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  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    woody662 said:

    AndrewP said:

    If this poll is accurately representing the CON-LAB vote shares and can be translated directly to English marginals why is Ed Miliband visiting North Warwickshire at this stage? That should surely already be in the bag if they thought they were going to get the 3.5% swing implied by this poll.

    Firstly because nobody knows whether this poll is right, including Ed Miliband.

    Secondly because even if this poll is right, there are still two days to go.

    Thirdly because the seats don't all swing uniformly - some will go Lab by quite a lot more than the average, and some by less, even to the point of swinging in the opposite direction.
    The Con majority is 56 and and the incumbent has stepped down. We were target 70 something last time round and didn't get a leader visit as we were seen as in the bag. Very odd for the leader to be going to target number 1 in the last few days and indicates a state of panic at Labour HQ which beat the UNS last time such was its knowledge of the ground war.

    I doubt knowledge of the ground war has much to do with whether you out-perform UNS or not, but in any case Labour haven't out-peformed UNS since 2001.

    See:
    http://www.libdemvoice.org/uniform-national-swing-2010-19644.html
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,712
    Charles said:

    @Charles - thank you, that's very kind. Yes, I'd certainly be interested in hearing more about it.

    Please do VM me if you wish.

    Off to galivant around Europe for a few days, but will put you in touch with Matthew Elliott when I get back. Can you PM an email address I can use for you?
    Will do Charles. At work atm but will drop you a line later.
  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276
    PeterC said:

    hunchman said:

    PeterC said:

    JackW said:

    Very sorry to hear @Easterross has been lost to the site .... even if he decided to vote against "Our Viscount" which of course should be a capital offence.

    @Easterross should have been allowed to continue posting on PB even as he was led up the steps of the gallows.

    JackW - Fair, just and compassionate to the end.

    Let us each and all demand his return.
    I'll second that.

    Brother and sister in law thinking of voting tactically for labour in ed south. Ian Murray had done as good job with sorting out our local park my brother says! I'm desperately trying to dissuade them following the advice of rifkind and forsythe. They're yesterday's failed scots tories. Why anyone should listen to them is beyond me!

    A grand eve-of-poll amnesty to all banned posters would be a splendid gesture IMO.
    Bring back Tim & Stuart Truth
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,328
    edited May 2015
    Plato said:

    I'd agree with most of those - I met Mr Corbyn as an invited special guest when I worked at DWP in Whitehall. He wears a great deal of corduroy and comes across as the most dreary worthy and rather Puritanical sort - with a twist of Greenham Common.

    IIRC he has one of the lowest expenses claims. His views aren't mine. He's the sort I'd dread sitting next to at a wedding reception.

    Cyclefree said:

    People I hope will lose include:-

    - Galloway.
    - Tristram Hunt - patronising.
    - Ummuna - far too self-regarding and if he's the next best hope for Labour, God help them. Stella Creasey or Liz Kendall are the people to whom they should be looking.
    - Caroline Lucas - the level of self-righteousness that comes out of her mouth ought to be enough to power the entire country, if only it could be harnessed.
    - all of the more idiotic Tory backwoodsmen (Bone / Dorries etc).
    - Jeremy Corbyn and Andy Slaughter: hopelessly unprogressive.
    - Tom Watson: more preening self-righteousness. Having to pay for his own food will do his figure good.
    - Harman: gives feminism a bad name.

    People who I hope will win: my local Lib Dem candidate - Maajid Nawaz and most Lib Dem MPs. They have - whatever other faults they may have - largely behaved like grown-ups.

    Of course, none of this will happen, sadly, except - maybe - Galloway.

    I would add Margaret Hodge to the list.

    I don't care about what he wears. It's his views and his associations which put him on my Waste Bin List.

    Todays BJESUS (maybe final one depending on WIFI n Devon)

    5.5.15 LAB 287 (288) CON 272(272) LD 29(29) UKIP 3(2) Others 59(59) (Ed is crap is PM)
    Last weeks BJESUS in brackets
    BJESUS (Big John Election Service Uniform Swing) BJESUS (Big John Election Service Uniform Swing)
    Using current polling adjusted for 2 days left to go factor and using UKPR standard swingometer

    BJO. I haven't a clue what the result is going to be, but if you're wrong you probably know you're likely to get dog's abuse from some posters. If that happens, I would urge you to continue posting. I value your insights and it is really important to have some dissenting voices in the face of the tory majority on this site.
    I second that.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417
    edited May 2015
    The breakdown of NI "18" could be important.

    I think the DUP will get 9 at a canter and possibly 10.

    The SDLP in particular has seemed anecdotally weak and could ship a seat to Sinn Fein and 1 to the DUP.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    timmo said:

    It was reporeted at the weekend that CCHQ have ordered candidates not in 40/40 seats to descend on those seats over the next 72 hours and abandon their respective constituencies. One PPC affected by this told me that CCHQ were deluded in thinking that all these other no hope seats had "Panzer divisions" that they could move across to these 40/40 seats when the reality is that these divisions of Tanks do not exist.
    This one candidate told CCHQ to go and take a running jump..didnt go down too well i gather..

    What is a 40/40 seat ?
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Pulpstar said:

    What are the CON & LAB campaign schedules for tommorow.

    Dave is visiting Bootle I think, as well as East Ham, Banff & Buchan
    Yup, Bootle likely Tory gain !
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,712
    Cyclefree said:

    Probably coincidence but the releasing of the FoI request re Rotherham probably not that helpful for Labour

    There was an interesting interview this morning with the new Police Commissioner for the area who said - and I think there is probably a high degree of truth in this - that no-one took child prostitution seriously. They thought of the girls as participants rather than as victims. The fact that they were legally children and therefore quite unable to consent - a fact which you would have thought that policemen would know - was simply ignored, no doubt because it suited all and sundry for a variety of reasons which have been well-rehearsed, not to get involved. But fundamentally no-one cared at all or enough about these children, other than perhaps their poor families.

    I do, however, feel uneasy about using this in a party political sense. Child abuse is not the preserve of any one political party. It is more a lesson about having one party in power for so long or so confident of victory that it develops contempt for its voters (see SLAB) and sometimes contempt for the law (see Tower Hamlets).
    taffys said:

    Either elaborate bluff, or Tories now convinced they've got this.

    Isn;t this what the Ashcroft polling has been about all along? shocking the tory leadership out of its complacency?

    Yes - given the way the polls have been the Tories may well be suffering Romney-style complacency and Labour seem far too downbeat given that as our own BJO regularly tells us it is likely that EICIPM.

    Or we may all be wrong, of course!

    The British care more about animals than children.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    The Independent backs continuation of LibDem/Tory coalition.
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-32585930

    According to the BBC they didn't back any party, but hoped that the coalition, if it continued, would be more liberal and less conservative.

    Selective interpretation, anyone?
    No, the Tory-run BBC has directly quoted the last line of the Independent's editorial.
    http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/editorials/in-defence-of-liberal-democracy-10224221.html
    Read the whole thing: as one-line summaries go, it is fair enough. If anything, the Indy is more pro-LibDem than indicated.
    Mine was a paraphrase, not a literal transcription - the key phrases were separated by John Humphries chuntering on.

    It came across to a half awake listener as the Independent being opposed to the Tories - which I'm not sure they are having read the editorial last night (I reckon they are basically ABL, but preference for LibDems in LD/C marginals)
    Tbh I'm inclined to doubt any votes are swung but it seems to have become a tradition for newspapers to publish an editorial directing readers to cast their votes in one direction or another. I wonder what the Racing Post will say.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736

    Todays BJESUS (maybe final one depending on WIFI n Devon)

    5.5.15 LAB 287 (288) CON 272(272) LD 29(29) UKIP 3(2) Others 59(59) (Ed is crap is PM)
    Last weeks BJESUS in brackets
    BJESUS (Big John Election Service Uniform Swing) BJESUS (Big John Election Service Uniform Swing)
    Using current polling adjusted for 2 days left to go factor and using UKPR standard swingometer

    BJO. I haven't a clue what the result is going to be, but if you're wrong you probably know you're likely to get dog's abuse from some posters. If that happens, I would urge you to continue posting. I value your insights and it is really important to have some dissenting voices in the face of the tory majority on this site.
    Been getting Dogs abuse since became a regular poster last June.

    I am going nowhere whatever the result but thanks for your comments.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417
    surbiton said:

    timmo said:

    It was reporeted at the weekend that CCHQ have ordered candidates not in 40/40 seats to descend on those seats over the next 72 hours and abandon their respective constituencies. One PPC affected by this told me that CCHQ were deluded in thinking that all these other no hope seats had "Panzer divisions" that they could move across to these 40/40 seats when the reality is that these divisions of Tanks do not exist.
    This one candidate told CCHQ to go and take a running jump..didnt go down too well i gather..

    What is a 40/40 seat ?
    Con 40 Holds; Con 40 Gains.

    I live in one of the gains, NE Derbyshire !

  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    What time should Ashcroft and Populus be out?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,509
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    malcolmg said:

    fitalass said:

    I wasn't around when it happened, but I believe it was because Easterross criticised OGH and John Curtice in a thread. I doubt my post on this subject will last the duration of this thread. But I feel pretty strongly about a decision like this on a site that allowed some pretty strong and prolonged abuse to some regular posters to go unchecked for years while being extremely thin skinned about any criticism of their own opinions. And especially after they have on more than one occasion tried to undermine particular posters like Easterross. At the end of the day, who has contributed more to the site on a regular basis, Easteross or MalcolmG?

    fitalass said:

    FPT. "franklyn Posts: 31
    May 4
    We haven't heard from Easteross for a while; would value his latest insights"

    Sadly, Easteross was banned from PB.com a wee while ago, some castigate him for a Scots Tory surge that didn't happen while totally ignoring fact that he got it right on Libdem seat drop at last GE. But you can still contact him via twitter @M Sutherland-Fisher to get his 2015 GE predictions.

    Banned for what? I don't remember Easteross as a particularly abrasive poster or one that got into huge spats with anybody.
    Away you useless Tory halfwit , you would not recognise a contribution if it slapped you on the face. Keep your personal hatred of me out of it you whinging halfwit, stick to talking mince about Tory surges.
    Moderators

    This is uncalled for and should be deleted.

    The best thing to do is what I have decided to do. Ignore anything Malcolm G posts . If he insults someone he will just look the fool he regularly presents himself as..
    Someone has to gently point out to the world the arse that he is.
    LOL, Boo Hoo Wah Moderators a big jessie just insulted me it should be removed immediately Boo Hoo Wah. Typical two faced Tory toff , you can insult the peasants but insist that they doff their cap to you. What a turnip.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,712
    @antifrank - that represents c.50 Labour gains from the Conservatives. That's quite bullish and more so than what Ashcroft shows.

    That said, given your intelligence and experience, your prediction is not one anyone should dismiss. JackW/Curtice v. OGH/Antifrank.

    Egg-on-face award to be awarded this Friday afternoon!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,032
    OllyT said:

    DavidL said:

    Although, as pointed out down thread, these results were not particularly accurate when compared to the GB figures Mike is right that Yougov underestimated both of the main parties fairly equally and therefore got the gap between them very close. This should indeed cause those who have convinced themselves that the phone poll are not only more in line with their own desires but clearly preferable to pause.

    And then, in my opinion, move on again. My biggest concern about Yougov this time around is that in many ways they are victims of their own success. Last time they had a large and new enough panel to be broadly representative which had not been exhausted by daily polling month after month after month.

    We have had posters on here who have said that they have completed 3 or even 6 polls recently. One admires the perseverance of such posters whose political geekism marks them out as being in no way typical of the average Brit. We have also seen disproportionate numbers watching the debates and generally having an awareness that an election is on. I fear that their panel has become dominated by political partisans who will not change their position no matter what resulting in almost no movement.

    The results are only 2 days away but I am fairly sure that they will show that this persistent tie (within MoE) that Yougov have given us for weeks now is not accurate. I expect the Tories to get the most votes. Whether this will be by enough to give them the most seats is harder to call. The answer would clearly have been no but for Scotland but now I expect it to be really close which makes the 80% probability on Betfair and the 25 seat lead on SPIN look out of line to me.

    Could it be argued that using a fixed panel might be better at detecting movement /switches than phone polls that use an entirely different set of respondents each time? I don't know but we don't have long to wait to find out.

    I am interested to see whether the final batch of phone polls show as big a difference to the onlines as last week, starting today, I believe, with Lord A who had a Tory lead of 6% and Labour on 29% from memory, last week.
    Not if the people on that panel have been winnowed down to a hard core of activists who will never change their minds in a month of Sundays, let alone from one day to the next.
  • Plato said:

    I'd agree with most of those - I met Mr Corbyn as an invited special guest when I worked at DWP in Whitehall. He wears a great deal of corduroy and comes across as the most dreary worthy and rather Puritanical sort - with a twist of Greenham Common.

    IIRC he has one of the lowest expenses claims. His views aren't mine. He's the sort I'd dread sitting next to at a wedding reception.

    Cyclefree said:

    People I hope will lose include:-

    - Galloway.
    - Tristram Hunt - patronising.
    - Ummuna - far too self-regarding and if he's the next best hope for Labour, God help them. Stella Creasey or Liz Kendall are the people to whom they should be looking.
    - Caroline Lucas - the level of self-righteousness that comes out of her mouth ought to be enough to power the entire country, if only it could be harnessed.
    - all of the more idiotic Tory backwoodsmen (Bone / Dorries etc).
    - Jeremy Corbyn and Andy Slaughter: hopelessly unprogressive.
    - Tom Watson: more preening self-righteousness. Having to pay for his own food will do his figure good.
    - Harman: gives feminism a bad name.

    People who I hope will win: my local Lib Dem candidate - Maajid Nawaz and most Lib Dem MPs. They have - whatever other faults they may have - largely behaved like grown-ups.

    Of course, none of this will happen, sadly, except - maybe - Galloway.

    Probably has a soap allergy.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,216

    Scott_P said:

    @DPJHodges: Just seen tomorrow's final day campaign schedule. Either elaborate bluff, or Tories now convinced they've got this.

    I cannot call it... from all the mood music, the tories seems to be feeling fairly comfortable, but they must be seeing something (along with the punters) that the polls aren't.
    Or they may have their own polls, like Mitt Romney...
    Or Alec Salmond.....
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    Morning all, interesting polling day to come.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672
    Everyone who posts on here should be making a public prediction of the result. Having done a bands one last week, here's my final seat count one:

    Cons 290
    Labour 254
    Lib Dems 27
    SNP 55
    NI 18
    Green 1
    UKIP 3
    Respect 1
    Speaker

    However, to hedge a little: I see more upside than downside for the Tories on their figure and more downside than upside for Labour on theirs. I may be slightly underplaying the SNP total too.

  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    My wife informs me that the UKIP poster / billboard up near Assington has been knocked down again - every day someone knocks it down and every day it gets repaired or replaced.

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417

    Morning all, interesting polling day to come.

    Morning 'pouter !

    Big day for Basil ?
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,680
    When I have to make a choice between similar things, perhaps in a supermarket, and I can't make my mind up, I tend to choose the item with a familiar name. I guess that is the basis of branding.

    If I'm a "don't know" or "not sure" and I'm standing in a polling station, pencil in hand, I may tend to go for a familiar name.

    This may be the basis of the "incumbency" effect. It is not really incumbency; it is familiarity. It may benefit familiar names such as Farage and Salmond (and Palmer?) who are not incumbents.

    The familiarity effect on the "don't knows" and "not sures" (i.e. the swing voters) may also produce a bias back to the status quo (swing back?).

    Obviously if you are familiar with a name but detest them you are not going to vote for them. The familiarity effect only works if you are unsure who to vote for and have no strong views on the candidates.

    I'm suspicious of relying on statistical features that don't also have a credible mechanism to explain them.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822

    My thoughts precisely. I don't know quite what Out are playing at.

    If they want to win in 2017, they need to be forming a cross-party group *now* with a clear post-EU goal, and campaign relentlessly for it for the next two years.

    Otherwise In will win. Comfortably. I'd say 60-40.

    (PS. The plus side of a strong Out campaign, even for pro-EU reformers, is that such pressure would probably put even more steel into the EU-UK government negotiations, as they realised Out was a perfectly credible and possible outcome)

    Absolutely, I've been saying this for years. If UKIP and other Out supporters were actually serious about wanting us to leave the EU, they'd have recommended their supporters to vote Conservative to get the referendum, reformed themselves as the Out campaign, and spent the last couple of years building up a really solid political, economic and practical case, taking full advantage of people like Dan Hannan.

    Instead the Kippers are playing at immigration-politics, working to put Ed Miliband into No 10, and making a referendum as unlikely as they can. That's their prerogative, of course, but their actions demonstrate conclusively that their priority is not leaving the EU.
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916

    Everyone who posts on here should be making a public prediction of the result. Having done a bands one last week, here's my final seat count one:

    Cons 290
    Labour 254
    Lib Dems 27
    SNP 55
    NI 18
    Green 1
    UKIP 3
    Respect 1
    Speaker

    However, to hedge a little: I see more upside than downside for the Tories on their figure and more downside than upside for Labour on theirs. I may be slightly underplaying the SNP total too.

    For completeness how many for PC?
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,509

    Ishmael_X said:

    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    My Jacobite equivalent of M, the head of MI5 - JISM (Jacobite Intelligence Services Mastermind) advises me the short break in PB reception this morning was caused by the vast number of my ARSE adherents trying to access PB before its final incarnation in its normal form at 9:00am this morning.

    Be patient my followers, the ARSE will be revealed in its full splendour very shortly.

    Presumptuous, I know, but .... what exactly is the ARSE ?
    and lastly I apply the ARSE filter.

    that last sentence sounds suspiciously like "lastly I just make it up"
    By their fruits ye shall know them, and unless you have changed identities you were not around to savour the spot-on accuracy of Jack's delectable ARSEfruit in 2010. Research his track record, and post your own counter-predictions if you dare (you daren't), but don't make accusations like that.
    I was around then, although not posting.

    Getting something right previously doesn't automatically make you right next time, my wife picked the winner in the Grand National but she knows bugger all about horses. He's just admitted he makes it up (everyone knew this anyway). That's fine, gut feel and read of mood are important tools, but it's not scientific at all.

    If you want a prediction, here's mine

    Cons 281
    Lib Dems 25
    Labour 271
    SNP 51
    NI 18
    Green 1
    UKIP 1
    Respect 1
    Speaker 1

    It's based on polling / economic indicators / tarot cards
    Better than being based on bulls***
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,477
    edited May 2015

    Ishmael_X said:

    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    My Jacobite equivalent of M, the head of MI5 - JISM (Jacobite Intelligence Services Mastermind) advises me the short break in PB reception this morning was caused by the vast number of my ARSE adherents trying to access PB before its final incarnation in its normal form at 9:00am this morning.

    Be patient my followers, the ARSE will be revealed in its full splendour very shortly.

    Presumptuous, I know, but .... what exactly is the ARSE ?
    and lastly I apply the ARSE filter.

    that last sentence sounds suspiciously like "lastly I just make it up"
    By their fruits ye shall know them, and unless you have changed identities you were not around to savour the spot-on accuracy of Jack's delectable ARSEfruit in 2010. Research his track record, and post your own counter-predictions if you dare (you daren't), but don't make accusations like that.
    I was around then, although not posting.

    Getting something right previously doesn't automatically make you right next time, my wife picked the winner in the Grand National but she knows bugger all about horses. He's just admitted he makes it up (everyone knew this anyway). That's fine, gut feel and read of mood are important tools, but it's not scientific at all.

    If you want a prediction, here's mine

    Cons 281
    Lib Dems 25
    Labour 271
    SNP 51
    NI 18
    Green 1
    UKIP 1
    Respect 1
    Speaker 1

    It's based on polling / economic indicators / tarot cards
    Jack has a long and distinguished career as a PB Punter. He gets it wrong sometimes - don\t we all? - and it looks like this will be one of his less successful elections, but his reputation will be dented, not ruined.

    My own will suffer from a few faux pas. I didn't see the SNP surge coming and I thought there would be one more UKIP defection before the big day. Despite these errors, I should emerge unscathed and may even make a few shekels.

    It would be nice if we could have a thread devoted to mea culpas from all us punters who got it wrong, to greater or lesser degrees. It would be nice to hear from, for example, all those who predicted January as the month of Crossover, and February as the month of pulling away. And if Ed Is Crap is not PM on May 8th (it's barely evens now), I do hope Big John Owls will be big enough to apologise for wearying us with the dreadful acronym with which he is now eternally associated.

    And perhaps we could have a Stuart Truth Award for the poster who having having got it utterly wrong is never heard from again.
  • GeoffHGeoffH Posts: 56
    DavidL said:

    OllyT said:

    DavidL said:

    Aunderestimated both of the main parties fairly equally and therefore got the gap between them very close. This should indeed cause those who have convinced themselves that the phone poll are not only more in line with their own desires but clearly preferable to pause.

    And then, in my opinion, move on again. My biggest concern about Yougov this time around is that in many ways they are victims of their own success. Last time they had a large and new enough panel to be broadly representative which had not been exhausted by daily polling month after month after month.

    We have had posters on here who have said that they have completed 3 or even 6 polls recently. One admires the perseverance of such posters whose political geekism marks them out as being in no way typical of the average Brit. We have also seen disproportionate numbers watching the debates and generally having an awareness that an election is on. I fear that their panel has become dominated by political partisans who will not change their position no matter what resulting in almost no movement.

    The results are only 2 days away but I am fairly sure that they will show that this persistent tie (within MoE) that Yougov have given us for weeks now is not accurate. I expect the Tories to get the most votes. Whether this will be by enough to give them the most seats is harder to call. The answer would clearly have been no but for Scotland but now I expect it to be really close which makes the 80% probability on Betfair and the 25 seat lead on SPIN look out of line to me.

    Could it be argued that using a fixed panel might be better at detecting movement /switches than phone polls that use an entirely different set of respondents each time? I don't know but we don't have long to wait to find out.

    I am interested to see whether the final batch of phone polls show as big a difference to the onlines as last week, starting today, I believe, with Lord A who had a Tory lead of 6% and Labour on 29% from memory, last week.
    Not if the people on that panel have been winnowed down to a hard core of activists who will never change their minds in a month of Sundays, let alone from one day to the next.
    As the one who declared to having been polled six times by YouGov, I can say that for myself I answered ever more assuredly for the position I held at the beginning and wonder if the rest do the same. If so, then this is not a method designed to detect changes in opinion.

    As for another poster attributing my six times participation to 'political geekiness' I can only say that along with all the other non-political surveys from YouGov, I regard it as a way of picking up a little pocket money every now and then for only a few minutes effort.

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    @antifrank - that represents c.50 Labour gains from the Conservatives. That's quite bullish and more so than what Ashcroft shows.

    That said, given your intelligence and experience, your prediction is not one anyone should dismiss. JackW/Curtice v. OGH/Antifrank.

    Egg-on-face award to be awarded this Friday afternoon!

    This election is hugely uncertain. I certainly don't rule JackW's prediction out of court by any means.
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    Pulpstar said:

    Morning all, interesting polling day to come.

    Morning 'pouter !

    Big day for Basil ?
    Just mentioned something about jumping off a bridge. Hope hasn't had wind of a bad Tory poll. Getting a bit worried about him really, keeps waking up from nightmares in the middle of the night screaming "Crosby, where's that fecking swing back ?".
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006
    Millsy said:

    It will be interesting whether the phone polls today and tomorrow move into line with the online polls or stay (mostly) in favour of the Tories.

    Agreed, for me it is not the fact that the two methods lean in different methods it is the size of the leads. First up I think is Lord A which had a 6% Tory lead a week ago. That is getting into overall Tory majority territory. I am not convinced that the volatility in Lord A's polls accurately reflects what is going on - the daily YouGov might be boring but moving around by a point here and there feels more right to me, I don't think the campaign has thrown up any real game changers. Lord A may be right and we are in for another 1992. We shall soon know.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780
    My Prediction:
    Cons 280
    Labour 279
    Lib Dems 17
    SNP 50
    NI 18
    Green 1
    UKIP 3
    Respect 1
    Speake
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Is that money going away from UKIP and SNP in SPIN ?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417
    http://electionsetc.com/

    Stephen Fisher !
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Pulpstar said:

    surbiton said:

    timmo said:

    It was reporeted at the weekend that CCHQ have ordered candidates not in 40/40 seats to descend on those seats over the next 72 hours and abandon their respective constituencies. One PPC affected by this told me that CCHQ were deluded in thinking that all these other no hope seats had "Panzer divisions" that they could move across to these 40/40 seats when the reality is that these divisions of Tanks do not exist.
    This one candidate told CCHQ to go and take a running jump..didnt go down too well i gather..

    What is a 40/40 seat ?
    Con 40 Holds; Con 40 Gains.

    I live in one of the gains, NE Derbyshire !

    Is it one of the 23 gains for a majority?
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Ishmael_X said:

    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    My Jacobite equivalent of M, the head of MI5 - JISM (Jacobite Intelligence Services Mastermind) advises me the short break in PB reception this morning was caused by the vast number of my ARSE adherents trying to access PB before its final incarnation in its normal form at 9:00am this morning.

    Be patient my followers, the ARSE will be revealed in its full splendour very shortly.

    Presumptuous, I know, but .... what exactly is the ARSE ?
    and lastly I apply the ARSE filter.

    that last sentence sounds suspiciously like "lastly I just make it up"
    By their fruits ye shall know them, and unless you have changed identities you were not around to savour the spot-on accuracy of Jack's delectable ARSEfruit in 2010. Research his track record, and post your own counter-predictions if you dare (you daren't), but don't make accusations like that.
    I was around then, although not posting.

    Getting something right previously doesn't automatically make you right next time, my wife picked the winner in the Grand National but she knows bugger all about horses. He's just admitted he makes it up (everyone knew this anyway). That's fine, gut feel and read of mood are important tools, but it's not scientific at all.

    If you want a prediction, here's mine

    Cons 281
    Lib Dems 25
    Labour 271
    SNP 51
    NI 18
    Green 1
    UKIP 1
    Respect 1
    Speaker 1

    It's based on polling / economic indicators / tarot cards
    Jack has a long and distinguished career as a PB Punter. He gets it wrong sometimes - don\t we all? - and it looks like this will be one of his less successful elections, but his reputation will be dented, not ruined.

    My own will suffer from a few faux pas. I didn't see the SNP surge coming and I thought there would be one more UKIP defection before the bog day. Despite these errors, I should emerge unscathed and may even make a few shekels.

    It would be nice if we could have a thread devoted to mea culpas from all us punters who got it wrong, to greater or lesser degrees. It would be nice to hear from, for example, from all those who predicted January as the month of Crossover, and February as the month of pulling away. And if Ed Is Crap is not PM on May 8th (it's barely evens now), I do hope Big John Owls will be big enough to apologise for wearying us with his the dreadful acronym with which he is now eternally associated.

    And perhaps we could have a Stuart Truth Award for the poster who having having got it utterly wrong is never heard from again.
    I will not bet my mortgage on Jack W's ARSE !
  • franklynfranklyn Posts: 322
    I think that the world will be a brighter place if Easterross was back on this site
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417

    Pulpstar said:

    surbiton said:

    timmo said:

    It was reporeted at the weekend that CCHQ have ordered candidates not in 40/40 seats to descend on those seats over the next 72 hours and abandon their respective constituencies. One PPC affected by this told me that CCHQ were deluded in thinking that all these other no hope seats had "Panzer divisions" that they could move across to these 40/40 seats when the reality is that these divisions of Tanks do not exist.
    This one candidate told CCHQ to go and take a running jump..didnt go down too well i gather..

    What is a 40/40 seat ?
    Con 40 Holds; Con 40 Gains.

    I live in one of the gains, NE Derbyshire !

    Is it one of the 23 gains for a majority?
    Con Maj nailed on if the Germans lose NE Derbyshire.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417
    surbiton said:



    I will not bet my mortgage on Jack W's ARSE !

    Dundee East @ 1-100 is a decent mortgage bet.

    Incumbency, surge, "Yes" vote, nearest challenger going backwards etc etc.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,780

    Pulpstar said:

    Morning all, interesting polling day to come.

    Morning 'pouter !

    Big day for Basil ?
    Just mentioned something about jumping off a bridge. Hope hasn't had wind of a bad Tory poll. Getting a bit worried about him really, keeps waking up from nightmares in the middle of the night screaming "Crosby, where's that fecking swing back ?".
    Remember those days of labour 40+.... not many can.
  • Ishmael_X said:

    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    My Jacobite equivalent of M, the head of MI5 - JISM (Jacobite Intelligence Services Mastermind) advises me the short break in PB reception this morning was caused by the vast number of my ARSE adherents trying to access PB before its final incarnation in its normal form at 9:00am this morning.

    Be patient my followers, the ARSE will be revealed in its full splendour very shortly.

    Presumptuous, I know, but .... what exactly is the ARSE ?
    and lastly I apply the ARSE filter.

    that last sentence sounds suspiciously like "lastly I just make it up"
    By their fruits ye shall know them, and unless you have changed identities you were not around to savour the spot-on accuracy of Jack's delectable ARSEfruit in 2010. Research his track record, and post your own counter-predictions if you dare (you daren't), but don't make accusations like that.
    Does anyone have a record of the final ARSE projection for GE2010?

    The comments from that time no longer exist, unless saved in an internet archive somewhere. My recollection was that the ARSE forecast a very large number of Liberal Democrat gains, but my memory is not the most reliable and I would like to see the actual figures.
    Jack's ARSE was quite friendly towards the yellow peril before GE2010.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,516
    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    malcolmg said:

    Charles said:

    malcolmg said:

    fitalass said:

    I wasn't around when it happened, but I believe it was because Easterross criticised OGH and John Curtice in a thread. I doubt my post on this subject will last the duration of this thread. But I feel pretty strongly about a decision like this on a site that allowed some pretty strong and prolonged abuse to some regular posters to go unchecked for years while being extremely thin skinned about any criticism of their own opinions. And especially after they have on more than one occasion tried to undermine particular posters like Easterross. At the end of the day, who has contributed more to the site on a regular basis, Easteross or MalcolmG?

    fitalass said:

    FPT. "franklyn Posts: 31
    May 4
    We haven't heard from Easteross for a while; would value his latest insights"

    Sadly, Easteross was banned from PB.com a wee while ago, some castigate him for a Scots Tory surge that didn't happen while totally ignoring fact that he got it right on Libdem seat drop at last GE. But you can still contact him via twitter @M Sutherland-Fisher to get his 2015 GE predictions.

    Banned for what? I don't remember Easteross as a particularly abrasive poster or one that got into huge spats with anybody.
    Away you useless Tory halfwit , you would not recognise a contribution if it slapped you on the face. Keep your personal hatred of me out of it you whinging halfwit, stick to talking mince about Tory surges.
    Moderators

    This is uncalled for and should be deleted.

    Away you big jessie, go abuse your servants
    Politeness costs nothing.
    Somebody should remind our PM of that the next time he calls someone a fruitcake, it might save him some votes.
    Given that he's apologised for an insult that was 9 years ago (and - at the time - was arguably true) some might think it polite to forgive and forget
    Except of course he didn't. I distinctly remember him in a recent TV interview ( 2012) being given the chance to renove the remark and pointedly failing to do so.

    At the time I thought not only was it bad politics but it made him seem a lesser man. As you say politeness costs nothing.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    Pulpstar said:

    Pulpstar said:

    surbiton said:

    timmo said:

    It was reporeted at the weekend that CCHQ have ordered candidates not in 40/40 seats to descend on those seats over the next 72 hours and abandon their respective constituencies. One PPC affected by this told me that CCHQ were deluded in thinking that all these other no hope seats had "Panzer divisions" that they could move across to these 40/40 seats when the reality is that these divisions of Tanks do not exist.
    This one candidate told CCHQ to go and take a running jump..didnt go down too well i gather..

    What is a 40/40 seat ?
    Con 40 Holds; Con 40 Gains.

    I live in one of the gains, NE Derbyshire !

    Is it one of the 23 gains for a majority?
    Con Maj nailed on if the Germans lose NE Derbyshire.
    Whats your latest seat prediction.

    Always thought your model was close to this one

    http://electionforecast.co.uk/
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006
    DavidL said:

    OllyT said:

    DavidL said:

    Although, as pointed out down thread, these results were not particularly accurate when compared to the GB figures Mike is right that Yougov underestimated both of the main parties fairly equally and therefore got the gap between them very close. This should indeed cause those who have convinced themselves that the phone poll are not only more in line with their own desires but clearly preferable to pause.

    And then, in my opinion, move on again. My biggest concern about Yougov this time around is that in many ways they are victims of their own success. Last time they had a large and new enough panel to be broadly representative which had not been exhausted by daily polling month after month after month.

    We have had posters on here who have said that they have completed 3 or even 6 polls recently. One admires the perseverance of such posters whose political geekism marks them out as being in no way typical of the average Brit. We have also seen disproportionate numbers watching the debates and generally having an awareness that an election is on. I fear that their panel has become dominated by political partisans who will not change their position no matter what resulting in almost no movement.

    The results are only 2 days away but I am fairly sure that they will show that this persistent tie (within MoE) that Yougov have given us for weeks now is not accurate. I expect the Tories to get the most votes. Whether this will be by enough to give them the most seats is harder to call. The answer would clearly have been no but for Scotland but now I expect it to be really close which makes the 80% probability on Betfair and the 25 seat lead on SPIN look out of line to me.

    Could it be argued that using a fixed panel might be better at detecting movement /switches than phone polls that use an entirely different set of respondents each time? I don't know but we don't have long to wait to find out.

    I am interested to see whether the final batch of phone polls show as big a difference to the onlines as last week, starting today, I believe, with Lord A who had a Tory lead of 6% and Labour on 29% from memory, last week.
    Not if the people on that panel have been winnowed down to a hard core of activists who will never change their minds in a month of Sundays, let alone from one day to the next.
    You could right, out of interest, are you convinced Lord A's phone poll with the 6% lead & Labour on 29% was more accurate than YouGov's online?
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Given the anecdotals last night I was going to have a tenner for a laugh on Sadiq Kahn getting beat on a long shot.

    Some long shot. 11/2 seems to be the best price on the tories.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    edited May 2015
    Barnesian said:

    When I have to make a choice between similar things, perhaps in a supermarket, and I can't make my mind up, I tend to choose the item with a familiar name. I guess that is the basis of branding.

    If I'm a "don't know" or "not sure" and I'm standing in a polling station, pencil in hand, I may tend to go for a familiar name.

    This may be the basis of the "incumbency" effect. It is not really incumbency; it is familiarity. It may benefit familiar names such as Farage and Salmond (and Palmer?) who are not incumbents.

    The familiarity effect on the "don't knows" and "not sures" (i.e. the swing voters) may also produce a bias back to the status quo (swing back?).

    Obviously if you are familiar with a name but detest them you are not going to vote for them. The familiarity effect only works if you are unsure who to vote for and have no strong views on the candidates.

    I'm suspicious of relying on statistical features that don't also have a credible mechanism to explain them.

    There's plenty to explain incumbency: They've just spent five years helping people out, speaking up for the area in parliament, bringing home pork, getting coverage in the local press...

    Obviously it won't always apply if you already have a strong partisan affiliation, but a lot of people don't, and even the ones who do can sometimes be swung by a personal connection.

    What's harder to say is whether this also applies to former incumbents, where it gets quite hard to unpick, especially as it's less of a given that people will run again, so there's more scope for selection bias.
  • franklynfranklyn Posts: 322
    One factor which may or not play a role on Thursday. In many places there are local elections as well; how many people will use their "plague on all their houses" vote in the locals (Green, UKIP, independent, etc) in the local but make the ultimate choice in the general election.

    Where I live we are electing out (executive) mayor, who will earn a higher salary than our MP and who will probably have a greater impact on our everyday lives. We also have elections for the borough council, and the parish council, and a referendum, so five ballot papers, and four different methods of voting, so plenty of scope for (accidentally) spoiled votes, which may be critical in the highly marginal constituency
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,656
    I just checked the "User" tab and Socrates is not currently banned (although Easterross is). I suspect he was sin binned, and chose not to come back.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    YouGov have some new polling on this

    https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/595513483212431360/photo/1

    My thoughts precisely. I don't know quite what Out are playing at.

    If they want to win in 2017, they need to be forming a cross-party group *now* with a clear post-EU goal, and campaign relentlessly for it for the next two years.

    Otherwise In will win. Comfortably. I'd say 60-40.

    (PS. The plus side of a strong Out campaign, even for pro-EU reformers, is that such pressure would probably put even more steel into the EU-UK government negotiations, as they realised Out was a perfectly credible and possible outcome)

    Absolutely, I've been saying this for years. If UKIP and other Out supporters were actually serious about wanting us to leave the EU, they'd have recommended their supporters to vote Conservative to get the referendum, reformed themselves as the Out campaign, and spent the last couple of years building up a really solid political, economic and practical case, taking full advantage of people like Dan Hannan.

    Instead the Kippers are playing at immigration-politics, working to put Ed Miliband into No 10, and making a referendum as unlikely as they can. That's their prerogative, of course, but their actions demonstrate conclusively that their priority is not leaving the EU.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,516
    Pulpstar said:

    The breakdown of NI "18" could be important.

    I think the DUP will get 9 at a canter and possibly 10.

    The SDLP in particular has seemed anecdotally weak and could ship a seat to Sinn Fein and 1 to the DUP.

    They could also take Hermon's seat. Last time she stood unopposed by the DUP, this time she may not be such a shoo in.
  • DanielDaniel Posts: 160
    My forecast.

    Con 279
    Lab 269
    LD 26
    SNP 51
    UKIP 2
    Green 1
    Other 22
  • agingjbagingjb Posts: 76
    In better days OGH was much more critical of aggressive posters. He said no obscenities, even disguised by asterisks. Now, more than ever, PB stands for Partisan Bile.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,978
    @Survation: We'll have NEW polls EVERY DAY until #GE2015 & after, FOLLOW for updates & JOIN our press list for relevant tables: http://t.co/DKJOzF1mr0
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    My Prediction... >

    Cons 293
    Labour 270
    Lib Dems 17
    SNP 47
    NI 18
    Green 1
    UKIP 2
    Respect 1

    and the Speaker.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,656
    edited May 2015
    My forecast:
    Con	311
    Labour 248
    LibDem 18
    UKIP 2
    SNP 47
    PC 3
    NI 18
    Respect 1
    Green 1
    This will be a bad night for OGH's bank balance.


  • ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    Dunno if anyone has already posted this from Tim Shippers:

    'Crucially for the Conservatives 50% of voters now say the government is managing the economy well, a mark it has not hit since June 2010. A YouGov poll for the Sun on Sunday also finds that 49% of voters now make the economy their top election issue — up 10 points since January – ahead of the NHS and immigration."
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672
    edited May 2015
    Financier said:

    Everyone who posts on here should be making a public prediction of the result. Having done a bands one last week, here's my final seat count one:

    Cons 290
    Labour 254
    Lib Dems 27
    SNP 55
    NI 18
    Green 1
    UKIP 3
    Respect 1
    Speaker

    However, to hedge a little: I see more upside than downside for the Tories on their figure and more downside than upside for Labour on theirs. I may be slightly underplaying the SNP total too.

    For completeness how many for PC?

    Completely forgot about them. They'll get three, which means shaving three more from Labour. So:

    Cons 290
    Labour 251
    Lib Dems 27
    SNP 55
    NI 18
    Green 1
    PC 3
    UKIP 3
    Respect 1
    Speaker

  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,509

    Charles said:

    Charles said:

    malcolmg said:

    Charles said:

    malcolmg said:

    fitalass said:

    I wasn't around when it happened, but I believe it was because Easterross criticised OGH and John Curtice in a thread. I doubt my post on this subject will last the duration of this thread. But I feel pretty strongly about a decision like this on a site that allowed some pretty strong and prolonged abuse to some regular posters to go unchecked for years while being extremely thin skinned about any criticism of their own opinions. And especially after they have on more than one occasion tried to undermine particular posters like Easterross. At the end of the day, who has contributed more to the site on a regular basis, Easteross or MalcolmG?

    fitalass said:

    FPT. "franklyn Posts: 31
    May 4
    We haven't heard from Easteross for a while; would value his latest insights"

    Sadly, Easteross was banned from PB.com a wee while ago, some castigate him for a Scots Tory surge that didn't happen while totally ignoring fact that he got it right on Libdem seat drop at last GE. But you can still contact him via twitter @M Sutherland-Fisher to get his 2015 GE predictions.

    Banned for what? I don't remember Easteross as a particularly abrasive poster or one that got into huge spats with anybody.
    Away you useless Tory halfwit , you would not recognise a contribution if it slapped you on the face. Keep your personal hatred of me out of it you whinging halfwit, stick to talking mince about Tory surges.
    Moderators

    This is uncalled for and should be deleted.

    Away you big jessie, go abuse your servants
    Politeness costs nothing.
    Somebody should remind our PM of that the next time he calls someone a fruitcake, it might save him some votes.
    Given that he's apologised for an insult that was 9 years ago (and - at the time - was arguably true) some might think it polite to forgive and forget
    Except of course he didn't. I distinctly remember him in a recent TV interview ( 2012) being given the chance to renove the remark and pointedly failing to do so.

    At the time I thought not only was it bad politics but it made him seem a lesser man. As you say politeness costs nothing.
    You can be rude if you are a Tory toff though Alan, that is different.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    UKIP (@UKIP)
    05/05/2015 09:50
    Just in case you somehow managed to miss our #UKIP advert in the @Telegraph today - #VoteUKIP pic.twitter.com/uIQjbqVmaR
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    The latest ARSE for GE2010 that I can find was released on 27th April 2010, and constituted:

    "Con 250 seats .. Lab 236.. LibDem 128 .. Others 36.

    Hung Parliament - Conservatives Short by 76 seats."


    Can anyone provide a later ARSE?
  • antifrank said:

    Pulpstar said:

    antifrank said:

    It looks like almost all of pb.coms venerable sages now have the Tories in a fairly tight 20 seat band from 284 to 304 seats.

    Big difference between the former and the latter, though, in terms of governance.

    JackWs prediction gives an overall majority of 14 - I'd expect that to last 2-3 years because I am convinced there will be up to a further half-a-dozen UKIP defections from the Tories in the next parliament.

    Given the closeness of the polls, and the rise of UKIP, the crash of the Lib Dems and the vertiginous ascent of the SNP over the last five years, there is a high chance that the consensus is quite wrong.
    Going to make a prediction :) ?
    It's very tempting to say "no". :)

    Given the relatively low vote shares that many seats will be won with, this election may well still be capable of being won and lost quite convincingly by either of the main parties.

    But what the heck. If you force me to, I'm going to go with the following, reflecting what seems to be the superior Labour ground game in England and Wales:

    Labour: 280
    Conservative: 266
    SNP: 54
    Lib Dem: 21
    UKIP 4
    Plaid Cymru: 4
    Greens: 1
    Respect: 1
    Speaker: 1
    Norn Iron: 18

    Labour minority government with passive support (probably not amounting to confidence and supply) from the Lib Dems.

    But my betting is based over a much wider range of outcomes than this.
    WOW! ..... well there's brave and very much at odds with the predictions from both Richard Nabavi and JackW to name but two of PB's best political brains.
    If you're right, or even close, then those odds from Betfair's Exchange of almost 6.0 on Labour Most Seats must represent the value bet of all time ....... hanging there like an over-ripe plum, just begging to be picked.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,706
    edited May 2015
    My best guess is essentially a no change election, with a weaker LD-Con govt as the outcome. Probably not a formal coalition.

    30-40 seat Lab-Con swing offset by similar LD/SNP moves. A few more SLAB/LD hang on with micro majorities than expected.

    But really could easily be completely different.

    Cons 295 (-11)
    Labour 270 (+12)
    Lib Dems 20 (-35)
    SNP 40 (+ 34)
    UKIP 2 (+2)

    Green 0 (-1)
    Respect 0 (-1)

    Outcome Tory-LD arrangement, with UKIP/NI supporting/abstaining.



  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417
    I've gone for Conservative 0 in Torbay on the election game, Kevin Foster to win a coinflip with Sanders.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,968
    Mr. 1000, whilst I'd like that result I think you're overestimating the Conservatives and underestimating Labour (especially if they retain around 10 Scottish seats, which your SNP total implies).

    Obviously, F1's my main area of interest, so I suspect my guesses will be less well-informed than most others here. But, for what it's worth:

    Con 289
    Lab 255
    SNP 56
    Lib Dems 24
    UKIP 3
    Plaid Cymru 3
    Green 1
    NI 18
    Speaker 1
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,712
    rcs1000 said:

    My forecast:

    Con	311
    Labour 248
    LibDem 18
    UKIP 2
    SNP 47
    PC 3
    NI 18
    Respect 1
    Green 1
    This will be a bad night for OGH's bank balance.


    Do you and Dad argue about this over the dinner table?!
  • acf2310acf2310 Posts: 141

    @Survation: We'll have NEW polls EVERY DAY until #GE2015 & after, FOLLOW for updates & JOIN our press list for relevant tables: http://t.co/DKJOzF1mr0

    Oh God, does this mean Survation will also be polling daily for GE 2020?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,712
    rcs1000 said:

    I just checked the "User" tab and Socrates is not currently banned (although Easterross is). I suspect he was sin binned, and chose not to come back.

    Thanks.

    Socrates: if you're reading this, please come back. Your presence is sorely missed!
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708
    acf2310 said:

    @Survation: We'll have NEW polls EVERY DAY until #GE2015 & after, FOLLOW for updates & JOIN our press list for relevant tables: http://t.co/DKJOzF1mr0

    Oh God, does this mean Survation will also be polling daily for GE 2020?
    Maybe they just mean until GE-2015-2
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672
    I got the last US presidential election horribly wrong and the Scottish referendum happily wrong. I am, therefore, seen as a crap tipster. But I did call it early for Boris in 2008 and got the hung Parliament result right for 2010 eventually, having initially tipped the Tories. I also called it for a hung parliament in 2015 back in the summer of 2010. And I said EdM would win the Labour leadership and that he would be crap. And on top of all that, I predicted a UKIP surge in Eastern England for the Euro elections long before anyone else.

    But you are only ever remembered for being spectacularly right or wrong on here. And I have been vociferously and spectacularly wrong twice. I am confident, though, that I will come close to redemption on Friday.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    roadto326 ‏@roadto326 16m16 minutes ago
    The awkward fact remains for the Tories that their most recent good sized lead with MORI looks more like a rogue every day.

    Until todays LARGER?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417
    taffys said:

    Given the anecdotals last night I was going to have a tenner for a laugh on Sadiq Kahn getting beat on a long shot.

    Some long shot. 11/2 seems to be the best price on the tories.

    Taffys are you going to have a tenner against Khan ?

    If so you should be able to find better than 11-2.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,712
    Stephen Fisher's latest prediction is almost identical to mine.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    If so you should be able to find better than 11-2.

    Hills and PP both that!
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,328

    Todays BJESUS (maybe final one depending on WIFI n Devon)

    5.5.15 LAB 287 (288) CON 272(272) LD 29(29) UKIP 3(2) Others 59(59) (Ed is crap is PM)
    Last weeks BJESUS in brackets
    BJESUS (Big John Election Service Uniform Swing) BJESUS (Big John Election Service Uniform Swing)
    Using current polling adjusted for 2 days left to go factor and using UKPR standard swingometer

    BJO. I haven't a clue what the result is going to be, but if you're wrong you probably know you're likely to get dog's abuse from some posters. If that happens, I would urge you to continue posting. I value your insights and it is really important to have some dissenting voices in the face of the tory majority on this site.
    Been getting Dogs abuse since became a regular poster last June.

    I am going nowhere whatever the result but thanks for your comments.
    BJO: I too value your contributions and those of other Labour supporting posters. I think it good to be challenged. Not much point just talking to those who agree with you.

    Also, if EdM does become PM - which still looks likely - you will have to stop calling him Crap. Always silly to underestimate one's opponents, which I think has been one of the Tories' failings.

    Lots of second and third rate people make it to the top of organisations, as I can attest. They may be utterly useless in most things that matter but they are good at one thing i.e. getting to the top.

    And a politician without power is a bit like a eunuch in a brothel. Utterly pointless.

  • AllyPally_RobAllyPally_Rob Posts: 605
    edited May 2015
    Okay Prediction Time:

    Con: 275
    Lab: 275
    LD: 25
    SNP: 50
    UKIP: 2
    Green: 1
    Other: 22

    That'll make for an interesting morning on Friday...

    Fyi, I was in the top 10 predictions for the Scottish Referendum as i recall ;)
  • rcs1000 said:

    My forecast:

    Con	311
    Labour 248
    LibDem 18
    UKIP 2
    SNP 47
    PC 3
    NI 18
    Respect 1
    Green 1
    This will be a bad night for OGH's bank balance.


    You ain't kidding!!! If Mike has any faith in his son's forecasting skills, he'd be closing his spread betting position(s) right now.
    The huge difference between Smithson Junior's forecast and that of antifrank is even more extreme than that between JackW and OGH!
    Reputations stand to be made on the one hand and crushed on the other.

    PB.com at its very best!
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    I say an amnesty for all banned posters!
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916
    Plato said:

    My Prediction... >

    Cons 293
    Labour 270
    Lib Dems 17
    SNP 47
    NI 18
    Green 1
    UKIP 2
    Respect 1

    and the Speaker.

    and PC?
  • VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,550
    My guess.

    Con 291
    Labour 246
    LibDem 35
    UKIP 4
    SNP 51
    PC 3
    NI 18
    Respect 1
    Green 1
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    antifrank said:

    Pulpstar said:

    antifrank said:

    It looks like almost all of pb.coms venerable sages now have the Tories in a fairly tight 20 seat band from 284 to 304 seats.

    Big difference between the former and the latter, though, in terms of governance.

    JackWs prediction gives an overall majority of 14 - I'd expect that to last 2-3 years because I am convinced there will be up to a further half-a-dozen UKIP defections from the Tories in the next parliament.

    Given the closeness of the polls, and the rise of UKIP, the crash of the Lib Dems and the vertiginous ascent of the SNP over the last five years, there is a high chance that the consensus is quite wrong.
    Going to make a prediction :) ?
    It's very tempting to say "no". :)

    Given the relatively low vote shares that many seats will be won with, this election may well still be capable of being won and lost quite convincingly by either of the main parties.

    But what the heck. If you force me to, I'm going to go with the following, reflecting what seems to be the superior Labour ground game in England and Wales:

    Labour: 280
    Conservative: 266
    SNP: 54
    Lib Dem: 21
    UKIP 4
    Plaid Cymru: 4
    Greens: 1
    Respect: 1
    Speaker: 1
    Norn Iron: 18

    Labour minority government with passive support (probably not amounting to confidence and supply) from the Lib Dems.

    But my betting is based over a much wider range of outcomes than this.
    WOW! ..... well there's brave and very much at odds with the predictions from both Richard Nabavi and JackW to name but two of PB's best political brains.
    If you're right, or even close, then those odds from Betfair's Exchange of almost 6.0 on Labour Most Seats must represent the value bet of all time ....... hanging there like an over-ripe plum, just begging to be picked.
    The mood music from both main parties in the press suggests that Labour are in trouble. But Labour always seem pessimistic and the Conservatives always seem optimistic. And no one can really say that they understand what the polling means with any honesty.

    I do regard the price on Labour Most Seats as absurd. This election is far more uncertain than most because of all the polling upheavals that have taken place in the last five years. The bellcurve of possible outcomes is much flatter than usual.

    Anyway, I will do just fine if I'm right or if JackW and Richard Nabavi are right. It will be a less happy night for me if either party gets an overall majority.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672
    franklyn said:

    One factor which may or not play a role on Thursday. In many places there are local elections as well; how many people will use their "plague on all their houses" vote in the locals (Green, UKIP, independent, etc) in the local but make the ultimate choice in the general election.

    Where I live we are electing out (executive) mayor, who will earn a higher salary than our MP and who will probably have a greater impact on our everyday lives. We also have elections for the borough council, and the parish council, and a referendum, so five ballot papers, and four different methods of voting, so plenty of scope for (accidentally) spoiled votes, which may be critical in the highly marginal constituency

    I am voting LibDem in the local elections. They have the best candidates by far.

  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    I have found the final ARSE for GE2010:

    "BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS

    The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to JNN the contents of the final ARSE Polling and Seat index.

    Con 35% .. Lab 27% .. LibDem 30% .. Others 8%

    The PISSED Jack W Seat Index with added SOAMES weighting shows :

    Con 305 seats .. Lab 220.. LibDem 90 .. Others 35.

    Hung Parliament - Conservatives Short by 21 seats.

    …………………………………………….

    MoE Party Percentage - 1 point either way.

    MoE Seat Allocation - 5 seats either way - 3 main parties

    …………………………………………………..

    Sources :

    WIND ….. Whimsical Independent News Division.
    JNN ………..Jacobite News Network.
    ARSE ….. Anonymous Random Selection of Electors.
    PISSED … Political Intelligence Seat Selector Election Determinator
    SOAMES …System Of Amending Measured Election Scores"
  • DixieDixie Posts: 1,221
    So the opinion polls disagree with each other, the betting markets disagree with the opinion polls and the people disagree with both! Labour circles are definitely taking the poor postal vote position as a problem (their words not mine, I know nothing). But perhaps, there are shy voters for all parties now!

    The news on the streets is that Labour hope Con/LD don't reach 326 and if they do then it is all over. If they don't and Lab/LD beats Con then they will form minority coalition (say with 295 seats). They believe that SNP would never side with Tories in opposition. Probably all fantasy.
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    Still hearing noises out of Twickenham that Cable could be in trouble..LibDems had to move an action day team on Saturday and Sunday over there to try and firm up his vote.
    The mansion tax isnt going down at all well in those expensive parts..
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417
    taffys said:

    If so you should be able to find better than 11-2.

    Hills and PP both that!

    Sorry but this is where people ship money hand over foot to the bookies, by refusing to click the Ladbrokes "9" out of some misguided principle that they won't bet on a bookie with a poor UI !
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,712
    timmo said:

    Still hearing noises out of Twickenham that Cable could be in trouble..LibDems had to move an action day team on Saturday and Sunday over there to try and firm up his vote.
    The mansion tax isnt going down at all well in those expensive parts..

    I think the LDs are in all sorts of trouble where they currently hold affluent middle-clas suburban/posh English seats facing Conservative challengers.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417
    timmo said:

    Still hearing noises out of Twickenham that Cable could be in trouble..LibDems had to move an action day team on Saturday and Sunday over there to try and firm up his vote.
    The mansion tax isnt going down at all well in those expensive parts..

    It'd be hilarious if Vince Cable is chucked out. OGH must reckon he's in a spot of bother or why would he have lent him his vote in what should be a safe LD seat.

    "Were you up for Cable"
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    edited May 2015
    ''This election is far more uncertain than most because of all the polling upheavals that have taken place in the last five years. ''

    If the outcome is uncertain then how come all the forecasts on here are pretty much in line, and the pollsters too. Everybody seems to want to avoid being embarrassed.

    My hunch is labour could drop to 220, maybe below that. Those marginals that are being handily pencilled by the bubble in to make up for Labour's Scottish meltdown?

    I don;t see labour getting any of them. Except maybe West Wirral.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    edited May 2015
    Talking of predictions, I should make clear that, like antifrank, I think quite a wide range of outcomes remain possible, and I've bet on that basis. I've been checking out my expected P+L against various outcomes. I have a computer model which allows me to estimate which bets will win/lose for various seat totals. For example, I can set assumptions for the total number of seats won by the SNP, LD and UKIP, and the model then generates a graph of expected net profit against the final Con seat total, based on assuming that constituencies fall in roughly the order specified by the odds.

    Looking at the results, I think I've overdone the 'wide range' bit: in all realistic scenarios my expected profit is almost unchanged from Lab just short of a majority, right up to Con landslide (if there's a Lab Majority the profit becomes huge). The main variable in my book is how well the SNP do.

    Time to take a few more last-minute risks, I think!
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469

    timmo said:

    Still hearing noises out of Twickenham that Cable could be in trouble..LibDems had to move an action day team on Saturday and Sunday over there to try and firm up his vote.
    The mansion tax isnt going down at all well in those expensive parts..

    I think the LDs are in all sorts of trouble where they currently hold affluent middle-clas suburban/posh English seats facing Conservative challengers.
    Wouldnt it be ironic after all the methodology from OGH if the LDs do substantially better where facing a Labour challenger and worse than expected where facing Tories.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    edited May 2015
    Bugger, forgot them -that explains why I was a few short and upped Labour by 3.

    PC on 3

    Cons 293
    Labour 270 267
    Lib Dems 17
    SNP 47
    NI 18
    Green 1
    UKIP 2
    Respect 1

    and the Speaker.
    Financier said:

    Plato said:

    My Prediction... >

    Cons 293
    Labour 270 267
    Lib Dems 17
    SNP 47
    NI 18
    Green 1
    UKIP 2
    Respect 1

    and the Speaker.

    and PC?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,712
    @OSE - I think almost all of us got the LDs / Labour split badly wrong in 2010. I know I did. JackW did very well on Tory seat totals, but I presume that was on the back of Labour gains rather than (as it turned out) several notable LD gains.

    This election hinges on the Tory defence in their top 50 marginals. I simply don't know how that'll turn out because I think so much depends on who actually turns out on the day.

    Most people I speak to are finding it hard to give a sh*t about this one. It truly is the "meh" election.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    "Were you up for Cable"

    If they are bricking it in Twickenham, they are bricking in all over London.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,328
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,968
    Mr. Taffys, I can't see that happening. Labour will do badly in Scotland and pretty well in Wales, but losing about 40 odd seats net means [more or less] making zero net gains in England.
  • Will there be a prediction thread/ competition??
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417

    Talking of predictions, I should make clear that, like antifrank, I think quite a wide range of outcomes remain possible, and I've bet on that basis. I've been checking out my expected P+L against various outcomes. I have a computer model which allows me to estimate which bets will win/lose for various seat totals. For example, I can set assumptions for the total number of seats won by the SNP, LD and UKIP, and the model then generates a graph of expected net profit against the final Con seat total, based on assuming that constituencies fall in roughly the order specified by the odds.

    Looking at the results, I think I've overdone the 'wide range' bit: in all realistic scenarios my expected profit is almost unchanged from Lab just short of a majority, right up to Con landslide (if there's a Lab Majority the profit becomes huge). The main variable in my book is how well the SNP do.

    Time to take a few more last-minute risks, I think!

    How does UKIP 20+ seats leave you ?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,712
    timmo said:

    timmo said:

    Still hearing noises out of Twickenham that Cable could be in trouble..LibDems had to move an action day team on Saturday and Sunday over there to try and firm up his vote.
    The mansion tax isnt going down at all well in those expensive parts..

    I think the LDs are in all sorts of trouble where they currently hold affluent middle-clas suburban/posh English seats facing Conservative challengers.
    Wouldnt it be ironic after all the methodology from OGH if the LDs do substantially better where facing a Labour challenger and worse than expected where facing Tories.
    Yes, it would.
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,323
    The clear possibility this will be a "super hung parliament" where no single two party coalition (other than Lab-Con) can command a majority.

    I still think though that Lab/SNP is (unfortunately) likely to be on, more so than Con/LD - simply because SNP 50 would mean Lab only needed a fairly pathetic 275 odd. That would be far from safe though.
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    My own prediction for this GE is that the SNP will come close to a clean sweep in Scotland. Labour will lose net seats, and may end up below 250. The Conservatives will lose net seats - just. The Liberal Democrats will end up with less than 30 seats.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    I'd stay up for Cable.
    timmo said:

    Still hearing noises out of Twickenham that Cable could be in trouble..LibDems had to move an action day team on Saturday and Sunday over there to try and firm up his vote.
    The mansion tax isnt going down at all well in those expensive parts..

This discussion has been closed.