Greens to come close in Norwich South (have given it them above)
That would be a very pleasant surprise. I havent canvassed in Norwich in years so I had presumed from the outside it would be a very tough ask the way local results were going. I'd be more than happy with retaining Brighton Pavilion and getting one or two 2nd places. Anything more would be a bonus.
Greens to trounce the yellow peril in Sheffield Central I reckon.
That's a big hope. It would be a very distant second place if it came off but right now we have no second places to work on so we'll take what's going.
Who produced this - it looks like a joke. Eastleigh and Portsmouth South - "Tories can't win here .... let Labour in"???? LibDems or Tories will win or come second. Labour will be nowhere, but probably ahead of UKIP.
Greens to come close in Norwich South (have given it them above)
That would be a very pleasant surprise. I havent canvassed in Norwich in years so I had presumed from the outside it would be a very tough ask the way local results were going. I'd be more than happy with retaining Brighton Pavilion and getting one or two 2nd places. Anything more would be a bonus.
It's close I've been generous in my prediction as my concern is the student vote will not turn out or isn't registered. Clear second place if not though.
Greens to come close in Norwich South (have given it them above)
That would be a very pleasant surprise. I havent canvassed in Norwich in years so I had presumed from the outside it would be a very tough ask the way local results were going. I'd be more than happy with retaining Brighton Pavilion and getting one or two 2nd places. Anything more would be a bonus.
It's close I've been generous in my prediction as my concern is the student vote will not turn out or isn't registered. Clear second place if not though.
Can't see Labour winning the popular vote with Populus failing to give them a lead.
On the face of it, to have two successive Populus polls putting the Conservatives level, is good news for the Tories, given that Populus have shown Labour ahead since August. But, it may be matched by the better polls for the Conservatives moving towards a tie as well.
Can't see Labour winning the popular vote with Populus failing to give them a lead.
On the face of it, to have two successive Populus polls putting the Conservatives level, is good news for the Tories, given that Populus have shown Labour ahead since August. But, it may be matched by the better polls for the Conservatives moving towards a tie as well.
Con 299 Lab 253 LD 21 SNP 51 UKIP 2 PC 3 Green 1 Galloway 1 Speaker 1 NI 18
Con + LD 320 Lab + SNP + PC + Green 308
Con / LD coalition with DUP support.
Con: 302 + 18 gains from LD + 1 gain from UKIP + 1 gain of Portsmouth South + 1 'gain' of Kensington + 2 gains from Labour - 25 losses to Labour - 1 loss to UKIP = 299
Lab: 256 + 8 gains from LD + 25 gains from Con + 1 'gain' of Blackburn - 2 losses to Con - 35 losses to SNP = 253
LD: 56 - 18 losses to Con - 8 losses to Lab - 9 losses to SNP = 21
SNP: 6 + 35 gains from Lab + 1 gain from Independent (Falkirk) 9 gains from LD = 51
My first thought was that it was a list where UKIP would be the challenger to either Lab or the Tories. But Ipswich is surely a Con/Lab marginal on any forecast.
“I don’t think anyone is suggesting that the fact that he’s carved them into stone means, you know, means that he will absolutely, you know, not going to break them or anything like that.”
“I don’t think anyone is suggesting that the fact that he’s carved them into stone means, you know, means that he will absolutely, you know, not going to break them or anything like that.”
Don't forget that at this equivalent point in 2010 the LD soufflé had not popped. According to Ipsos Mori when they polled on Tuesday last time LD stood at 29pc. When they polled on Wednesday they had fallen to 23pc.Irecall the incredulity on election night when the exit poll confirmed the collapse. Three weeks of Cleggmania had conditioned people to expect a LD advance. Instead they fell back. I expect a last minute shift again as people finally focus on the choice. My feeling is that the Conservatives will top 300 seats and will lead the next government. When pollsters return to ask why the most cited answer will be Milibands statement on QT that Labour had not overspent.
Greens to come close in Norwich South (have given it them above)
That would be a very pleasant surprise. I havent canvassed in Norwich in years so I had presumed from the outside it would be a very tough ask the way local results were going. I'd be more than happy with retaining Brighton Pavilion and getting one or two 2nd places. Anything more would be a bonus.
Greens to trounce the yellow peril in Sheffield Central I reckon.
That's a big hope. It would be a very distant second place if it came off but right now we have no second places to work on so we'll take what's going.
In terms of 2nd places - I reckon that you should have Bristol West, Norwich South (Assuming that you don't sneak a win in either of them). Then Sheffield Central (although a ridiculously long way behind). Other than that, there is an outside chance in Streatham in my view.
"Coogan's about as socialist as Floyd Mayweather, only considerably less likeable" - Piers Morgan
Alien vs Predator.
Floyd Mayweather is one of the greatest boxers of all time. He deserves his millions for having ungodly talent and dedication.
Coogan is a fantastic character comedian, and a deeply troubled individual.
There's been surprisingly little backlash.
I thought it was a stupid idea using him. But I guess his troubles are pretty well known and wouldn't really provide a decent story. But given his troubles are well known, you have to ask how much is his endorsement worth.
Curious about the practice of writing NI 18 in seat projections. In a Parliament as close as is being forecast the breakdown of that 18 could be critical. Alliance for instance would probably go with Labour but if the Unionists recover that seat then it'd probably be more palatable for Tory and LD than Labour and SNP.
More the fact that his central projection of Con 289, Lab 257 gives a 50-50 probability of PM Ed. It gives a good indication of why Ed should still be favourite for PM.
Greens to come close in Norwich South (have given it them above)
That would be a very pleasant surprise. I havent canvassed in Norwich in years so I had presumed from the outside it would be a very tough ask the way local results were going. I'd be more than happy with retaining Brighton Pavilion and getting one or two 2nd places. Anything more would be a bonus.
Greens to trounce the yellow peril in Sheffield Central I reckon.
That's a big hope. It would be a very distant second place if it came off but right now we have no second places to work on so we'll take what's going.
In terms of 2nd places - I reckon that you should have Bristol West, Norwich South (Assuming that you don't sneak a win in either of them). Then Sheffield Central (although a ridiculously long way behind). Other than that, there is an outside chance in Streatham in my view.
I would agree with all those. Difficult to tell where the Lib Dems will implode and by how much in London but I reckon Holborn and St Pancras, Lewisham Deptford and Hackney North are all better shots than Streatham.
“I don’t think anyone is suggesting that the fact that he’s carved them into stone means, you know, means that he will absolutely, you know, not going to break them or anything like that.”
Can there be anything better than this yet to come before this is over? Surely impossible - and yet ....
Greens to come close in Norwich South (have given it them above)
That would be a very pleasant surprise. I havent canvassed in Norwich in years so I had presumed from the outside it would be a very tough ask the way local results were going. I'd be more than happy with retaining Brighton Pavilion and getting one or two 2nd places. Anything more would be a bonus.
Greens to trounce the yellow peril in Sheffield Central I reckon.
That's a big hope. It would be a very distant second place if it came off but right now we have no second places to work on so we'll take what's going.
In terms of 2nd places - I reckon that you should have Bristol West, Norwich South (Assuming that you don't sneak a win in either of them). Then Sheffield Central (although a ridiculously long way behind). Other than that, there is an outside chance in Streatham in my view.
"Coogan's about as socialist as Floyd Mayweather, only considerably less likeable" - Piers Morgan
Alien vs Predator.
Floyd Mayweather is one of the greatest boxers of all time. He deserves his millions for having ungodly talent and dedication.
Coogan is a fantastic character comedian, and a deeply troubled individual.
There's been surprisingly little backlash.
I thought it was a stupid idea using him. But I guess his troubles are pretty well known and wouldn't really provide a decent story. But given his troubles are well known, you have to ask how much is his endorsement worth.
They'd have been better off getting Partridge to do a spoof Tory endorsement!
“I don’t think anyone is suggesting that the fact that he’s carved them into stone means, you know, means that he will absolutely, you know, not going to break them or anything like that.”
Can there be anything better than this yet to come before this is over? Surely impossible - and yet ....
Just having a browse of the BBC Election feed, and it seems to be a never ending splurge of threats about the NHS from Labour. I know they're trusted on this issue, but to consistently push the "24 hours to save it" line smacks of utter desperation to me (alongside the 6000 nurse losses...)
I've noticed Labours panicky rhetoric more so in the last two days than at any other point in the campaign. Being that the polls are tied, is there any reason for them continue with this stance "if" they seem likely to become largest party?
The key difference in 2010 was UKIP were polling around 3% not 12/13%+ so if the Tories can squeeze that down to around 10% they should get up to 35/36%+
"Coogan's about as socialist as Floyd Mayweather, only considerably less likeable" - Piers Morgan
Alien vs Predator.
Floyd Mayweather is one of the greatest boxers of all time. He deserves his millions for having ungodly talent and dedication.
Coogan is a fantastic character comedian, and a deeply troubled individual.
There's been surprisingly little backlash.
I thought it was a stupid idea using him. But I guess his troubles are pretty well known and wouldn't really provide a decent story. But given his troubles are well known, you have to ask how much is his endorsement worth.
He is yet another massive hypocrite, deeply troubled and not very nice individual.
This is a man who was so outraged by the activities of the NOTW, he used to ring up his man on the celeb gossip desk there and get them to spike stories about his illegal behaviour.
23:00 7th May Houghton & Sunderland South Richard Peter Elvin (UKIP) 5,150 Stewart Hay (Conservative) 8,277 Bridget Phillipson (Labour) 20,106 Others less than 1,000 Con-> Lab swing 2.3%
"Coogan's about as socialist as Floyd Mayweather, only considerably less likeable" - Piers Morgan
Alien vs Predator.
Floyd Mayweather is one of the greatest boxers of all time. He deserves his millions for having ungodly talent and dedication.
Coogan is a fantastic character comedian, and a deeply troubled individual.
There's been surprisingly little backlash.
I thought it was a stupid idea using him. But I guess his troubles are pretty well known and wouldn't really provide a decent story. But given his troubles are well known, you have to ask how much is his endorsement worth.
They'd have been better off getting Partridge to do a spoof Tory endorsement!
I thought exactly the same thing! Who cares what Coogan himself thinks?
Curious about the practice of writing NI 18 in seat projections. In a Parliament as close as is being forecast the breakdown of that 18 could be critical. Alliance for instance would probably go with Labour but if the Unionists recover that seat then it'd probably be more palatable for Tory and LD than Labour and SNP.
Sinn Féin will abstain and the SDLP will only support Labour. Lady Hermon (if she gets back in) is more disposed towards Labour than Tories. Beyond that all other Northern Ireland MPs (in practice this probably just means all DUP MPs) are for sale.
Curious about the practice of writing NI 18 in seat projections. In a Parliament as close as is being forecast the breakdown of that 18 could be critical. Alliance for instance would probably go with Labour but if the Unionists recover that seat then it'd probably be more palatable for Tory and LD than Labour and SNP.
I think it's because most people (including me) only have a vague understanding of NI politics. That may be unkind to fellow posters, but that's my perception.
Furthermore, my impression is that sectarian gerrymandering has rendered most seats 'safe' for one party or another - but I'm happy to be educated/corrected!
"Coogan's about as socialist as Floyd Mayweather, only considerably less likeable" - Piers Morgan
Alien vs Predator.
Floyd Mayweather is one of the greatest boxers of all time. He deserves his millions for having ungodly talent and dedication.
Coogan is a fantastic character comedian, and a deeply troubled individual.
There's been surprisingly little backlash.
I thought it was a stupid idea using him. But I guess his troubles are pretty well known and wouldn't really provide a decent story. But given his troubles are well known, you have to ask how much is his endorsement worth.
They'd have been better off getting Partridge to do a spoof Tory endorsement!
I thought exactly the same thing! Who cares what Coogan himself thinks?
I seemed to remember Labour got Laurie and Fry to do exactly that many moons ago.
Just having a browse of the BBC Election feed, and it seems to be a never ending splurge of threats about the NHS from Labour. I know they're trusted on this issue, but to consistently push the "24 hours to save it" line smacks of utter desperation to me (alongside the 6000 nurse losses...)
I've noticed Labours panicky rhetoric more so in the last two days than at any other point in the campaign. Being that the polls are tied, is there any reason for them continue with this stance "if" they seem likely to become largest party?
Every seat counts.
The NHS is either the most important or 2nd most important issue in all the polls.
Over two thirds of hospitals have forecast deficits nearly all the clinical access standards are worse under the Tories.
Just having a browse of the BBC Election feed, and it seems to be a never ending splurge of threats about the NHS from Labour. I know they're trusted on this issue, but to consistently push the "24 hours to save it" line smacks of utter desperation to me (alongside the 6000 nurse losses...)
I've noticed Labours panicky rhetoric more so in the last two days than at any other point in the campaign. Being that the polls are tied, is there any reason for them continue with this stance "if" they seem likely to become largest party?
Very reminiscent of "24 hours to save the pound" nobody believed that either.
I am more and more beginning to think that Milli and Cam know something the pollsters don't/
Just having a browse of the BBC Election feed, and it seems to be a never ending splurge of threats about the NHS from Labour. I know they're trusted on this issue, but to consistently push the "24 hours to save it" line smacks of utter desperation to me (alongside the 6000 nurse losses...)
I've noticed Labours panicky rhetoric more so in the last two days than at any other point in the campaign. Being that the polls are tied, is there any reason for them continue with this stance "if" they seem likely to become largest party?
Every seat counts.
The NHS is either the most important or 2nd most important issue in all the polls.
Over two thirds of hospitals have forecast deficits nearly all the clinical access standards are worse under the Tories.
It is valid for LAB to point this out.
Hospitals crippled by the costs of Labour's PFI schemes.
More the fact that his central projection of Con 289, Lab 257 gives a 50-50 probability of PM Ed. It gives a good indication of why Ed should still be favourite for PM.
Even if mathematically possible I can't see Ed becoming PM with 257 seats and more than 30 seats behind Con...
Comments
Pass the smelling salts.
But starting with the Prime Minister's constituency is mental!
Eastleigh and Portsmouth South - "Tories can't win here .... let Labour in"????
LibDems or Tories will win or come second. Labour will be nowhere, but probably ahead of UKIP.
It's such a random selection.
Tory - 280
Labour - 270
SNP - 57
LibDem - 15
DUP - 8
Plaid - 5
Sinn Fein - 4
Independent (inc Speaker) - 3
Green - 3
UKIP - 2
Respect - 1
Alliance - 1
UUP - 1
Taking a risk on Fermanagh and South Tyrone, Belfast East, Bristol West and Norwich South.
Clear second would be a fine result.
Alien vs Predator.
Con 299
Lab 253
LD 21
SNP 51
UKIP 2
PC 3
Green 1
Galloway 1
Speaker 1
NI 18
Con + LD 320
Lab + SNP + PC + Green 308
Con / LD coalition with DUP support.
Con: 302 + 18 gains from LD + 1 gain from UKIP + 1 gain of Portsmouth South + 1 'gain' of Kensington + 2 gains from Labour - 25 losses to Labour - 1 loss to UKIP = 299
Lab: 256 + 8 gains from LD + 25 gains from Con + 1 'gain' of Blackburn - 2 losses to Con - 35 losses to SNP = 253
LD: 56 - 18 losses to Con - 8 losses to Lab - 9 losses to SNP = 21
SNP: 6 + 35 gains from Lab + 1 gain from Independent (Falkirk) 9 gains from LD = 51
UKIP: 2 + 1 gain from Con - 1 loss to Con = 2
NI 18, PC 3, Green 1, Respect 1, Speaker 1.
Con 295
Labour 256
LibDem 16
UKIP 6
SNP 53
PC 4
NI 18
Respect 1
Green 0
Speaker 1
+/- 5
Tory - 300
Labour - 255
+/- 3
SNP - 53
LibDem - 22
+/- 1
DUP - 8
Plaid - 3
Sinn Fein - 4
Independent 1
Green - 1
UKIP - 4
Respect - 1
Alliance - 1
UUP - 1
+/- 0
Speaker 1
I can't see Labour below 250 or Tory above 305
I can't see SNP below 50 or LibDem above 27
All predicted with greater hope than expectation.
Lab: Kirkcaldy, Glasgow NE, Renfrewshire East, Edinburgh South, Aberdeen South, Rutherglen.
LD: Orkney, Berwickshire.
Con: Dumfriesshire.
“I don’t think anyone is suggesting that the fact that he’s carved them into stone means, you know, means that he will absolutely, you know, not going to break them or anything like that.”
Con 285
Labour 266
LibDem 23
UKIP 2
SNP 50
PC 3
NI 18
Respect 1
Green 1
Speaker 1
[Although in practice that won't be possible 'cos they'll be suspended]
Not the Edstone, Lucy Powell
http://order-order.com/2015/05/05/lucy-powell-gaffe-miliband-might-break-edstone-promises/
Which idiot appointed Lucy Powell?
The site is here
http://www.electiongame.co.uk/
and the link to the specific game is at the top of the sidebar on there.
Con 270
Labour 283
LibDem 24
UKIP 4
SNP 45
PC 3
NI 18
Respect 1
Green 1
I would like to see the coalition continue, but I fear it is not to be...
I thought it was a stupid idea using him. But I guess his troubles are pretty well known and wouldn't really provide a decent story. But given his troubles are well known, you have to ask how much is his endorsement worth.
Tory - 280
Labour - 269
SNP - 57
Liberal 15
DUP - 8
Plaid - 5
Sinn Fein - 4
Independent (inc Speaker) - 3
Green - 3
SDLP - 3
Respect - 1
Alliance - 1
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2009/12/30/guest-slot-from-patrick-on-the-impact-of-turnout/
Though of course this was in a simpler and happier world...
LAB 275
CON 275
SNP 44
LD 26
DUP 8
SF 6
UKIP 4
PC 3
SDLP 2
Respect 1
Speaker 1
NHA 1
Green 1
LSH 1
UUP 1
Plus one random seat that has to go to the polls again for an unforeseen reason...
Would he be there if he didn;t think it was close?
May 5 UK-Elect detailed forecast
As usual, it takes into account national, regional and constituency polls, and includes top 3 predictions for every UK Constituency.
I've noticed Labours panicky rhetoric more so in the last two days than at any other point in the campaign. Being that the polls are tied, is there any reason for them continue with this stance "if" they seem likely to become largest party?
This is a man who was so outraged by the activities of the NOTW, he used to ring up his man on the celeb gossip desk there and get them to spike stories about his illegal behaviour.
23:00 7th May
Houghton & Sunderland South
Richard Peter Elvin (UKIP) 5,150
Stewart Hay (Conservative) 8,277
Bridget Phillipson (Labour) 20,106
Others less than 1,000
Con-> Lab swing 2.3%
Caution - there is an MOE.
Furthermore, my impression is that sectarian gerrymandering has rendered most seats 'safe' for one party or another - but I'm happy to be educated/corrected!
@nickeardley: David Cameron is planning to "cling on" in Downing Street after the election, claims Gordon Brown
The NHS is either the most important or 2nd most important issue in all the polls.
Over two thirds of hospitals have forecast deficits nearly all the clinical access standards are worse under the Tories.
It is valid for LAB to point this out.
I am more and more beginning to think that Milli and Cam know something the pollsters don't/
PT The Alliance will go with the largest party, same as the LDs, their sister party