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  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486

    IOS said:

    If you can't be rich and support socialism can you not be poor and support conservatism?

    Nothing to do with that...Can't bang on about Amazon and Google being tax dodgers and scum of the earth, then say BTW my new movie wovie is available on erhh Amazon...and my YouTube channel that I constantly plug and is a nice revenue stream errh owned by Google...

    And up the workers, Tory scum don't know what it is like being driven around in their chauffeur driven cars....while filming this for his YouTube channel from the back of....a chauffeur driven car that takes him everywhere.
    Must be convenient having an ideology whose morality extends so far as "do whatever you like so long as it's legal*- greed is good!"
    Makes it easy to criticise Brand as a hypocrite for sure!

    *unless the law you're breaking relates to motor cars
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    Pulpstar said:

    It'd be funny as hell if CLegg went behind when named. But I suspect the name "Nicholas Clegg" gives him 2 or 3% from EVERYWHERE, not just specifically Tactical Tories.

    I'm really hoping the Libs are a couple points behind on the first poll and 10 points behind when Clegg is named.
  • Ishmael_XIshmael_X Posts: 3,664
    OllyT said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    OllyT said:

    felix said:

    GeoffH said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    Dair said:

    Just completed a panelbase survey which appears to be specifically for Scottish VI. Possible Scottish Eve of poll from them.

    What a tiny pond the online pollsters are fishing in. Given the population size being polled at all should be a blue moon, black swan event, not something that happens twice in the first 14 posts in a thread (one of them "again").

    Sunil's proposed thread is well overdue.
    I've just done a YouGov voting intention poll too. It's my third one since the election campaign began.

    I have done 3 too.
    I have just completed my sixth.

    This is, I think, a problem with daily online polls. Has there been any research into the concept of 'survey fatigue'?

    Repetaedlt polling the same small band of respondents may severly distort the results.

    The only change I have been able to record in the six I have done is to become ever more emphatic in my answers where that is possible.
    I stopped doing them because there were so many and so tedious. I also do not see how they can avoid being packed full of tribalists and political nerds both of which groups do not resemble remotely the average jo!
    If online polls are all as useless as some are trying to have us believe do you not think that they would have lost all credibility by now and the companies concerned might have changed their methodology
    Credibility has gone, methodology changes presumably in the pipeline pending how things look on Friday?

    I don't want to add to your rattlement, but this is really not a partisan point. You have two sets of polls, phone and online, giving differing readings. One set self-confessedly breaks the very, very, very first rule of polling which is: select a RANDOM sample. The other doesn't. Which set do you go with?
    You have no more idea than I do whether the phone or online polls are more accurate - I am 100% certain that if the online polls had the biggest lead for the Tories you would be rubbishing the phone polls.
    I have a very clear idea as to which are inherently likely to be more accurate, based on wholly objective criteria which I have explained to you in what I think are sufficiently clear terms. If you think I might be wrong I'd love to have a conversation about it. At the moment all I'm hearing from you is "I am clueless and rattled".
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417
    Dair said:

    Pulpstar said:

    It'd be funny as hell if CLegg went behind when named. But I suspect the name "Nicholas Clegg" gives him 2 or 3% from EVERYWHERE, not just specifically Tactical Tories.

    I'm really hoping the Libs are a couple points behind on the first poll and 10 points behind when Clegg is named.
    It would be quite funny indeed, though I'd have to back Labour quickly at the bookies.

    I suspect it isn't the case though :)
  • Stark_DawningStark_Dawning Posts: 9,714
    Carnyx said:

    malcolmg said:

    calum said:

    malcolmg said:

    BBC reporting that Jim Murphy is campaigning in Glasgow with comedian Eddie Izzard..!

    Hmmm. - Not the luckiest talisman I’d have thought.

    getting a real barracking as well , and whinging that it must be the SNP, what a plank.
    As I'm following various BT hacks and supporters my Twitter went into a BT Project Fear Meltdown when Jim and Eddie were shouted at by 4 protestors. Having tracked down the footage as far as I can tell the main pushing and shoving was being done by SLAB activists, who were manhandling some chap with a loudhailer:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-32580153

    All I can say is before Twittering condemnation of violence on the streets of Glasgow best to view the evidence first, I guess the BT/MSM mantra of why let the facts get in the way of a story is alive and well.

    These guys have obviously never been on a night out in Glasgow or better still attended an Orange Lodge march, then they could form a better view of what constitutes violence on the streets of Glasgow.
    Murphy will try anything , you can guarantee it was stage managed. Murphy and his fake crowd as usual.
    https://twitter.com/WingsScotland/status/595235989888499712
    'People no really giving a monkeys'.

    Why is it only the Nats who insist on crow-barring the Scottish vernacular into written English at every opportunity? (I bet the author went to a good school and university.) It really is a bit patronizing and naff. I've spent decades corresponding with highly educated and intelligent Scots, and none would ever dream of doing it. Is it a confidence thing?
    Anent that 'no': you really do seem to be in a hurry to find fault with the Caledonians.

    It's actually a typo for 'not' (cut off at the side of the image). Plus he forgot the apostrophe in monkey's.

    if it really were Scots, then 'Fowk who dinna gie a puggie's' would be one possible Scots interpretation (precise assonance and transliteration determined by precise location in the Lowlands).

    As for my own use of 'Anent'- it's a good word - better than 'Re' and shorter than 'Concerning'. The Kirk use it and that's good enough for me.
    Yes, you're right - probably a cut-and-paste malfunction. I apologize profusely to Mr Clerkin. (Moreover, from the footage I've just seen, he can't be accused of being anything other than wholly authentic.)
  • DairDair Posts: 6,108
    edited May 2015
    Yorkcity said:

    Scott_P said:

    @journodave: Scottish politics in a nutshell. (Carl Court/Getty Images) http://t.co/CNZXYaqUcF

    Scott,no wonder some supporters of the Union are shy to say what they believe.
    Nationalism can get violent and ugly .
    Some of them hardly have a civic nationalism ethic.
    I'm not actually certain Clerkin supports Independence, he definitely doesn't support the SNP.

    His main focus is being anti-SLAB who he blames for most of the housing problems in Glasgow (which is how he started - as a housing protestor). During the last Labour/Liberal coalition 2003-2007, 6 social houses were built in the whole of scotland.

    Not 600. Not 6000. SIX. 1.5 per annum.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,968
    Mr. Freggles, not sure "Enjoy freedom, obey the law" is all that bad a code to live by.
  • GeoffHGeoffH Posts: 56

    Scott_P said:

    Alistair said:

    Sean Clerkin, professional nutter. He keeps being "tipped off" as to where Murphy is going to turn up. I suspect Murphy is hoping for another egg.

    This is genius

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wpVJK_LtETo
    Guy with the camera sounds an aggressive c*nt.
    Takes a lot to make me sympathetic to the Labour Party but this SNP t*ss*r achieves it.
  • ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    This was Hallam/Survation in Jan this year (for background):
    LAB 33% (+17), LD 23% (-30), CON 22% (-2), GREEN 12% (+10), UKIP 9% (+7)
    Wonder how much has changed.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 63,657

    I'm guessing that the Sheffield Hallam poll will show either Clegg or the Labour guy very slightly ahead.
    We'll have howls of "He's lost"/"He made it", depending on which way round it is, if so. Most people will assume that it's actually too close to call.

    If, however, it really is "interesting", one or the other will be 10+ ahead. And we'll wonder if it being on a Bank Holiday weekend might have influenced it.

    Ah, I'm finally all polled out. It's somewhere between a 2 point Labour lead and a 4 point Tory lead, probably a thin Tory lead. UKIP have faded somewhat but aren't defunct. The Lib Dems are just under 10 percent and the Greens didn't break through.

    There may or may not be incumbency bonuses; there may or may not be a late swing in either direction. Neither is likely to be irrefutably shown in polls. We've very probably got all the data we're going to get until the exit poll - which will, itself be more uncertain than ever.

    Very good comments - this election more than any other is wholly unpredictable and everyone's just going to have to wait until Friday morning - then the speculation can begin in the full knowledge of the result
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417
    Survation methodology, CLegg not named...
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417
    South Belfast; Sheffield Hallam; BRS are 3 very important non Lab-Con battles to the next Gov't. Leeds NW too.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533
    edited May 2015

    Scott_P said:

    Alistair said:

    Sean Clerkin, professional nutter. He keeps being "tipped off" as to where Murphy is going to turn up. I suspect Murphy is hoping for another egg.

    This is genius

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wpVJK_LtETo
    Guy with the camera sounds an aggressive c*nt.
    What an absolute t*sser. A poundshop Russell Brand. SLAB having to put up with him, I am sure they just want to give him a good old Glasgow kiss.

  • JonCisBackJonCisBack Posts: 911
    I think Labour will win most seats. The Tory trump card, on the economy, has been really quite surprisingly poorly played, and surprisingly well defended by miliband. Also seeing a number of defences of Labour's last go in office on Facebook etc.

    Also there's this from Peston

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-32580249

    The fact it's discussed in apparently studiously impartial terms gives the impression that "Labour overspending" is merely the tory view and "we didn't overspend at all guv" is the Labour view, and that therefore the floating voter can safely assume the truth is somewhere in between. I.e. Labour may have overspent a bit, but really it wasn't that bad.

    The undeniable fact that we had the largest deficit of any major economy during the years 2002-2007 is lost, gone, written off. Move along, nothing to see. Tories claim it, Labour deny it, so voters ignore it as just one more spat amongst the partisan.

    So the "obvious" (to me) conclusion that Labour's record in office last time would surely lock them out of power for a decade or more, is utterly wrong. The electorate don't agree. The mood music is not that way. It's just another campaign tactic by the tories.

    So Labour will "win". The polls are right, 34% each, Lab most seats. sigh
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,968
    No sign as yet of the Miliband interview from Robinson:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/correspondents/nickrobinson

    Still interested in seeing if the headline matches "Would a Tory government create chaos?"
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533

    No sign as yet of the Miliband interview from Robinson:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/correspondents/nickrobinson

    Still interested in seeing if the headline matches "Would a Tory government create chaos?"

    I will go out on a limb and say...erhhhh...no.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,656
    isam said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Also, I think you'll lose the three bets you have with me:

    Cons +6.5% in Rochester
    LibDems under 10%
    LibDems under 8%

    S Thanet not Rochester?

    Rochester bet was straight con win I think
    You're right, as always!

    South Thanet is Cons +6.5%
    Rochester is straight conservative win

    That's four bets I expect to collect on :-)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417
    Labour are unlikely to win the most seats, but Ed Miliband is more likely than Dave to become the next PM. The intersection of the two is about 9-2 I think as there will be some circumstances where Labour could abstain Conservative QS.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    Pulpstar said:

    Survation methodology, CLegg not named...

    I think Sheffield Hallam has one of the most highly educated populations of any constituency in the country. I suspect they all know who their MP is (and that includes the students who live there too).
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,712

    I see Brand has come out and endorsed Labour.

    *Ahem* as I predicted on here last week.

    Actually he's made a general endorsement of anyone placed to stop the Tories (and by implication UKIP) as *I* predicted last week. :)

    Amounts to much the same thing either way ;-)
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,395

    Scott_P said:

    Alistair said:

    Sean Clerkin, professional nutter. He keeps being "tipped off" as to where Murphy is going to turn up. I suspect Murphy is hoping for another egg.

    This is genius

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wpVJK_LtETo
    Guy with the camera sounds an aggressive c*nt.
    What an absolute t*sser. A poundshop Russell Brand. SLAB having to put up with him, I am sure they just want to give him a good old Glasgow kiss.

    Hmm. Some of them love him so much they don't just give him a kiss but tell him where Mr Murphy is going to be. See earlier postings on this trhead.

  • ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    edited May 2015
    I do not know how Labour can get round this, no matter who's spinning it.

    http://www.zakeroo.com/Debt_pre-crash_ONS-via-FraserNelson.png
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417

    Pulpstar said:

    Survation methodology, CLegg not named...

    I think Sheffield Hallam has one of the most highly educated populations of any constituency in the country. I suspect they all know who their MP is (and that includes the students who live there too).
    You'd have thought so - but still "Nick Clegg" will see him ahead I reckon.
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,395
    GeoffH said:

    Scott_P said:

    Alistair said:

    Sean Clerkin, professional nutter. He keeps being "tipped off" as to where Murphy is going to turn up. I suspect Murphy is hoping for another egg.

    This is genius

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wpVJK_LtETo
    Guy with the camera sounds an aggressive c*nt.
    Takes a lot to make me sympathetic to the Labour Party but this SNP t*ss*r achieves it.
    Not SNP - if anything rather the opposite, as all the Scots posters know very well and some are saying today on PB.
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300

    I think Labour will win most seats. The Tory trump card, on the economy, has been really quite surprisingly poorly played, and surprisingly well defended by miliband. Also seeing a number of defences of Labour's last go in office on Facebook etc.

    Also there's this from Peston

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-32580249

    The fact it's discussed in apparently studiously impartial terms gives the impression that "Labour overspending" is merely the tory view and "we didn't overspend at all guv" is the Labour view, and that therefore the floating voter can safely assume the truth is somewhere in between. I.e. Labour may have overspent a bit, but really it wasn't that bad.

    The undeniable fact that we had the largest deficit of any major economy during the years 2002-2007 is lost, gone, written off. Move along, nothing to see. Tories claim it, Labour deny it, so voters ignore it as just one more spat amongst the partisan.

    So the "obvious" (to me) conclusion that Labour's record in office last time would surely lock them out of power for a decade or more, is utterly wrong. The electorate don't agree. The mood music is not that way. It's just another campaign tactic by the tories.

    So Labour will "win". The polls are right, 34% each, Lab most seats. sigh

    Your undeniable fact may be undeniable but does not seem to be true, which is surely an essential property of facts.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820

    No sign as yet of the Miliband interview from Robinson:
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/correspondents/nickrobinson

    Still interested in seeing if the headline matches "Would a Tory government create chaos?"

    I will go out on a limb and say...erhhhh...no.
    Perhaps it's so bad they want to bury bad news.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,712

    Scott_P said:

    Alistair said:

    Sean Clerkin, professional nutter. He keeps being "tipped off" as to where Murphy is going to turn up. I suspect Murphy is hoping for another egg.

    This is genius

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wpVJK_LtETo
    Guy with the camera sounds an aggressive c*nt.
    What an absolute t*sser. A poundshop Russell Brand. SLAB having to put up with him, I am sure they just want to give him a good old Glasgow kiss.

    Is that a deleted scene from The Thick Of It?
  • GeoffHGeoffH Posts: 56
    Back to *that* video from Scotland.

    It's pretty much what Miliband can expect from SNP MPs if he were to need them in government. Constant aggression, loud talk, lots of "keep your hands off me" and all of in Downing Street and the corridors of the HoC.

    Not an attractive prospect.


    I
  • GeoffHGeoffH Posts: 56
    Carnyx said:

    GeoffH said:

    Scott_P said:

    Alistair said:

    Sean Clerkin, professional nutter. He keeps being "tipped off" as to where Murphy is going to turn up. I suspect Murphy is hoping for another egg.

    This is genius

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wpVJK_LtETo
    Guy with the camera sounds an aggressive c*nt.
    Takes a lot to make me sympathetic to the Labour Party but this SNP t*ss*r achieves it.
    Not SNP - if anything rather the opposite, as all the Scots posters know very well and some are saying today on PB.
    OK delete *SNP*. Doesn't alter the sentiment.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417
    When's this poll coming out !

    Getting late for "this afternoon"...
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    edited May 2015
    Prodicus said:

    I do not know how Labour can get round this, no matter who's spinning it.

    http://www.zakeroo.com/Debt_pre-crash_ONS-via-FraserNelson.png

    Rebase against GDP and extend back to Mrs T and forward to smiling George Osborne, current British record holder for debt.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited May 2015
    Prodicus said:

    I do not know how Labour can get round this, no matter who's spinning it.

    http://www.zakeroo.com/Debt_pre-crash_ONS-via-FraserNelson.png

    So from £350bn to £600bn in 13 years. These are nominal figures.

    Hardly worth thinking about.

    So Labour in 13 years added £ 250bn. How much did the Tories add in 5 years ?
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,395
    GeoffH said:

    Carnyx said:

    GeoffH said:

    Scott_P said:

    Alistair said:

    Sean Clerkin, professional nutter. He keeps being "tipped off" as to where Murphy is going to turn up. I suspect Murphy is hoping for another egg.

    This is genius

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wpVJK_LtETo
    Guy with the camera sounds an aggressive c*nt.
    Takes a lot to make me sympathetic to the Labour Party but this SNP t*ss*r achieves it.
    Not SNP - if anything rather the opposite, as all the Scots posters know very well and some are saying today on PB.
    OK delete *SNP*. Doesn't alter the sentiment.
    And if you know that it was Labour members from mr Murphy's branch who keep him informed as to where Mr Murphy is?

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,968
    Mr. L, your point on Thatcher seems fair. Extending it forward does rather forget the crippling deficit Labour left, and their shrieking every time it was cut by draconian measures (such as limiting annual benefits to a measly £26,000).
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,533

    Scott_P said:

    Alistair said:

    Sean Clerkin, professional nutter. He keeps being "tipped off" as to where Murphy is going to turn up. I suspect Murphy is hoping for another egg.

    This is genius

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wpVJK_LtETo
    Guy with the camera sounds an aggressive c*nt.
    What an absolute t*sser. A poundshop Russell Brand. SLAB having to put up with him, I am sure they just want to give him a good old Glasgow kiss.

    Is that a deleted scene from The Thick Of It?
    No, but this is...

    http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2015/05/04/00/283E58AE00000578-0-Mr_Miliband_ordered_the_huge_stone_monument_to_be_created_despit-a-9_1430696386310.jpg

    Oh no wait...sorry wrong link...

    http://usvsth3m.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/07/YAS19lX.png
  • Pulpstar said:

    Who else is heading to the Finborough for the evening btw ?

    I fear it's in danger of becoming a damp squib ...... it was announced too late and really hasn't been promoted as it might have been and it's now probably too late. Most people will have made their own arrangements for GE night.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited May 2015
    Pulpstar said:

    Labour are unlikely to win the most seats, but Ed Miliband is more likely than Dave to become the next PM. The intersection of the two is about 9-2 I think as there will be some circumstances where Labour could abstain Conservative QS.

    I would like to see more England only or E&W polls. Remember if the Tory lead is 2.5%, the two parties are equal in E&W.

    If Tory lead is less than that, Labour is the largest party.
  • ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    edited May 2015
    Yeah, yeah... all things are relative. Not. But the political/electioneering point is that Lab leadership keeps blaming the 'crash' for public debt. This was the Brown spend-up in the short term, before the crash.
  • GeoffHGeoffH Posts: 56
    Carnyx said:

    GeoffH said:

    Carnyx said:

    GeoffH said:

    Scott_P said:

    Alistair said:

    Sean Clerkin, professional nutter. He keeps being "tipped off" as to where Murphy is going to turn up. I suspect Murphy is hoping for another egg.

    This is genius

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wpVJK_LtETo
    Guy with the camera sounds an aggressive c*nt.
    Takes a lot to make me sympathetic to the Labour Party but this SNP t*ss*r achieves it.
    Not SNP - if anything rather the opposite, as all the Scots posters know very well and some are saying today on PB.
    OK delete *SNP*. Doesn't alter the sentiment.
    And if you know that it was Labour members from mr Murphy's branch who keep him informed as to where Mr Murphy is?

    Makes no odds. He's not obliged to behave in such an aggressive and insulting manner to stewards.
  • ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    And I agree George O has much to answer for, but look at the cards he was dealt and compare with those Brown was dealt.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331

    Pulpstar said:

    Who else is heading to the Finborough for the evening btw ?

    I fear it's in danger of becoming a damp squib ...... it was announced too late and really hasn't been promoted as it might have been and it's now probably too late. Most people will have made their own arrangements for GE night.
    I was thinking of it. However, I've an important job interview on Friday morning. So I'm going to have to go to bed after the exit poll comes up - then up for Today at 6.00 am. It will be the first time since 1979 that I haven't sat up all night for the results.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    surbiton said:

    Prodicus said:

    I do not know how Labour can get round this, no matter who's spinning it.

    http://www.zakeroo.com/Debt_pre-crash_ONS-via-FraserNelson.png

    So from £350bn to £600bn in 13 years. These are nominal figures.

    Hardly worth thinking about.

    So Labour in 13 years added £ 250bn. How much did the Tories add in 5 years ?
    What does that even matter? I mind that the Tories failed to eliminate the deficit, but Labour said they were cutting too far and too fast, I doubt growth would have so meteoric to make up the difference, so they cannot actually mind that the debt has gone up so much, as that was their plan too.

  • CD13CD13 Posts: 6,366
    edited May 2015
    If Ed does get in, can I do the PR for him? If the deficit increases, we can choose between ...

    (1) It's all for investment and will pay off in the long run, or
    (2) Having seen the books, it was far worse than expected and the Tories were hiding the facts. or
    (3) The Farmer Jones excuse - it's all those nasty foreigners/it would have been worse under the evil Tories.

    If the deficit falls, it's due to our brilliant handling of the economy and those complaining about cuts should be thankful it wasn't the evil Tories.

    Five more years, please.
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @surbiton

    'So Labour in 13 years added £ 250bn. How much did the Tories add in 5 years ?'

    insignificant that Labour inherited a strong economy in 1997 whereas in 2010 the Tories inherited a trashed economy following the worst recession since the second world war.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,417

    Pulpstar said:

    Who else is heading to the Finborough for the evening btw ?

    I fear it's in danger of becoming a damp squib ...... it was announced too late and really hasn't been promoted as it might have been and it's now probably too late. Most people will have made their own arrangements for GE night.
    Nothing as yet on the Finborough website :/ !
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    edited May 2015
    JEO said:

    Congratulations to Princess Charlotte Elizabeth Diana!

    On May 2nd, the late night News 24 had Yasmin Ali Brown to review the papers who, if she isn't a republican, could not get too excited about the princess. Saying the usual , who would not be happy about the birth of a new baby.

    She then suggested that the Princess should be named Diana after her granny. The newspaper editor sitting next to her said it would not be appropriate and Dickie Arbiter , a Royal sidekick, virtually accused her of "stirring it up". He, in fact, suggested Francis as a compromise.

    Guess what ? William and Kate and the Firm are no fools ! They know their market.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,978
    'Breathtaking' surge of Tory tactical votes to save Nick Clegg in Hallam – poll

    Guardian/ICM findings suggest large-scale tactical voting will rescue Lib Dem leader in his Sheffield constituency

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/may/04/breathtaking-surge-of-tory-tactical-votes-to-save-nick-clegg-in-hallam-poll?CMP=share_btn_tw

  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Prodicus said:

    And I agree George O has much to answer for, but look at the cards he was dealt and compare with those Brown was dealt.

    Electorally, the economic determinant for each voter will be their own micro-economy, and the rest is tractor stats. If zero-hours contracts are welcomed by voters, they'll vote one way,and if they are tools for exploitation and to disguise unemployment, those on them will vote another.

    Technically, Labour's spending before the crash was not excessive against GDP by any international or historic comparison, so even if CCHQ were to argue this, they'd lose. But they won't try because it is electorally pointless.

  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Sean_F said:
    We will see. This will be a scalp !
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    'Breathtaking' surge of Tory tactical votes to save Nick Clegg in Hallam – poll

    Or perhaps this is an 'anti labour' vote?
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006
    felix said:

    OllyT said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    OllyT said:

    felix said:

    GeoffH said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    Dair said:

    Just completed a panelbase survey which appears to be specifically for Scottish VI. Possible Scottish Eve of poll from them.

    What a tiny pond the online pollsters are fishing in. Given the population size being polled at all should be a blue moon, black swan event, not something that happens twice in the first 14 posts in a thread (one of them "again").

    Sunil's proposed thread is well overdue.
    I've just done a YouGov voting intention poll too. It's my third one since the election campaign began.

    I have done 3 too.
    I have just completed my sixth.

    This is, I think, a problem with daily online polls. Has there been any research into the concept of 'survey fatigue'?

    Repetaedlt polling the same small band of respondents may severly distort the results.

    The only change I have been able to record in the six I have done is to become ever more emphatic in my answers where that is possible.
    I stopped doing them because there were so many and so tedious. I also do not see how they can avoid being packed full of tribalists and political nerds both of which groups do not resemble remotely the average jo!
    If online polls are all as useless as some are trying to have us believe do you not think that they would have lost all credibility by now and the companies concerned might have changed their methodology
    Credibility has gone, methodology changes presumably in the pipeline pending how things look on Friday?

    I don't want to add to your rattlement, but this is really not a partisan point. You have two sets of polls, phone and online, giving differing readings. One set self-confessedly breaks the very, very, very first rule of polling which is: select a RANDOM sample. The other doesn't. Which set do you go with?
    You have no more idea than I do whether the phone or online polls are more accurate - I am 100% certain that if the online polls had the biggest lead for the Tories you would be rubbishing the phone polls.
    That says a lot about you and very little about the merits of different polls.
    The merits of the different polls have been widely and intelligently discussed on UKPR when there was a very good article on the subject (April 14th). Most of the criticism of online polls is uninformed rubbish frankly.
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @CD13

    'If the deficit falls, it's due to our brilliant handling of the economy and those complaining about cuts should be thankful it wasn't the evil Tories.'

    Spending items will be moved to 'investment' Labour are great at fiddling the balance sheet.

    Remember Browne ,prudence and the mobile goal posts.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,591
    Not a surprise if he should be saved by Tories. A very high amount of Labour votes for that constituency nonetheless - will it return to form post Clegg/next election?
  • ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    Leader of Conservative Grassroots and Bow Group (B H-Q) now saying vote UKIP where Tories cannot win.
    http://tinyurl.com/nh4les3
  • ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    The '22 will hold a ballot on any proposal for coalition.
  • Chris123Chris123 Posts: 174
    Clegg's 7 points clear in Hallam, but only because of "breathtaking" surge of tactical Tory votes http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/may/04/breathtaking-surge-of-tory-tactical-votes-to-save-nick-clegg-in-hallam-poll
  • PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    Lovin the way some posters below seem certain whats gonna happen. As if.

    Just wonder if Hallamite tories will say their tactically voting for Clegg to pollsters but in the secrecy of the box not do so. Well wouldn't you if you were a tory? Still squeaky bum time for Cleggy but he'll prob do it.

    Nails the Tory-LD second term.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    john_zims said:

    @surbiton

    'So Labour in 13 years added £ 250bn. How much did the Tories add in 5 years ?'

    insignificant that Labour inherited a strong economy in 1997 whereas in 2010 the Tories inherited a trashed economy following the worst recession since the second world war.

    The highest growth in our history. 1997 - 2008.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,721

    Pulpstar said:

    Who else is heading to the Finborough for the evening btw ?

    I fear it's in danger of becoming a damp squib ...... it was announced too late and really hasn't been promoted as it might have been and it's now probably too late. Most people will have made their own arrangements for GE night.
    I was thinking of it. However, I've an important job interview on Friday morning. So I'm going to have to go to bed after the exit poll comes up - then up for Today at 6.00 am. It will be the first time since 1979 that I haven't sat up all night for the results.
    Frustrtating I know, but for you your job interview is far more important than the results of those for 650 other jobs which you haven't applied for!

    Amnd the very of luck on Friday!
  • ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    edited May 2015
    Mr Eagles has tweeted the Clegg graphic: https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/595267769903493120
  • OllyTOllyT Posts: 5,006
    Ishmael_X said:

    OllyT said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    OllyT said:

    felix said:

    GeoffH said:

    Ishmael_X said:

    Dair said:

    Just completed a panelbase survey which appears to be specifically for Scottish VI. Possible Scottish Eve of poll from them.

    What a tiny pond the online pollsters are fishing in. Given the population size being polled at all should be a blue moon, black swan event, not something that happens twice in the first 14 posts in a thread (one of them "again").

    Sunil's proposed thread is well overdue.
    I've just done a YouGov voting intention poll too. It's my third one since the election campaign began.

    I have done 3 too.
    I have just completed my sixth.

    This is, I think, a problem with daily online polls. Has there been any research into the concept of 'survey fatigue'?

    Repetaedlt polling the same small band of respondents may severly distort the results.

    The only change I have been able to record in the six I have done is to become ever more emphatic in my answers where that is possible.
    I stopped doing them because there were so many and so tedious. I also do not see how they can avoid being packed full of tribalists and political nerds both of which groups do not resemble remotely the average jo!
    If online polls are all as useless as some are trying to have us believe do you not think that they would have lost all credibility by now and the companies concerned might have changed their methodology
    Credibility has gone, methodology changes presumably in the pipeline pending how things look on Friday?

    I don't want to add to your rattlement, but this is really not a partisan point. You have two sets of polls, phone and online, giving differing readings. One set self-confessedly breaks the very, very, very first rule of polling which is: select a RANDOM sample. The other doesn't. Which set do you go with?
    You have no more idea than I do whether the phone or online polls are more accurate - I am 100% certain that if the online polls had the biggest lead for the Tories you would be rubbishing the phone polls.
    I have a very clear idea as to which are inherently likely to be more accurate, based on wholly objective criteria which I have explained to you in what I think are sufficiently clear terms. If you think I might be wrong I'd love to have a conversation about it. At the moment all I'm hearing from you is "I am clueless and rattled".
    OK, if you are serious, go onto UKPR and read AW's article ("Phone Polls v Online Polls") on the subject on April 14th.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672
    edited May 2015
    The most important aspect of this ICM poll is that the candidates were specifically named. That is different to the Ashcroft polls and it produces a different result. If that plays out in the same way in other constituencies it could be very good news for both Tory and LibDem MPs in marginal seats; and possibly some SLab MPs, though that I doubt.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,721
    Probably posted before, but where's he most important one of all. the ARSE?
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    edited May 2015
    @Ssurbiton

    'The highest growth in our history. 1997 - 2008.'

    And zero growth from 2005 - 2010 the lowest in our history !
  • Chris123Chris123 Posts: 174
    edited May 2015
    The result contrasts with other recent constituency polls in this prosperous pocket of South Yorkshire, which sprawls out to the west beyond Sheffield into the Peak District.

    These all suggested that Clegg was on course for a narrow defeat at Labour’s hands. Lord Ashcroft, for example, produced a poll last week which put Labour a single point ahead of the Lib Dems, after respondents had been asked to think about their own constituency.

    But Ashcroft did not identify candidates – and the Clegg name seems crucial to drawing extra support from the Conservative fold, in a seat which has been Tory for most of its 130-year history.
    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/may/04/breathtaking-surge-of-tory-tactical-votes-to-save-nick-clegg-in-hallam-poll

    So what can we surmise from that? Camoron would clearly win the election if the ballot papers were marked "David Cameron's candidate" or "Ed Miliband's candidate" instead of "Conservative" or "Labour."
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    Coppard ahead in the raw figures though.

    http://www.scribd.com/doc/264086543/Hallam-BPC-1
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,672

    Lovin the way some posters below seem certain whats gonna happen. As if.

    Just wonder if Hallamite tories will say their tactically voting for Clegg to pollsters but in the secrecy of the box not do so. Well wouldn't you if you were a tory? Still squeaky bum time for Cleggy but he'll prob do it.

    Nails the Tory-LD second term.

    Yep - there is no way that Clegg could lead the LibDems into a deal with Labour. So if that is going to happen he will have to be forced out as leader. And that looks very unlikely.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,032

    'Breathtaking' surge of Tory tactical votes to save Nick Clegg in Hallam – poll

    Guardian/ICM findings suggest large-scale tactical voting will rescue Lib Dem leader in his Sheffield constituency

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/may/04/breathtaking-surge-of-tory-tactical-votes-to-save-nick-clegg-in-hallam-poll?CMP=share_btn_tw

    I just wonder how many of them will have been as irritated as you by the Lib Dems over the last few days with their silly leaks and breaches of confidence and change their minds. I think Nick will hold on but it will be seriously close.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331

    Pulpstar said:

    Who else is heading to the Finborough for the evening btw ?

    I fear it's in danger of becoming a damp squib ...... it was announced too late and really hasn't been promoted as it might have been and it's now probably too late. Most people will have made their own arrangements for GE night.
    I was thinking of it. However, I've an important job interview on Friday morning. So I'm going to have to go to bed after the exit poll comes up - then up for Today at 6.00 am. It will be the first time since 1979 that I haven't sat up all night for the results.
    Frustrtating I know, but for you your job interview is far more important than the results of those for 650 other jobs which you haven't applied for!

    Amnd the very of luck on Friday!
    Thank you
  • ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    Need Clegg, of course, but I do feel sorry for poor Ian Walker.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,712
    Wow. That's an astonishing poll for Sheffield Hallam. Good news for Clegg.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    edited May 2015

    The most important aspect of this ICM poll is that the candidates were specifically named. That is different to the Ashcroft polls and it produces a different result. If that plays out in the same way in other constituencies it could be very good news for both Tory and LibDem MPs in marginal seats.

    Jim Murphy is possibly a comparable example where people could be voting solely for the candidate rather than the party, not picked up by Ashcroft. Applies to a lot of the Lib Dem MPs as well.
  • ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    Wonder if Clegg does gratitude? At all?
  • Pulpstar said:

    Who else is heading to the Finborough for the evening btw ?

    I fear it's in danger of becoming a damp squib ...... it was announced too late and really hasn't been promoted as it might have been and it's now probably too late. Most people will have made their own arrangements for GE night.
    I was thinking of it. However, I've an important job interview on Friday morning. So I'm going to have to go to bed after the exit poll comes up - then up for Today at 6.00 am. It will be the first time since 1979 that I haven't sat up all night for the results.
    Actually that's quite bizarre, not to say selfish, that your interviewer should have arranged to see you on the morning after a General Election. Presumably the individual concerned has absolutely no interest whatever in the outcome, which in its self is not a good sign.
  • PurseybearPurseybear Posts: 766
    Prodicus said:

    Wonder if Clegg does gratitude? At all?

    Who knows how he repays it in the darkened room? ;-)
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830

    Lovin the way some posters below seem certain whats gonna happen. As if.

    Just wonder if Hallamite tories will say their tactically voting for Clegg to pollsters but in the secrecy of the box not do so. Well wouldn't you if you were a tory? Still squeaky bum time for Cleggy but he'll prob do it.

    Nails the Tory-LD second term.

    I think those Tories will vote tactically for Clegg - they know he's their best shot at a Con-Lib coalition. Wouldn't say Clegg getting re-elected for Hallam means that the coalition is 'nailed', by any means though. Looks like both Cameron and Clegg will have to overcome significant antipathy within their party to form another coalition, particularly with the recent antics of the 1922 Committee who just made coalition negotiations extra hard.
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Southam

    When are you taking me out for that meal you owe me?
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,712
    Prodicus said:

    Wonder if Clegg does gratitude? At all?

    It looks like Clegg will be LD leader post-election, now. Given the Tories won't win an overall majority, this news is as good as it gets for Cameron.

    He just needs him to back down on his 'no deals with the DUP' line, now.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,992
    Afternoon all :)

    I suppose one irony which could be drawn from the Sheffield Hallam poll is the fact it was a Conservative seat until the Lib Dems captured it in 1997. The idea of Tories voting tactically to keep the seat Lib Dem won't be lost on anyone.

    Nick's survival is a prerequisite for Coalition 2.0 but it's by no means a done deal even if the numbers are there in the Commons (which is far from certain in my view). I said last night I feared for a potential schism in the LDs if Nick tried to bounce the Party into a second Coalition which would be as disastrous as David Steel's attempt to bounce the SDP and Liberals into merger in the aftermath of the disappointing 1987 outcome.

    Nick may think he can sell the idea of Coalition 2.0 with a couple of speeches but it's going to take a lot more than that and it may be that IF the party rejects the idea of a second Coalition, that will be the end for Nick Clegg as Party Leader. Whether that's the end of him as a Lib Dem as well is of course another question.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Prodicus said:

    Wonder if Clegg does gratitude? At all?

    What gratitude would you expect Clegg to show?
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    The Pollsters Regional Swing Averages
    The South – all Con to Lab
    10.7: Ipsos Mori (six poll average)
    7.1: Survation (last six)
    6.5: Populus (last 6 -excl SW)
    6.0 Yougov (last 10)
    5.9: ICM (last six)
    5.3 Comres (last 6)
    5.0 Ashcroft (last six – excl SW)

    Midlands (incl Wales)
    6.4 Yougov
    4.0 ICM (excl wales)
    3.8 Survation (ex Wales)
    3.8 ICM (incl Wales)
    3.0 Ipsos Mori
    2.8 ICM (Wales Only)
    2.8 Populus (excl Wales)
    2.1 Ashcroft (excl wales)
    0.5 Yougov (wales Only)
    -1.3 Comres
    -1.9 Survation (Wales only)
    - 2.0 Opinium (Wales Only)

    North
    3.6 Comres
    3.6 ICM
    3.4 Yougov
    3.4 Ipsos Mori
    2.8 Populus
    2.1 Survation
    -0.7 Ashcroft
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Leader of Conservative Grassroots and Bow Group (B H-Q) now saying vote UKIP where Tories cannot win.

    Are we seeing an anti-labour vote made flesh?
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,721

    Pulpstar said:

    Who else is heading to the Finborough for the evening btw ?

    I fear it's in danger of becoming a damp squib ...... it was announced too late and really hasn't been promoted as it might have been and it's now probably too late. Most people will have made their own arrangements for GE night.
    I was thinking of it. However, I've an important job interview on Friday morning. So I'm going to have to go to bed after the exit poll comes up - then up for Today at 6.00 am. It will be the first time since 1979 that I haven't sat up all night for the results.
    Actually that's quite bizarre, not to say selfish, that your interviewer should have arranged to see you on the morning after a General Election. Presumably the individual concerned has absolutely no interest whatever in the outcome, which in its self is not a good sign.
    An American?
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    john_zims said:

    @Ssurbiton

    'The highest growth in our history. 1997 - 2008.'

    And zero growth from 2005 - 2010 the lowest in our history !

    Higher growth from 1930 - 1939 than 2000 - 2009.
  • IOSIOS Posts: 1,450
    Has anyone got the tables - I am curious to know how the breakdown for under 30's looks.
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    edited May 2015
    @Chris123

    'But Ashcroft did not identify candidates – and the Clegg name seems crucial to drawing extra support from the Conservative fold'

    Do you really believe that a week before the election which seems to have been going on forever, there were any voters in Hallam that didn't know Nick Clegg was their MP ?.

    This is the result of the Ashcroft poll showing it was close and Tory voters switching to the Lib Dems to stop Labour.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    edited May 2015
    IOS said:

    Has anyone got the tables - I am curious to know how the breakdown for under 30's looks.

    http://www.scribd.com/doc/264086543/Hallam-BPC-1
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    I suppose one irony which could be drawn from the Sheffield Hallam poll is the fact it was a Conservative seat until the Lib Dems captured it in 1997. The idea of Tories voting tactically to keep the seat Lib Dem won't be lost on anyone.

    Nick's survival is a prerequisite for Coalition 2.0 but it's by no means a done deal even if the numbers are there in the Commons (which is far from certain in my view). I said last night I feared for a potential schism in the LDs if Nick tried to bounce the Party into a second Coalition which would be as disastrous as David Steel's attempt to bounce the SDP and Liberals into merger in the aftermath of the disappointing 1987 outcome.

    Nick may think he can sell the idea of Coalition 2.0 with a couple of speeches but it's going to take a lot more than that and it may be that IF the party rejects the idea of a second Coalition, that will be the end for Nick Clegg as Party Leader. Whether that's the end of him as a Lib Dem as well is of course another question.

    Pretty much this. I'm astonished by how many Conservatives think a Conservative-LD coalition is a mere formality.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,978
    New Thread
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,509
    antifrank said:

    malcolmg said:

    calum said:

    malcolmg said:

    BBC reporting that Jim Murphy is campaigning in Glasgow with comedian Eddie Izzard..!

    Hmmm. - Not the luckiest talisman I’d have thought.

    getting a real barracking as well , and whinging that it must be the SNP, what a plank.
    As I'm following various BT hacks and supporters my Twitter went into a BT Project Fear Meltdown when Jim and Eddie were shouted at by 4 protestors. Having tracked down the footage as far as I can tell the main pushing and shoving was being done by SLAB activists, who were manhandling some chap with a loudhailer:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2015-32580153

    All I can say is before Twittering condemnation of violence on the streets of Glasgow best to view the evidence first, I guess the BT/MSM mantra of why let the facts get in the way of a story is alive and well.

    These guys have obviously never been on a night out in Glasgow or better still attended an Orange Lodge march, then they could form a better view of what constitutes violence on the streets of Glasgow.
    Murphy will try anything , you can guarantee it was stage managed. Murphy and his fake crowd as usual.
    https://twitter.com/WingsScotland/status/595235989888499712
    Hers another great pic:

    http://t.co/QrRuSXSZhs
    Clerkin does that to all politicians, has disrupted Sturgeon's surgeries several times. Extreme left winger and hates everybody , but telling that it was Labour who told him the time and the place. Murphy is really desperate.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,032
    chestnut said:

    The Pollsters Regional Swing Averages
    The South – all Con to Lab
    10.7: Ipsos Mori (six poll average)
    7.1: Survation (last six)
    6.5: Populus (last 6 -excl SW)
    6.0 Yougov (last 10)
    5.9: ICM (last six)
    5.3 Comres (last 6)
    5.0 Ashcroft (last six – excl SW)

    Midlands (incl Wales)
    6.4 Yougov
    4.0 ICM (excl wales)
    3.8 Survation (ex Wales)
    3.8 ICM (incl Wales)
    3.0 Ipsos Mori
    2.8 ICM (Wales Only)
    2.8 Populus (excl Wales)
    2.1 Ashcroft (excl wales)
    0.5 Yougov (wales Only)
    -1.3 Comres
    -1.9 Survation (Wales only)
    - 2.0 Opinium (Wales Only)

    North
    3.6 Comres
    3.6 ICM
    3.4 Yougov
    3.4 Ipsos Mori
    2.8 Populus
    2.1 Survation
    -0.7 Ashcroft

    My guess is that quite a lot of that swing, especially in the south, is because the tories have lost support to UKIP rather than any great gain in the Labour vote.

    In Scotland there are going to be massive swings from Labour to the Tories, something approaching 10%. It is by no means certain that this will win the Tories a single additional seat.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,834

    Prodicus said:

    And I agree George O has much to answer for, but look at the cards he was dealt and compare with those Brown was dealt.

    Electorally, the economic determinant for each voter will be their own micro-economy, and the rest is tractor stats. If zero-hours contracts are welcomed by voters, they'll vote one way,and if they are tools for exploitation and to disguise unemployment, those on them will vote another.

    Technically, Labour's spending before the crash was not excessive against GDP by any international or historic comparison, so even if CCHQ were to argue this, they'd lose. But they won't try because it is electorally pointless.

    Your first point is correct. The rest is a load of Balls.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    chestnut said:

    The Pollsters Regional Swing Averages
    The South – all Con to Lab
    10.7: Ipsos Mori (six poll average)
    7.1: Survation (last six)
    6.5: Populus (last 6 -excl SW)
    6.0 Yougov (last 10)
    5.9: ICM (last six)
    5.3 Comres (last 6)
    5.0 Ashcroft (last six – excl SW)

    Midlands (incl Wales)
    6.4 Yougov
    4.0 ICM (excl wales)
    3.8 Survation (ex Wales)
    3.8 ICM (incl Wales)
    3.0 Ipsos Mori
    2.8 ICM (Wales Only)
    2.8 Populus (excl Wales)
    2.1 Ashcroft (excl wales)
    0.5 Yougov (wales Only)
    -1.3 Comres
    -1.9 Survation (Wales only)
    - 2.0 Opinium (Wales Only)

    North
    3.6 Comres
    3.6 ICM
    3.4 Yougov
    3.4 Ipsos Mori
    2.8 Populus
    2.1 Survation
    -0.7 Ashcroft

    Exactly where it is needed. Labour largest party.
  • Chris123Chris123 Posts: 174

    The most important aspect of this ICM poll is that the candidates were specifically named. That is different to the Ashcroft polls and it produces a different result. If that plays out in the same way in other constituencies it could be very good news for both Tory and LibDem MPs in marginal seats; and possibly some SLab MPs, though that I doubt.

    Agree. It could make a difference in individual seats.

    One interesting thing about Sheffield Hallam is that there is another gentleman by the name of Clegg on the ballot paper - Steve Clegg of the English Democrats. If the result of the poll changes substantially only if you prompt for the name "Nick Clegg," it makes you wonder how many will place their cross next to "Steve Clegg." I, for one, am willing to punt that Steve Clegg's results will exceed expectations.
This discussion has been closed.