the Tories stumble on with a minority coalition with the Lib Dems. I am sure that is why EM has been so specific about not doing deals with the SNP
    Eddie has to win a chunk more seats than Brown did for enough of his party to get behind him. We hear plenty of the kick the Tories out at all costs mentality from the likes of Nick Palmer but there are enough politicians with more sense, led by Balls in the Labour party to act with more class.

    Miliband will need around 275 I reckon to get his chance, at present from what I detect on the ground, Labour activists are very nervous. They are like a footballing team on the last day relying on factors outside their control for success. In so many key marginals they will rely on the UKIP vote holding up, if it doesn't they won't gain the seats. Nobody will be more nervous than Nick Palmer, if UKIP vote expectation holds up he will gain a narrow win, if it drops by a smallish amount he will lose.

    I wouldn't like to put too much money on whether he will get to 275 or be stuck on 260, it will all come down to some really tight marginals.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Clegg rattled, the Conservatives suddenly going all-out in LibDem-held seats rather than Con/Lab marginals, Labour apparently in a panic: use your brains, guys and gals. There's a pretty obvious explanation. Postal votes have gone out, but, more importantly, the follow-up phone calls in key marginals have happened.

    This is one part of the answer to SeanT's question.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,474

    Plato said:

    Postal voting combined with this is so depressing for democracy. order-order.com/2015/05/05/pakistani-speaker-at-sex-segregation-rally-boasted-i-can-tell-people-how-to-vote/#_@/qUfkohofX7FCUg



    Chaudhry is the former premier of Kashmir and the MP for Mirpur, in Pakistan. In a 2010 BBC profile, he claimed he “always” visits Britain ahead of general elections in order to tell British-Pakistanis “how to vote“. Chaudhry claims:

    “I always come during elections. It’s basically so I can tell people how to vote and who to vote for. Most of the Pakistanis here [in Britain] are from Mirpur, and I am the MP from Mirpur, and I know the issues here and who will be the best candidates to help solve the issues in Kashmir.”
    Sadly, I can fully believe this.

    You have to feel sorry for people who need to be told who to vote for, whether they be former residents of Kashmir or Sun readers.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    OllyT said:

    Scott_P said:

    @SunNation: Just when you thought Labour's #Edstone shambles couldn't get any worse... http://t.co/DNECUslXV7 http://t.co/3rzxRwQYOv

    For pity's sake you have posted about the "Edstone" about 6 times in the last hour, everyone has moved on, it's yesterday's news, stop flogging a dead horse.
    rubbish, ms. powell has dragged it back to centre stage.
  • ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658

    Pulpstar said:

    Question: How many GB constituencies include islands? Anyone care to list them?

    Yns Mon
    Western Isles
    O&S
    Argyll & Bute
    Isle of Wight
    North Ayrshire Arran...

    ?
    Castle Point (Canvey Island).
    Thanet.

    Does Isle of Man vote this week?

  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,656
    Pulpstar said:

    Do the Lib Dems accept they'll be the 4th placed party yet ?
    While they'll be fourth in terms of seats, the UKIP-LibDem battle for third place in votes (assuming the phone pollsters are correct) could be very interesting.
  • PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    Ishmael_X said:

    Polruan said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Ishmael_X said:


    2. The Sheffield effect, the point of which has always been that it doesn't show up in the polls, only at the moment of truth in the polling booth.

    There is no "Sheffield effect" for Labour evident in the ICM poll.

    Labour on THIRTY SEVEN % in Hallam is a very strong indicator that they're doing quite well tbh.

    Hallam is simply not the sort of place Labour should be picking up 37%.
    An effect which is by definition invisible in polls, is invisible in a poll? Golly.
    Is the Sheffield effect in any way evidenced? ie. we know the Sheffield rally was kind of awkward, but is there any verified connection between that event and the delta between poll and actual votes? Because if we're just using it as shorthand for "the polls woz wrong" then extrapolating that that wrongness depresses the Labour vote seems optimistic. Why couldn't the Tory vote be subject to the same problem?

    Genuine question btw, I was quite young in 92.
    Anecdotals from the immediate aftermath of people saying it was Sheffield that persuaded them Kinnock wasn't personally up to it. What makes it Labour-hostile is the personal inadequacy theme. (And that's not just sniping: see leader ratings for the last 5 years).
    OK, so the Sheffield effect is proxy for an assumption that low personal ratings for the leader don't affect headline VI in the polls right up to the election, but depress actual votes for that party.

    @ThomasNashe 's explanation seems rather more plausible: that late swings are possible due to campaigning factors, and may or may not be hung on a single media-friendly factor that demonstrates correlation (kind of) but not causation.

    So all we can really say is that the polls might be wrong (either way), that in future we'd seek to find a reason for it, possibly call it a "Sheffield moment" but, if it's the Tories who underperform the polling, accept that Sheffield moments are available to all parties.

    Was the unwind of the Cleggasm a Sheffield moment, btw?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    OllyT said:

    it's yesterday's news

    Headline on the 1 o'clock news...

    Lucy Powell strikes again.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092

    OllyT said:

    Scott_P said:

    @SunNation: Just when you thought Labour's #Edstone shambles couldn't get any worse... http://t.co/DNECUslXV7 http://t.co/3rzxRwQYOv

    For pity's sake you have posted about the "Edstone" about 6 times in the last hour, everyone has moved on, it's yesterday's news, stop flogging a dead horse.
    rubbish, ms. powell has dragged it back to centre stage.
    A stage whose audience consists entirely of anoraks
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,474
    RodCrosby said:

    Lab majority 180 on BF

    Weren't you rather sweet on a Conservative Overall Majority earlier in the year, Rod?

    Or am I mixing you up with Tissue Price?
  • logical_songlogical_song Posts: 9,932
    OllyT said:

    PeterC said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    http://electionsetc.com/

    Stephen Fisher !

    Con + Lib + DUP = EICINPM or EMWNBPM?

    More the fact that his central projection of Con 289, Lab 257 gives a 50-50 probability of PM Ed. It gives a good indication of why Ed should still be favourite for PM.
    Even if mathematically possible I can't see Ed becoming PM with 257 seats and more than 30 seats behind Con...
    Especially since Con + LD + DUP + UKIP > 323. This is the crucial consideration for a Con/LD government.

    It was four years ago today that we voted to reject AV.

    Given what we know, and the expected election result, would AV have passed now?

    (I know, we don't discuss AV enough)

    TSE. The current voting system will have 2 highly undesirable consequences in this election.

    1. It will give the impression that the nationalists have swept the board in Scotland whereas in reality the unionist parties may actually have more votes but be practically wiped out. This could ultimately lead to the break up of the UK.

    2. UKIP will poll anything from 10-15% of the votes and be almost totally unrepresented which is a travesty in a democracy, much as I disagree with them.

    The only virtue that people used to claim on behalf of FPTP is that it produced strong stable governments. If it fails miserably to do that I wonder how long it will last.
    The chance for a change to STV or similar could be the only positive to come out of this election.
    Clegg should push for it and the Tories and Labour should recognise that it could have some advantages for their parties as well as the country. It could mean the difference between Scotland going its own way or staying in the union.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,415
    I reckon there are people in the various markets at the moment with postal vote information.

    BE CAUTIOUS if it looks too good to be true at this point, it may well be.
  • We in the U.S. have had THREE major national executive/legislative elections since the last time you election-starved Brits had one (and you've only had one parliamentary election in ten years!). Given the scarcity, I'm glad you've decided to make it exciting by sending it down to the wire.
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,782

    Question: How many GB constituencies include islands? Anyone care to list them?

    Don't think that anyone has mentioned South-East Cambridgeshire yet.

    (Isle of Ely)
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,232
    edited May 2015
    Thanks everyone for your replies. No-one has mentioned the Isle of Grain, but it isn't really an island. Also, there are some islands in the middle of the Thames that we ought to count too. Edit - just seen that rcs1000 has got there before me!
This discussion has been closed.