politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The YouGov poll at this point in the 2010 race got the CON-

Richard_Nabavi said:

Talking of predictions, I should make clear that, like antifrank, I think quite a wide range of outcomes remain possible, and I've bet on that basis. I've been checking out my expected P+L against various outcomes. I have a computer model which allows me to estimate which bets will win/lose for various seat totals. For example, I can set assumptions for the total number of seats won by the SNP, LD and UKIP, and the model then generates a graph of expected net profit against the final Con seat total, based on assuming that constituencies fall in roughly the order specified by the odds.

Looking at the results, I think I've overdone the 'wide range' bit: in all realistic scenarios my expected profit is almost unchanged from Lab just short of a majority, right up to Con landslide (if there's a Lab Majority the profit becomes huge). The main variable in my book is how well the SNP do.

Time to take a few more last-minute risks, I think!

antifrank said:

The mood music from both main parties in the press suggests that Labour are in trouble. But Labour always seem pessimistic and the Conservatives always seem optimistic. And no one can really say that they understand what the polling means with any honesty.

I do regard the price on Labour Most Seats as absurd. This election is far more uncertain than most because of all the polling upheavals that have taken place in the last five years. The bellcurve of possible outcomes is much flatter than usual.

Anyway, I will do just fine if I'm right or if JackW and Richard Nabavi are right. It will be a less happy night for me if either party gets an overall majority.

Pulpstar said:

taffys said:

"Were you up for Cable"

If they are bricking it in Twickenham, they are bricking in all over London.

Brake is safe I reckon.

2-7 Brake, 9-2 Against Vince is a possible play.

Pulpstar said:

How does UKIP 20+ seats leave you ?

Cyclefree said:

http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2015/05/election-night-will-the-silent-ukip-phenomenon-come-to-pass/

Rather more optimistic about Labour's chances than some on here.

AndyJS said:

Con + LD could be heading for more than 50% of the vote in England & Wales which would be a stunning endorsement of the current government.

Casino_Royale said:

timmo said:

Still hearing noises out of Twickenham that Cable could be in trouble..LibDems had to move an action day team on Saturday and Sunday over there to try and firm up his vote.
The mansion tax isnt going down at all well in those expensive parts..

I think the LDs are in all sorts of trouble where they currently hold affluent middle-clas suburban/posh English seats facing Conservative challengers.

SouthamObserver said:

I got the last US presidential election horribly wrong and the Scottish referendum happily wrong. I am, therefore, seen as a crap tipster. But I did call it early for Boris in 2008 and got the hung Parliament result right for 2010 eventually, having initially tipped the Tories. I also called it for a hung parliament in 2015 back in the summer of 2010. And I said EdM would win the Labour leadership and that he would be crap. And on top of all that, I predicted a UKIP surge in Eastern England for the Euro elections long before anyone else.

But you are only ever remembered for being spectacularly right or wrong on here. And I have been vociferously and spectacularly wrong twice. I am confident, though, that I will come close to redemption on Friday.

rcs1000 said:

Casino_Royale said:

timmo said:

Still hearing noises out of Twickenham that Cable could be in trouble..LibDems had to move an action day team on Saturday and Sunday over there to try and firm up his vote.
The mansion tax isnt going down at all well in those expensive parts..

I think the LDs are in all sorts of trouble where they currently hold affluent middle-clas suburban/posh English seats facing Conservative challengers.

There are a lot of wealthy market towns in the South East of England where Red Liberals have resulted in LD MPs.

The question is: can the LDs get Conservatives to "lend them their vote" on Thursday?

I suspect not - and this puts a lot of seats in play: Eastleigh, Eastbourne, Yeovil, Bath, etc.

Richard_Nabavi said:

Casino_Royale said:

My thoughts precisely. I don't know quite what Out are playing at.

If they want to win in 2017, they need to be forming a cross-party group *now* with a clear post-EU goal, and campaign relentlessly for it for the next two years.

Otherwise In will win. Comfortably. I'd say 60-40.

(PS. The plus side of a strong Out campaign, even for pro-EU reformers, is that such pressure would probably put even more steel into the EU-UK government negotiations, as they realised Out was a perfectly credible and possible outcome)

If UKIP and other Out supporters were actually serious about wanting us to leave the EU, they'd have recommended their supporters to vote Conservative to get the referendum, reformed themselves as the Out campaign, and spent the last couple of years building up a really solid political, economic and practical case, taking full advantage of people like Dan Hannan.
Instead the Kippers are playing at immigration-politics, working to put Ed Miliband into No 10, and making a referendum as unlikely as they can. That's their prerogative, of course, but their actions demonstrate conclusively that their priority is not leaving the EU.

Pulpstar said:

timmo said:

Still hearing noises out of Twickenham that Cable could be in trouble..LibDems had to move an action day team on Saturday and Sunday over there to try and firm up his vote.
The mansion tax isnt going down at all well in those expensive parts..

It'd be hilarious if Vince Cable is chucked out. OGH must reckon he's in a spot of bother or why would he have lent him his vote in what should be a safe LD seat.

"Were you up for Cable"

Richard_Nabavi said:

There wasn't a single forecaster last time who got the LD total even close. When the exit poll came out, no-one believed it. Even the academics who'd run it thought it must be wrong, and they hastily amended their model to bump up the LD total. Of course the first cut turned out to be almost exactly spot-on.

See here:

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/05/

malcolmg said:

CarlottaVance said:

malcolmg said:

fitalass said:

I wasn't around when it happened, but I believe it was because Easterross criticised OGH and John Curtice in a thread. I doubt my post on this subject will last the duration of this thread. But I feel pretty strongly about a decision like this on a site that allowed some pretty strong and prolonged abuse to some regular posters to go unchecked for years while being extremely thin skinned about any criticism of their own opinions. And especially after they have on more than one occasion tried to undermine particular posters like Easterross. At the end of the day, who has contributed more to the site on a regular basis, Easteross or MalcolmG?

FrancisUrquhart said:

fitalass said:

FPT. "franklyn Posts: 31
May 4
We haven't heard from Easteross for a while; would value his latest insights"

Sadly, Easteross was banned from PB.com a wee while ago, some castigate him for a Scots Tory surge that didn't happen while totally ignoring fact that he got it right on Libdem seat drop at last GE. But you can still contact him via twitter @M Sutherland-Fisher to get his 2015 GE predictions.

Banned for what? I don't remember Easteross as a particularly abrasive poster or one that got into huge spats with anybody.

Away you useless Tory halfwit , you would not recognise a contribution if it slapped you on the face. Keep your personal hatred of me out of it you whinging halfwit, stick to talking mince about Tory surges.

Thank you for proving her point......

The halfwit deserves it , she cannot insult people with impunity.

OblitusSumMe said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

There wasn't a single forecaster last time who got the LD total even close. When the exit poll came out, no-one believed it. Even the academics who'd run it thought it must be wrong, and they hastily amended their model to bump up the LD total. Of course the first cut turned out to be almost exactly spot-on.

See here:

http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2010/05/

So are there elements of the consensus that might be wrong this time, or do we have so much more information (eg from the Ashcroft polling) that there isn't the scope for that?

I think a net increase in Conservative seats is one such possibility, and isn't that outlandish if you start your analysis with the phone polls, but I've not seen a prediction that doesn't have Tory losses to Labour > Tory gains from Liberal Democrats.

A few people are predicting that the SNP will end up with around the number of MPs that the Lib Dems won at GE2010 (57), but no-one has forecast the converse of six seats for the Lib Dems this time.

An exit poll that put UKIP above 10 seats would defy the consensus as much as the 2010 exit poll did on Lib Dem seats. Is it really that unlikely?

dyedwoolie said:

Greens to come close in Norwich South (have given it them above)

SandyRentool said:

What they were doing in Bishop Auckland rather than Stockton South is a mystery.

Plato said:

Kippers 5? Where do think they'll be?

AndyJS said:

My latest seats prediction:

Con 285
Lab 258
SNP 50
LD 30
UKIP 5
PC 3
Green 1

Prodicus said:

Dunno if anyone has already posted this from Tim Shippers:

'Crucially for the Conservatives 50% of voters now say the government is managing the economy well, a mark it has not hit since June 2010. A YouGov poll for the Sun on Sunday also finds that 49% of voters now make the economy their top election issue — up 10 points since January – ahead of the NHS and immigration."

botanically_speaking said:

NI to get control of benefits(for the DUP)

Tissue_Price said:

Britain Elects ‏@britainelects

Latest Populus poll (01 - 03 May):
CON - 34% (+1)
LAB - 34% (+1)
UKIP - 13% (-2)
LDEM - 10% (+1)

Neil said:

botanically_speaking said:

NI to get control of benefits(for the DUP)

Social security policy is already devolved to Northern Ireland. It almost brought down power sharing recently. They cant really handle the responsibility.

Neil said:

dyedwoolie said:

Greens to come close in Norwich South (have given it them above)

That would be a very pleasant surprise. I havent canvassed in Norwich in years so I had presumed from the outside it would be a very tough ask the way local results were going. I'd be more than happy with retaining Brighton Pavilion and getting one or two 2nd places. Anything more would be a bonus.

Plato said:

Errr.... Witney?

https://twitter.com/johnmknox/status/595349493492666370

Plato said:

https://twitter.com/SkyNewsCamera/status/595520712451989504