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  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    @GuidoFawkes: .@LucyMPowell admits @Ed_Miliband could break his #EdStone promises: http://t.co/WpcT5tLJhs http://t.co/Q25kcy0LYC
  • Plato
    Plato Posts: 15,724
    LOL
    botanically_speaking said:

    Plato said:

    https://twitter.com/SkyNewsCamera/status/595520712451989504

    Anatomicals Sleep Balm AND Pro Plus?

    We're not going to be as wide awake as the tories, nor are we going to be as sleepy as Labour.
    More Goldilocks stuff from the LibDems?
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Vote UKIP to keep Labour out in Welwyn Hatfield.

    Pass the smelling salts.
  • Tissue_Price
    Tissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Slackbladder said:

    And Maidenhead? Did they pick a random list out of their backside?

    I understand the idea behind sneaking a few Tory targets into a list of e.g. Hartlepool, Rotherham etc.

    But starting with the Prime Minister's constituency is mental!
  • Neil
    Neil Posts: 7,983
    Pulpstar said:

    Neil said:

    dyedwoolie said:


    Greens to come close in Norwich South (have given it them above)

    That would be a very pleasant surprise. I havent canvassed in Norwich in years so I had presumed from the outside it would be a very tough ask the way local results were going. I'd be more than happy with retaining Brighton Pavilion and getting one or two 2nd places. Anything more would be a bonus.
    Greens to trounce the yellow peril in Sheffield Central I reckon.
    That's a big hope. It would be a very distant second place if it came off but right now we have no second places to work on so we'll take what's going.
  • logical_song
    logical_song Posts: 10,082
    Pulpstar said:

    Plato said:

    Errr.... Witney?

    https://twitter.com/johnmknox/status/595349493492666370

    Rofl Ipswich !
    Who produced this - it looks like a joke.
    Eastleigh and Portsmouth South - "Tories can't win here .... let Labour in"????
    LibDems or Tories will win or come second. Labour will be nowhere, but probably ahead of UKIP.
  • Grandiose
    Grandiose Posts: 2,323
    Pulpstar said:

    Plato said:

    Errr.... Witney?

    https://twitter.com/johnmknox/status/595349493492666370

    Rofl Ipswich !
    Have they literally made these up?
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Suddenly you can see how some Kippers think they might get 102 MPs.
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Can't see Labour winning the popular vote with Populus failing to give them a lead.
  • Neil
    Neil Posts: 7,983
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Suddenly you can see how some Kippers think they might get 102 MPs.

    I hope MikeK has suitably admonished the defeatists who think they can only win 102 seats.

  • Tissue_Price
    Tissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    AndyJS said:

    Can't see Labour winning the popular vote with Populus failing to give them a lead.

    Populus's methodology might be right.
  • dyedwoolie
    dyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Neil said:

    dyedwoolie said:


    Greens to come close in Norwich South (have given it them above)

    That would be a very pleasant surprise. I havent canvassed in Norwich in years so I had presumed from the outside it would be a very tough ask the way local results were going. I'd be more than happy with retaining Brighton Pavilion and getting one or two 2nd places. Anything more would be a bonus.
    It's close I've been generous in my prediction as my concern is the student vote will not turn out or isn't registered. Clear second place if not though.
  • Tissue_Price
    Tissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Neil said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Suddenly you can see how some Kippers think they might get 102 MPs.

    I hope MikeK has suitably admonished the defeatists who think they can only win 102 seats.

    We've been over this, it was a simple mishearing of "1 or 2".
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Neil said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Suddenly you can see how some Kippers think they might get 102 MPs.

    I hope MikeK has suitably admonished the defeatists who think they can only win 102 seats.

    One of the Bradford UKIP candidates reckons they'll get 180 MPs
  • Neil
    Neil Posts: 7,983
    Tissue_Price said:

    Neil said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Suddenly you can see how some Kippers think they might get 102 MPs.

    I hope MikeK has suitably admonished the defeatists who think they can only win 102 seats.

    We've been over this, it was a simple mishearing of "1 or 2".
    "1 or 2" hundred ... right?
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Neil said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Suddenly you can see how some Kippers think they might get 102 MPs.

    I hope MikeK has suitably admonished the defeatists who think they can only win 102 seats.

    When the exit poll sounds UKIP 50 - whatcha gonna do :D ?
  • Plato
    Plato Posts: 15,724
    Look at the retweets... perhaps its unknowing Kippers who simply don't see how weird some are.

    It's such a random selection.
    Grandiose said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Plato said:

    Errr.... Witney?

    https://twitter.com/johnmknox/status/595349493492666370

    Rofl Ipswich !
    Have they literally made these up?
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Neil said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Suddenly you can see how some Kippers think they might get 102 MPs.

    I hope MikeK has suitably admonished the defeatists who think they can only win 102 seats.

    One of the Bradford UKIP candidates reckons they'll get 180 MPs
    Is this the final Populus btw ?
  • Dair
    Dair Posts: 6,108
    Final prediction.

    Tory - 280
    Labour - 270
    SNP - 57
    LibDem - 15
    DUP - 8
    Plaid - 5
    Sinn Fein - 4
    Independent (inc Speaker) - 3
    Green - 3
    UKIP - 2
    Respect - 1
    Alliance - 1
    UUP - 1

    Taking a risk on Fermanagh and South Tyrone, Belfast East, Bristol West and Norwich South.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Pulpstar said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Neil said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Suddenly you can see how some Kippers think they might get 102 MPs.

    I hope MikeK has suitably admonished the defeatists who think they can only win 102 seats.

    One of the Bradford UKIP candidates reckons they'll get 180 MPs
    Is this the final Populus btw ?
    I don't know. I wouldn't be surprised if we saw one on Thursday morning.
  • Plato
    Plato Posts: 15,724
    Which seats aren't the SNP taking?
    Dair said:

    Final prediction.

    Tory - 280
    Labour - 270
    SNP - 57
    LibDem - 15
    DUP - 8
    Plaid - 5
    Sinn Fein - 4
    Independent (inc Speaker) - 3
    Green - 3
    UKIP - 2
    Respect - 1
    Alliance - 1
    UUP - 1

    Taking a risk on Fermanagh and South Tyrone, Belfast East, Bristol West and Norwich South.

  • Neil
    Neil Posts: 7,983
    dyedwoolie said:

    Neil said:

    dyedwoolie said:


    Greens to come close in Norwich South (have given it them above)

    That would be a very pleasant surprise. I havent canvassed in Norwich in years so I had presumed from the outside it would be a very tough ask the way local results were going. I'd be more than happy with retaining Brighton Pavilion and getting one or two 2nd places. Anything more would be a bonus.
    It's close I've been generous in my prediction as my concern is the student vote will not turn out or isn't registered. Clear second place if not though.
    Has bunnco opined on the likely result here yet? ;)

    Clear second would be a fine result.

  • Sean_F
    Sean_F Posts: 39,132
    AndyJS said:

    Can't see Labour winning the popular vote with Populus failing to give them a lead.

    On the face of it, to have two successive Populus polls putting the Conservatives level, is good news for the Tories, given that Populus have shown Labour ahead since August. But, it may be matched by the better polls for the Conservatives moving towards a tie as well.
  • Razedabode
    Razedabode Posts: 3,117
    Are we supposedly getting an ICM today?
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Dair said:

    Final prediction.

    Tory - 280
    Labour - 270
    SNP - 57
    LibDem - 15
    DUP - 8
    Plaid - 5
    Sinn Fein - 4
    Independent (inc Speaker) - 3
    Green - 3
    UKIP - 2
    Respect - 1
    Alliance - 1
    UUP - 1

    Taking a risk on Fermanagh and South Tyrone, Belfast East, Bristol West and Norwich South.

    Which is your Non SNP mainland seat ?
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    So we're all agreed. If UKIP don't get 102 MPs it has been a truly terrible night for UKIP and they should disband.
  • Sean_F
    Sean_F Posts: 39,132
    Pulpstar said:

    Neil said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Suddenly you can see how some Kippers think they might get 102 MPs.

    I hope MikeK has suitably admonished the defeatists who think they can only win 102 seats.

    When the exit poll sounds UKIP 50 - whatcha gonna do :D ?
    323, I reckon.
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    That UKIP (?) forecast makes Iain Dale look like an oracle.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    @Plato Orkney and Shetland, and 1 other.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Razedabode said:

    Are we supposedly getting an ICM today?

    I'm expecting it tomorrow.
  • Dair
    Dair Posts: 6,108
    Plato said:

    Which seats aren't the SNP taking?

    Dair said:

    Final prediction.

    Tory - 280
    Labour - 270
    SNP - 57
    LibDem - 15
    DUP - 8
    Plaid - 5
    Sinn Fein - 4
    Independent (inc Speaker) - 3
    Green - 3
    UKIP - 2
    Respect - 1
    Alliance - 1
    UUP - 1

    Taking a risk on Fermanagh and South Tyrone, Belfast East, Bristol West and Norwich South.

    I'm not specific on that. It will be any two from BRS, Edin South, East Ren and O&S
  • Dair
    Dair Posts: 6,108
    Pulpstar said:

    Dair said:

    Final prediction.

    Tory - 280
    Labour - 270
    SNP - 57
    LibDem - 15
    DUP - 8
    Plaid - 5
    Sinn Fein - 4
    Independent (inc Speaker) - 3
    Green - 3
    UKIP - 2
    Respect - 1
    Alliance - 1
    UUP - 1

    Taking a risk on Fermanagh and South Tyrone, Belfast East, Bristol West and Norwich South.

    Which is your Non SNP mainland seat ?
    I'm basing the prediction on all seats being in contention and a probabilistic outcome on two from four - East Ren, Edin South, O&S and BRS.
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,724
    "Coogan's about as socialist as Floyd Mayweather, only considerably less likeable" - Piers Morgan

    Alien vs Predator.
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    Sean_F said:

    AndyJS said:

    Can't see Labour winning the popular vote with Populus failing to give them a lead.

    On the face of it, to have two successive Populus polls putting the Conservatives level, is good news for the Tories, given that Populus have shown Labour ahead since August. But, it may be matched by the better polls for the Conservatives moving towards a tie as well.
    That's true.
  • acf2310
    acf2310 Posts: 141
    My prediction:

    Con 299
    Lab 253
    LD 21
    SNP 51
    UKIP 2
    PC 3
    Green 1
    Galloway 1
    Speaker 1
    NI 18

    Con + LD 320
    Lab + SNP + PC + Green 308

    Con / LD coalition with DUP support.

    Con: 302 + 18 gains from LD + 1 gain from UKIP + 1 gain of Portsmouth South + 1 'gain' of Kensington + 2 gains from Labour - 25 losses to Labour - 1 loss to UKIP = 299

    Lab: 256 + 8 gains from LD + 25 gains from Con + 1 'gain' of Blackburn - 2 losses to Con - 35 losses to SNP = 253

    LD: 56 - 18 losses to Con - 8 losses to Lab - 9 losses to SNP = 21

    SNP: 6 + 35 gains from Lab + 1 gain from Independent (Falkirk) 9 gains from LD = 51

    UKIP: 2 + 1 gain from Con - 1 loss to Con = 2

    NI 18, PC 3, Green 1, Respect 1, Speaker 1.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Sean_F said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Neil said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Suddenly you can see how some Kippers think they might get 102 MPs.

    I hope MikeK has suitably admonished the defeatists who think they can only win 102 seats.

    When the exit poll sounds UKIP 50 - whatcha gonna do :D ?
    323, I reckon.
    My bank manager won't be happy with that :D
  • Richard_Tyndall
    Richard_Tyndall Posts: 33,463
    Since people are being brave enough to make final predictions here are mine - or rather here are the numbers I put in for the excellent Election Game.

    Con 295
    Labour 256
    LibDem 16
    UKIP 6
    SNP 53
    PC 4
    NI 18
    Respect 1
    Green 0
    Speaker 1
  • philiph
    philiph Posts: 4,705
    OK Prediction time

    +/- 5
    Tory - 300
    Labour - 255

    +/- 3
    SNP - 53
    LibDem - 22

    +/- 1
    DUP - 8
    Plaid - 3
    Sinn Fein - 4
    Independent 1
    Green - 1
    UKIP - 4
    Respect - 1
    Alliance - 1
    UUP - 1

    +/- 0
    Speaker 1

    I can't see Labour below 250 or Tory above 305
    I can't see SNP below 50 or LibDem above 27

    All predicted with greater hope than expectation.
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    I have the SNP taking 50 seats, with the party missing out on the following:

    Lab: Kirkcaldy, Glasgow NE, Renfrewshire East, Edinburgh South, Aberdeen South, Rutherglen.
    LD: Orkney, Berwickshire.
    Con: Dumfriesshire.
  • Plato
    Plato Posts: 15,724
    Some lovely charts in here may2015.com/featured/a-history-of-every-general-election-since-1945-in-12-graphs/
  • acf2310
    acf2310 Posts: 141
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Since people are being brave enough to make final predictions here are mine - or rather here are the numbers I put in for the excellent Election Game.

    Con 295
    Labour 256
    LibDem 16
    UKIP 6
    SNP 53
    PC 4
    NI 18
    Respect 1
    Green 0
    Speaker 1

    Ooh, Green 0. Lab gain in Brighton?

  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    "Coogan's about as socialist as Floyd Mayweather, only considerably less likeable" - Piers Morgan

    Alien vs Predator.

    Floyd Mayweather is one of the greatest boxers of all time. He deserves his millions for having ungodly talent and dedication.
  • Plato
    Plato Posts: 15,724
    Is it too late to fill that in? If not, anyone got a linky?
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Since people are being brave enough to make final predictions here are mine - or rather here are the numbers I put in for the excellent Election Game.

    Con 295
    Labour 256
    LibDem 16
    UKIP 6
    SNP 53
    PC 4
    NI 18
    Respect 1
    Green 0
    Speaker 1

  • Grandiose
    Grandiose Posts: 2,323
    Plato said:

    Look at the retweets... perhaps its unknowing Kippers who simply don't see how weird some are.

    It's such a random selection.

    Grandiose said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Plato said:

    Errr.... Witney?

    https://twitter.com/johnmknox/status/595349493492666370

    Rofl Ipswich !
    Have they literally made these up?
    My first thought was that it was a list where UKIP would be the challenger to either Lab or the Tories. But Ipswich is surely a Con/Lab marginal on any forecast.
  • BannedInParis
    BannedInParis Posts: 2,191
    More on the Policy Obelisk

    “I don’t think anyone is suggesting that the fact that he’s carved them into stone means, you know, means that he will absolutely, you know, not going to break them or anything like that.”
  • Anorak
    Anorak Posts: 6,621
    Joining in the head/parapet antics:

    Con 285
    Labour 266
    LibDem 23
    UKIP 2
    SNP 50
    PC 3
    NI 18
    Respect 1
    Green 1
    Speaker 1
  • Richard_Nabavi
    Richard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Pulpstar said:

    When the exit poll sounds UKIP 50 - whatcha gonna do :D ?

    Buy on the spreads, of course!

    [Although in practice that won't be possible 'cos they'll be suspended]
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    acf2310 said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Since people are being brave enough to make final predictions here are mine - or rather here are the numbers I put in for the excellent Election Game.

    Con 295
    Labour 256
    LibDem 16
    UKIP 6
    SNP 53
    PC 4
    NI 18
    Respect 1
    Green 0
    Speaker 1

    Ooh, Green 0. Lab gain in Brighton?

    BOLD
  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    BannedInParis said:

    More on the Policy Obelisk

    “I don’t think anyone is suggesting that the fact that he’s carved them into stone means, you know, means that he will absolutely, you know, not going to break them or anything like that.”

    The gift that keeps on giving...

    Not the Edstone, Lucy Powell
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    Pulpstar said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    "Coogan's about as socialist as Floyd Mayweather, only considerably less likeable" - Piers Morgan

    Alien vs Predator.

    Floyd Mayweather is one of the greatest boxers of all time. He deserves his millions for having ungodly talent and dedication.
    Coogan is a fantastic character comedian, and a deeply troubled individual.
  • dyingswan
    dyingswan Posts: 189
    Don't forget that at this equivalent point in 2010 the LD soufflé had not popped. According to Ipsos Mori when they polled on Tuesday last time LD stood at 29pc. When they polled on Wednesday they had fallen to 23pc.Irecall the incredulity on election night when the exit poll confirmed the collapse. Three weeks of Cleggmania had conditioned people to expect a LD advance. Instead they fell back. I expect a last minute shift again as people finally focus on the choice. My feeling is that the Conservatives will top 300 seats and will lead the next government. When pollsters return to ask why the most cited answer will be Milibands statement on QT that Labour had not overspent.
  • Floater
    Floater Posts: 14,207
    YBarddCwsc said:

    If the ARSE is true, then Miliband will have resigned by next week and taken his limestone slab with him

    I can’t see even an indulgent Labour party interpreting a net loss of seats from Brown as going backwards.

    Re those pledges

    http://order-order.com/2015/05/05/lucy-powell-gaffe-miliband-might-break-edstone-promises/

    Which idiot appointed Lucy Powell?
  • Richard_Tyndall
    Richard_Tyndall Posts: 33,463
    Plato said:

    Is it too late to fill that in? If not, anyone got a linky?

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Since people are being brave enough to make final predictions here are mine - or rather here are the numbers I put in for the excellent Election Game.

    Con 295
    Labour 256
    LibDem 16
    UKIP 6
    SNP 53
    PC 4
    NI 18
    Respect 1
    Green 0
    Speaker 1

    Not too late Plato. You have until tomorrow.

    The site is here

    http://www.electiongame.co.uk/

    and the link to the specific game is at the top of the sidebar on there.
  • Anorak
    Anorak Posts: 6,621
    Casino_Royale said:

    Pulpstar said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    "Coogan's about as socialist as Floyd Mayweather, only considerably less likeable" - Piers Morgan

    Alien vs Predator.

    Floyd Mayweather is one of the greatest boxers of all time. He deserves his millions for having ungodly talent and dedication.
    Coogan is a fantastic character comedian, and a deeply troubled individual.
    If by "deeply troubled individual" you mean "wanker", then I'd wholeheartedly agree.
  • Richard_Tyndall
    Richard_Tyndall Posts: 33,463
    acf2310 said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Since people are being brave enough to make final predictions here are mine - or rather here are the numbers I put in for the excellent Election Game.

    Con 295
    Labour 256
    LibDem 16
    UKIP 6
    SNP 53
    PC 4
    NI 18
    Respect 1
    Green 0
    Speaker 1

    Ooh, Green 0. Lab gain in Brighton?

    Yep. Hope rather than necessarily expectation.
  • Neil
    Neil Posts: 7,983
    acf2310 said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Since people are being brave enough to make final predictions here are mine - or rather here are the numbers I put in for the excellent Election Game.

    Con 295
    Labour 256
    LibDem 16
    UKIP 6
    SNP 53
    PC 4
    NI 18
    Respect 1
    Green 0
    Speaker 1

    Ooh, Green 0. Lab gain in Brighton?

    Labour will gain in Brighton. Probably not Pavilion though.

  • llef
    llef Posts: 301
    my guesstimates...

    Con 270
    Labour 283
    LibDem 24
    UKIP 4
    SNP 45
    PC 3
    NI 18
    Respect 1
    Green 1

    I would like to see the coalition continue, but I fear it is not to be...
  • Lennon
    Lennon Posts: 1,815
    Neil said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Neil said:

    dyedwoolie said:


    Greens to come close in Norwich South (have given it them above)

    That would be a very pleasant surprise. I havent canvassed in Norwich in years so I had presumed from the outside it would be a very tough ask the way local results were going. I'd be more than happy with retaining Brighton Pavilion and getting one or two 2nd places. Anything more would be a bonus.
    Greens to trounce the yellow peril in Sheffield Central I reckon.
    That's a big hope. It would be a very distant second place if it came off but right now we have no second places to work on so we'll take what's going.
    In terms of 2nd places - I reckon that you should have Bristol West, Norwich South (Assuming that you don't sneak a win in either of them). Then Sheffield Central (although a ridiculously long way behind). Other than that, there is an outside chance in Streatham in my view.
  • Dair
    Dair Posts: 6,108
    Casino_Royale said:

    Pulpstar said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    "Coogan's about as socialist as Floyd Mayweather, only considerably less likeable" - Piers Morgan

    Alien vs Predator.

    Floyd Mayweather is one of the greatest boxers of all time. He deserves his millions for having ungodly talent and dedication.
    Coogan is a fantastic character comedian, and a deeply troubled individual.
    There's been surprisingly little backlash.

    I thought it was a stupid idea using him. But I guess his troubles are pretty well known and wouldn't really provide a decent story. But given his troubles are well known, you have to ask how much is his endorsement worth.
  • GIN1138
    GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    edited May 2015
    Pulpstar said:

    http://electionsetc.com/

    Stephen Fisher !

    Con + Lib + DUP = EICINPM or EMWNBPM?

  • Philip_Thompson
    Philip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Curious about the practice of writing NI 18 in seat projections. In a Parliament as close as is being forecast the breakdown of that 18 could be critical. Alliance for instance would probably go with Labour but if the Unionists recover that seat then it'd probably be more palatable for Tory and LD than Labour and SNP.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    GIN1138 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    http://electionsetc.com/

    Stephen Fisher !

    Con + Lib + DUP = EICINPM or EMWNBPM?

    More the fact that his central projection of Con 289, Lab 257 gives a 50-50 probability of PM Ed. It gives a good indication of why Ed should still be favourite for PM.
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Neil said:

    acf2310 said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Since people are being brave enough to make final predictions here are mine - or rather here are the numbers I put in for the excellent Election Game.

    Con 295
    Labour 256
    LibDem 16
    UKIP 6
    SNP 53
    PC 4
    NI 18
    Respect 1
    Green 0
    Speaker 1

    Ooh, Green 0. Lab gain in Brighton?

    Labour will gain in Brighton. Probably not Pavilion though.

    Brighton Kemptown is a "Must hold" for Dave.
  • Dair
    Dair Posts: 6,108
    Crap I forgot the SDLP - actual final prediction.

    Tory - 280
    Labour - 269
    SNP - 57
    Liberal 15
    DUP - 8
    Plaid - 5
    Sinn Fein - 4
    Independent (inc Speaker) - 3
    Green - 3
    SDLP - 3
    Respect - 1
    Alliance - 1
  • Tissue_Price
    Tissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Cameron in Twickenham. :p
  • Neil
    Neil Posts: 7,983
    Lennon said:

    Neil said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Neil said:

    dyedwoolie said:


    Greens to come close in Norwich South (have given it them above)

    That would be a very pleasant surprise. I havent canvassed in Norwich in years so I had presumed from the outside it would be a very tough ask the way local results were going. I'd be more than happy with retaining Brighton Pavilion and getting one or two 2nd places. Anything more would be a bonus.
    Greens to trounce the yellow peril in Sheffield Central I reckon.
    That's a big hope. It would be a very distant second place if it came off but right now we have no second places to work on so we'll take what's going.
    In terms of 2nd places - I reckon that you should have Bristol West, Norwich South (Assuming that you don't sneak a win in either of them). Then Sheffield Central (although a ridiculously long way behind). Other than that, there is an outside chance in Streatham in my view.
    I would agree with all those. Difficult to tell where the Lib Dems will implode and by how much in London but I reckon Holborn and St Pancras, Lewisham Deptford and Hackney North are all better shots than Streatham.

  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Tissue_Price said:

    Cameron in Twickenham. :p

    I'd definitely vote for the Conservatives in Twickers. I just want to see big names toppled tbh :D
  • Tissue_Price
    Tissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    With high[er] turnout forecast it might be worth revisiting Patrick's 2009 piece:

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2009/12/30/guest-slot-from-patrick-on-the-impact-of-turnout/

    Though of course this was in a simpler and happier world...
  • Dimitry
    Dimitry Posts: 49
    BannedInParis said:

    More on the Policy Obelisk

    “I don’t think anyone is suggesting that the fact that he’s carved them into stone means, you know, means that he will absolutely, you know, not going to break them or anything like that.”

    Can there be anything better than this yet to come before this is over? Surely impossible - and yet ....
  • isam
    isam Posts: 42,205
    Lennon said:

    Neil said:

    Pulpstar said:

    Neil said:

    dyedwoolie said:


    Greens to come close in Norwich South (have given it them above)

    That would be a very pleasant surprise. I havent canvassed in Norwich in years so I had presumed from the outside it would be a very tough ask the way local results were going. I'd be more than happy with retaining Brighton Pavilion and getting one or two 2nd places. Anything more would be a bonus.
    Greens to trounce the yellow peril in Sheffield Central I reckon.
    That's a big hope. It would be a very distant second place if it came off but right now we have no second places to work on so we'll take what's going.
    In terms of 2nd places - I reckon that you should have Bristol West, Norwich South (Assuming that you don't sneak a win in either of them). Then Sheffield Central (although a ridiculously long way behind). Other than that, there is an outside chance in Streatham in my view.
    Were you at the Matt Forde gig last week?
  • Pulpstar
    Pulpstar Posts: 79,813
    Dair said:

    Crap I forgot the SDLP - actual final prediction.

    Tory - 280
    Labour - 269
    SNP - 57
    Liberal 15
    DUP - 8
    Plaid - 5
    Sinn Fein - 4
    Independent (inc Speaker) - 3
    Green - 3
    SDLP - 3
    Respect - 1
    Alliance - 1

    How could you forget the SDLP ?!!
  • Plato
    Plato Posts: 15,724
    Super, thanx for that.
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Plato said:

    Is it too late to fill that in? If not, anyone got a linky?

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Since people are being brave enough to make final predictions here are mine - or rather here are the numbers I put in for the excellent Election Game.

    Con 295
    Labour 256
    LibDem 16
    UKIP 6
    SNP 53
    PC 4
    NI 18
    Respect 1
    Green 0
    Speaker 1

    Not too late Plato. You have until tomorrow.

    The site is here

    http://www.electiongame.co.uk/

    and the link to the specific game is at the top of the sidebar on there.
  • Ghedebrav
    Ghedebrav Posts: 3,860
    PREDICTION: I'll jump in with my high-drama prediction:

    LAB 275
    CON 275
    SNP 44
    LD 26
    DUP 8
    SF 6
    UKIP 4
    PC 3
    SDLP 2
    Respect 1
    Speaker 1
    NHA 1
    Green 1
    LSH 1
    UUP 1


    Plus one random seat that has to go to the polls again for an unforeseen reason...
  • AllyPally_Rob
    AllyPally_Rob Posts: 605
    Dair said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Pulpstar said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    "Coogan's about as socialist as Floyd Mayweather, only considerably less likeable" - Piers Morgan

    Alien vs Predator.

    Floyd Mayweather is one of the greatest boxers of all time. He deserves his millions for having ungodly talent and dedication.
    Coogan is a fantastic character comedian, and a deeply troubled individual.
    There's been surprisingly little backlash.

    I thought it was a stupid idea using him. But I guess his troubles are pretty well known and wouldn't really provide a decent story. But given his troubles are well known, you have to ask how much is his endorsement worth.
    They'd have been better off getting Partridge to do a spoof Tory endorsement!
  • Neil
    Neil Posts: 7,983
    Pulpstar said:

    Neil said:

    acf2310 said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    Since people are being brave enough to make final predictions here are mine - or rather here are the numbers I put in for the excellent Election Game.

    Con 295
    Labour 256
    LibDem 16
    UKIP 6
    SNP 53
    PC 4
    NI 18
    Respect 1
    Green 0
    Speaker 1

    Ooh, Green 0. Lab gain in Brighton?

    Labour will gain in Brighton. Probably not Pavilion though.

    Brighton Kemptown is a "Must hold" for Dave.
    18% Lib Dem vote to squeeze? I cant see it myself.

  • Tissue_Price
    Tissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Pulpstar said:

    Tissue_Price said:

    Cameron in Twickenham. :p

    I'd definitely vote for the Conservatives in Twickers. I just want to see big names toppled tbh :D
    Clegg was there yesterday too. Vince is clearly at risk (but then so is anyone with an orange rosette).
  • taffys
    taffys Posts: 9,753
    Cameron in Twickenham.

    Would he be there if he didn;t think it was close?
  • ukelect
    ukelect Posts: 140
    Latest UK-Elect detailed forecast:

    May 5 UK-Elect detailed forecast

    As usual, it takes into account national, regional and constituency polls, and includes top 3 predictions for every UK Constituency.
  • Tissue_Price
    Tissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Dimitry said:

    BannedInParis said:

    More on the Policy Obelisk

    “I don’t think anyone is suggesting that the fact that he’s carved them into stone means, you know, means that he will absolutely, you know, not going to break them or anything like that.”

    Can there be anything better than this yet to come before this is over? Surely impossible - and yet ....
    So you haven't heard about the tattoo?
  • Razedabode
    Razedabode Posts: 3,117
    Just having a browse of the BBC Election feed, and it seems to be a never ending splurge of threats about the NHS from Labour. I know they're trusted on this issue, but to consistently push the "24 hours to save it" line smacks of utter desperation to me (alongside the 6000 nurse losses...)

    I've noticed Labours panicky rhetoric more so in the last two days than at any other point in the campaign. Being that the polls are tied, is there any reason for them continue with this stance "if" they seem likely to become largest party?
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    The key difference in 2010 was UKIP were polling around 3% not 12/13%+ so if the Tories can squeeze that down to around 10% they should get up to 35/36%+
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,724
    Dair said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Pulpstar said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    "Coogan's about as socialist as Floyd Mayweather, only considerably less likeable" - Piers Morgan

    Alien vs Predator.

    Floyd Mayweather is one of the greatest boxers of all time. He deserves his millions for having ungodly talent and dedication.
    Coogan is a fantastic character comedian, and a deeply troubled individual.
    There's been surprisingly little backlash.

    I thought it was a stupid idea using him. But I guess his troubles are pretty well known and wouldn't really provide a decent story. But given his troubles are well known, you have to ask how much is his endorsement worth.
    He is yet another massive hypocrite, deeply troubled and not very nice individual.

    This is a man who was so outraged by the activities of the NOTW, he used to ring up his man on the celeb gossip desk there and get them to spike stories about his illegal behaviour.
  • Barnesian
    Barnesian Posts: 9,221
    My prediction:

    23:00 7th May
    Houghton & Sunderland South
    Richard Peter Elvin (UKIP) 5,150
    Stewart Hay (Conservative) 8,277
    Bridget Phillipson (Labour) 20,106
    Others less than 1,000
    Con-> Lab swing 2.3%

    Caution - there is an MOE.
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    AndyJS looks probable though the LDs will likely lose Berwickshire to the Tories while the SNP gain Dumfrieshire
  • Millsy
    Millsy Posts: 900
    taffys said:

    Cameron in Twickenham.

    Would he be there if he didn;t think it was close?

    That would be a scalp! Keep Clegg safe and dump the red liberals
  • Ghedebrav
    Ghedebrav Posts: 3,860
    AllyPally_Rob said:

    Dair said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Pulpstar said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    "Coogan's about as socialist as Floyd Mayweather, only considerably less likeable" - Piers Morgan

    Alien vs Predator.

    Floyd Mayweather is one of the greatest boxers of all time. He deserves his millions for having ungodly talent and dedication.
    Coogan is a fantastic character comedian, and a deeply troubled individual.
    There's been surprisingly little backlash.

    I thought it was a stupid idea using him. But I guess his troubles are pretty well known and wouldn't really provide a decent story. But given his troubles are well known, you have to ask how much is his endorsement worth.
    They'd have been better off getting Partridge to do a spoof Tory endorsement!
    I thought exactly the same thing! Who cares what Coogan himself thinks?

  • Neil
    Neil Posts: 7,983
    edited May 2015
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Curious about the practice of writing NI 18 in seat projections. In a Parliament as close as is being forecast the breakdown of that 18 could be critical. Alliance for instance would probably go with Labour but if the Unionists recover that seat then it'd probably be more palatable for Tory and LD than Labour and SNP.

    Sinn Féin will abstain and the SDLP will only support Labour. Lady Hermon (if she gets back in) is more disposed towards Labour than Tories. Beyond that all other Northern Ireland MPs (in practice this probably just means all DUP MPs) are for sale.

  • Dair
    Dair Posts: 6,108
    Pulpstar said:

    Dair said:

    Crap I forgot the SDLP - actual final prediction.

    Tory - 280
    Labour - 269
    SNP - 57
    Liberal 15
    DUP - 8
    Plaid - 5
    Sinn Fein - 4
    Independent (inc Speaker) - 3
    Green - 3
    SDLP - 3
    Respect - 1
    Alliance - 1

    How could you forget the SDLP ?!!
    Ed Miliband seems to have forgotten the SDLP when he ruled out working with "parties that seek to break up Britain" :smiley:
  • Anorak
    Anorak Posts: 6,621
    edited May 2015
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Curious about the practice of writing NI 18 in seat projections. In a Parliament as close as is being forecast the breakdown of that 18 could be critical. Alliance for instance would probably go with Labour but if the Unionists recover that seat then it'd probably be more palatable for Tory and LD than Labour and SNP.

    I think it's because most people (including me) only have a vague understanding of NI politics. That may be unkind to fellow posters, but that's my perception.

    Furthermore, my impression is that sectarian gerrymandering has rendered most seats 'safe' for one party or another - but I'm happy to be educated/corrected!
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,724
    Ghedebrav said:

    AllyPally_Rob said:

    Dair said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    Pulpstar said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    "Coogan's about as socialist as Floyd Mayweather, only considerably less likeable" - Piers Morgan

    Alien vs Predator.

    Floyd Mayweather is one of the greatest boxers of all time. He deserves his millions for having ungodly talent and dedication.
    Coogan is a fantastic character comedian, and a deeply troubled individual.
    There's been surprisingly little backlash.

    I thought it was a stupid idea using him. But I guess his troubles are pretty well known and wouldn't really provide a decent story. But given his troubles are well known, you have to ask how much is his endorsement worth.
    They'd have been better off getting Partridge to do a spoof Tory endorsement!
    I thought exactly the same thing! Who cares what Coogan himself thinks?

    I seemed to remember Labour got Laurie and Fry to do exactly that many moons ago.
  • Plato
    Plato Posts: 15,724
    I''m expecting Berwickshire to go blue too.
    HYUFD said:

    AndyJS looks probable though the LDs will likely lose Berwickshire to the Tories while the SNP gain Dumfrieshire

  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    Oh FFS

    @nickeardley: David Cameron is planning to "cling on" in Downing Street after the election, claims Gordon Brown
  • bigjohnowls
    bigjohnowls Posts: 22,951
    Razedabode said:

    Just having a browse of the BBC Election feed, and it seems to be a never ending splurge of threats about the NHS from Labour. I know they're trusted on this issue, but to consistently push the "24 hours to save it" line smacks of utter desperation to me (alongside the 6000 nurse losses...)

    I've noticed Labours panicky rhetoric more so in the last two days than at any other point in the campaign. Being that the polls are tied, is there any reason for them continue with this stance "if" they seem likely to become largest party?

    Every seat counts.

    The NHS is either the most important or 2nd most important issue in all the polls.

    Over two thirds of hospitals have forecast deficits nearly all the clinical access standards are worse under the Tories.

    It is valid for LAB to point this out.
  • Prodicus
    Prodicus Posts: 658
    Casino_Royale said:

    Pulpstar said:



    Coogan is a fantastic character comedian, and a deeply troubled individual.

    Reminds me of the utterly brilliant Peter Sellars who could 'be' anyone he wanted to except himself, of whom he despaired.

  • NoEasyDay
    NoEasyDay Posts: 454
    Razedabode said:

    Just having a browse of the BBC Election feed, and it seems to be a never ending splurge of threats about the NHS from Labour. I know they're trusted on this issue, but to consistently push the "24 hours to save it" line smacks of utter desperation to me (alongside the 6000 nurse losses...)

    I've noticed Labours panicky rhetoric more so in the last two days than at any other point in the campaign. Being that the polls are tied, is there any reason for them continue with this stance "if" they seem likely to become largest party?

    Very reminiscent of "24 hours to save the pound" nobody believed that either.

    I am more and more beginning to think that Milli and Cam know something the pollsters don't/
  • Anorak
    Anorak Posts: 6,621
    Scott_P said:

    Oh FFS

    @nickeardley: David Cameron is planning to "cling on" in Downing Street after the election, claims Gordon Brown

    Odd, I don't remember Gordon exiting No.10 the day after the election. I must have a memory problem...
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    Plato Indeed

    PT The Alliance will go with the largest party, same as the LDs, their sister party
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,724
    Scott_P said:

    Oh FFS

    @nickeardley: David Cameron is planning to "cling on" in Downing Street after the election, claims Gordon Brown

    We he the man behind Ed Stone? As that is the sort of lack of self awareness required to come up with that statement and also the stone.
  • watford30
    watford30 Posts: 3,474
    bigjohnowls said:

    Razedabode said:

    Just having a browse of the BBC Election feed, and it seems to be a never ending splurge of threats about the NHS from Labour. I know they're trusted on this issue, but to consistently push the "24 hours to save it" line smacks of utter desperation to me (alongside the 6000 nurse losses...)

    I've noticed Labours panicky rhetoric more so in the last two days than at any other point in the campaign. Being that the polls are tied, is there any reason for them continue with this stance "if" they seem likely to become largest party?

    Every seat counts.

    The NHS is either the most important or 2nd most important issue in all the polls.

    Over two thirds of hospitals have forecast deficits nearly all the clinical access standards are worse under the Tories.

    It is valid for LAB to point this out.
    Hospitals crippled by the costs of Labour's PFI schemes.
  • GIN1138
    GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    Pulpstar said:

    GIN1138 said:

    Pulpstar said:

    http://electionsetc.com/

    Stephen Fisher !

    Con + Lib + DUP = EICINPM or EMWNBPM?

    More the fact that his central projection of Con 289, Lab 257 gives a 50-50 probability of PM Ed. It gives a good indication of why Ed should still be favourite for PM.
    Even if mathematically possible I can't see Ed becoming PM with 257 seats and more than 30 seats behind Con...
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