Talking of predictions, I should make clear that, like antifrank, I think quite a wide range of outcomes remain possible, and I've bet on that basis. I've been checking out my expected P+L against various outcomes. I have a computer model which allows me to estimate which bets will win/lose for various seat totals. For example, I can set assumptions for the total number of seats won by the SNP, LD and UKIP, and the model then generates a graph of expected net profit against the final Con seat total, based on assuming that constituencies fall in roughly the order specified by the odds.
Looking at the results, I think I've overdone the 'wide range' bit: in all realistic scenarios my expected profit is almost unchanged from Lab just short of a majority, right up to Con landslide (if there's a Lab Majority the profit becomes huge). The main variable in my book is how well the SNP do.
Time to take a few more last-minute risks, I think!
I've got a similar (but much cruder) spreadsheet. I need to spend a couple of hours updating it tonight and working out just exactly where and with whom I have all my bets.
Mr. Taffys, I can't see that happening. Labour will do badly in Scotland and pretty well in Wales, but losing about 40 odd seats net means [more or less] making zero net gains in England.
Correct. I don;t think Ed's Miliband's labour party will make gains in England. Except West Wirral.
I'll probably look like a d8ckhead on Friday, but I'm calling it as I see it.
The mood music from both main parties in the press suggests that Labour are in trouble. But Labour always seem pessimistic and the Conservatives always seem optimistic. And no one can really say that they understand what the polling means with any honesty.
I do regard the price on Labour Most Seats as absurd. This election is far more uncertain than most because of all the polling upheavals that have taken place in the last five years. The bellcurve of possible outcomes is much flatter than usual.
Anyway, I will do just fine if I'm right or if JackW and Richard Nabavi are right. It will be a less happy night for me if either party gets an overall majority.
LAB most seats price *is* absurd, which is why I've put the a fair proportion of my (meagre) betting fund on it. Simply very good value.
TBF though most of my fund goes on betting on cycling - you won't find better value in any sport than early odds on lower-profile bike races, simply because the bookies - even the better ones like Paddy's & Bet365 - haven't got the hang of the handicapping them and are highly punter-led in adjusting (so much so that tiny bets can halve odds). Given the massive fields (usually 100+ riders) the knowledge gap for those who follow the sport amplifies value potential considerably.
Side note - can't see LDs going below 20 as some here seem to think. My instinct is closer to 30.
Still hearing noises out of Twickenham that Cable could be in trouble..LibDems had to move an action day team on Saturday and Sunday over there to try and firm up his vote. The mansion tax isnt going down at all well in those expensive parts..
It'd be hilarious if Vince Cable is chucked out. OGH must reckon he's in a spot of bother or why would he have lent him his vote in what should be a safe LD seat.
Worth noting that whilst my prediction is more in line with boring consensus than yours, it's also fairly similar to my guesses in the game [the campaign hasn't altered my view that much].
Hardly any difference. I haven't bet much either for or against UKIP. On the non-Scottish constituency bets I've gone mainly for seats which are either straight Con/Lab contests, or LD defences.
@OSE - I think almost all of us got the LDs / Labour split badly wrong in 2010. I know I did. JackW did very well on Tory seat totals, but I presume that was on the back of Labour gains rather than (as it turned out) several notable LD gains.
This election hinges on the Tory defence in their top 50 marginals. I simply don't know how that'll turn out because I think so much depends on who actually turns out on the day.
Most people I speak to are finding it hard to give a sh*t about this one. It truly is the "meh" election.
I greatly appreciate JackW's predictions, but I think digging out the numbers from last time is a useful corrective to some of the "ARSE-denier" rhetoric that has cropped up recently.
Mr. 1000, whilst I'd like that result I think you're overestimating the Conservatives and underestimating Labour (especially if they retain around 10 Scottish seats, which your SNP total implies).
Obviously, F1's my main area of interest, so I suspect my guesses will be less well-informed than most others here. But, for what it's worth:
Con 289 Lab 255 SNP 56 Lib Dems 24 UKIP 3 Plaid Cymru 3 Green 1 NI 18 Speaker 1
My numbers assume that there is a LD bloodbath in the South West, and they hold virtually nothing there. I also assume quite a lot of Con gains from the LibDems in the rest of England, perhaps including Twickenham.
However, I assume the LDs do better against Labour than is generally expected. I expect them to hold on in Birmingham Yardley, and in one of H&WG and Bradford East (apologies to Pulpstar). I don't expect Southwark goes Red. I also expect the LDs to get 3 Scottish seats off the back of anti-SNP tactical voting.
With Labour making few gains off the LibDems, and losing a metric tonne of seats to the SNP, they need to win a lot of seats off the Conservatives. And they will win quite a few. Just not enough.
I think the Conservative tactic of concentrating on LD seats - while bad for coalition relations - is probably the right thing as far as maximising seats totals goes.
Still hearing noises out of Twickenham that Cable could be in trouble..LibDems had to move an action day team on Saturday and Sunday over there to try and firm up his vote. The mansion tax isnt going down at all well in those expensive parts..
Cables constant sniping against the LD's coalition partners, and being caught out by the Daily Telegraph haven't helped his cause.
If they are bricking it in Twickenham, they are bricking in all over London.
Brake is safe I reckon.
2-7 Brake, 9-2 Against Vince is a possible play.
A protest group in Carshalton have delivered 15,000 leaflets saying Tom Brake is responsible for a new incinerator and they HATE HATE HATE him. And some LDs locally have broken ranks and are now helping the blues. Electoral Calculus says Tory gain. What are odds on Tory victory? There is a chance Tory could win.
@GeorgeWParker: Exclusive: Latest Populus poll: Con 34 (+1), Lab 34 (+1), Ukip 13 (-2), Lib Dems 10 (+1). S
The last two Populus polls are the best for the Conservatives in the campaign, but could just reflect reversion to the mean, rather than a real shift to the Tories.
There wasn't a single forecaster last time who got the LD total even close. When the exit poll came out, no-one believed it. Even the academics who'd run it thought it must be wrong, and they hastily amended their model to bump up the LD total. Of course the first cut turned out to be almost exactly spot-on.
If they are bricking it in Twickenham, they are bricking in all over London.
Brake is safe I reckon.
2-7 Brake, 9-2 Against Vince is a possible play.
A protest group in Carshalton have delivered 15,000 leaflets saying Tom Brake is responsible for a new incinerator and they HATE HATE HATE him. And some LDs locally have broken ranks and are now helping the blues. Electoral Calculus says Tory gain. What are odds on Tory victory? There is a chance Tory could win.
Mr. 1000, whilst I'd like that result I think you're overestimating the Conservatives and underestimating Labour (especially if they retain around 10 Scottish seats, which your SNP total implies).
Obviously, F1's my main area of interest, so I suspect my guesses will be less well-informed than most others here. But, for what it's worth:
Con 289 Lab 255 SNP 56 Lib Dems 24 UKIP 3 Plaid Cymru 3 Green 1 NI 18 Speaker 1
My numbers assume that there is a LD bloodbath in the South West, and they hold virtually nothing there. I also assume quite a lot of Con gains from the LibDems in the rest of England, perhaps including Twickenham.
However, I assume the LDs do better against Labour than is generally expected. I expect them to hold on in Birmingham Yardley, and in one of H&WG and Bradford East (apologies to Pulpstar). I don't expect Southwark goes Red. I also expect the LDs to get 3 Scottish seats off the back of anti-SNP tactical voting.
With Labour making few gains off the LibDems, and losing a metric tonne of seats to the SNP, they need to win a lot of seats off the Conservatives. And they will win quite a few. Just not enough.
I think the Conservative tactic of concentrating on LD seats - while bad for coalition relations - is probably the right thing as far as maximising seats totals goes.
One factor which may or not play a role on Thursday. In many places there are local elections as well; how many people will use their "plague on all their houses" vote in the locals (Green, UKIP, independent, etc) in the local but make the ultimate choice in the general election.
Where I live we are electing out (executive) mayor, who will earn a higher salary than our MP and who will probably have a greater impact on our everyday lives. We also have elections for the borough council, and the parish council, and a referendum, so five ballot papers, and four different methods of voting, so plenty of scope for (accidentally) spoiled votes, which may be critical in the highly marginal constituency
I am voting LibDem in the local elections. They have the best candidates by far.
Agreed
We have Far too few good councillors. In the local elections, a good candidate should be supported whatever the party.
Still hearing noises out of Twickenham that Cable could be in trouble..LibDems had to move an action day team on Saturday and Sunday over there to try and firm up his vote. The mansion tax isnt going down at all well in those expensive parts..
It'd be hilarious if Vince Cable is chucked out. OGH must reckon he's in a spot of bother or why would he have lent him his vote in what should be a safe LD seat.
"Were you up for Cable"
Labour supporters are not voting LD. Watch the Labour vote go up. The LD cannot ride two horses. Either, you take our votes to keep the Tories out or you lose our votes.
Mr Davey can send me 10 nicely printed letters. No good. I have already voted Labour.
Still hearing noises out of Twickenham that Cable could be in trouble..LibDems had to move an action day team on Saturday and Sunday over there to try and firm up his vote. The mansion tax isnt going down at all well in those expensive parts..
I think the LDs are in all sorts of trouble where they currently hold affluent middle-clas suburban/posh English seats facing Conservative challengers.
There are a lot of wealthy market towns in the South East of England where Red Liberals have resulted in LD MPs.
The question is: can the LDs get Conservatives to "lend them their vote" on Thursday?
I suspect not - and this puts a lot of seats in play: Eastleigh, Eastbourne, Yeovil, Bath, etc.
'Not if the people on that panel have been winnowed down to a hard core of activists who will never change their minds in a month of Sundays, let alone from one day to the next.'
Spot on, I'm not an activist but was on the panel and finally stopped due to the sheer boredom of filling in the same information day after day and was never going to change my voting intention.
I got the last US presidential election horribly wrong and the Scottish referendum happily wrong. I am, therefore, seen as a crap tipster. But I did call it early for Boris in 2008 and got the hung Parliament result right for 2010 eventually, having initially tipped the Tories. I also called it for a hung parliament in 2015 back in the summer of 2010. And I said EdM would win the Labour leadership and that he would be crap. And on top of all that, I predicted a UKIP surge in Eastern England for the Euro elections long before anyone else.
But you are only ever remembered for being spectacularly right or wrong on here. And I have been vociferously and spectacularly wrong twice. I am confident, though, that I will come close to redemption on Friday.
SO , you know what they say , you have relations with one sheep and you never live it down
Still hearing noises out of Twickenham that Cable could be in trouble..LibDems had to move an action day team on Saturday and Sunday over there to try and firm up his vote. The mansion tax isnt going down at all well in those expensive parts..
I think the LDs are in all sorts of trouble where they currently hold affluent middle-clas suburban/posh English seats facing Conservative challengers.
There are a lot of wealthy market towns in the South East of England where Red Liberals have resulted in LD MPs.
The question is: can the LDs get Conservatives to "lend them their vote" on Thursday?
I suspect not - and this puts a lot of seats in play: Eastleigh, Eastbourne, Yeovil, Bath, etc.
CCHQ piling into yellow seats currently. Bit between teeth going for majority.
''This election is far more uncertain than most because of all the polling upheavals that have taken place in the last five years. ''
If the outcome is uncertain then how come all the forecasts on here are pretty much in line, and the pollsters too. Everybody seems to want to avoid being embarrassed.
My hunch is labour could drop to 220, maybe below that. Those marginals that are being handily pencilled by the bubble in to make up for Labour's Scottish meltdown?
I don;t see labour getting any of them. Except maybe West Wirral.
"My hunch is labour could drop to 220, maybe below that."
Anyway the Scottish Sun continues to push hard for the SNP, it will be interesting to see what impact, if any, their support will have when we see the last Scottish polls:
'Labour supporters are not voting LD. Watch the Labour vote go up. The LD cannot ride two horses. Either, you take our votes to keep the Tories out or you lose our votes.'
Your now the self appointed spokesman for the Labour party !
If they are bricking it in Twickenham, they are bricking in all over London.
Brake is safe I reckon.
2-7 Brake, 9-2 Against Vince is a possible play.
A protest group in Carshalton have delivered 15,000 leaflets saying Tom Brake is responsible for a new incinerator and they HATE HATE HATE him. And some LDs locally have broken ranks and are now helping the blues. Electoral Calculus says Tory gain. What are odds on Tory victory? There is a chance Tory could win.
Another area where the Tories campaign has been utter shit. Miliband was directly responsible for more expensive utility bills, but now parades as people champion on this.
And although I think we need to take the Telegraph's headline with a massive pinch of salt, it is another classic Miliband policy.
Still hearing noises out of Twickenham that Cable could be in trouble..LibDems had to move an action day team on Saturday and Sunday over there to try and firm up his vote. The mansion tax isnt going down at all well in those expensive parts..
It'd be hilarious if Vince Cable is chucked out. OGH must reckon he's in a spot of bother or why would he have lent him his vote in what should be a safe LD seat.
"Were you up for Cable"
Labour supporters are not voting LD. Watch the Labour vote go up. The LD cannot ride two horses. Either, you take our votes to keep the Tories out or you lose our votes.
Mr Davey can send me 10 nicely printed letters. No good. I have already voted Labour.
Fortunately there are not that many Labour supporters who would see a Conservative government rather than have a Lib Dem MP . There will , of course , always be tribal loyalists who will cut off their nose to spite their face .
Still hearing noises out of Twickenham that Cable could be in trouble..LibDems had to move an action day team on Saturday and Sunday over there to try and firm up his vote. The mansion tax isnt going down at all well in those expensive parts..
I think the LDs are in all sorts of trouble where they currently hold affluent middle-clas suburban/posh English seats facing Conservative challengers.
There are a lot of wealthy market towns in the South East of England where Red Liberals have resulted in LD MPs.
The question is: can the LDs get Conservatives to "lend them their vote" on Thursday?
I suspect not - and this puts a lot of seats in play: Eastleigh, Eastbourne, Yeovil, Bath, etc.
Yes. And you also get the urbane upper-middle class "Oh, yah yah, we vote LD" sort who are very affluent, live in sizeable homes and voted LD during the tail-end of the Major years and Blair years when Labour was "safe", the Tories unpopular and these voters wanted to make a values statement, without voting Labour which is anathema to them. In a sense, they could 'afford' to vote LD.
They can't now. There might be only a few hundred, or very low thousands, in LD held seats, but I suspect these will now return to the Tories as in Winchester and Harrogate and OXwab last time.
Anyway the Scottish Sun continues to push hard for the SNP, it will be interesting to see what impact, if any, their support will have when we see the last Scottish polls:
Dyedwoolies final prediction and sagery for GE 2015
Conservatives 286 Labour 272 SNP 49 Lib Dem 14 NI 18 PC 4 UKIP 3 Green 2 Respect 1 Speaker 1
Sagery - Chloe to lose Norwich North as biggest gain of the night for Labour Cons to gain both Southampton seats and 2 Scottish seats Greens to come close in Norwich South (have given it them above)
Ed Miliband is PM with nationalists from Scotland and Wales offering s and c
Labour @ 1.25 to win more seats than the Conservatives in Scotland - a value punt to my mind.
Rationale: DCT is gone - So only BRS is left for the Conservatives. The Lib Dems have incumbency here - I make Tories 2-1 at best to take it. Meanwhile you have the mainland field working for you, Murphy could scrape home and there is probably a shock Labour hold somewhere or other. 1-4 is decent odds at any rate.
Ok - despite saying I haven't a clue what's going on I will make some predictions. What I think might be the big surprise is SNP not making all the gains that everyone seems to have factored in. Otherwise, Labour to do well in London, but fail to pick up many of their key targets outside of the capital (though they'll pick up all the Lab/LD targets, excepting Clegg). So, something like:
My thoughts precisely. I don't know quite what Out are playing at.
If they want to win in 2017, they need to be forming a cross-party group *now* with a clear post-EU goal, and campaign relentlessly for it for the next two years.
Otherwise In will win. Comfortably. I'd say 60-40.
(PS. The plus side of a strong Out campaign, even for pro-EU reformers, is that such pressure would probably put even more steel into the EU-UK government negotiations, as they realised Out was a perfectly credible and possible outcome)
If UKIP and other Out supporters were actually serious about wanting us to leave the EU, they'd have recommended their supporters to vote Conservative to get the referendum, reformed themselves as the Out campaign, and spent the last couple of years building up a really solid political, economic and practical case, taking full advantage of people like Dan Hannan. Instead the Kippers are playing at immigration-politics, working to put Ed Miliband into No 10, and making a referendum as unlikely as they can. That's their prerogative, of course, but their actions demonstrate conclusively that their priority is not leaving the EU.
Very true. The split amongst the euro sceptics has reduced the chances of a referendum.
Still hearing noises out of Twickenham that Cable could be in trouble..LibDems had to move an action day team on Saturday and Sunday over there to try and firm up his vote. The mansion tax isnt going down at all well in those expensive parts..
It'd be hilarious if Vince Cable is chucked out. OGH must reckon he's in a spot of bother or why would he have lent him his vote in what should be a safe LD seat.
"Were you up for Cable"
Labour supporters are not voting LD. Watch the Labour vote go up. The LD cannot ride two horses. Either, you take our votes to keep the Tories out or you lose our votes.
Mr Davey can send me 10 nicely printed letters. No good. I have already voted Labour.
Fortunately there are not that many Labour supporters who would see a Conservative government rather than have a Lib Dem MP . There will , of course , always be tribal loyalists who will cut off their nose to spite their face .
@surbiton is wonderfully hysterical about the LibDems
Still hearing noises out of Twickenham that Cable could be in trouble..LibDems had to move an action day team on Saturday and Sunday over there to try and firm up his vote. The mansion tax isnt going down at all well in those expensive parts..
It'd be hilarious if Vince Cable is chucked out. OGH must reckon he's in a spot of bother or why would he have lent him his vote in what should be a safe LD seat.
"Were you up for Cable"
If only if only. Oh deep joy. Alas probably just a dream.
If they are bricking it in Twickenham, they are bricking in all over London.
Brake is safe I reckon.
2-7 Brake, 9-2 Against Vince is a possible play.
A protest group in Carshalton have delivered 15,000 leaflets saying Tom Brake is responsible for a new incinerator and they HATE HATE HATE him. And some LDs locally have broken ranks and are now helping the blues. Electoral Calculus says Tory gain. What are odds on Tory victory? There is a chance Tory could win.
There wasn't a single forecaster last time who got the LD total even close. When the exit poll came out, no-one believed it. Even the academics who'd run it thought it must be wrong, and they hastily amended their model to bump up the LD total. Of course the first cut turned out to be almost exactly spot-on.
So are there elements of the consensus that might be wrong this time, or do we have so much more information (eg from the Ashcroft polling) that there isn't the scope for that?
I think a net increase in Conservative seats is one such possibility, and isn't that outlandish if you start your analysis with the phone polls, but I've not seen a prediction that doesn't have Tory losses to Labour > Tory gains from Liberal Democrats.
A few people are predicting that the SNP will end up with around the number of MPs that the Lib Dems won at GE2010 (57), but no-one has forecast the converse of six seats for the Lib Dems this time.
An exit poll that put UKIP above 10 seats would defy the consensus as much as the 2010 exit poll did on Lib Dem seats. Is it really that unlikely?
Still hearing noises out of Twickenham that Cable could be in trouble..LibDems had to move an action day team on Saturday and Sunday over there to try and firm up his vote. The mansion tax isnt going down at all well in those expensive parts..
It'd be hilarious if Vince Cable is chucked out. OGH must reckon he's in a spot of bother or why would he have lent him his vote in what should be a safe LD seat.
"Were you up for Cable"
If only if only. Oh deep joy. Alas probably just a dream.
I wasn't around when it happened, but I believe it was because Easterross criticised OGH and John Curtice in a thread. I doubt my post on this subject will last the duration of this thread. But I feel pretty strongly about a decision like this on a site that allowed some pretty strong and prolonged abuse to some regular posters to go unchecked for years while being extremely thin skinned about any criticism of their own opinions. And especially after they have on more than one occasion tried to undermine particular posters like Easterross. At the end of the day, who has contributed more to the site on a regular basis, Easteross or MalcolmG?
FPT. "franklyn Posts: 31 May 4 We haven't heard from Easteross for a while; would value his latest insights"
Sadly, Easteross was banned from PB.com a wee while ago, some castigate him for a Scots Tory surge that didn't happen while totally ignoring fact that he got it right on Libdem seat drop at last GE. But you can still contact him via twitter @M Sutherland-Fisher to get his 2015 GE predictions.
Banned for what? I don't remember Easteross as a particularly abrasive poster or one that got into huge spats with anybody.
Away you useless Tory halfwit , you would not recognise a contribution if it slapped you on the face. Keep your personal hatred of me out of it you whinging halfwit, stick to talking mince about Tory surges.
Thank you for proving her point......
The halfwit deserves it , she cannot insult people with impunity.
So the online polls aren't budging at all, neck and neck as far as they are concerned. If the result is anything like that then Labour will be the biggest party. Tory people have to hope the online polls are wrong!
My thoughts precisely. I don't know quite what Out are playing at.
If they want to win in 2017, they need to be forming a cross-party group *now* with a clear post-EU goal, and campaign relentlessly for it for the next two years.
Otherwise In will win. Comfortably. I'd say 60-40.
(PS. The plus side of a strong Out campaign, even for pro-EU reformers, is that such pressure would probably put even more steel into the EU-UK government negotiations, as they realised Out was a perfectly credible and possible outcome)
If UKIP and other Out supporters were actually serious about wanting us to leave the EU, they'd have recommended their supporters to vote Conservative to get the referendum, reformed themselves as the Out campaign, and spent the last couple of years building up a really solid political, economic and practical case, taking full advantage of people like Dan Hannan. Instead the Kippers are playing at immigration-politics, working to put Ed Miliband into No 10, and making a referendum as unlikely as they can. That's their prerogative, of course, but their actions demonstrate conclusively that their priority is not leaving the EU.
Very true. The split amongst the euro sceptics has reduced the chances of a referendum.
Not really - Cameron wouldn't have committed to it in the first place if UKIP weren't snaffling his voters.
There wasn't a single forecaster last time who got the LD total even close. When the exit poll came out, no-one believed it. Even the academics who'd run it thought it must be wrong, and they hastily amended their model to bump up the LD total. Of course the first cut turned out to be almost exactly spot-on.
So are there elements of the consensus that might be wrong this time, or do we have so much more information (eg from the Ashcroft polling) that there isn't the scope for that?
I think a net increase in Conservative seats is one such possibility, and isn't that outlandish if you start your analysis with the phone polls, but I've not seen a prediction that doesn't have Tory losses to Labour > Tory gains from Liberal Democrats.
A few people are predicting that the SNP will end up with around the number of MPs that the Lib Dems won at GE2010 (57), but no-one has forecast the converse of six seats for the Lib Dems this time.
An exit poll that put UKIP above 10 seats would defy the consensus as much as the 2010 exit poll did on Lib Dem seats. Is it really that unlikely?
I didn't get the chance to mention earlier - our estate got canvassed by the Tories yesterday afternoon. I was very polite to the young chap in the Barbour jacket who came to our door.
What they were doing in Bishop Auckland rather than Stockton South is a mystery.
Not really - Cameron wouldn't have committed to it in the first place if UKIP weren't snaffling his voters.
Maybe so, but once he had committed to it, if they actually wanted it they'd have stopped snaffling his voters. As Dan Hannan has put it, 'What part of the word Yes do they not understand?"
Greens to come close in Norwich South (have given it them above)
That would be a very pleasant surprise. I havent canvassed in Norwich in years so I had presumed from the outside it would be a very tough ask the way local results were going. I'd be more than happy with retaining Brighton Pavilion and getting one or two 2nd places. Anything more would be a bonus.
Con 299 Labour 261 LibDem 21 UKIP 1 SNP 44 PC 4 NI 18 Respect 1 Green 1 Speaker 1
Conservative minority government with pretty much only constitutional stuff on the Queen's Speech, for example:
Referendum on EU (to gain support of own party, UKIP and DUP) FFA for Scotland, or certainly control of benefits to Scottish Government as a minimum (for the SNats) More devo for Wales NI to get control of benefits(for the DUP) with some cash. Some form of EV4EL (politically hard for labour and the Nats too vote against)
Challenge anyone to vote it down - Cameron to stay for the referendum then hand over the reins, and fresh election in 2018.
Won't happen, but it would make politics seriously interesting.
Thanet South, Rochester, Clacton, Thurrock, Boston & Skegness. (Castle Point, Dudley North and Rother Valley are also possibilities if one of those five doesn't happen).
Dunno if anyone has already posted this from Tim Shippers:
'Crucially for the Conservatives 50% of voters now say the government is managing the economy well, a mark it has not hit since June 2010. A YouGov poll for the Sun on Sunday also finds that 49% of voters now make the economy their top election issue — up 10 points since January – ahead of the NHS and immigration."
Which is entirely consistent with a combined right wing parties vote share of 45-50%.
As I keep saying, there seems a reasonable acquiescence amongst many voters to Cameron remaining as PM, with the "antis" being largely those who voted "anti-Tory" in 2010, and many UKIP voters think voting UKIP will strengthen PM Cameron's hand in a second term.
But it won't. It will put Ed into power.
There is no disconnect at all between current vote shares and current approval ratings. Hence I think a lot of people will be genuinely shocked to see Ed shortly becoming Prime Minister.
I didn't get the chance to mention earlier - our estate got canvassed by the Tories yesterday afternoon. I was very polite to the young chap in the Barbour jacket who came to our door.
What they were doing in Bishop Auckland rather than Stockton South is a mystery.
Sent up from CCO - took the wrong platform for the Bishop Auckland/ Middlesbrough service at Darlington?
Social security policy is already devolved to Northern Ireland. It almost brought down power sharing recently. They cant really handle the responsibility.
I didn't get the chance to mention earlier - our estate got canvassed by the Tories yesterday afternoon. I was very polite to the young chap in the Barbour jacket who came to our door.
What they were doing in Bishop Auckland rather than Stockton South is a mystery.
They use elections to make reconnaissance missions into enemy territory to identify the location of future supplies of babies to eat.
Social security policy is already devolved to Northern Ireland. It almost brought down power sharing recently. They cant really handle the responsibility.
I didn't know that. I saw somewhere that the bedroom tax was a DUP red line. Bit more cash then?
Greens to come close in Norwich South (have given it them above)
That would be a very pleasant surprise. I havent canvassed in Norwich in years so I had presumed from the outside it would be a very tough ask the way local results were going. I'd be more than happy with retaining Brighton Pavilion and getting one or two 2nd places. Anything more would be a bonus.
Greens to trounce the yellow peril in Sheffield Central I reckon.
Social security policy is already devolved to Northern Ireland. It almost brought down power sharing recently. They cant really handle the responsibility.
I didn't know that. I saw somewhere that the bedroom tax was a DUP red line. Bit more cash then?
Devolution of social security is special. All they have to do is lay orders for Northern Ireland equivalent to those for England, Wales and Scotland. They're having great difficulty with this right now though because it interferes with Sinn Féin's desire to enter government in Dublin.
Give the DUP cash. Give them a bridge from Larne to Scotland. They're yours. Anybody's. Despite what some of our more bonkers Nat posters think.
Comments
I've lost track of a few.
2-7 Brake, 9-2 Against Vince is a possible play.
Correct. I don;t think Ed's Miliband's labour party will make gains in England. Except West Wirral.
I'll probably look like a d8ckhead on Friday, but I'm calling it as I see it.
Definitely lean Con-LD normally.
TBF though most of my fund goes on betting on cycling - you won't find better value in any sport than early odds on lower-profile bike races, simply because the bookies - even the better ones like Paddy's & Bet365 - haven't got the hang of the handicapping them and are highly punter-led in adjusting (so much so that tiny bets can halve odds). Given the massive fields (usually 100+ riders) the knowledge gap for those who follow the sport amplifies value potential considerably.
Side note - can't see LDs going below 20 as some here seem to think. My instinct is closer to 30.
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2015/05/election-night-will-the-silent-ukip-phenomenon-come-to-pass/
Worth noting that whilst my prediction is more in line with boring consensus than yours, it's also fairly similar to my guesses in the game [the campaign hasn't altered my view that much].
And hello all.
We could be in for an exciting night.
Con 296
Lab 254
SNP 55
Lib Dem 21
NI 18
UKIP 2
PC 3
Speaker 1
Lab+SNP>Con
Con+LD not enough. Election in October.
However, I assume the LDs do better against Labour than is generally expected. I expect them to hold on in Birmingham Yardley, and in one of H&WG and Bradford East (apologies to Pulpstar). I don't expect Southwark goes Red. I also expect the LDs to get 3 Scottish seats off the back of anti-SNP tactical voting.
With Labour making few gains off the LibDems, and losing a metric tonne of seats to the SNP, they need to win a lot of seats off the Conservatives. And they will win quite a few. Just not enough.
I think the Conservative tactic of concentrating on LD seats - while bad for coalition relations - is probably the right thing as far as maximising seats totals goes.
The author is a LibDem. If that matters.
If Lab/SNP or Con/LD are > 325, they'll do it.
A protest group in Carshalton have delivered 15,000 leaflets saying Tom Brake is responsible for a new incinerator and they HATE HATE HATE him. And some LDs locally have broken ranks and are now helping the blues. Electoral Calculus says Tory gain. What are odds on Tory victory? There is a chance Tory could win.
Con votes, seats + £48 or so, any other outcome = ~ +£200 (Except a tie which is going to have me looking at alot of Bookie/Betfair contortions...)
Lab seats does look like great value but the price just gets relentlessly moved against. It's a very tricky one.
See here:
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/05/
We have Far too few good councillors. In the local elections, a good candidate should be supported whatever the party.
Perhaps another reason why the papers aren't willing to back him.
Mr Davey can send me 10 nicely printed letters. No good. I have already voted Labour.
The question is: can the LDs get Conservatives to "lend them their vote" on Thursday?
I suspect not - and this puts a lot of seats in play: Eastleigh, Eastbourne, Yeovil, Bath, etc.
'Not if the people on that panel have been winnowed down to a hard core of activists who will never change their minds in a month of Sundays, let alone from one day to the next.'
Spot on, I'm not an activist but was on the panel and finally stopped due to the sheer boredom of filling in the same information day after day and was never going to change my voting intention.
CCHQ piling into yellow seats currently. Bit between teeth going for majority.
You will be reminded.
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics/general-election-2015-jim-murphy-5637727
Anyway the Scottish Sun continues to push hard for the SNP, it will be interesting to see what impact, if any, their support will have when we see the last Scottish polls:
http://www.thescottishsun.co.uk/scotsol/homepage/news/ge2015/6441099/Queen-Nic-First-Ministers-winning-formula.html
My overall prediction:
Cons 280
Labour 270
Lib Dems 20
SNP 55
Green 1
UKIP 3
Respect 1
The LibDems is the hardest one to call I think, they could get anything from 15 to 30 seats.
'Labour supporters are not voting LD. Watch the Labour vote go up. The LD cannot ride two horses. Either, you take our votes to keep the Tories out or you lose our votes.'
Your now the self appointed spokesman for the Labour party !
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/11582173/The-200bn-economic-bombshell-lurking-in-the-Labour-Partys-manifesto.html
Another area where the Tories campaign has been utter shit. Miliband was directly responsible for more expensive utility bills, but now parades as people champion on this.
And although I think we need to take the Telegraph's headline with a massive pinch of salt, it is another classic Miliband policy.
They can't now. There might be only a few hundred, or very low thousands, in LD held seats, but I suspect these will now return to the Tories as in Winchester and Harrogate and OXwab last time.
They would be Tories in rural seats.
LD 13% = 34 seats
(Assuming UKIP 14%)
Take the 4-1 available on 11-20 seats. Hedge it with a few LD "hold" bets.
Conservatives 286
Labour 272
SNP 49
Lib Dem 14
NI 18
PC 4
UKIP 3
Green 2
Respect 1
Speaker 1
Sagery - Chloe to lose Norwich North as biggest gain of the night for Labour
Cons to gain both Southampton seats and 2 Scottish seats
Greens to come close in Norwich South (have given it them above)
Ed Miliband is PM with nationalists from Scotland and Wales offering s and c
Labour @ 1.25 to win more seats than the Conservatives in Scotland - a value punt to my mind.
Rationale: DCT is gone - So only BRS is left for the Conservatives. The Lib Dems have incumbency here - I make Tories 2-1 at best to take it. Meanwhile you have the mainland field working for you, Murphy could scrape home and there is probably a shock Labour hold somewhere or other. 1-4 is decent odds at any rate.
Con 300
Lab 280
SNP 25
LD 25
UKIP 3
PC 3
Formation of Con/ LD Coalition 2.0 touch and go.
Hic!
I think a net increase in Conservative seats is one such possibility, and isn't that outlandish if you start your analysis with the phone polls, but I've not seen a prediction that doesn't have Tory losses to Labour > Tory gains from Liberal Democrats.
A few people are predicting that the SNP will end up with around the number of MPs that the Lib Dems won at GE2010 (57), but no-one has forecast the converse of six seats for the Lib Dems this time.
An exit poll that put UKIP above 10 seats would defy the consensus as much as the 2010 exit poll did on Lib Dem seats. Is it really that unlikely?
Latest Populus poll (01 - 03 May):
CON - 34% (+1)
LAB - 34% (+1)
UKIP - 13% (-2)
LDEM - 10% (+1)
But EVERY online pollster has massively weighted UKIP. There is upside potential for them.
Con 285
Lab 258
SNP 50
LD 30
UKIP 5
PC 3
Green 1
What they were doing in Bishop Auckland rather than Stockton South is a mystery.
http://metro.co.uk/2015/02/19/tory-mp-david-burrowes-accidentally-goes-campaigning-in-the-wrong-constituency-5070063/
Con 299
Labour 261
LibDem 21
UKIP 1
SNP 44
PC 4
NI 18
Respect 1
Green 1
Speaker 1
Conservative minority government with pretty much only constitutional stuff on the Queen's Speech, for example:
Referendum on EU (to gain support of own party, UKIP and DUP)
FFA for Scotland, or certainly control of benefits to Scottish Government as a minimum (for the SNats)
More devo for Wales
NI to get control of benefits(for the DUP) with some cash.
Some form of EV4EL (politically hard for labour and the Nats too vote against)
Challenge anyone to vote it down - Cameron to stay for the referendum then hand over the reins, and fresh election in 2018.
Won't happen, but it would make politics seriously interesting.
Hearing that today's ICM poll will be so close to Gold Standard that it can be printed off and used as legal tender.
As I keep saying, there seems a reasonable acquiescence amongst many voters to Cameron remaining as PM, with the "antis" being largely those who voted "anti-Tory" in 2010, and many UKIP voters think voting UKIP will strengthen PM Cameron's hand in a second term.
But it won't. It will put Ed into power.
There is no disconnect at all between current vote shares and current approval ratings. Hence I think a lot of people will be genuinely shocked to see Ed shortly becoming Prime Minister.
Week 2 Results
CON +10
LAB -1
UKIP -3
LD -4
GREEN NC
All Time Results (April 20th to Present including todays Populus)
CON +2
LAB -13
UKIP +3
LD -1
GREEN +1
https://twitter.com/johnmknox/status/595349493492666370
We're not going to be as wide awake as the tories, nor are we going to be as sleepy as Labour.
More Goldilocks stuff from the LibDems?
Give the DUP cash. Give them a bridge from Larne to Scotland. They're yours. Anybody's. Despite what some of our more bonkers Nat posters think.