Skip to content

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The likely final polls with when we can expect them

SystemSystem Posts: 12,651
edited May 2015 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The likely final polls with when we can expect them



If I’ve made a mistake or you have better info then please email me ASAP.

Read the full story here


«1345

Comments

  • eekeek Posts: 31,053
    first. Unlike any party in this election
  • DavidBrackenburyDavidBrackenbury Posts: 357
    Well, it won't be too long now. Putting in the final effort in Corby & East Northants.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    YouGoved again today.

    Had to do a few which celebrity would you like to see on TV along the way.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,315
    edited May 2015
    Much obliged.

    Was out walking after watching The Avengers again, and saw my first political poster in someone's window of the campaign. It was a Labour poster, which, clearly, in mu very safe Tory seat, is surely an indication of an outright Labour win. Or of nothing. One of the two.
  • DavidBrackenburyDavidBrackenbury Posts: 357
    Lots of UKIP posters up in Corby.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    DavidBrackenbury said:

    Well, it won't be too long now. Putting in the final effort in Corby & East Northants.

    Sorry to be pedantic but why does everyone call it that when the correct name is simply Corby?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,738
    Sunil Prasannan ‏@Sunil_P2 10s10 seconds ago

    Just got a hand-delivered leaflet through through door from @LeeScott - half of it is Tamil - but we don't speak Tamil! #IlfordNorth

  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    foxinsoxuk said:

    YouGoved again today.

    Had to do a few which celebrity would you like to see on TV along the way.

    What a tiny pond YouGov are fishing in.

    I am absolutely struggling to think what, other than the innate decency and sense of fair play of the average politician, would prevent a political party from trying to stack the online panels.
    It wouldn't even be illegal as far as I can see.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    For the first time I'm getting pre-match nerves.

    I'd prefer Sam and Cam to be in Tory/Lab marginals not really in Lib D ones for example.

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,621
    FPT
    dr_spyn said:

    Berger trying to avoid the question, pretending that she can't hear or see what Anderew Neil said re that segregated audience.

    Good to see this story keep running - Telegraph and Spectator also have it this morning. For some reason Labour candidates seen really unwilling to talk about it to a national audience.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,738


    Can we do a thread on this? Can we?

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/594835246866157570
    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/594829632681222144
    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/594825574788509696
    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/594824019473477632
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    Does it help Nick Clegg, to get his private conversation leaked with David Cameron, saying that the PM told him, he can not win a majority ?

    First story on the 1PM BBC NEWS.

    I would have thought not.

  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    I believe SPIN is overestimating Con by 20 and underestimating Lab about 10.

    At this time in 2010, SPIN overestimated Tories by 15, underestimated Labour by 45.
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Just completed a panelbase survey which appears to be specifically for Scottish VI. Possible Scottish Eve of poll from them.
  • DavidBrackenburyDavidBrackenbury Posts: 357
    AndyJS said:

    DavidBrackenbury said:

    Well, it won't be too long now. Putting in the final effort in Corby & East Northants.

    Sorry to be pedantic but why does everyone call it that when the correct name is simply Corby?
    You are legally correct, but it emphasises the disparate nature of Corby town and the very rural East Northants. It will be interesting to see which part outguns the other!
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    I hope all the final polls are mega size and fully weighted for England.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,621
    edited May 2015
    AndyJS said:

    DavidBrackenbury said:

    Well, it won't be too long now. Putting in the final effort in Corby & East Northants.

    Sorry to be pedantic but why does everyone call it that when the correct name is simply Corby?
    He is referring to the constituency name - see map at http://www.corbyandeastnorthantsconservatives.org.uk/
    It's quite a geographically large constituency, taking in a lot of little villages that surround the town. Was marginal Con win in 2010 but returned to Lab in a by-election - Louise Bagshawe resigned from Parliament after getting married to move to the US.
    Large UKIP presence in the town is most likely taking Labour WVM votes, there's a large Polish population in the town (and famously also a large Scottish polulation).
    A tight race, Labour need to win it to be in with a chance.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Sunil Prasannan ‏@Sunil_P2 10s10 seconds ago

    Just got a hand-delivered leaflet through through door from @LeeScott - half of it is Tamil - but we don't speak Tamil! #IlfordNorth

    What about your mother ?

    Do you have enough weighted England only or E &W data from the last week ?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,621
    Yorkcity said:

    Does it help Nick Clegg, to get his private conversation leaked with David Cameron, saying that the PM told him, he can not win a majority ?

    First story on the 1PM BBC NEWS.

    I would have thought not.

    This and the Danny Alexander stuff from last week just underline a massive lack of trust in the LDs. Surely there was a formal meeting before the campaign where everyone agreed that what went on in government should stay in government (for 30 years anyway)?
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 7,098
    Yorkcity said:

    Does it help Nick Clegg, to get his private conversation leaked with David Cameron, saying that the PM told him, he can not win a majority ?

    First story on the 1PM BBC NEWS.

    I would have thought not.

    Bizarrely, although it was the lead story it is not on the website (you have to go to the main election item and then scroll right down to the bottom of the page).

    More bizarrely, milord Scriven's tweet is worded thus "So Cameron has taken to lying on Tory Maj." He seems to be accusing of lying about whether there will be a majority or not, not that he told Clegg that. Well... how can you lie about an event in the future that is undetermined? I could tell you Arsenal will win the Cup Final, if they lose it was hardly a lie.

    On the other hand I don't know what is wrong with saying... well the polls are close and we know what happened last time, but I am going for a majority and believe one is possible. Seems simple to me.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,908
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    For the first time I'm getting pre-match nerves.

    I'd prefer Sam and Cam to be in Tory/Lab marginals not really in Lib D ones for example.

    Yes, nicking seats off LD adds nothing to the coalition.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    Dair said:

    Just completed a panelbase survey which appears to be specifically for Scottish VI. Possible Scottish Eve of poll from them.

    What a tiny pond the online pollsters are fishing in. Given the population size being polled at all should be a blue moon, black swan event, not something that happens twice in the first 14 posts in a thread (one of them "again").

    Sunil's proposed thread is well overdue.
  • BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191
    It's really not lying.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 7,098
    surbiton said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Sunil Prasannan ‏@Sunil_P2 10s10 seconds ago

    Just got a hand-delivered leaflet through through door from @LeeScott - half of it is Tamil - but we don't speak Tamil! #IlfordNorth

    What about your mother ?

    Do you have enough weighted England only or E &W data from the last week ?
    I think Sunil's family are Keralan so Malayalam is more likely.

  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    edited May 2015
    BannedInParis said:

    It's really not lying.

    The snow? The pledges on the EdStone? Please help us out a bit here.
    Edit: oh I see you mean Cameron. Agree.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,315
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Sunil Prasannan ‏@Sunil_P2 10s10 seconds ago

    Just got a hand-delivered leaflet through through door from @LeeScott - half of it is Tamil - but we don't speak Tamil! #IlfordNorth

    Well, with pandering, I guess it's the thought that counts?
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    Sandpit said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Does it help Nick Clegg, to get his private conversation leaked with David Cameron, saying that the PM told him, he can not win a majority ?

    First story on the 1PM BBC NEWS.

    I would have thought not.

    This and the Danny Alexander stuff from last week just underline a massive lack of trust in the LDs. Surely there was a formal meeting before the campaign where everyone agreed that what went on in government should stay in government (for 30 years anyway)?
    I agree , I do not like it,especially if if the leak has been officially authorised by Clegg.
    I hope Cameron does not feel the need to retaliate and leak other private conversations.
  • Steven_WhaleySteven_Whaley Posts: 313
    Ishmael_X said:

    Dair said:

    Just completed a panelbase survey which appears to be specifically for Scottish VI. Possible Scottish Eve of poll from them.

    What a tiny pond the online pollsters are fishing in. Given the population size being polled at all should be a blue moon, black swan event, not something that happens twice in the first 14 posts in a thread (one of them "again").

    Sunil's proposed thread is well overdue.
    I've just done a YouGov voting intention poll too. It's my third one since the election campaign began.

  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    BBC reporting that Jim Murphy is campaigning in Glasgow with comedian Eddie Izzard..!

    Hmmm. - Not the luckiest talisman I’d have thought.
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Ipsos-MORI always release their final poll in the Standard on the morning election day. Fieldwork finishes the previous evening.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    FPT:
    3plumloot said:

    WOW - just looked it up - in 2010 SPIN underestimated Labour by 40 seats.

    Can't believe it was that wrong.

    That's mainly because the Labour share and vote didn't match up in the way that it had in previous elections.

    1983: 28%, 209 seats
    1987: 32%, 229 seats
    1992: 35%, 271 seats

    Labour got 29.7% in 2010 so you'd have expected them to get about 215 seats based on past experience.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 7,098
    surbiton said:

    I hope all the final polls are mega size and fully weighted for England.

    I have been wondering why pollsters (a) still split into "England and Wales" and (b) don't routinely run a bigger sample for Scotland, and balance it. Some of the online polls have been well over 2000, it would make sense for 1000 of them to be Scottish.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,866
    Mr. City, also follows Alexander's leaking/release of a three year old document of proposals about potential cuts which never happened.

    It may indicate Lib Dem desperation for tactical Labour voters.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    The constituency name is just "Corby".
    Sandpit said:

    AndyJS said:

    DavidBrackenbury said:

    Well, it won't be too long now. Putting in the final effort in Corby & East Northants.

    Sorry to be pedantic but why does everyone call it that when the correct name is simply Corby?
    He is referring to the constituency name - see map at http://www.corbyandeastnorthantsconservatives.org.uk/
    It's quite a geographically large constituency, taking in a lot of little villages that surround the town. Was marginal Con win in 2010 but returned to Lab in a by-election - Louise Bagshawe resigned from Parliament after getting married to move to the US.
    Large UKIP presence in the town is most likely taking Labour WVM votes, there's a large Polish population in the town (and famously also a large Scottish polulation).
    A tight race, Labour need to win it to be in with a chance.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    Looking at the above it's striking that of the 11 7 give Tory leads compared to 2 for Labour. No phone poll has Labour ahead. As far as I am aware none of them try to weed out unregistered voters. there are some interesting messages there even if little changes b4 Thursday.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,038
    kle4 said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Sunil Prasannan ‏@Sunil_P2 10s10 seconds ago

    Just got a hand-delivered leaflet through through door from @LeeScott - half of it is Tamil - but we don't speak Tamil! #IlfordNorth

    Well, with pandering, I guess it's the thought that counts?
    Was there a separate leaflet just for the little lady of the household?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,315
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. City, also follows Alexander's leaking/release of a three year old document of proposals about potential cuts which never happened.

    It may indicate Lib Dem desperation for tactical Labour voters.

    I would not be in the least bit surprised if the quartet at least acknowledged that the LDs would leak such things. They need to try anything, and Cameron and Osborne privately probably accept that if in any way they can get back into power with the LDs again.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    Steven_Whaley said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    Dair said:

    Just completed a panelbase survey which appears to be specifically for Scottish VI. Possible Scottish Eve of poll from them.

    What a tiny pond the online pollsters are fishing in. Given the population size being polled at all should be a blue moon, black swan event, not something that happens twice in the first 14 posts in a thread (one of them "again").

    Sunil's proposed thread is well overdue.
    I've just done a YouGov voting intention poll too. It's my third one since the election campaign began.

    I rest my case, as they apparently say in US courts.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,866
    Mr. kle4, that's possible, although the Lib Dems are trading the certainty of making themselves look duplicitous for the possibility of gaining more voters than they put off [of course, they may have reached the conclusion that their trustworthiness is low enough that they can only make net gains].

    That's quite a few polls on Wednesday. I hope they don't all come at once.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Good to see that the BBC agrees with me that Edinburgh South is second-to-last on the SNP's target list:

    https://twitter.com/daily_politics/status/595188746556805121
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    AndyJS said:

    FPT:

    3plumloot said:

    WOW - just looked it up - in 2010 SPIN underestimated Labour by 40 seats.

    Can't believe it was that wrong.

    That's mainly because the Labour share and vote didn't match up in the way that it had in previous elections.

    1983: 28%, 209 seats
    1987: 32%, 229 seats
    1992: 35%, 271 seats

    Labour got 29.7% in 2010 so you'd have expected them to get about 215 seats based on past experience.
    I remember it being said in the eighties that FPTP favoured the Cons. It seems to have shifted, though the 2.5% of the Labour share that will gain a handful of Scottish seats may significantly compensate for this.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Steven_Whaley said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    Dair said:

    Just completed a panelbase survey which appears to be specifically for Scottish VI. Possible Scottish Eve of poll from them.

    What a tiny pond the online pollsters are fishing in. Given the population size being polled at all should be a blue moon, black swan event, not something that happens twice in the first 14 posts in a thread (one of them "again").

    Sunil's proposed thread is well overdue.
    I've just done a YouGov voting intention poll too. It's my third one since the election campaign began.

    I have done 3 too.
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. City, also follows Alexander's leaking/release of a three year old document of proposals about potential cuts which never happened.

    It may indicate Lib Dem desperation for tactical Labour voters.

    Good point.
    A very late differentiation strategy of their shared time in government.

    They have always needed Labour tactical voters especially in their southern seats, so why leave it so late ?
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,084
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Sunil Prasannan ‏@Sunil_P2 10s10 seconds ago

    Just got a hand-delivered leaflet through through door from @LeeScott - half of it is Tamil - but we don't speak Tamil! #IlfordNorth

    The Tamil vote is crucial - could swing it for Lee sadly...
  • BannedInParisBannedInParis Posts: 2,191
    Ishmael_X said:

    BannedInParis said:

    It's really not lying.

    The snow? The pledges on the EdStone? Please help us out a bit here.
    Edit: oh I see you mean Cameron. Agree.
    I'm so tired of this campaign, I forgot to press Quote. Sorry.
  • GeoffHGeoffH Posts: 56
    Yorkcity said:

    Sandpit said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Does it help Nick Clegg, to get his private conversation leaked with David Cameron, saying that the PM told him, he can not win a majority ?

    First story on the 1PM BBC NEWS.

    I would have thought not.

    This and the Danny Alexander stuff from last week just underline a massive lack of trust in the LDs. Surely there was a formal meeting before the campaign where everyone agreed that what went on in government should stay in government (for 30 years anyway)?
    I agree , I do not like it,especially if if the leak has been officially authorised by Clegg.
    I hope Cameron does not feel the need to retaliate and leak other private conversations.
    This is a particularly shabby piece of LibDem politicking.

    By using the word, 'private', it is impossible for Cameron to respond. It may also be a lie; no such 'private' conversation took place and Cameron, again, is in an impossible position.

    If he say's, 'No' to either the proposition of the conversation, then it simply invites the Many Rice Davis response.

    I doubt any such conversation took place. I doubt Cameron every vouchsafed such an idea and that this is a deliberate LibDem lie.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,866
    Mr. City, a few things to say to that.

    The Lib Dems have tried differentiation for years, only to be confounded when, having spent 3+ years knocking their own government, people are unwilling to give them credit for it has done.

    Also, this kind of 'betrayal' differentiation wouldn't've worked before because it would've created serious ructions in government (backbenchers would've enjoyed the excuse to kick off).

    You're right about it being pretty late, though.

    I do wonder, not just about elections, to what extent we just make snap decisions and then rationalise them, rather than considering evidence and then coming to a rational conclusion.
  • NeilNeil Posts: 7,983
    GeoffH said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Sandpit said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Does it help Nick Clegg, to get his private conversation leaked with David Cameron, saying that the PM told him, he can not win a majority ?

    First story on the 1PM BBC NEWS.

    I would have thought not.

    This and the Danny Alexander stuff from last week just underline a massive lack of trust in the LDs. Surely there was a formal meeting before the campaign where everyone agreed that what went on in government should stay in government (for 30 years anyway)?
    I agree , I do not like it,especially if if the leak has been officially authorised by Clegg.
    I hope Cameron does not feel the need to retaliate and leak other private conversations.
    This is a particularly shabby piece of LibDem politicking.

    By using the word, 'private', it is impossible for Cameron to respond. It may also be a lie; no such 'private' conversation took place and Cameron, again, is in an impossible position.

    If he say's, 'No' to either the proposition of the conversation, then it simply invites the Many Rice Davis response.

    I doubt any such conversation took place. I doubt Cameron every vouchsafed such an idea and that this is a deliberate LibDem lie.
    You're making a strong case for it being a particularly effective piece of Lib Dem politicking.

  • LadyBucketLadyBucket Posts: 590
    The last two days of this GE campaign are going to seem like two weeks, it is all getting a bit scratchy. which I suspect will just put more people off voting.

    It seems what story leads the news headlines these days, is unsubstantiated twitter gossip.

    What a duplicitous lot the Lib Dems are, I wouldn't spit on them if they were on fire.

    I'm sick to death of millionaire 'luvvies' like Delia Smith and Brand telling me how to vote.
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,718
    Celebrity endorsements are a bit pointless. Someone being famous for being an actor or a cook or anything else for that matter does not mean that they have any special insight or knowledge into anything else, let alone politics. Indeed, often when you hear them speak about politics you realise they have all the insight of a four year old.

  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    edited May 2015
    The segregated, largely muslim audience for a Labour rally, has finaly made it to the BBC via the underhand and unlikely rout of the Daily Politics:

    Segregated audience

    Daily Politics
    BBC Two
    Posted at 13:28
    Labour's shadow health minister Luciana Berger has been asked on BBC Two's Daily Politics about an event which was held at the weekend in which audience members were segregated according to their gender- with women sat on one side of the room and men on the other.

    Pictures of the event in Birmingham have been posted on Twitter.

    Asked if she was comfortable with segregated audiences she said: "It depends where these events are happening, and the context in which it occurred."

    The Daily Express have also reported on the issue, click here for their story.

    However, not many people will notice it as it's buried in the BBC Election Live blog.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 87,038
    Cyclefree said:

    Celebrity endorsements are a bit pointless. Someone being famous for being an actor or a cook or anything else for that matter does not mean that they have any special insight or knowledge into anything else, let alone politics. Indeed, often when you hear them speak about politics you realise they have all the insight of a four year old.

    Works for selling tat though. Some might say the manifestos of the major parties aren't much different from the crap being sold on Ideal World.
  • Flightpath1Flightpath1 Posts: 207
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. City, a few things to say to that.

    The Lib Dems have tried differentiation for years, only to be confounded when, having spent 3+ years knocking their own government, people are unwilling to give them credit for it has done.

    Also, this kind of 'betrayal' differentiation wouldn't've worked before because it would've created serious ructions in government (backbenchers would've enjoyed the excuse to kick off).

    You're right about it being pretty late, though.

    I do wonder, not just about elections, to what extent we just make snap decisions and then rationalise them, rather than considering evidence and then coming to a rational conclusion.

    Good last point.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,267
    AndyJS said:

    Good to see that the BBC agrees with me that Edinburgh South is second-to-last on the SNP's target list:

    twitter.com/daily_politics/status/595188746556805121

    Is it sad that the thing I like the most are the graphics?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,315
    MikeK said:



    Asked if she was comfortable with segregated audiences she said: "It depends where these events are happening, and the context in which it occurred."

    That's a long way of just saying, yes.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,760
    Cyclefree said:

    Celebrity endorsements are a bit pointless. Someone being famous for being an actor or a cook or anything else for that matter does not mean that they have any special insight or knowledge into anything else, let alone politics. Indeed, often when you hear them speak about politics you realise they have all the insight of a four year old.

    You're probably right about the endorsements themselves, but if you can get the celeb to deliver a message and then get people who don't normally tune into politics to listen to that message, that's potentially quite valuable.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Sunil Prasannan ‏@Sunil_P2 10s10 seconds ago

    Just got a hand-delivered leaflet through through door from @LeeScott - half of it is Tamil - but we don't speak Tamil! #IlfordNorth

    A shocking indictment of Gove's cuts to foreign language lessons.
  • GeoffHGeoffH Posts: 56
    foxinsoxuk said:

    Steven_Whaley said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    Dair said:

    Just completed a panelbase survey which appears to be specifically for Scottish VI. Possible Scottish Eve of poll from them.

    What a tiny pond the online pollsters are fishing in. Given the population size being polled at all should be a blue moon, black swan event, not something that happens twice in the first 14 posts in a thread (one of them "again").

    Sunil's proposed thread is well overdue.
    I've just done a YouGov voting intention poll too. It's my third one since the election campaign began.

    I have done 3 too.
    I have just completed my sixth.

    This is, I think, a problem with daily online polls. Has there been any research into the concept of 'survey fatigue'?

    Repetaedlt polling the same small band of respondents may severly distort the results.

    The only change I have been able to record in the six I have done is to become ever more emphatic in my answers where that is possible.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,866
    edited May 2015
    Miss Cyclefree, back when I regularly watched This Week there was a male actor (blonde chap, played one of the minor prices in Stardust) who advocated closer engagement with the EU and turning it to our advantage by making things more British. He appeared alongside some other chap [who lacked the important quality of fame, but had the alternative virtue of a fully functioning brain]. Andrew Neil asked Actor Man about how we could get our way when we're in a minority and there's so much QMV and that sort of thing. Actor Man immediately [literally] turned to Man With A Brain and said "Over to you."

    Edited extra bit: princes*.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,738
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. kle4, that's possible, although the Lib Dems are trading the certainty of making themselves look duplicitous for the possibility of gaining more voters than they put off [of course, they may have reached the conclusion that their trustworthiness is low enough that they can only make net gains].

    That's quite a few polls on Wednesday. I hope they don't all come at once.

    My ELBOW's gonna get a little sore :)
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    YouGov poll people's voting intention to update their nowcast, not just for their opinion polls.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    SWINGS ANALYSIS: ENGLAND & WALES ONLY

    If CON % - LAB % = 2.25%, then seats won by each party in E & W will be equal according to UNS.

    Just add your Scottish numbers separately.
  • PlatoPlato Posts: 15,724
    Me too - actually, my 4th IIRC
    Steven_Whaley said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    Dair said:

    Just completed a panelbase survey which appears to be specifically for Scottish VI. Possible Scottish Eve of poll from them.

    What a tiny pond the online pollsters are fishing in. Given the population size being polled at all should be a blue moon, black swan event, not something that happens twice in the first 14 posts in a thread (one of them "again").

    Sunil's proposed thread is well overdue.
    I've just done a YouGov voting intention poll too. It's my third one since the election campaign began.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,866
    Dr. Prasannan, I'm laying off exercise this week. Half of my joints are a shade troubled [not serious, but better safe than ruined].
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,738
    DecrepitJohnL said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Sunil Prasannan ‏@Sunil_P2 10s10 seconds ago

    Just got a hand-delivered leaflet through through door from @LeeScott - half of it is Tamil - but we don't speak Tamil! #IlfordNorth

    A shocking indictment of Gove's cuts to foreign language lessons.
    My mum and dad speak Malayalam, related to Tamil, but not mutually intelligible (and completely different alphabet!).

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malayalam
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Do Tuesday night polls for Wednesday newspapers come in that list as Tuesday or Wednesday releases?
  • GeoffHGeoffH Posts: 56
    Neil said:

    GeoffH said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Sandpit said:

    Yorkcity said:

    Does it help Nick Clegg, to get his private conversation leaked with David Cameron, saying that the PM told him, he can not win a majority ?

    First story on the 1PM BBC NEWS.

    I would have thought not.

    This and the Danny Alexander stuff from last week just underline a massive lack of trust in the LDs. Surely there was a formal meeting before the campaign where everyone agreed that what went on in government should stay in government (for 30 years anyway)?
    I agree , I do not like it,especially if if the leak has been officially authorised by Clegg.
    I hope Cameron does not feel the need to retaliate and leak other private conversations.
    This is a particularly shabby piece of LibDem politicking.

    By using the word, 'private', it is impossible for Cameron to respond. It may also be a lie; no such 'private' conversation took place and Cameron, again, is in an impossible position.

    If he say's, 'No' to either the proposition of the conversation, then it simply invites the Many Rice Davis response.

    I doubt any such conversation took place. I doubt Cameron every vouchsafed such an idea and that this is a deliberate LibDem lie.
    You're making a strong case for it being a particularly effective piece of Lib Dem politicking.

    Shabby was the word I used. If you think that lying about supposed 'private conversations' with a former political partner and current opponent is a particularly 'effective' piece of politicking then we really are very close to the bottom of the barrel.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited May 2015
    MikeK said:

    The segregated, largely muslim audience for a Labour rally, has finaly made it to the BBC via the underhand and unlikely rout of the Daily Politics:

    Segregated audience

    Daily Politics
    BBC Two
    Posted at 13:28
    Labour's shadow health minister Luciana Berger has been asked on BBC Two's Daily Politics about an event which was held at the weekend in which audience members were segregated according to their gender- with women sat on one side of the room and men on the other.

    Pictures of the event in Birmingham have been posted on Twitter.

    Asked if she was comfortable with segregated audiences she said: "It depends where these events are happening, and the context in which it occurred."

    The Daily Express have also reported on the issue, click here for their story.

    However, not many people will notice it as it's buried in the BBC Election Live blog.

    Did they mention for purposes of balance the Round Table meeting only for Men and attended only by Tories, UKIP and the Lib Dems ?
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,056
    Don't people ever learn that these sort of nasty personal attacks on people simply for having the temerity to support Labour are totally counter productive. Cameron must sit with his head in his hands when he looks at what some of his "supporters" say. And yes, all parties have some nasty vindictive supporters but the polls tell us that the Tories are the ones who lose votes because of it and rightly so. I may be old-fashioned but the attempts to demean Delia Smith, for example, I find quite tasteless.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,738
    MikeK said:

    The segregated, largely muslim audience for a Labour rally, has finaly made it to the BBC via the underhand and unlikely rout of the Daily Politics:

    Segregated audience

    Daily Politics
    BBC Two
    Posted at 13:28
    Labour's shadow health minister Luciana Berger has been asked on BBC Two's Daily Politics about an event which was held at the weekend in which audience members were segregated according to their gender- with women sat on one side of the room and men on the other.

    Pictures of the event in Birmingham have been posted on Twitter.

    Asked if she was comfortable with segregated audiences she said: "It depends where these events are happening, and the context in which it occurred."

    The Daily Express have also reported on the issue, click here for their story.

    However, not many people will notice it as it's buried in the BBC Election Live blog.

    "South Asian cultures are institutionally sexist - discuss!"
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    GeoffH said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Steven_Whaley said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    Dair said:

    Just completed a panelbase survey which appears to be specifically for Scottish VI. Possible Scottish Eve of poll from them.

    What a tiny pond the online pollsters are fishing in. Given the population size being polled at all should be a blue moon, black swan event, not something that happens twice in the first 14 posts in a thread (one of them "again").

    Sunil's proposed thread is well overdue.
    I've just done a YouGov voting intention poll too. It's my third one since the election campaign began.

    I have done 3 too.
    I have just completed my sixth.

    This is, I think, a problem with daily online polls. Has there been any research into the concept of 'survey fatigue'?

    Repetaedlt polling the same small band of respondents may severly distort the results.

    The only change I have been able to record in the six I have done is to become ever more emphatic in my answers where that is possible.
    I stopped doing them because there were so many and so tedious. I also do not see how they can avoid being packed full of tribalists and political nerds both of which groups do not resemble remotely the average jo!
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    Mikkil ‏@MikkiL 12m12 minutes ago
    Labour Candidate Grimsby model and political hopeful jailed after £100,000 festival scam http://ln.is/co.uk/NXPKK not on @BBCnews #bias again
  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,388
    My view of the campaigns ...

    Tories - Steady as she goes, and here's a few goodies to be going on with.
    Labour - Whatever you want, we'll do, and we'll save the NHS.
    LDs - We'll stop the others being such bastards.
    SNP - We're in charge.
    Ukip - Hello, we're still here, you know.
    Greens - We're bonkers but cuddly.
    Russell Brand - I'm bonkers but not cuddly.


    Yawn, yawn
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Sunil Prasannan ‏@Sunil_P2 10s10 seconds ago

    Just got a hand-delivered leaflet through through door from @LeeScott - half of it is Tamil - but we don't speak Tamil! #IlfordNorth

    A shocking indictment of Gove's cuts to foreign language lessons.
    My mum and dad speak Malayalam, related to Tamil, but not mutually intelligible (and completely different alphabet!).

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malayalam
    I am sure I have read in the past that you have said you were from Tamil Nadu.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 7,098
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. kle4, that's possible, although the Lib Dems are trading the certainty of making themselves look duplicitous for the possibility of gaining more voters than they put off [of course, they may have reached the conclusion that their trustworthiness is low enough that they can only make net gains].

    That's quite a few polls on Wednesday. I hope they don't all come at once.

    My ELBOW's gonna get a little sore :)
    You're in a better position than JackW in that respect :-0

  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    "UKIP 'going to win Falkirk'"
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/election-2015-32572375

    I might put the house on that.... or not
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    UKIP ‏@UKIP 2h2 hours ago
    LISTEN: @Nigel_Farage's challenge to the Labour Party and @LiamByrneMP today: https://soundcloud.com/ukip-1/nigel-farage-challenges-labour-over-segregated-meeting …
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Received 2 pieces of UKIP literature up here in Bishop Auckland. No others.

    1st one was personal from the client - the second one was 100 reasons to vote UKIP (saying only UKIP can win here and keep Miliband and Salmond out of power) (Labour safeish seat)
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,056
    felix said:

    GeoffH said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Steven_Whaley said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    Dair said:

    Just completed a panelbase survey which appears to be specifically for Scottish VI. Possible Scottish Eve of poll from them.

    What a tiny pond the online pollsters are fishing in. Given the population size being polled at all should be a blue moon, black swan event, not something that happens twice in the first 14 posts in a thread (one of them "again").

    Sunil's proposed thread is well overdue.
    I've just done a YouGov voting intention poll too. It's my third one since the election campaign began.

    I have done 3 too.
    I have just completed my sixth.

    This is, I think, a problem with daily online polls. Has there been any research into the concept of 'survey fatigue'?

    Repetaedlt polling the same small band of respondents may severly distort the results.

    The only change I have been able to record in the six I have done is to become ever more emphatic in my answers where that is possible.
    I stopped doing them because there were so many and so tedious. I also do not see how they can avoid being packed full of tribalists and political nerds both of which groups do not resemble remotely the average jo!
    If online polls are all as useless as some are trying to have us believe do you not think that they would have lost all credibility by now and the companies concerned might have changed their methodology
  • dugarbandierdugarbandier Posts: 2,596
    edited May 2015
    all you fellows bemoaning the repeated polling of political nerds for yougov - you could do your bit to improve them by resigning from the panel :)
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,738
    foxinsoxuk said:

    AndyJS said:

    FPT:

    3plumloot said:

    WOW - just looked it up - in 2010 SPIN underestimated Labour by 40 seats.

    Can't believe it was that wrong.

    That's mainly because the Labour share and vote didn't match up in the way that it had in previous elections.

    1983: 28%, 209 seats
    1987: 32%, 229 seats
    1992: 35%, 271 seats

    Labour got 29.7% in 2010 so you'd have expected them to get about 215 seats based on past experience.
    I remember it being said in the eighties that FPTP favoured the Cons. It seems to have shifted, though the 2.5% of the Labour share that will gain a handful of Scottish seats may significantly compensate for this.
    Thing started to move for the LibDems after 1992.

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/472020868504489984
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    surbiton said:

    MikeK said:

    The segregated, largely muslim audience for a Labour rally, has finaly made it to the BBC via the underhand and unlikely rout of the Daily Politics:

    Segregated audience

    Daily Politics
    BBC Two
    Posted at 13:28
    Labour's shadow health minister Luciana Berger has been asked on BBC Two's Daily Politics about an event which was held at the weekend in which audience members were segregated according to their gender- with women sat on one side of the room and men on the other.

    Pictures of the event in Birmingham have been posted on Twitter.

    Asked if she was comfortable with segregated audiences she said: "It depends where these events are happening, and the context in which it occurred."

    The Daily Express have also reported on the issue, click here for their story.

    However, not many people will notice it as it's buried in the BBC Election Live blog.

    Did they mention for purposes of balance the Round Table meeting only for Men and attended only by Tories, UKIP and the Lib Dems ?
    Christ you really are getting desperate. I believe you think Labour might not win. :)
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 7,098
    edited May 2015
    surbiton said:

    MikeK said:

    The segregated, largely muslim audience for a Labour rally, has finaly made it to the BBC via the underhand and unlikely rout of the Daily Politics:

    Segregated audience

    Daily Politics
    BBC Two
    Posted at 13:28
    Labour's shadow health minister Luciana Berger has been asked on BBC Two's Daily Politics about an event which was held at the weekend in which audience members were segregated according to their gender- with women sat on one side of the room and men on the other.

    Pictures of the event in Birmingham have been posted on Twitter.

    Asked if she was comfortable with segregated audiences she said: "It depends where these events are happening, and the context in which it occurred."

    The Daily Express have also reported on the issue, click here for their story.

    However, not many people will notice it as it's buried in the BBC Election Live blog.

    Did they mention for purposes of balance the Round Table meeting only for Men and attended only by Tories, UKIP and the Lib Dems ?
    Round Table is, I believe, a voluntary organisation for men. Had they been at a WI meeting the audience would have probably been all women.

    Personally I have never understood why I would want to be a member of an organisation that excluded the other gender, but clearly some people find it appropriate.

    I think the question to be asked is: was the Brum event in a mosque, or hosted by a mosque or Muslim religious organisation? If so there is a good argument for saying the Labour politicos were guests and therefore it was down to the mores of their hosts. However, if this is a Labour party event, run for, by and on behalf of the Labour party I think it's a different matter.

  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    AndyJS said:

    FPT:

    3plumloot said:

    WOW - just looked it up - in 2010 SPIN underestimated Labour by 40 seats.

    Can't believe it was that wrong.

    That's mainly because the Labour share and vote didn't match up in the way that it had in previous elections.

    1983: 28%, 209 seats
    1987: 32%, 229 seats
    1992: 35%, 271 seats

    Labour got 29.7% in 2010 so you'd have expected them to get about 215 seats based on past experience.
    But SPIN numbers are not determined by Analysts. It is punters money which decides the spread. More like Tory punters !
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,056
    LadyBucket said:

    The last two days of this GE campaign are going to seem like two weeks, it is all getting a bit scratchy. which I suspect will just put more people off voting.

    It seems what story leads the news headlines these days, is unsubstantiated twitter gossip.

    What a duplicitous lot the Lib Dems are, I wouldn't spit on them if they were on fire.

    I'm sick to death of millionaire 'luvvies' like Delia Smith and Brand telling me how to vote.

    Presumably it's OK for Murdoch and the Barclay Brothers to do so? At least the "luvvies" live here!
  • EastwingerEastwinger Posts: 356
    surbiton said:

    SWINGS ANALYSIS: ENGLAND & WALES ONLY

    If CON % - LAB % = 2.25%, then seats won by each party in E & W will be equal according to UNS.

    Just add your Scottish numbers separately.

    Lots of money to be made on SPIN then?

  • isamisam Posts: 42,398
    Nige and I disagree on the effect of Russell's Brand supporting Ed

    Hope he is right

    Darren McCaffrey (@DMcCaffreySKY)
    04/05/2015 14:31
    WATCH: @Nigel_Farage on @rustyrockets 'I wouldn't want his support... I've met him.' pic.twitter.com/vpLEPQjCbS
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Wonder where all the criticism is for Cancer Research UK's women-only Race For Life event.

    Where are we drawing the line on gender segregation?
  • Flightpath1Flightpath1 Posts: 207
    ''The East Dumbartonshire Star; the Plymouth and Southsea Express; The Herald; The Oxford Observer.
    To voters, these sound like plausible local newspapers. So when they read headlines like "Jo Swinson set to win" and "Gerald Vernon-Jackson set to win!" it has an impact.
    But, of course, these are not independent newspapers. They are Liberal Democrat leaflets dressed up as papers to make them more convincing.''
    (from BBC)

    Thats LD campaigning for you.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    surbiton said:

    SWINGS ANALYSIS: ENGLAND & WALES ONLY

    If CON % - LAB % = 2.25%, then seats won by each party in E & W will be equal according to UNS.

    Just add your Scottish numbers separately.

    Proof that UNS won't operate in England & Wales can be given by considering this question:

    Is the swing in places like Manchester, Sheffield, London, Liverpool, etc. going to be larger than average for England & Wales? Answer: yes. Therefore no UNS.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,738
    edited May 2015
    surbiton said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    DecrepitJohnL said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    Sunil Prasannan ‏@Sunil_P2 10s10 seconds ago

    Just got a hand-delivered leaflet through through door from @LeeScott - half of it is Tamil - but we don't speak Tamil! #IlfordNorth

    A shocking indictment of Gove's cuts to foreign language lessons.
    My mum and dad speak Malayalam, related to Tamil, but not mutually intelligible (and completely different alphabet!).

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Malayalam
    I am sure I have read in the past that you have said you were from Tamil Nadu.
    Well you mis-remembered. Kerala's on the southwest coast of India, not SE.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kerala
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    AndyJS said:

    FPT:

    3plumloot said:

    WOW - just looked it up - in 2010 SPIN underestimated Labour by 40 seats.

    Can't believe it was that wrong.

    That's mainly because the Labour share and vote didn't match up in the way that it had in previous elections.

    1983: 28%, 209 seats
    1987: 32%, 229 seats
    1992: 35%, 271 seats

    Labour got 29.7% in 2010 so you'd have expected them to get about 215 seats based on past experience.
    I remember it being said in the eighties that FPTP favoured the Cons. It seems to have shifted, though the 2.5% of the Labour share that will gain a handful of Scottish seats may significantly compensate for this.
    Thing started to move for the LibDems after 1992.

    https://twitter.com/Sunil_P2/status/472020868504489984
    Guess what? Both bars will be down by more than half.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    MikeK said:

    Mikkil ‏@MikkiL 12m12 minutes ago
    Labour Candidate Grimsby model and political hopeful jailed after £100,000 festival scam http://ln.is/co.uk/NXPKK not on @BBCnews #bias again

    It made the Grimsby Telegraph (your link) two days ago, since when it has been picked up by precisely no national news media, which kind of implies the collective editorial judgement of said media is that this is not, in fact, a story of any significance or interest.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,866
    Mr. Thompson, there was a story in the Mail about a week ago of a man being refused entry [by himself] to some sort of falconry place. Some, but not all, of the events were aimed at kids, and apparently that was the reason for his exclusion.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    OllyT said:

    felix said:

    GeoffH said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Steven_Whaley said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    Dair said:

    Just completed a panelbase survey which appears to be specifically for Scottish VI. Possible Scottish Eve of poll from them.

    What a tiny pond the online pollsters are fishing in. Given the population size being polled at all should be a blue moon, black swan event, not something that happens twice in the first 14 posts in a thread (one of them "again").

    Sunil's proposed thread is well overdue.
    I've just done a YouGov voting intention poll too. It's my third one since the election campaign began.

    I have done 3 too.
    I have just completed my sixth.

    This is, I think, a problem with daily online polls. Has there been any research into the concept of 'survey fatigue'?

    Repetaedlt polling the same small band of respondents may severly distort the results.

    The only change I have been able to record in the six I have done is to become ever more emphatic in my answers where that is possible.
    I stopped doing them because there were so many and so tedious. I also do not see how they can avoid being packed full of tribalists and political nerds both of which groups do not resemble remotely the average jo!
    If online polls are all as useless as some are trying to have us believe do you not think that they would have lost all credibility by now and the companies concerned might have changed their methodology
    Credibility has gone, methodology changes presumably in the pipeline pending how things look on Friday?

    I don't want to add to your rattlement, but this is really not a partisan point. You have two sets of polls, phone and online, giving differing readings. One set self-confessedly breaks the very, very, very first rule of polling which is: select a RANDOM sample. The other doesn't. Which set do you go with?
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 7,098
    Flightpath1 said:

    ''The East Dumbartonshire Star; the Plymouth and Southsea Express; The Herald; The Oxford Observer.
    To voters, these sound like plausible local newspapers. So when they read headlines like "Jo Swinson set to win" and "Gerald Vernon-Jackson set to win!" it has an impact.
    But, of course, these are not independent newspapers. They are Liberal Democrat leaflets dressed up as papers to make them more convincing.''
    (from BBC)

    Thats LD campaigning for you.

    Not really worth making up local newspapers when they will generally print what you like as long as you provide the copy and the photo and they don't have to do any work. My local paper regularly publishes pictures of a local Lib Dem councillor peering into a pothole.

  • GeoffHGeoffH Posts: 56
    OllyT said:

    felix said:

    GeoffH said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Steven_Whaley said:

    Ishmael_X said:































    Dair said:

    Just completed a panelbase survey which appears to be specifically for Scottish VI. Possible Scottish Eve of poll from them.

    What a tiny pond the online pollsters are fishing in. Given the population size being polled at all should be a blue moon, black swan event, not something that happens twice in the first 14 posts in a thread (one of them "again").

    Sunil's proposed thread is well overdue.
    I've just done a YouGov voting intention poll too. It's my third one since the election campaign began.

    I have done 3 too.
    I have just completed my sixth.

    This is, I think, a problem with daily online polls. Has there been any research into the concept of 'survey fatigue'?

    Repetaedlt polling the same small band of respondents may severly distort the results.

    The only change I have been able to record in the six I have done is to become ever more emphatic in my answers where that is possible.
    I stopped doing them because there were so many and so tedious. I also do not see how they can avoid being packed full of tribalists and political nerds both of which groups do not resemble remotely the average jo!
    If online polls are all as useless as some are trying to have us believe do you not think that they would have lost all credibility by now and the companies concerned might have changed their methodology
    I'm not saying that are necessarily useless. Just questioning whether by repeatedly asking the same people over a very short time frame they are optimal in value.

    By contrast, phone polling will rarely question the same individuals twice in a GE period.

    But then every time I'm asked that's another 50p in the pot.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,267
    edited May 2015
    OllyT said:

    felix said:

    GeoffH said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Steven_Whaley said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    Dair said:

    Just completed a panelbase survey which appears to be specifically for Scottish VI. Possible Scottish Eve of poll from them.

    What a tiny pond the online pollsters are fishing in. Given the population size being polled at all should be a blue moon, black swan event, not something that happens twice in the first 14 posts in a thread (one of them "again").

    Sunil's proposed thread is well overdue.
    I've just done a YouGov voting intention poll too. It's my third one since the election campaign began.

    I have done 3 too.
    I have just completed my sixth.

    This is, I think, a problem with daily online polls. Has there been any research into the concept of 'survey fatigue'?

    Repetaedlt polling the same small band of respondents may severly distort the results.

    The only change I have been able to record in the six I have done is to become ever more emphatic in my answers where that is possible.
    I stopped doing them because there were so many and so tedious. I also do not see how they can avoid being packed full of tribalists and political nerds both of which groups do not resemble remotely the average jo!
    If online polls are all as useless as some are trying to have us believe do you not think that they would have lost all credibility by now and the companies concerned might have changed their methodology
    Because in the past there hasn't been much of a difference between the two types of polling. However this time one type is showing a 2.79 Con lead and the other a 0.88 Lab lead (3.67% difference). Clearly one type is wrong. Since online polls have self-selecting samples and phone ones are random samples it makes sense to go with the one which doesn't break the first rule of polling.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,943
    Who is BMG?
  • botanically_speakingbotanically_speaking Posts: 87
    GeoffH said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Steven_Whaley said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    Dair said:

    Just completed a panelbase survey which appears to be specifically for Scottish VI. Possible Scottish Eve of poll from them.

    What a tiny pond the online pollsters are fishing in. Given the population size being polled at all should be a blue moon, black swan event, not something that happens twice in the first 14 posts in a thread (one of them "again").

    Sunil's proposed thread is well overdue.
    I've just done a YouGov voting intention poll too. It's my third one since the election campaign began.

    I have done 3 too.
    I have just completed my sixth.

    I can't help thinking IshmaelX rested his case too early.

This discussion has been closed.

© Vanilla Keystone Theme 2025